I haven't finished reading all the way through the thread (I'm about halfway through), but I thought I'd weigh in on this. I just updated my player comment on Aaron Hernandez to the following:
It should be noted that this high ranking for Aaron Hernandez already accounts for his recent legal troubles. Obviously this situation is extremely worrying, but I see immediate parallels to Ray Lewis' legal woes back in 2000. Lewis accepted a plea bargain, facing misdemeanor obstruction charges in exchange for his testimony against two of his companions. He did not miss a single game. Obviously today's NFL is a different beast, and Roger Goodell has been quick to make an example of players who have embarrassed the league, so I think Hernandez's chances of a suspension are much higher than Lewis' were under Tagliabue. Still, in recent years, Goodell has overreached on suspensions and been forced to backtrack, and recent cases have shown him slower to discipline than he once was. As an example, I present Kenny Britt, who faces no league discipline after refusing to cooperate with a police investigation in January (his 9th run-in with law enforcement since joining the league). As another example, I present Ben Roethlisberger, who in 2010 was accused of sexual assault for the second time in his career. Roger Goodell responded by suspending Roethlisberger for the first six games of the 2010 season, a suspension that was later reduced to four games after Roethlisberger met certain conditions. With all currently available information, I anticipate Hernandez also accepting a plea deal in exchange for testimony. I expect Goodell to discipline Hernandez similarly to how he handled the Ben Roethlisberger accusations in 2010, with a moderate-length suspension which can be reduced through good behavior. I expect Hernandez to be eligible to play twelve games this season, and I think he'll be enough of a difference-maker when he's on the field to continue to justify this high ranking.
Obviously this situation is very fluid, and new information could surface at any time that would cause me to alter these expectations. I promise I will be closely monitoring the situation and will be quick to react as warranted to further news. For now, though, I am hesitant to react too harshly to this situation until evidence arises linking Hernandez directly to the crime. If nothing incriminating comes forward, I believe that Hernandez will prove to be a massive fantasy steal as so many owners with low risk tolerances remove him from their boards entirely. There may be very good reason to question his character, but as long as he is on the field, there is no reason to question his production.
I'm trying really hard not to be too reactionary to this. As I mention in the comment, Ray Lewis was possibly involved in a murder and pled guilty to obstruction. He never missed a game. Ben Roethlisberger has twice been accused of sexual assault. He got a 4-game suspension out of it. Kenny Britt refused to cooperate with a police investigation after one of his friends stabbed someone, and has faced no discipline. With the information I have available right now, I'm betting that Hernandez did not kill the man, but that he knows who did. I am betting that Hernandez will eventually plead out for his testimony, and he will face a noticeable but not season-ending suspension for his role in the incident. I've already updated my redraft rankings to reflect these beliefs, and later tonight I'll update him in my dynasty rankings, too. It's possible that I've got my head in the sand about him, but it's not because I'm biased; in fact, I have never owned Hernandez in any fantasy league. I just think these early reactions are too knee-jerk.
With that said, this situation is freaking insane, and there's a huge chance I'm way off the mark and will look really silly in a couple of weeks. Even a minor news update at this point could break the dam and send Hernandez plummeting. I just haven't reached a point where I'm willing to do that yet.
I've offered Jonathan Stewart for Hernandez and a late 2013 first in one league, even though I'm already stacked at TE (Gronk, Olsen, Pitta). I've made inquiries in another, but the Hernandez owner has made it clear that he won't be considering any offers until after the news cycle has finished playing out.
and should be ignored.
