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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond


Evil G

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On 9/20/2017 at 2:28 PM, Long Ball Larry said:

still had a 74/26 advantage in snap counts.  agree he is not a world-beater, but will wait to see how the Foreman pattern goes before totally panicking.  Miller was in basically the whole second half, I believe.

I traded him before he completely lost all value and feel good I don't have him any more.

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14 hours ago, Dismattle said:

Who were they able too acquire?  How many RB's they need/carry? I recently dropped Mack, holding Miller. It don't matter how good a pass catcher, if another guy is seeing targets. Least with Mack, there is some reason, too believe upside. Mack may be getting time too heal, and only has 32 yds on two receptions. Coach, could try n game plan at some point, once QB learns more of playbook. I'm holding Miller in what? Hopes OLine learns too play. Miller is Good, not so sure it means, I myself make smart choices..

couldnt trade him so dumped him

 

havent seen anyone picked up after by him...strange

Edited by BustedKnuckles
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As a Miller owner, I get it....however, he is still getting 20+ touches a week right now and Foreman had 1 snap week 1 and got 1 out of three series in the first half week 2 and almost nothing in the second half.  I am aware that Miller hasn't done much for a long time and have tried to deal him but to drop him is cray cray.

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12 team dynasty PPR start 1 RB (Melvin Gordon and decent backups), lost Olsen and was on life support at TE so needed to deal.  Dealt Miller and a 2nd for Ertz and a 3rd.  Happy for this return but wasn't looking to move him.  Just shows he still has value, but it may continue to decrease if Foreman eats into the workload or if Watson can't get the offense working.

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I think he'll be only as productive as Watson is. The longer it takes for him to transition and open up the offense then the longer it takes Miller to show up. As a fantasy owner, I don't care if he goes down to arm tackles or whatever. He'll be fine - if unremarkable - once his noob QB shows something (see Goff, Gurley),

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Lot’s of ridiculous panic here.

2015 - His last season in Miami in 1 pt ppr He finished RB 6 overall. RB1

2016 - 1st season in Houston with a garbage QB Finished RB 19. RB2

2017 - Thru 2 weeks...week one with Tom Savage and week 2 a rookie QB’s NFL debut as a starter He is RB 19

Watson is going to be a vast improvement over Brock “lotto contract” Osweiller and Tom “career backup” Savage. 

The only real issues I see are his OL is below average, and O’Brian still refuses to get him out in space via the pass where he will kill teams. Miller is no power back....never has been never will be. But you use him properly (like Miami did in 2014 and 2015) he will rip apart defenses for chunk yardage, and hit HR’s for you with big TD’s. 

Unreal panic in here based on nothing but two games? The points don’t lie. He is a FF RB2 in Houston. And someone said he was cut this year in a redraft league? Idiot.

 

 

Edited by Todem
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On 9/19/2017 at 6:49 PM, ChuckLiddell said:

Yup, this is a guy that needs to be given space.  He falls down with first contact nearly every time.  The offense needs to design plays that get him in space.  He is fast, and can make you miss...but if you can get a finger on him, he falls down.

I hate to say this because I have him in my 2 most important leagues...but I am finally ready to admit that he is not who I thought he was, and not what some people still think he is.  he is an easily replaceable piece, who should be used as a 3rd down back, not a starter.

So sayeth the anti-Denny Green

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I would guess the way NFL works, Miller is probably a buy low n' hold.  But guys like Marlon Mack, again I see potential.. I'm pretty sure where I ,and others may be kinda dropping the ball is guys like Conner. I really haven't seen him much yet, but even a Timeshare, or Bell injury, may not mean a whole lot.  I mean unless the defense sells out for pass, Big Ben gonna go w/ impact plays..

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  • 2 weeks later...
9 hours ago, zed2283 said:

I'll take that performance :excited::thumbup:

That's what Miller owners have been waiting for since he came to Houston.

The emergence of Foreman is still a concern though. The Texans aren't always going to have game scripts like they did yesterday and have a ton of touches for both RBs.

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54 minutes ago, zamboni said:

That's what Miller owners have been waiting for since he came to Houston.

The emergence of Foreman is still a concern though. The Texans aren't always going to have game scripts like they did yesterday and have a ton of touches for both RBs.

Foreman was a concern when they first started giving him touches, but it doesn't look like it is affecting Miller much. Yesterday, 10 of Forman's 13 runs came after the game was over and Miller had been pulled. What was nice to see was Miller got reinserted for the TD in the red zone in a late drive that Foreman had been used extensively. My biggest fear was that Foreman would take over goal line work but it doesn't look like that is in the plans at the moment.

If Watson turns out to be the real deal, Miller could be real value the rest of the way.

Edited by mcd
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1 minute ago, mcd said:

Foreman was a concern when they first started giving him touches, but it doesn't look like it is affecting Miller much. Yesterday, 10 of Forman's 13 runs came after the game was over and Miller had been pulled. What was nice to see was Miller got reinserted for the TD in the red zone in a late drive that Foreman had been used extensively. My biggest fear was that Foreman would take over goal line work.

If Watson turns out to be the real deal, Miller could be real value the rest of the way.

I don't disagree with you, but in the first three games, Foreman has been used liberally throughout games - not just blowouts. He still lurks as a threat to Miller's touches, but as long as Miller shows something like he did yesterday and the offense improves, Miller still might end up with a sizable workload anyway.

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10 minutes ago, zamboni said:

I don't disagree with you, but in the first three games, Foreman has been used liberally throughout games - not just blowouts. He still lurks as a threat to Miller's touches, but as long as Miller shows something like he did yesterday and the offense improves, Miller still might end up with a sizable workload anyway.

he lurks, but its still a 75-25 split in Miller's favor on snaps and Miller is in for all of the important plays, as far as I can tell.  He is always in on 3rd downs and key parts of the game.  Foreman basically spells him late in the first quarter and sporadically throughout the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but it is almost all on 1st and 2nd downs.  

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Quote

Lamar Miller played 56-of-64 snaps (88 percent) Week 5 against the Chiefs.

D'Onta Foreman was in on nine plays and saw five touches after hitting double-digits in both categories three games in a row. It is likely game script and a fumble is to blame for the rookie's reduced role, but this is still clearly Miller's backfield. Miller will be a solid RB2 at home against the Browns this week while Foreman remains just a bench stash.

 

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  • 1 month later...

He's still getting a lot of work but losing Watson has hurt his potential for more TDs, in my opinion.

Don't know what to do with him at this point.  I've been starting him most of the year and he's the #13 RB in my league, but thinking about starting both A.Morris and J.Williams (not that he's in a better situation) over him this week.

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30 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

He's still getting a lot of work but losing Watson has hurt his potential for more TDs, in my opinion.

Don't know what to do with him at this point.  I've been starting him most of the year and he's the #13 RB in my league, but thinking about starting both A.Morris and J.Williams (not that he's in a better situation) over him this week.

I hear you.  I didn't really see much of last week's game, but it seemed like he was going great in the first half and then got shut down in the second, presumably because they were getting behind.  I benched him because I was concerned about the Rams being able to key on him and stop him, though I don't know that that was really the case.  I'm going with him this week I think because Hyde is on a bye and my only option is Perine (using Martin and Kamara in RB2 and flex).  They should also be able to keep it close vs. Gabbert. 

But there are definite concerns.  He does have a couple of good matchups coming up in Baltimore and SF.

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22 hours ago, zed2283 said:

He's still getting a lot of work but losing Watson has hurt his potential for more TDs, in my opinion.

Don't know what to do with him at this point.  I've been starting him most of the year and he's the #13 RB in my league, but thinking about starting both A.Morris and J.Williams (not that he's in a better situation) over him this week.

This is why I'm terrible at this game.

:hot::cry:

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  • 3 weeks later...

Back in the same situation this week, trying to figure out which two to start among Miller, Morris, and J.Williams.  Of course Morris finally came through last week (on my bench).  Miller is due for a heavy workload this week, but the Texans extensive use of Ellington last week concerns me.  How bad is the Niners defense really?

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12 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Back in the same situation this week, trying to figure out which two to start among Miller, Morris, and J.Williams.  Of course Morris finally came through last week (on my bench).  Miller is due for a heavy workload this week, but the Texans extensive use of Ellington last week concerns me.  How bad is the Niners defense really?

https://media.giphy.com/media/7yoAIR7CdWOUE/giphy-facebook_s.jpg

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1 hour ago, zed2283 said:

Back in the same situation this week, trying to figure out which two to start among Miller, Morris, and J.Williams.  Of course Morris finally came through last week (on my bench).  Miller is due for a heavy workload this week, but the Texans extensive use of Ellington last week concerns me.  How bad is the Niners defense really?

Ellington was used in the slot not at rb.  And they already announced he’s gonna start in the slot today.  

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How nervous should we be about this week? Jacksonville's (relative) weak spot is their run D, and he did OK (86 YFS) against them in Week 1 even as Calais Campbell was destroying Tom Savage's soul, but I could easily see this one getting out of hand.

Main thing that's keeping him in my lineup over the likes of MDavis or Duke is his incredibly high floor this year. We pretty much saw it last week when he only had 60 YFS and 2 catches (I'm in 0.5 PPR) More often this year he's been closer to 80/5. That's particularly valuable to me given that I'm a solid favorite in my matchup.

Other factors to consider: Blue looks to be back, and Ellington has been eating into his targets a little more.

In sum, I don't think he's a must bench, and I won't be, but I could see the case if you have, say, Alex Collins toiling on your bench.

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12 minutes ago, zftcg said:

How nervous should we be about this week? Jacksonville's (relative) weak spot is their run D, and he did OK (86 YFS) against them in Week 1 even as Calais Campbell was destroying Tom Savage's soul, but I could easily see this one getting out of hand.

Main thing that's keeping him in my lineup over the likes of MDavis or Duke is his incredibly high floor this year. We pretty much saw it last week when he only had 60 YFS and 2 catches (I'm in 0.5 PPR) More often this year he's been closer to 80/5. That's particularly valuable to me given that I'm a solid favorite in my matchup.

Other factors to consider: Blue looks to be back, and Ellington has been eating into his targets a little more.

In sum, I don't think he's a must bench, and I won't be, but I could see the case if you have, say, Alex Collins toiling on your bench.

I have Collins over him this week. Funny how Miller seems to have zero trade value yet he is RB10 in the dynasty league I own him (PPR)

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I'm going to start D. Freeman and D. Lewis at RB so L. Miller would be in my flex if I decide to use him.  I'm leaning toward sitting him this week as I have higher upside options at WR.  The main concern I have this week is that I expect HOU to be trailing in this game and that means even more Ellington.  I could see starting him if you want the floor thought as I agree he's not going to totally bomb.

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Just now, Magic_Man said:

I have Collins over him this week. Funny how Miller seems to have zero trade value yet he is RB10 in the dynasty league I own him (PPR)

High floor makes him valuable. Low ceiling (plus maybe people who got burned by him last year) makes him unsexy.

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Another thing that would make me hesitate with Miller, that you hadn't mentioned,  is that he has left for parts of the game in each of the last 2 weeks with injuries...could be breaking down.  I have him benched for Burkhead and L. Murray in PPR this week.  Would also bench for Collins if I had him.

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Just now, Steeler said:

I'm going to start D. Freeman and D. Lewis at RB so L. Miller would be in my flex if I decide to use him.  I'm leaning toward sitting him this week as I have higher upside options at WR.  The main concern I have this week is that I expect HOU to be trailing in this game and that means even more Ellington.  I could see starting him if you want the floor thought as I agree he's not going to totally bomb.

Yeah, that's something I was wondering about. When Foreman was around, Miller seemed to get lots of garbage-time catches. Do we think now that they have Ellington that will no longer be true?

Just looked at his game log. Foreman got hurt in the AZ game; they signed Ellington a week later. In the three games since (all losses), Miller's targets/rec/yards have been 3/1/7, 4/4/38, and 2/2/7. In Ellington's two games with the team, his numbers have been 6/5/56 and 2/1/16.

Overall numbers are probably too small to draw any conclusions. For the year, Miller is at 40/33/316 in 13 games, which averages out to 3/2/24 per game.

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1 hour ago, SCT said:

Really tempted to bench him for Ajayi or Morris, but every ranking in the world has him many spots over those guys.

Do it. You will be glad you did. This guy is horrible. No heart. Can't break a tackle to save his life. Lays down the second he finds a nice spot of turf. This guy never sees my starting lineup again. I'm just hoping I can rip someone off in a trade in the offseason.

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21 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Do it. You will be glad you did. This guy is horrible. No heart. Can't break a tackle to save his life. Lays down the second he finds a nice spot of turf. This guy never sees my starting lineup again. I'm just hoping I can rip someone off in a trade in the offseason.

I agree.  His volume makes him usable, but he sucks at football.  Volume and great speed give him value, but if I got a decent offer for him, I'd rid my roster of his stench without looking back.  Problem is, most people already see what we see,

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23 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I agree.  His volume makes him usable, but he sucks at football.  Volume and great speed give him value, but if I got a decent offer for him, I'd rid my roster of his stench without looking back.  Problem is, most people already see what we see,

He definitely turned out to be fool’s gold after being signed away from Miami. Many (including myself) wrote last year off due to bad QB play, but even when Watson was healthy, he put up numbers on volume alone and was often outplayed by Foreman. If Foreman were still healthy, Miller might have been the weaker part of an RBBC. Good situational guy, but so not a workhorse. 

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1 minute ago, zamboni said:

He definitely turned out to be fool’s gold after being signed away from Miami. Many (including myself) wrote last year off due to bad QB play, but even when Watson was healthy, he put up numbers on volume alone and was often outplayed by Foreman. If Foreman were still healthy, Miller might have been the weaker part of an RBBC. Good situational guy, but so not a workhorse. 

In Miami I thought he ran hard and had vision. They used him a lot out of the backfield as well. His YPC used be solidly above 4. Now he's about the worst in the league at 3.6. He was a lot better with Watson taking the heat off but he's still terrible.

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43 minutes ago, lod001 said:

In Miami I thought he ran hard and had vision. They used him a lot out of the backfield as well. His YPC used be solidly above 4. Now he's about the worst in the league at 3.6. He was a lot better with Watson taking the heat off but he's still terrible.

Fair point. He seems like a guy that might be decent with 4-6 receptions and 15 carries, but O’Brien hasn’t  used him much in the passing game.

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14 minutes ago, zftcg said:

 

Starting to give serious thought to Mike Davis over Miller.

I would do that with or without Hopkins. I don't think Miller has such a high floor with Ellington taking passing down work, and even Blue could command some carries.

I'm contemplating Lewis or even Gallman over Miller (PPR).

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4 minutes ago, zamboni said:

I would do that with or without Hopkins. I don't think Miller has such a high floor with Ellington taking passing down work, and even Blue could command some carries.

I'm contemplating Lewis or even Gallman over Miller (PPR).

Wow, no way I would consider Gallman. He's on an equally bad team, facing an equally bad match-up, but unlike Miller, he has less of a track record and doesn't totally have the RB1 job sewed up.

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I'm rolling with D. Freeman and D. Lewis over L. Miller.  Miller is sharing caries with two backs now and Ellington seems to be the COP/receiving back.  I expect JAX to control the game providing a favorable game script for Ellington instead of Miller.

Freeman gets a great match up on MNF and Coleman is still concussed.  The PIT / NE game is going to be a shootout so I want pretty much every player I can get in that game.  NE destroys PIT D pretty much ever time they play and NE D is completely banged up.

So yeah, sitting Miller :) 

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On 12/15/2017 at 1:47 PM, zftcg said:

Wow, no way I would consider Gallman. He's on an equally bad team, facing an equally bad match-up, but unlike Miller, he has less of a track record and doesn't totally have the RB1 job sewed up.

Welp, I guess I should have listened to all of you. Even Gallman would have been better. Fortunately I was able to advance, but no thanks to Lamar.

So is he must-bench vs. Pittsburgh? Their run D is far from a scary matchup without Shazier, but the worry is that Houston's offense is so broken, they won't be able to get anything going. (Plus, with Brown out Pittsburgh may try to grind the clock more with Bell.)

My alternatives are Duke and KWilliams, with Mike Davis on the WW. If Williams plays he might be a safer option, but otherwise I don't know that Miller is any worse.

I'm a big favorite so I'm looking for high-floor guys. Up until a couple weeks ago I would have said that was Miller for sure. Now it's not so clear.

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:

Welp, I guess I should have listened to all of you. Even Gallman would have been better. Fortunately I was able to advance, but no thanks to Lamar.

So is he must-bench vs. Pittsburgh? Their run D is far from a scary matchup without Shazier, but the worry is that Houston's offense is so broken, they won't be able to get anything going. (Plus, with Brown out Pittsburgh may try to grind the clock more with Bell.)

My alternatives are Duke and KWilliams, with Mike Davis on the WW. If Williams plays he might be a safer option, but otherwise I don't know that Miller is any worse.

I'm a big favorite so I'm looking for high-floor guys. Up until a couple weeks ago I would have said that was Miller for sure. Now it's not so clear.

I think that Miller has migrated to low floor/low ceiling status. Even the volume can't be guaranteed as the team does not appear to be moving the chains much and generating a lot of plays. I think this is another game that Houston will have to throw to keep up, and for some ongoing reason, Miller is not part of the game plan when that happens.

I can't wait to cut this guy in my keeper league after 4 years of owning him.

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Miller is garbage. He runs like a wuss. Looks for a place to lay down. Don't trust this guy to perform like a man. Watching him VS a guy like Alex Collins will really show you how weak this guy is. He's their biggest drive killer. Without Watson drawing the heat away, he's useless. With Watson, he's at best a low end RB. The worst thing is that he could actually be pretty good if he would run like a man.

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1 minute ago, lod001 said:

Miller is garbage. He runs like a wuss. Looks for a place to lay down. Don't trust this guy to perform like a man. Watching him VS a guy like Alex Collins will really show you how weak this guy is. He's their biggest drive killer. Without Watson drawing the heat away, he's useless. With Watson, he's at best a low end RB. The worst thing is that he could actually be pretty good if he would run like a man.

I feel like you're his dad maybe?

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I'm not a huge fan of Miller, but he really seems to inspire a level of vitriol among his current/former fantasy owners. It actually makes it harder to properly incorporate others' feedback on him, because I feel like I have to discount the criticism based on the hatred he inspires.

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