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2017 & 2018 Draft Prospects (Devy Thread) (1 Viewer)

D

DexterDew

Footballguy
Seems like a good time to start a separate thread for those with Devy drafts coming up. First of all, a shout out to Faust and ZWK for their threads and information they share/post!

I don't play in deep devy leagues (yet) so my cheat sheets are usually 40 or so players.

Right now I am following/researching/considering (this list is not comprehensive or even spelled correctly):

QB: Watson (Clemson), Rosen (UCLA)

TE: Engram (Ol Miss), Howard (ALA), Hodges (VA Tech), Blazevich (GA), Washington (LSU)

2017 Eligible RB: Fournette (LSU), Cook (FSU), Freeman (OR), Chubb (GA), McCaffrey (Stanford), Perine (OK), Hurd (TEN), Hood (UNC), Gallman (Clemson), Wilson (ARI), Michel (Georgia), Hunt (Toledo), Mixon (OK), Richard (ASU), Yearby (MIA), Mack (So FLA), Scarbrough (ALA), Clement (WISC)

2018 Eligible RB: Guice (LSU), Barkley (Penn St), Scott (MI St), Harris (Alabama), Gaskin (Wash), London (Miss St), Patrick (FSU), Jones III (USC), Adams (Notre Dame), Scarlett (FLA)

2017 Eligible WR: Dupree (LSU), Davis (W Mich), Williams (Clemson), JuJu (USC), Carrington (OR St), Ford (VA Tech), Scott (Clemson), Lazard (Iowa St), Washington (OK St), Cannon (Baylor), Malone (TEN), Rudolph (FSU), Lane (FSU), Noil (Texas AM), Lewis (Bowling Green)

2018 Eligible WR: Ridley (ALA), Irwin (Stanford), Lodge (Ol Miss), Kirk (Texas AM), Cain (Clemson), Gordon (GA), Boykins (Notre Dame), Williams (TEN), Johnson (LSU)

I personally am not enamored with the WR talent the next couple of years. I had a discussion with a fellow Devy owner about why I would draft Ridley despite his advanced age.

Feel free to bring up players I missed/over looked.

 
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I would like to make a request that we have a separate thread for 2017 draft prospects vs. one that focuses on 2017 and 2018 & beyond.

 
I see a ton of people really high on JuJu but I'm just not sure...don't love him. The top of my rankings is going to be very RB heavy I think.

My top 3 are probably Fournette, Cook, and McCaffery. Then maybe JuJu, although I'm not sold yet. Don't see any WR's I'd rank up with the top RB's.

Its a shame Chubb suffered the injury, hard to rank him not knowing how the recovery goes. He would be my top player if healthy.

 
JuJu seems solid, but not spectacular if that makes sense. I tend to prefer my devy WRs to either be more explosive or the "traditional" WR1 mold of 6'3" for RZ and contested ball abilities.

I agree that the RBs are the stars. Fournette is a beast. Cook is dynamic. McCaffery has his own thread (high praise around here), I like his ability but some of ZWK numbers suggest he may be the back in between the 20's.

Starting to really like Hurd. Seems to have good hands, which is a bonus for someone that big/fast.

 
USC RB Ronald Jones II is the next Jamaal Charles.

Jalen Hurd is really underrated.

Bo Scarbrough is going to be a beast this year.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
I see a ton of people really high on JuJu but I'm just not sure...don't love him. The top of my rankings is going to be very RB heavy I think.

My top 3 are probably Fournette, Cook, and McCaffery. Then maybe JuJu, although I'm not sold yet. Don't see any WR's I'd rank up with the top RB's.

Its a shame Chubb suffered the injury, hard to rank him not knowing how the recovery goes. He would be my top player if healthy.
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Who would you compare JuJu to? I just drafted him in Devy draft but honestly don't know much about him, just went with consensus.

Where would he rank if you put him in this years WR class?

 
It's easy to overhype future classes, but I think the 2017 RB class could be the best to come along in a very long time. Look at the names that will be eligible: Chubb, Fournette, Freeman, Perine, Cook, Hood, Mixon, and McCaffrey. That's already a deep group without factoring in some of the late round sleeper types.

I have the 1.01 dev pick in a league where everyone is available and I'm leaning towards Chubb despite the injury. While all of the guys above have their strengths, I just think he's on another level. There are a few ways it can go from here, but the examples of Gore/Gurley/McGahee suggest that bad college injuries don't have to influence a player's pro success much.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
I see a ton of people really high on JuJu but I'm just not sure...don't love him. The top of my rankings is going to be very RB heavy I think.

My top 3 are probably Fournette, Cook, and McCaffery. Then maybe JuJu, although I'm not sold yet. Don't see any WR's I'd rank up with the top RB's.

Its a shame Chubb suffered the injury, hard to rank him not knowing how the recovery goes. He would be my top player if healthy.
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Who would you compare JuJu to? I just drafted him in Devy draft but honestly don't know much about him, just went with consensus.

Where would he rank if you put him in this years WR class?
Click to expand...
He's kind of his own guy. Not as tall as a lot of the recent "big" WRs, but faster than some of the shorter ones like Crabtree and Boldin.

I would say he's probably a future top 15 NFL draft pick. I think I would take him over any 2016 WR.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
I see a ton of people really high on JuJu but I'm just not sure...don't love him. The top of my rankings is going to be very RB heavy I think.

My top 3 are probably Fournette, Cook, and McCaffery. Then maybe JuJu, although I'm not sold yet. Don't see any WR's I'd rank up with the top RB's.

Its a shame Chubb suffered the injury, hard to rank him not knowing how the recovery goes. He would be my top player if healthy.
Click to expand...
JuJu is an elite prospect. He has a lot of Justin Blackmon in him, with a much better head of course. One of the reasons people love JuJu is his age. With a November birthday, he'll be one of the youngest players ever to enter the NFL. His Rookie season, he won't turn 21 until November of that year.

 
Posted some thoughts on some of the fringe prospects in the devy draft thread. Copying and pasting below:

RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma - 5 star recruit from the 2014 class. Sat out the 2014 season with off-field stuff. 753 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and 28 catches splitting time with Perine this season. I don't like tall backs and he has some of the issues that most tall backs do, but he has good lower body strength and agility. Is he a great prospect? I think it's hard to peg his pro potential, but a relatively big back with hands and mobility seems like he could find a role. A really optimistic comparison would be LeVeon Bell, though Mixon isn't that heavy. He was the last name I eliminated before I took Gaskin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPRI_P4QJ6g

WR Courtland Sutton, SMU - Sutton ended up going at #14 and I definitely looked at him for my pick. He had 49 catches for 862 yards and 9 TDs this year as a redshirt freshman on a dreadful SMU team. Big frame at 6'4" 215 and can really go up and get the ball. He has some similarities with Kelvin Benjamin and Marques Colston. I don't know if his route running and movement are going to be on par with the NFL's best big receivers like Vincent Jackson and Demaryius Thomas, but he is an interesting name.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0CQOBXInic

TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma - Had some impressive plays this year as a redshirt freshman with 7 TDs on just 19 catches. Reminds me of a more athletic Zach Ertz and could be a nice value in TE premium leagues. I already have Eifert here and wasn't likely to go TE unless desperate due to the relatively low trade value of the position.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYwyatbEAgw

WR Shelton Gibson, West Virginia - Smallish WR with blazing speed (10.7 100m time in HS). Kind of a DeSean Jackson type. Averaged 24 yards per catch last season. An electric athlete, but he's not very big and he cradle catches the ball. In a deeper draft, I'd take a flyer. Couldn't justify it in a one round devy though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osLlQhGqlpY

WR KD Cannon, Baylor - Regressed statistically after breaking the 1000 yard barrier as a true freshman last season. Very fast. Not sure if he offers enough else, but my sense is that he may be a little undervalued after a somewhat quiet year. With Coleman gone, he should see an uptick in production next season and is likely to find his way to the NFL eventually.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCVQpDJWn4k

Also looked at Kareem Hunt and Boom Williams. Hunt has the size and production. Not really sold on his footwork or cutting, but I can see him having spurts of productivity in the NFL. Williams is a lot like Gaskin. Undersized with good moves and pretty good, but not great speed. He's a bit more of a strider though and didn't have the same volume of production, so he was lower on my board. Finally, I looked at the high school kids briefly. I've had mixed results with that population and wasn't going to roll the dice on another unless he ticked every box. The Clemson commit Tavien Feaster looks like he could be interesting, but I wasn't ready to use a pick on him yet.

 
EBF said:
Posted some thoughts on some of the fringe prospects in the devy draft thread. Copying and pasting below:

RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma - 5 star recruit from the 2014 class. Sat out the 2014 season with off-field stuff. 753 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and 28 catches splitting time with Perine this season. I don't like tall backs and he has some of the issues that most tall backs do, but he has good lower body strength and agility. Is he a great prospect? I think it's hard to peg his pro potential, but a relatively big back with hands and mobility seems like he could find a role. A really optimistic comparison would be LeVeon Bell, though Mixon isn't that heavy. He was the last name I eliminated before I took Gaskin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPRI_P4QJ6g

WR Courtland Sutton, SMU - Sutton ended up going at #14 and I definitely looked at him for my pick. He had 49 catches for 862 yards and 9 TDs this year as a redshirt freshman on a dreadful SMU team. Big frame at 6'4" 215 and can really go up and get the ball. He has some similarities with Kelvin Benjamin and Marques Colston. I don't know if his route running and movement are going to be on par with the NFL's best big receivers like Vincent Jackson and Demaryius Thomas, but he is an interesting name.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0CQOBXInic

TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma - Had some impressive plays this year as a redshirt freshman with 7 TDs on just 19 catches. Reminds me of a more athletic Zach Ertz and could be a nice value in TE premium leagues. I already have Eifert here and wasn't likely to go TE unless desperate due to the relatively low trade value of the position.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYwyatbEAgw

WR Shelton Gibson, West Virginia - Smallish WR with blazing speed (10.7 100m time in HS). Kind of a DeSean Jackson type. Averaged 24 yards per catch last season. An electric athlete, but he's not very big and he cradle catches the ball. In a deeper draft, I'd take a flyer. Couldn't justify it in a one round devy though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osLlQhGqlpY

WR KD Cannon, Baylor - Regressed statistically after breaking the 1000 yard barrier as a true freshman last season. Very fast. Not sure if he offers enough else, but my sense is that he may be a little undervalued after a somewhat quiet year. With Coleman gone, he should see an uptick in production next season and is likely to find his way to the NFL eventually.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCVQpDJWn4k

Also looked at Kareem Hunt and Boom Williams. Hunt has the size and production. Not really sold on his footwork or cutting, but I can see him having spurts of productivity in the NFL. Williams is a lot like Gaskin. Undersized with good moves and pretty good, but not great speed. He's a bit more of a strider though and didn't have the same volume of production, so he was lower on my board. Finally, I looked at the high school kids briefly. I've had mixed results with that population and wasn't going to roll the dice on another unless he ticked every box. The Clemson commit Tavien Feaster looks like he could be interesting, but I wasn't ready to use a pick on him yet.
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It's amazing how many times Sutton was under-thrown. I can only wondering how he would have performed if he had a have decent QB. Can't wait to see more of him..........I'm interested!

Tex

 
Phenomz Dynasty Draft Results:  1 college player per roster allowed, 14 teams, non-PPR, 1QB, 6 pts all TDs

Already rostered from last year's Draft: Leonard Fournette (LSU), Nick Chubb (Georgia), Samaje Perine (Oklahoma), Cory Clement (Wisconsin), Mike Williams (Clemson), Cory Davis (Western Michigan)

Noting picks before and after for relative value idea...

1.01: WR- Josh Doctson (Redskins)

1.02: WR- Corey Coleman (Browns)

1.03: RB- Dalvin Cook (Florida St.)

1.04: QB- Jared Goff (Rams)

---

1.09: WR- Sterling Shepard (Giants)

1.10: WR- JuJu Smith Schuster (USC)

1.11: TE- Austin Hooper (Falcons)

1.12: RB- Christian McCaffrey (Stanford)

1.13: WB- Paxton Lynch (Broncos)

1.14: RB- Paul Perkins (Giants)

2.01: QB- DeShaun Watson (Florida St.)

---

2.05: RB- Kenyan Drake (Dolphins)

2.06: RB- Royce Freeman (Oregon)

2.07: WR- Pharaoh Cooper (Rams)

2.08: RB- Tyler Ervin (Texans)

2.09: WR- Malcolm Mitchell (Patriots)

2.10: RB- Jalen Hurd (Tennessee)

2.11: RB- Keith Marshall (Redskins)

---

No college picks in 3rd round

---

4.08: RB- Josh Ferguson (Colts)

4.09: WR- Malachi Dupre (LSU)

4.10: TE- Thomas Duarte (Dolphins)

4.11: RB- Sony Michel (Georgia)

4.12: WR- Jeff Janis (Packers)

---

Notable undrafted college players (all true Sophs, so min. 2 yr wait)

- RB- Saquon Barkley (Penn St)

- RB- Myles Gaskin (Washington)

- RB- Bo Scarborough (Alabama)

 
Wow, some great value in that draft. JuJu was a steal and Barkley in the 3rd-4th would've been a tremendous value. People will really regret passing on him for dime-a-dozen prospects like Marshall and Ervin.

 
MIght as well make this a de facto Devy Draft thread since cross pollination is frowned up in the Shark Pool.

Our mid Feb one round only Devy Draft:

1.01 - JuJu Smith Schuster WR USC
1.02 - Saquon Barkley RB Penn St.
1.03 - Christian McCaffrey RB Stanford
1.04 - Calvin Ridley WR Alabama
1.05 - Christian (Captain) Kirk WR Texas A & M
1.06 - Elijah Hood RB UNC
1.07 - Damien Harris RB Alabama
1.08 - Mike Williams WR Clemson
1.09 - Myles Gaskin RB Washington
1.10 - Jalen Hurd RB TEN
1.11 - OJ Howard TE Alabama
1.12 - Deon Cain WR Clemson
1.13 - LJ Scott RB Michigan State
1.14 - Courtland Sutton WR SMU
1.15 - Travin Dural WR LSU
1.16 - Wayne Gallman RB Clemson

Already on rosters: Scarbrough, Dupree, Clement, C Davis, Chubb, Hodges, Guice, Gray, Perine, Merritt, Cook and Freeman.

 
Good stuff guys! Keep the draft posts coming. I have a startup rookie/devy draft beginning Tuesday. I'll post our draft when we get going. 

How do you guys value '18 devy guys like Barley/Guice to guys like Zeke, Dixon, Chubb, ect...? How do you factor in time cost? Does it matter? 

 
dipandglide said:
Good stuff guys! Keep the draft posts coming. I have a startup rookie/devy draft beginning Tuesday. I'll post our draft when we get going. 

How do you guys value '18 devy guys like Barley/Guice to guys like Zeke, Dixon, Chubb, ect...? How do you factor in time cost? Does it matter? 
Click to expand...
What is time cost?

Tex

 
Maybe that's the incorrect term..

What I want to know from you devy vets is how do I value a player like Barkley who's two years away from draft eligibility to a guy like Zeke? Chubb? Fournette? Does it matter much? 

 
dipandglide said:
Maybe that's the incorrect term..

What I want to know from you devy vets is how do I value a player like Barkley who's two years away from draft eligibility to a guy like Zeke? Chubb? Fournette? Does it matter much? 
Click to expand...


I would try to create tiers based on talent level and then use time to differentiate within that tier. In other words, Elliott being a "bird in hand" vetted prospect as a top 4 NFL draft pick would get the edge over guys with similar potential like Chubb and JuJu, but I would not pass on those college players for a second tier rookie like Michael Thomas or Sterling Shepard. That's because, in terms of career expectations, first round NFL talents are worth roughly twice 2nd-3rd round NFL talents on average. There's a huge incentive to monopolize those guys and it's typically a gross error to pass on them for a vastly inferior prospect who may be 1-2 years faster to make an impact. Taking a day three/UDFA player like Tyler Ervin or Josh Ferguson over a likely top 50-60 draft pick Saquon Barkley is the type of thing that has me smh. It's incredibly short-sighted and bad. 4-5 years of poor decisions like that will put you far behind other owners who are playing it smarter.

The catch is that not all college players who are touted as strong prospects end up being that. A year ago, some people thought Duke Williams from Auburn and DeRunnya Wilson from Mississippi State were good prospects. They were mistaken. For less flagrant examples, consider what happened to guys like Marqise Lee and Matt Barkley. They were mocked as first round picks going into their final college season, but when the draft came around, they had lost a lot of their shine. Even though I feel pretty confident about players like Chubb and JuJu being the real deal, there's always some latent risk with these college players who haven't been vetted by the draft process. That, along with the delayed time of impact, is why I'd almost always take a Zeke over a Chubb. Zeke has already been vetted as an elite NFL prospect whereas that's the most Chubb can aspire to become.

Speaking from years of experience, I think patience is a virtue in dynasty. I have taken a lot of flak in the past for being a youth-crazed owner, but most of my bad teams and bad trades have been a result of impatience rather than committing to a longview. When I have gotten impatient and gone against my gut to try to compete immediately, that's when I have typically made my worst decisions. When I have played it smart and bet on long-term value, it has usually worked better for me. In this case that would mean being willing to eat some useless years from players like S Barkley or JuJu for the greater long-term payoff rather than trying to turn water into wine right now with some mediocre NFL rookie.

 
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dipandglide said:
Maybe that's the incorrect term..

What I want to know from you devy vets is how do I value a player like Barkley who's two years away from draft eligibility to a guy like Zeke? Chubb? Fournette? Does it matter much? 
Click to expand...
I prefer the someone who could make a impact as soon as possible even when there maybe a better talented player a year behind the player that I drafted. 

For instance in our 2015 draft while players like Chubb and Fournette went off the board I drafted EZE who is draft eligible a year earlier (making a quicker impact on my team) than those two and I had him in the same tier  as them but ranked below only Chubb (EZE a better all around RB and more athletic than Fournette) yet higher than Fournette. Now, I plan to draft Cook who is in that same tier. 

So in two years I will have drafted two tier 1 players in EZE who will make an impact on my roster sooner rather than later and Cook while the owners of Chubb and Fournette have to wait at least two years before they can reap the rewards of drafting their player. So I get EZE and Cook while the other owners have to wait yet another year and hope Fournette and Chubb can make it through another season and when only carry one Devy player so they can't draft another player unless they trade for that player.

Last but not least, players that stay in college longer have a greater chance to get injured in college (Chubb) before they are able to make an impact on their team. So I want the player with equal or greater talent the is destined for the NFL the fastest.

Tex

 
Agree. I normally don't like to use/burn a roster spot for more than a year unless I believe the prospect is a Tier 1 stud (like Barkley or Guice) and have the room to carry. 

I use the same logic comparing rookies to college players. Personally, I would take Zeke over any college player since he is a more known quantity (vetted and validated by the draft process, plus known destination). Now if Chubb didn't get hurt, it would be a tougher decision.  

 
Just finished a combined rookie devy draft. 12 team super flex ppr. First round picks cannot be used on devy players and each team gets one devy right per year. I went big on a rebuild and acquired a ton of devy rights. Going into this draft Fournette, Chubb, C Davis and Mike Williams were already owned.

2.1   Juju

2.2   D Watson

2.3   S Barkley

2.4   D Cook (me)

2.5   M Dupre

2.6   C Mccaffrey (me)

2.7   J Rosen (me)

2.9   C Sutton (me)

2.11  D Guice (me)

3.11  C Ridley (me)

4.1   Roc Thomas

4.10  Brad Kaaya

SO this draft and my in season trades leaves me with Fournette, Davis, M Williams, Ridley, Guice, Sutton, Rosen, Mccaffrey, Cook 

 
Former Notre Dame RB Greg Bryant was shot and killed this weekend. Pretty sad story. He was one of the best RBs in his high school class. He had transferred to UAB and could've been a candidate to make an NFL roster someday.

 
Do any of you know of any tools that can compare devy pick value to rookie pick value? It's something that is tough to do on the surface and would appreciate some help if any of you devy guys know anything  :D

Who are your favorite '18, '19, '20 prospects? 

Would love to see any recent devy drafts as well. I'll post mine once they've finished up. 

 
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Didn't watch much football this year, so not too strong on the '19-'20 groups, but to your main question I think devy picks are a much more volatile commodity than rookie picks. Rookie drafts tend to be pretty paint-by-numbers since the NFL draft dictates the ADP to a large extent. You know that with a top 4-5 pick you are usually getting a first round RB/WR, and after that you're usually picking from QB/TE or 2nd-4th round RB/WR types for the next dozen picks or so, depending on depth. I put a very high value on top 2-3 rookie picks, although the bust rate is still pretty large. At least you know you're getting a guy who was vetted by the NFL as a strong prospect.

Dev leagues are more of a crapshoot. Although sometimes there are 1-2 guys who seem pretty can't-miss at the top, I'd say the value of the players is a little more fluid and subjective. I've seen guys like Mike Davis and De'Runnya Wilson go very high in dev leagues because at one point they were expected to be elite prospects. On the other hand, I've seen guys like Doug Martin and Corey Davis in the late first. There is less information available on dev picks, which means their value is a little less certain. If you are good at picking the right players, you can use that to your advantage by getting more steals and avoiding the duds. In general though, I'd say that top dev picks are worth less than top rookie picks, but that there's some potential to get steals deeper in the draft.

I would say that the 1.01-1.02 dev pick is probably comparable to the 1.04-1.06 rookie pick, with the caveat that I sometimes wouldn't make that trade depending on who specifically is available (for example, I wouldn't trade Barkley for the 1.01 rookie pick this year). Without actually crunching the numbers, my hunch is that devy picks in the 5-15 range are roughly worth a top 15-20 rookie pick. There is more potential for getting an outright flop, but also more potential for stealing somebody who ends up becoming a first round NFL draft pick.

 
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