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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (4 Viewers)

Banger said:
satch said:
Banger said:
with the QB situation, the Rex factor and the fact that they have a good defense...I think he's incredibly talented but I just can't see him getting a ton of targets as the team will be looking to win every game 9-3.
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Would they not prefer 27-3? I'm not saying that's a realistic weekly outcome, I just don't understand why people think Buffalo doesn't want to score. I agree that they'd love to hold opponents to 3 points, but they're not going to intentionally avoid scoring on offense themselves. Do you think if Watkins catches a pass he's going to take a knee as opposed to trying to score? If Buffalo can put up points they will, and with all of those weapons on offense a QB like Cassell might be good enough to manage a strong, well balanced offensive attack. Having a dominant defense doesn't mean they can't have a good offense. If anything, it means their offense will be on the field more.
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Rex is a defense 1st and run the ball coach. The last 3 years the Jets have been 27th, 31st and 30th in passing attempts. Last year the Bills were 13th in passing attempts. I see no reason why Rex will change his stripes having the defense he does and having added McCoy to the RB stable. Will they throw the ball, sure, will they throw it as much as last year? Highly doubtful. Again, it's not a reflection on Watkins and his ability it's completely situation. He's probably in the worst passing situation in the entire NFL because you have a coach that historically runs much more than he throws, he doesn't have a good QB and he has a good defense to play field position/clock football which he'll look to capitalize on turnovers and kick field goals. When it's 3rd and 9 mid 2nd qtr on their 40 yard line and they are up 7-3, they aren't going to take a risk and play aggressive football to pick up the 1st...they'll throw a screen to a back hope he picks it up or gets positive yards and if not they'll happily punt it and look to hem in the other team. I just don't see any reason to indicate that he'll change his stripes...that's who he is, the football he wants to play and the way his team is built.

Completely sucks if you already own him but if you don't I wouldn't touch him.
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All fair and valid points, but has Rex Ryan ever had this much talent on offense before? I think we're going to see a more balanced attack from Rex this year. He almost has no choice. He'll get crucified by fans/media if he wastes talent like McCoy, Watkins, Harvin, Clay, etc. Going to be tough not to score with guys like that. Especially if their defense keeps their offense on the field a lot.In the past Rex has had strong defenses but junk on offense. His only option was an ultra conservative offense. This team is much different. Rex has explosive offensive weapons now.

 
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satch said:
Banger said:
satch said:
Banger said:
with the QB situation, the Rex factor and the fact that they have a good defense...I think he's incredibly talented but I just can't see him getting a ton of targets as the team will be looking to win every game 9-3.
Click to expand...
Would they not prefer 27-3? I'm not saying that's a realistic weekly outcome, I just don't understand why people think Buffalo doesn't want to score. I agree that they'd love to hold opponents to 3 points, but they're not going to intentionally avoid scoring on offense themselves. Do you think if Watkins catches a pass he's going to take a knee as opposed to trying to score? If Buffalo can put up points they will, and with all of those weapons on offense a QB like Cassell might be good enough to manage a strong, well balanced offensive attack. Having a dominant defense doesn't mean they can't have a good offense. If anything, it means their offense will be on the field more.
Click to expand...
Rex is a defense 1st and run the ball coach. The last 3 years the Jets have been 27th, 31st and 30th in passing attempts. Last year the Bills were 13th in passing attempts. I see no reason why Rex will change his stripes having the defense he does and having added McCoy to the RB stable. Will they throw the ball, sure, will they throw it as much as last year? Highly doubtful. Again, it's not a reflection on Watkins and his ability it's completely situation. He's probably in the worst passing situation in the entire NFL because you have a coach that historically runs much more than he throws, he doesn't have a good QB and he has a good defense to play field position/clock football which he'll look to capitalize on turnovers and kick field goals. When it's 3rd and 9 mid 2nd qtr on their 40 yard line and they are up 7-3, they aren't going to take a risk and play aggressive football to pick up the 1st...they'll throw a screen to a back hope he picks it up or gets positive yards and if not they'll happily punt it and look to hem in the other team. I just don't see any reason to indicate that he'll change his stripes...that's who he is, the football he wants to play and the way his team is built.

Completely sucks if you already own him but if you don't I wouldn't touch him.
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All fair and valid points, but has Rex Ryan ever had this much talent on offense before? I think we're going to see a more balanced attack from Rex this year. He almost has no choice. He'll get crucified by fans/media if he wastes talent like McCoy, Watkins, Harvin, Clay, etc. Going to be tough not to score with guys like that. Especially if their defense keeps their offense on the field a lot.In the past Rex has had strong defenses but junk on offense. His only option was an ultra conservative offense. This team is much different. Rex has explosive offensive weapons now.
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I doubt that Rex cares what the fans or media think about his offensive game plan.Your point about offensive talent is fair though.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
satch said:
Banger said:
satch said:
Banger said:
with the QB situation, the Rex factor and the fact that they have a good defense...I think he's incredibly talented but I just can't see him getting a ton of targets as the team will be looking to win every game 9-3.
Click to expand...
Would they not prefer 27-3? I'm not saying that's a realistic weekly outcome, I just don't understand why people think Buffalo doesn't want to score. I agree that they'd love to hold opponents to 3 points, but they're not going to intentionally avoid scoring on offense themselves. Do you think if Watkins catches a pass he's going to take a knee as opposed to trying to score? If Buffalo can put up points they will, and with all of those weapons on offense a QB like Cassell might be good enough to manage a strong, well balanced offensive attack. Having a dominant defense doesn't mean they can't have a good offense. If anything, it means their offense will be on the field more.
Click to expand...
Rex is a defense 1st and run the ball coach. The last 3 years the Jets have been 27th, 31st and 30th in passing attempts. Last year the Bills were 13th in passing attempts. I see no reason why Rex will change his stripes having the defense he does and having added McCoy to the RB stable. Will they throw the ball, sure, will they throw it as much as last year? Highly doubtful. Again, it's not a reflection on Watkins and his ability it's completely situation. He's probably in the worst passing situation in the entire NFL because you have a coach that historically runs much more than he throws, he doesn't have a good QB and he has a good defense to play field position/clock football which he'll look to capitalize on turnovers and kick field goals. When it's 3rd and 9 mid 2nd qtr on their 40 yard line and they are up 7-3, they aren't going to take a risk and play aggressive football to pick up the 1st...they'll throw a screen to a back hope he picks it up or gets positive yards and if not they'll happily punt it and look to hem in the other team. I just don't see any reason to indicate that he'll change his stripes...that's who he is, the football he wants to play and the way his team is built.

Completely sucks if you already own him but if you don't I wouldn't touch him.
Click to expand...
All fair and valid points, but has Rex Ryan ever had this much talent on offense before? I think we're going to see a more balanced attack from Rex this year. He almost has no choice. He'll get crucified by fans/media if he wastes talent like McCoy, Watkins, Harvin, Clay, etc. Going to be tough not to score with guys like that. Especially if their defense keeps their offense on the field a lot.In the past Rex has had strong defenses but junk on offense. His only option was an ultra conservative offense. This team is much different. Rex has explosive offensive weapons now.
Click to expand...
I doubt that Rex cares what the fans or media think about his offensive game plan.Your point about offensive talent is fair though.
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I should've included ownership along with fans & media. I don't imagine they brought in Watkins, McCoy, Harvin, Clay, etc to have Rex ignore them.

If Rex does go ultra conservative with this team, and they start losing games people will start saying WTF.

 
Rotoworld:

According to WKBW Buffalo's Joe Buscaglia, Sammy Watkins has been "head-and-shoulders" the best player at Bills camp.

Buscaglia says Watkins "makes difficult catches look routine, and he continually gets separation from any cornerback he goes up against." Watkins is a big-time talent, but concerns are valid regarding the approach of Buffalo's offense and what's certain to be sub-par quarterback play. In 12-team drafts, we'd start considering drafting Watkins at about the late fifth round.

Source: WKBW Buffalo
Aug 16 - 3:53 PM
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Faust said:
Rotoworld:

According to WKBW Buffalo's Joe Buscaglia, Sammy Watkins has been "head-and-shoulders" the best player at Bills camp.

Buscaglia says Watkins "makes difficult catches look routine, and he continually gets separation from any cornerback he goes up against." Watkins is a big-time talent, but concerns are valid regarding the approach of Buffalo's offense and what's certain to be sub-par quarterback play. In 12-team drafts, we'd start considering drafting Watkins at about the late fifth round.

Source: WKBW Buffalo
Aug 16 - 3:53 PM
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I think the first pre-season game alone nullifies this certainty.

I'm not saying they're certain to get par QB play, but it's definitely not certain to be sub-par.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
I think the first pre-season game alone nullifies this certainty.


I'm not saying they're certain to get par QB play, but it's definitely not certain to be sub-par.
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Depends on what par is I suppose.

If we assume most fantasy leagues are start-1QB, then "par" would at worst be somewhere around QB12: a level every owner could be expected to achieve. QBs 11-14 are Romo, Brady, Bridgewater and Manning. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say we're definitely not going to see that level or production out of the Buffalo QB position this season.

I suppose if you read roto as referring to par for the NFL perspective, rather than fantasy, we'd need to work out QB16 instead of QB12. Since that puts us in Kaepernick-Hoyer-Carr-Alex Smith territory, based on passing yardage, you'd be right. The Bills might achieve this level of QB productivity.

 
Rotoworld:

The Buffalo News called WR Sammy Watkins the Bills' "August MVP."

Tyler Dunne said Watkins was the best player on the field in camp and easily beat No. 1 CB Stephon Gilmore on multiple occasions. All reports on Watkins this preseason have been glowing, and it appears he has taken a step forward in his first NFL offseason. The problem for Watkins' fantasy value was never his talent, though. On a low-volume passing offense with an unsettled quarterback situation, it will be difficult for Watkins to consistently produce WR2 numbers.

Source: Buffalo News

Aug 27 - 8:56 AM
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I have to admit I'm a little intrigued with Watkins now that Taylor is the starter. If Taylor is halfway decent Watkins could be a steal where he's going in drafts. I understand the concern but the talent is there.

 
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ponchsox said:
I have to admit I'm a little intrigued with Watkins now that Taylor is the starter. If Taylor is halfway decent Watkins could be a steal where he's going in drafts. I understand the concern but the talent is there.
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Potentially the cheapest WR1 on the ADP charts right now, going in Round 6 in recent 12-team mocks.

 
LittlePhatty said:
ponchsox said:
I have to admit I'm a little intrigued with Watkins now that Taylor is the starter. If Taylor is halfway decent Watkins could be a steal where he's going in drafts. I understand the concern but the talent is there.
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Potentially the cheapest WR1 on the ADP charts right now, going in Round 6 in recent 12-team mocks.
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I just don't think the volume is there. Taylor likely increases the number of running plays they will have because he is likely to run the ball 100 times himself. Now, it could lead to more RZ chances and big plays off of play action, but I don't think it is enough volume to make him a WR1 on a ppg basis. I could see DeSean Jackson type numbers tho. 1000 and 6 with some huge games and some total duds.

 
He's just such a different type of WR than Desean, He can win short, medium, or deep. I have to think he's going to be a BIG part of every single game plan....

If Tyrod can be adequate, I see something like 85-1300-10 being very possible. Thats a few weeks with 50, and a few weeks with 175.

 
packer_junkie said:
He's just such a different type of WR than Desean, He can win short, medium, or deep. I have to think he's going to be a BIG part of every single game plan....

If Tyrod can be adequate, I see something like 85-1300-10 being very possible. Thats a few weeks with 50, and a few weeks with 175.
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Jets threw 495 times last year, SF threw 483 and the Bills threw 578. I am just worried about the volume Sammy gets. I don't think he is the same player as DeSean, but due to the low number of attempts in the offense, I think he will be very dependent on big plays.

 
He's going to be in a position to make plays with defenses focusing on stopping the run. If Taylor gets him the ball, he's going to be a beast. He's pretty much uncoverable one on one unless he's facing someone like Revis. The guy is a top 3-4 talent in the league at his position.

 
ponchsox said:
He's going to be in a position to make plays with defenses focusing on stopping the run. If Taylor gets him the ball, he's going to be a beast. He's pretty much uncoverable one on one unless he's facing someone like Revis. The guy is a top 3-4 talent in the league at his position.
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Very talented kid, but that is a stretch at this point in his career.

 
Ilov80s said:
ponchsox said:
He's going to be in a position to make plays with defenses focusing on stopping the run. If Taylor gets him the ball, he's going to be a beast. He's pretty much uncoverable one on one unless he's facing someone like Revis. The guy is a top 3-4 talent in the league at his position.
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Very talented kid, but that is a stretch at this point in his career.
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I have him as the 7th best talent...but most know I'm bullish.

 
Ilov80s said:
ponchsox said:
He's going to be in a position to make plays with defenses focusing on stopping the run. If Taylor gets him the ball, he's going to be a beast. He's pretty much uncoverable one on one unless he's facing someone like Revis. The guy is a top 3-4 talent in the league at his position.
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Very talented kid, but that is a stretch at this point in his career.
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Honestly, if he's not top 3-4, he's not far off. He's an absolutely tremendous player.....if someone can get him the ball.

 
He doesn't seem to get much respect this year. Granted it was later in my auction, but I got him for $6 around the same time Martavis Bryant went for $7, Jordan Matthews for $28 and Keenan Allen went for $11.

This was a 10 team. PPR. $200 cap.

 
Sure wish the Bills had a QB. Then again Andre Johnson never had much of a QB. Its such a mixed bag with teh top wideouts in terms of their QB. Is Tyrod going to be halfway decent like Eli Manning? Or just horrible like Manziel?

 
Yeah, that's what I mean, Gordon lit the league on fire with crap at QB. You put a guy like Josh Gordon with Luck, you are looking at 2000 yards.

 
At least with Taylor, there's a chance they could a better passing attack. We knew he was being held back by Manuel/Cassel.

 
Sabertooth said:
Yeah, that's what I mean, Gordon lit the league on fire with crap at QB. You put a guy like Josh Gordon with Luck, you are looking at 2000 yards.
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exactly...elite talent can trump situation....doesn't happen a lot, but it has happened.

The Bills are so excited about the guy they don't let him get one snap in the preseason...tells me what I need to know about his 5th round ADP.

 
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I'm sure the knocks on him have been covered in depth (mainly team/QB) but what about how bad he's been in the RZ? Consistent RZ production isn't exactly a requisite to make top 12 but he's been below average dating back to college. I found that odd.

 
This is how I see it. As a rookie he put up a pretty good stat line with 68 for 982 and 6 tds. Everyone is talking about how bad his situation is, but I'd argue he's in a better spot this year. Last season Watkins was targeted 128 time, 44 of those targets were considered uncatchable. That ranked 5th highest in uncatchable rate percentage 34.4% among all wide receivers. He was only behind DT who had 48 uncatchable balls, 4 more then watkins but on 60 more targets! He also dealt with groin and hip injuries, where the latter required offseason surgery. All with no supporting cast, not much talent on the offensive side of the ball last year.

This year, the bills added another dynamic play maker in shady which will help sammy in the passing game. Along with clay and Harvin for a supporting cast. Tyrod Taylor should be able to be more effective then orton/manuel from last year. Watkins looked 100% healthy following surgery. Not to mention this summer all we have heard from bills camp is how he has been torching every corner on the team. This talk of the running game is getting slightly exaggerated. The Bills will throw plenty and Watkins is the clear #1.

I see his floor at 80 for 1200 and 8 tds with upside for more. Around wr #15 in ppr

 
Well I got him as my wr3 so I hope what you guys are predicting comes to fruition so we can all come back in this thread every Sunday and do the dance of joy! GL guys!

 
Watkins is one of the few guys I'm REALLY hoping to get in my drafts. He's everything I'm looking for:

elite measurable

huge role in offense

soft hands

mature, hard worker

cheap price tag

He's a near lock for a year 2 breakout.

 
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Air Stich said:
Watkins is one of the few guys I'm REALLY hoping to get in my drafts. He's everything I'm looking for:

elite measurable

huge role in offense

soft hands

mature, hard worker

cheap price tag

He's a near lock for a year 2 breakout.
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I hope so, especially because of how much I am risking on Tyrod, but Sammy has no proven QB and an offense likely to be near the bottom in pass attempts and scoring.

 
Ilov80s said:
Air Stich said:
Watkins is one of the few guys I'm REALLY hoping to get in my drafts. He's everything I'm looking for:

elite measurable

huge role in offense

soft hands

mature, hard worker

cheap price tag

He's a near lock for a year 2 breakout.
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I hope so, especially because of how much I am risking on Tyrod, but Sammy has no proven QB and an offense likely to be near the bottom in pass attempts and scoring.
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Was Buffalo's offense that bad last year? I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think they were middle of the pack and there's reason to believe they'll improve this season.

I'll concede that the offense isn't BOOSTING his fantasy potential, but the Watkins train is taking off anyway. He's got top 5 BEASTLY talent and I'm sure Buffalo will target him like the true #1 WR that he is. He's the type of player that can catch a short slant, knock down the corner, and run 50 yards for a TD.

 
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Everyone in here is a lot higher on Watkins then I am although I will concede he is likely still good value as your WR3. It's just that some of the projected ceilings are outrageous. Also, 80/1200/8 floor? Get out of here haha.

He saw a lot of opportunity in comparison to most of his rookie class last year (ran 619 routes, next closest was Benjamin with 534) but turned in middling results. He was wildly inefficient with a catch rate of 50.8%. A lot of this can be attributed Manual/Orton (43.6% of balls thrown to Watkins were deemed uncatachable) but again this year BUF QB play will be mired in uncertainty.

Again, there are RZ woes which I find odd. BUF was top-12 in RZ opportunities per game yet only 9.4% of Watkins's targets came in that section of the field, this percentage is good for 102nd place of all WRs with 50+ targets. He was only able to convert a TD on 3 of 12 of these targets (5 of 19 in college). He's a big play threat but the team doesn't seem well equipped to fully utilize him which, IMO, keeps his floor low at WR3 and doesn't give him the ceiling he'd have on another team that could fully exploit his potential.

 
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O.K., correct me if I am wrong, but if his catch rate was 50.3% and 43.6% of balls thrown his way were uncatchable, wouldn't that make his catch rate on "catchable" balls (56.4%) be 89.2% (50.3/56.4)? If so, I'd think that would be pretty good.

 
Titan said:
O.K., correct me if I am wrong, but if his catch rate was 50.3% and 43.6% of balls thrown his way were uncatchable, wouldn't that make his catch rate on "catchable" balls (56.4%) be 89.2% (50.3/56.4)? If so, I'd think that would be pretty good.
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Yes, he made the best of a bad situation but the question isn't his talent but if his situation from last year actually improves with Tyrod Taylor under center.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Titan said:
O.K., correct me if I am wrong, but if his catch rate was 50.3% and 43.6% of balls thrown his way were uncatchable, wouldn't that make his catch rate on "catchable" balls (56.4%) be 89.2% (50.3/56.4)? If so, I'd think that would be pretty good.
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Yes, he made the best of a bad situation but the question isn't his talent but if his situation from last year actually improves with Tyrod Taylor under center.
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Fair enough. But I think to call him "wildly inefficient" is inaccurate.

 
Air Stich said:
Was Buffalo's offense that bad last year? I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think they were middle of the pack and there's reason to believe they'll improve this season.
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Bills ranks last year:

Yards - 18th

Points - 26th

1st Downs - 28th

Passing Yards - 18th

Passing YPA - 24th

Rushing Yards - 25th

Rushing YPA - 26th

 
Titan said:
O.K., correct me if I am wrong, but if his catch rate was 50.3% and 43.6% of balls thrown his way were uncatchable, wouldn't that make his catch rate on "catchable" balls (56.4%) be 89.2% (50.3/56.4)? If so, I'd think that would be pretty good.
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It is good. That stat just means his QB sucked last year.

He has a different (and unproven) QB this year, so I can understand why people are hesitant.

But I just think he's being drafted below his potential, while a few other WRs going ahead of him are being drafted at their max potential right now.

 
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