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ZWK's 2016 Prospect Analysis (2 Viewers)

Biabreakable said:
Amazing how high Stephen Hill is on this list. I think he is stashed on the Pathers IR right now.
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He was big, athletic, and productive. Checked all the boxes. He was the GT passing offense - over 15 yards per target and 4.9 yards per team pass attempt. Great combine workout (40 time of either 4.36 or 4.28, 39.5" vert, 11'1" broad). 6'4", 215 pounds. According to the numbers, he was a more athletic Demaryius Thomas. If only he could catch the ball. He had a ridiculous 17% drop rate over his 2 years in New York (9 drops on 54 catchable balls), and was probably terrible at Georgia Tech (I don't have his numbers but that's what scouting reports said).

 
jeaton6 said:
Did I miss something? Where is Treadwell?
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The main issue with Treadwell is that his production was pretty middle-of-the-road for a player who is his team's top WR. See this post of mine from January, for example, for a sampling of receiving stats on which Treadwell was unremarkable. On top of that, he had lousy workout numbers.

Some people have been comparing Treadwell to DeAndre Hopkins, whose workout numbers were not all that much better than Treadwell's. But Hopkins had a 82/1405/18 stat line with 11.0 YPT, compared to Treadwell's 82/1153/11 with 8.4 YPT. They put up those numbers on similar passing offenses (Chad Kelly's Rebels had slightly more passing attempts & yards, Tajh Boyd's Tigers had slightly more TDs and a slightly higher YPA). Some people point to Treadwell's talented receiving teammates (Core, Adeboyejo, Stringfellow, Engram) as a reason why he didn't put up bigger totals, but Hopkins played alongside Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant. Treadwell is pretty clearly a worse prospect than Hopkins was, in my eyes, and Hopkins was generally seen as the 7th best fantasy prospect in his draft class (even though it was seen as an unusually weak RB class).

In Treadwell's favor, he's big, he got open often according to Matt Harmon's analysis, scouts like him, and he left school early because of his promising NFL prospects. That is enough for me to think that my formula is underrating him, but it's not enough for me to think that he's worth his market price (for NFL teams or for fantasy teams).

 
Not sure why I didn't think of this before, but if I look at things a bit differently and keep a few parameters loose to pick up vaguely similar prospects I actually come up with a good list for Treadwell:

Dwayne Bowe
Laquon Treadwell
Hakeem Nicks
Anquan Boldin


I excluded Funchess because he's just so much bigger and assumed Treadwell is picked in the first 40 picks or so, but that's the full list otherwise.

Strongly suggests a draft position in the 20s.
 

 
wdcrob said:
Not sure why I didn't think of this before, but if I look at things a bit differently and keep a few parameters loose to pick up vaguely similar prospects I actually come up with a good list for Treadwell:

Dwayne Bowe
Laquon Treadwell
Hakeem Nicks
Anquan Boldin


I excluded Funchess because he's just so much bigger and assumed Treadwell is picked in the first 40 picks or so, but that's the full list otherwise.

Strongly suggests a draft position in the 20s.
 
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Interesting. I'm curious how you came up with that list.

I have Treadwell as clearly last of those 4 in terms of college production, and clearly behind Bowe & Nicks in terms of athleticism (though ahead of Boldin, who is the famous outlier for NFL success despite a bad combine). Looking at their last season:

Market Share Rec Yds
47% Nicks 2008
36% Boldin 2002
30% Bowe 2006
27% Treadwell 2015

Market Share Rec TDs
57% Nicks 2008
50% Boldin 2002
40% Bowe 2006
32% Treadwell 2015

YPT
11.6 Nicks 2008
10.1 Bowe 2006
8.4 Treadwell 2015

Looking at their workout numbers (mostly from nflcombineresults):

40 Time
4.51 Nicks 2009
4.51 Bowe 2007
4.64 Treadwell 2016
4.72 Boldin 2003

Vertical
36" Nicks 2009
33.5" Boldin 2003
33" Treadwell 2016
33" Bowe 2007

Broad
125" Bowe 2007
117" Treadwell 2016
114" Boldin 2003

(As a side note: I notice that nfldraftscout has recently made some changes to the combine 40 times that it is reporting from previous years, including Bowe, Nicks, and Stephen Hill. I'm not sure what to make of that.)

 
Almost all of the combine times listed on the individual player's page are different.  I'm not sure, but I think they report the initial times on the front page and the most accurate times they have on the players' pages (they're typically a fair bit slower).  I suspect (guess) that it's related to electronic timing.

I have Bowe at 4.57, Nicks at 4.63, Treadwell at 4.64 and Boldin at 4.71 but my measure of speed uses all three times (10-, 20- and 40) and averages them.

Basically all of these guys are such bad athletes (relative to WR prospects) that they fall into the bottom "bin", but all of them are also really thick and roughly the same height with high draft position and decent to good NCAA production (my measures are completely different than market share).

 
Can I get some opinions about Keith Marshall?

I felt like he and Prosise have three down potential but there has been much more buzz for Prosise than Marshall.

5'11" 220, 4.3 forty and 25 reps, those are measurable that excite me.

 
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Run It Up said:
Can I get some opinions about Keith Marshall?

I felt like he and Prosise have three down potential but there has been much more buzz for Prosise than Marshall.

5'11" 220, 4.3 forty and 25 reps, those are measurable that excite me.
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I believe Marshall came up short in the jumps though. 

I didn't go to crazy with my rankings of him even though I wanted to. Ended up behind behind Gurley and Chubb but for good reason. He doesn't have good vision, his cuts aren't that nice and he goes down too easily for a guy his size. I don't have a clear memory of him other than he's fast and I stopped watching after a few games because of his poor play. 

 
wdcrob said:
Almost all of the combine times listed on the individual player's page are different.  I'm not sure, but I think they report the initial times on the front page and the most accurate times they have on the players' pages (they're typically a fair bit slower).  I suspect (guess) that it's related to electronic timing.

I have Bowe at 4.57, Nicks at 4.63, Treadwell at 4.64 and Boldin at 4.71 but my measure of speed uses all three times (10-, 20- and 40) and averages them.

Basically all of these guys are such bad athletes (relative to WR prospects) that they fall into the bottom "bin", but all of them are also really thick and roughly the same height with high draft position and decent to good NCAA production (my measures are completely different than market share).
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nfldraftscout made changes sometime in the past year or so to the 40 times on their player pages. If you went to Hakeem Nicks's page in December 2013, according to the internet archive you would've seen:

40 Yrd Dash: 4.51
20 Yrd Dash: 2.60
10 Yrd Dash: 1.52

There was also a line in his profile that said:

40 Low: 4.42   40 Time: 4.51  40 High: 4.63

When I went to Hakeem Nicks's page today, I saw:

40 Yrd Dash: 4.63
20 Yrd Dash: 2.74
10 Yrd Dash: 1.70

There is also a line in his profile that says:

40 Low: 4.41   40 Time: 4.51  40 High: 4.62

So his 40, 20, and 10 all got slower by 0.12-0.18 seconds, but the 40 Low/Time/High are almost (but not quite) the same as before.

I have the old numbers in all of my spreadsheets (e.g., 4.51 for Nicks) and used them for all of my analyses. Things are similar with a few other WRs from years ago who I've checked, where the "40 Yrd Dash" and splits currently on nfldraftscout are slower than they used to be. NFL Combine Results has the old numbers which match my spreadsheets.

0.12 seconds is a large change for a 40 time. I am not sure which numbers to rely on, and what this does to comparisons between years or between combine times vs. pro day times (note that nfldraftscout still has Bowe with a 4.40 at his pro day). Probably the best thing to do would be to get another source with a stable method (like Xue) and use that as a measuring stick to compare different classes. I actually did that a couple years ago (I also looked at how the average 40 time changed from year to year), but that was before nfldraftscout made this change.

 
IIRC the new times are better correlated and make more sense relative to each other.  And they're mostly slower too.  FWIW, they certainly work very well for the analysis stuff I did with them.

 
It has to be frustrating that there isn't reliable and accurate reporting and recording of this information Z

I do think there is value to be gained from combine measurements, but with the inconsistencies in the data it is something I have somewhat given up on because I cannot trust that what people are reporting is accurate. That is because of the lack of transparency of the process despite such large coverage and resources put into making the combine an event.

Maybe as some of the leadership shifts to more data driven analysis there will be an improvement and standardization of the combine measurement process, but I don't think it is there right now. I hate to see you work for years based on the premise of the data you are working with being accurate only to find at a later time that the data was flawed, and perhaps in some instances very flawed.  

 
ZWK said:
40 Low: 4.41   40 Time: 4.51  40 High: 4.62
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Heya Z... I'm about 99% sure these are just pre-combine estimates.  Not measurements being reported.  If you look at future years they have that same line.

 
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wdcrob said:
IIRC the new times are better correlated and make more sense relative to each other.  And they're mostly slower too.  FWIW, they certainly work very well for the analysis stuff I did with them.
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It looks some draft classes have changed more and others have changed less or not at all.

Chris Johnson's (2008) 4.24 is still at 4.24.
CJ Spiller's (2010) 4.27 is now at 4.37.
Darren McFadden's (2008) 4.33 is still at 4.33.
Ben Tate's (2010) 4.34 is now at 4.43.
Lamar Miller's (2012) 4.34 is now at 4.40.
Cedric Peerman's (2009) 4.34 is now at 4.45.
Onterio McCalebb's (2013) 4.34 is still at 4.34.
Justin Fargas's (2003) 4.35 is now at 4.40.
DeMarco Murray's (2011) 4.37 is now at 4.43.
Knile Davis's (2013) 4.37 is still at 4.37.

If you have a data set with all the new 40 times which you could share, that would make it a lot easier for me to sort through this. Especially if the only place where they're available online is the nfldraftscout individual player pages.

 
Football Outsiders is developing a new RB prospect rating system which they're calling BackCAST.

Their old system, Speed Score, looked at 40 time & weight. It was basically a linear combination of those 2 variables, where each 0.10 seconds of 40 time was worth 20 pounds. (Though they used a weird formula.)

Their new system uses 5 variables:

- 40 time
- weight
- yards per carry relative to teammates (which they call "yards over expected per game")
- market share of rushing attempts
- receiving yards per game

I include things similar to each of these in my RB projection system, except I haven't gathered data on teammates' rushing stats so I don't look at rushing efficiency relative to teammates (if I had that data then I would include something like it).

First their top 10 RBs, then some thoughts on their system vs. mine.

+63.1%    Derrick Henry
+46.2%    Ezekiel Elliott
+23.4%    Devontae Booker
+18.2%    C.J. Prosise
+18.1%    Jordan Howard
+16.6%    Kenneth Dixon
+15.2%    Daniel Lasco
+14.2%    DeAndre Washington
+8.6%    Tyler Ervin
+8.1%    Paul Perkins

The percentage rating is "how much better than the average draftable RB rospect is this guy?" This class is not very good, by FO's metric. The top 25 RB prospects since 1998 range from +182% to +85%. They basically agree with conventional wisdom that Henry is an early 2nd round prospect. They're just a lot lower on Elliott.

(One note - there may be some errors in the data in that they're using to calculate these, especially in weights and 40 time. Or it's possible that the errors are just in the table that got posted to their website.)

On to methodology. There are methodological differences between FO's approach and mine, as I talked about last year in relation to their WR rating system.

To take one example, it seems reasonable to include some variable related to rushing attempts in a RB prospect rating formula. It seems plausible that RBs who carried the load in college are more likely turn into NFL successes, and historical data seems to bear that out. But there are a few different ways that you might do this. You might just look at number of rushing attempts in a RB's best season - if he had 300 attempts, then mark him down as 300 attempts. Or, you might look at his market share relative to his teammates - if he had 300 attempts and his team had 600 total rushing attempts, then mark him down for 50% of the attempts. Or, you might look at his market share relative to the RBs on his team - if he had 300 attempts, the other RBs combined for 200 attempts, and QBs/WRs had 100 attempts, then mark him down for 60% of the RB attempts.

Football Outsiders' approach is to run a separate regression with each of these predictor variables and then pick the one which has historically been most correlated with NFL success. They did this and picked the 2nd option - market share relative to all teammates - even though that includes sacks as rushing attempts. I suspect that this is a case of overfitting - it's probably just a coincidence that guys whose QB had lots of rushing attempts did worse in the NFL - and this choice hurts the rating of guys like Ezekiel Elliott whose QB had lots of rushing attempts.

My approach is to either pick the one which seems most plausible to me, or to choose "all of the above" and average them together. In the case of attempts, I picked total number of rushing attempts, but averaged together the player's most recent season and the season with the largest workload, and I capped the number with a floor of 80 and a ceiling of 225. If there was enough data to figure out which variation on the "number of attempts" variable was most predictive then my ad hoc approach would be missing out on that information, but I think that we don't have enough data to reach anything more than the crude conclusion that "something like number of attempts is predictive of NFL success". So I rely on intuition about what's plausible, and averaging together a few similar variables to smooth out the rough spots for guys who have a weird profile, in order to put my system together.

Similarly, they pick one rushing efficiency metric (YOE/G) while I average together several, and they pick one athleticism measure (40 time) while I take a weighted average of several (primarily 40, vert, and broad).

 
Run It Up said:
Can I get some opinions about Keith Marshall?

I felt like he and Prosise have three down potential but there has been much more buzz for Prosise than Marshall.

5'11" 220, 4.3 forty and 25 reps, those are measurable that excite me.
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In terms of athleticism/size, I have Marshall as the 3rd best prospect in this draft class. He's between Lasco & Henry, and well behind Darius Jackson.

In terms of his college career, he does not resemble a typical successful NFL RB. He has 253 carries in his entire college career, and hasn't reached 70 carries in any of the past 3 seasons. His career rushing efficiency is also not that great, e.g., he has 9 career 20+ yard runs in 217 non-RZ carries (this year, Sony Michel had 15 on 185 carries and Nick Chubb had 8 on 81 carries). His freshman year was by far his most productive.

PFF has mixed feelings about Marshall's 2015 season. On the positive side, he had a top-20-RB-worthy rushing grade per snap and a good number of missed tackles. On the negative side, he had a low yards after contact average and they didn't like his lack of big plays.

I was not particularly impressed with what I've seen of Marshall on video. He seemed like a straight-ahead running who didn't have any great weapons other than speed (and perhaps the ability to run through some arm tackles). I had a similar impression of both Knile Davis and Lamar Miller as prospects, though, which allows for a pretty wide range of NFL outcomes.

If you're betting on Marshall, I think you're basically betting that the talent he flashed as a freshman was legit, his past 3 seasons have been largely lost years due to injury, and he'll bounce back and stay healthy.

I currently have him in the low 10s among rookie RBs (and a 3rd rounder overall in PPR), close behind the other RBs (Darius Jackson, Lasco, Kenyan Drake) who look the part but don't have the resume to go with it.

 
ZWK said:
Football Outsiders is developing a new RB prospect rating system which they're calling BackCAST.

Their old system, Speed Score, looked at 40 time & weight. It was basically a linear combination of those 2 variables, where each 0.10 seconds of 40 time was worth 20 pounds. (Though they used a weird formula.)

Their new system uses 5 variables:

- 40 time
- weight
- yards per carry relative to teammates (which they call "yards over expected per game")
- market share of rushing attempts
- receiving yards per game

I include things similar to each of these in my RB projection system, except I haven't gathered data on teammates' rushing stats so I don't look at rushing efficiency relative to teammates (if I had that data then I would include something like it).

First their top 10 RBs, then some thoughts on their system vs. mine.

+63.1%    Derrick Henry
+46.2%    Ezekiel Elliott
+23.4%    Devontae Booker
+18.2%    C.J. Prosise
+18.1%    Jordan Howard
+16.6%    Kenneth Dixon
+15.2%    Daniel Lasco
+14.2%    DeAndre Washington
+8.6%    Tyler Ervin
+8.1%    Paul Perkins

The percentage rating is "how much better than the average draftable RB rospect is this guy?" This class is not very good, by FO's metric. The top 25 RB prospects since 1998 range from +182% to +85%. They basically agree with conventional wisdom that Henry is an early 2nd round prospect. They're just a lot lower on Elliott.

(One note - there may be some errors in the data in that they're using to calculate these, especially in weights and 40 time. Or it's possible that the errors are just in the table that got posted to their website.)

On to methodology. There are methodological differences between FO's approach and mine, as I talked about last year in relation to their WR rating system.

To take one example, it seems reasonable to include some variable related to rushing attempts in a RB prospect rating formula. It seems plausible that RBs who carried the load in college are more likely turn into NFL successes, and historical data seems to bear that out. But there are a few different ways that you might do this. You might just look at number of rushing attempts in a RB's best season - if he had 300 attempts, then mark him down as 300 attempts. Or, you might look at his market share relative to his teammates - if he had 300 attempts and his team had 600 total rushing attempts, then mark him down for 50% of the attempts. Or, you might look at his market share relative to the RBs on his team - if he had 300 attempts, the other RBs combined for 200 attempts, and QBs/WRs had 100 attempts, then mark him down for 60% of the RB attempts.

Football Outsiders' approach is to run a separate regression with each of these predictor variables and then pick the one which has historically been most correlated with NFL success. They did this and picked the 2nd option - market share relative to all teammates - even though that includes sacks as rushing attempts. I suspect that this is a case of overfitting - it's probably just a coincidence that guys whose QB had lots of rushing attempts did worse in the NFL - and this choice hurts the rating of guys like Ezekiel Elliott whose QB had lots of rushing attempts.

My approach is to either pick the one which seems most plausible to me, or to choose "all of the above" and average them together. In the case of attempts, I picked total number of rushing attempts, but averaged together the player's most recent season and the season with the largest workload, and I capped the number with a floor of 80 and a ceiling of 225. If there was enough data to figure out which variation on the "number of attempts" variable was most predictive then my ad hoc approach would be missing out on that information, but I think that we don't have enough data to reach anything more than the crude conclusion that "something like number of attempts is predictive of NFL success". So I rely on intuition about what's plausible, and averaging together a few similar variables to smooth out the rough spots for guys who have a weird profile, in order to put my system together.

Similarly, they pick one rushing efficiency metric (YOE/G) while I average together several, and they pick one athleticism measure (40 time) while I take a weighted average of several (primarily 40, vert, and broad).
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Why do you have a cap of 225? 

Why is team rushing attempts used for market share instead of RB rushing attempt? 

 
Borden said:
Why do you have a cap of 225? 

Why is team rushing attempts used for market share instead of RB rushing attempt? 
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Football Outsiders using team rushing attempts for market share because they ran one regression using team rushing attempts and another using RB rushing attempts, and the one that used team rushing attempts was more predictive of NFL success for RBs who were drafted 1998-2014. I think that there are some problems with their approach, like a risk of overfitting.

I have a cap at 225 because I suspect that carries beyond some point tell us more about the coach & the scheme than about the RB. In the NFL, if you're looking at a RB with 170 carries vs. a RB with 270 carries, then you're comparing a committee back with a guy who won the lead RB role. If you're looking at a RB with 370 carries vs. a RB with 270 carries, then you're comparing a RB whose coaches chose to run him into the ground with a RB whose coaches chose to take care of him. The 270 vs. 170 difference tells you a lot more about how good a RB he is than the 370 vs. 270 difference. So I chose to put a cap on it, and I chose to put that cap at 225 for a college season (225 carries in 12 games is the same rate as 300 in 16 games). That was probably not the ideal choice - I think it would be better if I either put the cap a little higher or gave some smaller amount of credit for additional carries beyond that cutoff.

 
Like last year, Arif Hasan has put together a consensus draft board which averages together the rankings of over 40 draft experts. Here is the top 100. Here is the top 300, separated into evaluators (who mostly try to rank which players are best) and forecasters (who mostly try to predict which players will be drafted when). Here he looks at where evaluators and forecasters disagree most.

This is the best thing out there for ranking prospects, except perhaps the draft itself.

 
I wanted to share my last set of info before the draft starts. I have 3 types of player rankings. First, there are my formulas which spit our rankings within a position. Second, there is my independent impression of players which includes the output of my formulas, and also other information like what I've seen from the player on tape, other people's statistical analyses of players, injury news, and ways in which I think my formulas might be misleading. Third, there is the order that I would draft players in, which also takes into account other people's opinions about the players (like Arif Hasan's consensus draft board).

Taking them in reverse order: For the third type of rankings - the order that I would draft players in - this post from a few weeks ago is still pretty close to accurate.

For the second type of rankings - my independent impressions of players - I haven't put together rankings recently.

For the first type of rankings - my formulas - I posted the WRs a few days ago (including comparisons with previous draft classes), and here are the RBs:

Eddie Lacy    2013
        
Todd Gurley    2015
Melvin Gordon    2015
Christine Michael    2013
Carlos Hyde    2014
Ezekiel Elliott    2016
        
Lache Seastrunk    2014
Jay Ajayi    2015
Tre Mason    2014
Giovani Bernard    2013
Ameer Abdullah    2015
Knile Davis    2013
    
Darius Jackson    2016
Derrick Henry    2016
Jeremy Hill    2014
Jerick McKinnon    2014
        
Jonathan Franklin    2013
Tevin Coleman    2015
Duke Johnson    2015
Bishop Sankey    2014
C.J. Prosise    2016
Kenneth Dixon    2016
Jordan Howard    2016
David Johnson    2015
DeAndre Washington    2016
Marcus Lattimore    2013
Stephen Houston    2014
Henry Josey    2014
Zac Stacy    2013
D.J. Harper    2013
Le'Veon Bell    2013
Cierre Wood    2013
Kenjon Barner    2013
Montee Ball    2013
Latavius Murray    2013
Isaiah Crowell    2014
Paul Perkins    2016
Andre Williams    2014
Charles Sims    2014
Dri Archer    2014
Jhurell Pressley    2016
Devonta Freeman    2014
Alex Collins    2016
David Cobb    2015
        
T.J. Yeldon    2015
Cameron Artis-Payne    2015
Karlos Williams    2015
Daniel Lasco    2016
Josh Robinson    2015
Corey Grant    2015
David Fluellen    2014
Treavor Scales    2013
Kenyan Drake    2016
Jeremy Langford    2015
Michael Ford    2013
Robert Godhigh    2014
Matthew Tucker    2013
Mike Davis    2015
George Atkinson III    2014
Devontae Booker    2016
Wendell Smallwood    2016
Keith Marshall    2016
Terrance West    2014
Michael Dyer    2015
Tim Cornett    2014
Jonathan Williams    2016
C.J. Anderson    2013
Andre Ellington    2013
James White    2014
De'Anthony Thomas    2014
Lorenzo Taliaferro    2014
Tyler Ervin    2016
Devon Johnson    2016

 
Thinking about where to slot in the first round rookies in my overall dynasty rankings. Here's what I'm thinking:

RB: Elliott at RB3, just ahead of David Johnson. Was neck-and-neck with Johnson before the draft; getting taken at #4 was a plus & going to Dallas is too.

WR: Coleman & Doctson at WR20 & WR21 at the bottom of the Benjamin/White/Allen tier - Coleman inches ahead of Doctson based on draft position, and their landing spots don't change much. Treadwell a tier back at WR25 based on my predraft impression of him (that's close behind in ranking, but there is a fairly large gap between WR21 and WR22). Fuller at WR40; not good to be stuck as the #2 WR behind Hopkins and Osweiler has struggled especially with the deep ball.

QB: Goff at QB9, Wentz at QB14, and Lynch at QB20. QBs drafted in the top 2 have a pretty strong track record, and QB is a fantasy position where you should be betting on upside rather than established averageish players. 9 & 14 is not as high as where I had Mariota & Winston a year ago, partly because I liked Mariota more than Goff and Winston more than Wentz, and partly because a lot of young QBs had a good season last year (including Winston, Carr, and Tyrod Taylor).

 
ZWK said:
Thinking about where to slot in the first round rookies in my overall dynasty rankings. Here's what I'm thinking:

RB: Elliott at RB3, just ahead of David Johnson. Was neck-and-neck with Johnson before the draft; getting taken at #4 was a plus & going to Dallas is too.

WR: Coleman & Doctson at WR20 & WR21 at the bottom of the Benjamin/White/Allen tier - Coleman inches ahead of Doctson based on draft position, and their landing spots don't change much. Treadwell a tier back at WR25 based on my predraft impression of him (that's close behind in ranking, but there is a fairly large gap between WR21 and WR22). Fuller at WR40; not good to be stuck as the #2 WR behind Hopkins and Osweiler has struggled especially with the deep ball.

QB: Goff at QB9, Wentz at QB14, and Lynch at QB20. QBs drafted in the top 2 have a pretty strong track record, and QB is a fantasy position where you should be betting on upside rather than established averageish players. 9 & 14 is not as high as where I had Mariota & Winston a year ago, partly because I liked Mariota more than Goff and Winston more than Wentz, and partly because a lot of young QBs had a good season last year (including Winston, Carr, and Tyrod Taylor).
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Dallas was probably the best landing spot possible for Elliott, but I'm holding off on putting him above DJ until he shows it.  Next season he's probably there for me, but I always knock rookies down a bit for not proving it against NFL teams yet.

Pretty surprised that Houston went with Fuller given that Brock isn't known for a good deep ball.  Wonder if he ends up like Wallace in Minnesota as opposed to Wallace in Pittsburgh.

 
Here are the generic rookie rankings for PPR leagues through rd 3. These are based only on draft pick & position, using historical data. Estimated career VBD (for both PPR and non-PPR) is available in the spreadsheet.

4    RB    Ezekiel Elliott
        
        
1    QB    Jared Goff
15    WR    Corey Coleman
        
21    WR    Will Fuller
22    WR    Josh Doctson
23    WR    Laquon Treadwell
2    QB    Carson Wentz
        
45    RB    Derrick Henry
40    WR    Sterling Shepard
35    TE    Hunter Henry
47    WR    Michael Thomas
73    RB    Kenyan Drake
55    WR    Tyler Boyd
        
90    RB    CJ Prosise
26    QB    Paxton Lynch
85    WR    Braxton Miller
86    WR    Leonte Carroo
        
81    TE    Austin Hooper
94    TE    Nick Vannett
51    QB    Christian Hackenberg
        
91    QB    Jacoby Brissett
93    QB    Cody Kessler

Rd 4 RBs can still slot in ahead of Braxton Miller, WRs ahead of Austin Hooper, and TEs ahead of Christian Hackenberg.

 
Here's an attempt to slot the first 3 rounds of rookies into my positional dynasty rankings:

WR20    Corey Coleman    CLE
WR21    Josh Doctson    WAS
WR24    Laquon Treadwell    MIN
WR35    Leonte Carroo    MIA
WR41    William Fuller    HOU
WR45    Michael Thomas    NO
WR49    Sterling Shepard    NYG
WR52    Tyler Boyd    CIN
WR61    Braxton Miller    HOU

RB3    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL
RB15    Derrick Henry    TEN
RB31    Kenyan Drake    MIA
RB39    C.J. Prosise    SEA

TE13    Hunter Henry    SD
TE29    Austin Hooper    ATL
TE36    Nick Vannett    SEA

QB9    Jared Goff    RAM
QB14    Carson Wentz    PHI
QB20    Paxton Lynch    DEN
QB37    Christian Hackenberg    NYJ
QB39    Cody Kessler    CLE
QB45    Jacoby Brissett    NE

 
steelers1080 said:
Dallas was probably the best landing spot possible for Elliott, but I'm holding off on putting him above DJ until he shows it.  Next season he's probably there for me, but I always knock rookies down a bit for not proving it against NFL teams yet.

Pretty surprised that Houston went with Fuller given that Brock isn't known for a good deep ball.  Wonder if he ends up like Wallace in Minnesota as opposed to Wallace in Pittsburgh.
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I think that Zeke has less risk than Johnson.

The track record for these guys that blow up in the 2nd half of their rookie year is not good.

 
Biabreakable said:
That was quick Z. Easy when you are prepared I suppose.
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A lot of guys are pretty easy to slot in. e.g., Michael Thomas is a lot like Funchess & DGB - drafted with a similar pick, big WR, my prospect rating system doesn't like him but some people do and I can see some of the things that they like. And Funchess & DGB had rookie years that didn't change things from how I saw them a year ago. So that pins down Thomas's ranking within a few spots (unless I do a bigger rethinking of all three of those guys, but I didn't bother with things like that for this quick post).

Someone like Carroo is trickier to place, because of the large gap between my rating of him and his draft position. Derrick Henry is also fairly tricky to place, because the gap between RB6 and RB21 isn't that big. But making a quick initial guess is not all that hard - the trickier part is going to be coming over the next couple weeks, as I think more about these guys and try not to get anchored too much on my first post-draft impression.

 
All looks pretty good to me. Subjectively, I don't see much in Fuller, Boyd, or Braxton to get excited about. Fuller is all speed with nothing else. He is tiny and nearly useless as a possession/short range receiver. I'd actually put him in a tier below Coleman/Docston/Treadwell. IMO Houston overpaid for a deep threat. I feel like Boyd is just Robert Woods with a better aerial game. Totally mediocre athlete. Fluid, but there's no juice behind it and he's not that big. I don't see how he wins in the NFL against good defenders, but he will be the #3 option in Cincy and thus may have space to operate. Miller to me is just neither here nor there. He doesn't have any one single great trait as a WR. He's just an athletic guy who can create some chaos. I don't see him transitioning into a 60-80 catch player.

I think Thomas can be decent. I don't see a dominant #1 WR there, but for a bigger guy he's agile and pretty fluid. I struggle to think of a comparison off the top of my head, but he sticks out to me more than Boyd or Shepard and would likely be my top choice of the 2nd-3rd round WRs. I said elsewhere that I see Carroo as a Pierre Garcon type. He is thick, but not a short yardage YAC type who uses his strength ala Boldin or Crabtree. He is more of just a deep threat. The problem there is that he's short with stubby little arms and mediocre range, meaning that if he doesn't blow by people then he won't win a lot of contests for the ball.

 
Some good QBs last to the 2nd round of the NFL draft, but they usually get taken within the first few picks of the 2nd round. Compare this list of 2nd round QBs taken by pick 45, with this list of QBs taken with pick 46-100 - the first list is much shorter but also much stronger at the top. Combine that with the fact that Hackenberg is someone who I am pessimistic about as a prospect, and Brissett & Kessler were typically ranked well behind were they were drafted, and I think the QBs outside the top 3 do not look very promising. Worth a roster spot in 2QB/superflex leagues (especially Hackenberg & Kessler, who have immediate opportunity to see the field), or in extremely deep leagues, but not worth much.

Looking at WR landing spots: HOU, NYG, and CIN all have an established (youngish) top WR, which is bad news for the WRs going there. Slightly bad news for Carroo heading to Miami, where Parker might turn into a top WR (and Landry might turn into a NE-style top WR). NO is the only WR landing spot with an elite QB, but he's 37 and seems to have started his decline, so that is not worth much of a bonus.

At TE, ATL is a great landing spot - Matt Ryan is a good to very good QB and they're short on weapons with a hole at TE. SD is a slightly above average landing spot, thanks to Rivers, but the clock is ticking on Rivers who is 34 and Gates might keep going for a while still.

At RB, DAL is a great landing spot in the short term but it's probably not much above average starting 2 years from now, with Romo getting up there and the difficulties of holding a great offensive line together. TEN isn't great for year 1 with Murray there, but it's not clear how much Murray has left and he could easily be gone after this year. MIA & SEA don't have an established RB1, which is good news, although if Rawls keeps doing what he did last year that won't be true for long.

For vets, this draft seems like bad news for DeMarco Murray (who will now be in a committee, and could be out of a job soon) & Jarvis Landry (whose team seems like they may want to take the receiving corps in a different direction from the Landry-underneath-target-heavy approach that they've used recently). Also a bit of bad news for Garcon, Diggs, and Snead.

 
Here are the complete generic rookie rankings, based only on position & draft slot:

4    RB    Ezekiel Elliott
        
        
1    QB    Jared Goff
15    WR    Corey Coleman
        
21    WR    Will Fuller
22    WR    Josh Doctson
23    WR    Laquon Treadwell
2    QB    Carson Wentz
        
45    RB    Derrick Henry
40    WR    Sterling Shepard
35    TE    Hunter Henry
47    WR    Michael Thomas
73    RB    Kenyan Drake
55    WR    Tyler Boyd
        
90    RB    CJ Prosise
26    QB    Paxton Lynch
85    WR    Braxton Miller
86    WR    Leonte Carroo
        
81    TE    Austin Hooper
107    WR    Chris Moore
119    RB    Tyler Ervin
94    TE    Nick Vannett
112    WR    Malcolm Mitchell
114    WR    Ricardo Louis
117    WR    Pharoh Cooper
        
51    QB    Christian Hackenberg
134    RB    Kenneth Dixon
110    TE    Tyler Higbee
126    WR    Demarcus Robinson
136    RB    Devontae Booker
143    RB    DeAndre Washington
138    WR    Seth DeValve
149    RB    Paul Perkins
150    RB    Jordan Howard
140    WR    Tajae Sharpe
153    RB    Wendell Smallwood
156    RB    Jonathan Williams

And here are the other skill position players who were drafted in the top 200, but their prospects are bad enough (based on what other players at their position with similar draft slot have done) so that it isn't worth the trouble to rank them by anything but draft position:

91    QB    Jacoby Brissett
93    QB    Cody Kessler
100    QB    Connor Cook
135    QB    Dak Prescott
139    QB    Cardale Jones
154    WR    Jordan Payton
162    QB    Kevin Hogan
163    WR    Trevor Davis
165    WR    Tyreek Hill
171    RB    Alex Collins
172    WR    Rashard Higgins
177    TE    Temarrick Hemingway
180    WR    Moritz Boehringer
182    RB    Keenan Reynolds
184    TE    Jerell Adams
186    WR    Jakeem Grant
187    QB    Nate Sudfeld
188    WR    David Morgan
191    QB    Jake Rudock
192    WR    Kolby Listenbee
199    WR    Cody Core

It's possible that I should boost the RB projections, especially in the mid-to-late rounds, because the decline in RB positional value for NFL teams means that RBs are falling farther in the draft than they used to. These generic rankings may be overrating the top QBs for similar reasons - an increase in QB positional value for NFL teams means that the top QBs are getting drafted earlier than they used to.

 
Looking at the draft class as a whole, the generic rookie rankings peg this as the 2nd weakest draft class of the past 10 years (based on total projected VBD, top 200 players, non-ppr). It beats out 2013 thanks to the stronger QB class (or, alternatively, you could pin it all on Elliott).

Year    VBD
2016    2318
2015    3082
2014    2974
2013    2043
2012    3005
2011    2700
2010    2557
2009    2889
2008    3163
2007    3052

 
It is hard to get excited about any player taken outside the top 120. If you start feeling excited about anyone who was taken after Tyler Ervin, thinking that their landing spot + your predraft opinion makes them a good option early in your rookie draft, scrolling through this list (of every RB/WR/TE drafted at 121+ since 1996) should help cure that.

Things do look pretty thin / wide open after the top 17 in the generic rankings (Prosise, Lynch, Braxton, Carroo), though, so not much harm in reaching for whoever you like after those 17 are gone.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK said:
It is hard to get excited about any player taken outside the top 120. If you start feeling excited about anyone who was taken after Tyler Ervin, thinking that their landing spot + your predraft opinion makes them a good option early in your rookie draft, scrolling through this list (of every RB/WR/TE drafted at 121+ since 1996) should help cure that.

Things do look pretty thin / wide open after the top 17 in the generic rankings (Prosise, Lynch, Braxton, Carroo), though, so not much harm in reaching for whoever you like after those 17 are gone.
Click to expand...
There is hope.

Michael Turner, Alf, Sproles, Buckhalter, Higtower, Sammy Morris, Joe Horn, Julius Thomas, Brandon Lloyd, Brent Celek, Charles Clay, Marvin Jones. 

 
Ilov80s said:
There is hope.

Michael Turner, Alf, Sproles, Buckhalter, Higtower, Sammy Morris, Joe Horn, Julius Thomas, Brandon Lloyd, Brent Celek, Charles Clay, Marvin Jones. 
Click to expand...
Yes, you can scroll through a list of 300 names and find a few good ones (plus several moderately useful ones). For every 24 nobodies, you'll find one name like those. You can click to the next page to find more hope - Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Delanie Walker, Mike Anderson, Peyton Hillis, Latavius Murray, Chester Taylor, Andre Ellington, and James Starks are among the next 300.

 
ZWK said:
Yes, you can scroll through a list of 300 names and find a few good ones (plus several moderately useful ones). For every 24 nobodies, you'll find one name like those. You can click to the next page to find more hope - Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Delanie Walker, Mike Anderson, Peyton Hillis, Latavius Murray, Chester Taylor, Andre Ellington, and James Starks are among the next 300.
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Tons and tons of misses for sure. Like you said, if you like a guy from there be sure to go after that guy. 

 
3 of my top 45 from here went undrafted. Word is that Roger Lewis (29) has signed as a UDFA with the Giants and Keyarris Garrett (33) with the Panthers. I should probably stop paying attention to Bryce Treggs (44).

Some other UDFA signings worth noting: WR/RB DJ Foster to New England, WR/RB Byron Marshall to the Eagles, TE/WR Devon Cajuste to the Niners, and TE/WR Stephen Anderson to the Texans.

The highest-ranked guys in the generic rookie rankings who weren't in my top 45 are TE Nick Vannett, WR Ricardo Louis, QB Christian Hackenberg, WR Demarcus Robinson, WR/TE Seth DeValve, WR Tajae Sharpe, QB Jacoby Brissett, and QB Cody Kessler. Not a very exciting bunch. It also seems worth pointing out WR Trevor Davis who went to GB at 163, and Montana State TE Beau Sandland (CAR pick 252) whose metrics I liked.

A lot of guys fell further than expected, including most RBs.

 
More UDFA of note: RB Jhurell Pressley to the Vikings, RB Devon Johnson to the Panthers, TE Ben Braunecker to the Bears.

Looking a little more at Cody Kessler: he was the 2nd best QB by my stats in 2014, behind Mariota. PFF grades had the same 1-2. His numbers dropped a lot in his last season, which is typically a bad sign, but it did happen with Winston too. He gets praised for accuracy & decision making, which are the sort of things that matter. One of the main knocks on him is arm strength, but he threw 55 mph at the combine. The other main knock is trouble dealing with pressure, which could be a serious problem. He has taken a lot of sacks - 38 sacks on 484 dropbacks in his last season is the 3rd highest rate out of the 28 college QBs who I've looked at (only Hackenberg & Vernon Adams were worse).

 
I liked Demarcus Robinsons game but he has legitimate character concerns. How did he do with your numbers. I'm not sure if he even would've made your made your list because I don't believe he played enough games to make the cut off. 

 
ZWK said:
He was big, athletic, and productive. Checked all the boxes. He was the GT passing offense - over 15 yards per target and 4.9 yards per team pass attempt. Great combine workout (40 time of either 4.36 or 4.28, 39.5" vert, 11'1" broad). 6'4", 215 pounds. According to the numbers, he was a more athletic Demaryius Thomas. If only he could catch the ball. He had a ridiculous 17% drop rate over his 2 years in New York (9 drops on 54 catchable balls), and was probably terrible at Georgia Tech (I don't have his numbers but that's what scouting reports said).
Click to expand...


No science behind this, but I just don't think he's as put together or moves the same. He was not very agile. More of a pure straight-line guy. Speed is nice, but in the NFL I think the small window movements are just as important, if not more so. Receivers who aren't very fast, but can change directions quickly and efficiently often seem to do pretty well (i.e. Allen Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree). I see Hill as being similar to someone like Aaron Dobson. His game is all vertical and he can't plant-and-drive or do basically anything in the first 20 yards of the play.

 
Any thoughts on Tyreek Hill? He is a nightmare off the field and a 'tweener on the field, but when I watched him at Oklahoma State a couple years ago I thought he had first round physical talent. He is more explosive and athletic than Tavon Austin or Brandin Cooks, albeit without anywhere near their production.

 
EBF said:
Any thoughts on Tyreek Hill? He is a nightmare off the field and a 'tweener on the field, but when I watched him at Oklahoma State a couple years ago I thought he had first round physical talent. He is more explosive and athletic than Tavon Austin or Brandin Cooks, albeit without anywhere near their production.
Click to expand...
I was just coming to quote you somewhere to get your attention about Hill. I remember you pimping his athleticism before all the legal trouble...I am shocked he was drafted, I was floored to see his name pop up. Hadn't thought about him in a year or two. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
I was just coming to quote you somewhere to get your attention about Hill. I remember you pimping his athleticism before all the legal trouble...I am shocked he was drafted, I was floored to see his name pop up. Hadn't thought about him in a year or two. 
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Yea, I honestly didn't even know he declared until I saw his name pop up. I'm not planning on drafting him in every league or anything like that, but he could be worth a late flyer. He's disgustingly athletic On the other hand, major character red flags and he's a tweener to boot.

His athleticism really pops off the screen though, and his pro day numbers are about in line with what you'd expect. 4.29 40, 40.5" vertical, and 10'9" broad jump. That's a crazy leap for a 5'8" man, but not surprising when you consider that he has almost Olympic level speed in the 100m. This guy generates incredible north-south explosiveness and also has good agility to go along with it, which is what separates him from a lot of the track types.

 
EBF said:
Yea, I honestly didn't even know he declared until I saw his name pop up. I'm not planning on drafting him in every league or anything like that, but he could be worth a late flyer. He's disgustingly athletic On the other hand, major character red flags and he's a tweener to boot.

His athleticism really pops off the screen though, and his pro day numbers are about in line with what you'd expect. 4.29 40, 40.5" vertical, and 10'9" broad jump. That's a crazy leap for a 5'8" man, but not surprising when you consider that he has almost Olympic level speed in the 100m. This guy generates incredible north-south explosiveness and also has good agility to go along with it, which is what separates him from a lot of the track types.
Click to expand...
Seems like he could at least be a great returner, if he stays out of trouble and makes the team. 

 
Borden said:
I liked Demarcus Robinsons game but he has legitimate character concerns. How did he do with your numbers. I'm not sure if he even would've made your made your list because I don't believe he played enough games to make the cut off. 
Click to expand...
Demarcus Robinson's numbers were pretty good in 2014 - good market share, 9.3 YPT, raw totals weren't great. Hs production score was 3.6 on a scale where 0 is average, which is just a bit below the minimum that I usually like to see (4.0). But this year his numbers were way down: 520 yards & 2 TDs in 12 games, and around 7.0 YPT. Didn't make it into my spreadsheet, and would've scored badly if he did. PFF didn't bother writing a scouting report about him, but elsewhere they said that (UDFA) Jake McGee had Florida's highest receiving grade this year.

EBF said:
No science behind this, but I just don't think [Stephen Hill is] as put together or moves the same. He was not very agile. More of a pure straight-line guy. Speed is nice, but in the NFL I think the small window movements are just as important, if not more so. Receivers who aren't very fast, but can change directions quickly and efficiently often seem to do pretty well (i.e. Allen Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree). I see Hill as being similar to someone like Aaron Dobson. His game is all vertical and he can't plant-and-drive or do basically anything in the first 20 yards of the play.
Click to expand...
That might be true, but I don't know of any good way to include it in the formula. 3 Cone & short shuttle are the obvious drills to look at, but Stephen Hill actually had a very good 3 cone drill. His short shuttle was pretty slow, but in the same neighborhood as DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Hurns, Kenny Britt, and Marques Colston. The biggest knock on Hill that was visible in the data is that his raw totals (yards & TDs) were low. It's possible that should get more weight.

EBF said:
Any thoughts on Tyreek Hill? He is a nightmare off the field and a 'tweener on the field, but when I watched him at Oklahoma State a couple years ago I thought he had first round physical talent. He is more explosive and athletic than Tavon Austin or Brandin Cooks, albeit without anywhere near their production.
Click to expand...
Tyreek Hill looks very promising as a returner. At 185 pounds he probably can't make it as a RB. Raw athleticism is less useful at WR - it takes a bunch of route running & receiving skills to make it there - so I'm not optimistic about him turning into a Brandin Cooks. Might be worth a late flier.

 
I've gone back and added 3 more years of data to my college WR spreadsheet. You can now see college data from the 2005, 2006, and 2007 college seasons, and prospect ratings for WRs in the 2006, 2007, and 2008 draft classes. There is some missing data (e.g. I don't have data on long receptions for those draft classes), which I adjusted for by giving more weight to the stats that are most correlated with the missing stats.

I have updated the Top Rated tab, which shows the top rated WR prospects to enter the draft according to my numbers. There are two new names in the top 5. Calvin Johnson at #4 joins Stephen Hill and Demaryius Thomas as Georgia Tech receivers in my top 15. And Vernon Davis rates as #3 by my system - despite playing TE, he had both the college production and the workout numbers to qualify as one of the best receiving prospect of the past decade by the standards that I apply to WRs. 9 of my top 10 rated WR prospects were drafted in the first round (all but Stephen Hill), and 6 of the top 7 were drafted within the top 10 picks of the draft.

I have also updated the Elite NFL WRs tab (adding 8 WRs with 100+ career VBD in the NFL) and the Promising NFL WRs tab (adding 5 WRs who could've had 100+ career VBD if things had played out slightly differently or still might get there). 3 of those 13 players went to small schools and are missing from my college data set (elite WRs Marques Colston & Miles Austin and promising WR Pierre Garcon). Out of the other 10, all 10 had a career production rating above 4.0 and 7 of the 10 had an overall rating above 4.0 (two more had a overall rating above 3.9). Those 10, in declining order of overall rating: Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, Dwayne Bowe, Steve Smith (USC/NYG), DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson, Greg Jennings. Not bad for my rating system, especially considering that the list contains 3 first rounders, 5 second rounders, 1 fourth rounder (Marshall), and 1 seventh rounder (Stevie).

Looking at the By Draft Pick tab, there were 19 WRs from these 3 draft classes taken in the first 2 rounds. Here they are, sorted from highest overall rating to lowest: Calvin Johnson (11.2), Robert Meachem (9.5), James Hardy (7.4), Jordy Nelson (7.2), Santonio Holmes (6.8), Sidney Rice (6.5), Devin Thomas (6.4), Dwayne Bowe (5.5), Steve Smith (4.9), DeSean Jackson (4.0), Dwayne Jarrett (3.9), Donnie Avery (2.6), Malcolm Kelly (2.5), Greg Jennings (1.9), Ted Ginn (0.1), Chad Jackson (-5.7), Sinorice Moss (-7.6), Craig Davis (-9.3), and Anthony Gonzalez (-12.0). The top of that list has definitely done a lot more than the bottom.

 
Fun fact: Cody Kessler threw a TD on 39% of his red zone passes over the past two seasons (43/110), which is the highest rate in college football over that time period (min. 40ish attempts).

I was wondering if this number might be misleadingly high if Kessler took a bunch of red zone sacks (which are counted as rushing attempts), but he also scored a TD on 33% of his rushing attempts (6/18) so that's probably not much of an issue.

Average for a college QB is around a 26% TD rate on red zone passes. For comparison:

39% Cody Kessler (43/110), 2014-15
33% Jameis Winston (34/102), 2013-14
32% Jared Goff (46/143), 2014-15
30% Paxton Lynch (28/92), 2014-15
30% Garrett Grayson (24/80), 2013-14
28% Jacoby Brissett (29/102), 2014-15
28% Marcus Mariota (40/141), 2013-14
19% Christian Hackenberg (16/84), 2014-15

Data from cfbstats, which doesn't have North Dakota State data so no Wentz. Single season data is also in my QB spreadsheet.

 
ZWK said:
Fun fact: Cody Kessler threw a TD on 39% of his red zone passes over the past two seasons (43/110), which is the highest rate in college football over that time period (min. 40ish attempts).

I was wondering if this number might be misleadingly high if Kessler took a bunch of red zone sacks (which are counted as rushing attempts), but he also scored a TD on 33% of his rushing attempts (6/18) so that's probably not much of an issue.

Average for a college QB is around a 26% TD rate on red zone passes. For comparison:

39% Cody Kessler (43/110), 2014-15
33% Jameis Winston (34/102), 2013-14
32% Jared Goff (46/143), 2014-15
30% Paxton Lynch (28/92), 2014-15
30% Garrett Grayson (24/80), 2013-14
28% Jacoby Brissett (29/102), 2014-15
28% Marcus Mariota (40/141), 2013-14
19% Christian Hackenberg (16/84), 2014-15

Data from cfbstats, which doesn't have North Dakota State data so no Wentz. Single season data is also in my QB spreadsheet.
Click to expand...
Thanks!

 
Here are some post-draft rookie rankings (0.5 PPR), including where they fit into my positional dynasty rankings. For example, Elliott is my #3 RB overall behind Bell & Gurley. Tier breaks shown with line breaks, including a multi-tier gap after Elliott.

RB3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL

WR19 Corey Coleman CLE
WR21 Josh Doctson WAS
RB14 Derrick Henry TEN
WR24 Laquon Treadwell MIN

WR35 Leonte Carroo MIA
WR41 William Fuller HOU
WR46 Michael Thomas NO
WR47 Sterling Shepard NYG
QB9 Jared Goff RAM

TE13 Hunter Henry SD
RB31 Kenyan Drake MIA
WR50 Tyler Boyd CIN

QB14 Carson Wentz PHI
RB39 CJ Prosise SEA
RB41 Kenneth Dixon BAL
RB44 Paul Perkins NYG
RB45 Devontae Booker DEN
RB46 Jordan Howard CHI
QB20 Paxton Lynch DEN
WR62 Braxton Miller HOU
WR63 Malcolm Mitchell NE
TE27 Tyler Higbee RAM
TE28 Austin Hooper ATL

RB60 Alex Collins SEA
RB64 Jonathan Williams BUF
RB65 Tyler Ervin HOU
RB69 DeAndre Washington OAK
RB70 Daniel Lasco NO
RB71 Darius Jackson DAL
RB73 Keith Marshall WAS
TE33 Seth DeValve CLE
WR84 Trevor Davis GB
WR85 Moritz Böhringer MIN

QB37 Christian Hackenberg NYJ
WR99 Chris Moore BAL
WR100 Mike Thomas RAM
WR101 DJ Foster NE
QB39 Cody Kessler CLE
WR105 Rashard Higgins CLE
RB86 Wendell Smallwood PHI
WR114 Devin Lucien NE
WR115 Ricardo Louis CLE
WR116 Pharoh Cooper RAM
WR117 Demarcus Robinson KC
WR118 Tajae Sharpe TEN

Some players who I'm relatively high on, compared to conventional wisdom. Leonte Carroo - this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has been reading this thread. William Fuller - my numbers liked him and he was the 2nd WR off the board. With Fuller & Carroo I'm betting on talent over situation, in part because situation can change pretty quickly and in part because I'm more patient than most dynasty owners (plus it's unclear how bad a situation Miami is, with Parker not yet an established WR1 and Gase bringing a new scheme). Derrick Henry - the clear #2 RB in my opinion & the opinion of NFL draft order, another guy who seems to be getting downgraded due to situation but in his case I think his situation isn't that bad (though he may need a year or two to win the clear RB1 role). Jared Goff - the deserving #1 overall pick of the NFL draft, should be a first round fantasy pick in this weak draft class. Tyler Higbee - I liked his prospects earlier in the offseason, and going at pick #110 with the legal issues hanging over his head is a good sign about his perceived talent. Seth DeValve - he has the athleticism, and was drafted in the 4th round as a receiving TE. Trevor Davis - he's playing with Rodgers, who made James Jones a viable fantasy starter last year. DJ Foster - UDFA who could fit the Welker/Edelman role or the Vereen/Lewis role in NE.

Some players who I'm relatively down on, compared to conventional wisdom: RBs taken outside the top 130 (Dixon, Booker, Perkins, Howard) - it's rare for RBs from that part of the draft to have much NFL success, even after adjusting for the recent downgrade in RB value, plus I didn't rate any of them as more than an okay prospect. WRs taken outside the top 100 (especially Pharoah Cooper & Tajae Sharpe, and also Higgins, USM Thomas, Peake, Garrett) - it's rare for WRs from that part of the draft to have much NFL success, plus I didn't like Cooper or Sharpe as prospects (they were both possession receivers in college, and didn't seem particularly special). Laquon Treadwell - this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has been reading this thread. Sterling Shepard - I like him, just apparently not quite as much as some other people do; it seems like people are treating NYG as a good landing spot but I think it's a below average one with OBJ established as the #1 and Eli 35 years old.

 
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