Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 60.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • fantasycurse42

    3538

  • stbugs

    3080

  • BassNBrew

    3056

  • cosjobs

    2004

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

2 minutes ago, Capella said:

Last two days wiped out 2021 so far for me. Oh well, lots of year left!

Damn dude.  You sure have a great attitude, hopefully it's rewarded shortly.

  • Love 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Damn dude.  You sure have a great attitude, hopefully it's rewarded shortly.

Thanks! I’ve had a great 5-6 years, the short term isn’t going to faze me. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, kevzilla said:

I'm over 30% cash and almost 30% UVXY so I'm only down 3% right now.

My top 3 holdings are all green BNKU, NRGU, UVXY, and I'm about -1.5%.  Kind of surprised the UVXY isn't doing better.  Just glad I averaged that one down.      

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, hooter311 said:

I'm an insane person, but I'm staying put.  

 

Down ~-35% last two days.

 

I'm too stupid to time anything, so I'm not going to try. 

 

I don't think this is how the bull cycle ends.  I could be wrong but I'm trusting my gut.

I agree.  Hard to believe it ends with a giant infusion of government cheese while hundreds of millions of stir crazy Americans are about to have an opportunity to party like rock stars in the coming months. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a glutton for punishment, but bought another chunk of IPOE at 17.8. Missed the 16's. In for 2000 shares total @ 19.5 average. Unless I'm missing the math on the merger; if it stays at 19, SoFi will be just under 17x sales with 2021 rev expected in the $1b range, growing in the 60% range. Also expected to post its first profit in 2021 with projected EBITA of $1.5b in 2025. Multi product member growth was reported to be 220% last year, projected to grow 95% this year. I have to think the pending bank charter changes all these numbers to the positive if they get approved as it will massively help margins. Took a swing here, we'll see how it goes.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago I had kind of inadvertently freed up a bunch of cash when trimming some big winners.  Had a bunch in the IRA and a bunch in my taxable account.

Unfortunately I got impatient in the taxable account and started averaging in to some new positions last week.  Very sadly I just finished spending the last of that cash Thursday/Friday of last week, so pretty much peak bad timing there.  And of course a lot of it was in more speculative stuff that's been hit the hardest.  TSLA, BLDP, NNOX, FLGT, CRSP.  This portfolio is tech heavy overall so obviously getting crushed here.  Thankfully I am jacked to the t### in DIS so that is the only thing somewhat saving me there. But still 15%+ down in 2 days there.

Thankfully I hadn't gotten around to spending any of the IRA cash so I guess I get to go shopping there at least.  Not sure I don't want to leave that as cash a few more days for more hedging though.  

Bottom line I am disappointed in you all because no one followed up on my request to make me feel better...

On 2/4/2021 at 2:01 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

When the market correction finally does happen and I'm complaining about how I wish I'd freed up more cash, someone just remind of the dozen or so times where I was sitting around thinking to myself "wow I'm glad I'm almost fully invested right now" when my account was up 5%+ in a single day.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, hooter311 said:

I'm an insane person, but I'm staying put.  

 

Down ~-35% last two days.

 

I'm too stupid to time anything, so I'm not going to try. 

 

I don't think this is how the bull cycle ends.  I could be wrong but I'm trusting my gut.

Lol. Me too. Not quite dismantled like that but down 8% in two days sucks. Feels like this year’s gains got wiped out quickly, but that’s not too bad. I was starting to feel like we might not get that Q1 pull back that was discussed so much.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My $NPHC popped today.  Unfortunately I bought near the top so my cost basis is 0.0108.  Im going to be long on this stock so unless something crazy happens today I expect to keep these shares.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, steelerfan1 said:

I was told that you only get hurt if you jump off the roller coaster. I'm digging in. Not sure I'll be buying anymore today. Really would like DIS to have some of this correction to get more, but other than that I think I am gonna let this week simmer down a bit...That is unless Todem comes on and says otherwise...

No. Sit tight and I will give the word. Market is still frothy. This is just getting started. Wait for the shmucks on CNBC to start pimping panic.

Don’t worry....I will be here to give a back the truck up buy signal like we did back in March 2020. I don’t think you will see that kind of selloff. But a healthy 10-15% correction is what I am looking for.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 5
  • Love 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago I had kind of inadvertently freed up a bunch of cash when trimming some big winners.  Had a bunch in the IRA and a bunch in my taxable account.

Unfortunately I got impatient in the taxable account and started averaging in to some new positions last week.  Very sadly I just finished spending the last of that cash Thursday/Friday of last week, so pretty much peak bad timing there.  And of course a lot of it was in more speculative stuff that's been hit the hardest.  TSLA, BLDP, NNOX, FLGT, CRSP.  This portfolio is tech heavy overall so obviously getting crushed here.  Thankfully I am jacked to the t### in DIS so that is the only thing somewhat saving me there. But still 15%+ down in 2 days there.

Thankfully I hadn't gotten around to spending any of the IRA cash so I guess I get to go shopping there at least.  Not sure I don't want to leave that as cash a few more days for more hedging though.  

Bottom line I am disappointed in you all because no one followed up on my request to make me feel better...

I feel the same way. I had cleared up a nice amount of cash but started buying stuff the last couple weeks. I was less speculative so everything I bought was long term so it is what it is. Just would have been awesome to buy at the open today and just had more shares.

It’s too hard to time perfectly. I rolled over my wife’s IRA and while it’s down probably 8-10% the past two days, it’s still up 10% since the third week in January when it got deposited at Fidelity, so it’s all relative.

My 5 year goal is still there, it’s just the 10% up this year is now closer to flat so I’ve got the full double still left to accomplish so I can bug out of work and focus on other stuff and make my job increasing the nest egg buy my current salary every year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Todem said:

No. Sit tight and I will give the word. Market is still frothy. This is just getting started. Wait for the shmucks on CNBC to start pimping panic.

Don’t worry....I will be here to give a back the truck up buy signal like we did back in March 2020. I don’t think you will see that kind of selloff. But a healthy 10-15% correction is what I am looking for.

Me too. Think we see 20% on the nasdaq. Think we touch 11,000 personally. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Todem said:

No. Sit tight and I will give the word. Market is still frothy. This is just getting started. Wait for the shmucks on CNBC to start pimping panic.

Don’t worry....I will be here to give a back the truck up buy signal like we did back in March 2020. I don’t think you will see that kind of selloff. But a healthy 10-15% correction is what I am looking for.

When are you recommending to be cash?

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

I'm a glutton for punishment, but bought another chunk of IPOE at 17.8. Missed the 16's. In for 2000 shares total @ 19.5 average. Unless I'm missing the math on the merger; if it stays at 19, SoFi will be just under 17x sales with 2021 rev expected in the $1b range, growing in the 60% range. Also expected to post its first profit in 2021 with projected EBITA of $1.5b in 2025. Multi product member growth was reported to be 220% last year, projected to grow 95% this year. I have to think the pending bank charter changes all these numbers to the positive if they get approved as it will massively help margins. Took a swing here, we'll see how it goes.

Congrats.  $18.75 here.  So much crap to buy that it was hard to pound everything near the low.  

Today was an absolute gift.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Todem said:

No. Sit tight and I will give the word. Market is still frothy. This is just getting started. Wait for the shmucks on CNBC to start pimping panic.

Don’t worry....I will be here to give a back the truck up buy signal like we did back in March 2020. I don’t think you will see that kind of selloff. But a healthy 10-15% correction is what I am looking for.

We've already had a 20% plus correction on many of the stocks we like.  Amazon was down over 10% at one point (over the last 2 weeks).  Apple is down 10% over the last two weeks and down 15% since they announced they are printing money at will.  How much more of a correction is possible with the current climate sans a major event?  Do the stocks in the 8-10 PE range have to drop further?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

FLGT up about 20% in an hour.

I’m up on what I bought yesterday. Man, should have waited, would have pounced at $92, but didn’t want to throw more money at it since I bought some way higher and some at $109.

Damn work, but I don’t think it’s over yet. If it is, yeah, all my other stocks are good, if it isn’t better chances.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, stbugs said:

I’m up on what I bought yesterday. Man, should have waited, would have pounced at $92, but didn’t want to throw more money at it since I bought some way higher and some at $109.

Damn work, but I don’t think it’s over yet. If it is, yeah, all my other stocks are good, if it isn’t better chances.

I think that was the one I caught near the lowest.  $90.33.  In hindsight I should have backed up the bus but was worried it could keep falling.  Also wanted to get my eggs in other baskets.  Actually ran on of cash and was having to sell things like T and misc SPACs.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I think that was the one I caught near the lowest.  $90.33.  In hindsight I should have backed up the bus but was worried it could keep falling.  Also wanted to get my eggs in other baskets.  Actually ran on of cash and was having to sell things like T and misc SPACs.  

I’m pretty close to fully invested so definitely can’t back the the truck up and I do feel like there could be more downside. Maybe not today but soon. Maybe it leaks down more slowly.

That said, down about 2% so got a nice almost 5% pop from the bottom anyway.  Weird feeling when you feel good about being down 2%.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kevzilla said:

I'm over 30% cash and almost 30% UVXY so I'm only down 3% right now.

Wtf uvxy? Vic up 6%, but you're down. Today's the kind of day I need you

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, JAA said:

When are you recommending to be cash?

I did that at the start of the year. I am sitting at 30% right now. In my taxable account. My IRA and 401K are fully invested.

Edited by Todem
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

We've already had a 20% plus correction on many of the stocks we like.  Amazon was down over 10% at one point (over the last 2 weeks).  Apple is down 10% over the last two weeks and down 15% since they announced they are printing money at will.  How much more of a correction is possible with the current climate sans a major event?  Do the stocks in the 8-10 PE range have to drop further?

The market is more than AMZN and APPL. We will see a broad based sell off at some point. 

Look.....with my retirement money I pretty much stay fully invested. Always. Do I trim and rotate? Yes. But we stay invested.

With my taxable account that is where I am far more tactical. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq will have that 10-15% type of selling event. where those index’s are down and there will be a lot of things on sale other than those stocks you mentioned. 

 

You are a trader. Big difference from the approach I take. 

Edited by Todem
Link to post
Share on other sites

I've taken some profits and added some cash the last few days. I think I'm going to wait on this market for a few days and see where it goes.

Edited by jamny
Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been "de-risking" and balancing my taxable account the last few weeks. Less speculative things like SPACs, more money in long term holdings. Swapped IVV to VTI to get more small cap exposure and added a little to SCHE and IEFA to get more international exposure. The last few days is a nice time to get some losses on the speculative stuff for my taxes after mostly having gains so far this year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Todem said:

They don’t always move inversely. Interest rates are coming off historic lows. When interest rates start creeping up/go up, bond prices fall. When interest rates drop, bond prices rise. There is so much liquidity out there with this massive easing of the Fed....why do you think that former guy in the White House was politicizing the fed in his term? He wanted interest rates at 0 so the stock market would go nuts (like it did) because there is no where else to put your money to get yield except risk assets. 

Well.....that is going to change here slowly (it has too and it will) and we have a bubble here of stocks and bonds....so expect some heavy correlation in the early stages of the market selloff/correction or whatever anyone wants to call it. 

The sheer amount of wild speculation and liquidity punch drunk investors will cause it to burst soon enough. There will be some short term pain as there always is....then interest rates will eventually normalize again, the value of the dollar will rise again, stocks will find their footing again, new debt will be issued eventually (I am not that bullish on fixed income except high quality muni’s, GNMA and I love convertibles). However in a diversified portfolio there is nothing wrong with some fixed income over the long term. 

But thats why you are seeing that right now in a nutshell. It is simply a product of the interest rate environment we are in. the 10 year has had a big move since the lows and it will continue to go higher for a little while. Once we get past this pandemic....it will rise even faster as well as oil, as demand will really pick up steam and the production was cut down heavy because they had no place to store the stuff at one point!! 

Like I said day ago.......the storm clouds are brewing and forming. So expect some heavy rain storms in the market soon. 

And bitcoin is a giant ponzi scheme. There I said it.

I mean, if you saying this makes a bunch of people on here ignore it and lessen the demand and price for my purchases, that's great. Thanks!

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Todem said:

The market is more than AMZN and APPL. We will see a broad based sell off at some point. 

Look.....with my retirement money I pretty much stay fully invested. Always. Do I trim and rotate? Yes. But we stay invested.

With my taxable account that is where I am far more tactical. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq will have that 10-15% type of selling event. where those index’s are down and there will be a lot of things on sale other than those stocks you mentioned. 

 

You are a trader. Big difference from the approach I take. 

Here is where I've failed this year.  Took my salary all at once with PPP and didn't get it fully in during 2020.  So now have some cash in my 401K.  At this point I am just going to wait to see if a correction occurs to get it fully invested.  I've been sprinkling some in along the way.  I need to rebalance my taxable assets as well, too heavy in cash right now so that leads to an opportunity with any correction.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I went from 0% to 30% cash while taking a dump this morning at 6:45am. :shrug:

Kicked out most of the penny stocks that were green, got out of all EV related names completely.  I'll stick with GBTC but am out of DMGGF as I had some nice profits there.  


Going to mull some things over, but this morning spooked me and I'm not easily spooked, generally.  When I see seagulls flying in my neighborhood, I know the Pacific is ushering in some ferocity to our valley.  I feel like I saw some seagulls in the portfolio today.

  • Like 3
  • Thinking 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Capella said:

Last two days wiped out 2021 so far for me. Oh well, lots of year left!

I won't even look at the accounts until this weekend but this is probably the case for me too. 

:kicksrock: guess I'll be working a few more years 🤷🏽‍♂️

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I mean, if you saying this makes a bunch of people on here ignore it and lessen the demand and price for my purchases, that's great. Thanks!

Yeah it won’t make a dent. 

And good luck with that.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Todem said:

The market is more than AMZN and APPL. We will see a broad based sell off at some point. 

Look.....with my retirement money I pretty much stay fully invested. Always. Do I trim and rotate? Yes. But we stay invested.

With my taxable account that is where I am far more tactical. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq will have that 10-15% type of selling event. where those index’s are down and there will be a lot of things on sale other than those stocks you mentioned. 

 

You are a trader. Big difference from the approach I take. 

I’m about 20% in my taxable but AMZN is a huge part of that account so it’s not as bad as my IRAs have been the past two days.

I did trim and buy elsewhere yesterday (didn’t use all cash), but there isn’t much left that I really don’t like for the future so might just ride it out and maybe add. I think with things turning back down again that I’m just standing pat today as I don’t want to get low on cash assuming we’re done going down. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Todem said:

The market is more than AMZN and APPL. We will see a broad based sell off at some point. 

Look.....with my retirement money I pretty much stay fully invested. Always. Do I trim and rotate? Yes. But we stay invested.

With my taxable account that is where I am far more tactical. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq will have that 10-15% type of selling event. where those index’s are down and there will be a lot of things on sale other than those stocks you mentioned. 

 

You are a trader. Big difference from the approach I take. 

Agreed, DOW hit an all-time high yesterday. S&P 500 is only 2.5% off it’s all-time high. Nasdaq is down 6% (8% intraday this morning.) Broader market is barely feeling this (yet?)

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

I went from 0% to 30% cash while taking a dump this morning at 6:45am. :shrug:

Kicked out most of the penny stocks that were green, got out of all EV related names completely.  I'll stick with GBTC but am out of DMGGF as I had some nice profits there.  


Going to mull some things over, but this morning spooked me and I'm not easily spooked, generally.  When I see seagulls flying in my neighborhood, I know the Pacific is ushering in some ferocity to our valley.  I feel like I saw some seagulls in the portfolio today.

Thank you for confirming my must less experienced vibe on the current market.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...