Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
ZWK's 2016 Prospect Analysis (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ZWK
- Start date
ZWK
Footballguy
I just posted my updated WR rankings. Other positions should be coming out within the next week or two.
ZWK
Footballguy
I've been watching some RB game videos of guys who didn't enter this year's draft and updating my RB spreadsheet (including my Hard to Tackle rating). By my numbers, only 1 of the top 6 RB prospects in college football entered the draft this year (Elliott); the other 5 are still playing college football (Chubb, Fournette, Freeman, Perine, Cook). And in my opinion, only 2 of the top 9 RB prospects in college football entered the draft (adding Henry, Barkley, and McCaffrey to that list).
One takeaway: don't reach too much for the RBs after Henry in this year's draft class, because a big part of why so little draft value was spent on RBs is that most of the best RBs in college football had to stay in school. Another takeaway: check out the RB prospects coming down the pike over the next couple years.
Nick Chubb & Leonard Fournette already check all the boxes of elite prospects (except for having their athleticism verified at the combine). My formulas already puts them in the Gurley/Elliott tier. Chubb was there a year ago - ahead of Gurley - and Chubb is the RB who has impressed me the most on tape. Of course, he now has an injury question mark. I think I'd rank both of these guys among the top 6 dynasty RBs right now, behind Bell, Gurley, Elliott, and maybe David Johnson.
Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Royce Freeman and have looked much better in space than in traffic. McCaffrey looked incredibly slippery in space against Iowa (including while running routes) in one of the better RB games that I've seen. He wasn't as impressive against USC (and was caught from behind, twice, by Kevon Seymour). He also had amazing receiving numbers (including 10.7 YPT, which would be excellent for a WR), and looks to have a promising NFL future ahead of him. It remains to be seen how big his role will be and how much fantasy value it will have (he may be more of a Bush/Sproles type) - it is worth noting that he got pulled for Remound Wright in goal-line & short yardage situations. Cook had the best rushing stats of the three, but was terrible in short yardage situations. He was at his best turning well-blocked plays into huge gains. He is more boom-or-bust as an NFL prospect - he has a better shot at turning out to be a three-down back, but doesn't have as clear of a fallback role as McCaffrey. Freeman has the size-speed combo, and good stats. But his poor yards after contact in traffic (in the 3 games that I've watched) is a sign that he doesn't use his size well, and there is some concern that his stats are inflated by Oregon's offense. Still, my numbers have Freeman as the #4 RB prospect who was in college football last year (behind Chubb, Fournette, and Elliott) and PFF's grades also have him as last year's #4 overall RB (with McCaffrey swapped in for Chubb ahead of him), so I wouldn't knock him too far for those concerns.
Saquon Barkley & Samaje Perine are bigger & more balanced as RBs, but haven't offered as much in the passing game. Barkley's 3.88 yards after contact per carry was the most in college football, according to PFF. Perine's raw stats were more impressive, especially in 2014, but I think I prefer Barkley. Unfortunately, the game videos of Barkley's that I've seen are missing some carries so they may be somewhat misleading.
Other guys worth watching, who are among the pack behind Henry relative to this year's draft class: Elijah Hood, Elijah McGuire (the most elusive RB in 2014 according to PFF), Wayne Gallman, Kareem Hunt, Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson, Myles Gaskin (PFF graded him as a top 10 RB and near the top in YAC/att, though he isn't big or fast, has done very little as a receiver, and had unimpressive raw rushing stats), and Matt Breida (arguably the most productive runner in 2015).
One takeaway: don't reach too much for the RBs after Henry in this year's draft class, because a big part of why so little draft value was spent on RBs is that most of the best RBs in college football had to stay in school. Another takeaway: check out the RB prospects coming down the pike over the next couple years.
Nick Chubb & Leonard Fournette already check all the boxes of elite prospects (except for having their athleticism verified at the combine). My formulas already puts them in the Gurley/Elliott tier. Chubb was there a year ago - ahead of Gurley - and Chubb is the RB who has impressed me the most on tape. Of course, he now has an injury question mark. I think I'd rank both of these guys among the top 6 dynasty RBs right now, behind Bell, Gurley, Elliott, and maybe David Johnson.
Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Royce Freeman and have looked much better in space than in traffic. McCaffrey looked incredibly slippery in space against Iowa (including while running routes) in one of the better RB games that I've seen. He wasn't as impressive against USC (and was caught from behind, twice, by Kevon Seymour). He also had amazing receiving numbers (including 10.7 YPT, which would be excellent for a WR), and looks to have a promising NFL future ahead of him. It remains to be seen how big his role will be and how much fantasy value it will have (he may be more of a Bush/Sproles type) - it is worth noting that he got pulled for Remound Wright in goal-line & short yardage situations. Cook had the best rushing stats of the three, but was terrible in short yardage situations. He was at his best turning well-blocked plays into huge gains. He is more boom-or-bust as an NFL prospect - he has a better shot at turning out to be a three-down back, but doesn't have as clear of a fallback role as McCaffrey. Freeman has the size-speed combo, and good stats. But his poor yards after contact in traffic (in the 3 games that I've watched) is a sign that he doesn't use his size well, and there is some concern that his stats are inflated by Oregon's offense. Still, my numbers have Freeman as the #4 RB prospect who was in college football last year (behind Chubb, Fournette, and Elliott) and PFF's grades also have him as last year's #4 overall RB (with McCaffrey swapped in for Chubb ahead of him), so I wouldn't knock him too far for those concerns.
Saquon Barkley & Samaje Perine are bigger & more balanced as RBs, but haven't offered as much in the passing game. Barkley's 3.88 yards after contact per carry was the most in college football, according to PFF. Perine's raw stats were more impressive, especially in 2014, but I think I prefer Barkley. Unfortunately, the game videos of Barkley's that I've seen are missing some carries so they may be somewhat misleading.
Other guys worth watching, who are among the pack behind Henry relative to this year's draft class: Elijah Hood, Elijah McGuire (the most elusive RB in 2014 according to PFF), Wayne Gallman, Kareem Hunt, Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson, Myles Gaskin (PFF graded him as a top 10 RB and near the top in YAC/att, though he isn't big or fast, has done very little as a receiver, and had unimpressive raw rushing stats), and Matt Breida (arguably the most productive runner in 2015).
EBF
Footballguy
He has ridiculous lower body strength and balance given how little he weighs (he self reports a weight around 195 in a recent interview).
https://youtu.be/vcJTo6ucgDg?t=15m58s
https://youtu.be/vcJTo6ucgDg?t=19m24s
He apparently ran a 10.82 automatic in the 100m in high school, so his speed may be a little better than you're giving him credit for:
http://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/Athlete.aspx?AID=4036967#/L0
He was state champion in the 100m, albeit in a slow state/divison.
On the field he does have some speed:
https://youtu.be/vcJTo6ucgDg?t=1h50m27s
I think he's a faster, slightly smaller version of Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah ran a 11.19 in HS:
http://www.all-athletics.com/node/576742
Abdullah got all the way up to 205 pounds for the combine. If Gaskin can maintain his production and add some weight then I think he has a chance to be a 2nd round pick like Abdullah. I think size/speed issues will keep him out of the first round, but he's not slow.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
On the topic of track, here's an updated list of 100m PRs for football players. Some of these are HS times and some of them are college times, so they don't all match in terms of being at the same stage of development, but I think they have pretty good predictive value for the 40.
QB Usain Bolt, Jamaica (2008) - 9.58
RB Jamaal Charles, Texas (2006) - 10.13* (10.23 best wind-legal)
RB Keith Marshall, Georgia (2011) - 10.20
RB CJ Spiller, Clemson (2009) - 10.22* (10.29 best wind-legal)
RB Jahvid Best, Cal (2007) - 10.31* (10.36 best wind-legal)
RB De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon (2013) - 10.31* (10.61 best wind-legal)
RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma (2003) - 10.33* (10.56 best wind-legal)
RB Reggie Bush, USC (2002) - 10.42
WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson (2011) - 10.52
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee (2012) - 10.54
WR Andre Johnson, Miami (2002) - 10.59
RB Byron Marshall, Oregon (2012) - 10.61
RB Shane Vereen, Cal (2009) - 10.66* (10.74 best wind-legal)
RB Leonard Fournette, LSU (2014) - 10.68
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia (2014) - 10.69
RB Karlos Williams, Florida State (2011) - 10.70
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia (2011) - 10.70
WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State (2012) - 10.72
WR Marqise Lee, USC (2011) - 10.74*
RB Maurice (Jones) Drew, UCLA (2002) - 10.80
RB Lache Seastrunk, Baylor (2010) - 10.81
WR Santana Moss, Miami (1999) - 10.82
RB Myles Gaskin, Washington (2015) - 10.82
WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford (2011) - 10.84
RB Kenyan Drake, Alabama (2011) - 10.84
WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee (2012) - 10.86
RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (2013) - 10.89
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State (2012) - 10.90
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri (2011) - 10.92
RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State (2013) - 10.92
RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma (2013) - 10.96
RB Shock Linwood, Baylor (2011) 10.98
WR Leonte Carroo, Rutgers (2011) - 11.01
WR Marquez North, Tennessee (2012) - 11.11
RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (2011) - 11.19
I have mentioned this elsewhere, but in addition to being a burner in the 100m, Chubb was state champion in the shotput with a toss of 55 ft. FREAK!
I went back recently and watched college highlights of some of the best RBs of the last 15 years (Ahman Green, Ricky, Peterson, J Lewis, Alexander). I think a pre-injury Chubb was that good. He is one of the best backs I have ever evaluated.
Myles Gaskin was also one of the better shotputters in his region, but his 48 ft toss is well off the mark of what Chubb did.
QB Usain Bolt, Jamaica (2008) - 9.58
RB Jamaal Charles, Texas (2006) - 10.13* (10.23 best wind-legal)
RB Keith Marshall, Georgia (2011) - 10.20
RB CJ Spiller, Clemson (2009) - 10.22* (10.29 best wind-legal)
RB Jahvid Best, Cal (2007) - 10.31* (10.36 best wind-legal)
RB De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon (2013) - 10.31* (10.61 best wind-legal)
RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma (2003) - 10.33* (10.56 best wind-legal)
RB Reggie Bush, USC (2002) - 10.42
WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson (2011) - 10.52
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee (2012) - 10.54
WR Andre Johnson, Miami (2002) - 10.59
RB Byron Marshall, Oregon (2012) - 10.61
RB Shane Vereen, Cal (2009) - 10.66* (10.74 best wind-legal)
RB Leonard Fournette, LSU (2014) - 10.68
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia (2014) - 10.69
RB Karlos Williams, Florida State (2011) - 10.70
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia (2011) - 10.70
WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State (2012) - 10.72
WR Marqise Lee, USC (2011) - 10.74*
RB Maurice (Jones) Drew, UCLA (2002) - 10.80
RB Lache Seastrunk, Baylor (2010) - 10.81
WR Santana Moss, Miami (1999) - 10.82
RB Myles Gaskin, Washington (2015) - 10.82
WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford (2011) - 10.84
RB Kenyan Drake, Alabama (2011) - 10.84
WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee (2012) - 10.86
RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (2013) - 10.89
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State (2012) - 10.90
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri (2011) - 10.92
RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State (2013) - 10.92
RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma (2013) - 10.96
RB Shock Linwood, Baylor (2011) 10.98
WR Leonte Carroo, Rutgers (2011) - 11.01
WR Marquez North, Tennessee (2012) - 11.11
RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (2011) - 11.19
I have mentioned this elsewhere, but in addition to being a burner in the 100m, Chubb was state champion in the shotput with a toss of 55 ft. FREAK!
I went back recently and watched college highlights of some of the best RBs of the last 15 years (Ahman Green, Ricky, Peterson, J Lewis, Alexander). I think a pre-injury Chubb was that good. He is one of the best backs I have ever evaluated.
Myles Gaskin was also one of the better shotputters in his region, but his 48 ft toss is well off the mark of what Chubb did.
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK
Footballguy
What's your source for these? All Athletics has Fournette's PR as a wind-aided 10.78 (which translates to a 10.90) and Gaskin's as a 10.87.
I roughly estimate a 10.50 as a 4.40 40 and a 11.00 as a 4.50 40, which puts most of these in the 4.45-4.50 range. Marshall's 10.20 translates into a 4.34 40, which is close to his 4.31. Gaskin's 10.82 translates into a 4.46 (or his 10.87 translates into a 4.47), which is a bit faster than the 4.50 which nfldraftscout has for him.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
All-Athletics is my go-to resource, but their database is not comprehensive. For example, I know that Fournette ran a 10.68 at his regional meet in his last year of high school even though they have his wind-aided PR as 10.78.
They have Gaskin's PR as a 10.87, but another site shows him with a 10.82 automatic earlier in the season.
Your 100-to-40 conversion makes sense to me and seem sound in general. That being said, I think some guys are slow starters/fast finishers while others might be fast starters/slow finishers. For example, MJD "only" ran a 10.80 in the 100m in HS, but was clocked at 4.39 in the 40 at the combine. That 40 time is faster than you'd predict by looking at his 100m. It could be that he's really fast out of the blocks with a modest top speed. On the other hand, Marqise Lee has been clocked at 10.74 in the 100m, but managed just a 4.52 at the combine. That's a slower 40 time than you'd expect from his 100m time. In general though, fast is fast.
Xue
Footballguy
I've begun measuring top speed of college players, mostly RBs.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qEfsV2tKdVJ_xoVGVzPtXnnsuvbXU7XAy4mvSGGyxyM/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qEfsV2tKdVJ_xoVGVzPtXnnsuvbXU7XAy4mvSGGyxyM/edit?usp=sharing
FUBAR
Footballguy
agreed, but that seems to have more to do with a willingness to take risk and valuing upside over solid performance.
In a 12 team, 1QB start league, I'd rather have Goff than most non-elite QBs because an adequate starter is cheap. Eli/Stafford/Bridgewater/etc are so cheap in the smaller leagues that it's usually worth gambling on a guy you like. Now, I wouldn't put him over Bortles, Carr, MM, Winston, Tannehill or the current elite 5, so he's my #11 but that's close enough to be irrelevant. The remainder of his rankings follow suit, at the extreme end, Kessler over guys like Glennon or Hundley is just preference and over Sanchez is an easy call in small leagues.
Now, if you're playing in 32 team leagues or 2 start leagues, this changes. In the 32 team league I'll take Eli/Stafford well above a rookie I don't have any real faith in. but it really just boils down to your priority of risk/reward vs. the safe pick.
spider321
Footballguy
In regards to these 100 meter times, I can tell you that most universities have rubberized tracks, and most high schools do not.
Times are going to be significantly faster on the rubberized surface.
Without knowing which surface these numbers were timed on, the data is somewhat useless.
Times are going to be significantly faster on the rubberized surface.
Without knowing which surface these numbers were timed on, the data is somewhat useless.
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK
Footballguy
After watching some more of these guys:
Samaje Perine keeps climbing my rankings. Makes things happen in space and in traffic. With the larger sample size to evaluate his elusiveness, my formula now has him as the #3 RB in college football last year (behind Chubb & Fournette, ahead of Elliott).
Pro Football Focus has some very positive things to say about Royce Freeman, including data on his yards after contact & broken tackles. Those numbers are enough to move him ahead of Elliott as well - Freeman is in the #4 spot, with Elliott at #5.
McCaffrey has looked very different from game to game. Against Iowa he was too quick - they couldn't get a hold of him in space. But Notre Dame kept him bottled up and didn't have any trouble bringing him down.
Wayne Gallman has also looked very different from game to game. Oklahoma struggled to bring him down, as he showed tons of power & determination to fight for extra yards. But Boston College had no trouble stopping him in his tracks, again and again. On the whole, his biggest strength does seem to be as a power back fighting for the tough yard. But I'd like to see more games of him (and of McCaffrey) to see where their numbers settle down over a larger sample size.
Corey Clement is one guy who was missing from my previous post, who should be in the lower portion of my "worth watching" list. He has good elusiveness numbers from the few games that I've watched (mostly from 2014), but I think they're inflated by misdirection plays where he ran through a huge hole to the 3rd level and then ran by a DB who had a bad angle. Technically, those count as a missed tackle in space with a lot of yards after the tackling attempt, even though they don't take much skill from the RB. I imagine that we'll get much better data on him next year with Gordon out of the picture.
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
Rubberized tracks are now common in WV as well. If it is common here in Podunk, no one else has any excuses.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
From a fantasy perspective I'm very uneasy of Freeman coming from Oregon's style of offense just screams caution. They had good running backs in the past that have struggled at the next level. I guess I just need to see more. I prefer backs who play in a pro style offense and have some experience blocking for their QB which is very important at the next level.
ETA: What data do you have on that 2017 class?
GM
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK
Footballguy
I don't. I also don't have a full PPR ranking. But they're both pretty close to the 0.5 PPR ranking that I posted. Non-ppr gives a bit of a boost to QBs, non-pass-catching RBs like Henry & Collins, and deep threat WRs like Fuller, but not by enough to be very noticeable in the rankings.
I agree that Freeman's stats are less impressive given the offense that he's on, but I don't think Oregon has much history of churning out RB busts. LaMichael James & Kenjon Barner were both undersized backs who didn't look all that promising as NFL prospects (though James was overdrafted). Jonathan Stewart has basically lived up to expectations, except for the injuries. LeGarrette Blount has exceeded expectations for a UDFA.
bennettjd13
Footballguy
ZWK, your spreadsheets are sick. Thanks for sharing all of these. Do you have a comprehensive list of all of them you could share?
ZWK
Footballguy
The ones for prospects are linked in the first post of this thread: WR, RB, RB elusiveness, QB, TE, and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings).
bennettjd13
Footballguy
Sorry, should have been more specific. I'm trying to add these to my google drive for easy access if you don't mind. Some of your links allow me to do that, some don't. The ones in the above quote do not. The ones like this one, RB spreadsheet, do.
ZWK
Footballguy
Just delete the "pubhtml#" at the end of each url and you should be able to access them as a spreadsheet.
bennettjd13
Footballguy
Awesome, thanks, worked like a charm.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
From a fantasy perspective I believe it really depends on what one would consider a bust. Considering how Oregon's running backs generally produce at a high level in college the very rarely adopt to the NFL that I would deem as successful. Of that group Stew is the only one that I would consider successful. Blount probably #2 but even he was on the verge of being unemployed this season. Even though I agree in what you're saying I'm speaking in terms of the hype, production, and rankings they just don't come through when they actually make it to the NFL.
Im trying to see why people are ranking in so high in fantasy leagues and I just don't see it. He's big, strong, and has some burst but so are most LBs in the NFL.
Tex
Xue
Footballguy
The ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact is independent of offensive system.
