My point was that, prior to last year, he was a JAG. After his hot streak, he was going as high as late 2nd/early 3rd round at points this offseason. I don’t ever remember Ware or West ever commanding as high a draft cost.
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RB Damien Williams, ATL (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter buddhacwru
- Start date
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Amazingly he found a way to actually DECREASE his 1.9 YPC this season last night.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I'd love to know the lowest historical YPC for a RB that's gotten 50/100 or more carries in a season.
I gotta believe logic will prevail and they'll cut his carries at some point
but he's on pace for over 100 carries.
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pinequick
Footballguy
This.
Last year's showing was... well, a mirage. Dude had 183 carries in his (5-year) CAREER coming into this season. In none of those years--except for last season--did he average over 4 ypc. His current career yds/rush stands at 3.6. To put it more eloquently and more succinctly, "he's not a good RB."
At this point, any arguments to the contrary are perceptual screens attempting to protect the purveyor from the cognitive dissonance that they invested draft capital in a player who, in a couple of words is, "not good."
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Maybe Bettis that one yr but he had a bunch of tdsI'd love to know the lowest historical YPC for a RB that's gotten 50/100 or more carries in a season.
I gotta believe logic will prevail and they'll cut his carries at some point
Rove!
Footballguy
To counter that, 3.6 ish ypc for the Dolphins should translate into something serviceable in what appears to be a much better situation.
He may be not that good, but neither were Ware or West, and they put up stats in this system.
The bull case for Damien was never that he was going to be the next Jamaal Charles or Priest Holmes or even Thomas Jones. It was always that he was serviceable enough to produce in this system.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I’m not going to sit here and say the guy is a stud. He isnt
But he’s not getting many opportunities, and from what Ive seen his line isn’t doing him any favors
I’m not dropping. But I’m not starting him next week either
But he’s not getting many opportunities, and from what Ive seen his line isn’t doing him any favors
I’m not dropping. But I’m not starting him next week either
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
They have the answer on their roster in McCoy. They simply don't use him enough / waste carries with Damien. I simply don't see them signing Ajayi to deactivate/cut Damien.
As have been saying for weeks upon weeks now, the only place (if active) Damien belongs is on special teams or injury replacement as receiver behind Darrel Williams. Shady is head & shoulders above Damien/Darrel as a rusher. It's comical to me that Damien is even getting carries anymore. Darrel has very good long speed & great hands but the quicks of a fullback.....he's STILL a better option as a north-south runner than Damien. Damien's problem is he's a 220+ pounds RB that tries to run like a scatback and isn't quick enough.
I've watched every preseason/regular single carry Shady's had this year many many times and he's looked terrific. Is he prime Lesean McCoy? No. But he's much much much much much much much much much much better than anything else KC has as a runner. I lost count of the # of people I blocked this preseason that said he was done and just completely ignored how he looked with Buffalo this preseason. I mean if you're not going to actually watch things, your opinion is completely meaningless. Wonderful he didn't look good with a horrible Buffalo line with a rookie QB in 2018. Means zippo for 2019. He's looked terrific all year this season. People are completely ignoring he's average 5.4 YPC.....and that includes Andy Reid given he's still giving Damien any carries. Damien Williams has zero business getting carries -- whether for Shady or Darrel.
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dkp993
Footballguy
Yeah the line looks bad against the run. Shady got stuffed all night too with the exception of 2 runs, 1 was him flashing the old shady and making something out of nothing and the second was a wide open hole up the middle. The rest looked just like it did for DWill.
I never did (and still don’t) have high expectations for DWill, but I’ve been holding on to the possibility of the one big run a game or 1 wheelhouse route like in the preseason to come to fruition. It just hasn’t yet. That’s all still very possible once Mahomes gets healthy but he will likely be sitting on my bench when it does. He’s just doing to much damage to my starting line each week to continue to hold out hope.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
The opportunities he is getting, he's running for a yard or two and kaput. I didn't see any vision or push when he got the ball in last night's game.
Yes, the O line isn't all-pro, but Shady manages to look fairly decent when he seeks and hits a hole. I just don't see that from Damien.
If we assume the usage is what it is, no one except for Shady is utile.
Rove!
Footballguy
If they gave McCoy 20+ carries he would not last the season. This is a team looking to make a deep run. Also, McCoy is not a great receiver nor pass protector. There is no way he will be a 3 down back. They will need the COP back plus a passing down back.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The main difference being Alex Smith.
Moore makes this situation a lot worse until Mahomes gets back.
I think that was too steep a price to pay certainly, just pointing out why Will7ams went higher.
Ware had Kareem Hunt breathing down his neck at the time as well.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
They're wasting carries with Damien. Whether they go to Shady/Darrel/Darwin......someone off the street.
Outside of Kalen Ballage, Damien is the worst rusher to see an NFL field this season. Horrible, Horrible, Horrible.
Just stunning to me he's still seeing carries.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Agreed.
Although it would be interesting to see Jay in this offense, he is a guy who gets better with more Carrie's and that won't happen with Reid.
Plus McCoy looks good so I doubt Ajayi would be better than him.
Rove!
Footballguy
He was serviceable with Miami and much more than serviceable in limited reps last year.
what happened to him? Did he unlearn how to find a hole? Did the Chiefs change their blocking schemes?
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
JMO He's a serviceable ST guy that can fill in on 3rds. Nothing wrong with that.
His vision is terrible. Did reasonably well with fresh legs end of last year
If they need someone for carries (and don't want to give them to Shady/Darrel), they'd be better off signing Spencer Ware for that.
The guy he reminds me of is Ty Montgomery. Guys with terrible vision and have a complete lack of instincts running the football but can provide help in a pinch as pass down back.
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IheartGuinness
Footballguy
Same here. I don't really get all the hate for this guy. I picked him up off waivers last year and he helped me win a championship. I don't think he suddenly lost the ability that he displayed last season.
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Truebluey
Footballguy
One of the better players in our league took him in the third, so don't feel too bad.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I got him in the fifth so it's not awful. Obviously I'd like this to be going better though.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
dmac37
Footballguy
stubby
Footballguy
If he’s out three weeks, that means he’s back week 11. My expectation, and I’ve read others that believe the same thing, is since week 12 is KC bye, they hold him out until week 13.
Rove!
Footballguy
stubby
Footballguy
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Chaka
Footballguy
I drafted him expecting 12-15 opportunities/game and technically he has hit that with 60 oops in 5 games.
But week 1 was 19 rushes + targets and McCoy had been with the team less than a week.
In his last 4 games, with his injury and the full integration of McCoy into the offense, he has 10.25 opps/game. In that offense maybe that would be enough.
But...in the three games since his return he has 8.333 opps/game.
Darrell seems to be a low opportunity guy with Damien in the lineup with 6 opportunities in 4 games played together, all of which came over the last two games.
Ooof...so what is the reality here? I think we can all agree that week 1's 19 opps was an outlier. Can we say the same about 2 opps and in week 6? Probably. Or does he eventually get the opportunity to supplant Damien?
So, can we expect 13 touches/game going forward (removing both outliers)? More with Mahomes out? They couldn't possibly be less efficient touches than they have been.
What do you do with this guy?
But week 1 was 19 rushes + targets and McCoy had been with the team less than a week.
In his last 4 games, with his injury and the full integration of McCoy into the offense, he has 10.25 opps/game. In that offense maybe that would be enough.
But...in the three games since his return he has 8.333 opps/game.
Darrell seems to be a low opportunity guy with Damien in the lineup with 6 opportunities in 4 games played together, all of which came over the last two games.
Ooof...so what is the reality here? I think we can all agree that week 1's 19 opps was an outlier. Can we say the same about 2 opps and in week 6? Probably. Or does he eventually get the opportunity to supplant Damien?
So, can we expect 13 touches/game going forward (removing both outliers)? More with Mahomes out? They couldn't possibly be less efficient touches than they have been.
What do you do with this guy?
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't think you're wrong. For what it's worth, I dropped Damien for a lottery ticket in a short bench league, because he essentially appears to be stuck right in an unproductive timeshare, only popping for goal line carries and screens.
That said, I'd hold Damien over Darrel, who seems to be their third-down back.
Chaka
Footballguy
Agreed. I put in an obligatory waiver claim for Ty Johnson, dropping Darrell. I won't get Ty with my priority but it just seemed obvious that Darrell was the sacrifice.
But I am seriously considering making a claim for a Gus Edwards and/or Guice for Darrell and/or Damien.
Just not sure where the value is in that backfield at this point. Does the Mahomes injury help? I'm hoping so if only to bolster trade value. Like I said, Damien could hardly be less efficient than he has been with Mahomes.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, ESPN has a calculation by Mike Clay about potential fantasy points, which takes into account situation and number of touches. Damien is constantly underperforming his supposed fantasy points target, which they say is good because volume breeds points and he'll supposedly positively regress to the mean of replacement efficiency.
So there's that sort of potential value.
Thing is: What if he's just not very good? I'm just not seeing it right now and benches are really short in the league I have him.
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dkp993
Footballguy
The odds are he’s gonna pop at some point and take a screen pass or wheel route 60 yards to the house but how many more eggs does he lay until then? What’s clear as day is he can’t be counted on for any kind of consistency (other then consistently crappy performances) even in this offense.
Chaka
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Big emphasis on the bolded. His .5 PPR scores the past seven weeks?
15.5, 7.1, X, X, 5.3, 8.5, 1.6
X means he sat.
That's not really that great, regardless of ADP. If you want a lottery ticket, there are better to chase after, IMHO. Like I said upthread, though, he's been woefully inefficient with volume and should positively regress to the mean, meaning more points. But I wasn't waiting.
Full disclosure: I dropped him. FBG actually printed (I read this after I did it) that "he's droppable." Their words.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not sure that is true. After week 7 most wires are pretty slim pickens. It's pretty much grabbing someone and hoping for an injury.
From that perspective I think you can do worse than McCoy's backup.
Eric Fisher's status is also something that should be monitored. I think his absence is hurting the whole team more than we realize.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I think you would have to be nuts to drop him now knowing PH is out for a bit. Its at least worth the risk to see how Reid approaches this and it may be he leans hard on the run as well as Moore having a ton of dump off passes. I am curious who is on the wire with that much potential?
rockaction
Footballguy
By lottery ticket, I did indeed mean holding for essentially an injury because Damien is getting out-touched by McCoy by quite a bit. It's not 1A and 1B. It's pretty clearly McCoy right now.
But you are right about injury risk to McCoy, given his age.
And they do miss Fisher.
rockaction
Footballguy
Well, say you have about four or five spots allotted for RBs and you choose, in PPR, to hold James White, Josh Jacobs, LeSean McCoy, and Kareem Hunt before you have to bid on him. In your IR spot you have Guice. That's where I find myself. I'd gladly give up D. Williams for two weeks' production -- as it stands -- for Hunt in Week Ten.
That's just what I'm doing. YMMV. I personally don't really love Damien's game.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
I dont know man, Hunt? I get both are risky but you have no idea what is going on in Cleveland and Chubb is doing pretty well. Thats a tough call. I would wait one week especially since LM has been gimpy this year. Like I said I could see Moore having a ton of drop off passes to both shady and DW. I would just wait a week if at all possible. But damn Hunt is the total wildcard
rockaction
Footballguy
Yep. I'm fully aware of running headlong into Chubb's excellence. It's a risk. A quick explanation: In that league, we have eleven starters, five bench spots, one IR. You need (or want) to hold three quarterbacks because it's Superflex. It's start 3 WR, so you'd better have two extra for byes. That leaves you with two RB spots, or one RB and one flex, which is where I find myself. So you're playing almost everybody and you want your lottery tickets to be lottery tickets. Plus, KC has their bye in Week 12, so holding McCoy and Williams is even tougher with that short bench. You'll have to drop somebody to field a lineup.
It's really that leagues are highly individualized, which is why I bolded what I bolded in tricky92's statement. Depends on size/composition of league and bench
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
Thinking about dropping him for Jamaal Williams, for what it's worth.
stubby
Footballguy
I dropped him. Meaning Williams. Standard league though. I just couldn't justify holding him any longer.Yesssss Williams. Sorry for the lack of clarity. . It is the Williams thread
