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Yeah, he fell down immediately...forward, and the DB hit the ground before he did. Nobody is saying the guy is a bruiser, but he lowered his shoulder and got an extra yard out of it. I dont see any more power from the guy you have been pimping all offseason. Jones and his 4.49 forty and 8 bench reps is more of a situational back than Johnson, IMO.
Let's not let hyperbole get in the way of logic. Not questioning Brown's durability, as mentioned in the original post, but last year he didn't get injured, IIRC, unitl a Week 6 ankle injury. He had a HUGE opening game last year, but even despite that success, my impression was that the Titans seemed banked on leaning on LenDale through their next three games even before Brown was hurt.
As a Bills homer i did watch Lynch break his fair share, but it is not as if he does it on a consistent basis. As a matter of fact, the only guy i can say i saw do it with some sort of consistency was MBIII. I am not totally disagreeing with you, power is not really one of Chris Johnsons strengths, i am just saying it is not bad enough where i think it will be too detrimental to him be successful as a NFL back.
Seriously are you blind or a homer?
Switz would be a much better poster if he didnt let his bias get in the way. Which i guess is the case for most people on this board, but Switz is one of the worse.
I love when people base their opinions on a couple exercises at the combine and ignore a couple years of film. That's how you draft a Michael Bennett and miss on a Ladainian Tomlinson or Emmitt Smith.
I like him a lot too in a PPR league. Seems like Reggie Bush lite to me, just faster.I did not "base" my opinion on his combine, but neither Johnson nor Jones are going to be running many defenders over. I dont doubt Jones plays faster than his 4.49, but when it comes to outrunning defenders, i will take Johnson over Jones. Both guys have a very similar skill set to me, i just think Johnson has less competition for touches, so i prefer him to Jones. I also do like the fact that Johnsons combine numbers were far superior to Jones.
I love when people base their opinions on a couple exercises at the combine and ignore a couple years of film. That's how you draft a Michael Bennett and miss on a Ladainian Tomlinson or Emmitt Smith.
Unfortunately most of Felix Jones highlights are of him blowing by people with his "4.49" speed...
Felix vs LSU - 0:46, notice how the DB ends up on the ground while Felix does not. He runs through the contact, and is forced out of bounds, but he doesn't go down. Nice run at 3:20 where he powers his way into the end zone a well.
I will add there are quite a few times on this where Felix gets tackled for a loss, but there are at least two defenders each time. My big concern is his balance in traffic, as the one knock I see is that a lot of leg tackles either bring him down, or set him up off balance so another player gets him down.
With Chris Johnson, I just don't really see much power at all. He's light, doesn't really run through tackles, can't even push a guy 3 yards when hit.I like him a lot too in a PPR league. Seems like Reggie Bush lite to me, just faster.
There is a huge difference between those runs andjwinston2 said:
Are you watching what your posting? Mendenhall didn't run thru anyone in the first 2 minutes, he broke one leg tackle but certainly didn't drop his shoulder and power through anyone.
So are you more or less excited about Chris Johnson than you are about, say, Tim Hightower?Burning Sensation said:I did not "base" my opinion on his combine, but neither Johnson nor Jones are going to be running many defenders over. I dont doubt Jones plays faster than his 4.49, but when it comes to outrunning defenders, i will take Johnson over Jones. Both guys have a very similar skill set to me, i just think Johnson has less competition for touches, so i prefer him to Jones. I also do like the fact that Johnsons combine numbers were far superior to Jones.switz said:Burning Sensation said:
Unfortunately most of Felix Jones highlights are of him blowing by people with his "4.49" speed...
Felix vs LSU - 0:46, notice how the DB ends up on the ground while Felix does not. He runs through the contact, and is forced out of bounds, but he doesn't go down. Nice run at 3:20 where he powers his way into the end zone a well.
I will add there are quite a few times on this where Felix gets tackled for a loss, but there are at least two defenders each time. My big concern is his balance in traffic, as the one knock I see is that a lot of leg tackles either bring him down, or set him up off balance so another player gets him down.
With Chris Johnson, I just don't really see much power at all. He's light, doesn't really run through tackles, can't even push a guy 3 yards when hit.I like him a lot too in a PPR league. Seems like Reggie Bush lite to me, just faster.
Doesn't make much sense. LT had good combine stats. He ran a 4.46 at 221 lbs. That's impressive. Emmitt Smith is the exception, not the rule. Stop turning this into a Felix Jones thread please, ty.switz said:Burning Sensation said:
More, no doubt it.So are you more or less excited about Chris Johnson than you are about, say, Tim Hightower?Burning Sensation said:I did not "base" my opinion on his combine, but neither Johnson nor Jones are going to be running many defenders over. I dont doubt Jones plays faster than his 4.49, but when it comes to outrunning defenders, i will take Johnson over Jones. Both guys have a very similar skill set to me, i just think Johnson has less competition for touches, so i prefer him to Jones. I also do like the fact that Johnsons combine numbers were far superior to Jones.switz said:Burning Sensation said:
Unfortunately most of Felix Jones highlights are of him blowing by people with his "4.49" speed...
Felix vs LSU - 0:46, notice how the DB ends up on the ground while Felix does not. He runs through the contact, and is forced out of bounds, but he doesn't go down. Nice run at 3:20 where he powers his way into the end zone a well.
I will add there are quite a few times on this where Felix gets tackled for a loss, but there are at least two defenders each time. My big concern is his balance in traffic, as the one knock I see is that a lot of leg tackles either bring him down, or set him up off balance so another player gets him down.
With Chris Johnson, I just don't really see much power at all. He's light, doesn't really run through tackles, can't even push a guy 3 yards when hit.
No doubt. You don't see guys like Tomlinson, Portis, and Westbrook trucking lots of people. They're so shifty and elusive that they generally do better by avoiding contact and making explosive plays. However, they all possess stocky frames and excellent leg drive to survive contact when it's inevitable. There's definitely something to be said for a stout frame and the ability to get yards after contact. The biggest change in my thinking about RB prospects in the past few years has been incorporating BMI and body type considerations into my overall analysis of a prospect. That's because guys like Marion Barber and Rudi Johnson keep succeeding while guys like Reggie Bush and Michael Bennett keep disappointing.Burning Sensation said:
I have my doubts about Rice and Jones because they don't perfectly fit the size paradigm, but the other three physically resemble backs who can handle 300+ carries.
No dount those guys are capable of 300 carries, but i also see Johnson as a guy who will get 13-15 carries a game to go along with 5-6 catches, putting him over 300 touches in a season. Mendenhall will likely be sharing the load with Parker for the foreseeable future.
Point being, even guys with "prototypical size" are still going to be in RBBC, other than those few elite players, ie. Tomlinson, Westbrook, etc.
There is some merit to EBF's BMI theory. Problem i see is he puts to much stock into it, and not enough into the individuals talent. There is far more to being an elite player than physical attributes. The mental aspect of the game is often overlooked, especially by us fantasy football geeks. There is a reason Mcfadden was a top 5 pick and Mendenhall didnt go until the late first. You think the scouts are not aware of Mcfaddens legs or his BMI and how that might translate to the NFL?Edited to add, this is not to say i think EBF would draft Choice over Mcfadden, i dont think he weighs his BMI theory that heavily.
Doesn't make much sense. LT had good combine stats. He ran a 4.46 at 221 lbs. That's impressive. Emmitt Smith is the exception, not the rule. Stop turning this into a Felix Jones thread please, ty.switz said:Burning Sensation said:
I'm not the one who brought up Jones, and I'm not comparing Johnson merely to Jones. I made the statement that he lacks power, which he clearly does. The examples I showed included Jones, but were not limited to him at all.Bottom line is that of the highly drafted rookie RBs, Chris Johnson has the least leg drive. He's a speed back, not a power back, and that will limit his role in the NFL.
Well, the fact you are trying to insult me to prove your point illustrates how weak your counterattack is. I've been breaking down film for a LONG time. The fact you don't think CJ spins instead of powers through those three tacklers makes it clear that there's no sense in discussing this further with you.I'm a fan of Johnson, but he has some very definite weaknesses in his game. You'd be wise to listen to EBF on this one, if you want o disregard me.
The basic idea is that unless a RB has a BMI within the ideal range, he's almost certainly not going to become a true starter in the NFL. So you can pretty much assume that guys like McFadden, Charles, and Johnson aren't going to be the franchise type backs that you look for in FF. That doesn't mean they won't have value in some formats, but they appear to have almost no chance of becoming perennial stud workhorse backs based on recent NFL history. This doesn't mean you should draft Choice over McFadden. Choice is a fourth round pick, which automatically makes him a longshot based on historical odds. However there are two first round RBs this year whose overall profile closely resembles the prototypical NFL back. I'm talking about Mendenhall and Stewart. They have a similar pedigree to McFadden and they have it packed onto compact 220+ pound frames. They are the guys I like within the first tier.Now within the second or third tier, I might start warming up to someone like Choice. For example I might take him over Charles and Slaton. These three backs were taken in roughly the same range of the draft. Out of these three, Choice has the physical profile that most closely resembles an NFL starter. So while he might not be as talented as dynamic as talented Charles and Slaton, his talent comes in a form that's more conducive to FF success. Think of it this way: A 6'4" power forward with great skills will probably not fare as well in the NBA as a 6'10" power forward with mediocre skills. That's sort of how I view Charles and Choice. I'm actually a big Charles fan, but he's built like a twig and he has very limited power. He's the NFL equivalent of a beastly 6'4" power forward. Choice is less dynamic, but he's 215+ pounds and he could probably carry the full load if he was forced into starting duty.
Meh. Lots of guys have started out in committees because their teams already had elite backs on the roster. There's a difference between a player who's in a committee because his team already has a star back and a player who will always be in a committee because he's incapable of being an every down back. Mendenhall is in the first category whereas Johnson is in the second. If Mendenhall was on the Titans then he would be their opening day starter and finish the year with 300+ carries IMO. You're confusing the player's situation with the player's essence. Mendenhall absolutely projects as a workhorse RB. His RBBC is of the temporary variety.
I dont think Johnson is incapable of being an every down NFL back. Maybe not a prototypical type like you mentioned, but a Tiki Barber/Westbrook type is certainly a possibilty. Mendenhall could play his way into a 300+ carry back, but he will have to prove he is an elite RB. However, as long as he is just a good back, he will probably go on to share carries with Wille Parker, or another player like him.If the Titans are getting more production out of Johnson than White, i dont care how big he is, they are going to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. Same goes for Mendenhall, if he is outplaying Parker, he will get plenty of touches, but unless he does outplay him, he will be in a RBBC until he does. This pretty much holds true with alot of other teams, Bradshaw/Jacobs, Barber/Jones, Stewart/Williams, Mcfadden/Fargas, and the list goes on.
This is true... BUT players like Mendenhall and Stewart have a realistic shot of being THE running back, not just part of an RBBC. CJ is probably always going to be in an RBBC. The positive side of that is it probably will be better for his FF owners if he's in an RBBC, because then at least he will get reps.Most teams now share carries between a few RBs, but there are still guys who get 70-80% of the workload. I don't see Chris Johnson or Jammal Charles ever being one of those guys.
How much film exactly is there out there on Chris Johnson? I wouldn't think very much. Johnson can break through tackles without spinning, and that is something that he improved a lot on during his senior season. He finally started putting his shoulder pads down, and that made a world of difference. He broke many tackles that way, as well as moved piles back. He isn't a big guy, but he isn't just a run and spin guy.
I'm not arguing that every prospect with an ideal body type will be successful. Not at all. Within tiers, body type can be a very useful way to help separate the prospects.
What an awesome article. Great writeup. I am so stinking excited about this guy. The problem is, I play in a salary cap dynasty league in Nashville, TN. He is going to go so expensive.He has a nose for the endzone too doesn't he. He is always looking ahead at the goal line and moving forward. The one play in the highlight video where he is rolling on top of 4 guys with his arms stretched out for the TD is great.
Man, you're not too bright.just offered RB Charles, Nelson Jordan, and 1st rounder in 2009 for CJ3 in my PPR dynasty league. Mancrush in full effect.
And you base that on what exactly? Seeing how you don't know my roster, I'd love to hear your logic...Man, you're not too bright.just offered RB Charles, Nelson Jordan, and 1st rounder in 2009 for CJ3 in my PPR dynasty league. Mancrush in full effect.
Great write up!I have landed CJ in six out of my eight dynasty leagues. I watched him in East Carolina a few games last season and said "who the hell is that!!" He is the real deal and will show the NFL what he is about. He will become the Brian Westbrook of the AFC. Vince Young is going to love dumping the ball off to him as well. The Titians finally have a homerun hitter.
I dont see Charles as a talented enough back to overcome his size, or lack of it. Johnson has enough skill, i believe, to be a Tiki Barber, Westbrook type RB. Mendenhall has the size to be an everydown back, i am just not sold enough on his talent where i can see him pushing Parker out of the picture any time soon.
I take it you don't know much about Metcalf.
He was an extremely effective role player with multiple 1,000 plus total yard seasons.He was nowhere near a total bust like Leaf.
Without any intent to turn this into a Felix vs. Chris Johnson thread, the bolded line above is not accurate at all. Jones rarely left his feet when getting hit, there are numerous highlights where he stays on his feet through contact, even driving the defender for 2-3 yards before going down. If I were to use the phrase "leaves his feet when getting hit" I'd apply it to CJ.
From this thread it seems like - because they are in some ways similar -people who like CJ want Jones to be bad, and maybe vice versa. For the record, I think both will turn out to have a huge impact for their respective teams. If I could land both in a dynasty league I would.
Jamal Charles was also a track star in college....he has never had a full off-season to hit the weight room and train his lower body like he will in the NFL...2 years from now he will be a beast below the waist. He is someone worth stashing your roster after LJ's sun sets. He is a burner with good hands and he just needs a couple of years to get his weight and muscle mass in gear for the grind of being a feature back. I though it was a nice pick by KC seeing they have probably 2 years left with LJ as a top flight workhorse before the wear and tear comes on.
I was thinking the same thing about most of this.
great work!!
