Biabreakable
Footballguy
2012 Peterson in 16 games had 74.4% of the offensive snaps
2013 Peterson in 14 games had 64.7% of the offensive snaps pro rated to 16 games would be 74%
2014 Peterson is 1 game had 74% of the offensive snaps
Norv Turner wnet out of his way to say that they want to get Peterson out in space and use him more than he has been previously in the passing game. Along with that he has said he does not want to see Peterson blocking defensive linemen or linebackers. How I interpret this is that Peterson will be spelled by another RB on some obvious passing downs where they may be asking the RB to block. I can see Asiata or McKinnon being used in these situations and some 3rd downs.
In 2014 the Vikings targeted RB 118 times. Asiata led all Rb with 63 targets.McKinnon had 41 targets in 11 games played. McKinnon may have had more if he remained healthy at the end of the season.
Peterson had 3 targets in the only game he played last season. Over 16 games this would be 48 targets. Peterson had had 50 or more targets 3 times in his career thus far, the last time being 2012 where he had 51 targets.
If Peterson does play 74% of the offensive snaps and the Vikings target him as frequently as they would Asiata or McKinnon that would be 87 targets.
So if I consider 48 targets as the low and 87 as the high this averages out to 68 targets. 68 targets would be 11 higher than Peterson's highest number of 57 which happened with Favre in 2009. However we have not seen how much Norv Turner will use him as a receiver for a full season yet. The Vikings were willing to target Asiata 63 times in 15 games which pro rates to 67 targets. So close to this 68 target median projection for Peterson in 2015. I do expect Peterson to be used over Asiata moreso than McKinnon and Peterson's targets to occur more on 1st and 2nd downs.
Based on this I am expecting Peterson to be targeted 48-67-78 times if healthy for 16 games. I do expect McKinnon to maintain a significant role in the passing game, however I expect the Vikings offense to improve in total plays also which is the basis of calculating the upside targets to 78.
Peterson has a career catch rate of 71.2% which using the target numbers above is 34-48-57 receptions.
Now it is possible that Peterson catches the ball at a higher than his career catch rate, because I think Bridgewater is a better QB than what Peterson has worked with for most of his career. For example in 2009 Peterson's catch rate was 75.4%
Another factor to consider is that the Vikings only ran 981 total offensive plays in 2014. If their defense improves again, as I expect it to based on Zimmers track record of defensive improvement in his second season as DC in multiple spots, as well as the significant additions of Eric Kendricks and Trae Waynes through the draft as well as expected improvement from Xavier Rhodes and Anthony Barr. I also expect the Vikings offense to improve due to Bridgewater having some experience in the offense now, further experience for Charles Johnson and Patterson, the addition of Mike Wallace who I think fits the offense better than Greg Jennings and obviously the return of Peterson.
So because of the above I can see the Vikings running 1020-1050-1080 offensive plays. The upside of adding 100 offensive plays seems unlikely, but I definitely could see them having 1050 total plays.
The Vikings passed the ball 52.7% of their plays in 2014 with Peterson back they may run the ball more, however I expect them to lean on him a bit more on Bridgewater than they did as a rookie. So I consider these two factors to be somewhat of a wash and for run to pass balance to remain about the same. 52.7% passing attempts.
Based on total play numbers above that would be 538-553-569 pasing attempts.
RBs had 22.8% of the passing targets in 2014 if this continues the RB would have 122-126-130 targets.
If the RB split targets 60% for Peterson 30% for McKinnon and 10% for Asiata that would be:
Peterson 73-75-78 targets
McKinnon 37-38-39 targets
Asiata 12-13 targets.
2013 Peterson in 14 games had 64.7% of the offensive snaps pro rated to 16 games would be 74%
2014 Peterson is 1 game had 74% of the offensive snaps
Norv Turner wnet out of his way to say that they want to get Peterson out in space and use him more than he has been previously in the passing game. Along with that he has said he does not want to see Peterson blocking defensive linemen or linebackers. How I interpret this is that Peterson will be spelled by another RB on some obvious passing downs where they may be asking the RB to block. I can see Asiata or McKinnon being used in these situations and some 3rd downs.
In 2014 the Vikings targeted RB 118 times. Asiata led all Rb with 63 targets.McKinnon had 41 targets in 11 games played. McKinnon may have had more if he remained healthy at the end of the season.
Peterson had 3 targets in the only game he played last season. Over 16 games this would be 48 targets. Peterson had had 50 or more targets 3 times in his career thus far, the last time being 2012 where he had 51 targets.
If Peterson does play 74% of the offensive snaps and the Vikings target him as frequently as they would Asiata or McKinnon that would be 87 targets.
So if I consider 48 targets as the low and 87 as the high this averages out to 68 targets. 68 targets would be 11 higher than Peterson's highest number of 57 which happened with Favre in 2009. However we have not seen how much Norv Turner will use him as a receiver for a full season yet. The Vikings were willing to target Asiata 63 times in 15 games which pro rates to 67 targets. So close to this 68 target median projection for Peterson in 2015. I do expect Peterson to be used over Asiata moreso than McKinnon and Peterson's targets to occur more on 1st and 2nd downs.
Based on this I am expecting Peterson to be targeted 48-67-78 times if healthy for 16 games. I do expect McKinnon to maintain a significant role in the passing game, however I expect the Vikings offense to improve in total plays also which is the basis of calculating the upside targets to 78.
Peterson has a career catch rate of 71.2% which using the target numbers above is 34-48-57 receptions.
Now it is possible that Peterson catches the ball at a higher than his career catch rate, because I think Bridgewater is a better QB than what Peterson has worked with for most of his career. For example in 2009 Peterson's catch rate was 75.4%
Another factor to consider is that the Vikings only ran 981 total offensive plays in 2014. If their defense improves again, as I expect it to based on Zimmers track record of defensive improvement in his second season as DC in multiple spots, as well as the significant additions of Eric Kendricks and Trae Waynes through the draft as well as expected improvement from Xavier Rhodes and Anthony Barr. I also expect the Vikings offense to improve due to Bridgewater having some experience in the offense now, further experience for Charles Johnson and Patterson, the addition of Mike Wallace who I think fits the offense better than Greg Jennings and obviously the return of Peterson.
So because of the above I can see the Vikings running 1020-1050-1080 offensive plays. The upside of adding 100 offensive plays seems unlikely, but I definitely could see them having 1050 total plays.
The Vikings passed the ball 52.7% of their plays in 2014 with Peterson back they may run the ball more, however I expect them to lean on him a bit more on Bridgewater than they did as a rookie. So I consider these two factors to be somewhat of a wash and for run to pass balance to remain about the same. 52.7% passing attempts.
Based on total play numbers above that would be 538-553-569 pasing attempts.
RBs had 22.8% of the passing targets in 2014 if this continues the RB would have 122-126-130 targets.
If the RB split targets 60% for Peterson 30% for McKinnon and 10% for Asiata that would be:
Peterson 73-75-78 targets
McKinnon 37-38-39 targets
Asiata 12-13 targets.
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