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QB Deshaun Watson, HOU - 09.12.21 - Adam Schefter reports the Texans are seeking a combination of six players and picks in a Deshaun Watson trade


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34 minutes ago, dhockster said:

If this holdout was about money, then yes, I would say it was malpractice of the Agent, because holding out a year only costs you money in the long run. Look at Leveon Bell. He is never getting the 15 million the Steelers offered him for the year he sat out. For Deshaun, this is about not wanting to play for the Texans organization. By sitting out a year, in 2021, he is missing out on just $10.5 million of base salary as this is his 5th year option year. He already received the $27 million signing bonus on his contract extension in 2020. His contract extension base salary doesn't kick in until 2022 at $35 million. So I think Deshaun is willing to sit out in 2021 until he has to play to get his year of accrued service. I think that is after 8 or 9 games. He effectively ruins the Texans season and solidifies the Texans as a joke of an organization.

 

 

That changed under the new CBA for players under contract. You know have to report by mandatory reporting date of training camp or you don't get an accrued season.  If he does not accrues this year it's going to cost him a lot more then $10.5M.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, menobrown said:

That changed under the new CBA for players under contract. You know have to report by mandatory reporting date of training camp or you don't get an accrued season.  If he does not accrues this year it's going to cost him a lot more then $10.5M.

 

 

What if he says this:

Trade me, or else I show up to camp and collect my money while doing as much damage to the locker room and the Texans brand as I possibly can.  If you put me on the field, I will do everything in my power to inflict maximum embarrassment on the Texans.  Trade me now or regret it, there is no turning back from this. 

Scorched earth.  Then salt it. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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21 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

If the Texans don't trade him, I hope the fans stop coming out and they never win another game. This reminds me of when Washington's old idiot coach and GM refused to trade Trent Williams, and at one point they had an offer for a 1st rounder. Instead they punished him and ended up getting what, 4th and 6th or  something like that for him? Just stupid move by the old regime and Texans appear to be doing the same...

This how you lose leverage in terms of trade value. 

Who cares about the fans, it's the trade value you need to preserve. 

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12 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

This how you lose leverage in terms of trade value. 

Who cares about the fans, it's the trade value you need to preserve. 

Agreed, and they should trade NOW, while the value will be at the highest. Before teams address their QB by FA or the draft. The market will never be higher for Watson than it is RIGHT NOW. 

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6 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Agreed, and they should trade NOW, while the value will be at the highest. Before teams address their QB by FA or the draft. The market will never be higher for Watson than it is RIGHT NOW. 

This, exactly. They have teams begging to overpay. 

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50 minutes ago, menobrown said:

That changed under the new CBA for players under contract. You know have to report by mandatory reporting date of training camp or you don't get an accrued season.  If he does not accrues this year it's going to cost him a lot more then $10.5M.

 

 

The language is not very clear. Yes, it says a player must report by the mandatory reporting date of training camp to earn an accrued season, but then it also says you only have to be on "full play" status for six games to accrue a season. So can he report to training camp, hold out at the start of the season, and then play the last 6 games and accrue a season? Not sure what the answer is.

https://frontofficenfl.com/2020/05/24/2020-nfl-cba-explained-accrued-seasons-credited-seasons/

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27 minutes ago, dhockster said:

The language is not very clear. Yes, it says a player must report by the mandatory reporting date of training camp to earn an accrued season, but then it also says you only have to be on "full play" status for six games to accrue a season. So can he report to training camp, hold out at the start of the season, and then play the last 6 games and accrue a season? Not sure what the answer is.

https://frontofficenfl.com/2020/05/24/2020-nfl-cba-explained-accrued-seasons-credited-seasons/

I believe the 6 games is for players not under contract which would also apply to someone who was franchise tagged but did not sign it. That's kind of the old system we were used to were a player needed to show up to play by week 10 to get a season.

Under the new CBA I know it specifies that the fines for not showing up can be waived. I'm not sure if the teams control allowing a player who did not report to accrue a season, I would think not but unsure of that. So not sure for instance if like in week 8 the Texans said if you come back we'll count this as an accrued season, not sure if they can do that or not.

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I don't understand the Texans' mindset here. I agree that Watson's value is about as high as it's going to get right now.  You can keep him and whether he's unhappy or not, you aren't going to go deep into the playoffs with what you have. You have no draft picks and you're losing other players (Watt).  If you keep going 4-12 with no decent draft picks the next few years... when do you realize something ain't working?  

The iron is hot right now.  Trade the guy for a better chance at a bright future.  Get as many picks as you can for him while he's so coveted by other teams.  Herschel Walker trade from Dallas to Minn comes to mind here.  Worked about great for the Cowboys in early 90s.  Keeping a disgruntled player and taking a chance on losing the locker room just can't be good for business.  

But at this point it doesn't seem to be about business.  It's personal to Houston's management/ownership it seems.  They have to make a point I guess.  Good luck to Houston fans.  But I'd get as much as I could right now and move on.  

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While I agree it would make sense for the Texans to trade him from an X's and O's standpoint, they may have to be the sacrificial lamb for the good of the league.  The league can't have the lunatics running the asylum.  I don't care if you're Watson, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, or whoever.  You don't have any right or entitlement to have a say in the operations of the team unless they give it to you.

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4 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

While I agree it would make sense for the Texans to trade him from an X's and O's standpoint, they may have to be the sacrificial lamb for the good of the league.  The league can't have the lunatics running the asylum.  I don't care if you're Watson, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, or whoever.  You don't have any right or entitlement to have a say in the operations of the team unless they give it to you.

That might be true if you've run your organization intelligently, shown consideration and class to all your players...but this is the Texans.....

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Quote

Deshaun Watson would lose around $20.2 million if he sits out the 2021 season. 

The numbers, while a bit complicated, add up to $20.2 million if Watson skips mandatory minicamp, training camp, and the regular season. He's reportedly told the Texans he will not play another snap for the team, possibly setting up a protracted battle between the two sides. Watson can essentially choose his next team since he has a no-trade clause in the contract he signed last year. Holding out the entire season would mean Watson's base salary would remain $10.54 million in 2022. Taking the ultimate hard line -- as Le'Veon Bell did with the Steelers in 2018 -- would sacrifice a year in the prime of Watson's career. He'll be 26 in September. 

SOURCE: ProFootballTalk.com 

Feb 27, 2021, 3:18 PM ET

 

 

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On 2/27/2021 at 10:28 AM, zed2283 said:

While I agree it would make sense for the Texans to trade him from an X's and O's standpoint, they may have to be the sacrificial lamb for the good of the league.  The league can't have the lunatics running the asylum.  I don't care if you're Watson, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, or whoever.  You don't have any right or entitlement to have a say in the operations of the team unless they give it to you.

And what has been reported is that the team told Deshaun he would have some input into who the next coach would be. Whether that is true or not who knows.

But if it is true, the Texans clearly lied about Deshaun having input. And the Texans said they were going to change the team culture from the one under O'Brien which was trying to be the Patriots south. Hiring Nick Caserio seems to keep the Patriot south culture going, hence Deshaun's tweet "the more things change, the more they stay the same". So if the Texans lied about having input, and lied about changing the team culture, and traded away a good friend and major team asset in D'Andre Hopkins the previous offseason for pennies on the dollar, wouldn't you conclude that this organization doesn't know how to do things, and want out?

And believe me the Texans are not going to do anything for the good of the league. Whatever path they are on, it is not for the good of the league, the good of the Texans, or anything resembling common sense. They are on the Easterby train and it is leading them to be the shining example of incompetence.

Edited by dhockster
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On 2/27/2021 at 11:28 AM, zed2283 said:

While I agree it would make sense for the Texans to trade him from an X's and O's standpoint, they may have to be the sacrificial lamb for the good of the league.  The league can't have the lunatics running the asylum.  I don't care if you're Watson, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, or whoever.  You don't have any right or entitlement to have a say in the operations of the team unless they give it to you.

I'd argue the lunatics have been running the asylum for almost 5 years and that's why DeShaun Watson wants out.

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1 hour ago, dhockster said:

And what has been reported is that the team told Deshaun he would have some input into who the next coach would be. Whether that is true or not who knows.

But if it is true, the Texans clearly lied about Deshaun having input. And the Texans said they were going to change the team culture from the one under O'Brien which was trying to be the Patriots south. Hiring Nick Caserio seems to keep the Patriot south culture going, hence Deshaun's tweet "the more things change, the more they stay the same". So if the Texans lied about having input, and lied about changing the team culture, and traded away a good friend and major team asset in D'Andre Hopkins the previous offseason for pennies on the dollar, wouldn't you conclude that this organization doesn't know how to do things, and want out?

And believe me the Texans are not going to do anything for the good of the league. Whatever path they are on, it is not for the good of the league, the good of the Texans, or anything resembling common sense. They are on the Easterby train and it is leading them to be the shining example of incompetence.

At this point I am hoping the other owners eventually force Cal McNair out. It’s a very slim chance, but it’s clear his interference and blindless faith in Easterby is running the team into the ground (not that his dad did much better keeping BOB and Rick Smith around for so long.) For now they are probably just laughing at the ineptitude and hoping to pick over the carcass but at some point the toxicity Easterby is breeding may actually be damaging to the rest of the league. 

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1 hour ago, Buckna said:

At this point I am hoping the other owners eventually force Cal McNair out. It’s a very slim chance, but it’s clear his interference and blindless faith in Easterby is running the team into the ground (not that his dad did much better keeping BOB and Rick Smith around for so long.) For now they are probably just laughing at the ineptitude and hoping to pick over the carcass but at some point the toxicity Easterby is breeding may actually be damaging to the rest of the league. 

Unfortunately, if the NFL has not found a way to run off Dan Snyder, for basically ruining a once proud franchise and driving away Redskins fans (sorry, the Football Team fans), there is no way they will run off Cal McNair. Like you said, the other owners will just pick over the carcass looking for scraps.

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6 hours ago, dhockster said:

And what has been reported is that the team told Deshaun he would have some input into who the next coach would be. Whether that is true or not who knows.

But if it is true, the Texans clearly lied about Deshaun having input. And the Texans said they were going to change the team culture from the one under O'Brien which was trying to be the Patriots south. Hiring Nick Caserio seems to keep the Patriot south culture going, hence Deshaun's tweet "the more things change, the more they stay the same". So if the Texans lied about having input, and lied about changing the team culture, and traded away a good friend and major team asset in D'Andre Hopkins the previous offseason for pennies on the dollar, wouldn't you conclude that this organization doesn't know how to do things, and want out?

And believe me the Texans are not going to do anything for the good of the league. Whatever path they are on, it is not for the good of the league, the good of the Texans, or anything resembling common sense. They are on the Easterby train and it is leading them to be the shining example of incompetence.

 

5 hours ago, The Frankman said:

I'd argue the lunatics have been running the asylum for almost 5 years and that's why DeShaun Watson wants out.

Both good points.

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3 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

If I were getting paid that kind of money, I'd just #### (ess-tee-eff-you) and do my job. But I guess you have to be a pampered primadonna to be an NFL player today.

No offense but you have no idea what it's like to be one of the 5-10 best people in the world at a job were after 5 years experience the going rate is $30-40M annually. Watson did not just stumble into this money or his beholden to the Texans for it, it's the going rate for his services. Why would he have to just shut up and do his job and not have a voice for wanting to work in another place just because he got paid market value? We would not expect this of people in corporate america, at least I would not.

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8 hours ago, menobrown said:

Why would he have to just shut up and do his job and not have a voice for wanting to work in another place just because he got paid market value? We would not expect this of people in corporate America, at least I would not.

Because he signed a contract stating he would do just that. Pretty sure in corporate America, if you signed a contract stating turns of employment and decided to just refuse to work if you didn't get your way, it wouldn't work out as well as you seem to think.

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9 hours ago, menobrown said:

No offense but you have no idea what it's like to be one of the 5-10 best people in the world at a job were after 5 years experience the going rate is $30-40M annually. Watson did not just stumble into this money or his beholden to the Texans for it, it's the going rate for his services. Why would he have to just shut up and do his job and not have a voice for wanting to work in another place just because he got paid market value? We would not expect this of people in corporate america, at least I would not.

In addition, if he is one of the top players in his industry and his team is successful, his marketing potential goes up significantly. if he sees the Texans basically going to the crapper because of management, that is severely hurting his ability to market himself nationally. I don't think the money is why Deshaun is doing this, but money is definitely one way we measure ourselves in today's society. Especially in and industry that is based on competition.

He did sign a contract and it is the Texans right to try to hold him to that contract. But in the long run, it may cost the Texans more if they do try to make him honor his contract. Deshaun and his agents know this which is why they are doing it.

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1 hour ago, DallasDMac said:

Because he signed a contract stating he would do just that. Pretty sure in corporate America, if you signed a contract stating turns of employment and decided to just refuse to work if you didn't get your way, it wouldn't work out as well as you seem to think.

If you were high up in corporate America and did sign a contract stating terms of employment, there is a good chance that there would be a non-compete provision in there, thus giving the employee very little leverage in trying to get out of their contract. As far as I know based on how contract disputes have played out in the NFL, the NFL players don't sign non-compete agreements so that once they get out of the contract they sign, they are free to play for other teams. That is what gives Deshaun some leverage.

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3 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

Because he signed a contract stating he would do just that. Pretty sure in corporate America, if you signed a contract stating turns of employment and decided to just refuse to work if you didn't get your way, it wouldn't work out as well as you seem to think.

This is completely different from the corporate world, where we are all replaceable a million times over. 

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Ah yea it’s the if I, the extremely replaceable middle of the road average dude were being paid 10s of millions of dollars I would just accept it! argument.
 

With no context that the person you are talking about is one of the 5 best in the world at what he does at a position of great demand in a billion dollar industry. Always love to see that position taken. 

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7 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

This is completely different from the corporate world, where we are all replaceable a million times over. 

I didn't bring up corporate America comparison. I was responding to the post that stated:

"We would not expect this of people in corporate America, at least I would not."

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This team just went 4-12 with Watson under center.  He's the only asset they have.  They have no picks.  No future.  If some of these projected trades are legitimate they should have been trying to trade him whether he requested it or not. 

Tua and 2 1sts+?  Darnold and 2 1sts+?  Those should be obvious accepts for a player unwilling to play for your franchise.

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15 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Watson signed AFTER the Texans traded Hopkins. He had a clue where the Texans were going or what the management was like and he gladly signed the extension which paid him 27 million at signing and the contract is worth over 156 million. Watson got emotional after the signing thanking ownership for the opportunity. I believe that was in September of 2020. Watson now has hurt feelings or is upset and wants out??? How can the Texans not hold him to the contract?? The trade offer would have to be so outlandish for me to even pick up the phone which means it would not happen. How can you give an extension less than a year ago for that kind of money and have a no trade clause in the contract and then let the player cry he wants out and you are suppose to trade him because his feelings are hurt?? In the words of Chris Carter "CMON MAN".  They do not have to include him in front office decisions "EVER". They could tell him weekly they were going to include him in the decision and then don't and that is just "FINE". Or they did get his input and made another decision and that is also "OKAY"  Suck it up Butter Cup. Or sit and pay fines. Or retire. The Texans can sign Fitzmagic or Dalton and go into the season just like that and play games and people would still show up if they are permitted too. How many Super Bowls has Watson won? You start telling players they can sign an extension one season and cry trade the next you are setting  dangerous tone for years to come.  I would love to see him sit out and watch his fines get to 20.2 million and the Texans just play on like nothing is wrong at all. 

I usually am on the side of management when players sit out and take the same attitude you are that if the player signs the contract, he should abide by it. However, in this case, being in Houston and watching the Texans organization implode over the last year due to the incompetence of the McNair and Easterby, I definitely can understand ANY player on the Texans looking at the organization and what it has become and saying "I got to get out of this place. These guys are clueless". My opinion is that Deshaun isn't a diva or a malcontent, he just has seen enough.

As for fans continuing to show up, I think there will be tons of empty seats if Fitz or Dalton or some other retread is playing QB. The Texans, without Deshaun playing, have zero star players for fans to come and see. They have the worst defensive personnel in the league and who knows what their offense is going to be as David Culley has never overseen an offense before. Like I said, the Texans can play hardball, but if Deshaun is willing to play hardball too, then both sides are going to lose.

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5 minutes ago, dhockster said:

However, in this case, being in Houston and watching the Texans organization implode over the last year due to the incompetence of the McNair and Easterby, I definitely can understand ANY player on the Texans looking at the organization and what it has become and saying "I got to get out of this place. These guys are clueless". My opinion is that Deshaun isn't a diva or a malcontent, he just has seen enough.

So they were good at it before, and only became bad in the one year since Watson signed his contract? That seems a little unlikely.

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42 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

So they were good at it before, and only became bad in the one year since Watson signed his contract? That seems a little unlikely.

Well, Cal McNair took over as owner in November of 2018 when his father passed away. Here is the timeline of significant transactions since then:

Nov 2018: Cal becomes owner

April 2019 Easterby hired as executive VP of team development

June 2019: GM Brian Gaine Fired. No new GM hired, O'Brien and Easterby will fill the role

Aug 2019: Clowney traded for pennies on the dollar

Aug 2019: Texans trade for Tunsil, Stills, Giving up 2 1sts and a 2nd round pick

Sep 2019: Nick Martin signed to a ridiculous extension

Dec 2019: Mercilus signed to a ridiculous extension

Jan 2020: Texans finish season 10-6, Beat Buffalo, lose to KC in divisional round 51-31

Jan 2020: Easterby promoted to Executive VP of football operations

March 2020 : DeAndre Hopkins traded for second round pick, David Johnson

Sept 5th 2020: Watson signs extension

Oct 2020: After 0-4 start, O'Brien fired

Nov 2020: Award winning VP of communications Amy Palcic fired

Jan 2021: Texans finish 4-12

Feb 2021: Nick Casserio Hired, David Culley (who?) Hired, Watt released, Jamie Roots Team President resigns

So yes, the incompetence did start before Deshaun signed his extension, the evidence of the incompetence didn't really manifest itself until the 2020 season and has only gotten worse in the 2021 offseason.

 

 

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7 hours ago, dhockster said:

Well, Cal McNair took over as owner in November of 2018 when his father passed away. Here is the timeline of significant transactions since then:

...

So yes, the incompetence did start before Deshaun signed his extension, the evidence of the incompetence didn't really manifest itself until the 2020 season and has only gotten worse in the 2021 offseason.

 

 

Thanks, didn't know all that history. Appreciate the backstory.

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15 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Is the starting point 3 first rounders and more? I think so and I also think discussing where those future picks are needs to be calculated in the formula. I know when discussing 3 first rounders and what they will be is difficult but you have to think one of those first rounders needs to be high. 3 first rounders plus would be getting the discussion started and maybe get the deal done depending on the plus. 

I think there may be a flaw in your thinking. And that is that they'll get Watson' actual perceived value. The fact of the matter may be that Watson isn't going to play for HOU, he'll sit if not traded. If that is the case, HOU may well be forced to accept a lesser offer because it is better than nothing at all. So I really have my doubts that Watson's true value is going to end up being the starting point for any conversations.

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On 3/6/2021 at 6:05 AM, osubuckeyeman said:

Let's step away for a second of whether a trade should happen and discuss what the compensation should be for Deshaun Watson. We can look at the Stafford trade for a recent trade of a older franchise QB. The Detroit Lions traded Stafford for two future first round picks 2022 and 2023. A third round pick in 2021 and Goff. I can see this as a starting point but a very low end starting point. The two first rounders are future first rounders and the Rams are planning on winning now. The potential that the first rounders are late first rounders seems more than likely. I would say somewhere of a 60% chance we are talking back of the first round picks. I also know anything can happen in the NFL and these picks could turn into high end first round picks or one of the two could so this needs to be calculated in process of determining value. 

I would say the difference between Stafford and Watson would need to be discussed. Stafford is 33 and Watson is 25. Stafford though very good has not won a playoff game in 12 years. He has not had the best supporting cast around him or a coaching staff. Deshaun Watson has won a playoff game in 2019. I think then eyeballing the players is important. How much better is Watson as a player or prospect moving forward. My opinion is you never pay someone for past performance but future performance. How much better is Watson moving forward? Or is he that much better than Stafford moving forward?

I do think where the NFL is going there is a significant difference in value of Watson over Stafford. The outcome of a trade might not reflect this because of where he lands. Watson's no trade clause will also effect this but you get the point. Is the starting point 3 first rounders and more? I think so and I also think discussing where those future picks are needs to be calculated in the formula. I know when discussing 3 first rounders and what they will be is difficult but you have to think one of those first rounders needs to be high. 3 first rounders plus would be getting the discussion started and maybe get the deal done depending on the plus. 

The contracts and structure of the players is a factor but the team getting Watson would also have to understand that a contract for Watson right or wrong means nothing in the scheme of things. He could decide he does not want to honor the contract with you as well. He could walk away from you though not likely Watson would do that again but I would argue this even if just behind closed doors would be discussed at least I would. I mean you are not doing your due diligence if you don't look at everything.

Though fun to think about. If I was the decision maker in Houston this is not the "Godfather" trade I would take myself but I would listen and most likely hold on to Watson at the end of the day.  What do you think? Would this get it done for you?

One of the first round picks Detroit got was because they were willing to take on Goff’s horrific contract.

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On 3/6/2021 at 5:05 AM, osubuckeyeman said:

Let's step away for a second of whether a trade should happen and discuss what the compensation should be for Deshaun Watson. We can look at the Stafford trade for a recent trade of a older franchise QB. The Detroit Lions traded Stafford for two future first round picks 2022 and 2023. A third round pick in 2021 and Goff. I can see this as a starting point but a very low end starting point. The two first rounders are future first rounders and the Rams are planning on winning now. The potential that the first rounders are late first rounders seems more than likely. I would say somewhere of a 60% chance we are talking back of the first round picks. I also know anything can happen in the NFL and these picks could turn into high end first round picks or one of the two could so this needs to be calculated in process of determining value. 

I would say the difference between Stafford and Watson would need to be discussed. Stafford is 33 and Watson is 25. Stafford though very good has not won a playoff game in 12 years. He has not had the best supporting cast around him or a coaching staff. Deshaun Watson has won a playoff game in 2019. I think then eyeballing the players is important. How much better is Watson as a player or prospect moving forward. My opinion is you never pay someone for past performance but future performance. How much better is Watson moving forward? Or is he that much better than Stafford moving forward?

I do think where the NFL is going there is a significant difference in value of Watson over Stafford. The outcome of a trade might not reflect this because of where he lands. Watson's no trade clause will also effect this but you get the point. Is the starting point 3 first rounders and more? I think so and I also think discussing where those future picks are needs to be calculated in the formula. I know when discussing 3 first rounders and what they will be is difficult but you have to think one of those first rounders needs to be high. 3 first rounders plus would be getting the discussion started and maybe get the deal done depending on the plus. 

The contracts and structure of the players is a factor but the team getting Watson would also have to understand that a contract for Watson right or wrong means nothing in the scheme of things. He could decide he does not want to honor the contract with you as well. He could walk away from you though not likely Watson would do that again but I would argue this even if just behind closed doors would be discussed at least I would. I mean you are not doing your due diligence if you don't look at everything.

Though fun to think about. If I was the decision maker in Houston this is not the "Godfather" trade I would take myself but I would listen and most likely hold on to Watson at the end of the day.  What do you think? Would this get it done for you?

I like your analysis. The interesting thing about the situation is there are two teams, The Jets and the Dolphins, who apparently have interest in Deshaun Watson and apparently Deshaun would be willing to be traded to, that have two first round picks THIS YEAR. Not only that, but one of those picks is very high for both teams. This is huge because there would be no speculation for the Texans where those picks would fall because they are locked in. If the Texans decide to trade Deshaun before the draft, they will get a big haul, I think 3 first round picks is the minimum of what they could get.

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1 minute ago, osubuckeyeman said:

 

I did not check any of Bill's numbers myself. Just so it is know. I would think they would check that out.

 

He's so wrong he's just making himself look senile.  He's confusing the dead cap hit with the difference in a trade vs a release.

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1 minute ago, osubuckeyeman said:

I can see that. The podcast though interesting does seem he has  some "moments" but it's an interesting listen. 

I listen to him some times. He strikes me as having a huge ego but if you told me he has forgot more football then I know I would not take offense to that. He earned his HOF nod.

But in this case, and I"m surprised no one tried to help him clarify what he was saying,  Watson's dead cap it if traded before June 1 is $21.6m, but only about $5.5M less then what his cap hit would be if he played for them this year so not a huge deal for team that is not really trying to compete now anyway.

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12 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Just listened to Bill Polian's podcast and he is claiming it's almost impossible for Houston to trade Watson. He stated that the dead money in the deal is 64 million and the cap is 180. Texans would have to eat 64 million to trade Watson that is 1/3 of their cap before free agency and signing any rookies.  He did say he expects there to be grievance filed by Watson and his agent and that this will get very messy. He also mentioned this could go to arbitration and that the Texans will win in arbitration then Watson and his agent would take it to court.  All of this to make it as painful as possible for the Texans. He later in the podcast kind of backs off this with stating maybe the Texans will be willing to play with 1/3 of their cap gone to tank. I don't understand that myself but I do understand the 64 million dollar dead money being a serious issue. He does lay out a very complicated option where Watson would retire then pay back the Texans the 64 million and the team trading for Watson then would reimburse Watson then the trade could happen and the dead cap money would just go away for the Texans. He mentions though the league would have an issue with that whole process. I honestly do not think that option would ever happen but what do I know. 

I did not check any of Bill's numbers myself. Just so it is know. I would think they would check that out.

"Inside Football Podcast" Bill Polian Episode 39 QB Carousel 2021 Part 2.  The time of the discussion starts at minute 2:40 and ends 20:30. 

Deshaun's current cap hit is about $16 million for 2021 which includes base salary and prorated signing bonus. If the Texans trade him, They don't have to pay his base salary, but have to take all of the remaining signing bonus against the cap. That would be $21.6 million, so the Texans would take an additional $5 million against the cap from where they are right now. All of the guaranteed base salary monies go with the contract to the new team and does not count against the Texans cap.

Polian should really have someone review his talking points before he goes on the air.

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12 hours ago, menobrown said:

I listen to him some times. He strikes me as having a huge ego but if you told me he has forgot more football then I know I would not take offense to that. He earned his HOF nod.

But in this case, and I"m surprised no one tried to help him clarify what he was saying,  Watson's dead cap it if traded before June 1 is $21.6m, but only about $5.5M less then what his cap hit would be if he played for them this year so not a huge deal for team that is not really trying to compete now anyway.

Sorry, didn't see your post. I basically repeated what you said

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The Dak contract put a thought in my head and that thought is that I actually think Watson will sit the entire season out if he's not traded. I mean it, I'm lowering him big time in redraft and basically letting someone else take him were he's going and on the dynasty teams I own him I'm shifting my focus to preparing as if he won't be available unless he is traded.

Here is my thought process. From what I have read he'll lose about $20M if he sits out the year. 

If he sits out the season he'll pick his contract back up next year which is the one year of his current deal which has the low base salary of just over $10M.

He has a no trade clause, can easily make any team that wants to acquire him redo his contract before he accepts the trade. Now if Dak is worth $40m then Watson would likely come in around $42-45M if he was reaching FA today. Now a team that acquired Watson would not want to pay the bounty for him plus make him a $40+M dollar QB but I do think with that relatively meager $10m base pay it will be easy to reach a common ground.

So here is what I mean. This is Watson's pay on his current contract a team would inherit if they traded for him:

Year one: $10.54M

Year two: $35M

Year three: $37M

Year 4 and 5: $32m

That seems really easy to me for a team to feel comfortable surrending a bounty of picks for Watson while also easily working in a $20+M bonus into the deal to make him whole on the year he sat out.

I just don't think the loss of his pay this year is going to be a big threat to him.

 

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14 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Still have to get the Texans to play ball and there is still risk. He loses 20 million and a year on his career. No guarantees it works out. If the Texans continue to play hard ball and really if they let him sit out a year then there is as much of a chance they continue to let him sit. I think this has a good chance to get ugly if there is no trade before the draft. I think it will take a "MEGA" trade to get a deal done. You have to think the Texans have to make sure they get something over and beyond ridiculous to even entertain trading Deshaun.

I would trade Deshaun before the draft this year, but it would not shock me if the Texans decide to play hard ball and keep him and be willing to live with him sitting out 2021. However, if that happens, There is no way the Texans could have him potentially sit out 2022. They would trade him before the draft next season. The benefit of proving their point would have been made (that you can't get out of a contract with the Texans easily) and to continue to let him sit out would just be devaluing a major asset of the franchise. I don't think Cal McNair or Jack Easterby are that stupid, but I could be wrong.

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4 hours ago, dhockster said:

I would trade Deshaun before the draft this year, but it would not shock me if the Texans decide to play hard ball and keep him and be willing to live with him sitting out 2021. However, if that happens, There is no way the Texans could have him potentially sit out 2022. They would trade him before the draft next season. The benefit of proving their point would have been made (that you can't get out of a contract with the Texans easily) and to continue to let him sit out would just be devaluing a major asset of the franchise. I don't think Cal McNair or Jack Easterby are that stupid, but I could be wrong.

One of the local beat writers in Miami thinks this will happen, and thinks Miami should trade down from 3 and pick up an extra 1st in 2022 to be able to offer 2 firsts in 2022 for him (like down to 8 with carolina.  You still get Chase, Waddle, Smith or Pitts plus pick up the draft capital if the Texans slow play watson)

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2 hours ago, Gatorman said:

One of the local beat writers in Miami thinks this will happen, and thinks Miami should trade down from 3 and pick up an extra 1st in 2022 to be able to offer 2 firsts in 2022 for him (like down to 8 with carolina.  You still get Chase, Waddle, Smith or Pitts plus pick up the draft capital if the Texans slow play watson)

Personally I think Miami should do that regardless. Someone will be QB needy and overpay for the 3. Pick up more picks to improve next year or be able to trade for improvements (like maybe Watson.)

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3 hours ago, Buckna said:

Personally I think Miami should do that regardless. Someone will be QB needy and overpay for the 3. Pick up more picks to improve next year or be able to trade for improvements (like maybe Watson.)

Crazy to think that they're pretty much trading Tunsil for Deshaun.  Well played MIA.  

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15 hours ago, Major said:

Crazy to think that they're pretty much trading Tunsil for Deshaun.  Well played MIA.  

yep, It would come out to basically Tunsil and a 1 in 2022 for Watson and 1 in 2020 (and we took a tackle with that pick)

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Quote

NFL Network's Jim Trotter believes Deshaun Watson will be traded after interviewing Texans coach David Culley. 

In fact, Trotter "firmly believes" it after an interview where Culley spoke in constant hypotheticals about his roster, hinting at big change on the horizon. "He is our starting quarterback right now," Culley hedged. "He is our starting quarterback. Things happen between now and then. We'll see what happens." Yikes. The Texans' front office continues to feign a brave face, but there has been zero indication of softening from Watson's camp. Culley's comments are the first signs of breaking from the Texans. The situation should come to a head before the draft. 

SOURCE: Jim Trotter on Twitter 

Mar 11, 2021, 1:37 PM ET

 

 

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  • Faust changed the title to QB Deshaun Watson, HOU - 09.12.21 - Adam Schefter reports the Texans are seeking a combination of six players and picks in a Deshaun Watson trade

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