What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

US Men's National Team (19 Viewers)

I still can't get over reading through MLS box scores. 

Every week a ton of players are scoring who were snubbed by Kreis and at the same time, I don't know if even a single player on the U23 team has scored yet this season.

 
NewlyRetired said:
*Reynolds with another start for Roma today.

*Massive game later today between Milan and Juve.  They are level on points for the last Champions League spot.
Click to expand...
That Juve Milan game is huge.

If somebody wins, they leapfrog Napoli and go level on points with second place Atalanta (behind on GD). I would imagine CR would move on without CL...might anyways.

 
Just to show how good the situation is for Aaronson is in Austria, he has already matched his goal total he had in Philly, in 35 less games played.

Very happy for him. 

 
With Pulisic not being available for Switzerland, I am interested to see who GGG starts opposite Gio.

I figure it must be between Weah and Aaronson.

 
NewlyRetired said:
Not according to Jesse Marsch.  He said only the very top teams in Austria are MLS quality while the majority of the league is lower.  Which means the gap between RBS and most of the Austrian league is cavernous.

Seeing as he coached in both leagues, he probably has a clearer view on this than most do.
Click to expand...
This is true, but to be fair to Aaronson, this last stretch of matches is against all the other top teams in the league, a qualifying/playoff round of some kind past the standard round robin.  Belgium appears to be doing this too for the top 4 teams in their league

 
Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
This is true, but to be fair to Aaronson, this last stretch of matches is against all the other top teams in the league, a qualifying/playoff round of some kind past the standard round robin.  Belgium appears to be doing this too for the top 4 teams in their league
Click to expand...
Yeah, I was looking up how various power ratings show the strength of MLS vs the Austrian BL (all suggest very similar, on average, once you remove RBS) and noticed that.  At some point in the season they divide the teams into top-6 (who play for the title) and bottom-6 (who fight to avoid relegation).  I assume the schedules are unbalanced in some way or this doesn't really make sense.  It's an interesting idea.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Yeah, I was looking up how various power ratings show the strength of MLS vs the Austrian BL (all suggest very similar, on average, once you remove RBS) and noticed that.  At some point in the season they divide the teams into top-6 (who play for the title) and bottom-6 (who fight to avoid relegation).  I assume the schedules are unbalanced in some way or this doesn't really make sense.  It's an interesting idea.
Click to expand...
The "regular" season is balanced.

There are 12 teams in the league and every team plays 22 games before they move on to the second phase (Championship and Relegation phases).  As you mentioned, this is two groups of 6.

The regular season standings have an ongoing effect even in the playoffs.  Basically what happens is that you carry over half of the points you accumulated in the regular season and that is the point total you start with once the second phase starts.

The second phase is also balanced in that each teams plays each other team home and away.  But this is where it is limited to the 6 teams that are in your phase, so basically you play 10 more total games in the second phase.

For a small league of only 12 teams, I kind of like how this works.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Fun fact (that got mod-removed at Reddit for some reason):  Brighton is ranked #20 in the world according to 538.  I get the reasons, and the flaw with ratings systems is that they're always the worst way to do something, except for all the other ways, but that's pretty funny.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Fun fact (that got mod-removed at Reddit for some reason):  Brighton is ranked #20 in the world according to 538.  I get the reasons, and the flaw with ratings systems is that they're always the worst way to do something, except for all the other ways, but that's pretty funny.
Click to expand...
It is hard enough trying to compare teams/leagues mathematically when at least there is small amount of cross over with in a confederation but when sites like 538 try and compare teams/leagues in different confederations with literally no sample size of teams/leagues ever playing each other it just leaves me scratching my head how they have even the remotest worth.

 
NewlyRetired said:
It is hard enough trying to compare teams/leagues mathematically when at least there is small amount of cross over with in a confederation but when sites like 538 try and compare teams/leagues in different confederations with literally no sample size of teams/leagues ever playing each other it just leaves me scratching my head how they have even the remotest worth.
Click to expand...
I was wondering that too.

Bottom line is that the starting place for league strength is estimated using market values of the players in that league -- and then adjusted based on actual games played inter-league.  So you could have some leagues that are mostly insulated and based on market values, while others have been updated quite dramatically.  It's better than guessing IMO and over time probably works out about right. 

To the degree that market values are right as a measure of strength, there's no issue at all.  Otherwise leagues that don't "connect" with each other even indirectly could be mismeasured.

FWIW, I think some of the other ratings systems aren't done exactly the same way but they mostly seem to be in synch with each other.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
I was wondering that too.

Bottom line is that the starting place for league strength is estimated using market values of the players in that league -- and then adjusted based on actual games played inter-league.  So you could have some leagues that are mostly insulated and based on market values, while others have been updated quite dramatically.  It's better than guessing IMO and over time probably works out about right. 
Click to expand...
I agree it is better than guessing but it falls far far short for me in place of a knowledgeable person like the Marsch example I gave earlier.

I far more value a coach or player who has coached/played in different leagues giving an opinion rather than something a little better than a guess.

For me intellectually, market value is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.  Brazilian player valuations always come with an added mark up which is not due to the current player but the players that came before him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Yeah, if there are problems with market values the starting place is off.

I was trying to think of how many CONCACAF or CONMEBOL games vs UEFA there would be in a five year period (because we have more than enough games between those two Confeds to get the relative strength right).

Seems like at least a few every year, right?  (I don't think club friendlies count.)  So you'd have a sample of maybe ~15 where you'd really prefer like 30-50.  But still, 15 is better than nothing, and it only matters if the initial valuations are off.  I bet they're pretty good most of the time but I can't prove it, so YMMV. 

I would absolutely trust the CONMEBOL vs CONCACAF league ratings or the UEFA internal league ratings though. 

Would be fun to schedule head to head competitions 1-20 like the old ACC vs Big East hoops idea every now and then.  MLS vs English Championship, etc.  Brazil vs France, Argentina vs Netherlands, etc.  Not only awesome to watch, but would make these linkages better.

FWIW, I almost never trust anyone's opinion about anything where I can find data.  We're all barking mad and prone to all kinds of predictable errors (even when we're not crazy).  Not saying Marsch is wrong, just a philosophical thing.

 
NewlyRetired said:
3-0 now.  I would be shocked if Pirlo stays as the coach if they miss out on Champions League.

If the team was struggling financially, missing Champions League is going to really hurt them.
Click to expand...
My news feed has been getting a fair bit of Juve-centric stuff that talks about swag being a viable player to sell this off-season...purely in terms of market value.

 
El Floppo said:
My news feed has been getting a fair bit of Juve-centric stuff that talks about swag being a viable player to sell this off-season...purely in terms of market value.
Click to expand...
See estimates that he's worth $25-30MM.  Maybe I'm crazy but he seems like a great fit for the defend-first-and-play-through-balls #8s Liverpool uses.

 
Arriola, McKenzie, Miles Robinson, Otasowie, Roldan, Zimmerman, Vines and Ream seem noteworthy as hints about the possible deep-depth chart, but no big surprises here, right?

If they can gel this will be the best team we've ever put on a field.

The Horvath, Turner, Johnson and Ochoa battle for two spots will be interesting.  You'd have to think the two he keeps for this tournament are the two that will be involved in WCQ.

Same with Yedlin/Reynolds/Cannon.  Do we keep one or two?

How big is the main roster?  I count 41 players here.  We cutting 15-20?  The eight at the top plus two keepers is 10 of them pretty easy barring a big surprise.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Novakovich with the hat trick today.  Also had an assist in a 4-0 win.

He finishes the Serie B season with 11 goals and 6 assists.... leading the team in both categories.  His team didn't get promoted..... wonder if he had a good enough season to get some looks from a first division European team.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Arriola, McKenzie, Miles Robinson, Otasowie, Roldan, Zimmerman, Vines and Ream seem noteworthy as hints about the possible deep-depth chart, but no big surprises here, right?

If they can gel this will be the best team we've ever put on a field.

The Horvath, Turner, Johnson and Ochoa battle for two spots will be interesting.  You'd have to think the two he keeps for this tournament are the two that will be involved in WCQ.

Same with Yedlin/Reynolds/Cannon.  Do we keep one or two?

How big is the main roster?  I count 41 players here.  We cutting 15-20?  The eight at the top plus two keepers is 10 of them pretty easy barring a big surprise.
Click to expand...
I always forget a player or 2 when seeing these big lists to figure out who might be missing.

I was a little surprised at Konrad (due to no playing time outside of Barca B, and Nips (due to health).

I think GGG will keep 26 from this group to play in the 4 upcoming games.

 
NewlyRetired said:
I always forget a player or 2 when seeing these big lists to figure out who might be missing.

I was a little surprised at Konrad (due to no playing time outside of Barca B, and Nips (due to health).

I think GGG will keep 26 from this group to play in the 4 upcoming games.
Click to expand...
Konrad jumped out at me too. 

And everything tastes better with Bacon. I guess that's the end of his road too.

Glad to see Yedlin rewarded for a strong season.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Wow, just realized Boyd, Zardes, Gioacchini, Siebatcheu and KdlF might be tussling over ONE spot.  Maybe two if the rosters is 26 I guess.
Click to expand...
So whichever 3/4 you don't keep gets you to 13/14 cuts pretty easy really.  Maybe a surprise or two, but basically you can name at least a dozen fairly likely to go home today.

 
The Z Machine said:
That's a tough one.  I'd figure how how to take 2 of those 5.  Zardes and Siebatcheu would be my picks right now.
Click to expand...
My thinking is that we know Sargent and Dike are locks at this point.  Or think we do.

And we have four wings:  Pulisic, Reyna, Weah and Aaronson.  But Weah can also play in the middle IIRC.  So maybe you only need one from my list, with Weah providing depth behind three forwards and three wings.  At least when we get to WCQ.  (or is that roster going to be expanded too?) 

I'm not convinced any of the five guys I listed actually makes the team better while there probably are some niche roles that could be included elsewhere if you 'buy' an extra spot this way.

Same thing with Dest being able to play both outside back spots and Richards being able to add depth across the entire back line.  You might be able to get away with just seven there - opening up a utility spot.

Even if they weren't obviously in our best 23 I'd take both of those guys (Weah and Richards) just for that reason.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Z Machine said:
That's a tough one.  I'd figure how how to take 2 of those 5.  Zardes and Siebatcheu would be my picks right now.
Click to expand...
Behind/along with Dike and Sarge?

I guess. zardes gives the defensive work...giocch might be a similar guy to him. I really don't know enough about Siebs game to know how he fits in...strikes me as a pushed up high #9 who attacks the goal but maybe doesn't do the deeper defensive work the US might need...dunno.

 
El Floppo said:
Behind/along with Dike and Sarge?

I guess. zardes gives the defensive work...giocch might be a similar guy to him. I really don't know enough about Siebs game to know how he fits in...strikes me as a pushed up high #9 who attacks the goal but maybe doesn't do the deeper defensive work the US might need...dunno.
Click to expand...
My thinking is that Zardes is a good sub to protect a lead, or if we're up against a quality side and one of the wings is on a suspension / hurt.  He puts in the work on defense.

My thinking on Siebatcheu is the opposite.  He's a goal scorer, point of attack type player.  I think he can play facing or with his back to the goal, and from what I've seen is a decent poacher.  We don't have enough of those players, and I think he would work out well up front in the formations we've been talking about.  Plus he's in form and is closer to the finished product that Dike.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Z Machine said:
My thinking is that Zardes is a good sub to protect a lead, or if we're up against a quality side and one of the wings is on a suspension / hurt.  He puts in the work on defense.

My thinking on Siebatcheu is the opposite.  He's a goal scorer, point of attack type player.  I think he can play facing or with his back to the goal, and from what I've seen is a decent poacher.  We don't have enough of those players, and I think he would work out well up front in the formations we've been talking about.  Plus he's in form and is closer to the finished product that Dike.
Click to expand...
That's my sense of Sieb too...but I've really not seen him play much.

 
Honestly, it'll likely come down to camp.  Dike, Zardes, Siebatcheu, Giocch, etc. are going to try and showcase who can help the team best.  I think Sarge is a lock at this point barring injury, but I could see him not starting if one of these other guys really show in camp.

 
The Z Machine said:
Honestly, it'll likely come down to camp.
Click to expand...
hmm, I may be wrong but I don't think this entire list will go to camp. 

I think this list will be used to generate the 26 (or so) players that will go to camp for the 4 games.  From the 26, I think GGG will then generate the various 23 man rosters.  

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
The Horvath, Turner, Johnson and Ochoa battle for two spots will be interesting.  You'd have to think the two he keeps for this tournament are the two that will be involved in WCQ.
Click to expand...
I feel like Turner is a dead lock for the #2 spot.  Unless he puts in a stinker against Switzerland (where he will likely start), I think he is far ahead of the rest.

And while I am not one of them, you will find many seemingly knowledgeable fans who can put in a passionate argument for Turner over Steffen.

 
NewlyRetired said:
I feel like Turner is a dead lock for the #2 spot.  Unless he puts in a stinker against Switzerland (where he will likely start), I think he is far ahead of the rest.

And while I am not one of them, you will find many seemingly knowledgeable fans who can put in a passionate argument for Turner over Steffen.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if I've seen Turner play or not - definitely don't have an opinion on him.  But I know some folks are super high on the guy.

 
It's an old quote, but City's Cancello about CP:

Cancelo said of the 22-year-old Blues star: “I usually chat with my colleagues about it.

“It may sound strange but, for me, the most difficult winger I have faced in the Premier League is Pulisic from Chelsea.

“He is a very skilful and fast player with the ball, with quick dribbles, so for me he is the most difficult winger I have played.”

 
El Floppo said:
It's an old quote, but City's Cancello about CP:

havCancelo said of the 22-year-old Blues star: “I usually chat with my colleagues about it.

“It may sound strange but, for me, the most difficult winger I have faced in the Premier League is Pulisic from Chelsea.

“He is a very skilful and fast player with the ball, with quick dribbles, so for me he is the most difficult winger I have played.”
Click to expand...
I mean you can have that or Werner.  FWIW, I'll be more than a little surprised if we have a full roster for Nations.  

 
Julian Green was not on the provisional roster.   That was a name I thought had a chance with a roster this size.

GGG has not given him a single look yet from what I remember.

 
El Floppo said:
“He is a very skilful and fast player with the ball, with quick dribbles, so for me he is the most difficult winger I have played.”
Click to expand...
Pulisic's first step with the ball has to be near tippity top of the world right now.  He turns players constantly and just leaves them in quick sand, which is why he draws so many fouls.   

 
  • Smile
Reactions: Ned
Chicharito not on the Nations League list for el tri despite tearing up MLS recently.  He hasn't been selected since 2019. Not sure why Tata doesn't rate him. 

 
  • Love
Reactions: Ned
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

BassNBrew
  • Poll
Bigger Event - World Cup or Olympics
2
Replies
68
Views
2K
Manster
Manster
snellman
Collectively, A thread to celebrate our kids Non-Athletic accomplishments.
2
Replies
62
Views
1K
Rustoleum
Rustoleum
titusbramble
Darts thread
2
Replies
50
Views
1K
titusbramble
titusbramble

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 20 (members: 0, guests: 20)
Top