Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some discussion recently caused me to wonder about the impact of rookie running backs in fantasy football. There have been rookie RB who become quality starters for FF right away, but I wondered exactly how common this is? I also wondered how important a players rookie performance might be for the quality of their career.
So I decided to be less lazy than Couch Potato (which is pretty easy) and gather the data to see what I might be able to find out. I gathered data from PFR for all RB drafted from 1989 to 2014. So 25 years is the sample size.
There have been 300 top 12 RB seasons over this time frame and after looking at the data I found that RB with 40 or more VBD almost always had a top 12 season. There were a few instances of a RB having a top 12 season with high 30s VBD so I included those in the sample as well. A few times 40VBD was not top 12, but it was usually pretty close. I then added Priest Holmes and Arian Foster who were undrafted free agents who have had multiple 40 VBD seasons.
I then took the top 150 players on this list by points per game so as to capture the best players in terms of winning games in FF, even if only over a short time frame. Some of these players never had better than 40 VBD in any season, but 101 of these 150 RB did have at least one 40 VBD season.
The average number of times these players has had a 40+ VBD year is 2 seasons.
101 RB had at least one 40+ VBD season. 67.3%
Only 36 RB had 3 or more 40 VBD seasons. 24%
3 RB had 9 40+ VBD seasons. 2%
3 RB had 8 40+ VBD seasons. 2%
1 RB had 7 40+ VBD seasons. 0.6%
7 RB had 6 40+ VBD seasons. 4.6%
11 RB had 5 40+ VBD seasons. 7.3%
11 RB had 4 40+ VBD seasons. 7.3%
12 RB had 3 40+ VBD seasons. 8%
18 RB had 2 40+ VBD seasons. 12%
35 RB had 1 40+ VBD season. 23.3%
I then averaged all players VBD by each season of their career.
The curve looks like this:
Year 1 22.5 VBD
Year 2 31.2 VBD
Year 3 33 VBD
Year 4 29 VBD
Year 5 28 VBD
Year 6 31.3 VBD
Year 7 17 VBD
Year 8 11 VBD
Year 9 8.3 VBD
Year 10 4 VBD
Year 11 .2 VBD
Year 12 .2 VBD
The curve is the highest in year 3 of the RBs career. Most of the RB have their best years within their first six seasons.
The rookie season was the lowest average VBD year of the first six seasons. Then the curve takes a pretty steep drop starting in season seven.
I also looked at career length for all of these players. Many of the players in this group are still active and will continue to accrue more seasons. But without factoring that into this I get 6.69 seasons. So I would say on average you can expect a RB career to be seven seasons.
Going back to the number of 40+ VBD seasons only 24% of the group had 3 or more seasons performing at this level. In other words 3 out of four of these RB will have two or less seasons of 40 VBD.
Here is the list of players from the sample-
Emmitt Smith HOF
Curtis Martin HOF
Ricky Watters
LaDainian Tomlinson
Barry Sanders HOF
Marshall Faulk HOF
Adrian Peterson
Edgerrin James
Tiki Barber
Steven Jackson
Corey Dillon
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Eddie George
Clinton Portis
Shaun Alexander
Matt Forte
Chris Johnson
Ray Rice
Marshawn Lynch
Maurice Jones-Drew
Terry Allen
Ahman Green
Priest Holmes
Arian Foster
Terrell Davis
Jamal Lewis
Fred Taylor
Ricky Williams
Rodney Hampton
Brian Westbrook
Warrick Dunn
Thomas Jones
Stephen Davis
Garrison Hearst
Michael Turner
LeSean McCoy
Alfred Morris
Deuce McAllister
Jerome Bettis HOF
Robert Smith
Rudi Johnson
Reggie Bush
Jamal Anderson
Charlie Garner
Duce Staley
Chris Warren
Edgar Bennett
Le'Veon Bell
Domanick Williams
DeMarco Murray
Eddie Lacy
Larry Johnson
Joseph Addai
Ryan Mathews
Travis Henry
James Stewart
Karim Abdul-Jabbar
Rashard Mendenhall
Willis McGahee
Antowain Smith
Cleveland Gary
Mike Anderson
Adrian Murrell
Dorsey Levens
Harvey Williams
Jeremy Hill
Doug Martin
Knowshon Moreno
Barry Foster
Natrone Means
Johnny Johnson
Marion Barber
DeAngelo Williams
Cedric Benson
Darren McFadden
Trent Richardson
Ahmad Bradshaw
Jonathan Stewart
Brandon Jacobs
Raymont Harris
Robert Edwards
Stevan Ridley
Mark Ingram
Steve Slaton
Leonard Russell
Marion Butts
C.J. Spiller
Errict Rhett
Lamar Miller
Lamar Smith
Napoleon Kaufman
Shonn Greene
Anthony Thomas
Mike Alstott
Terry Kirby
Reggie Cobb
Tyrone Wheatley
Michael Bush
Olandis Gary
Gary Brown
LaMont Jordan
Giovani Bernard
Mikel Leshoure
Jahvid Best
Tre Mason
Kevin Jones
Bam Morris
Andre Ellington
Tim Hightower
Kevan Barlow
Laurence Maroney
Andre Brown
Julius Jones
Kevin Smith
Cadillac Williams
Andre Williams
Tim Biakabutuka
Zac Stacy
Tatum Bell
Beanie Wells
Rashaan Salaam
Onterrio Smith
Ronnie Brown
Ben Tate
Michael Pittman
Lawrence Phillips
Chris Brown
Cecil Collins
Jerick McKinnon
Terrance West
LenDale White
Rashad Jennings
DeShaun Foster
Sammie Smith
Ryan Torain
Vick Ballard
William Green
Curtis Enis
Montee Ball
Cedric Houston
Edwin Baker
Brad Baxter
Felix Jones
T.J. Duckett
Ron Dayne
Chester Taylor
Reggie Brooks
Mario Bates
I will follow this up later by parsing the players by age when they entered the league and also looking at the group by NFL draft position.
So I decided to be less lazy than Couch Potato (which is pretty easy) and gather the data to see what I might be able to find out. I gathered data from PFR for all RB drafted from 1989 to 2014. So 25 years is the sample size.
There have been 300 top 12 RB seasons over this time frame and after looking at the data I found that RB with 40 or more VBD almost always had a top 12 season. There were a few instances of a RB having a top 12 season with high 30s VBD so I included those in the sample as well. A few times 40VBD was not top 12, but it was usually pretty close. I then added Priest Holmes and Arian Foster who were undrafted free agents who have had multiple 40 VBD seasons.
I then took the top 150 players on this list by points per game so as to capture the best players in terms of winning games in FF, even if only over a short time frame. Some of these players never had better than 40 VBD in any season, but 101 of these 150 RB did have at least one 40 VBD season.
The average number of times these players has had a 40+ VBD year is 2 seasons.
101 RB had at least one 40+ VBD season. 67.3%
Only 36 RB had 3 or more 40 VBD seasons. 24%
3 RB had 9 40+ VBD seasons. 2%
3 RB had 8 40+ VBD seasons. 2%
1 RB had 7 40+ VBD seasons. 0.6%
7 RB had 6 40+ VBD seasons. 4.6%
11 RB had 5 40+ VBD seasons. 7.3%
11 RB had 4 40+ VBD seasons. 7.3%
12 RB had 3 40+ VBD seasons. 8%
18 RB had 2 40+ VBD seasons. 12%
35 RB had 1 40+ VBD season. 23.3%
I then averaged all players VBD by each season of their career.
The curve looks like this:
Year 1 22.5 VBD
Year 2 31.2 VBD
Year 3 33 VBD
Year 4 29 VBD
Year 5 28 VBD
Year 6 31.3 VBD
Year 7 17 VBD
Year 8 11 VBD
Year 9 8.3 VBD
Year 10 4 VBD
Year 11 .2 VBD
Year 12 .2 VBD
The curve is the highest in year 3 of the RBs career. Most of the RB have their best years within their first six seasons.
The rookie season was the lowest average VBD year of the first six seasons. Then the curve takes a pretty steep drop starting in season seven.
I also looked at career length for all of these players. Many of the players in this group are still active and will continue to accrue more seasons. But without factoring that into this I get 6.69 seasons. So I would say on average you can expect a RB career to be seven seasons.
Going back to the number of 40+ VBD seasons only 24% of the group had 3 or more seasons performing at this level. In other words 3 out of four of these RB will have two or less seasons of 40 VBD.
Here is the list of players from the sample-
Emmitt Smith HOF
Curtis Martin HOF
Ricky Watters
LaDainian Tomlinson
Barry Sanders HOF
Marshall Faulk HOF
Adrian Peterson
Edgerrin James
Tiki Barber
Steven Jackson
Corey Dillon
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Eddie George
Clinton Portis
Shaun Alexander
Matt Forte
Chris Johnson
Ray Rice
Marshawn Lynch
Maurice Jones-Drew
Terry Allen
Ahman Green
Priest Holmes
Arian Foster
Terrell Davis
Jamal Lewis
Fred Taylor
Ricky Williams
Rodney Hampton
Brian Westbrook
Warrick Dunn
Thomas Jones
Stephen Davis
Garrison Hearst
Michael Turner
LeSean McCoy
Alfred Morris
Deuce McAllister
Jerome Bettis HOF
Robert Smith
Rudi Johnson
Reggie Bush
Jamal Anderson
Charlie Garner
Duce Staley
Chris Warren
Edgar Bennett
Le'Veon Bell
Domanick Williams
DeMarco Murray
Eddie Lacy
Larry Johnson
Joseph Addai
Ryan Mathews
Travis Henry
James Stewart
Karim Abdul-Jabbar
Rashard Mendenhall
Willis McGahee
Antowain Smith
Cleveland Gary
Mike Anderson
Adrian Murrell
Dorsey Levens
Harvey Williams
Jeremy Hill
Doug Martin
Knowshon Moreno
Barry Foster
Natrone Means
Johnny Johnson
Marion Barber
DeAngelo Williams
Cedric Benson
Darren McFadden
Trent Richardson
Ahmad Bradshaw
Jonathan Stewart
Brandon Jacobs
Raymont Harris
Robert Edwards
Stevan Ridley
Mark Ingram
Steve Slaton
Leonard Russell
Marion Butts
C.J. Spiller
Errict Rhett
Lamar Miller
Lamar Smith
Napoleon Kaufman
Shonn Greene
Anthony Thomas
Mike Alstott
Terry Kirby
Reggie Cobb
Tyrone Wheatley
Michael Bush
Olandis Gary
Gary Brown
LaMont Jordan
Giovani Bernard
Mikel Leshoure
Jahvid Best
Tre Mason
Kevin Jones
Bam Morris
Andre Ellington
Tim Hightower
Kevan Barlow
Laurence Maroney
Andre Brown
Julius Jones
Kevin Smith
Cadillac Williams
Andre Williams
Tim Biakabutuka
Zac Stacy
Tatum Bell
Beanie Wells
Rashaan Salaam
Onterrio Smith
Ronnie Brown
Ben Tate
Michael Pittman
Lawrence Phillips
Chris Brown
Cecil Collins
Jerick McKinnon
Terrance West
LenDale White
Rashad Jennings
DeShaun Foster
Sammie Smith
Ryan Torain
Vick Ballard
William Green
Curtis Enis
Montee Ball
Cedric Houston
Edwin Baker
Brad Baxter
Felix Jones
T.J. Duckett
Ron Dayne
Chester Taylor
Reggie Brooks
Mario Bates
I will follow this up later by parsing the players by age when they entered the league and also looking at the group by NFL draft position.