dotman
Footballguy
Accept that deal in a hurry...Slaton or the 1st rounder alone are each worth more than Grant or Burleson IMO, you get the 2 most valuable players in the deal.
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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
SSOG
Moderator
First off, I said it was a dramatic oversimplification meant to explain my post. Second off, I said 6/10 or higher. Third off, as I said earlier, it's hard to say which of the two is more talented because they are different backs, but I think both are among the top 5-8 talents in the league.
It's one thing to say you'd target Williams. It's another thing to say you'd trade Brown or Greene for Williams. Would you give up a top-half-of-the-round first round pick for Ricky Williams under any circumstances?
But again, that ignores the points I made earlier. In a vacuum, there might be a situation where Greene-for-Williams makes sense... but no one operates in a vacuum. In the real world, Greene could command much more than Williams, and Williams could be had for much less than Greene.It's like if you're convinced that Shonn Greene is going to break every single scoring record in the history of fantasy football... you still wouldn't trade Adrian Peterson for him.
Cut Betts. He's not going to do anything for you this year (he's worse going forward, imo, than Rice, Jacobs, *AND* Moreno), and he's not going to do anything for you in the future (he's 30 and a career backup).
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
I actually agree. I was addressing the UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES comment from earlier.
mikel2014
Footballguy
All three of my players involved had great days. Stafford's 422 yard, 5 TD performance was pretty impressive, but it looked like he hurt his shoulder badly. With Grant and Burleson, I basically know what I'm getting. Slaton and Stafford are boom/bust players. I'm leaning towards accepting. Do you think Slaton is the franchise back for the Texans?
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, I understand that concept. There's a slight premium on winning now vs. winning tomorrow for the reasons you mentioned. Nevertheless, future value is a critical component of any player's dynasty worth. When you make a "win now" type of maneuver it is often at the expense of winning tomorrow. From my experience teams that make short-sighted deals almost always live to regret it. Real life example: a couple years ago I was in a dynasty startup draft. I traded up into the top 6 in order to guarantee myself a shot at Reggie Bush or Maurice Jones-Drew. Brian Westbrook ended up slipping to my pick. He was the top scoring RB by a wide margin the year before. I knew he probably only had 1-2 years left, but his 30 ppg would give me a great shot to make a title run right now. I picked him. 2nd round comes along. I'm targeting Calvin Johnson, but guess what? Randy Moss falls to my pick. He was a monster the year before. Yea, I know he's old, but teaming him up with Westbrook would make me the heavy favorite to win the league. I picked him. What happens?
Westbrook and Moss have mediocre seasons. My team makes the playoffs, but fails to advance. The Eagles draft McCoy. Westbrook gets hurt again and is now worthless. Moss bounces back, but Calvin is producing similar short term numbers with a much better long term outlook. I now regret passing on the younger talent so I could "win now." My team is still pretty good, but it would be vastly superior with MJD and Calvin (or even Reggie and Calvin).
I've seen many, many teams suffer from myopic thinking. Trade Chris Johnson for Brian Westbrook? Sure. Trade Larry Johnson for Reuben Droughns? Sure. Trade Roddy White for Jamal Lewis? Sure. Trade Shonn Greene for Ricky Williams? Sure. Make the "win now" move. Just don't be surprised when you "lose later."
Maybe. Maybe not. We don't know who Shonn Greene is as an NFL player. He could be the next Marion Barber, Michael Turner, or Frank Gore.
You can't assume he's going to be a star, but you can't ignore the possibility. High picks sitting behind aging starters have a habit of ascending in value.
I think this is poor reasoning. I'll use a real life example to show why. Let's say you're really hungry. Someone offers to sell you a cheeseburger for $200. $200 happens to be your daily income. Does the fact that you're going to make another $200 tomorrow somehow change the fact that $200 is a complete ripoff for a cheeseburger? Obviously not.
The fact that you could potentially get a prospect of equal value to Shonn Greene in the 2010 doesn't mean you should give away Shonn Greene for less than he's worth. The only relevant question is whether or not Shonn Greene has more dynasty value to your team than Ricky Williams.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Back in 2007, after week 6 I made a trade that now looks absolutely terrible. I traded Wes Welker, who I picked up after week 2, for Earnest Graham. Up to that point, Welker had 1 very good game and wasn't thought of as a stud. I owned Cadillac who went down week 4, Larry Johnson who eventually went down week 9 or 10, Jamal Lewis (his good year in Cleveland), Sammy Morris who went down week 6, worthless Foster and DeAngelo who wasn't getting many carries. I was 3-3. Scoring in that league is 1/20 with 3 point bonus at 100 yards, 6 for td's, 9 for 40+ yard td's. Graham helped me win the Championship and I won it again last year. I wish I had Welker now, but wouldn't have won in 2007 without Graham.
SSOG
Moderator
That's a great story, but as I said, it's not like a championship is guaranteed with Williams, or that no championship is guaranteed without Williams. It's good that that trade wound up working out for you, but if you continued to make that trade (or variations of it), you'd soon wind up with a roster incapable of winning a game, to say nothing of a championship.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't want him on my roster, so I don't value him highly. I wouldn't want to be left holding the bag when his value drains next time he gets arrested, or even worse.MountainMan0726
Footballguy
I received the following Dynasty League Trade offer (keep all players year to year, my team and rules in sig):
His
Sidney Rice + 1st Rd. Pick 2010 (currently pick 1.03)
for My
LeSean McCoy + 2nd Rd. Pick 2010 (currently pick 2.03)
My thoughts: I've built a fantastic/deep roster over the past 2 years, with a large amount of credit due to this wonderful thread and rankings. My focus has been on upgrading my WR3 or 4, and the more I research Rice the more I gotta own him. Great size, ball skills, work ethic (offseason with Fitz/Rice/Carter), and still has upside at age 23. His owner must have a RB in return, and after I told him that my other 5 RB's were too expensive, he sent me this offer. This would leave me with a great top 4 set of WR, and still be 5 quality deep at RB. And the 3rd pick (if that holds up over the remaining schedule - it is more likely to get worse than better) I'd be assured of grabbing one of the top positional players.
1) Is McCoy the RB to deal out of my 6?
2) Is this a reasonable exchange of value, or is one side getting substantially more?
Thanks.
His
Sidney Rice + 1st Rd. Pick 2010 (currently pick 1.03)
for My
LeSean McCoy + 2nd Rd. Pick 2010 (currently pick 2.03)
My thoughts: I've built a fantastic/deep roster over the past 2 years, with a large amount of credit due to this wonderful thread and rankings. My focus has been on upgrading my WR3 or 4, and the more I research Rice the more I gotta own him. Great size, ball skills, work ethic (offseason with Fitz/Rice/Carter), and still has upside at age 23. His owner must have a RB in return, and after I told him that my other 5 RB's were too expensive, he sent me this offer. This would leave me with a great top 4 set of WR, and still be 5 quality deep at RB. And the 3rd pick (if that holds up over the remaining schedule - it is more likely to get worse than better) I'd be assured of grabbing one of the top positional players.
1) Is McCoy the RB to deal out of my 6?
2) Is this a reasonable exchange of value, or is one side getting substantially more?
Thanks.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
No one has come even close to saying you should continue to sell youth for older players. They're saying Ricky Williams is the ideal Dynasty league target for owners trying to win a championship this season. It's one trade, not a blueprint for future deals. Of course it would be stupid to run your whole roster that way. I'm operating under the assumption that the owner dealing Shonn Greene has a balanced young nucleus and can afford to swing for the fences.
EBF
Footballguy
Interesting dilemma. I have Sidney Rice on a few of my teams. Liked him well enough coming out of South Carolina. He's tall and he has ridiculous coordination/hands. My only caveat is a lack of great speed/strength/quickness. He's not a burner or a great route runner. He's a jump ball guy. I wish he ran better, but it's hard to argue with the results. Is he the real deal long term? I don't know to be honest. He's someone I'll consider as a "sell high" candidate in the offseason, but I certainly think he has the potential to be a steady long term contributor. Sort of a poor man's Fitzgerald. Then you have McCoy. I think he has looked pretty good since donning Eagles colors. I was worried about his wretched combine performance in the offseason, but I like what I've seen of him in the NFL. Westbrook has become a liability and the Philly system is perfect for LeSean's skill set. I don't see any reason to think he can't take over that workhorse role and become a PPR monster. He's not someone I'd be looking to deal in a dynasty right now.
So what do you do? I think this is an interesting deal for you because you have great RB depth and because the 1st/2nd round pick swap is very appealing. I think you can make a strong case for accepting this trade, but take a hard look at your RB group and try to figure out who's expendable. I'm kinda thinking McCoy might have a better long term outlook than Moreno, but it's not a closed case at this point.
Anyhow, I would swap Moreno for McCoy and see if he accepts that. I'm not yet convinced that Rice is the real deal, but you need WRs more than you need RBs and the difference in value between Rice and Moreno is outweighed by the difference in value between the 2nd/1st round rookie picks. If he doesn't bite the Moreno bait then you've got a tough decision on your hands.
editor47
Footballguy
SSOG
Moderator
I agree that Ricky is an ideal target, but he's hardly the only possible target out there. There are enough other options out there that if Ricky's owner insists on getting way more than Ricky is worth, you can just go elsewhere. As I said, Ricky's the kind of player for whom it is a buyer's market, so don't let the seller dictate the terms.
1) Yes2) One side is getting substantially more, but I wouldn't complain too much, since you're on the side making out like a bandit. LeSean for the 1.03 pick is probably a wash, and Rice for a 2nd is a steal.
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EBF
Footballguy
Greene was the 65th pick in the draft. That's a high pick. Some other RBs of note drafted within 10 spots of 65:55 - Ray Rice 2008
60 - Maurice Jones-Drew 2006
64 - Kevin Smith 2008
65 - Frank Gore 2005
I don't think it would be very wise to write someone off because he was "only" a top 65 pick.
editor47
Footballguy
just to be clear:
1) i am not writing off greene
2) 3rd round is not high. its a risk. its not someone who is viewed as a first-round talent. there are questions about everyone of those guys. there were questions about rice and jones-drews size. there were questions about gore's health. smith did it against weak competition.
3) i would trade shonn greene for ricky williams if i was in the hunt; not if i was the favorite.
i'll take the evaluation of the jets' season-ticket holder in my league who didn't even draft greene in the first round. he likes him. but he's not sure he's full-time material.
1) i am not writing off greene
2) 3rd round is not high. its a risk. its not someone who is viewed as a first-round talent. there are questions about everyone of those guys. there were questions about rice and jones-drews size. there were questions about gore's health. smith did it against weak competition.
3) i would trade shonn greene for ricky williams if i was in the hunt; not if i was the favorite.
i'll take the evaluation of the jets' season-ticket holder in my league who didn't even draft greene in the first round. he likes him. but he's not sure he's full-time material.
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
The Jets traded up to pick him as their #2 pick and claimed he was the #1 RB on their board. Would you be saying the same things if they had taken him in the 2nd?Why would you take the evaluation of that person? Did his season tickets get him into the combine or a private workout of Greene? Im guessing no, so the reality is that your buddy saw 0 snaps of Greene in a Jets uniform and 0 snaps of a Ryan-led Jets team before your rookie draft. Just like the rest of us.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I am not a Greene fan; he doesn't pass the eye test for me. Therefore, I would trade him for Ricky in a heartbeat if I really needed a RB to win this year. Maybe Greene will pan out and I'll be wrong, but in the end, I'm going to trust my judgment and if it's wrong, it's wrong. I have a higher opinion of Brown and would not trade him straight up for Williams.
I would not trade an elite talent in a deal like this, but a lower tier player? Absolutely.
Another point...I'd like to think I am good enough at managing my teams and finding talent to be able to make deals like this. In the end, I want to win now, but I am not going to mortgage my future to do so. I don't think trading a player like Greene means I am giving up on the future, but I am not as high on him as some of you are. I think he is replaceable. I'd like to believe I will continue to upgrade my roster and add young talent every year, which, if true, allows me to take a chance on deals like the above.
I know this is dynasty and I am huge on collecting young potential studs. I also think if you have a real chance to win and need one last piece, you should go for it if you can afford to make the deal.
I would not trade an elite talent in a deal like this, but a lower tier player? Absolutely.
Another point...I'd like to think I am good enough at managing my teams and finding talent to be able to make deals like this. In the end, I want to win now, but I am not going to mortgage my future to do so. I don't think trading a player like Greene means I am giving up on the future, but I am not as high on him as some of you are. I think he is replaceable. I'd like to believe I will continue to upgrade my roster and add young talent every year, which, if true, allows me to take a chance on deals like the above.
I know this is dynasty and I am huge on collecting young potential studs. I also think if you have a real chance to win and need one last piece, you should go for it if you can afford to make the deal.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
I agree with you, but if there's no other food to be had for $200 or less and the cheeseburger makes the difference between starving to death or living, you buy that burger. Don't believe me? Check the prices on scarce items in times of natural disasters. I assume you can get another player performing this year for Greene or less but maybe not. Just saying there are times you overpay for things willingly.
It's a bad analogy. The person to whom EBF is responding says there "is" a Shonn Greene in every draft. EBF says there is "potentially" a Shonn Greene draft. The problem is a disagreement in how good Greene is, not a failure to understand the value of a player about whom they have the same opinion about. That's how I see it at least.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Is there a standard rule of thumb when trading current year draft picks for future picks? This draft class is not wowing me, and I'm considering moving a few of my first round picks for 2010 picks. I would appreciate hearing from those who have used this strategy in the past. It would be a first for me.
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Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
The best time to trade picks is right before, or during the draft. That's when the rookie hype is at its peak and thus when the picks have their highest value.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Yes, I understand when the best time to trade draft picks is. Perhaps I should be more clear..... if I decide to trade a 2009 1st round pick, and I think I can receive a comparable 1st in 2010, then should I expect to receive a 1st & 2nd round pick in 2010, a 1st & 3rd, etc. ?
FUBAR
Footballguy
First, I agree with the first poster who stated there is a Greene in every draft - not literally of course, but find me a draft where there were no decent RB prospects outside of the top 4 FF picks. Is Greene really that different than Chris Brown, Justin Fargas, Mendenhall, Brandon Jackson, Maroney, LenDale White, Norwood, Arrington, Shelton, Gore... etc? Sure we disagree on how good Greene is but I don't think that's even the point here, as if you think he's a legit future stud I wouldn't trade him but if we can all agree that he's a rookie RB with potential to be a lead back, we can have a better understanding of his real value instead of getting emotions attached. FWIW, I think that's the better way to analyze players anyway, forget for a second that you liked them in college or for whatever reason their name, and place them in a category/tier with others of relative equal values. Maybe you're right though and one guy sees Greene as a stud while the other sees him as I do, a decent prospect but not exceptional.
FUBAR
Footballguy
It depends on the league and year. I could have gotten 2009 1sts and 2nds a lot cheaper than 2008 1sts and 2nds. Heck, at one point I could have traded my 2010 1st straight for an equal 2009 1st but I balked, just didn't see the need/value there. FWIW, the player would have been Sanchez and I'm not sorry I didn't do it. 2008 1sts went for a lot more and I suspect 2010 picks will as well. In fact, 2009 picks were discounted in many of my leagues after the NFL draft but maybe that's just because the 2010 class looked more promising. In general, I'd trade a late 1st now for a potentially higher 1st next year, 2nd for 2nd and either a decent player or 3rd, from 3rd on I'd go with "n-1" meaning a 3rd for a next year 2nd, etc.
kremenull
Footballguy
I just don't see it.....In the last two classes alone, I couldn't rank this guy in the top 12 or so ahead of (in no particular order)R.Rice
C.Johnson
F.Jones
S.Slaton
L.McCoy
B.Wells
K.Moreno
M.Forte
D.Brown
D.McFadden
R.Mendenhall
J.Stewart
Not to mention the existing talent already producing at a high level (Peterson, Gore, S-Jax, MJD, etc.) along with the soon-to-be entering stud talent (Spiller, Dwyer, Mathews, Best).
As of right now, I'd place this guy in a vast pool of guys who will have to really step up to earn a top ranking, some are on this first list, but Greene hasn't shown that he is anything but amongst this deep group. Guys like Maroney, PierreT, Ronnie Brown, K.Smith, Lynch, Charles, etc. There will be lots of competition for Top 12-20 RB spots going forward......pretty much a crapshoot who fills out the bottom 10-12 of the Top 20 (Ranks #8-20), IMO.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Exactly what I've been saying. Thomas Jones has played the best football of his career for the past two years, and there's a good chance Greene won't be a weekly fantasy option until 2011. Even then, he could be splitting time with Leon Washington. Is that "prospect" worth more to me than a good shot at a championship? Nah, I can replace Shonn Greene.
corpcow
Footballguy
Exactly what I've been saying... The other thing is, in dynasty, I don't think you can completely ignore context and treat players only with their absolute value. The role and importance of a player on one roster can be totally different from a different roster. In this case, he already had 4-5 young backs (including 3 of the top rookies this year) - so Green was less valuable. If he had an aging RB corps and was depending on Green to be his future, then it's a different story. In many ways, this is the same dynamic of trading depth for an upgrade at a particular position... you're trading one of your strengths (future RB potential) to address a weakness (RB performance this year). As I said and has been said before, I probably wouldn't trade Brown for Ricky, but I would almost definitely sell Green.Exactly what I've been saying. Thomas Jones has played the best football of his career for the past two years, and there's a good chance Greene won't be a weekly fantasy option until 2011. Even then, he could be splitting time with Leon Washington. Is that "prospect" worth more to me than a good shot at a championship? Nah, I can replace Shonn Greene.
SSOG
Moderator
This argument confuses the point, though. Greene didn't pass the eye test for you, so he's undoubtedly not on your roster. If he was on your roster, then that would mean he passed the eye test for you. If someone owns Greene, then that means that that person believed in Greene at some point strongly enough to take him in the middle of the first round. If you don't believe in him that strongly, then substitute his name for the name of another guy you would have taken with the 1.06 pick in your rookie draft and see if you would have done the trade. Or just use the pick itself. Would you trade the 1.06 rookie pick for Ricky Williams? If someone valued a player (let's call him "Donn Breene") at the 1.06 rookie pick, and Donn Breene had done nothing to warrant a lessening of opinion (in fact, Donn had produced very well in his only real opportunity), then would you recommend that the person in question trade Donn Breene for Ricky Williams?It's one thing if you spent a mid-2nd on Shonn Greene, but if you drafted him in the first round, then you shouldn't be trading him for Ricky.
There's nothing wrong with trading Shonn Greene. Like you said, he's replaceable. There's something wrong with getting tunnel vision for a 32 year old RB and overpaying for him when there are other "win-now" RBs out there that will serve you just as well for a fraction of the cost (starting with Tomlinson and Thomas Jones). As I've been saying, if a last place owner has Ricky Williams, he's going to be a lot more motivated to sell than you should be to buy. You're bargaining from a position of power.Fantasy football isn't a binary game- the question isn't "Ricky or no one". There are limitless possibilities. If one possibility doesn't represent value, then it's in your best interest to forget it and find another that does.Exactly what I've been saying. Thomas Jones has played the best football of his career for the past two years, and there's a good chance Greene won't be a weekly fantasy option until 2011. Even then, he could be splitting time with Leon Washington. Is that "prospect" worth more to me than a good shot at a championship? Nah, I can replace Shonn Greene.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You're missing my point. When I make trades like this, I go and get the player that I have targeted -- not players who might fit into a similar category based on age and past history. I haven't targeted Tomlinson or Jones because I don't trust them down the stretch. I absolutely trust Ricky down the stretch this season, and I expect him to outperform both Tomlinson and Jones. What I've been saying all along is that for Weeks 12-17 of 2009, Ricky Williams is a difference maker.
editor47
Footballguy
he's the no. 3 WR on a pass-happy team. he can put up the best numbers on the team one week, then be invisible the next.Jason Avantespite Maclin's uptick, Avant seems to be getting a lot of playing time.What's the take on this kid moving forward?
corpcow
Footballguy
I think it's worth stating that this isn't always the case. Sometimes, value drives those decisions. There are times where I took a player I wasn't in love with because he had the most value of those available at that spot. This probably means I was shopping the pick, but if I do have to pick I will usually take the player with the most perceived value there, just with the intention of trying to trade him later.SSOG said:
He is a possession receiver for Philly. He is playing in the WR3 (#5 target overall behind Celek and RB) slot. I wouldn't get too excited. He doesn't really possess strong enough physical traits to go past where he is now in the pecking order imo.Jason Avant
kremenull
Footballguy
Since when is a 6'4" 200+ lb. guy who runs a about a 4.5 flat (or better) and has great athleticism a bad thing? I harken back to what Fitzgerald said about this guy when Fitz said that Rice is more athletic than he is. I think Rice appears to not be running all that fast due to his height but in many of the clips that I have recently seen he is blowing by defenders rather routinely. I think this guy has some serious talent and people may not truly appreciating it. If he is a "sell high", I doubt it is because of his ability but it would be due to the outlook of the QB position in Minny going forward.EBF said:
The way things stand right now, Rice looks to be headed for stardom. All he probably needs is a competent QB under center for the next few years. I'd HOLD.....
Well.... You are still holding "Snacks" Slaton so you I guess are getting used to holding...
BigJim®
Footballguy
Rice has certainly demostrated his ability to get well above defenders (even had 2 nice on-side kick recoveries earlier in the season). He just finds a way to get to a higher point than others are capable of, but he is showing other receiving skills like unique vision tracking a deep ball and showing good movement after the catch for extra yards. Right now he's 7th in scoring in my league and the jump balls only account for a small fraction of his total points. Most of the production is just typical WR production.
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EBF
Footballguy
Boom. SSOG always gets it. I like to look at my dynasty rosters in terms of overall talent. What matters initially isn't so much the distribution of that overall talent, but the sum total. It's conceivable that drafting 18 QBs with your 18 picks in an 18 round dynasty startup could be the correct move. Why? Because rosters aren't locked. They're fluid. You don't need to draft a starting lineup. You can trade for one. You can convert those QB assets into WR/RB/TE assets, so there's really no need to take a value loss just to "fill a need."To use a more reasonable example, let's say you're on the clock in the 8th round of a dynasty startup draft. So far you've taken 2 QBs, 1 RB, 3 WRs, and 1 TE. You badly need to plug your RB2 hole, but the only RBs left on the board are Stacey Mack and Troy Hambrick. Meanwhile you see a young QB named Tom Brady sitting there in the player pool. You're already stocked at QB, but you think Brady has superstar potential and you decide he's easily the best player left. Do you draft Hambrick over Brady simply to fill a need? Of course not. You take Brady knowing that you'll eventually be able to trade him for a RB much better than Hambrick or Mack.This is a self-serving example because the RBs involved in this example both failed miserably and the QB turned out to be a Hall of Famer. When you're sitting on the clock in a draft you never know exactly how things will play out. You might have a strong hunch that Mack will bust, but maybe you also felt that way about Ahman Green. You might have a strong hunch that Brady will be a star, but maybe you felt that way about Tim Couch. You never really know how things will play out (even if you have strong suspicions).The point of this tangent is that overall value considerations (rather than short term need) should drive most of your personnel decisions in dynasty leagues. Let's say you're sitting there with Shonn Greene at the bottom of a deep RB roster that includes 6 superior long term options. Meanwhile your starting WRs are Brian Finneran and Dwayne Jarrett. Someone offers you Michael Jenkins for Shonn Greene. Should you take this deal? I would say no. Jenkins upgrades your starting lineup and increases your chances of winning the league, but Greene for Jenkins is a massive value dump. You could get a better value for Greene at some point now or in the future. Roster composition should certainly be a consideration in your decision making process because it partially determines a player's practical value, but overall value should still be the driving factor. He who compiles the most overall value on his dynasty roster wins because he can readily convert that overall value into practical value. The main reason I don't like the Greene/Ricky trade is because I think it's a long term value dump. Yes, Ricky might have more practical value for the next month, but I don't think that excuses taking one in the pants. If I found myself in a similar situation I would try to balance the deal either by finding a younger RB to trade for or by insisting that the Ricky owner sandwich a 2nd round rookie pick into the deal in order to help offset the loss in long term value. The point of this argument isn't that Shonn Greene is destined for stardom. The point is that (based on historical trends) he has something like a 30-35% chance of becoming a quality NFL starter. If you give that up for a player with a 80-90% chance of improving your team for the next 4-5 weeks, you're dumping long term value. Find a better deal or stand pat.SSOG said:
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I understand this argument. But, I think that if you feel that Ricky puts you over the top and wins you the league you do the deal. It may be a long term deal that isn't in your favor, but FFB changes so much from year to year that a win this year would make up for it to me.This is of course only if you think that Ricky GIVES you a championship this year. F&L is endorsing Ricky as that kind of a RB1 difference maker this year. (or thats how I read it) So, if I was close to a championship, I'd trade Greene and his future for my win now. But, that is just me. (I'd do it quick too)
Regarding the "Greene for Ricky" debate:
Again, I still can't see a scenario where you can justify dealing what amounts to the 1.06 pick straight up for a 32 year-old running back who had a value factor near zero just 11 weeks ago. Basically, I couldn't agree more with everything SSOG has said regarding this debate. Just as there's no gaurantee that Greene will pan out, there's also no guarantee that Ricky will make any difference in your run for a title. I'd much rather run the risk of my 24 year-old mid-1st round pick not panning out than I would hoping that a 32 year-old Ricky vs Player X in my lineup is the difference in whether or not I win a title this year.
That being said, I'm excited to see how Ricky closes the year and how his performance the last 5 (or 6 depending upon when your championship game falls) weeks supports either side of this discussion. This is obviously one example of many situations that could be discussed similar to this, but the amount of varying opinions has me extremely interested to see how this instance plays out.
Again, I still can't see a scenario where you can justify dealing what amounts to the 1.06 pick straight up for a 32 year-old running back who had a value factor near zero just 11 weeks ago. Basically, I couldn't agree more with everything SSOG has said regarding this debate. Just as there's no gaurantee that Greene will pan out, there's also no guarantee that Ricky will make any difference in your run for a title. I'd much rather run the risk of my 24 year-old mid-1st round pick not panning out than I would hoping that a 32 year-old Ricky vs Player X in my lineup is the difference in whether or not I win a title this year.
That being said, I'm excited to see how Ricky closes the year and how his performance the last 5 (or 6 depending upon when your championship game falls) weeks supports either side of this discussion. This is obviously one example of many situations that could be discussed similar to this, but the amount of varying opinions has me extremely interested to see how this instance plays out.
one time
Footballguy
Just for an example, I have Rodgers, Lynch, Portis/Sproles/M Bush, VJax, Jennings, MSW/Smiff, Gates, etc on one of my teams. I have the best QB, a top WR core, but nothing at RB, especially RB #2. I am the #2 seed and have a chance to get a bye.
I would no brainer trade a Greene for RW in that that trade gives me an additional 10-15 points per week and gives me a MUCH better chance at the championship, especially with a first round bye looming for me. Otherwise Greene will just sit on my roster collecting dust for atleast another year and maybe in 2 years when he's 26 he has a CHANCE to crack my starting line up.
If you have little at at least one RB slot and are stacked other places, Ricky is an amazing target. Granted you want to try to get him as cheap as possible but IF it took greene, I would do it.
I would no brainer trade a Greene for RW in that that trade gives me an additional 10-15 points per week and gives me a MUCH better chance at the championship, especially with a first round bye looming for me. Otherwise Greene will just sit on my roster collecting dust for atleast another year and maybe in 2 years when he's 26 he has a CHANCE to crack my starting line up.
If you have little at at least one RB slot and are stacked other places, Ricky is an amazing target. Granted you want to try to get him as cheap as possible but IF it took greene, I would do it.
EBF
Footballguy
Many an owner has used this reasoning when reaching for a clearly-declining Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, or LaDainian Tomlinson in the early rounds of a dynasty startup when young nucleus players are still available. "Yeah I know he's 400 years old and he's probably only going to play for 3 more weeks before his skeleton turns to dust, but...I could win the title this year!" It could work out. Just saying...I've been playing dynasty for about 6-7 years now and I've seen many deals of this variety take place (even made a few myself). What usually happens is the big acquisition doesn't make the impact his owner anticipated and the owner eventually regrets sacrificing long term value for a stop-gap solution. You can call it a "win now" move. I like my new term "lose later." I think the overall value equation favors the prospect side of the deal by a wide margin. Trust me, you don't want to be the guy who gives up Frank Gore or Ray Rice for a 32 year old RB. Is there a best-case scenario that favors the Ricky side of the deal? Sure. Ricky could win you the title this year and Greene could flop miserably ala Musa Smith. Not far-fetched.
This, in a nutshell, is the key to me. There is no such thing as a guaranteed championhip in fantasy football. The playoffs are far too much of a crapshoot to hope that a deal like this makes any sort of difference for you for five weeks this year, no matter how dominant your team is. And that's what it boils down to. The risk/reward of obtaining a 32 year-old RB who'll more than likely only give you 5-6 more weeks of significant production in his career over the long-term prospects of a young RB who may give you 5-6 seasons of the same. Let's put it this way, how much do you think starting Ricky in your lineup over Player X changes your odds of winning a title this year? 5%? 10%? 25%? 50%? It obviously depends significantly on who Player X is, but I'm on the 5% end of the spectrum. I just think that it'll be rare that the margin in Ricky's weekly performance vs Player X's is greater than the margin of your weekly outcomes during your playoff weeks. To me, that's not a risk you take in a dynasty league.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Not really the point. Ricky isn't a fair price for Shonn Greene just like Michael Jenkins isn't a fair price for Shonn Greene. Either pay less for Ricky or pay more for a more valuable option (Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, etc).
Why is it such a forgone conclusion that Ricky Williams will only contribute 5-6 more weeks of usefulness over his career? Sure, he may only be an RB1 over the remaining 5-6 weeks of this season, but I'm struggling to find what has everyone so sure he will be a complete waste of a roster space next year? While Ronnie Brown was still active and playing at the peak of his abilities this season, Ricky was at the very worst an every week flex play, and was actually much closer to a high end RB2 every week. Sure, he's 32, but he also plays in a VERY running back friendly offense, shares the load (or even more accurately, takes somewhat of a backseat) with an elite level running back in Ronnie Brown saving much wear and tear on his body, and appears to have his life straightened out and has repeatedly talked about how he wants to play football for quite some time yet. I think it is actually more likely that he performs as an RB1 down the stretch this season and then goes back to being a decent RB2 or Flex play for the bulk of next season, given everything he has working in his favor.At the same time, Shonn Green is almost assuredly going to be stuck behind Thomas Jones on the depth chart again next year (and that doesn't even touch on Leon Washington's potential return). This likely means he again will see very sparse carries and won't have any value as a weekly play at all (not RB1, not RB2, not even Flex). So really, we aren't just talking about a 5-6 week rental when trading Ricky Williams for Shonn Green, you are realistically talking about a massive upgrade for the remaining 5-6 weeks this season plus a solid upgrade for a full season next year. With that in mind, I think this is a relative no brainer- if you are in the title hunt and feel another top level running back would put you over the edge, you make this deal every time. Sure, it would always be nice to pay the minimum possible to acquire talent, but if you can't get the owner to bite, Shonn Green is not an overly expensive price to pay. Shonn Greene has shown nothing to make anyone believe he is a transcendent talent (we haven't seen anything to really believe he is every down starter material yet, for that matter), nor is it even close to assured he will EVER be useful as a RB1, RB2, or Flex, this year, next year, or beyond. The value is about right- the equivalent of a 1.06 draft pick (in a relatively weak draft class) for a solid upgrade for 1 and 1/3 season.
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one time
Footballguy
EBF, the main problem I see here is that 1)Faulk/Holes/Barber/LT a year or two before their demise cost either a 1st or 2nd round pick in a start up league. In this instant, they are meant to be your nucleus. If you are trading Greene for RW, you are trading a spare part with potential. You only do this if you are on the cusp and really need something to put you over. No one is advocating trading a Chris Johnson for LT at the beginning of this year because you think LT will give you a good shot at the title this year. We are saying trade away a mid-late 1st round pick if you need a push at RB.2) You talk about giving up Frank Gore or Ray Rice for RW but that is using the one or two instances where this trade could backfire where and there is a much better chance that a mid-late 1st round pick busts than becomes a top 5 RB. I really think last years amazing crop of Rookie RBs is really making some biased opinions. I went back the past few years in my Dynasty league and these were all the 1.4-1.10 draft picks Brandon Jackson, JaMarcus Russell, Anthony Gonzalez, Robert Meachem, Michael Bush, Kenny Irons, Tedi Ginn|||LenDale White, Laurence Maroney, Matt Leinert, Vince Young, Vernon Davis, Jerious Norwood, Chad Jackson|||Cedric Benson, Eric Shelton, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson, Mark Clayton, Ryan Moats.||| Fitzgerald, Julius Jones, Reggie Williams, Kellen Winslow, Eli Manning, Tatum Bell, Michael Clayton||| Justin Fargas, Carson Palmer, Willis McGahee, Byron Leftwich, Andre Johnson, Larry Johnson, Labrandon Toefield.The only people I would not trade for RW right now (not even accounting for the fact that some of these rookies you had to wait 1-2 years on before they showed up) would be Vernon Davis, Cedric Benson, Braylon Edwards, Fitzgerald, Kellen Winslow, Eli Manning, Palmer, Andre Johnson, (Larry johnson recently lost value but had a really good few year span). 9/40 picks wound up being nearly worthless. Notice that there is only 1-2 RB in 14 total picked that I would not trade a championship for. Benson you would have dropped when he was out of the league and Johnson is worthless now.WRs have a MUCH better hit rate than RBs at that point in the draft.
one time
Footballguy
This IS the point though because RW has the ability to put you over the top. Let me put it this way. If you were doing a redraft for the last few weeks of the season, RW would go in the first or second round. Jenkins would be lucky to get drafted at ALL. Your comparison is a terrible one as it does nothing for this year.A better comparison would be for Hines Ward. Ward is a top WR this year but his outlook is bleak. Derrick Mason is another good target but a few tiers below Ward. Would I trade Greene for Ward if I had Jarrett and Finneran starting and thought Ward put me over the top? Yes 100/100 times.
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That's assuming that you're replacing Shonn Greene with Ricky Williams in your lineup, when in fact if you feel you're one piece away from a championship then it's probably not Shonn Greene who's production Ricky will supplant in your lineup. I think the odds are extremely remote that substituting Ricky over your worst current RB or Flex will make the difference in whether your walk away with a title this year. If you did deal Greene for Williams, then I'm assuming that your end result will many more times than not mirror what your result would've been without making a deal of this sort. You either win the title and would've without Ricky, or your lose it and would've without Ricky. Then following this season you're hoping that a 33 year-old Ricky can give you any sort of starter-worthy production next year. After that, it's a near certainty that a 34 year-old Ricky, or any RB for that matter, is going to give you nothing. So the price for the off chance that Ricky is your difference maker this year is pick 1.05-1.07 in a rookie draft? No thanks.
one time
Footballguy
So you would never EVER trade JaMarcus Russell, Anthony Gonzalez, Robert Meachem, Laurence Maroney, Matt Leinert, Vince Young, Eric Shelton, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Julius Jones, Reggie Williams, Kellen Winslow, Carson Palmer, Willis McGahee, or Byron Leftwich if you had a crummy RB #2 and had a good shot at the title? Rookie picks, if not top 3, are VERY over-valued. The best time to trade them is while people still have last years amazing class in mind.
