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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Allen Robinson, Bears


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28 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

After seeing the Dolphins get a 4th and a 7th for Landry, you have to feel like JAX could've gotten something for AR15. 

They will likely get a 3rd round comp pick next year. So about even with what the Dolphins got, right?

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36 minutes ago, strong said:

 

could you explain to me why team narratives like this really matter? the bears have had 3 different coaches in that window and i'd be surprised if more than a couple players on the 2012-13 bears are still on the team.

i get the trivia part of going through different bears receivers but i'm having a real hard time figuring out how marty booker's career is informative to predicting what allen robinson will do in the windy city...

The Bear's have a reputation of being a place where WRs can't perform.  That has to do with years of different GMs, coaches and players.  This lead to people having a bias against the Bears never being a team that has good WRs.  I was showing that it wasn't the case all the time.  It has nothing to do with how AR will do but people still have that bias.

This years Bear's team will not be similar to ones in the past.

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20 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

They will likely get a 3rd round comp pick next year. So about even with what the Dolphins got, right?

It's more complicated than that. If the Jags go out and spend the same amount on other free agents then it cancels out and they get no picks. I don't know how many other free agents they lost or who else they've signed, but I think they spent more on Norwell than AR15 got paid, so signs are currently pointing to them not getting anything at all, much less a 3rd.

So, in summary, no.

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

It's more complicated than that. If the Jags go out and spend the same amount on other free agents then it cancels out and they get no picks. I don't know how many other free agents they lost or who else they've signed, but I think they spent more on Norwell than AR15 got paid, so signs are currently pointing to them not getting anything at all, much less a 3rd.

So, in summary, no.

Good point, I forgot about it being the sum total of your free agent signings. Yeah, they should have tagged him. 

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On 3/13/2018 at 1:35 PM, Hawkeye21 said:

The Bear's have a reputation of being a place where WRs can't perform.  That has to do with years of different GMs, coaches and players.  This lead to people having a bias against the Bears never being a team that has good WRs.  I was showing that it wasn't the case all the time.  It has nothing to do with how AR will do but people still have that bias.

This years Bear's team will not be similar to ones in the past.

 

thanks. on second thought i probably should have phrased my question differently.

 

bias is definitely important, especially if the idea is to find undervalued assets. i will bump allen robinson up a slot or two from consensus ranks since it's probably safe to assume people might be baking these biases into it.

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6 hours ago, strong said:

 

thanks. on second thought i probably should have phrased my question differently.

 

bias is definitely important, especially if the idea is to find undervalued assets. i will bump allen robinson up a slot or two from consensus ranks since it's probably safe to assume people might be baking these biases into it.

One of the big reasons the Bear's got their reputation is because they really haven't had many decent QBs that could give a WR big numbers.  They also haven't had very good offenses coaches.  They've always had more of a defensive mindset with a focus on the run game.  That's been their reputation and even Bear's fans have a hard time of letting go of that as well.

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17 minutes ago, TheBottomLine said:

No surprise there

I thought it was pretty close to his value. I have him in a couple full PPR leagues that are not superflex and I would have a tough time turning down 1.04 for him. 

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4 hours ago, jtd13 said:

I thought it was pretty close to his value. I have him in a couple full PPR leagues that are not superflex and I would have a tough time turning down 1.04 for him. 

that seemed fine/close to me,  I wouldn't trade a top 5 pick for him

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  • 3 weeks later...
13 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I think he was most likely to be anyway.  Bear's will be adding a WR in the draft now for sure.

Agreed - I should have said "even more" of a target monster. Of course, the downside is that it's hard to imagine that there is a rookie WR out there that will be a force right off the bat - so A-Rob is going to be seeing a lot of double coverage.

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Just now, voiceofunreason said:

And every year they are for sure drafting a wr early, for sure. Just like you said about the bears. It's highly unlikely imo but saying for sure is foolish.

Well, the Bears have a WR1 now.  All I was saying is that they need to draft a WR at some point for sure now whereas they probably didn't at all with keeping Meredith.  Doesn't mean it will be super early but I would like to see them get Sutton in the 2nd round if he were there now.

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2 hours ago, 3quinox said:

What should we expect his floor/ceiling to be with the new team?

AR15 is going to be an interesting data point. Right now FP has his consensus rank at WR18, which seems reasonable (though that's likely to rise if it looks like he's clicking with Trubisky in TC). I say "interesting" because I think drafting AR is likely to have an asymmetric payoff. 

Statistically, FA WRs have a habit of underperforming in Year 1 with their new teams, which makes sense - they're learning a new playbook plus the rhythm, timing, and ball placement of a new QB. That's a lot to absorb in a few weeks of on-field practice time.

That combined with the Bears' offense (dead last in pass attempts last year) would make him a hard pass for me in a vacuum. But ... this is an entirely new coaching staff and offensive philosophy. That 2017 PA figure doesn't give us much guidance for 2018. Will they rank 28th? 18th? 4th? I think the former is more likely than the latter, but nobody really knows.

So, compared to most of the other names in his ADP range (Diggs, Alshon, Fitz, DT, Tate), I see a larger chance he winds up failing to deliver full value, but also a larger chance that he breaks out to finish as a top-5 to 10 WR. 

TL,DR: I view him as very similar to Josh Gordon - I wouldn't want either as my WR1 but I'd love them as my WR2.

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2 hours ago, 3quinox said:

What should we expect his floor/ceiling to be with the new team?

Bears fan here and you should be optimistic, the offense under Fox/Loggains was dreadful and the Nagy hiring is significant. Trubisky seems to be the real deal. I consider him in the range of WR15 or so in PPR. He won't be force-fed the ball because you do have Miller now, Gabriel, Burton/Shaheen and Cohen out of the backfield but he is still the #1.

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1 hour ago, pbandy1 said:

Bears fan here and you should be optimistic, the offense under Fox/Loggains was dreadful and the Nagy hiring is significant. Trubisky seems to be the real deal. I consider him in the range of WR15 or so in PPR. He won't be force-fed the ball because you do have Miller now, Gabriel, Burton/Shaheen and Cohen out of the backfield but he is still the #1.

Not to mention he gets to play against sieve pass defense in GB and DET twice. Schedules matter. Also plays NYG, MIA, NYJ, BAL, NE, whom are all terrible.  Add the the Chiefs whom lost all their star defensive players.  Schedule sets up pretty nicely for Robinson, imo. Many games on their schedule will be higher scoring and lead to a lot of pass catch-up.

 

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Normally I do a little of my own player projections but I'm going to leave AR up to the professionals this year.  There's just so much unknown to really have any real confidence.  The Bears have a QB who hasn't played a full year yet and an entire new coaching staff.  Hard to project when we don't know enough about the QB or the offense.  I'm optimistic though.

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17 hours ago, Phenomena said:

Not to mention he gets to play against sieve pass defense in GB and DET twice. Schedules matter. Also plays NYG, MIA, NYJ, BAL, NE, whom are all terrible.  Add the the Chiefs whom lost all their star defensive players.  Schedule sets up pretty nicely for Robinson, imo. Many games on their schedule will be higher scoring and lead to a lot of pass catch-up.

 

Baltimore has terrible pass D?

 

Edited to add- and the Bears don't play the Ravens next year so maybe that was meant to say Buf. Which also doesn't have a terrible pass defense but calling them out doesn't offend me as a Ravens fan. Carry on.

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42 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Baltimore has terrible pass D?

 

Edited to add- and the Bears don't play the Ravens next year so maybe that was meant to say Buf. Which also doesn't have a terrible pass defense but calling them out doesn't offend me as a Ravens fan. Carry on.

Also MIA & NYJ aren't terrible, they are slightly below average. NE and DET gave up a ton of passing yards but were both top 10 in lowest points given up, and NE's defense tightened up considerably after the first half of the season. GB was below average, but missing Rodgers for most of the season will hurt any units numbers, and they just drafted two new corners.

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5 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

What did people see from Trubisky last season that results in the belief that he’s the real deal? Serious question. 

I think he's the real deal. Excellent pocket presence, decent wheels, and he throws a good ball. For all he had to work with he still put up good stats for a rookie. 

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21 hours ago, pbandy1 said:

Bears fan here and you should be optimistic, the offense under Fox/Loggains was dreadful and the Nagy hiring is significant. Trubisky seems to be the real deal. I consider him in the range of WR15 or so in PPR. He won't be force-fed the ball because you do have Miller now, Gabriel, Burton/Shaheen and Cohen out of the backfield but he is still the #1.

Last year with Blake Bortles he had an adp of WR14, fwiw.

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  • 5 weeks later...
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Been an A-Rob fan since his college days, but I'm a little bit leery of him in dynasty and redraft at his current market price. Never been the most consistent guy in the NFL and now he's changing teams and working his way back from injury. He has talent, but it certainly feels like there are a lot of red flags.

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I can easily see him finishing the season with 800 and 5.  I projected him for 960 and 6.  

FBG has his ADP at 48--end of the 4th round. 

5th round receivers:  Josh Gordon(who I also don't trust) had decent production last season.  

Marvin Jones:  1000 and 9 last year, better QB. 

6th Round:  Corey Davis, Crabtree, Hogan

7th:  Watkins, Goodwin, Edleman, Fuller, Sanders.  

Footballguys has Goodwin and Crabtree ranked above him despite the differences in ADP.  

I can see several of those guys giving you similar production, and you can get them all much later.  If I was getting Robinson in the 7th/8th, maybe I can't resist the upside.  In the 4th round--I'd rather regret him having 1200 yards than regret him having 800.  

Depending on where you pick in the 4th--Fitzgerald is going off the board at ADP 38, which feels absurd.  Landry won't break any yardage records, but based on the pre-season, the target volume appears reliable.  You've got JJSS, Drake, Ajay, Tate.  I've seen Doug Baldwin and Collins slip into the 4th in several mocks.  

 

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