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I've been meaning to put this together for some time. For our newer US soccer fans, here is a little primer of things to know about the history of your team and some of the background of internationa

not a soccer fan here, how does this work?  Argentina gets ball for the first 45 minutes then the US gets it in the 2nd half?

I didn't get to see a lot of the match because I had a fussy infant and a toddler to get to bed.  I saw the last 30 minutes or so.  I guess that was a blessing.  Even in the last 30 minutes, I found m

1 hour ago, NewlyRetired said:

Not according to Jesse Marsch.  He said only the very top teams in Austria are MLS quality while the majority of the league is lower.  Which means the gap between RBS and most of the Austrian league is cavernous.

Seeing as he coached in both leagues, he probably has a clearer view on this than most do.

This is true, but to be fair to Aaronson, this last stretch of matches is against all the other top teams in the league, a qualifying/playoff round of some kind past the standard round robin.  Belgium appears to be doing this too for the top 4 teams in their league

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1 hour ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

This is true, but to be fair to Aaronson, this last stretch of matches is against all the other top teams in the league, a qualifying/playoff round of some kind past the standard round robin.  Belgium appears to be doing this too for the top 4 teams in their league

Yeah, I was looking up how various power ratings show the strength of MLS vs the Austrian BL (all suggest very similar, on average, once you remove RBS) and noticed that.  At some point in the season they divide the teams into top-6 (who play for the title) and bottom-6 (who fight to avoid relegation).  I assume the schedules are unbalanced in some way or this doesn't really make sense.  It's an interesting idea.

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Yeah, I was looking up how various power ratings show the strength of MLS vs the Austrian BL (all suggest very similar, on average, once you remove RBS) and noticed that.  At some point in the season they divide the teams into top-6 (who play for the title) and bottom-6 (who fight to avoid relegation).  I assume the schedules are unbalanced in some way or this doesn't really make sense.  It's an interesting idea.

The "regular" season is balanced.

There are 12 teams in the league and every team plays 22 games before they move on to the second phase (Championship and Relegation phases).  As you mentioned, this is two groups of 6.

The regular season standings have an ongoing effect even in the playoffs.  Basically what happens is that you carry over half of the points you accumulated in the regular season and that is the point total you start with once the second phase starts.

The second phase is also balanced in that each teams plays each other team home and away.  But this is where it is limited to the 6 teams that are in your phase, so basically you play 10 more total games in the second phase.

For a small league of only 12 teams, I kind of like how this works.

Edited by NewlyRetired
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Posted (edited)

Fun fact (that got mod-removed at Reddit for some reason):  Brighton is ranked #20 in the world according to 538.  I get the reasons, and the flaw with ratings systems is that they're always the worst way to do something, except for all the other ways, but that's pretty funny.

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1 minute ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Fun fact (that got mod-removed at Reddit for some reason):  Brighton is ranked #20 in the world according to 538.  I get the reasons, and the flaw with ratings systems is that they're always the worst way to do something, except for all the other ways, but that's pretty funny.

It is hard enough trying to compare teams/leagues mathematically when at least there is small amount of cross over with in a confederation but when sites like 538 try and compare teams/leagues in different confederations with literally no sample size of teams/leagues ever playing each other it just leaves me scratching my head how they have even the remotest worth.

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27 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

It is hard enough trying to compare teams/leagues mathematically when at least there is small amount of cross over with in a confederation but when sites like 538 try and compare teams/leagues in different confederations with literally no sample size of teams/leagues ever playing each other it just leaves me scratching my head how they have even the remotest worth.

I was wondering that too.

Bottom line is that the starting place for league strength is estimated using market values of the players in that league -- and then adjusted based on actual games played inter-league.  So you could have some leagues that are mostly insulated and based on market values, while others have been updated quite dramatically.  It's better than guessing IMO and over time probably works out about right. 

To the degree that market values are right as a measure of strength, there's no issue at all.  Otherwise leagues that don't "connect" with each other even indirectly could be mismeasured.

FWIW, I think some of the other ratings systems aren't done exactly the same way but they mostly seem to be in synch with each other.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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2 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

oof.  Juve down 0-2, at risk of missing champions league.  Can’t be great for Mr. Swag.

No wonder they wanted the Super League.

3-0 now.  I would be shocked if Pirlo stays as the coach if they miss out on Champions League.

If the team was struggling financially, missing Champions League is going to really hurt them.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I was wondering that too.

Bottom line is that the starting place for league strength is estimated using market values of the players in that league -- and then adjusted based on actual games played inter-league.  So you could have some leagues that are mostly insulated and based on market values, while others have been updated quite dramatically.  It's better than guessing IMO and over time probably works out about right. 

I agree it is better than guessing but it falls far far short for me in place of a knowledgeable person like the Marsch example I gave earlier.

I far more value a coach or player who has coached/played in different leagues giving an opinion rather than something a little better than a guess.

For me intellectually, market value is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.  Brazilian player valuations always come with an added mark up which is not due to the current player but the players that came before him.

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Yeah, if there are problems with market values the starting place is off.

I was trying to think of how many CONCACAF or CONMEBOL games vs UEFA there would be in a five year period (because we have more than enough games between those two Confeds to get the relative strength right).

Seems like at least a few every year, right?  (I don't think club friendlies count.)  So you'd have a sample of maybe ~15 where you'd really prefer like 30-50.  But still, 15 is better than nothing, and it only matters if the initial valuations are off.  I bet they're pretty good most of the time but I can't prove it, so YMMV. 

I would absolutely trust the CONMEBOL vs CONCACAF league ratings or the UEFA internal league ratings though. 

Would be fun to schedule head to head competitions 1-20 like the old ACC vs Big East hoops idea every now and then.  MLS vs English Championship, etc.  Brazil vs France, Argentina vs Netherlands, etc.  Not only awesome to watch, but would make these linkages better.

FWIW, I almost never trust anyone's opinion about anything where I can find data.  We're all barking mad and prone to all kinds of predictable errors (even when we're not crazy).  Not saying Marsch is wrong, just a philosophical thing.

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45 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

3-0 now.  I would be shocked if Pirlo stays as the coach if they miss out on Champions League.

If the team was struggling financially, missing Champions League is going to really hurt them.

My news feed has been getting a fair bit of Juve-centric stuff that talks about swag being a viable player to sell this off-season...purely in terms of market value.

 

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3 minutes ago, El Floppo said:

My news feed has been getting a fair bit of Juve-centric stuff that talks about swag being a viable player to sell this off-season...purely in terms of market value.

See estimates that he's worth $25-30MM.  Maybe I'm crazy but he seems like a great fit for the defend-first-and-play-through-balls #8s Liverpool uses.

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15 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

See estimates that he's worth $25-30MM.  Maybe I'm crazy but he seems like a great fit for the defend-first-and-play-through-balls #8s Liverpool uses.

NotSoBoringMilner2.0

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1 hour ago, El Floppo said:

My news feed has been getting a fair bit of Juve-centric stuff that talks about swag being a viable player to sell this off-season...purely in terms of market value.

I posted this Italian translated article that speculated the same

https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/708312-us-mens-national-team/?do=findComment&comment=23385427

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Posted (edited)

Arriola, McKenzie, Miles Robinson, Otasowie, Roldan, Zimmerman, Vines and Ream seem noteworthy as hints about the possible deep-depth chart, but no big surprises here, right?

If they can gel this will be the best team we've ever put on a field.

The Horvath, Turner, Johnson and Ochoa battle for two spots will be interesting.  You'd have to think the two he keeps for this tournament are the two that will be involved in WCQ.

Same with Yedlin/Reynolds/Cannon.  Do we keep one or two?

How big is the main roster?  I count 41 players here.  We cutting 15-20?  The eight at the top plus two keepers is 10 of them pretty easy barring a big surprise.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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Novakovich with the hat trick today.  Also had an assist in a 4-0 win.

He finishes the Serie B season with 11 goals and 6 assists.... leading the team in both categories.  His team didn't get promoted..... wonder if he had a good enough season to get some looks from a first division European team.

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8 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Arriola, McKenzie, Miles Robinson, Otasowie, Roldan, Zimmerman, Vines and Ream seem noteworthy as hints about the possible deep-depth chart, but no big surprises here, right?

If they can gel this will be the best team we've ever put on a field.

The Horvath, Turner, Johnson and Ochoa battle for two spots will be interesting.  You'd have to think the two he keeps for this tournament are the two that will be involved in WCQ.

Same with Yedlin/Reynolds/Cannon.  Do we keep one or two?

How big is the main roster?  I count 41 players here.  We cutting 15-20?  The eight at the top plus two keepers is 10 of them pretty easy barring a big surprise.

I always forget a player or 2 when seeing these big lists to figure out who might be missing.

I was a little surprised at Konrad (due to no playing time outside of Barca B, and Nips (due to health).

I think GGG will keep 26 from this group to play in the 4 upcoming games.

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29 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

I always forget a player or 2 when seeing these big lists to figure out who might be missing.

I was a little surprised at Konrad (due to no playing time outside of Barca B, and Nips (due to health).

I think GGG will keep 26 from this group to play in the 4 upcoming games.

Konrad jumped out at me too. 

And everything tastes better with Bacon. I guess that's the end of his road too.

Glad to see Yedlin rewarded for a strong season.

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31 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Wow, just realized Boyd, Zardes, Gioacchini, Siebatcheu and KdlF might be tussling over ONE spot.  Maybe two if the rosters is 26 I guess.

So whichever 3/4 you don't keep gets you to 13/14 cuts pretty easy really.  Maybe a surprise or two, but basically you can name at least a dozen fairly likely to go home today.

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36 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Wow, just realized Boyd, Zardes, Gioacchini, Siebatcheu and KdlF might be tussling over ONE spot.  Maybe two if the rosters is 26 I guess.

That's a tough one.  I'd figure how how to take 2 of those 5.  Zardes and Siebatcheu would be my picks right now.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

That's a tough one.  I'd figure how how to take 2 of those 5.  Zardes and Siebatcheu would be my picks right now.

My thinking is that we know Sargent and Dike are locks at this point.  Or think we do.

And we have four wings:  Pulisic, Reyna, Weah and Aaronson.  But Weah can also play in the middle IIRC.  So maybe you only need one from my list, with Weah providing depth behind three forwards and three wings.  At least when we get to WCQ.  (or is that roster going to be expanded too?) 

I'm not convinced any of the five guys I listed actually makes the team better while there probably are some niche roles that could be included elsewhere if you 'buy' an extra spot this way.

Same thing with Dest being able to play both outside back spots and Richards being able to add depth across the entire back line.  You might be able to get away with just seven there - opening up a utility spot.

Even if they weren't obviously in our best 23 I'd take both of those guys (Weah and Richards) just for that reason.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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3 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

That's a tough one.  I'd figure how how to take 2 of those 5.  Zardes and Siebatcheu would be my picks right now.

Behind/along with Dike and Sarge?

I guess. zardes gives the defensive work...giocch might be a similar guy to him. I really don't know enough about Siebs game to know how he fits in...strikes me as a pushed up high #9 who attacks the goal but maybe doesn't do the deeper defensive work the US might need...dunno.

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14 minutes ago, El Floppo said:

Behind/along with Dike and Sarge?

I guess. zardes gives the defensive work...giocch might be a similar guy to him. I really don't know enough about Siebs game to know how he fits in...strikes me as a pushed up high #9 who attacks the goal but maybe doesn't do the deeper defensive work the US might need...dunno.

My thinking is that Zardes is a good sub to protect a lead, or if we're up against a quality side and one of the wings is on a suspension / hurt.  He puts in the work on defense.

My thinking on Siebatcheu is the opposite.  He's a goal scorer, point of attack type player.  I think he can play facing or with his back to the goal, and from what I've seen is a decent poacher.  We don't have enough of those players, and I think he would work out well up front in the formations we've been talking about.  Plus he's in form and is closer to the finished product that Dike.

Edited by The Z Machine
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3 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

My thinking is that Zardes is a good sub to protect a lead, or if we're up against a quality side and one of the wings is on a suspension / hurt.  He puts in the work on defense.

My thinking on Siebatcheu is the opposite.  He's a goal scorer, point of attack type player.  I think he can play facing or with his back to the goal, and from what I've seen is a decent poacher.  We don't have enough of those players, and I think he would work out well up front in the formations we've been talking about.  Plus he's in form and is closer to the finished product that Dike.

That's my sense of Sieb too...but I've really not seen him play much.

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Honestly, it'll likely come down to camp.  Dike, Zardes, Siebatcheu, Giocch, etc. are going to try and showcase who can help the team best.  I think Sarge is a lock at this point barring injury, but I could see him not starting if one of these other guys really show in camp.

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6 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Honestly, it'll likely come down to camp.

hmm, I may be wrong but I don't think this entire list will go to camp. 

I think this list will be used to generate the 26 (or so) players that will go to camp for the 4 games.  From the 26, I think GGG will then generate the various 23 man rosters.  

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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

The Horvath, Turner, Johnson and Ochoa battle for two spots will be interesting.  You'd have to think the two he keeps for this tournament are the two that will be involved in WCQ.

I feel like Turner is a dead lock for the #2 spot.  Unless he puts in a stinker against Switzerland (where he will likely start), I think he is far ahead of the rest.

And while I am not one of them, you will find many seemingly knowledgeable fans who can put in a passionate argument for Turner over Steffen.

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13 minutes ago, El Floppo said:

That's my sense of Sieb too...but I've really not seen him play much.

weird how we can form opinions.  I too have seen very little of him but my mind pictures him exactly as Z (and you) described him.

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Just now, NewlyRetired said:

I feel like Turner is a dead lock for the #2 spot.  Unless he puts in a stinker against Switzerland (where he will likely start), I think he is far ahead of the rest.

And while I am not one of them, you will find many seemingly knowledgeable fans who can put in a passionate argument for Turner over Steffen.

I'm not sure if I've seen Turner play or not - definitely don't have an opinion on him.  But I know some folks are super high on the guy.

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8 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

btw... I think the guy I'm most interested in seeing in this run of games is the guy who lives on the 7th floor.  Showed out in that last run of games IMO.

Always thought it was the second floor. Huh.

But yeah...he's looked fantastic for the US the last couple times out. Would like to see him get a good run with the team, either A or B.

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It's an old quote, but City's Cancello about CP:

Cancelo said of the 22-year-old Blues star: “I usually chat with my colleagues about it.

“It may sound strange but, for me, the most difficult winger I have faced in the Premier League is Pulisic from Chelsea.

“He is a very skilful and fast player with the ball, with quick dribbles, so for me he is the most difficult winger I have played.”

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2 minutes ago, El Floppo said:

It's an old quote, but City's Cancello about CP:

havCancelo said of the 22-year-old Blues star: “I usually chat with my colleagues about it.

“It may sound strange but, for me, the most difficult winger I have faced in the Premier League is Pulisic from Chelsea.

“He is a very skilful and fast player with the ball, with quick dribbles, so for me he is the most difficult winger I have played.”

I mean you can have that or Werner.  FWIW, I'll be more than a little surprised if we have a full roster for Nations.  

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2 hours ago, El Floppo said:

“He is a very skilful and fast player with the ball, with quick dribbles, so for me he is the most difficult winger I have played.”

Pulisic's first step with the ball has to be near tippity top of the world right now.  He turns players constantly and just leaves them in quick sand, which is why he draws so many fouls.   

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Chicharito not on the Nations League list for el tri despite tearing up MLS recently.  He hasn't been selected since 2019. Not sure why Tata doesn't rate him. 

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26 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

I could get see something very close to this for the 23.  The depth behind Adams still is a concern for me.  Hopefully his back problems are minor.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1EqkYrWUAgnrp-?format=jpg&name=large

If Richards isn't starting next to Brooks......

I know I've beat this dead horse, but come on. 

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6 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

If Richards isn't starting next to Brooks......

I know I've beat this dead horse, but come on. 

Don't get caught up in the specifics, I was talking more about the 23 in total.  I too hope Richards starts.

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54 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

I could get see something very close to this for the 23.  The depth behind Adams still is a concern for me.  Hopefully his back problems are minor.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1EqkYrWUAgnrp-?format=jpg&name=large

I guess Richards and Long could play fullback if needed (if Dest is out, there's no real cover at LB).

And yeah...Yueill will scare nobody- not even the region minnows. Decent player and all, but...

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1 minute ago, El Floppo said:

I guess Richards and Long could play fullback if needed (if Dest is out, there's no real cover at LB).

And yeah...Yueill will scare nobody- not even the region minnows. Decent player and all, but...

Personally I would drop one of the three strikers and add one more FB but that is quibbling I guess.  There are always going to be a million variations on the last 3-4 roster spots.

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