2023 Rookie Thoughts (1 Viewer)

[Soulfly3]

They redrafted and took Flowers at 13?

Wish I was in that league

I don't have any issues with that ranking...JSN could eventually end up pretty far up that list and I have zero issue ranking him higher but there is a legit case to be made for everyone listed above him...there is absolutely nothing egregious there.

it's SuperFlex, so I guess Richardson being above him is fine (I don't agree, but it's fine).

Achane? Rice? Bryce? Bijan?

Wouldn't take any of them over Flowers. And then, like I said, it comes down to preference for who you rank where (I have Flowers very, very high)

 

[Boston]

They redrafted and took Flowers at 13?

Wish I was in that league

I don't have any issues with that ranking...JSN could eventually end up pretty far up that list and I have zero issue ranking him higher but there is a legit case to be made for everyone listed above him...there is absolutely nothing egregious there.

it's SuperFlex, so I guess Richardson being above him is fine (I don't agree, but it's fine).

Achane? Rice? Bryce? Bijan?

Wouldn't take any of them over Flowers. And then, like I said, it comes down to preference for who you rank where (I have Flowers very, very high)

I like Flowers but I can easily see taking Bijan and Achane over him...every draft is pumping out talented WRs and while Flowers is a good one I don't see him being elite...I always build my team around WRs but it is much easier to find the next Flowers than the next Achane now that we have seen them for a year...as for Richardson that is a real easy call in the SF format.

 

[menobrown]

They redrafted and took Flowers at 13?

Wish I was in that league

I had a lot of disagreement over whoever was doing this draft.

bijan included,

But this was not one of them.

 

[Soulfly3]

They redrafted and took Flowers at 13?

Wish I was in that league

I had a lot of disagreement over whoever was doing this draft.

bijan included,

But this was not one of them.

i like the talent... (overrated, but good)... but hate the landing spot. until they coach coach/qb of course

 

[joey]

They redrafted and took Flowers at 13?

Wish I was in that league

I had a lot of disagreement over whoever was doing this draft.

bijan included,

But this was not one of them.

i like the talent... (overrated, but good)... but hate the landing spot. until they coach coach/qb of course

Picking situation over talent is why I drafted Quentin over Flowers. Not making that mistake again.
Bijan is talent. His situation will change (improve). Heck, it can’t get much worse, right?

 

[ffmail4me]

Atlanta is going to have a new QB and probably a new coach next year. I expect a bounce back year for all their skilled position players.

 

[Dez]

Here is the youtube video and thread for comments if any of you would like to voice them to the guys doing the draft. These guys are really good about interaction with the public and I am sure they would be happy to comment on any takes you have with their picks. Every time they do a live stream they always answer 100% of my questions/posts.

Re-Drafting 2023 Dynasty Rookie Drafts - Superflex (2 Rounds)

Re-Drafting 2023 Dynasty Rookie Drafts - Superflex (2 Rounds)Bush and Danny are teaming up to break down a massive review of the 2023 rookie draft prospects ...

www.youtube.com

 

[Dez]

Remember when Hopkins was considered a miss after year 1 and many put C Patterson way above him heading into year 2 and it was Hopkins who ended up being the stud for many years not Patterson. I feel like JSN is getting the Hopkins year 1 treatment.

 

[Rookiefever]

They redrafted and took Flowers at 13?

Wish I was in that league

Even worse they took Bryce ahead of him. I’m positive I’d have Bryce outside of the top 24. I’d be ok with missing out on him too even if he ends up a top ten qb

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

A format where Bryce Young is valued above Flowers and JSN isn't one for me.

 

[Soulfly3]

Superflex makes no sense to me... So lets just ignore the QBs for a minute...

Rice? Over flowers?

Again, my love for Flowers since pre-draft is well documented. He's an elite level talent. I know he didn't exactly explode, but he more than showed what he's capable of. It's there to see. He is unstoppable w the ball in his hands

 

[joey]

Superflex makes no sense to me... So lets just ignore the QBs for a minute...

Rice? Over flowers?

Again, my love for Flowers since pre-draft is well documented. He's an elite level talent. I know he didn't exactly explode, but he more than showed what he's capable of. It's there to see. He is unstoppable w the ball in his hands

I can see Rice and Flowers being within a couple of draft slots from each other. Both performed well as rookies. One is in a pass-heavy offense and one in a run-heavy offense. Not like either of their QBs is changing any time soon.

That said, yeah, I’d draft Flowers ahead of Rice.

 

[Ilov80s]

Remember when Hopkins was considered a miss after year 1 and many put C Patterson way above him heading into year 2 and it was Hopkins who ended up being the stud for many years not Patterson. I feel like JSN is getting the Hopkins year 1 treatment.

Interesting comp, I had to look back to see what those guys rookie years were like. They were drafted 2 slots apart in the NFL draft. Their rookie seasons were pretty comparable. Patterson scored less than 20 more fantasy points than Hopkins did.

 

[menobrown]

Remember when Hopkins was considered a miss after year 1 and many put C Patterson way above him heading into year 2 and it was Hopkins who ended up being the stud for many years not Patterson. I feel like JSN is getting the Hopkins year 1 treatment.

Interesting comp, I had to look back to see what those guys rookie years were like. They were drafted 2 slots apart in the NFL draft. Their rookie seasons were pretty comparable. Patterson scored less than 20 more fantasy points than Hopkins did.

I don't have same recollection as Dez. Hopkins had over 800 yards as the secondary WR to Andre Johnson. I don't recall anyone thinking he was a miss. But Patterson was viewed higher, a decent amount. I did a startup after their rookie seasons and I took Hopkins at the 4/5 turn(which again is a sign he was not considered a miss) but Patterson went at the 2/3 turn. Give or take a pick exactly two full rounds above him.

But I don't get the comp. Different style of players, JSN was generally the third pick in most drafts of mine and went as high as second, Hopkins was mainly going 8-9. Also could count a ton of examples of players like Harry and Treadwell who were picked as high as JSN that never panned out.

I'd have went more like how ASRB was viewed 12 games after this rookie season or heck even after this rookie season because I recall a lot of people here saying stuff like at most they'd give up second for him. That's more the style of player I view him as potentially being and IMO a better reminder of how we just don't know a players upside after a year. I almost cut ASRB a week before his breakout, actually listed him as a cut but did not get my waiver claim, thank god.

JSN will easily improve and put up more stats,and I don't consider him a bust or a miss but no one can honestly say they still have him ranked as the second or third best player like they did either. Not right now, no way. While he did make a few nice grabs I can't say anything about him looked like a special talent. I thought Addison, Flowers and Reed showed me more from both a versatility and a big play ability. Everyone needs volume to be good for fantasy, some need it more then others and JSN is one of those to me. But he's young and really has not played a whole lot of football with just one full season of college before this year. Obviously big key for him is just getting on the field more and not being such a distant third option in the WR pecking order, that should eventually come.

 

[Down Under]

I did a startup after their rookie seasons and I took Hopkins at the 4/5 turn(which again is a sign he was not considered a miss) but Patterson went at the 2/3 turn

yikes…not that I haven’t made picks like that

 

[Tanner9919]

I mean, CJ Stroud is the ORY there's no one close.

 

[Soulfly3]

I mean, CJ Stroud is the ORY there's no one close.

I'd honestly give him the MVP, period.

 

[joey]

I mean, CJ Stroud is the ORY there's no one close.

I'd honestly give him the MVP, period.

3-13-1 to 10-7. Just an amazing turn around.

 

[Boone22]

I mean, CJ Stroud is the ORY there's no one close.

I know he won’t get it but Puka should be under consideration.

 

[Streetduck]

If Puka breaks the rookie receiving record this week he should win.

 

[rockaction]

If Puka breaks the rookie receiving record this week he should win

Stroud is breaking rookie records at QB despite missing time with his concussion.

It's really almost a no-brainer. He plays the toughest position in pro sports, one that takes guys years to learn, and he is making it look easy. I don't want EBF's thread to degenerate into a OROY argument, but it's got to be C.J. Stroud.

 

[jwb]

I did a startup after their rookie seasons and I took Hopkins at the 4/5 turn(which again is a sign he was not considered a miss) but Patterson went at the 2/3 turn

yikes…not that I haven’t made picks like that

Rookie 1.1 (Crabtree) and Eddie Royal at the 1/2 turn. That team never competed.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

If Puka breaks the rookie receiving record this week he should win

Stroud's breaking rookie records at QB despite missing time with his concussion.

It's really almost a no-brainer. He plays the toughest position in pro sports, one that takes guys years to learn, and he's making it look easy. I don't want EBF's thread to degenerate into a OROY argument, but it's got to be C.J. Stroud.

The award always goes to a QB if one is worthy. Many years, no one is. This year, Stroud is.

 

[BespokeJort]

Hard to argue with stroud in there. but it's just a mix of flowers, jsn, addison, gibbs, nacua, dell and laporta for me. the other names, bijan included, are a step below.

I like flowers a lot but I’d break my phone smashing accept if offered bijan for him in dyno

Lot of weird calls in that list. Downs over Kincaid in TEP?

 

[EBF]

It's always really hard to strike the right balance in dynasty between being too reactive and too rigid. There are four extremes with young talent:

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

There's no magic formula for always slotting guys into the right bin. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of 2nd year running backs since there's a tendency to overgeneralize decent initial performance into the expectation of enduring success. I'll usually anchor to my initial evaluation more than the winds of the moment, though sometimes it gets me into trouble (see: Trent Richardson). However, I think it's prudent to make exceptions when someone looks exceptional. Sometimes guys flash in such a strong way that their greatness seems undeniable (I'd put the likes of Jefferson, JTaylor, and Stroud here). Problem is that the price tag escalates quickly if you missed the train leaving the station.

On that note, I'm not willing or able to rank the rookies going into year two, but I'd suggest that the obsession with rankings is somewhat misguided anyway. It doesn't really matter who's #1, who's #5, who's #10, etc. A more useful way to frame it is to consider which players are the best buy/sell relative to how you value them vs. how the consensus values them. If you see a "profit margin" between a guy you think is good vs. a generally apathetic general opinion, that may be an opportunity to pounce. Trey McBride would've been one of those for me going into this season. Maybe Alec Pierce is another from that class.

I don't always get those right, but I know if people are cooling on the likes of Pitts (2021 class), Bijan, and JSN then they may become especially attractive buys. On the other hand, if the hype train is getting too crazy around guys like Rice and Nacua then maybe your early riser becomes a sell high candidate. It's more important to hunt those margins than to trouble yourself with devising perfect rankings of every single player.

 

[abrunn1133]

It's always really hard to strike the right balance in dynasty between being too reactive and too rigid. There are four extremes with young talent:

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

There's no magic formula for always slotting guys into the right bin. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of 2nd year running backs since there's a tendency to overgeneralize decent initial performance into the expectation of enduring success. I'll usually anchor to my initial evaluation more than the winds of the moment, though sometimes it gets me into trouble (see: Trent Richardson). However, I think it's prudent to make exceptions when someone looks exceptional. Sometimes guys flash in such a strong way that their greatness seems undeniable (I'd put the likes of Jefferson, JTaylor, and Stroud here). Problem is that the price tag escalates quickly if you missed the train leaving the station.

On that note, I'm not willing or able to rank the rookies going into year two, but I'd suggest that the obsession with rankings is somewhat misguided anyway. It doesn't really matter who's #1, who's #5, who's #10, etc. A more useful way to frame it is to consider which players are the best buy/sell relative to how you value them vs. how the consensus values them. If you see a "profit margin" between a guy you think is good vs. a generally apathetic general opinion, that may be an opportunity to pounce. Trey McBride would've been one of those for me going into this season. Maybe Alec Pierce is another from that class.

I don't always get those right, but I know if people are cooling on the likes of Pitts (2021 class), Bijan, and JSN then they may become especially attractive buys. On the other hand, if the hype train is getting too crazy around guys like Rice and Nacua then maybe your early riser becomes a sell high candidate. It's more important to hunt those margins than to trouble yourself with devising perfect rankings of every single player.

Trent Richardson started bad?

 

[Gally]

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

Are you referencing their career arc for the "ends bad"? Either way Richardson started out good and quickly fell off the table. I would put him in "Fool's Gold".

I am not sure Hunt is "Fool's Gold". I almost think he is in a different category where he was good when on the field but off field derailed his career a bit but still came back good. While his career was not as long as it could have been he was still a quality starter when on the field.

 

[EBF]

It's always really hard to strike the right balance in dynasty between being too reactive and too rigid. There are four extremes with young talent:

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

There's no magic formula for always slotting guys into the right bin. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of 2nd year running backs since there's a tendency to overgeneralize decent initial performance into the expectation of enduring success. I'll usually anchor to my initial evaluation more than the winds of the moment, though sometimes it gets me into trouble (see: Trent Richardson). However, I think it's prudent to make exceptions when someone looks exceptional. Sometimes guys flash in such a strong way that their greatness seems undeniable (I'd put the likes of Jefferson, JTaylor, and Stroud here). Problem is that the price tag escalates quickly if you missed the train leaving the station.

On that note, I'm not willing or able to rank the rookies going into year two, but I'd suggest that the obsession with rankings is somewhat misguided anyway. It doesn't really matter who's #1, who's #5, who's #10, etc. A more useful way to frame it is to consider which players are the best buy/sell relative to how you value them vs. how the consensus values them. If you see a "profit margin" between a guy you think is good vs. a generally apathetic general opinion, that may be an opportunity to pounce. Trey McBride would've been one of those for me going into this season. Maybe Alec Pierce is another from that class.

I don't always get those right, but I know if people are cooling on the likes of Pitts (2021 class), Bijan, and JSN then they may become especially attractive buys. On the other hand, if the hype train is getting too crazy around guys like Rice and Nacua then maybe your early riser becomes a sell high candidate. It's more important to hunt those margins than to trouble yourself with devising perfect rankings of every single player.

Trent Richardson started bad?

Efficiency-wise? Absolutely. He had 3.6 YPC as a rookie.

There was the one game against the Bengals where he looked like the guy he was supposed to be, and then he just sort of sputtered.

He had a strong rookie season from an FF standpoint because of high volume, but there was never a period in his NFL career where he had sustained efficiency above mediocre. To believe he was going to be great, you had to think it was a Lynch situation where the supporting cast and usage were obscuring his talent, because there wasn't anything in the numbers to suggest he was an effective pro player.

 

[joey]

It's always really hard to strike the right balance in dynasty between being too reactive and too rigid. There are four extremes with young talent:

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

There's no magic formula for always slotting guys into the right bin. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of 2nd year running backs since there's a tendency to overgeneralize decent initial performance into the expectation of enduring success. I'll usually anchor to my initial evaluation more than the winds of the moment, though sometimes it gets me into trouble (see: Trent Richardson). However, I think it's prudent to make exceptions when someone looks exceptional. Sometimes guys flash in such a strong way that their greatness seems undeniable (I'd put the likes of Jefferson, JTaylor, and Stroud here). Problem is that the price tag escalates quickly if you missed the train leaving the station.

On that note, I'm not willing or able to rank the rookies going into year two, but I'd suggest that the obsession with rankings is somewhat misguided anyway. It doesn't really matter who's #1, who's #5, who's #10, etc. A more useful way to frame it is to consider which players are the best buy/sell relative to how you value them vs. how the consensus values them. If you see a "profit margin" between a guy you think is good vs. a generally apathetic general opinion, that may be an opportunity to pounce. Trey McBride would've been one of those for me going into this season. Maybe Alec Pierce is another from that class.

I don't always get those right, but I know if people are cooling on the likes of Pitts (2021 class), Bijan, and JSN then they may become especially attractive buys. On the other hand, if the hype train is getting too crazy around guys like Rice and Nacua then maybe your early riser becomes a sell high candidate. It's more important to hunt those margins than to trouble yourself with devising perfect rankings of every single player.

Trent Richardson started bad?

Efficiency-wise? Absolutely. He had 3.6 YPC as a rookie.

There was the one game against the Bengals where he looked like the guy he was supposed to be, and then he just sort of sputtered.

He had a strong rookie season from an FF standpoint because of high volume, but there was never a period in his NFL career where he had sustained efficiency above mediocre. To believe he was going to be great, you had to think it was a Lynch situation where the supporting cast and usage were obscuring his talent, because there wasn't anything in the numbers to suggest he was an effective pro player.

I thought we all agreed that we’d never mention Trent’s name again on this board.

ugh.

 

[abrunn1133]

It's always really hard to strike the right balance in dynasty between being too reactive and too rigid. There are four extremes with young talent:

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

There's no magic formula for always slotting guys into the right bin. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of 2nd year running backs since there's a tendency to overgeneralize decent initial performance into the expectation of enduring success. I'll usually anchor to my initial evaluation more than the winds of the moment, though sometimes it gets me into trouble (see: Trent Richardson). However, I think it's prudent to make exceptions when someone looks exceptional. Sometimes guys flash in such a strong way that their greatness seems undeniable (I'd put the likes of Jefferson, JTaylor, and Stroud here). Problem is that the price tag escalates quickly if you missed the train leaving the station.

On that note, I'm not willing or able to rank the rookies going into year two, but I'd suggest that the obsession with rankings is somewhat misguided anyway. It doesn't really matter who's #1, who's #5, who's #10, etc. A more useful way to frame it is to consider which players are the best buy/sell relative to how you value them vs. how the consensus values them. If you see a "profit margin" between a guy you think is good vs. a generally apathetic general opinion, that may be an opportunity to pounce. Trey McBride would've been one of those for me going into this season. Maybe Alec Pierce is another from that class.

I don't always get those right, but I know if people are cooling on the likes of Pitts (2021 class), Bijan, and JSN then they may become especially attractive buys. On the other hand, if the hype train is getting too crazy around guys like Rice and Nacua then maybe your early riser becomes a sell high candidate. It's more important to hunt those margins than to trouble yourself with devising perfect rankings of every single player.

Trent Richardson started bad?

Efficiency-wise? Absolutely. He had 3.6 YPC as a rookie.

There was the one game against the Bengals where he looked like the guy he was supposed to be, and then he just sort of sputtered.

He had a strong rookie season from an FF standpoint because of high volume, but there was never a period in his NFL career where he had sustained efficiency above mediocre. To believe he was going to be great, you had to think it was a Lynch situation where the supporting cast and usage were obscuring his talent, because there wasn't anything in the numbers to suggest he was an effective pro player.

I am not saying that he was good, I am just saying that he did not start off “bad”. 1300/12TDs/51 rec. is not bad, regardless of the number of touches. Was Eddie George a “bad” NFL RB? He averaged 3.6 yards for his entire career.

 

[EBF]

Eddie George had multiple seasons of respectable YPC on high volume.

Trent Richardson...did not.

I'm not going to spend a lot of energy or time arguing about it.

As flops go, he was a big one.

 

[zamboni]

Eddie George had multiple seasons of respectable YPC on high volume.

Trent Richardson...did not.

I'm not going to spend a lot of energy or time arguing about it.

As flops go, he was a big one.

3rd overall pick with one high volume season that propped up his numbers and nothing else thereafter. Agreed, that’s a major bust.

 

[menobrown]

It's always really hard to strike the right balance in dynasty between being too reactive and too rigid. There are four extremes with young talent:

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

There's no magic formula for always slotting guys into the right bin. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of 2nd year running backs since there's a tendency to overgeneralize decent initial performance into the expectation of enduring success. I'll usually anchor to my initial evaluation more than the winds of the moment, though sometimes it gets me into trouble (see: Trent Richardson). However, I think it's prudent to make exceptions when someone looks exceptional. Sometimes guys flash in such a strong way that their greatness seems undeniable (I'd put the likes of Jefferson, JTaylor, and Stroud here). Problem is that the price tag escalates quickly if you missed the train leaving the station.

On that note, I'm not willing or able to rank the rookies going into year two, but I'd suggest that the obsession with rankings is somewhat misguided anyway. It doesn't really matter who's #1, who's #5, who's #10, etc. A more useful way to frame it is to consider which players are the best buy/sell relative to how you value them vs. how the consensus values them. If you see a "profit margin" between a guy you think is good vs. a generally apathetic general opinion, that may be an opportunity to pounce. Trey McBride would've been one of those for me going into this season. Maybe Alec Pierce is another from that class.

I don't always get those right, but I know if people are cooling on the likes of Pitts (2021 class), Bijan, and JSN then they may become especially attractive buys. On the other hand, if the hype train is getting too crazy around guys like Rice and Nacua then maybe your early riser becomes a sell high candidate. It's more important to hunt those margins than to trouble yourself with devising perfect rankings of every single player.

Trent Richardson started bad?

Efficiency-wise? Absolutely. He had 3.6 YPC as a rookie.

There was the one game against the Bengals where he looked like the guy he was supposed to be, and then he just sort of sputtered.

He had a strong rookie season from an FF standpoint because of high volume, but there was never a period in his NFL career where he had sustained efficiency above mediocre. To believe he was going to be great, you had to think it was a Lynch situation where the supporting cast and usage were obscuring his talent, because there wasn't anything in the numbers to suggest he was an effective pro player.

I am not saying that he was good, I am just saying that he did not start off “bad”. 1300/12TDs/51 rec. is not bad, regardless of the number of touches. Was Eddie George a “bad” NFL RB? He averaged 3.6 yards for his entire career.

It's always really hard to strike the right balance in dynasty between being too reactive and too rigid. There are four extremes with young talent:

THE DOA BUST - Starts Bad / Ends Bad (ala Laquon Treadwell, Trent Richardson, Royce Freeman)
THE LATER BLOOMER - Starts Bad / Ends Good (ala Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Thomas Jones)
THE FOOL's GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Bad (ala Sammy Watkins, Chase Claypool, Kareem Hunt)
THE REAL GOLD - Starts Good / Ends Good (ala Marques Colston, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews)

There's no magic formula for always slotting guys into the right bin. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of 2nd year running backs since there's a tendency to overgeneralize decent initial performance into the expectation of enduring success. I'll usually anchor to my initial evaluation more than the winds of the moment, though sometimes it gets me into trouble (see: Trent Richardson). However, I think it's prudent to make exceptions when someone looks exceptional. Sometimes guys flash in such a strong way that their greatness seems undeniable (I'd put the likes of Jefferson, JTaylor, and Stroud here). Problem is that the price tag escalates quickly if you missed the train leaving the station.

On that note, I'm not willing or able to rank the rookies going into year two, but I'd suggest that the obsession with rankings is somewhat misguided anyway. It doesn't really matter who's #1, who's #5, who's #10, etc. A more useful way to frame it is to consider which players are the best buy/sell relative to how you value them vs. how the consensus values them. If you see a "profit margin" between a guy you think is good vs. a generally apathetic general opinion, that may be an opportunity to pounce. Trey McBride would've been one of those for me going into this season. Maybe Alec Pierce is another from that class.

I don't always get those right, but I know if people are cooling on the likes of Pitts (2021 class), Bijan, and JSN then they may become especially attractive buys. On the other hand, if the hype train is getting too crazy around guys like Rice and Nacua then maybe your early riser becomes a sell high candidate. It's more important to hunt those margins than to trouble yourself with devising perfect rankings of every single player.

Trent Richardson started bad?

Efficiency-wise? Absolutely. He had 3.6 YPC as a rookie.

There was the one game against the Bengals where he looked like the guy he was supposed to be, and then he just sort of sputtered.

He had a strong rookie season from an FF standpoint because of high volume, but there was never a period in his NFL career where he had sustained efficiency above mediocre. To believe he was going to be great, you had to think it was a Lynch situation where the supporting cast and usage were obscuring his talent, because there wasn't anything in the numbers to suggest he was an effective pro player.

I am not saying that he was good, I am just saying that he did not start off “bad”. 1300/12TDs/51 rec. is not bad, regardless of the number of touches. Was Eddie George a “bad” NFL RB? He averaged 3.6 yards for his entire career.

He was good enough as a rookie to get back a first round pick.

He’s what I’d have classified as fools gold, and yes I played the fool.

 

[Ilov80s]

Richardson was for sure the fools gold type. I am quite certain in season 2, he was a 1st round pick in redraft. Per Fantasy Football Calculator, TRich was the 10th player in PPR drafts his sophomore year. If you want a great RB DOA example, it's CEH. Trent is great example of Fools Gold.

But that's all kind of unimportant for the overall point EBF was making. How do we properly slot these guys after their rookie years?

 

[Ilov80s]

I like what EBF is saying about playing against the market. A great example from last year is James Cook vs Dameon Pierce. Entering rookie drafts, those guys were pretty close in rookie ADP with Cook generally going a couple spots earlier. After year 1, Pierce was getting juiced up and Cook was seen as a bit of a disappointment. Pierce got production through a larger workload but Cook was really efficient so there was a lot to like from his rookie year. These two should have been seen as equal values if not still a slight edge for Cook. Yet Pierce was much pricier. This was a great spot to take advantage of a change in value that might not have been totally rational.

 

[abrunn1133]

Eddie George had multiple seasons of respectable YPC on high volume.

Trent Richardson...did not.

I'm not going to spend a lot of energy or time arguing about it.

As flops go, he was a big one.

3rd overall pick with one high volume season that propped up his numbers and nothing else thereafter. Agreed, that’s a major bust.

This is so bizarre, it feels like the goalposts are being moved. The statement was that Trent Richardson started off his career “bad”. The only thing I am saying, and have said, is that he did not start his career off “bad”. I agree he was a flop. I agree he was a bust. I agree he was not great, even his rookie season.

 

[EBF]

He was good enough as a rookie to get back a first round pick.

He’s what I’d have classified as fools gold, and yes I played the fool.

Actually somewhat relevant to the discussion in the sense that Indianapolis may have been buying the Alabama tape more so than the Cleveland tape, banking on the idea that a change of surroundings would unlock the "real" Richardson, which clearly didn't happen. In other words, they were not reactive enough. Meanwhile Cleveland dumped him at a loss less than a month into his second season, after seeing him up close for a year. In hindsight they made a great move by cutting their losses.

In terms of him ever being a good NFL player, 3.6 YPC is not good. That doesn't mean there has never been a good RB who had a season with 3.6 YPC. Marshawn Lynch had some rough seasons in Buffalo before his career took off in Seattle. We say he's good because he proved that low YPC is not his level, and not because he had low YPC a couple times. You are not going to be in the HoF as a 3.6 YPC back. You are not even going to keep a starting job.

I'd say Richardson was a bad NFL player propped up by high usage in his first season, but it's really not that essential to the bigger discussion.

Just pretend I used Chris Perry or Bishop Sankey as the example of a DOA bust instead.

 

[BassNBrew]

He was good enough as a rookie to get back a first round pick.

He’s what I’d have classified as fools gold, and yes I played the fool.

Actually somewhat relevant to the discussion in the sense that Indianapolis may have been buying the Alabama tape more so than the Cleveland tape, banking on the idea that a change of surroundings would unlock the "real" Richardson, which clearly didn't happen. In other words, they were not reactive enough. Meanwhile Cleveland dumped him at a loss less than a month into his second season, after seeing him up close for a year. In hindsight they made a great move by cutting their losses.

In terms of him ever being a good NFL player, 3.6 YPC is not good. That doesn't mean there has never been a good RB who had a season with 3.6 YPC. Marshawn Lynch had some rough seasons in Buffalo before his career took off in Seattle. We say he's good because he proved that low YPC is not his level, and not because he had low YPC a couple times. You are not going to be in the HoF as a 3.6 YPC back. You are not even going to keep a starting job.

I'd say Richardson was a bad NFL player propped up by high usage in his first season, but it's really not that essential to the bigger discussion.

Just pretend I used Chris Perry or Bishop Sankey as the example of a DOA bust instead.

There's a name I thought I'd never hear again.

 

[Ilov80s]

He was good enough as a rookie to get back a first round pick.

He’s what I’d have classified as fools gold, and yes I played the fool.

Actually somewhat relevant to the discussion in the sense that Indianapolis may have been buying the Alabama tape more so than the Cleveland tape, banking on the idea that a change of surroundings would unlock the "real" Richardson, which clearly didn't happen. In other words, they were not reactive enough. Meanwhile Cleveland dumped him at a loss less than a month into his second season, after seeing him up close for a year. In hindsight they made a great move by cutting their losses.

In terms of him ever being a good NFL player, 3.6 YPC is not good. That doesn't mean there has never been a good RB who had a season with 3.6 YPC. Marshawn Lynch had some rough seasons in Buffalo before his career took off in Seattle. We say he's good because he proved that low YPC is not his level, and not because he had low YPC a couple times. You are not going to be in the HoF as a 3.6 YPC back. You are not even going to keep a starting job.

I'd say Richardson was a bad NFL player propped up by high usage in his first season, but it's really not that essential to the bigger discussion.

Just pretend I used Chris Perry or Bishop Sankey as the example of a DOA bust instead.

There's a name I thought I'd never hear again.

I had to look back to figure out how and why Bishop Sankey got the draft capital and love that he did entering the NFL. I forgot that his sophomore and junior year, he combined for 67 receptions, 3800 yards and 37 TDs. That is incredible production. Then at the combine he was 5'9" 210, ran a 4.49. I can see why fantasy players were excited about him. With that resume, he would easily be the RB1 in this rookie class.

 

[jtd13]

Richardson was for sure the fools gold type. I am quite certain in season 2, he was a 1st round pick in redraft. Per Fantasy Football Calculator, TRich was the 10th player in PPR drafts his sophomore year. If you want a great RB DOA example, it's CEH. Trent is great example of Fools Gold.

I was definitely the fool. I haven't seen many trades worse than the one I made for Richardson after his rookie year, when I thought I was "buying low" on a super stud.
(going off memory, so it could be a bit off)
Richardson and Dion Lewis (at the time the backup in Cleveland)
for
Lamar Miller
1.04 (LeVeon Bell)
future first (became Brandin Cooks)
Future 2nd (became Allen Robinson)

 

[abrunn1133]

He was good enough as a rookie to get back a first round pick.

He’s what I’d have classified as fools gold, and yes I played the fool.

Actually somewhat relevant to the discussion in the sense that Indianapolis may have been buying the Alabama tape more so than the Cleveland tape, banking on the idea that a change of surroundings would unlock the "real" Richardson, which clearly didn't happen. In other words, they were not reactive enough. Meanwhile Cleveland dumped him at a loss less than a month into his second season, after seeing him up close for a year. In hindsight they made a great move by cutting their losses.

In terms of him ever being a good NFL player, 3.6 YPC is not good. That doesn't mean there has never been a good RB who had a season with 3.6 YPC. Marshawn Lynch had some rough seasons in Buffalo before his career took off in Seattle. We say he's good because he proved that low YPC is not his level, and not because he had low YPC a couple times. You are not going to be in the HoF as a 3.6 YPC back. You are not even going to keep a starting job.

I'd say Richardson was a bad NFL player propped up by high usage in his first season, but it's really not that essential to the bigger discussion.

Just pretend I used Chris Perry or Bishop Sankey as the example of a DOA bust instead.

We can agree to disagree, or maybe we are both right since the argument is generally based on opinion. At any rate, I greatly appreciate what you post (honestly). It is some of the most well thought out, coherent and informative stuff in this entire forum.

 

[Biabreakable]

Sorry to add another post about Trent Richardson here but I will make it relevant to rookie player evaluation in the future.

Richardson was so highly regarded as a prospect that there was talk about the Vikings picking him and having him replace Adrian Peterson who was still in his prime. Reasoning was that Richardson was thought to be similary great RB as Peterson but a better receiver as well.

The Browns even traded up a spot with the Vikings to draft Richardson, which suggests they thought the Vikings might take Richardson before the Browns could, as unlikely as that seemed.

Richardson had everything you look for in a RB prospect. He made defenders miss at a ridiculously high rate. He even did this as a pro as well. It's just that he wouldn't gain many yards after he made defenders miss as a pro. He lacked that special burst to get back up to speed after making a great juke to make the tackle attempt miss. This isn't something we saw at the college level with Richardson. He was able to make big plays after making a defender miss in college. It's just the difference between pro defensive players and college. Richardson flaw was not exposed yet at the college level.

Everyone was fooled not just us youtube armchair "scouts". Real scouts were fooled as well. Richardson was picked 3rd overall.

What I learned is to not value a RB ability to make defenders miss as much as I did prior to that and to value a players burst and acceleration ability more.

I still have made plenty of wrong player evaluations since then. Bishop Sankey being one of those when almost everyone seemed to not believe in him. I admit to playing a bit too much devils advocate there. I thought people were being too cute calling him Bishop Stanky and so on. But they were right.

His flaw was identified as footwork, which is related to change of direction ability but also balance. So I started to learn more about this when evaluating RB afterwards.

For the most part I think I have improved my ability to evaluate RB prospects because of what I learned after these 2 players. I know more about things to look for and I have a better idea about things to look for and what matters for a RB to become successful in the NFL.

As far as Richardson though pretty much everyone was wrong about him. I think there was a motivation, desire to be great factor with Richardson as well. He seemed satisfied with what he got paid as the 3rd overall pick and didn't really get better, as most rookie RB do after their 1st seasons. I think a different attitude or willpower on Richardsons part and maybe he would have developed into a better player than he was. Although I think he still would have failed to meet the very high expectations people had about him.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Should rename this '2012 Rookie Thoughts'.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think @Biabreakable highlighted the most important part at the end: attitude. We have no idea what kind of mental make up these guys have and I think very often that’s the difference. We are talking about guys who are ridiculously good at what they do and the difference between who succeeds and who fails likely isn’t due to athleticism or balance or acceleration but their mindset. Unfortunately it’s mostly unknowable for us and even for NFL teams. Even if a guy was a hard worker with a good attitude in college, people change. Money, adulthood, life experiences, challenges, etc. We just don’t know how people will respond.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

We just don’t know how people will respond.

Especially when they discover Purple Drank.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think @Biabreakable highlighted the most important part at the end: attitude. We have no idea what kind of mental make up these guys have and I think very often that’s the difference. We are talking about guys who are ridiculously good at what they do and the difference between who succeeds and who fails likely isn’t due to athleticism or balance or acceleration but their mindset. Unfortunately it’s mostly unknowable for us and even for NFL teams. Even if a guy was a hard worker with a good attitude in college, people change. Money, adulthood, life experiences, challenges, etc. We just don’t know how people will respond.

Now that I think about it Richardson did have a rib injury his rookie year that he played through for a month or however long it took for that to heal.

I remember reading about how he had to sleep in an upright position with a harness for that whole time.

Something that could cause one to lose motivation afterwards.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think @Biabreakable highlighted the most important part at the end: attitude. We have no idea what kind of mental make up these guys have and I think very often that’s the difference. We are talking about guys who are ridiculously good at what they do and the difference between who succeeds and who fails likely isn’t due to athleticism or balance or acceleration but their mindset. Unfortunately it’s mostly unknowable for us and even for NFL teams. Even if a guy was a hard worker with a good attitude in college, people change. Money, adulthood, life experiences, challenges, etc. We just don’t know how people will respond.

Now that I think about it Richardson did have a rib injury his rookie year that he played through for a month or however long it took for that to heal.

I remember reading about how he had to sleep in an upright position with a harness for that whole time.

Something that could cause one to lose motivation afterwards.

Perhaps. I feel like if a rib injury and a harness caused him to lose motivation, he was never going to make it.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think @Biabreakable highlighted the most important part at the end: attitude. We have no idea what kind of mental make up these guys have and I think very often that’s the difference. We are talking about guys who are ridiculously good at what they do and the difference between who succeeds and who fails likely isn’t due to athleticism or balance or acceleration but their mindset. Unfortunately it’s mostly unknowable for us and even for NFL teams. Even if a guy was a hard worker with a good attitude in college, people change. Money, adulthood, life experiences, challenges, etc. We just don’t know how people will respond.

Now that I think about it Richardson did have a rib injury his rookie year that he played through for a month or however long it took for that to heal.

I remember reading about how he had to sleep in an upright position with a harness for that whole time.

Something that could cause one to lose motivation afterwards.

Perhaps. I feel like if a rib injury and a harness caused him to lose motivation, he was never going to make it.

Maybe.

 

[joey]

Back to 2023…

if I were to redraft this rookie class in PPR, TE-P league, non-SF, here’s my top 12:

1 B Robinson
2 Nacua
3 LaPorta
4 Gibbs
5 Addison
6 Achane
7 Flowers
8 R Rice
9 Dell
10 JSN
11 Kincaid
12 J Reed

I think

 

[Ilov80s]

Back to 2023…

if I were to redraft this rookie class in PPR, TE-P league, non-SF, here’s my top 12:

1 B Robinson

2 Nacua

3 LaPorta

4 Gibbs

5 Addison

6 Achane

7 Flowers

8 R Rice

9 Dell

10 JSN
11 Kincaid

12 J Reed


I think

I think I am
Gibbs
at 1 or at least RB1. I actually think I love Gibbs, Bijan and LaPorta over Puka. If one of those 4 guys turns out to not be a 5+ year star, it seems like Puka is the one I would have to bet against. Not a special NFL athlete, takes a lot of contact and is benefiting from the Stafford effect.

I am not sure I see the gap between Addison, Flowers and Reed.
910/10 Addison
914/6 Flowers
912/10 Reed

I am seeing very similar production. Reed has the chance to emerge as the #1 on the Packers. Addison has no path to be the #1 anytime soon. Zay could surpass Andrews but it won't be easy. Sure Zay and Addison were first round picks but Reed was a 2nd rounder and their track record is just as good as round 1 WRs. I have those 3 guys and JSN pretty much tiered together at this point.