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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Allen Robinson, Bears


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And let's be honest, the last thing Chicago needs is another AR15 on the streets.

You must not be a dynasty owner of his....

Look at Trubisky’s last 4 VS Detroit 4-0      124.5 rating (it’s 77.7 VS errybody else) 12-1 TD/INT (22-19 in 21 other games)  He owns the Lions since mid-2018.

On 1/10/2019 at 7:37 PM, jm192 said:

Curious what the shark pool predicts from him next season.  

 

He has broken 900 yards once in his career.  I've seen him projected in the teens of WR rankings up to the early 20's.  He missed 3 games this season.  Missed virtually all of the season before.  He'll be the #1 WR on the Bears.  I feel like Trusbisky is already pretty good and going to keep getting better.  That said, I feel like he'll always be 800 and 6.  Is the upside for more there, sure.  But I feel like he's low on my totem pole of upside until you get into the mid-late 20's of WR rankings.  I've currently got him at WR28 or WR29.

Sounds about right.

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  • 5 months later...

Kevin Fishbain‏Verified account @kfishbain

Bears WR Allen Robinson: “I feel light years ahead of any point in time last season.”

Recapping OTAs and minicamp with Robinson, Cody Whitehair on his move to guard, Akiem Hicks on Chuck Pagano's defense and of course an obligatory kicking update

9:59 AM - 14 Jun 2019

----------------------------------

I've heard he is completely healthy for the first time in years.

He could have a big bounce-back season.

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  • 2 months later...

Bell likes Robinson's upside Stephania Bell describes how she expects Allen Robinson's fantasy production to improve in 2019 being another year removed from a knee injury.

Stephania Bell‏Verified account @Stephania_ESPN

Bears WR Allen Robinson is now in his second year post-ACL surgery. Is that reason for optimism? I believe it is.

3:50 AM - 29 Aug 2019

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15 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I don't know what it is, but I've never been on board with Robinson.

Maybe because his physical profile is more Dez Bryant than sheer burner?

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Robinson absolutely crushed camp and if you watched any of the games at the end of last year, Trub threw his way early and often.

That being said, keep sleeping on him so his ADP doesn't rise too much.  I haven't drafted in my main leagues yet.

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3 minutes ago, -X- said:

Robinson absolutely crushed camp and if you watched any of the games at the end of last year, Trub threw his way early and often.

That being said, keep sleeping on him so his ADP doesn't rise too much.  I haven't drafted in my main leagues yet.

I like him a lot this season.  I think the weapons around him actually help take pressure off him.  IF he stays healthy hes over 1000 and 10 TD's.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Maybe because his physical profile is more Dez Bryant than sheer burner?

No, that's not it.  I actually prefer big / fast WRs that win in contested situations.  There are a few burners that separate themselves, but in general I don't gravitate to the runts.  Even though Robinson is the prototypical WR in size, I never liked him in JAX and I don't like him now.  He seems to always be nicked up for some reason or another.   Someone just offered me Robinson and a 2020 1st rd pick for Mike Evans.  I easily rejected.  He has 3 first rd picks (probably only 1 top 3) and I would have a hard time doing that deal for all 3 of the picks, which I would want over Robinson and a pick.

Edited by JohnnyU
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56 minutes ago, Manster said:

He looked great tonight even though the Bears O was anemic.....he fell tremendously in my drafts and I scooped him up.  For the price I got him, he's all upside.

Too bad his QB is Trubisky.  He would be a top 5 WR with any other QB. 

Edited by blips24
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1 hour ago, blips24 said:

Too bad his QB is Trubisky.  He would be a top 5 WR with any other QB. 

Top 5 with any other qb?  You think he's better than Hopkins/Julio/ODB/Hill/Juju if Brissett or Fitzpatrick is his qb?

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

29% target share with 45% of the yardage. This is just the tip of the iceberg if Nagy can get this offense moving.

Of course it helps to have a QB that starts staring at him in the huddle and doesn't break eye contact until the whistle blows.

Trubisky looked like a 3rd year rookie last night. Lucky for him the GB defenders can't catch a ball to save their lives.

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8 minutes ago, Dizzy said:

Trubisky looked like a 3rd year rookie last night. Lucky for him the GB defenders can't catch a ball to save their lives.

Yeah, not a good night for Trubisky truthers. But as has been mentioned, Robinson got it done with Bortles. And if I had to pick, I think I'd go Trubisky/Nagy over Bortles/Olson. I don't expect Trubisky to throw 35 TDs like Bortles did in 2015, but ~4400 yards is achievable if he throws enough (Bortles threw 606 times @ 7.31 ypa).

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25 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Yeah, not a good night for Trubisky truthers. But as has been mentioned, Robinson got it done with Bortles. And if I had to pick, I think I'd go Trubisky/Nagy over Bortles/Olson. I don't expect Trubisky to throw 35 TDs like Bortles did in 2015, but ~4400 yards is achievable if he throws enough (Bortles threw 606 times @ 7.31 ypa).

4400 seems quite high.  That would be 278 yards per game the rest of the way.  Trubisky only threw for 278+ yards three times last year, and the defense looks good enough that they likely won't be facing many large deficits to rack up garbage yards.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

4400 seems quite high.  That would be 278 yards per game the rest of the way.  Trubisky only threw for 278+ yards three times last year, and the defense looks good enough that they likely won't be facing many large deficits to rack up garbage yards.

Well, he threw the ball 45 times last night after the Bears averaged 32 pass attempts last year - and Trubisky only threw the ball over 35 times once all of last season. So maybe last night was an anomaly or maybe Nagy has different plans for this season. Bortles averaged 277 yards per game during Allen's 1400 yard season. Trubisky averaged 7.43 ypa last season. If he matches that this year, he has to throw about 37 passes per game to reach the same yardage, which would be 596 pass attempts on the year. FWIW, the NFL median was 35 pass attempts. I'm not saying I'd bet on Trubisky reaching 4400, but my point was that it isn't a stretch to think he could put up similar yardage to Bortles during Allen's breakout season.

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Sell high?  Got him in the 7th as my WR#3.  Don't see the Bears throwing 40+ times a game...

On the flip side, he had double digit targets and eclipsed 100 yards on a night where the Bears O was horrible and scored 3 points.

Decisions...

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3 minutes ago, OU#1 said:

Sell high?  Got him in the 7th as my WR#3.  Don't see the Bears throwing 40+ times a game...

On the flip side, he had double digit targets and eclipsed 100 yards on a night where the Bears O was horrible and scored 3 points.

Decisions...

Depends what the market will pay for him. Trubisky will hold him back and I don't think the TDs will come easy.  But targets should be there.  He should be a WR2 as I don't see anyone else on that offense taking targets from him.  Unless you can get WR1 value, I would hold.

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8 minutes ago, OU#1 said:

Sell high?  Got him in the 7th as my WR#3.  Don't see the Bears throwing 40+ times a game...

On the flip side, he had double digit targets and eclipsed 100 yards on a night where the Bears O was horrible and scored 3 points.

Decisions...

He was a target monster down the stretch last year as well. He’s the clear WR1 on this team, so even if they throw 25x, 10 of those targets will be ARob.

he looks to be 100% back to his pre-injury  form. 

If Nagy & Trubisky can pull their heads out of their arses he’ll have some TDs too. 

I would hold. If nothing else to build his perceived value up to match reality.

Right now the perception is still a little weak, despite the week 1 performance. Let it become a trend if you really want to sell high. 

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4 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

29% target share with 45% of the yardage. This is just the tip of the iceberg if Nagy can get this offense moving.

Not sure this will continue.  Their best TE was out and they threw the ball WAY more than they will need to in most games.

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8 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Congrats guys! I know it's only one game but I couldn't have asked for better performance. I own a ton of A-Rob in redraft. To bad I don't have him in dynasty. 

$26/500

:wub: 

If the Bears ever get a good QB I’m set! 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Not sure this will continue.  Their best TE was out and they threw the ball WAY more than they will need to in most games.

You talking about Burton as if he moves the needle? I'm not even sure if he's better than Shaheen, but I'm willing to concede a "marginally better" label.

Anyway, throwing the ball more or less doesn't matter since I was talking about percentages. Those are both really high percentages, though, so they could come down and he'd still have WR1 potential. 7/102 is a pretty nice stat line considering Trubisky had an awful night. 

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9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Not sure this will continue.  Their best TE was out and they threw the ball WAY more than they will need to in most games.

So his targets will drop to 10/game?   That's still a WR1. 

I only own him in 1 of 8 leagues and wish I targeted him more, but he's locked in as a flex or my WR3 all season.

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

So his targets will drop to 10/game?   That's still a WR1.

He had 1 game of 10+ targets in 2018 (Week 2).  This offense is better on paper and should be more capable of spreading the ball around to people other than Robinson.  If you want to tell me that he will be getting 8/9 targets per game, I'm right there with you.

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

He had 1 game of 10+ targets in 2018 (Week 2).  This offense is better on paper and should be more capable of spreading the ball around to people other than Robinson.  If you want to tell me that he will be getting 8/9 targets per game, I'm right there with you.

so 10 is crazy but 9 is where you see it?

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Just now, tangfoot said:

He had 1 game of 10+ targets in 2018 (Week 2).  This offense is better on paper and should be more capable of spreading the ball around to people other than Robinson.  If you want to tell me that he will be getting 8/9 targets per game, I'm right there with you.

He wasn't healthy last year for most of the year. He looked like a top 5 WR out there last night. Not just the stats but the way he was destroying whoever they put in front of him and catching everything. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

$26/500

:wub: 

If the Bears ever get a good QB I’m set! 

Straight thievin'.

I'm looking back at all my redrafts. I got him for a range of 4.5% to 6.5% in 5 out of 6 redrafts. Was only able to acquire him in one dynasty this offseason. Let's hope he stays healthy this year...

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