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Josh Gordon - August 1, 2016 (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Soulfly3
- Start date
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Where do you like him in a standard 12 team redraft that starts 3WRs? Let's say the draft is before pre-season starts and he's been clean and committed to playing.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Ok, Soulfly3 honesty time.
In redraft THIS season, I probably take him AFTER a brown, julio, beckham and deandre.
That's it. No one else I'd rather have.
I am a "risk taker" though. That's just how I play. Fantasy is fun, the money means nothing... It's just the fun of being right in a league w the same 11 other dudes for the past nearly 15yrs.
In redraft THIS season, I probably take him AFTER a brown, julio, beckham and deandre.
That's it. No one else I'd rather have.
I am a "risk taker" though. That's just how I play. Fantasy is fun, the money means nothing... It's just the fun of being right in a league w the same 11 other dudes for the past nearly 15yrs.
Assuming a trouble free, 16 game season, I'd put him behind Antonio, Julio, Beckham, ARobinson, Marshall, Hopkins, AJ Green, Watkins, D.Thomas, Sanders, and Cooks. That puts him at #12. Or a low WR1. Ahead of Baldwin, Calvin, Fitzgerald, K Benjamin, and Decker. Although I think those last five are probably a safer pick, all things considered.
I think the 5 or 6 games he played where he was largely ineffective at the end of the 2014 season have to be taken into consideration. But his youth and 2013 potential has to be weighed in also.
EDIT: I forgot about Dez Bryant, who I'd also put ahead of him.
I think the 5 or 6 games he played where he was largely ineffective at the end of the 2014 season have to be taken into consideration. But his youth and 2013 potential has to be weighed in also.
EDIT: I forgot about Dez Bryant, who I'd also put ahead of him.
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Thunderlips
Footballguy
So 12 or 13 puts him end of the 3rd/early 4th in a 12 team?
It might be anecdotal, but its been my experiences that most of the best teams in various fantasy football leagues have if not a similar roster.......they have similar players that they took that far exceded Average Draft Positions. I think Gordon's going to be one of those players this year. He's a guy that will be on championship rosters next year and other teams in various leagues will be floored by the Gronk/Dez Bryant/Gordon trio that someone puts together.
Unless you're a young kid who wasn't around in 2013, I don't think Gordon is going to take anyone by surprise if he has a big year. It's like Peterson coming off his ACL injury a few years ago. We all know the potential. And we all know the risk. I think that he has a shot at being the top overall receiver in 2016. And probably only 3 or 4 other receivers have that possibility. But he also has the biggest chance to misstep and be shut down for the season. All reports seem good as far as him learning his lesson and wanting to succeed. I have him at #12 because of a combination of risk and situation. But I won't be floored if he ends up having a monster year. I'm actually hoping he does. Especially if I can get him in the second or third.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
You guys taking his 4 games last year into account, are really missing the point.
HE DID NOT GET TO TRAIN W THE TEAM OR LEARN THE PLAYBOOK.
He was suspended under an antiquated system where he was banned from all footballing and even attending the team premises.
He came in week 10, cold turkey, new system. No #### it didnt turn out well
HE DID NOT GET TO TRAIN W THE TEAM OR LEARN THE PLAYBOOK.
He was suspended under an antiquated system where he was banned from all footballing and even attending the team premises.
He came in week 10, cold turkey, new system. No #### it didnt turn out well
We all know that. Those games don't just get thrown out, though. Sometimes, the QB can simply say "do an out and up" or "Run a slant". For being this undisputed best receiver the league has ever seen (using your thought process), you'd have thought he would have been a little better than he was. He did get to practice with the team once he was reinstated. So that 20+ practices in those 4 weeks.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
to be honest, your level of pickle tugging for Gordon is the stuff PFA's are made for. But the ones you named all have had multiple great seasons. Gordon has had one. We still don't know what the fluke was. I have him at #12 on my board after being out of the game two years. That's a compliment. You get defensive anytime someone doesn't have him at number one. Very weird.
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Soulfly3
Footballguy
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
You're talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy, though. If he winds up being one of those guys who are on a lot of champs' rosters, then all that means is that he managed to put up a "right side of the bell curve" outcome. It doesn't mean that taking him where you got him (or even at his ADP) was worth the risk.
In fact, the problem with cats like this is that when a player carries such a huge range of outcomes, invariably owners' opinions are going to cover a huge range as well.
By which I mean: take a guy like Jarvis Landry. If you held a 2016 redraft today, he'd probably go off the board right around WR20. And if you asked 100 random fantasy owners "would you take Landry at WR10? How about WR30?", you'd get 95% of them answering "No" to the first question and 95% "Yes" to the second. Makes sense, right?
Let's say (as I do, given that we're still 6+ months from training camp) that you think Gordon should be valued at around WR20 as well. But in his case, if you asked those same 100 people the same two questions, you might get 25% of them to say they'd take him as high as WR10, and another 25% who wouldn't even bite at WR30 (with some subset who wouldn't draft him no matter what).
But in your 12-team league, there aren't 12 Josh Gordons to go around! There's only one. And among the other 11 owners, there's very likely at least one whose opinion of him is way more optimistic than the mean (let's call him "Soulfly"). So to get him, you're not going to have to beat 11 average owners to the punch. You're going to have to beat Soul to the punch - who might already be willing to pay a price three rounds earlier than average.
It doesn't mean that, even then, he's being drafted at his ceiling ... there are only a handful of guys whose ceiling is overall WR1, and he's one of 'em. But you would most likely be drafting him too high for the risk, at least for my personal taste.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Vick is a very big excuse.
I'm excited about Gordon's prospect next year. I picked him up off WW and held him all last year with the expectation that he'll be a top 10 guy and have at least a couple of games next year that he'll win the week for me.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
salmonstud
Footballguy
I have been offered Cobb straight up for him in dynasty. Was considering playing it safe & trading for Cobb but Cobb just doesn't have the upside of Gordon so decided to turn it down and gamble - hoping he can get reinstated & keep his #%$ out of trouble.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I am on the other end, I offered a guy Cobb for Gordon and pick 1.09 in the rookie draft this year (12 team league) and got a straight reject with no counter.
DropKick
Footballguy
Not really the strongest offer; Cobb is at a low point after a sub-par, injury riddled season and you also wanted a 1st round pick, albeit late.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I agree that Cobb is at his lowest point, but Gordon is also a much larger risk than Cobb, and at this time this draft appears to be weak compared to previous drafts. I thought it was a fair offer, and this owner has said he wants to move Gordon.DropKick said:
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georg013
Footballguy
Problem is, Gordon owners dont value Gordon the way non Gordon owners do lest theyd be Gordon owners as well and just as little inclined to move him for a penny stock like Cobb.
Still happy with my 1.10 I gave for Gordon this year. The 1.10 can be as big of a bust as Gordon can be but he's shown his upside already. Seems like a pretty fair range to me. If he gets good word of mouth during training camp and makes a couple of nice grabs in preseason he can be flipped for more than that but I wouldn't do it. Nice wr3 to have.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
I believe all three of those mentioned were unique situations... Bryant wasn't the same or even close after the foot injury... Calvin wasn't OLine proof as it limited his downfield usage ALOT... And Brown really wasn't even playing with a QB when Ben went down (yeah Vick was THAT bad)... If Gordon gets a QB not afraid to be aggressive then he should be fine...
Not many people worried about Cooks or Sanders getting suspended for "accidently" smoking weed or drinking. If Gordon wasn't coming off a two year layoff and wasn't one sip of beer away from a lifetime ban, he'd be up in the top five. Pretending those things aren't a risk is just silly.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
If he plays a full 16,
And Philip of Macedon once said: “If I enter Laconia, I will level Sparta to the ground.”
Thunderlips
Footballguy
If we're saying his ADP is in the Sanders/Cooks range.....I think he (risk and all) is well worth the draft spot....particularly if I get an elite WR in the first round. Sanders and Cooks are fine receivers....but I think you can emulate their production with another WR in the later rounds. While it is possible for a later round WR to crack the top 5 WR production list at the end of the year,.....I think most would agree that there will be few drafted behind Gordon who have a realistic shot to do so. Even with the threat of a season ending suspension looming, I kind of see this as Tom Brady last year.
I'm more of a shoot for the moon guy in fantasy sports and these type of situations have always attracted my attention ( I drafted Gordon in 2014 with the expectations that he was going to beat his suspension and give me top 3 WR production for a 10th+ round pick).
Traded Demaryius Thomas for Josh Gordon, Melvin Gordon, and an early 3rd in 12-team ppr dynasty with 30 man rosters I inherited mid season this year.
Not the biggest MG fan but hoping he flashes a game or two and I can sell at some point.
Demaryius is trending way down IMO and who knows who Denver's QB is next year? so I liked the deal. Its "risky" but if Gordon stays on the field this is an easy win imo.
Not the biggest MG fan but hoping he flashes a game or two and I can sell at some point.
Demaryius is trending way down IMO and who knows who Denver's QB is next year? so I liked the deal. Its "risky" but if Gordon stays on the field this is an easy win imo.
steelers1080
Footballguy
I hope he gets traded from the Browns. Hue could try and put his stamp on the team without the spectre of a "troubled" player hanging over his team. I bet the Browns try and get rid of the limelight that gets drawn in for negative reasons. Aka cut/trade Johnny and Flash.
If he does leave the team I hope he goes to either Oakland, San Diego, Baltimore, or the Redskins. All 4 teams have moderate to good QBs which are going to probably be there for a while and will provide stability for Flash. He could grow into the position with a young crew in Oakland, or light it up with the bomb of an arm that Flacco has. In Washington I know they're possibly going to shed their 2 WRs, maybe trading them to the Browns instead could happen.
If he does leave the team I hope he goes to either Oakland, San Diego, Baltimore, or the Redskins. All 4 teams have moderate to good QBs which are going to probably be there for a while and will provide stability for Flash. He could grow into the position with a young crew in Oakland, or light it up with the bomb of an arm that Flacco has. In Washington I know they're possibly going to shed their 2 WRs, maybe trading them to the Browns instead could happen.
grateful zed
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Why would he care? If he takes Gordon in the 2nd round and he gets suspended again or has just lost it because he was out for basically 2 years then he was wrong on a pick. We all our wrong sometimes, plus it won't ruin his team. People miss on 1st round picks all of the time and still do well.
grateful zed
Footballguy
grateful zed
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
grateful zed
Footballguy
grateful zed
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
I get 1 point for every vague, uplifting statement on social media.
#1stroundpick
#1stroundpick
Chaka
Footballguy
That was a very positive tweet, I am glad to see that.
I wish my redraft was today and not in September which looks like it will be too late to get him for any kind of value.
