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ZWK's 2016 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZWK
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ZWK
Footballguy
Booker's rushing stats were not very good. For example, only 3% of his non-redzone carries went for 20+ yards - the average is around 6% - and his 2014 numbers were similar. He also doesn't seem to be particularly big or particularly fast.
He did have good receiving numbers, and I kinda liked what I've seen from him, which is why he made this list.
CalBear
Footballguy
Cal spreads the ball around a lot (6 receivers over 40 receptions, none over 52) so it's hard to get at their skill statistically. Of the senior receivers, my eyeball impression is that Trevor Davis is more likely to make it in the NFL than Treggs; he's taller and I think he's faster too. He also has done a lot more kick returning, which will help him stick on an NFL roster.
The guy who's really the best NFL prospect is Kenny Lawler; he's a junior and he may come out, although he's waited a while to make any announcement. He's pretty much unstoppable in possession/end zone situations, but he could use another 10 pounds for the kind of game he'll need to play in the NFL.
Daniel Lasco is also worth looking at at the RB position. Injuries killed a lot of his senior season. He's got good size, what looks like decent speed, and can catch; I think Forte is the best comp for him. McShay has him as the #7 RB but he could go anywhere from 5 to 20.
The guy who's really the best NFL prospect is Kenny Lawler; he's a junior and he may come out, although he's waited a while to make any announcement. He's pretty much unstoppable in possession/end zone situations, but he could use another 10 pounds for the kind of game he'll need to play in the NFL.
Daniel Lasco is also worth looking at at the RB position. Injuries killed a lot of his senior season. He's got good size, what looks like decent speed, and can catch; I think Forte is the best comp for him. McShay has him as the #7 RB but he could go anywhere from 5 to 20.
ZWK
Footballguy
Sophomore WR, not draft eligible yet. If he was in this draft I wouldn't like him much, but he did produce enough to show some promise if he can take another step up next year. His production this year ranks 29th among WRs, and 6th among WRs who are not draft eligible (with the caveat that the data on targets hasn't been updated since Thanksgiving). A lot of long receptions (40+ yards), pretty good at yards per target & scoring TDs, below average market share (of team's passing yards). Apparently he's not that big or that fast (unless nfldraftscout is wrong about him), which raises some doubts about his NFL upside.
ZWK
Footballguy
Given how good Goff is, I'm pretty pessimistic about Cal's receivers. I think the spreading around is a consequence of their lack of talented receivers - JuJu Smith-Schuster's numbers would have stood out from the pack of Cal receivers if he'd been on the roster. Treggs is the only guy who topped 700 yards (he had 956) on a team that threw for almost 4900. What I've seen when I've watched them matches that - Goff looked like a quarterback who was not getting a whole lot of help from his receivers. Lawler looked plenty stoppable on the slant against Utah.
My numbers are actually pretty positive on Treggs, who got those yards efficiently at around 12.6 yards per target (with 17 25+ yard gains). I'm skeptical, but if an NFL team likes him enough to draft him in the first 3 rounds then I guess I'll be on board with him.
Lasco's 2014 receiving numbers look better than his rushing numbers. I don't particularly like him based on his stats - that might change if I watch some videos of him.
Which numbers? Juju is great and I watched him in person a bunch in HS (he was actually a better prospect on defense). But, as CalBear is alluding to, you need to take into consideration offensive systems.
Southern Cal has always featured one to two WRs. Just look at the reception totals of their leading receivers the last several years and the % of receptions/targets they receive. That, along with being Southern Cal, is a big reason why they recruit the position so well. If you get a starting gig at Southern Cal, you will be fed and fed a lot.
Cal, like UCLA, doesn't really do that. At Cal, Juju's numbers would drop from what they are at Southern Cal. They just run different systems.
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CalBear
Footballguy
It's not only the system, it's also the rotation. It looks like you're not using snap counts in your calculations, and Cal rotates new receivers in way more than most teams do. We spread the ball around not only because we're using 3-5 receiver sets, but also because there isn't a pure starter who's on the field for every play.
Lawler was the best Cal receiver, and he will make it in the NFL. Treggs is like his dad; very good college receiver, hard worker, good route runner, but lacks the physical tools to make it in the NFL.
I mentioned Trevor Davis, who will get a chance somewhere if he runs well. Maurice Harris is under the radar; he was our best WR after the catch and if he puts up a fast time could get some attention.
ZWK
Footballguy
JuJu has accounted for 39% of USC's receiving yards this year. Keenan Allen had 36% of Cal's receiving yards in the 9 games he played in 2012. For Cal this year, Treggs leads the way with 20%, and Lawler & the rest are all below 14%.
As CalBear noted, Sonny Dykes took over for Jeff Tedford, who was the coach of Allen's 2012 Cal team.
It's not just Juju, either. Take a look at previous #1 WRs at Southern Cal, such as Nelson Agholor, Marqise Lee, and Robert Woods. Southern Cal peppers their top receivers with targets, which leads to huge reception and yardage totals. That's not to say that they aren't great talents because Juju, Agholor and Woods were all 5 stars, and Lee was a 4 star coming out of HS. Their second leading receiver is a corner back.
Put another way, if Treggs, who was also a highly-touted 4-star recruit out of SoCal, was at Southern Cal and Juju was at Cal, I think you'd see a large bump in Treggs' numbers and a drop in Juju's numbers.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Maybe. But stop.
ZWK
Footballguy
I posted my RB rankings a few days ago. Now here's a more in-depth look at which RBs are the best at getting the tough yard.
Instead of writing a bunch of words, I'll build this post around 3 lists ranking RBs. List 1: RBs ranked by short yardage conversion rate - who is picking up the first down most consistently on 3rd & short (and whose team is trusting them with those carries). List 2: red zone TD rate - who is getting into the end zone with their red zone carries, and whose team is trusting them with those carries. List 3: capped yards after contact in traffic, based on my game charting - how many extra yards do RBs pick up after the defense first gets a chance to tackle them, when they're facing multiple defenders or they don't have room to maneuver.
I've included 26 RBs in these lists, 20 with a shot at being taken in the first 3 rounds this year, and 6 with a shot at being taken in the first round next year (the non draft eligible RBs are marked with a *).
First, short yardage conversion rate. This includes all carries on 3rd & 3 or less or on 4th down, in 2014 and 2015. A first down or a touchdown counts as a success (and some plays which are both first downs and touchdowns wind up getting doublecounted as successes, because of the weird way that those stats get tracked.) Data from cfbstats.
Short Yardage Conversion Rate
85.3% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (34 att)
85.2% Matt Breida Ga South (27 att)
84.2% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (19 att)
83.6% Devontae Booker Utah (61 att)
82.5% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (40 att) *
80.6% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (31 att)
78.3% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (23 att)
77.6% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (67 att)
75.0% Kelvin Taylor Florida (32 att)
75.0% Wayne Gallman Clemson (40 att)
75.0% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (52 att)
74.1% Royce Freeman Oregon (54 att) *
73.7% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (19 att) *
73.5% Shock Linwood Baylor (49 att)
72.7% Alex Collins Arkansas (22 att)
69.2% Derrick Henry Alabama (39 att)
69.0% Paul Perkins UCLA (42 att)
67.6% Kareem Hunt Toledo (34 att)
66.7% Corey Clement Wisconsin (15 att)
64.3% Wendell Smallwood WVU (28 att)
63.6% Nick Chubb Georgia (22 att) *
62.5% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (32 att)
61.5% Aaron Green TCU (26 att)
50.0% Leonard Fournette LSU (22 att) *
47.1% Dalvin Cook FSU (17 att) *
33.3% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (6 att)
Having a high conversion rate with a large number of attempts is the best sign here, since it means 1) that the RB was very effective at converting with the chances that he got, 2) that there's a large enough sample size so that the high conversion rate is less likely to reflect chance, and 3) that the team trusted the RB in short yardage situations enough to give him a bunch of carries.
Second, red zone TD rate. Again, data from cfbstats from 2014 and 2015. This is just number of touchdowns scored on red zone carries, divided by number of carries in the red zone.
Red Zone TD Rate
32.30% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (99 att)
30.00% Alex Collins Arkansas (50 att)
29.30% Leonard Fournette LSU (75 att) *
29.10% Matt Breida Ga South (55 att)
29.10% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (103 att)
29.00% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (62 att)
28.30% Kelvin Taylor Florida (46 att)
27.00% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (100 att) *
26.70% Kareem Hunt Toledo (75 att)
26.20% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (42 att)
25.20% Royce Freeman Oregon (115 att) *
24.50% Shock Linwood Baylor (94 att)
24.30% Paul Perkins UCLA (70 att)
23.70% Derrick Henry Alabama (97 att)
23.70% Corey Clement Wisconsin (38 att)
23.40% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (47 att)
23.10% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (26 att)
20.70% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (111 att)
19.50% Nick Chubb Georgia (41 att) *
19.20% Aaron Green TCU (78 att)
18.90% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (90 att)
18.80% Devontae Booker Utah (69 att)
18.80% Dalvin Cook FSU (64 att) *
17.90% Wayne Gallman Clemson (67 att)
11.50% Wendell Smallwood WVU (61 att)
8.80% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (68 att) *
It's worth noting that some RBs (like McCaffrey) tend to get the carries from the 19 yard line but not the carries from the 2 yard line, which hurts their TD rate (but it's also a bad sign that their teams prefer another RB for those goalline carries).
Third, traffic capped yards after contact based on my charting. A play gets counted as being in space if the RB's first encounter with a defender happens involves just one defender and the RB had some room to maneuver; otherwise it is counted as being in traffic (even if it involves facing two safeties 12 yards downfield). Each play is capped to be between 0 and 8 yards. I only have data for 19 of these RBs, and for some it's a tiny sample size.
Traffic Capped Yards After Contact
3.28 Nick Chubb Georgia (50 att) *
3.02 Alex Collins Arkansas (65 att)
2.96 Shock Linwood Baylor (28 att)
2.86 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (94 att)
2.73 Paul Perkins UCLA (26 att)
2.68 Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (41 att)
2.67 DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (15 att)
2.65 Derrick Henry Alabama (95 att)
2.59 Leonard Fournette LSU (49 att) *
2.50 Devontae Booker Utah (92 att)
2.41 Kareem Hunt Toledo (49 att)
2.28 Kenneth Dixon La Tech (69 att)
2.23 C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (60 att)
2.17 Jonathan Williams Arkansas (47 att)
2.00 Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (3 att)
1.85 Matt Breida Ga South (20 att)
1.63 Wendell Smallwood WVU (8 att)
1.44 Aaron Green TCU (27 att)
1.42 Dalvin Cook FSU (12 att) *
Ezekiel Elliott stands out as someone who is consistently near the top in these three stats, with a large number of attempts. Perine is up there on the first 2 lists, but I haven't charted his yards after contact yet. Relatively good numbers for Linwood, Collins, and Perkins (though my sense watching Linwood is that he faced more easy plays). Derrick Henry tends to be near the middle or slightly above. Aaron Green, Wendell Smallwood, and Dalvin Cook stand out as repeatedly appearing near the bottom (though sometimes with a small sample size) - that may be a worrying sign about a hole in Cook's game. Prosise is also in the bottom half of each list, despite his size.
Instead of writing a bunch of words, I'll build this post around 3 lists ranking RBs. List 1: RBs ranked by short yardage conversion rate - who is picking up the first down most consistently on 3rd & short (and whose team is trusting them with those carries). List 2: red zone TD rate - who is getting into the end zone with their red zone carries, and whose team is trusting them with those carries. List 3: capped yards after contact in traffic, based on my game charting - how many extra yards do RBs pick up after the defense first gets a chance to tackle them, when they're facing multiple defenders or they don't have room to maneuver.
I've included 26 RBs in these lists, 20 with a shot at being taken in the first 3 rounds this year, and 6 with a shot at being taken in the first round next year (the non draft eligible RBs are marked with a *).
First, short yardage conversion rate. This includes all carries on 3rd & 3 or less or on 4th down, in 2014 and 2015. A first down or a touchdown counts as a success (and some plays which are both first downs and touchdowns wind up getting doublecounted as successes, because of the weird way that those stats get tracked.) Data from cfbstats.
Short Yardage Conversion Rate
85.3% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (34 att)
85.2% Matt Breida Ga South (27 att)
84.2% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (19 att)
83.6% Devontae Booker Utah (61 att)
82.5% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (40 att) *
80.6% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (31 att)
78.3% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (23 att)
77.6% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (67 att)
75.0% Kelvin Taylor Florida (32 att)
75.0% Wayne Gallman Clemson (40 att)
75.0% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (52 att)
74.1% Royce Freeman Oregon (54 att) *
73.7% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (19 att) *
73.5% Shock Linwood Baylor (49 att)
72.7% Alex Collins Arkansas (22 att)
69.2% Derrick Henry Alabama (39 att)
69.0% Paul Perkins UCLA (42 att)
67.6% Kareem Hunt Toledo (34 att)
66.7% Corey Clement Wisconsin (15 att)
64.3% Wendell Smallwood WVU (28 att)
63.6% Nick Chubb Georgia (22 att) *
62.5% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (32 att)
61.5% Aaron Green TCU (26 att)
50.0% Leonard Fournette LSU (22 att) *
47.1% Dalvin Cook FSU (17 att) *
33.3% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (6 att)
Having a high conversion rate with a large number of attempts is the best sign here, since it means 1) that the RB was very effective at converting with the chances that he got, 2) that there's a large enough sample size so that the high conversion rate is less likely to reflect chance, and 3) that the team trusted the RB in short yardage situations enough to give him a bunch of carries.
Second, red zone TD rate. Again, data from cfbstats from 2014 and 2015. This is just number of touchdowns scored on red zone carries, divided by number of carries in the red zone.
Red Zone TD Rate
32.30% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (99 att)
30.00% Alex Collins Arkansas (50 att)
29.30% Leonard Fournette LSU (75 att) *
29.10% Matt Breida Ga South (55 att)
29.10% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (103 att)
29.00% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (62 att)
28.30% Kelvin Taylor Florida (46 att)
27.00% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (100 att) *
26.70% Kareem Hunt Toledo (75 att)
26.20% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (42 att)
25.20% Royce Freeman Oregon (115 att) *
24.50% Shock Linwood Baylor (94 att)
24.30% Paul Perkins UCLA (70 att)
23.70% Derrick Henry Alabama (97 att)
23.70% Corey Clement Wisconsin (38 att)
23.40% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (47 att)
23.10% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (26 att)
20.70% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (111 att)
19.50% Nick Chubb Georgia (41 att) *
19.20% Aaron Green TCU (78 att)
18.90% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (90 att)
18.80% Devontae Booker Utah (69 att)
18.80% Dalvin Cook FSU (64 att) *
17.90% Wayne Gallman Clemson (67 att)
11.50% Wendell Smallwood WVU (61 att)
8.80% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (68 att) *
It's worth noting that some RBs (like McCaffrey) tend to get the carries from the 19 yard line but not the carries from the 2 yard line, which hurts their TD rate (but it's also a bad sign that their teams prefer another RB for those goalline carries).
Third, traffic capped yards after contact based on my charting. A play gets counted as being in space if the RB's first encounter with a defender happens involves just one defender and the RB had some room to maneuver; otherwise it is counted as being in traffic (even if it involves facing two safeties 12 yards downfield). Each play is capped to be between 0 and 8 yards. I only have data for 19 of these RBs, and for some it's a tiny sample size.
Traffic Capped Yards After Contact
3.28 Nick Chubb Georgia (50 att) *
3.02 Alex Collins Arkansas (65 att)
2.96 Shock Linwood Baylor (28 att)
2.86 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (94 att)
2.73 Paul Perkins UCLA (26 att)
2.68 Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (41 att)
2.67 DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (15 att)
2.65 Derrick Henry Alabama (95 att)
2.59 Leonard Fournette LSU (49 att) *
2.50 Devontae Booker Utah (92 att)
2.41 Kareem Hunt Toledo (49 att)
2.28 Kenneth Dixon La Tech (69 att)
2.23 C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (60 att)
2.17 Jonathan Williams Arkansas (47 att)
2.00 Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (3 att)
1.85 Matt Breida Ga South (20 att)
1.63 Wendell Smallwood WVU (8 att)
1.44 Aaron Green TCU (27 att)
1.42 Dalvin Cook FSU (12 att) *
Ezekiel Elliott stands out as someone who is consistently near the top in these three stats, with a large number of attempts. Perine is up there on the first 2 lists, but I haven't charted his yards after contact yet. Relatively good numbers for Linwood, Collins, and Perkins (though my sense watching Linwood is that he faced more easy plays). Derrick Henry tends to be near the middle or slightly above. Aaron Green, Wendell Smallwood, and Dalvin Cook stand out as repeatedly appearing near the bottom (though sometimes with a small sample size) - that may be a worrying sign about a hole in Cook's game. Prosise is also in the bottom half of each list, despite his size.
Rodeojones
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
ZWK
Footballguy
Following up on my RB rankings and the stats related to getting the tough yard, here are some stats on which RBs are able to break off a big play. Three stats, usually cumulative 2014-15 numbers:
* Percent of (non-red-zone) carries going for 20+ yards (with data from cfbstats)
* Number of 20+ yard receptions per 12 games (with data from cfbstats that took some more work to put together)
* Yards after contact in space, capped at 15 (based on my game charting)
20+ Yard Runs Per non-RZ Attempt
10.4% Dalvin Cook FSU (335 att) *
9.6% Nick Chubb Georgia (270 att) *
9.4% Kareem Hunt Toledo (308 att)
8.7% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (389 att) *
8.4% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (131 att)
7.7% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (311 att) *
7.6% Corey Clement Wisconsin (157 att)
6.8% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (351 att)
6.8% Leonard Fournette LSU (412 att) *
6.7% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (313 att)
6.4% Royce Freeman Oregon (420 att) *
6.1% Alex Collins Arkansas (425 att)
6.1% Aaron Green TCU (295 att)
6.0% Derrick Henry Alabama (434 att)
5.5% Wayne Gallman Clemson (363 att)
5.4% Shock Linwood Baylor (353 att)
5.4% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (459 att)
5.2% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (310 att)
4.9% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (164 att)
4.8% Paul Perkins UCLA (418 att)
4.6% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (194 att)
4.6% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (412 att)
4.3% Wendell Smallwood WVU (325 att)
3.8% Kelvin Taylor Florida (213 att)
3.1% Devontae Booker Utah (491 att)
This is where Cook shines. Unfortunatley the top of this list is dominated by non-draft-eligible players and backs who faced questionable competition. Also a nice showing from Prosise. Average is around 6%.
20+ Yards Receptions per 12 Games
7.00 Christian McCaffrey Stanford (24 g) *
6.24 Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (25 g)
5.74 Devontae Booker Utah (23 g)
5.28 Kenneth Dixon La Tech (25 g)
4.80 DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (25 g)
3.60 C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (10 g)
3.36 Leonard Fournette LSU (25 g) *
3.23 Paul Perkins UCLA (26 g)
2.88 Dalvin Cook FSU (25 g) *
2.57 Royce Freeman Oregon (28 g) *
2.53 Nick Chubb Georgia (19 g) *
2.31 Wendell Smallwood WVU (26 g)
1.85 Aaron Green TCU (26 g)
1.71 Derrick Henry Alabama (28 g)
1.44 Shock Linwood Baylor (25 g)
1.33 Corey Clement Wisconsin (18 g)
1.14 Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (21 g)
0.92 Jonathan Williams Arkansas (13 g)
0.92 Alex Collins Arkansas (26 g)
0.86 Kelvin Taylor Florida (14 g)
0.86 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (28 g)
0.46 Wayne Gallman Clemson (26 g)
0.46 Samaje Perine Oklahoma (26 g) *
0.00 Kareem Hunt Toledo (19 g)
0.00 Johnny Jefferson Baylor (22 g)
McCaffrey leads the way here - he also had a good number of long runs. The Louisiana boys (McGuire & Dixon) also showed well in both categories. Booker is near the top here, but was at the bottom in the running game. Some questions about how much Elliott will be able to do in the passing game given his lack of big plays there.
Space Capped Yards After Contact
10.00 Leonard Fournette LSU (18 att) *
9.20 Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (5 att)
7.93 DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (14 att)
7.53 Kareem Hunt Toledo (17 att)
7.45 Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (22 att)
7.33 Nick Chubb Georgia (35 att) *
7.32 Jonathan Williams Arkansas (22 att)
7.30 Alex Collins Arkansas (23 att)
7.27 Kenneth Dixon La Tech (48 att)
7.17 Paul Perkins UCLA (23 att)
6.96 Derrick Henry Alabama (48 att)
6.93 Dalvin Cook FSU (14 att) *
6.32 C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (31 att)
6.24 Devontae Booker Utah (29 att)
6.19 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (54 att)
6.13 Matt Breida Ga South (16 att)
5.44 Shock Linwood Baylor (16 att)
4.79 Aaron Green TCU (19 att)
3.33 Wendell Smallwood WVU (6 att)
Small sample sizes here, and it's worth noting that in previous years the average was around 6. I'm not sure if the high numbers here are random variation, or players getting better, or some shift in how I'm evaluating plays (e.g. a change in my standards for what counts as being in space vs. in traffic). I see this as a good showing by everyone from Fournette through Cook (tempered by tiny sample sizes in some cases), and a poor showing by Green & Smallwood.
The draft-eligible guys who stood out the most in the short yardage stats (Elliott, Collins, Perkins, Linwood) don't especially stand out in this set of stats, though they're at least reasonably solid. The success of small-school backs (McGuire, Dixon, Hunt) in these numbers is interesting, though it's worth noting that there aren't any opponent adjustments here. There are opponent adjustments in my formulas for overall RB ranking and Hard to Tackle rating, though those are far from perfect.
* Percent of (non-red-zone) carries going for 20+ yards (with data from cfbstats)
* Number of 20+ yard receptions per 12 games (with data from cfbstats that took some more work to put together)
* Yards after contact in space, capped at 15 (based on my game charting)
20+ Yard Runs Per non-RZ Attempt
10.4% Dalvin Cook FSU (335 att) *
9.6% Nick Chubb Georgia (270 att) *
9.4% Kareem Hunt Toledo (308 att)
8.7% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (389 att) *
8.4% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (131 att)
7.7% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (311 att) *
7.6% Corey Clement Wisconsin (157 att)
6.8% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (351 att)
6.8% Leonard Fournette LSU (412 att) *
6.7% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (313 att)
6.4% Royce Freeman Oregon (420 att) *
6.1% Alex Collins Arkansas (425 att)
6.1% Aaron Green TCU (295 att)
6.0% Derrick Henry Alabama (434 att)
5.5% Wayne Gallman Clemson (363 att)
5.4% Shock Linwood Baylor (353 att)
5.4% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (459 att)
5.2% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (310 att)
4.9% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (164 att)
4.8% Paul Perkins UCLA (418 att)
4.6% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (194 att)
4.6% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (412 att)
4.3% Wendell Smallwood WVU (325 att)
3.8% Kelvin Taylor Florida (213 att)
3.1% Devontae Booker Utah (491 att)
This is where Cook shines. Unfortunatley the top of this list is dominated by non-draft-eligible players and backs who faced questionable competition. Also a nice showing from Prosise. Average is around 6%.
20+ Yards Receptions per 12 Games
7.00 Christian McCaffrey Stanford (24 g) *
6.24 Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (25 g)
5.74 Devontae Booker Utah (23 g)
5.28 Kenneth Dixon La Tech (25 g)
4.80 DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (25 g)
3.60 C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (10 g)
3.36 Leonard Fournette LSU (25 g) *
3.23 Paul Perkins UCLA (26 g)
2.88 Dalvin Cook FSU (25 g) *
2.57 Royce Freeman Oregon (28 g) *
2.53 Nick Chubb Georgia (19 g) *
2.31 Wendell Smallwood WVU (26 g)
1.85 Aaron Green TCU (26 g)
1.71 Derrick Henry Alabama (28 g)
1.44 Shock Linwood Baylor (25 g)
1.33 Corey Clement Wisconsin (18 g)
1.14 Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (21 g)
0.92 Jonathan Williams Arkansas (13 g)
0.92 Alex Collins Arkansas (26 g)
0.86 Kelvin Taylor Florida (14 g)
0.86 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (28 g)
0.46 Wayne Gallman Clemson (26 g)
0.46 Samaje Perine Oklahoma (26 g) *
0.00 Kareem Hunt Toledo (19 g)
0.00 Johnny Jefferson Baylor (22 g)
McCaffrey leads the way here - he also had a good number of long runs. The Louisiana boys (McGuire & Dixon) also showed well in both categories. Booker is near the top here, but was at the bottom in the running game. Some questions about how much Elliott will be able to do in the passing game given his lack of big plays there.
Space Capped Yards After Contact
10.00 Leonard Fournette LSU (18 att) *
9.20 Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (5 att)
7.93 DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (14 att)
7.53 Kareem Hunt Toledo (17 att)
7.45 Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (22 att)
7.33 Nick Chubb Georgia (35 att) *
7.32 Jonathan Williams Arkansas (22 att)
7.30 Alex Collins Arkansas (23 att)
7.27 Kenneth Dixon La Tech (48 att)
7.17 Paul Perkins UCLA (23 att)
6.96 Derrick Henry Alabama (48 att)
6.93 Dalvin Cook FSU (14 att) *
6.32 C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (31 att)
6.24 Devontae Booker Utah (29 att)
6.19 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (54 att)
6.13 Matt Breida Ga South (16 att)
5.44 Shock Linwood Baylor (16 att)
4.79 Aaron Green TCU (19 att)
3.33 Wendell Smallwood WVU (6 att)
Small sample sizes here, and it's worth noting that in previous years the average was around 6. I'm not sure if the high numbers here are random variation, or players getting better, or some shift in how I'm evaluating plays (e.g. a change in my standards for what counts as being in space vs. in traffic). I see this as a good showing by everyone from Fournette through Cook (tempered by tiny sample sizes in some cases), and a poor showing by Green & Smallwood.
The draft-eligible guys who stood out the most in the short yardage stats (Elliott, Collins, Perkins, Linwood) don't especially stand out in this set of stats, though they're at least reasonably solid. The success of small-school backs (McGuire, Dixon, Hunt) in these numbers is interesting, though it's worth noting that there aren't any opponent adjustments here. There are opponent adjustments in my formulas for overall RB ranking and Hard to Tackle rating, though those are far from perfect.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here are end-of-the-season QB production rankings (description here, stats spreadsheet here). These are based on adjusted yards per attempt (including rushing), first downs per non-RZ attempt, red zone TD rate, 3rd down conversion rate, and strength of schedule.
I think these stats make a decent filter for QBs - good production is nowhere close to a guarantee that a QB is a strong NFL prospect, but a lack of good production is a pretty reliable sign that a QB is not a strong NFL prospect. I'm fairly skeptical of QBs outside the top 8 or 10, and very skeptical of QBs outside the top 20.
Here is that top 20:
8.01 Brandon Allen Arkansas
7.03 Vernon Adams Jr. Oregon
6.92 Kevin Hogan Stanford
6.59 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma
6.07 Gunner Kiel Cincinnati
5.61 Jared Goff California
5.30 Trevone Boykin TCU
4.96 Brandon Doughty Western Ky
4.40 Matt Johnson BGSU
4.35 DeShone Kizer Notre Dame *
4.14 Taylor Lamb App St
4.05 Deshaun Watson Clemson *
3.99 Connor Cook Mich St
3.70 Mason Rudolph Okla St *
3.52 Nate Sudfeld Indiana
3.46 Dak Prescott Miss St
3.39 Marquise Williams N Carolina
3.35 Paxton Lynch Memphis
3.16 Cody Kessler USC
3.04 Zach Terrell W Mich
(* not draft eligible)
Other notable names: Christian Hackenberg comes in 79th with a -3.55 rating, and Cardale Jones would've come in 49th with a 0.04 rating if he had enough passing attempts to qualify.
Looking at the most touted prospects: Goff gets a thumbs up by this measure. Connor Cook gets a tentative thumbs up based on his 2014 (which would have been right behind Goff's 2015 on this list). Lynch and Prescott and are somewhat shaky/borderline. Hackenberg and Cardale Jones get a thumbs down. No opinion on North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, who went to a non-FBC school.
Brandon Allen looks like the most interesting potential sleeper. QB sleepers become much less enticing after the draft, though, since it's rare for a good NFL QB to be taken outside the first 45 picks (and very rare for one to be taken after the 3rd round).
Hopefully, some better QB stats will come out over the offseason (e.g., accuracy rates on throws to different parts of the field).
I think these stats make a decent filter for QBs - good production is nowhere close to a guarantee that a QB is a strong NFL prospect, but a lack of good production is a pretty reliable sign that a QB is not a strong NFL prospect. I'm fairly skeptical of QBs outside the top 8 or 10, and very skeptical of QBs outside the top 20.
Here is that top 20:
8.01 Brandon Allen Arkansas
7.03 Vernon Adams Jr. Oregon
6.92 Kevin Hogan Stanford
6.59 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma
6.07 Gunner Kiel Cincinnati
5.61 Jared Goff California
5.30 Trevone Boykin TCU
4.96 Brandon Doughty Western Ky
4.40 Matt Johnson BGSU
4.35 DeShone Kizer Notre Dame *
4.14 Taylor Lamb App St
4.05 Deshaun Watson Clemson *
3.99 Connor Cook Mich St
3.70 Mason Rudolph Okla St *
3.52 Nate Sudfeld Indiana
3.46 Dak Prescott Miss St
3.39 Marquise Williams N Carolina
3.35 Paxton Lynch Memphis
3.16 Cody Kessler USC
3.04 Zach Terrell W Mich
(* not draft eligible)
Other notable names: Christian Hackenberg comes in 79th with a -3.55 rating, and Cardale Jones would've come in 49th with a 0.04 rating if he had enough passing attempts to qualify.
Looking at the most touted prospects: Goff gets a thumbs up by this measure. Connor Cook gets a tentative thumbs up based on his 2014 (which would have been right behind Goff's 2015 on this list). Lynch and Prescott and are somewhat shaky/borderline. Hackenberg and Cardale Jones get a thumbs down. No opinion on North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, who went to a non-FBC school.
Brandon Allen looks like the most interesting potential sleeper. QB sleepers become much less enticing after the draft, though, since it's rare for a good NFL QB to be taken outside the first 45 picks (and very rare for one to be taken after the 3rd round).
Hopefully, some better QB stats will come out over the offseason (e.g., accuracy rates on throws to different parts of the field).
buddhacwru
Footballguy
Great posting. I appreciate all your hard work. Had you thought to include Special Teams returns for the WR/TE position? I saw some analysis on another site that if one had included collegiate special teams production Antonio Brown would have been considered an even better NFL/Fantasy prospect, even in non-return yardage Fantasy leagues. Likewise Tyler Lockett.
ZWK
Footballguy
Yep, one of the variables I look at for WRs is "other big plays" which counts special teams return TDs, rushing TDs, and long runs. It has been one of the most predictive stats of NFL success over the past several years - Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, and Jeremy Maclin all had a bunch of other big plays in college. I suspect that part of this is a real effect and part of it is a coincidence; going forward, other big plays will continue to be predictive of NFL success but not as strongly as it has been over the past several years.
Those numbers are still missing from my ratings for the current draft class, but I don't think that there's anyone in the current WR draft class who did much on special teams or as a runner so it won't affect things much when I add them in.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
.
ZWK
Footballguy
I've added other big plays for this year's draft class, and there was only one player who moved much because of it: Texas Tech's Jakeem Grant. Grant had 2 kickoff return TDs, 2 rushing TDs, and a 40-yard run (in addition to 90/1268/10 receiving). He is listed at 5'6", 170 lb., which would make him shorter than guys like Lockett, Hilton, T Austin, and D Jackson, so I guess he has an uphill battle to NFL relevance. He also never returned punts at Texas Tech, which could make it harder for him to start by carving out a role as a special teamer. Still seems worth keeping an eye on, especially if he runs fast at the combine.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here is the WR leaderboard.
My source for data on targets hasn't updated since November 28, so stats like yards per target are a bit out of date, but that shouldn't make a huge difference.
First, the top 20 receivers in terms of 2015 production (this is on a scale where 0 is roughly an average college WR1 on the 128 FBS teams, 4 is around the minimum for a serious NFL prospect, and 9 is an elite level for an NFL prospect):
Production Name School Age Games
15.36 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 22.6 (8 g)
11.06 Will Fuller Notre Dame 22.4 (13 g)
8.96 Josh Doctson TCU 23.2 (11 g)
7.63 Corey Coleman Baylor 22.2 (12 g)
7.45 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC 20.0 (14 g) *
6.66 Roger Lewis BGSU 22.8 (14 g)
6.27 Taywan Taylor Western Ky 21.5 (14 g)
6.20 Keevan Lucas Tulsa 21.4 (4 g)
5.42 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 23.8 (13 g)
4.96 Mike Thomas USM 22.0 (13 g)
4.58 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 23.5 (13 g)
4.52 Shelton Gibson WVU 22.5 (13 g)
4.22 Bryce Treggs California 22.3 (13 g)
4.14 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 21.5 (12 g)
3.97 Devin Lucien Ariz St 23.2 (13 g)
3.47 Isaiah Ford Va Tech 20.6 (13 g) *
3.45 Kenny Golladay N Illinois (14 g)
3.35 Daniel Braverman W Mich 22.9 (13 g)
3.27 Rodney Adams S Florida 22.0 (13 g)
3.16 Chris Godwin Penn State 20.5 (13 g) *
(* not draft eligible).
Stats are pro-rated for players who missed games, so good production in a small number of games increases uncertainty.
Next, the top 21 overall WR prospects (which is based on production this year, production in previous years, other stats like drop rate & YAC, size, speed, and age):
Rtg Name School Age
8.22 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 22.6
7.58 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC 20.0 *
6.39 Corey Coleman Baylor 22.2
4.73 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh 22.8
4.68 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 21.5
4.63 Corey Davis W Mich 21.6
4.50 Will Fuller Notre Dame 22.4
4.21 Keevan Lucas Tulsa 21.4
4.09 Rashard Higgins CSU 21.9
3.76 Josh Doctson TCU 23.2
3.60 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 23.5
3.42 Roger Lewis BGSU 22.8
3.29 Taywan Taylor Western Ky 21.5
1.75 Chris Godwin Penn State 20.5 *
0.37 Shelton Gibson WVU 22.5
-0.06 Mike Thomas USM 22.0
-0.35 Isaiah Ford Va Tech 20.6 *
-0.77 Bryce Treggs California 22.3
-1.16 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M 21.5
-1.40 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 23.8
-1.88 Kenny Golladay N Illinois
Carroo and Coleman are the only two draft-eligible WRs whose overall rating is in the same neighborhood as most of the early round prospects from the past couple years. Will Fuller & Josh Doctson get docked for being skinny (like Paul Richardson & Justin Hunter before them); Fuller also dropped a lot of passes (again like Hunter) and Doctson is pretty old. Laquon Treadwell and Ohio State's Michael Thomas don't even make either of these lists.
Later this week I'll post some comparisons of WRs on some of the specific stats that go into my production rating which will make it clearer why the production ranking looks like this. Or you could just look at my WR stats spreadsheet and see for yourself.
My source for data on targets hasn't updated since November 28, so stats like yards per target are a bit out of date, but that shouldn't make a huge difference.
First, the top 20 receivers in terms of 2015 production (this is on a scale where 0 is roughly an average college WR1 on the 128 FBS teams, 4 is around the minimum for a serious NFL prospect, and 9 is an elite level for an NFL prospect):
Production Name School Age Games
15.36 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 22.6 (8 g)
11.06 Will Fuller Notre Dame 22.4 (13 g)
8.96 Josh Doctson TCU 23.2 (11 g)
7.63 Corey Coleman Baylor 22.2 (12 g)
7.45 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC 20.0 (14 g) *
6.66 Roger Lewis BGSU 22.8 (14 g)
6.27 Taywan Taylor Western Ky 21.5 (14 g)
6.20 Keevan Lucas Tulsa 21.4 (4 g)
5.42 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 23.8 (13 g)
4.96 Mike Thomas USM 22.0 (13 g)
4.58 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 23.5 (13 g)
4.52 Shelton Gibson WVU 22.5 (13 g)
4.22 Bryce Treggs California 22.3 (13 g)
4.14 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 21.5 (12 g)
3.97 Devin Lucien Ariz St 23.2 (13 g)
3.47 Isaiah Ford Va Tech 20.6 (13 g) *
3.45 Kenny Golladay N Illinois (14 g)
3.35 Daniel Braverman W Mich 22.9 (13 g)
3.27 Rodney Adams S Florida 22.0 (13 g)
3.16 Chris Godwin Penn State 20.5 (13 g) *
(* not draft eligible).
Stats are pro-rated for players who missed games, so good production in a small number of games increases uncertainty.
Next, the top 21 overall WR prospects (which is based on production this year, production in previous years, other stats like drop rate & YAC, size, speed, and age):
Rtg Name School Age
8.22 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 22.6
7.58 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC 20.0 *
6.39 Corey Coleman Baylor 22.2
4.73 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh 22.8
4.68 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 21.5
4.63 Corey Davis W Mich 21.6
4.50 Will Fuller Notre Dame 22.4
4.21 Keevan Lucas Tulsa 21.4
4.09 Rashard Higgins CSU 21.9
3.76 Josh Doctson TCU 23.2
3.60 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 23.5
3.42 Roger Lewis BGSU 22.8
3.29 Taywan Taylor Western Ky 21.5
1.75 Chris Godwin Penn State 20.5 *
0.37 Shelton Gibson WVU 22.5
-0.06 Mike Thomas USM 22.0
-0.35 Isaiah Ford Va Tech 20.6 *
-0.77 Bryce Treggs California 22.3
-1.16 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M 21.5
-1.40 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 23.8
-1.88 Kenny Golladay N Illinois
Carroo and Coleman are the only two draft-eligible WRs whose overall rating is in the same neighborhood as most of the early round prospects from the past couple years. Will Fuller & Josh Doctson get docked for being skinny (like Paul Richardson & Justin Hunter before them); Fuller also dropped a lot of passes (again like Hunter) and Doctson is pretty old. Laquon Treadwell and Ohio State's Michael Thomas don't even make either of these lists.
Later this week I'll post some comparisons of WRs on some of the specific stats that go into my production rating which will make it clearer why the production ranking looks like this. Or you could just look at my WR stats spreadsheet and see for yourself.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Which, when considering the guy is being mocked as a top 5 pick, should give a little pause as to the utility of the numbers you're using. I know I already mentioned this earlier in the thread, and I know that it remains to be seen what actually happens both in terms of his draft stock and his eventual production, and I know that you shouldn't try to fit your work to get "expected" results, but this is one of those that seems like a complete miss and wouldn't allow me to have much confidence in the rest of the results, tbh.
Depends on the history. If ZWK's numbers have a decent track record at predicting overdrafted bust WRs then this becomes a red flag for Treadwell.
If ZWK's numbers aren't there yet, then Treadwell may become part of the basis for revising the algorithm a few years down the road based on his success.
I wasn't tracking these projections till this season...how did ZWK do with guys like Cordarelle Patterson or Justin Hunter or Kenny Britt?
ZWK
Footballguy
I was just looking at some things related to this.
I have updated the list in the Elite NFL WRs tab of my spreadsheet to include the 2015 NFL season. Now there are 21 receivers who have entered the NFL since 2009 who have had successful fantasy careers (meaning 100+ career VBD). I don't have college receiving stats for 2 of them (Victor Cruz at UMass and Julian Edelman who was QB at Kent State), which leaves a sample of 19 WRs. 14 out of those 19 had an overall rating above 4.0 by my formula; 5 were below 4.0. (4.0 is a relatively high cutoff - from the 2009-2015 drafts there have been about 10 WRs per year above that level. They are listed in the Top Rated tab of the spreadsheet.)
5 is a small number of players to look at, so I also made a list of 15 other good NFL fantasy receivers who entered the NFL since 2009: 13 who seem likely to be on their way to successful fantasy careers (based on what they've done in the NFL so far) and 2 who seemed like they were on their way to successful fantasy careers before their careers were derailed by injuries or off-the-field issues. I've created an Emerging NFL WRs tab in the spreadsheet for them. I'm missing college stats on John Brown, which leaves 14 promising NFL players. 9 of those 14 had an overall rating above 4.0 by my formula.
That gives us a list 33 successfulish NFL fantasy WRs (who I have college stats for), and I missed on 10 of them (by rating them below a 4.0 by my formula). That seems like a large enough group to start looking for patterns, so here are those 10 (ordered from lowest score to highest):
Rating Player
-14.12 Doug Baldwin
-11.77 Josh Gordon
-10.99 Antonio Brown
-8.16 Martavis Bryant
-5.40 Jarvis Landry
-4.85 Mike Wallace
-2.37 Kelvin Benjamin
-2.28 Allen Hurns
-0.29 Emmanuel Sanders
1.03 Randall Cobb
(The next-lowest score from successful WRs is TY Hilton's 4.96, which right now would be good enough for third in the 2016 draft class.)
The first thing that jumps out at me from this list is that I'm not the only one who missed on most of these players - only 4 out of the 10 went in the first 2 rounds of the draft. In terms of size there is a lot of variety: 3 of the guys on this list are big tall receivers (Benjamin, Bryant, Gordon), but many of them are slot receivers (Cobb, Sanders, Landry, Baldwin). Some of these guys have been catching passes in the NFL from elite quarterbacks - it seems likely that Cobb, Sanders, and Baldwin wouldn't have performed well enough in the NFL to make this list without that QB help. Some of these guys left school early - it's interesting that the 3 big guys (Benjamin, Bryant, and Gordon) all left as soon as they were eligible to. It's possible that some prototypical WRs are able to demonstrate things on tape before their raw production looks that great and then enter the draft early because of it - perhaps they would have put up big receiving numbers if they'd stuck around in college longer (and then my formula would have spotted their talent), but they didn't need to so they left early (though Bryant was only a 4th rounder, and it was off-the-field issues that drove Gordon out early).
One other thing that was striking to me when I looked at these guys in the spreadsheet - here they are ranked by yards per target:
YPT Player
12.74 Martavis Bryant
11.62 Kelvin Benjamin
11.47 Jarvis Landry
11.17 Allen Hurns
10.20 Doug Baldwin
10.20 Josh Gordon
10.18 Mike Wallace
9.39 Emmanuel Sanders
8.44 Antonio Brown
8.39 Randall Cobb
Anything above 11.0 YPT is really good (this year, only 10 WRs reached that level). Even above 10.0 is good; average yards per target is close to Sanders's 9.39. Seven of these 10 guys topped 10.0 YPT, and 4 topped 11 YPT. They were held down in my formula mostly because they didn't attract a ton of targets (though Landry was hurt more by his horrible athleticism numbers at the combine).
It looks like I should either be putting more weight in my formula on yards per target, or I should be more willing to doubt my formula and be more optimistic about players who have good yards per target but a mediocre overall rating by my formula.
Those are the players who I missed on - the ones who had low overall ratings but succeeded (or seem likely to succeed) in the NFL. It's also worth looking at the low-rated players who didn't succeed, because our goal is to be able to distinguish those two groups in advance. Here is a complete list of every receiver rated below 4.0 who was drafted in the first 2 rounds since 2009, sorted by draft order:
Rating Player
-21.22 Darrius Heyward-Bey
0.93 Michael Floyd
-2.37 Kelvin Benjamin
-9.48 Cordarrelle Patterson
-11.77 Josh Gordon
-9.37 Arrelious Benn
-0.55 Dorial Green-Beckham
-2.11 Devin Funchess
2.23 Robert Woods
2.01 Titus Young
3.86 Paul Richardson
-14.75 Mohamed Massaquoi
-21.77 Greg Little
-9.20 Aaron Dobson
-5.40 Jarvis Landry
1.03 Randall Cobb
If we move the cutoff up to 4.95 (right below TY Hilton's score), then the list of misses doesn't grow at all and 4 more early rounders get added to this list: Nelson Agholor, Justin Hunter, Ryan Broyles, and Rueben Randle.
It's too soon to tell on some of these guys, but that's not a great group of receivers on the whole.
Looking at the indicators that I picked out earlier for the misses: Green-Beckham and Funchess have the huge size thing going for them (Floyd & Little are pretty big too). In the 10.0+ YPT club, Benjamin, Landry, and Gordon are joined by Titus Young (12.27) and Mohamed Massaquoi (10.01). I'm not sure which of these guys left school early and I don't feel like looking them all up (I am pretty sure that Funchess left as soon as he could).
Looking at the two receivers in this year's draft class who get a low rating from my formula but seem likely to get drafted early: Laquon Treadwell and Michael Thomas. Both have good size; we'll see if they qualify as huge (Thomas has a better chance at it). Treadwell is leaving school as soon as he's eligible; Thomas is leaving a year early but also a year later than he could have. Neither one is anywhere close to the 10.0 YPT club (Treadwell is at 8.39, Thomas at 7.90). Treadwell has the excuse for his non-overwhelming production that he was coming back from an injury this year and therefore possibly playing at less than 100%. On the whole, Treadwell seems more likely to succeed in the NFL and be added to my misses list, but neither of them seems promising enough for me to rate them near where other people will be taking them.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here is this year's 10.0 yards per target club (as of Nov. 28):
13.83 Leonte Carroo Rutgers
13.50 Mack Hollins N Carolina
12.57 Bryce Treggs California
12.23 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
11.68 Cody Thompson Toledo *
11.57 Will Fuller Notre Dame
11.44 Josh Doctson TCU
11.40 Carlos Henderson La Tech
11.35 Jay Lee Baylor
11.32 Chris Moore Cincinnati
11.07 Kermit Whitfield FSU
10.93 Roger Lewis BGSU
10.88 Mike Thomas USM
10.75 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
10.66 Devin Lucien Ariz St
10.62 Shelton Gibson WVU
10.54 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma
10.32 Penny Hart Georgia St *
10.30 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC *
10.28 Brandon Reilly Nebraska
10.21 Marcell Ateman Okla St
10.18 Drew Morgan Arkansas
10.10 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech
10.07 Rodney Adams S Florida
(* not draft eligible)
Mack Hollins is also listed at 6'3". He could be an interesting prospect.
13.83 Leonte Carroo Rutgers
13.50 Mack Hollins N Carolina
12.57 Bryce Treggs California
12.23 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
11.68 Cody Thompson Toledo *
11.57 Will Fuller Notre Dame
11.44 Josh Doctson TCU
11.40 Carlos Henderson La Tech
11.35 Jay Lee Baylor
11.32 Chris Moore Cincinnati
11.07 Kermit Whitfield FSU
10.93 Roger Lewis BGSU
10.88 Mike Thomas USM
10.75 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
10.66 Devin Lucien Ariz St
10.62 Shelton Gibson WVU
10.54 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma
10.32 Penny Hart Georgia St *
10.30 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC *
10.28 Brandon Reilly Nebraska
10.21 Marcell Ateman Okla St
10.18 Drew Morgan Arkansas
10.10 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech
10.07 Rodney Adams S Florida
(* not draft eligible)
Mack Hollins is also listed at 6'3". He could be an interesting prospect.
buddhacwru
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
You should check out the flip side: what receivers got a high rating from your formula that didn't get drafted highly? (So, you were more bullish on them than the NFL).
Looking at the Top Rated tab, none of the players drafted at 100+ has been an NFL success. The first wins are:
TY Hilton (rated 4.96, drafted #92)
Eric Decker (rated 5.10, drafted #87)
Keenan Allen (rated 6.10, drafted #77)
That's everyone who wasn't drafted in the first two rounds (n=27). So, I would be careful making any assumptions about WRs who do well on this scale but not in the estimation of NFL teams.
Looking at the Top Rated tab, none of the players drafted at 100+ has been an NFL success. The first wins are:
TY Hilton (rated 4.96, drafted #92)
Eric Decker (rated 5.10, drafted #87)
Keenan Allen (rated 6.10, drafted #77)
That's everyone who wasn't drafted in the first two rounds (n=27). So, I would be careful making any assumptions about WRs who do well on this scale but not in the estimation of NFL teams.
ZWK
Footballguy
It's definitely true that draft order is a strong predictor of NFL success, and that my ratings are no substitute for that.
It is also worth noting that successful NFL WRs outside the first 2 rounds are pretty rare, and my ratings do seem to help somewhat for picking them out from their large group of similarly-drafted peers. The By Draft Pick tab is an easy way to compare receivers with similar draft position who got different ratings by my formula, though it only goes through the third round.
Focusing on the third round, there were 37 WRs drafted in the 3rd round from 2009-2015. 11 rated above 4.0 by my formula, 22 rated below 4.0 by my formula, and 4 didn't get a rating because they went to a small school. 5 of those 37 have been successful NFL fantasy receivers or seem to be heading in that direction - 3 of the 11 who rated above 4.0 (Hilton, Decker, Allen), 1 of the 22 who rated below 4.0 (Mike Wallace), and 1 of the 4 small school WRs (John Brown).
In rounds 4-7 the formula hasn't done as well, but successes have also been a lot rarer. Only 13 of the 130 WRs drafted in rounds 4-7 have rated above 4.0 by my formula. Only 3 of the 130 WRs have been successful in the NFL (or seem to be heading that way): 2 of the 100ish who rated below 4.0 (Antonio Brown & Martavis Bryant) and 1 who didn't get a rating because he was a college QB (Julian Edelman).
I don't know of a good way to count how many total UDFAs there are, but my formula has only rated 10 of them above 4.0 and there have been only 3 undrafted NFL successes (or players who seem to be heading that way): 2 who rated below 4.0 (Doug Baldwin & Allen Hurns) and 1 small school WR who didn't get a rating (Victor Cruz).
Here are a few list of names to give a sense of these comparisons.
First, the 11 third rounders that were above a 4.0 overall rating (sorted from highest overall rating to lowest):
Sammie Coates
Donte Moncrief
Terrance Williams
Stedman Bailey
Leonard Hankerson
Keenan Allen
Chris Givens
Damian Williams
Tyler Lockett
Eric Decker
T.Y. Hilton
Next, the 11 third rounders that my formula liked the least (sorted from lowest overall rating to highest):
Marquise Goodwin
Derrick Williams
Mohamed Sanu
Taylor Price
Austin Pettis
Jerrel Jernigan
Deon Butler
DeVier Posey
Patrick Turner
Brandon LaFell
T.J. Graham
Here are the 13 rd 4-7 WRs that my formula has rated above 4.0 (sorted from highest rated to lowest):
Aldrick Robinson
Marvin McNutt, Jr.
Marquess Wilson
Ryan Swope
Greg Salas
Marko Mitchell
Jarett Dillard
Denarius Moore
Marcus Easley
Jarius Wright
Rishard Matthews
B.J. Cunningham
Stefon Diggs
And here are the 10 UDFA WRs that my formula has liked (sorted from highest rated to lowest)
Danario Alexander
Jermaine Kearse
Brennan Marion
Gerell Robinson
Dwight Jones
Austin Hill
John Harris
Devante Davis
Titus Davis
Albert Wilson
There are a few fantasy-relevant WRs on each of these last 2 lists, which I think makes them somewhat better than is typical for WRs in that part of the draft (or non-draft), but no major hits yet.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
This is some amazing stuff. Still trying to wrap my head around some of it but great info. Thanks for sharing it.
ZWK
Footballguy
Few things are more fun than giant lists. Here are some comparisons of this year's top prospects and the first round WRs from the past two drafts, picking out a few of the stats from my WR spreadsheet that seem to be most predictive of NFL success.
There are 21 WRs in each list, the 11 first rounders from 2014-15 and 10 prospects from this draft class who I've put in bold (Laquon Treadwell, Michael Thomas, Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman, Leonte Carroo, Will Fuller, Tyler Boyd, Pharoh Cooper, De'Runnya Wilson, and Aaaron Burbridge). I'm using Boyd's 2014 stats, since he had much better numbers that year. Coleman & P Cooper were about as good in 2014 as in 2015, but with somewhat different statistical profiles, so I've included their 2014 stats in italics. Stats are pro-rated for players who missed games, except for Carroo's 8-game 2015 and DeVante Parker's 6-game 2014 where I used team stats only for the games that they played.
Yards Per Team Passing Attempt
4.32 DeVante Parker 2014
4.09 Tyler Boyd 2014
3.83 Amari Cooper 2014
3.80 Corey Coleman 2015
3.69 Leonte Carroo 2015
3.53 Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
3.28 Will Fuller 2015
3.03 Josh Doctson 2015
2.98 Sammy Watkins 2013
2.86 Aaron Burbridge 2015
2.85 Nelson Agholor 2014
2.85 Mike Evans 2013
2.80 Corey Coleman 2014
2.77 Brandin Cooks 2013
2.77 Pharoh Cooper 2015
2.71 Kevin White 2014
2.51 Breshad Perriman 2014
2.43 Pharoh Cooper 2014
2.40 Michael Thomas 2015
2.37 Laquon Treadwell 2015
2.29 Kelvin Benjamin 2013
2.23 Phillip Dorsett 2014
(2.20 2014 average)
1.84 De'Runnya Wilson 2015
Yards Per Target
14.08 Mike Evans 2013
13.83 Leonte Carroo 2015
12.91 Phillip Dorsett 2014
12.89 Corey Coleman 2014
12.80 Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
12.76 DeVante Parker 2014
11.62 Kelvin Benjamin 2013
11.57 Will Fuller 2015
11.44 Josh Doctson 2015
11.18 Sammy Watkins 2013
11.05 Tyler Boyd 2014
11.03 Pharoh Cooper 2014
10.77 Amari Cooper 2014
10.51 Breshad Perriman 2014
10.30 Brandin Cooks 2013
9.88 Corey Coleman 2015
9.78 Nelson Agholor 2014
9.35 De'Runnya Wilson 2015
(9.30 2014 average)
9.15 Kevin White 2014
8.39 Laquon Treadwell 2015
8.33 Pharoh Cooper 2015
8.06 Aaron Burbridge 2015
7.90 Michael Thomas 2015
Percent of Team's Passing TDs
59% Leonte Carroo 2015
56% Will Fuller 2015
50% DeVante Parker 2014
50% Amari Cooper 2014
49% Corey Coleman 2015
47% Tyler Boyd 2014
47% Pharoh Cooper 2015
47% Michael Thomas 2015
42% Josh Doctson 2015
42% Brandin Cooks 2013
39% Breshad Perriman 2014
38% Phillip Dorsett 2014
38% Corey Coleman 2014
38% Kevin White 2014
36% Kelvin Benjamin 2013
35% Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
32% Laquon Treadwell 2015
32% Pharoh Cooper 2014
(32% 2014 average)
31% Sammy Watkins 2013
31% Nelson Agholor 2014
30% Mike Evans 2013
30% De'Runnya Wilson 2015
27% Aaron Burbridge 2015
25+ Yard Receptions Per Game
2.00 DeVante Parker 2014
1.85 Mike Evans 2013
1.80 Corey Coleman 2014
1.69 Brandin Cooks 2013
1.67 Corey Coleman 2015
1.55 Josh Doctson 2015
1.50 Leonte Carroo 2015
1.38 Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
1.36 Aaron Burbridge 2015
1.31 Will Fuller 2015
1.31 Sammy Watkins 2013
1.15 Kevin White 2014
1.08 Phillip Dorsett 2014
1.07 Amari Cooper 2014
1.00 Breshad Perriman 2014
1.00 Pharoh Cooper 2014
0.93 Kelvin Benjamin 2013
0.92 Tyler Boyd 2014
0.92 Pharoh Cooper 2015
0.92 Laquon Treadwell 2015
0.85 De'Runnya Wilson 2015
(0.81 2014 average)
0.69 Nelson Agholor 2014
0.46 Michael Thomas 2015
From this year's draft class, a few names tend to show up near the top of these lists: Coleman, Carroo, Doctson, Fuller. And a few names tend to show up near the bottom: Treadwell, Wilson, Thomas, Burbridge. (Though it's worth looking at the numbers in addition to the ranking, e.g. with Percent of Team's Passing TDs even the last guy on the list is close to the pack, with 25+ Yard Receptions Per Game the last 2 guys on the list are well behind the pack, and with Yards Per Target the last 4 all well behind the pack.)
There are 21 WRs in each list, the 11 first rounders from 2014-15 and 10 prospects from this draft class who I've put in bold (Laquon Treadwell, Michael Thomas, Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman, Leonte Carroo, Will Fuller, Tyler Boyd, Pharoh Cooper, De'Runnya Wilson, and Aaaron Burbridge). I'm using Boyd's 2014 stats, since he had much better numbers that year. Coleman & P Cooper were about as good in 2014 as in 2015, but with somewhat different statistical profiles, so I've included their 2014 stats in italics. Stats are pro-rated for players who missed games, except for Carroo's 8-game 2015 and DeVante Parker's 6-game 2014 where I used team stats only for the games that they played.
Yards Per Team Passing Attempt
4.32 DeVante Parker 2014
4.09 Tyler Boyd 2014
3.83 Amari Cooper 2014
3.80 Corey Coleman 2015
3.69 Leonte Carroo 2015
3.53 Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
3.28 Will Fuller 2015
3.03 Josh Doctson 2015
2.98 Sammy Watkins 2013
2.86 Aaron Burbridge 2015
2.85 Nelson Agholor 2014
2.85 Mike Evans 2013
2.80 Corey Coleman 2014
2.77 Brandin Cooks 2013
2.77 Pharoh Cooper 2015
2.71 Kevin White 2014
2.51 Breshad Perriman 2014
2.43 Pharoh Cooper 2014
2.40 Michael Thomas 2015
2.37 Laquon Treadwell 2015
2.29 Kelvin Benjamin 2013
2.23 Phillip Dorsett 2014
(2.20 2014 average)
1.84 De'Runnya Wilson 2015
Yards Per Target
14.08 Mike Evans 2013
13.83 Leonte Carroo 2015
12.91 Phillip Dorsett 2014
12.89 Corey Coleman 2014
12.80 Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
12.76 DeVante Parker 2014
11.62 Kelvin Benjamin 2013
11.57 Will Fuller 2015
11.44 Josh Doctson 2015
11.18 Sammy Watkins 2013
11.05 Tyler Boyd 2014
11.03 Pharoh Cooper 2014
10.77 Amari Cooper 2014
10.51 Breshad Perriman 2014
10.30 Brandin Cooks 2013
9.88 Corey Coleman 2015
9.78 Nelson Agholor 2014
9.35 De'Runnya Wilson 2015
(9.30 2014 average)
9.15 Kevin White 2014
8.39 Laquon Treadwell 2015
8.33 Pharoh Cooper 2015
8.06 Aaron Burbridge 2015
7.90 Michael Thomas 2015
Percent of Team's Passing TDs
59% Leonte Carroo 2015
56% Will Fuller 2015
50% DeVante Parker 2014
50% Amari Cooper 2014
49% Corey Coleman 2015
47% Tyler Boyd 2014
47% Pharoh Cooper 2015
47% Michael Thomas 2015
42% Josh Doctson 2015
42% Brandin Cooks 2013
39% Breshad Perriman 2014
38% Phillip Dorsett 2014
38% Corey Coleman 2014
38% Kevin White 2014
36% Kelvin Benjamin 2013
35% Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
32% Laquon Treadwell 2015
32% Pharoh Cooper 2014
(32% 2014 average)
31% Sammy Watkins 2013
31% Nelson Agholor 2014
30% Mike Evans 2013
30% De'Runnya Wilson 2015
27% Aaron Burbridge 2015
25+ Yard Receptions Per Game
2.00 DeVante Parker 2014
1.85 Mike Evans 2013
1.80 Corey Coleman 2014
1.69 Brandin Cooks 2013
1.67 Corey Coleman 2015
1.55 Josh Doctson 2015
1.50 Leonte Carroo 2015
1.38 Odell Beckham Jr. 2013
1.36 Aaron Burbridge 2015
1.31 Will Fuller 2015
1.31 Sammy Watkins 2013
1.15 Kevin White 2014
1.08 Phillip Dorsett 2014
1.07 Amari Cooper 2014
1.00 Breshad Perriman 2014
1.00 Pharoh Cooper 2014
0.93 Kelvin Benjamin 2013
0.92 Tyler Boyd 2014
0.92 Pharoh Cooper 2015
0.92 Laquon Treadwell 2015
0.85 De'Runnya Wilson 2015
(0.81 2014 average)
0.69 Nelson Agholor 2014
0.46 Michael Thomas 2015
From this year's draft class, a few names tend to show up near the top of these lists: Coleman, Carroo, Doctson, Fuller. And a few names tend to show up near the bottom: Treadwell, Wilson, Thomas, Burbridge. (Though it's worth looking at the numbers in addition to the ranking, e.g. with Percent of Team's Passing TDs even the last guy on the list is close to the pack, with 25+ Yard Receptions Per Game the last 2 guys on the list are well behind the pack, and with Yards Per Target the last 4 all well behind the pack.)
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Caroo is the name that keeps jumping out to me. And not just because it's Caroo.
The name that's completely missing, and I'm wondering why, is Sterling Shepard.
The name that's completely missing, and I'm wondering why, is Sterling Shepard.
Last edited by a moderator:
anakin
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Shepard is the next guy I would've included if I wanted my giant lists to be even longer. Here are his stats, along with 11 other guys. I've used Shepard's & Higgins's 2014, since they were better than their 2015s. The Mike Thomas on these lists is from USM.anakin said:
Yards Per Team Passing Attempt
4.24 Rashard Higgins 2014
3.23 Keyarris Garrett 2015
2.82 Mike Thomas 2015
2.79 Kenny Golladay 2015
2.72 Sterling Shepard 2014
2.65 Taywan Taylor 2015
2.60 Roger Lewis 2015
(2.20 2014 average)
2.07 Shelton Gibson 2015
2.05 Jakeem Grant 2015
2.02 Devin Lucien 2015
1.82 Mack Hollins 2015
1.20 Kenny Lawler 2015
Yards Per Target
13.55 Rashard Higgins
13.50 Mack Hollins
12.27 Sterling Shepard
12.23 Taywan Taylor
10.93 Roger Lewis
10.88 Mike Thomas
10.66 Devin Lucien
10.62 Shelton Gibson
10.10 Jakeem Grant
(9.30 2014 average)
9.00 Keyarris Garrett
8.97 Kenny Golladay
7.17 Kenny Lawler
Percent of Team's Passing TDs
54% Rashard Higgins 2014
45% Kenny Golladay 2015
38% Mike Thomas 2015
35% Shelton Gibson 2015
34% Taywan Taylor 2015
34% Roger Lewis 2015
32% Sterling Shepard 2014
32% Keyarris Garrett 2015
(32% 2014 average)
30% Kenny Lawler 2015
27% Devin Lucien 2015
26% Mack Hollins 2015
26% Jakeem Grant 2015
25+ Yard Receptions Per Game
2.00 Rashard Higgins 2014
1.77 Keyarris Garrett 2015
1.69 Mike Thomas 2015
1.43 Taywan Taylor 2015
1.29 Roger Lewis 2015
1.08 Shelton Gibson 2015
1.08 Sterling Shepard 2014
1.00 Jakeem Grant 2015
0.93 Mack Hollins 2015
0.92 Devin Lucien 2015
0.86 Kenny Golladay 2015
(0.81 2014 average)
0.23 Kenny Lawler 2015
Higgins dominates, similar to Carroo & Parker. Shepard, Taylor, Lewis, and Thomas do pretty well. Lawler is the only guy who is below average on every stat.
ZWK
Footballguy
I mostly focus on offensive players, but here's a quick look at pass rushers to see who has been the most disruptive at getting sacks & tackles for a loss. Rating is based on sacks and tackles for a loss, with extra weight given to games against Power 5 opponents. It includes both 2014 & 2015 stats, with more weight on the player's best season.
Here are the top 20:
Rtg Name Team Yr Pos 2015RTG 2014RTG
6.5 Derek Barnett Tennessee SO DL 2.3 9.3 *
6.5 Emmanuel Ogbah Okla St JR DL 6.0 6.8
6.3 Devonte Fields Louisville JR LB 9.0 -4.5
6.3 Antonio Longino Ariz St SR LB 9.0 -4.5
5.7 Shaq Lawson Clemson JR DL 7.7 -2.4
5.6 Joey Bosa Ohio State JR DL 1.0 8.7
5.1 Myles Garrett Texas A&M SO DL 6.6 -0.8 *
5.0 Carl Nassib Penn State SR DL 7.3 -4.5
4.8 Ejuan Price Pittsburgh SR DL 7.1 -4.5
4.7 Eric Striker Oklahoma SR LB 3.8 5.2
4.5 Kevin Dodd Clemson JR DL 6.7 -4.5
4.2 DeMarcus Walker FSU JR DL 6.4 -4.5
3.8 Jatavis Brown Akron SR LB 5.1 -1.5
3.7 Yannick Ngakoue Maryland JR DL 5.0 -1.4
3.0 DeForest Buckner Oregon SR DL 4.0 -1.3
2.9 Mike Rose NC State SR DL 3.6 0.4
2.8 Shawn Oakman Baylor SR DL -3.6 7.0
2.6 Marquis Haynes Miss SO DL 3.9 -2.7 *
2.4 Jonathan Allen Alabama JR DL 3.9 -3.4
2.3 Joe Schobert Wisconsin SR LB 3.1 -0.8
(* not draft eligible)
Here are the top 20:
Rtg Name Team Yr Pos 2015RTG 2014RTG
6.5 Derek Barnett Tennessee SO DL 2.3 9.3 *
6.5 Emmanuel Ogbah Okla St JR DL 6.0 6.8
6.3 Devonte Fields Louisville JR LB 9.0 -4.5
6.3 Antonio Longino Ariz St SR LB 9.0 -4.5
5.7 Shaq Lawson Clemson JR DL 7.7 -2.4
5.6 Joey Bosa Ohio State JR DL 1.0 8.7
5.1 Myles Garrett Texas A&M SO DL 6.6 -0.8 *
5.0 Carl Nassib Penn State SR DL 7.3 -4.5
4.8 Ejuan Price Pittsburgh SR DL 7.1 -4.5
4.7 Eric Striker Oklahoma SR LB 3.8 5.2
4.5 Kevin Dodd Clemson JR DL 6.7 -4.5
4.2 DeMarcus Walker FSU JR DL 6.4 -4.5
3.8 Jatavis Brown Akron SR LB 5.1 -1.5
3.7 Yannick Ngakoue Maryland JR DL 5.0 -1.4
3.0 DeForest Buckner Oregon SR DL 4.0 -1.3
2.9 Mike Rose NC State SR DL 3.6 0.4
2.8 Shawn Oakman Baylor SR DL -3.6 7.0
2.6 Marquis Haynes Miss SO DL 3.9 -2.7 *
2.4 Jonathan Allen Alabama JR DL 3.9 -3.4
2.3 Joe Schobert Wisconsin SR LB 3.1 -0.8
(* not draft eligible)
ZWK
Footballguy
I don't notice any problems. If it looks like there's a bug, could you PM me with specifics on what's wrong?
ZWK
Footballguy
Going by this list, apparently RBs Kareem Hunt, Shock Linwood, Elijah McGuire, Wayne Gallman, and Johnny Jefferson have decided to return to school, which leaves the top of the RB rankings for this draft class looking like this by my numbers:
Ezekiel Elliott
Alex Collins
Derrick Henry
Kenneth Dixon
Paul Perkins
Jordan Howard
DeAndre Washington
C.J. Prosise
Devontae Booker
Wendell Smallwood
Matt Breida
At WR, it looks like Corey Davis, Keevan Lucas, Taywan Taylor, Shelton Gibson, Josh Reynolds, Kenny Golladay, and Mack Hollins are returning to school. That leaves this leaderboard by my numbers:
Rtg Name School Age
8.22 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 22.6
6.39 Corey Coleman Baylor 22.2
4.73 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh 22.8
4.68 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 21.5
4.50 Will Fuller Notre Dame 22.4
4.09 Rashard Higgins CSU 21.9
3.76 Josh Doctson TCU 23.2
3.60 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 23.5
3.42 Roger Lewis BGSU 22.8
-0.06 Mike Thomas USM 22.0
-0.77 Bryce Treggs California 22.3
-1.40 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 23.8
Along with Laquon Treadwell & Michael Thomas.
Ezekiel Elliott
Alex Collins
Derrick Henry
Kenneth Dixon
Paul Perkins
Jordan Howard
DeAndre Washington
C.J. Prosise
Devontae Booker
Wendell Smallwood
Matt Breida
At WR, it looks like Corey Davis, Keevan Lucas, Taywan Taylor, Shelton Gibson, Josh Reynolds, Kenny Golladay, and Mack Hollins are returning to school. That leaves this leaderboard by my numbers:
Rtg Name School Age
8.22 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 22.6
6.39 Corey Coleman Baylor 22.2
4.73 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh 22.8
4.68 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 21.5
4.50 Will Fuller Notre Dame 22.4
4.09 Rashard Higgins CSU 21.9
3.76 Josh Doctson TCU 23.2
3.60 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 23.5
3.42 Roger Lewis BGSU 22.8
-0.06 Mike Thomas USM 22.0
-0.77 Bryce Treggs California 22.3
-1.40 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 23.8
Along with Laquon Treadwell & Michael Thomas.
Borden
Footballguy
Kenneth Dixon is the wild card for the running backs, IMO. The level of his competition has to be a point of concern because he averaged (just) under 100 yards per game rushing against weaker schools. He was very productive catching the ball (33/464/7) but at 5'10" and 213, I wonder if he is seen as a third down back in the NFL.
I'm not saying he isn't good I'm just wondering how his evaluation goes.
I'm not saying he isn't good I'm just wondering how his evaluation goes.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
And I'd he had a horrible line blocking for him would you still feel the same about his yds per game?
Tex
Borden
Footballguy
That's the thing, I don't know. I watched some of his games and it was what I expected. I'm not down on him but I not necessarily high on high either. Bad OL but lower tier tacklers. That's all part of the reason I think he is the wild card.
Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Here's a big, approximate ranking list based on my pre-draft rankings of the last few draft classes. I'll update this after the combine, which will shake things up and probably send more guys from this draft class closer to the top.
The comparisons are only rough and approximate. I haven't been that great at keeping all my pre-draft ratings from previous draft classes. Also, also because my formulas have changed a bit over the years. I think guys are basically in the right tier, but don't read too much into the rankings within tiers for different years. (Also, David Johnson is not a great point of comparison because I didn't have college stats from him.)
Eddie Lacy 2013
Todd Gurley 2015
Ezekiel Elliott 2016
Melvin Gordon 2015
Christine Michael 2013
Carlos Hyde 2014
Lache Seastrunk 2014
Jay Ajayi 2015
Tre Mason 2014
Giovani Bernard 2013
Ameer Abdullah 2015
Knile Davis 2013
Alex Collins 2016
Jeremy Hill 2014
Jerick McKinnon 2014
Jonathan Franklin 2013
Tevin Coleman 2015
Duke Johnson 2015
Bishop Sankey 2014
Derrick Henry 2016
David Johnson 2015
Marcus Lattimore 2013
Kenneth Dixon 2016
Paul Perkins 2016
Stephen Houston 2014
Henry Josey 2014
Zac Stacy 2013
D.J. Harper 2013
Le'Veon Bell 2013
Cierre Wood 2013
Kenjon Barner 2013
Montee Ball 2013
Jordan Howard 2016
Latavius Murray 2013
Isaiah Crowell 2014
Andre Williams 2014
Charles Sims 2014
Dri Archer 2014
Devonta Freeman 2014
DeAndre Washington 2016
David Cobb 2015
T.J. Yeldon 2015
Cameron Artis-Payne 2015
Karlos Williams 2015
Josh Robinson 2015
Corey Grant 2015
David Fluellen 2014
Treavor Scales 2013
Jeremy Langford 2015
C.J. Prosise 2016
Michael Ford 2013
Robert Godhigh 2014
Devontae Booker 2016
Matthew Tucker 2013
Mike Davis 2015
George Atkinson III 2014
Wendell Smallwood 2016
Terrance West 2014
Michael Dyer 2015
Tim Cornett 2014
C.J. Anderson 2013
Andre Ellington 2013
Matt Breida 2016
James White 2014
De'Anthony Thomas 2014
Lorenzo Taliaferro 2014
Rough labels for the tiers:
Guys I like a lot: Lacy through Hyde, including 1 RB this year: Elliott
Guys I like: Seastrunk through Davis
(Awkwardly between tiers: Collins, Hill, & McKinnon)
Guys who have a decent chance: Franklin through Archer, including 4 RBs this year: Henry, Dixon, Perkins, Howard
Guys I can't rule out: Freeman through Taliaferro, including 5 RBs this year: Washington, Prosise, Booker, Smallwood, Breida
Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
Great stuff, ZWK - thanks a bunch for your hard work and willingness to share it
lod01
Footballguy
Depends on how good the coaching staff is. 5'10 213 will soon be 5'10 225 which is far from a 3rd down back. in fact, in my mind, it is ideal size for a 3 down back.
ZWK
Footballguy
The 2 players who seem to have gotten the most buzz are the Senior Bowl are two asterisks who have been left out of my rankings because they don't have a standard track record - QB Carson Wentz and WR Braxton Miller. (Though the fact that they are asterisks might be part of what is generating the buzz - their lack of a standard track record is causing people to pay very close attention to them, which makes it easier for them to generate buzz.)
I tend to be skeptical of asterisks early in the draft, where I'm looking for players who check more of the boxes, but by the mid-rounds their upside becomes more exciting and the uncertainty is less of a problem.
Focusing on Miller first: I tend to be relatively skeptical of position-switchers. First, only a small fraction of players turn into elite NFL WRs. It takes a lot of positive information about a player in order to think that he has much of a chance to be one of those few. Players who are switching to RB have an easier time building a case for themselves than players who are switching to WR, because success at WR depends more on skills and less on raw size & athleticism than success at RB (and it's a lot easier to measure a position switchers size & athleticism than his skills). Second, it takes time to learn a new position, so switchers have an uphill battle. Again, this is tougher for WRs than for RBs. Third, if a player had what it takes to be elite at a position then you'd generally expect his college coaches to have played him at that position. This is less relevant for guys who played QB, since QB is so important a team might've preferred to have a decent QB rather than an elite WR or RB.
Miller has one year at WR under his belt, with unimpressive stats (25/340/3, 8.5 YPT). He has drawn mixed praise for his route-running, sometimes getting great separation (especially on double moves) but with some inconsistency and trouble when he needs to get open quickly. Apparently he had some problems with drops. There have been a couple of cases of guys who had NFL success after switching to WR (Julian Edelman, Hines Ward), but also plenty of failures (Greg Little, Matt Jones). My sense is that he basically fits the standard asterisk profile of a guy who I'll probably avoid early but might like if he falls into the mid-rounds.
Carson Wentz: He played QB at FCS school North Dakota State. He has good size, but size doesn't help you that much at QB. I'm not sure how comparable his stats are to FBS stats and I don't have data on most of the stats that I look at (3rd down passing, red zone passing, first downs). The one stat that I can calculate for him is my version of adjusted yards per attempt. He comes in at 9.37 AYPA this year and 9.31 last year, either of which would rank 20th if I pit him against the 100 FBS QBs in my spreadsheet. Somewhat concerningly, his replacement for the games that he missed this year (Easton Stick) had 9.23 AYPA and his predecessor in 2013 (Brock Jensen) had 10.13 AYPA. Scouts tend to be pretty good at evaluating QBs, including non-FBS QBs like Joe Flacco, so in the end I'll probably rate him fairly close to his draft position. But for now, to the extent that I can form an independent impression of him, I'm not all that excited.
Looking at a few players that scored well by my numbers, my sense is that RB Kenneth Dixon, WR Leonte Carroo, and QB Brandon Allen also got relatively positive reports at Senior Bowl practices. Dixon weighed in at 215 which is good size. Carroo hurt his ankle and missed the game, which quieted the buzz on him. He also came in a shade under 6'0" (though at 217 lb.), with relatively short arms. I've heard various good things about Allen's mechanics, footwork, decision-making, etc., but the overall level of buzz/glowingness of what people are saying doesn't seem that high (e.g., this report on Senior Bowl practices calls "the rest of the quarterbacks" besides Wentz duds, but singles out Allen as the "steadiest" of the non-Wentz QBs). Possibly Allen's small size is counting against him - he is just 6'1.5", 212, with small hands (though he did not have a fumbling problem). It'll be interesting to see how fast he throws at the combine.
WR Sterling Shepard generated a good amount of Senior Bowl buzz. He also had very good numbers in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception analysis, which looked at how consistently he (and Treadwell, Doctson, and Coleman) generated separation during the season. At some point I might take a closer look at Harmon's work to get a better sense of how good these receivers' numbers were.
I tend to be skeptical of asterisks early in the draft, where I'm looking for players who check more of the boxes, but by the mid-rounds their upside becomes more exciting and the uncertainty is less of a problem.
Focusing on Miller first: I tend to be relatively skeptical of position-switchers. First, only a small fraction of players turn into elite NFL WRs. It takes a lot of positive information about a player in order to think that he has much of a chance to be one of those few. Players who are switching to RB have an easier time building a case for themselves than players who are switching to WR, because success at WR depends more on skills and less on raw size & athleticism than success at RB (and it's a lot easier to measure a position switchers size & athleticism than his skills). Second, it takes time to learn a new position, so switchers have an uphill battle. Again, this is tougher for WRs than for RBs. Third, if a player had what it takes to be elite at a position then you'd generally expect his college coaches to have played him at that position. This is less relevant for guys who played QB, since QB is so important a team might've preferred to have a decent QB rather than an elite WR or RB.
Miller has one year at WR under his belt, with unimpressive stats (25/340/3, 8.5 YPT). He has drawn mixed praise for his route-running, sometimes getting great separation (especially on double moves) but with some inconsistency and trouble when he needs to get open quickly. Apparently he had some problems with drops. There have been a couple of cases of guys who had NFL success after switching to WR (Julian Edelman, Hines Ward), but also plenty of failures (Greg Little, Matt Jones). My sense is that he basically fits the standard asterisk profile of a guy who I'll probably avoid early but might like if he falls into the mid-rounds.
Carson Wentz: He played QB at FCS school North Dakota State. He has good size, but size doesn't help you that much at QB. I'm not sure how comparable his stats are to FBS stats and I don't have data on most of the stats that I look at (3rd down passing, red zone passing, first downs). The one stat that I can calculate for him is my version of adjusted yards per attempt. He comes in at 9.37 AYPA this year and 9.31 last year, either of which would rank 20th if I pit him against the 100 FBS QBs in my spreadsheet. Somewhat concerningly, his replacement for the games that he missed this year (Easton Stick) had 9.23 AYPA and his predecessor in 2013 (Brock Jensen) had 10.13 AYPA. Scouts tend to be pretty good at evaluating QBs, including non-FBS QBs like Joe Flacco, so in the end I'll probably rate him fairly close to his draft position. But for now, to the extent that I can form an independent impression of him, I'm not all that excited.
Looking at a few players that scored well by my numbers, my sense is that RB Kenneth Dixon, WR Leonte Carroo, and QB Brandon Allen also got relatively positive reports at Senior Bowl practices. Dixon weighed in at 215 which is good size. Carroo hurt his ankle and missed the game, which quieted the buzz on him. He also came in a shade under 6'0" (though at 217 lb.), with relatively short arms. I've heard various good things about Allen's mechanics, footwork, decision-making, etc., but the overall level of buzz/glowingness of what people are saying doesn't seem that high (e.g., this report on Senior Bowl practices calls "the rest of the quarterbacks" besides Wentz duds, but singles out Allen as the "steadiest" of the non-Wentz QBs). Possibly Allen's small size is counting against him - he is just 6'1.5", 212, with small hands (though he did not have a fumbling problem). It'll be interesting to see how fast he throws at the combine.
WR Sterling Shepard generated a good amount of Senior Bowl buzz. He also had very good numbers in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception analysis, which looked at how consistently he (and Treadwell, Doctson, and Coleman) generated separation during the season. At some point I might take a closer look at Harmon's work to get a better sense of how good these receivers' numbers were.
