POLL: Goff vs. Wentz - #1? (1 Viewer)

For the purposes of the poll, weight most heavily how they stack up respectively, based on inherent talent differences, also how you think their physical/athletic traits, skill set, game, scheme background and/or conceptual grasp will make them more or less likely to transition well/fast to the next level, conversely, weight less heavily what team they go to (LA, PHI) and which may be a better or worse scheme fit, as the latter can change.

In other words, if you think Goff is the best QB (or Wentz?), just assume again for the poll purpose that LA would take the same QB, regardless of what you might think about potential scheme fits/mismatches.

You could factor in age difference (2 years) or not, up to you, for me, I wonder if Goff has upside on the basis that he has two years of additional coaching until he is where Wentz is right now (of course, Wentz will be two more years advanced, too, just a two year old version - one point being, if you think they can play 10+ years, the two year gap may not be a critical deciding factor). 

Trying to get at, more of a pure perceived talent level difference measure (if any, it could end up pretty close, each has strengths and weaknesses).

Feel free to citing reasons for choosing one or the other QB prospect.

I prefer Goff, but think Wentz is a good prospect, too. I expect Goff to be picked first overall by LA in the actual NFL draft, and will be a little disappointed if he isn't the pick, but won't be that surprised, or disappointed if Wentz is the choice.

Goff. From everything I've heard he's the more accurate passer. I believe that is the most important trait IMO.

Additional thoughts on Goff (cross-posted from Rams thread):

Great pocket presence, peripheral vision, feet quickness and innate ability to avoid the pass rush (Marino was a master of this, Montana was very good, not saying he is those guys, just looking for ELEMENT parallels). Coupled with great anticipation and ability to throw WRs open, which are natural and instinctive, and imo the majority of pro QBs NEVER quite get, a key factor that separates average from good/great at the next level. These are two of the most KEY translatable to the NFL skills in his arsenal and parts of his game.

Doesn't have a cannon, but more than sufficient, can make almost all the same throws Manning, Brady, Brees became great through, that only a handful of QBs around the league are better at. Tough, stands in the pocket without wilting, facing a withering pass rush happened a lot at Cal (1-11 as Freshman), so he had occasion to practice this a lot.  Mobile, not looking to scramble like Wilson, but buys time, can extend the play and keeps his eyes downfield. Unruffled and calm, a still point even in the center of the cyclone (i.e. - pass rush), has kind of a "silent assassin" relief pitcher personality/behavior, doesn't get too high or low. Like Wentz, intangibles are said to be off the charts, tireless and relentless worker, perfectionist, smart, leader, coachable, squeaky clean off the field.

I just think he processes the defensive tableaux more instantly, impressive given that he has three years at Cal and Wentz five years at NDSU. If his ability is more Montana-LIKE at this stage (again, for the overly literal-challenged among us, not saying he IS Montana, just looking for similar ASPECTS to his game), maybe he always will? It could be a deep, fundamental advantage divide, a genetic, nervous system, reflex/reaction-level superiority he will be able to leverage his entire career?

Wentz is more book smart, but imo Goff better at translating what he knows from the board to instinctively read and react to what he sees on the field in real time, make quicker decisions and using his quick release to deliver the ball accurately, with touch, on time even when under duress and needing to employ multiple throwing platforms and alternative launch points. While point taken Wentz had more of a pro scheme background and training, and Goff came from the spread, Goff still does some things better like look off DBs, flashing a maturity, sophistication and advanced understanding of important next level passing game concepts arguably unmatched by his peers and counterparts in this class (I value an above the neck savant like Manning, Brady and Brees more than a below the neck Roethlisberger-like physical specimen and athletic prodigy - not to say I don't like that a lot, TOO, just not as much).

He also has beautiful footwork, balance and consistent passing mechanics, which bodes well at the next level.

* 56/1 stat (TD/INT ratio in the red zone, 37 starts since 2013) roars off the page.

And the comps spit out by Football Outsiders 2016 QBASE historical/stat model are vastly superior offering more promising projections (see above)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016

THE DIME - highlight
[espn.go.com]

I prefer Goff because he's good enough to be the game manager (in a good way) a team with Gurley and that defense needs. 

Bucky Brooks made a salient, incisive point about Goff, regarding a complex of traits Waldman has also described as boding well, potentially auguring, prefiguring NFL success - having his eyes/brain/feet connected or integrated. It may sound deceptively easier than it is.

2016 NFL Draft: Goff or Wentz? Seeking a QB with basic instinct

Greg Cosell's draft preview: Jared Goff's strengths and flaws

Greg Cosell's draft preview: Carson Wentz's valid Andrew Luck comp


 

I like Goff.

1. He had good (though not spectacular) stats, by my metrics.

2. Stats-focused websites like PFF and Football Outsiders like him.

3. I was impressed by his pocket presence in the games I watched - he seemed to do a good job of keeping his attention downfield & always being ready to throw, while also being aware of the pass rush and moving around in the pocket to buy time & space

4. The things that he's getting praised for, like progressing quickly through his reads and throwing with anticipation, are skills that strike me as particularly important for NFL QBs (moreso than the flashier things that many QBs get praised for)

5. He threw 58 mph at the combine, among the faster times on record, which countered what had been my biggest concern about him (arm strength)

Negatives: his stats are not spectacular (I have his 2015 season as the 47th best QB season since 2008). Some people have raised concerns about his accuracy, which is one of the most important attributes in a quarterback, and I noticed some issues with his ball placement on short throws in the games that I watched. He is on the thin side, and his hands are on the small side - I think that both of those measurements do matter somewhat for QBs.

I have bigger concerns about Wentz. His passing stats don't stand out as spectacular despite his second-rate competition and dominant team. His passing stats were actually fairly similar to the numbers put up by his backup, freshman Easton Stick, in the games that Wentz missed. He struggled under pressure. Reports are that he was slow at progressing through his reads. Football Outsiders is pessimistic about him. In his favor, a lot of scouts apparently like him, PFF is pretty high on him, he threw 57 mph at the combine, and he had a pretty good excuse for attending an FCS school.

Wentz didn't struggle under pressure.  Pressure is defined as how they play in big games late with the game on the line.  Wentz had 3 fourth quarter comebacks in the 2014 playoffs.  How a QB performs when hit isn't a good measure of "playing under pressure".

Wentz excels under pressure.

Let's say Wentz has sllightly worse stats when getting hit compared to other QBs.  That's pretty straightforward to fix.  Get him good protection.  On the other hand, if a QB rises to the challenge of a big game late and excels in the 4th quarter, you cannot teach that.  You must draft that. That and his cannon arm.  Can't teach that either.  

If the Rams take a QB...where will Nick Foles play this season?  <_<

Brendon1215 said:

If the Rams take a QB...where will Nick Foles play this season?  <_<

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DEN and NYJ are mentioned the most as needing a QB. NYJ changes if they re-sign Fitzpatrick. DEN would be interesting as he would be "reunited" with Sanchez.

Reid drafted him, and lost backup Daniels to new PHI HC Pederson (from KC).

Hopefully LA can recoup some draft capital from Foles (though his salary may complicate that, low for a starter but high for a reserve), and possibly Tre Mason.     

Bob Magaw said:

DEN and NYJ are mentioned the most as needing a QB. NYJ changes if they re-sign Fitzpatrick. DEN would be interesting as he would be "reunited" with Sanchez.

Reid drafted him, and lost backup Daniels to new PHI HC Pederson (from KC).

Hopefully LA can recoup some draft capital from Foles (though his salary may complicate that, low for a starter but high for a reserve), and possibly Tre Mason.     

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NYJ would be silly to not re-sign Fitzpatrick seeing how solid QB's are so few and far between. 

Riversco said:

Wentz didn't struggle under pressure.  Pressure is defined as how they play in big games late with the game on the line.  Wentz had 3 fourth quarter comebacks in the 2014 playoffs.  How a QB performs when hit isn't a good measure of "playing under pressure".

Wentz excels under pressure.

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Kind of like the Hindu parable about the three blind men and the elephant, it is rare that something can be universally defined in just one way.

Both definitions are probably fair. He gets lauded for his clutch come from behind wins. Some stat-based approaches have dinged him for situational (under duress) inaccuracy.

Of course, pressure does have multiple meanings, both a late, close game sense, but also the pass rush variant. They are both important.

If he is inaccurate when blitzed, what will happen? DCs will blitz more. However you want to characterize that, or frame it as a good measure or not, that could be problematic.

Riversco said:

Let's say Wentz has sllightly worse stats when getting hit compared to other QBs.  That's pretty straightforward to fix.  Get him good protection.  On the other hand, if a QB rises to the challenge of a big game late and excels in the 4th quarter, you cannot teach that.  You must draft that. That and his cannon arm.  Can't teach that either.  

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Sometimes that can be harder in practice than theory. If it were easy, every team would have great QB protection.

I've seen some situational stats but didn't commit them to memory. When you say "slightly", how did he fare compared to other top QB prospects (such as Goff, Lynch, Cook, Hackenberg and Prescott)?

It is hard to evaluate, say Goff and Wentz head to head, because they had such dramatically different contexts.

Wentz sat for three years (as ZWK noted, correctly, imo, he did have a good excuse). In Goff's three years, he became the first true Freshman starting QB in Cal history (a school with a tradition of NFL QBs, including former #1 Steve Bartkowski, and Aaron Rodgers is one of the best in the game, clearly SHOULD have been #1 in retrospect). He elevated the program by four wins in his second year and another three in his third (1-5-8). He also broke many school and some conference passing records as a Junior (I don't want to attribute to much significance to this, as so did fellow Pac-12 QBs like Matt Barkley and Sean Mannion, who haven't exactly set the league on fire).

If you had a time machine, what would Wentz's record have been at Cal in 2013, if instead of sitting for three years, he played as a Freshman? Something like 1-11? I think their defense gave up like 40 PPG (how about NDSU), and still 30 PPG as recently as 2015? For that matter, even if Wentz had sat for three years (like he did at NDSU), would he have fared much better with a defense giving up 40 PPG? Flip the script and reverse roles, how would Goff have done playing for a team coming off three straight national championships? Would he have had more game winning opportunities to convert, and be generally viewed as more of a "winner"? If Wentz was 1-11 at Cal, would he be viewed as less of a "winner" (I didn't "vet" the stat, but read NDSU was 5-2 with him and 8-0 without him this season, which MAY have been an artifact of opponent quality, didn't break that down on a game by game basis, nonetheless, no way Cal is 8-5 this year without Goff). It is kind of complicated, some of these questions are unanswerables, one reason scouting is so difficult.

To flip this around, Goff was somewhat hardened in a good way by the adversity, he seems to have emerged stronger from the experience. Wentz may be facing adversity he never has (though he will go to a seven win team either way and has a leg up on Winston, Mariota and may of the other highly drafted, top 2 overall QBs drafted since the merger). 

My feeling about cannons, if they are attached to a head like Manning, Brady and Brees, all the better. Otherwise, they are a living embodiment and proof of concept that it isn't necessary to thrive and flourish in the NFL (don't get me wrong, you need a minimum standard, I think Chad Pennington had a weak arm, which may have gotten worse with the cumulative toll of shoulder injuries, which enabled opposing defenses to crowd short/intermediate routes, and limited the Jets playbook - but Goff is nothing like that). Does Philip Rivers have a good enough arm? Radar clocking guns aren't the only measure (clearly Wentz has an impressive arm, you can see it is stronger on deep throws from comparing combine and pro day footage, scouts such as Bucky Brooks who attended in person have described the ball making a whooshing sound when it rockets out of his hand, the only QB I heard him make that observation about - though Lynch also said to have a cannon), but I think Goff's number was slightly higher, near 60 mph (58 vs. 57?). Goff can make pretty much all the throws he will need to at the next level, Wentz will have advantages on the type of throws like deep outs and across the field 30-40 yards on a rope. But Goff can compensate if he sees the field and looks off DBs better, has superior pass rush evasion skills (Marino and Montana were naturals and very good at this), ability to reset his feet faster, a quicker release and superior anticipation and instinctive "throwing WRs open" skills, a very NFL translatable constellation of physical traits, mental attributes and elite intangibles - virtually EVERYBODY in the scouting process has come away stating they are both high character, hard working, team players, coachable, smart, competitive, natural leaders that players and coaches gravitate to and squeaky clean off the field.       

A very LOOSE comparison, mind you, not intended to be taken too literally:

Goff is like a computer with faster processing speed (translating what he knows onto the field and making quicker decisions). As long as he has sufficient RAM and programming, it could give him a decisive edge in performance.

Wentz has a massive cache of football knowledge. As long as his processor isn't too much of a bottleneck, some day he may be positioned to leverage that greater knowledge (Manning was a pretty smart guy, same with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson).  

* Add - In theory, it is a more straightforward, easier path for me to see how Goff can learn a lot more (remember, Wentz was a fifth year player in 2015, Goff just third, we will need to wait two years, this time 2018, just to fairly compare Goff with where Wentz is NOW). That said, I can allow for the possibility Wentz has some kind of freakish memory and play retention, and will always be superior and have an edge THERE, in that department? What is harder for me, is to see how Wentz can process appreciably faster (Goff's film reveals a large body of work in which he demonstrably has this skill). I think as he learns the playbook, and gets acclimated to the greater speed, athleticism and talent of the NFL, the game will slow down for him.

But that isn't what I'm referring to. Once that adjustment has been made, equalized and accounted for, Goff just looks like he has quicker reflexes and faster reactions. People like Marino and Montana (Manning, Brady, et al) that were great at this, may have just had a superior genetic advantage at a latent nervous system level, which becomes manifest, tangible and explicit when they are on the field. You can SEE the difference.

I'm not sure how realistic it is to expect that Wentz can speed up his internal clock substantially and significantly (at a deep level, referring to reflexes, reactions, the mechanics of consciousness) and close that gap relative to Goff?

Throw The Ball To The Open WR.

In the end, after all the talk about scheme differences, experience, etc., that is ultimately what it is about.

Goff has some translatable skills, so does Wentz, they are just different.

Kind of according to the principle of how it is hard to hit a target if you don't have a target or even know what you are trying to hit, there is no perfect QB buyers guide or owner's manual (any more than there is for being a human) that Paul Brown and Sid Luckman "misplaced" a long time ago, no handy dandy conversion chart or secret decoder ring.

Not really a systematic, hierarchy of universally accepted traits and attributes, such as which are the most important, take precedence, should be considered more foundational and fundamental. There is a loosely connected body of thought more akin to folk lore than science.

How could it be otherwise, when so much of what differentiates good and bad QBs (between say a Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf) is between the ears, and much of that is hidden and even invisible to us. Psychology (emotional, mental, behavioral), relative to other sciences, is in its relative infancy. Same with neurology, the anatomical, physiological roots and underpinnings of consciousness, cognitive processes, personality, attitude, etc., are still largely a complete mystery to us. Supposedly there are something like 2 billion neurons, EACH with on the order of 10,000 synaptic connections. If we were to think of this as components in a computer 2 billion to the ten thousandth power is a number larger than there are atoms in the known universe (i.e. - a finite, but rather large number).

I've thought for a while scouting combines science and "art", for lack of a better word. Clearly there is a level of more blunt instrument-type, rudimentary measuring. Not maligning the info, that is very important. If you are 100 lbs., you probably aren't playing NT. If you run a 5.5 40, that pretty much precludes playing WR. Not too many 7'0" tall RBs.  No 700 lb. former Sumo wrestler FB-conversions. You get the picture. While there is wiggle room and range between positional prototypes, push far enough, and there is push back, revealing the contours of a real landscape and probability space. But the point being, any child could use a measuring stick or time a 40, and compare them on that basis.

Far trickier is trying to measure relative intangible superiority. And that reflects the reality that the objects (human brains, minds, behavior) under investigation and studied by psychology are more complex than that studied by physics (rocks, to simplify). Since Galileo did precise, controlled scientific measurements with balls rolling down incline planes, and discovered large and small bodies fall at the same rate, I'm not sure there is a lot more to be learned about that particular subject.

Whereas in the case of psychology, there is probably vastly, immensely more that we DON'T know in that body of knowledge, relative to what we do know?
 

I'm hoping the Rams take Wentz so I don't have to read Tolstoy novels in Goff threads forever.

Goff pass good. 

He will be #1, because of course he will.

Bob Magaw said:

Of course, pressure does have multiple meanings, both a late, close game sense, but also the pass rush variant. They are both important.

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I think 4th quarter performance is much more important.  I think the performance when pressured by the rush isn't really a big issue.

Agree to disagree then. Respectfully, whoever he goes to won't be coming off five straight Super Bowl wins.

If increased pass rush pressure leads to increased inaccuracy at the next level, that could correlate to fewer meaningful fourth quarter performances. If blitzing decreases his accuracy, DCs may be inclined to blitz more.    

So it could be somewhat of a moot point if the thing that is "more important" doesn't happen as much because the thing that is "less important".  More drives killed and less points scored translates to less close game opps. I'm not saying it will happen, or even that it is likely. Just that I wouldn't completely discount the possibility pressure can be a problem for QBs transitioning from college to the NFL. Some more than others. And it does intensify relative to college. I like Wentz. IMO he has many qualities to recommend him. Situational inaccuracy isn't one of them, for me. I get that you are less concerned about it. Maybe you will be right. We will know a lot more in a few years. Meanwhile, some have to make decisions long before than, so need to employ instinct.

Riversco said:

Wentz didn't struggle under pressure.  Pressure is defined as how they play in big games late with the game on the line.  Wentz had 3 fourth quarter comebacks in the 2014 playoffs.  How a QB performs when hit isn't a good measure of "playing under pressure".

Wentz excels under pressure.

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I meant that Wentz struggled on plays where the pass rush got close to him. PFF said of Wentz:

He attempted just eight passes this season after breaking the pocket, and only completed one of them. It lost yards. When pressured generally his completion percentage dropped from 70.1 to 42.6 and his NFL passer rating dropped almost thirty five points.

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I was not talking about Wentz's performance in big-time games or situations. I think that there is less to learn about a prospect by focusing on his big-time games & situations, because that typically involves reading a lot into a small sample of data. There is also a tendency to judge a quarterback based on results which were not under his control.

Thanks for the data.

1/8 isn't good (actually pretty bad), but small sample group. What about 2014?

It sounds like he either throws a lot more in the pocket, takes off and runs or hands off. It would be even more interesting imo to look for a similar pattern (or not) of variance in accuracy correlated to pressure-type data, for the much larger passing FROM the pocket numbers, as opposed to the relatively far fewer instances when he passes while breaking containment and is playing out of structure.

From year to year in the NFL, franchise QBs can have poor numbers under pressure.  I think a few years ago Drew Brees was dead last in completion percentage under pressure, then he rebounded.  Tom Brady was dead last once recently I think but he rebounded.  

Its not a stat I worry about.

If he is as good as Brady or Brees, there probably won't be any reason to.

Cross-posted from Eagles thread (not my scouting report), detailed breakdown of Goff and Wentz's respective strengths and weaknesses  

Goff
Strengths:

• Great accuracy and touch on passes to all levels of the field. Will hit the strike zone consistently. Can drop the ball in the bucket on deep passes. Puts the ball in the correct spot for YAC. Doesn't throw with more velocity than is needed. Consistently throws the ball in a way to protect his WRs when possible.
  
• Outstanding pocket presence, movement, and poise under pressure. He's truly Luck caliber in his ability to maneuver the pocket, buy time, and find or create throwing lanes as a college passer. He has active, quick feet which allow him to set and reset quickly when moving and get the ball out in an instant. Dealt with a lot of pressure due to having a poor performing OL and constantly threw with defenders in his face or after he was forced off his spot.
  
• Top tier mental processing speed through his progressions and reads. Quick-minded player who can move through full-field reads with speed. Consistently can get to his 3rd or 4th progression when needed even when under fire. Rarely locks onto WRs. He also throws with great anticipation. He understands how to throw a WR open and how throws should be timed.
  
• Tough SOB. He took a beating throughout his career at Cal due to his OL and due to the team's lack of success. His defense was consistently one of the worst in the NCAA and forced Goff into shootouts. They went 1-11 his freshman year and 5-7 his sophomore year. Goff kept it together, never got discouraged, and helped Cal go 8-5 in his junior year. Some will blame Goff for his team not winning more but Cal's offense actually ranked 11th in points per game with 38.2 points per game scored his sophomore year...the problem was that their defense gave up 39.8 points per game. His junior year, the offense performed similarly with 37.8 points per game ranking 17th in the NCAA but the defense improved to allowing only 30.7 points per game which accounted for the team winning 8 games instead of 5. For those who knock Goff for not winning more, I have to wonder how a QB can compensate for a defense that allows nearly 40 points per game. Even Drew Brees has struggled to get New Orleans over the hump when their defense is among the worst in the NFL.
  
• Excellent intangibles. I have heard nothing but good things about Goff's work ethic, film habits, personality, leadership, and character. He's not an outgoing and outwardly confident at Wentz but Goff is the type of kid who is the first in and the last out by all reports and is popular among teammates. Goff was also responsible for running his offense at the LOS and received more responsibility at the LOS from his OC than any other QB who played under him.
  
• Checks all the physical boxes. Goff is 6'4" 215 with solid mobility, awesomely quick feet, and an above average arm. His hands are meet the minimum criteria in terms of size. And he's never missed a start due to an injury although he did suffer a separated shoulder in the last game of his freshman year at Cal.
  
• Great decision-maker. Goff is a lot like Peyton Manning in how you'd classify him. He's not a true gunslinger or a true game manager. He mixes elements of both but leans a tad more towards the gunslinger side of the coin. He's never shied away from testing tight coverage, he will take shots down the field, and he has a tremendous amount of confidence in his ability to fit throws into tight windows.
  
• Quick, natural release. Goff gets the ball out quickly and efficiently.
  

Weaknesses:

• Goff has a skinny frame and his hands are smaller than you'd like. He had some issues with fumbles during his career although it did seem to improve in his final year at Cal. There are some concerns that his frame will lead to durability issues in the NFL. It's possible.
  
• Goff will occasionally short-arm passes that he rushes which leads to inaccuracy. He also has some stretches of inconsistency when teams are able to throw him off his rhythm. He's definitely a rhythm passer. When he's on, he's lethal but he does have some stretches in games where he's off.
  
• Goff's arm is above average but it isn't elite. He won't be able to make some of the intermediate to deep sideline throws with zip at the NFL level against tight coverage. But there's a possibility that his arm strength will increase as he adds weight and physically matures.
  
• Goff can be fooled by underneath zone defenders at times which has led to interceptions. Will also force some passes knowing there is a risk of interception. Washington State got him once using a Cover-2 Trap. Goff went after the trap a few others times in the game and got away with it. He's definitely a guy who will take some risks.
  
• Hasn't had many big moments in his career. Cal hasn't been a contender and Goff hasn't had to make many drives in big, close games. He did it this year against Arizona State but it wasn't a game on a big stage.
  
• Goff played in an Air Raid variant so taking drops under center and learning a NFL playbook and NFL verbiage will be new to him.
  

Overall:

• Frankly, Goff doesn't have a lot of true weaknesses. He has some attributes that aren't strengths but they're more neutral than weaknesses. He's a polished passer who is extremely adept mentally and a great pure thrower. I've been smitten with him for over a year. Some will say that he resembles Bradford. And he does. He looks like college Bradford. Skinny kid who is a great pure thrower. But he's so much more advanced in the pocket than Bradford was. I hate to throw around this comparison but he really reminds me of Peyton Manning. Manning is the best QB I've seen play the game and one of my favorite players of all time so I don't throw that comparison around lightly. But he has feet, instincts, and movement in the pocket that are like Manning. And his coach even discusses how Goff studied Manning's feet and mannerisms in the pocket. What I see in Goff is a guy who I think will realistically pan out like Philip Rivers.(I can't say he'll pan out like Manning...it's just not fair to any player to expect that) He's not a dead-on comparison for Rivers as they have different body types, throwing motions, and demeanors. However, like Rivers, Goff has great movement and feel in the pocket, he is highly effective throwing vertically despite not possessing an elite arm, and he's a highly intelligent guy with a great feel for the game. I was reading an article where Goff was describing his thought process on a series of plays. He explained how he recognized that Stanford was playing a Cover-2, anticipated that their CB would not abandon his assignment to jump the underneath route because of his inexperience, and then showed a video of him making a perfect throw into the window created by the Stanford CB carrying the outside WR up the field rather than abandoning the assignment to jump the route the slot WR ran. Then Goff explained that the next time they ran that play in the same game, he expected the CB to not play the outside WR quite as tightly due to being burned once. Due to this, Goff threw the same route but released the ball a tick earlier and threw it to his WR's back hip to keep the CB from being able to jump the route, and then they showed the video of the throw being put on his WR's back hip a split second sooner and the CB trying to jump the route but failing because the ball was on the other side of the WR. What's my point here? Goff combines all the things you look for in a great QB into one skill-set. He's highly intelligent, he's deadly accurate, he has outstanding work habits, and he has amazing instincts in the pocket. I think he's a #1 overall caliber player and if we draft him, we'll win at least one Super Bowl with him as a our QB. You can bookmark this thread if you think that comment is too "optimistic."
  

Wentz
Strengths:

• Wentz is the most physically talented passer since Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. We're talking about a 6'5" 235 pound QB with good mobility and a rifle for an arm. The day he steps onto the NFL field, he'll have one of the strongest arms in the NFL. This is a kid who can make any throw you ask him to. There is no throw off limits in an offense. You want a 15 yard out route from the opposite hash? He'll make the throw. You want a 60 yard hail mary bomb? He'll make the throw. He's got an unreal arm. We're talking Kaepernick, Newton, Cutler, Rodgers tier arm here.
  
• Wentz is a very accurate passer with the potential to be even more accurate in the future. He will make a lot of throws that make your jaw-drop because of his arm strength/accuracy combination. I saw him make throws to intermediate comebacks where the CB was blanketing the WR. I saw him make a throw down the seam that dropped perfectly between 3 defenders to his WR. And despite his arm strength, the touch is there. He'll put some mustard on shorter throws when the window is tight but he knows when to take something off the ball. And he needs to make a tough throw, he will. People have a far more negative impression of his deep ball than they should because he throws it with such good touch. He has slow WRs so he airs the ball out to allow them to adjust to it and make plays rather than trying to throw lasers that they won't be able to run under. People think that his deep ball will hang at times but it's by design. I've seen him throw passes 55 yards in the air on a line.
  
• Wentz's instincts in the pocket are good. He feels pressure, he reacts, and he does his best to escape pressure. Wentz doesn't drop his eyes. He doesn't get happy feet. He doesn't fear being hit. He has a good feel for pressure and knows when to get rid of the ball. He has great poise and composure in the pocket.
  
• Wentz is a great runner who is a legitimate threat to take off and pick up big chunks of yardage if the defense doesn't respect his legs. He isn't Kaepernick or RGIII fast but he has good vision, good agility, and is fearless (too much so, frankly).
  
• Wentz is an outstanding decision-maker who rarely forces balls into coverage. He will not hesitate to take risks or take shots down the field but he's not a guy who takes unjustifiable risks. And when he does take risks, he generally puts the ball in a spot where only his guy will make a play.
  
• Wentz's intelligence and intangibles are top notch. People have been raving about his work habits, leadership, intelligence, and character. He's the type of guy that NFL evaluators dream of at QB. He's a good ole boy who speaks with confidence, commands respect, studies hard in the classroom and the film room, and behaves himself off the field. Type of kid who is the first one in the building and the last to leave. And I've heard rumors that he has an insanely good memory and ability to retain information.
  
• Wentz played in a pro style run-first system that has a lot of similarities to the offense that the Rams currently run. He used verbiage similar to the verbiage used in the pros. He's a very pro ready player mentally and was responsible for running his pro style offense at the LOS (this included calling protections). Wentz made full-field reads, went through progressions with speed, and threw NFL routes.
  
• Wentz played in plenty of big moments and made a number of big time plays and big time drives in those games. There's no question of whether he can handle pressure or "clutch" situations. This is a kid who led a come from behind game winning drive with less than 2 minutes left down 4 in the FCS National Championship game during his first year as a starter. In the big moments, Wentz will step up.
  

Weaknesses:

• Wentz's lower body mechanics need a lot of refinement. Like Jameis Winston, he plays with too wide of a throwing base which constantly forces him to set and reset when he's forced off his spot and wastes precious time before he throws trying to get himself in a proper base. Wentz also is very inconsistent with his pocket movement. He flashes it from time to time but allows his feet to die too often in the pocket. He's got to keep his feet active and keep moving or he'll be a sitting duck in the NFL. He received consistent protection at NDSU from a talented OL so he was able to get away with picking a spot and staying there a lot of the time. Wentz's feet are also not as agile and light as Goff's.
  
• Wentz needs to be more deceptive with his eyes. He locks onto WRs at times and can get tunnel vision. He's definitely behind Goff in this category as Goff does a great job of moving defenders with his eyes and keeping from locking onto targets. Wentz got away with it in college because he has such a cannon for an arm but he needs to be more consistent using his eyes to move defenders or NFL defenders will pick on him as a rookie.
  
• Wentz needs to do a better job of protecting the ball when he runs and protecting himself. He took a lot of unnecessary hits at NDSU and ended up breaking his wrist due to that. He also fumbled quite a bit when he took off and ran. We can't have either of those things in the NFL because both are easily preventable.
  
• Wentz doesn't move as quickly and seamlessly through his progressions as Goff does. He'll lock onto WRs from time to time and be late to his second or third progression. But this is understandable as he has a lot less starting experience.
  
• Wentz played at the FCS level so he didn't perform against anywhere near the level of athletes he'll be facing at the NFL. That all said, he still threw against plenty of tight windows due to how unathletic his WRs were.
  

Overall:

• Wentz has bigger questions and is less polished than Goff. He's got some mechanical issues in his lower body that he'll have to work through although he did show significant improvement during the Senior Bowl and pre-draft process as a whole. However, Wentz is incredibly physically gifted and has all the requisite attributes needed to be great. He has the instincts and mental acuity. I don't see anything lacking in his skill-set aside from the correctable issues that I discussed above. He does have some similarities to Bradford in that he's not as fleet-footed as Goff in the pocket and didn't have to develop great pocket movement in college due to his protection but I think he has a better feel for pressure than Bradford did coming out and is more poised under pressure. Wentz's ceiling is sky high and he's a great fit for a run first offense. Especially one that wants to throw vertically. Wentz needs to protect himself in the NFL in order to stay healthy. Some people compare him to Big Ben but I don't really see the same game there. Ben is such a strong guy and unwilling to go down. Wentz doesn't have the same strength and tackle-breaking ability in the pocket. Personally, I think he's more like a young Carson Palmer. People may scoff at that who don't remember Palmer when he was younger before the catastrophic knee injury but Palmer actually ran a 4.65 40 coming out of college. My personal opinion is that, despite Wentz's athleticism, he shouldn't be used as a runner in the NFL. Like Palmer, he has the ability to be a great pocket passer. Develop him as a passer and protect him from injuries. If he has a seam, he can certainly run. Just make sure he knows to get down and protect himself. Wentz has some similarities to Bortles although I think he's more mentally polished than Bortles was. Ultimately though, I think he has Favre-caliber throwing ability. He doesn't have the gunslinger mindset that Favre has but he has that caliber of an arm and movement skills. I fully expect Wentz to be a top 10 QB in the NFL once he develops. One thing I loved reading about Wentz was the breakdown of the game winning TD he threw against Northern Iowa. In Wentz's first year as a starter, Northern Iowa kicked NDSU's ###. You knew Wentz wanted to get revenge. Northern Iowa got after Wentz and hit him a lot in that game. Wentz threw his first two INTs of the season in that game because their defense was playing so well. One of them was simply a bad decision under pressure. Down 4 with less than 2 minutes, Wentz drove NDSU almost 80 yards. On his final play, Wentz recognized that the defense was in Cover-1 man and recognized the blitz they were bringing so he changed the protection and audibled the play to take advantage of the match-up of his slot WR on the LB. Wentz threw a slot fade that the FS in Cover-1 couldn't get to and the LB covering the slot WR wasn't in position to defend for the game winning TD. It was equally impressive that he recognized the coverage early enough to change the concept and the blitz to change the protection as well as him also having the confidence to change the play and the protection in that sort of situation (45 seconds left in the game down by 4 just inside the red-zone). I think Wentz is every bit worth being the #2 pick and I expect whoever takes him will end up being very happy with him.
  

Bob Magaw said:

Cross-posted from Eagles thread (not my scouting report), detailed breakdown of Goff and Wentz's respective strengths and weaknesses  

Goff
Strengths:

• Great accuracy and touch on passes to all levels of the field. Will hit the strike zone consistently. Can drop the ball in the bucket on deep passes. Puts the ball in the correct spot for YAC. Doesn't throw with more velocity than is needed. Consistently throws the ball in a way to protect his WRs when possible.
  
• Outstanding pocket presence, movement, and poise under pressure. He's truly Luck caliber in his ability to maneuver the pocket, buy time, and find or create throwing lanes as a college passer. He has active, quick feet which allow him to set and reset quickly when moving and get the ball out in an instant. Dealt with a lot of pressure due to having a poor performing OL and constantly threw with defenders in his face or after he was forced off his spot.
  
• Top tier mental processing speed through his progressions and reads. Quick-minded player who can move through full-field reads with speed. Consistently can get to his 3rd or 4th progression when needed even when under fire. Rarely locks onto WRs. He also throws with great anticipation. He understands how to throw a WR open and how throws should be timed.
  
• Tough SOB. He took a beating throughout his career at Cal due to his OL and due to the team's lack of success. His defense was consistently one of the worst in the NCAA and forced Goff into shootouts. They went 1-11 his freshman year and 5-7 his sophomore year. Goff kept it together, never got discouraged, and helped Cal go 8-5 in his junior year. Some will blame Goff for his team not winning more but Cal's offense actually ranked 11th in points per game with 38.2 points per game scored his sophomore year...the problem was that their defense gave up 39.8 points per game. His junior year, the offense performed similarly with 37.8 points per game ranking 17th in the NCAA but the defense improved to allowing only 30.7 points per game which accounted for the team winning 8 games instead of 5. For those who knock Goff for not winning more, I have to wonder how a QB can compensate for a defense that allows nearly 40 points per game. Even Drew Brees has struggled to get New Orleans over the hump when their defense is among the worst in the NFL.
  
• Excellent intangibles. I have heard nothing but good things about Goff's work ethic, film habits, personality, leadership, and character. He's not an outgoing and outwardly confident at Wentz but Goff is the type of kid who is the first in and the last out by all reports and is popular among teammates. Goff was also responsible for running his offense at the LOS and received more responsibility at the LOS from his OC than any other QB who played under him.
  
• Checks all the physical boxes. Goff is 6'4" 215 with solid mobility, awesomely quick feet, and an above average arm. His hands are meet the minimum criteria in terms of size. And he's never missed a start due to an injury although he did suffer a separated shoulder in the last game of his freshman year at Cal.
  
• Great decision-maker. Goff is a lot like Peyton Manning in how you'd classify him. He's not a true gunslinger or a true game manager. He mixes elements of both but leans a tad more towards the gunslinger side of the coin. He's never shied away from testing tight coverage, he will take shots down the field, and he has a tremendous amount of confidence in his ability to fit throws into tight windows.
  
• Quick, natural release. Goff gets the ball out quickly and efficiently.
  

Weaknesses:

• Goff has a skinny frame and his hands are smaller than you'd like. He had some issues with fumbles during his career although it did seem to improve in his final year at Cal. There are some concerns that his frame will lead to durability issues in the NFL. It's possible.
  
• Goff will occasionally short-arm passes that he rushes which leads to inaccuracy. He also has some stretches of inconsistency when teams are able to throw him off his rhythm. He's definitely a rhythm passer. When he's on, he's lethal but he does have some stretches in games where he's off.
  
• Goff's arm is above average but it isn't elite. He won't be able to make some of the intermediate to deep sideline throws with zip at the NFL level against tight coverage. But there's a possibility that his arm strength will increase as he adds weight and physically matures.
  
• Goff can be fooled by underneath zone defenders at times which has led to interceptions. Will also force some passes knowing there is a risk of interception. Washington State got him once using a Cover-2 Trap. Goff went after the trap a few others times in the game and got away with it. He's definitely a guy who will take some risks.
  
• Hasn't had many big moments in his career. Cal hasn't been a contender and Goff hasn't had to make many drives in big, close games. He did it this year against Arizona State but it wasn't a game on a big stage.
  
• Goff played in an Air Raid variant so taking drops under center and learning a NFL playbook and NFL verbiage will be new to him.
  

Overall:

• Frankly, Goff doesn't have a lot of true weaknesses. He has some attributes that aren't strengths but they're more neutral than weaknesses. He's a polished passer who is extremely adept mentally and a great pure thrower. I've been smitten with him for over a year. Some will say that he resembles Bradford. And he does. He looks like college Bradford. Skinny kid who is a great pure thrower. But he's so much more advanced in the pocket than Bradford was. I hate to throw around this comparison but he really reminds me of Peyton Manning. Manning is the best QB I've seen play the game and one of my favorite players of all time so I don't throw that comparison around lightly. But he has feet, instincts, and movement in the pocket that are like Manning. And his coach even discusses how Goff studied Manning's feet and mannerisms in the pocket. What I see in Goff is a guy who I think will realistically pan out like Philip Rivers.(I can't say he'll pan out like Manning...it's just not fair to any player to expect that) He's not a dead-on comparison for Rivers as they have different body types, throwing motions, and demeanors. However, like Rivers, Goff has great movement and feel in the pocket, he is highly effective throwing vertically despite not possessing an elite arm, and he's a highly intelligent guy with a great feel for the game. I was reading an article where Goff was describing his thought process on a series of plays. He explained how he recognized that Stanford was playing a Cover-2, anticipated that their CB would not abandon his assignment to jump the underneath route because of his inexperience, and then showed a video of him making a perfect throw into the window created by the Stanford CB carrying the outside WR up the field rather than abandoning the assignment to jump the route the slot WR ran. Then Goff explained that the next time they ran that play in the same game, he expected the CB to not play the outside WR quite as tightly due to being burned once. Due to this, Goff threw the same route but released the ball a tick earlier and threw it to his WR's back hip to keep the CB from being able to jump the route, and then they showed the video of the throw being put on his WR's back hip a split second sooner and the CB trying to jump the route but failing because the ball was on the other side of the WR. What's my point here? Goff combines all the things you look for in a great QB into one skill-set. He's highly intelligent, he's deadly accurate, he has outstanding work habits, and he has amazing instincts in the pocket. I think he's a #1 overall caliber player and if we draft him, we'll win at least one Super Bowl with him as a our QB. You can bookmark this thread if you think that comment is too "optimistic."
  

Wentz
Strengths:

• Wentz is the most physically talented passer since Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. We're talking about a 6'5" 235 pound QB with good mobility and a rifle for an arm. The day he steps onto the NFL field, he'll have one of the strongest arms in the NFL. This is a kid who can make any throw you ask him to. There is no throw off limits in an offense. You want a 15 yard out route from the opposite hash? He'll make the throw. You want a 60 yard hail mary bomb? He'll make the throw. He's got an unreal arm. We're talking Kaepernick, Newton, Cutler, Rodgers tier arm here.
  
• Wentz is a very accurate passer with the potential to be even more accurate in the future. He will make a lot of throws that make your jaw-drop because of his arm strength/accuracy combination. I saw him make throws to intermediate comebacks where the CB was blanketing the WR. I saw him make a throw down the seam that dropped perfectly between 3 defenders to his WR. And despite his arm strength, the touch is there. He'll put some mustard on shorter throws when the window is tight but he knows when to take something off the ball. And he needs to make a tough throw, he will. People have a far more negative impression of his deep ball than they should because he throws it with such good touch. He has slow WRs so he airs the ball out to allow them to adjust to it and make plays rather than trying to throw lasers that they won't be able to run under. People think that his deep ball will hang at times but it's by design. I've seen him throw passes 55 yards in the air on a line.
  
• Wentz's instincts in the pocket are good. He feels pressure, he reacts, and he does his best to escape pressure. Wentz doesn't drop his eyes. He doesn't get happy feet. He doesn't fear being hit. He has a good feel for pressure and knows when to get rid of the ball. He has great poise and composure in the pocket.
  
• Wentz is a great runner who is a legitimate threat to take off and pick up big chunks of yardage if the defense doesn't respect his legs. He isn't Kaepernick or RGIII fast but he has good vision, good agility, and is fearless (too much so, frankly).
  
• Wentz is an outstanding decision-maker who rarely forces balls into coverage. He will not hesitate to take risks or take shots down the field but he's not a guy who takes unjustifiable risks. And when he does take risks, he generally puts the ball in a spot where only his guy will make a play.
  
• Wentz's intelligence and intangibles are top notch. People have been raving about his work habits, leadership, intelligence, and character. He's the type of guy that NFL evaluators dream of at QB. He's a good ole boy who speaks with confidence, commands respect, studies hard in the classroom and the film room, and behaves himself off the field. Type of kid who is the first one in the building and the last to leave. And I've heard rumors that he has an insanely good memory and ability to retain information.
  
• Wentz played in a pro style run-first system that has a lot of similarities to the offense that the Rams currently run. He used verbiage similar to the verbiage used in the pros. He's a very pro ready player mentally and was responsible for running his pro style offense at the LOS (this included calling protections). Wentz made full-field reads, went through progressions with speed, and threw NFL routes.
  
• Wentz played in plenty of big moments and made a number of big time plays and big time drives in those games. There's no question of whether he can handle pressure or "clutch" situations. This is a kid who led a come from behind game winning drive with less than 2 minutes left down 4 in the FCS National Championship game during his first year as a starter. In the big moments, Wentz will step up.
  

Weaknesses:

• Wentz's lower body mechanics need a lot of refinement. Like Jameis Winston, he plays with too wide of a throwing base which constantly forces him to set and reset when he's forced off his spot and wastes precious time before he throws trying to get himself in a proper base. Wentz also is very inconsistent with his pocket movement. He flashes it from time to time but allows his feet to die too often in the pocket. He's got to keep his feet active and keep moving or he'll be a sitting duck in the NFL. He received consistent protection at NDSU from a talented OL so he was able to get away with picking a spot and staying there a lot of the time. Wentz's feet are also not as agile and light as Goff's.
  
• Wentz needs to be more deceptive with his eyes. He locks onto WRs at times and can get tunnel vision. He's definitely behind Goff in this category as Goff does a great job of moving defenders with his eyes and keeping from locking onto targets. Wentz got away with it in college because he has such a cannon for an arm but he needs to be more consistent using his eyes to move defenders or NFL defenders will pick on him as a rookie.
  
• Wentz needs to do a better job of protecting the ball when he runs and protecting himself. He took a lot of unnecessary hits at NDSU and ended up breaking his wrist due to that. He also fumbled quite a bit when he took off and ran. We can't have either of those things in the NFL because both are easily preventable.
  
• Wentz doesn't move as quickly and seamlessly through his progressions as Goff does. He'll lock onto WRs from time to time and be late to his second or third progression. But this is understandable as he has a lot less starting experience.
  
• Wentz played at the FCS level so he didn't perform against anywhere near the level of athletes he'll be facing at the NFL. That all said, he still threw against plenty of tight windows due to how unathletic his WRs were.
  

Overall:

• Wentz has bigger questions and is less polished than Goff. He's got some mechanical issues in his lower body that he'll have to work through although he did show significant improvement during the Senior Bowl and pre-draft process as a whole. However, Wentz is incredibly physically gifted and has all the requisite attributes needed to be great. He has the instincts and mental acuity. I don't see anything lacking in his skill-set aside from the correctable issues that I discussed above. He does have some similarities to Bradford in that he's not as fleet-footed as Goff in the pocket and didn't have to develop great pocket movement in college due to his protection but I think he has a better feel for pressure than Bradford did coming out and is more poised under pressure. Wentz's ceiling is sky high and he's a great fit for a run first offense. Especially one that wants to throw vertically. Wentz needs to protect himself in the NFL in order to stay healthy. Some people compare him to Big Ben but I don't really see the same game there. Ben is such a strong guy and unwilling to go down. Wentz doesn't have the same strength and tackle-breaking ability in the pocket. Personally, I think he's more like a young Carson Palmer. People may scoff at that who don't remember Palmer when he was younger before the catastrophic knee injury but Palmer actually ran a 4.65 40 coming out of college. My personal opinion is that, despite Wentz's athleticism, he shouldn't be used as a runner in the NFL. Like Palmer, he has the ability to be a great pocket passer. Develop him as a passer and protect him from injuries. If he has a seam, he can certainly run. Just make sure he knows to get down and protect himself. Wentz has some similarities to Bortles although I think he's more mentally polished than Bortles was. Ultimately though, I think he has Favre-caliber throwing ability. He doesn't have the gunslinger mindset that Favre has but he has that caliber of an arm and movement skills. I fully expect Wentz to be a top 10 QB in the NFL once he develops. One thing I loved reading about Wentz was the breakdown of the game winning TD he threw against Northern Iowa. In Wentz's first year as a starter, Northern Iowa kicked NDSU's ###. You knew Wentz wanted to get revenge. Northern Iowa got after Wentz and hit him a lot in that game. Wentz threw his first two INTs of the season in that game because their defense was playing so well. One of them was simply a bad decision under pressure. Down 4 with less than 2 minutes, Wentz drove NDSU almost 80 yards. On his final play, Wentz recognized that the defense was in Cover-1 man and recognized the blitz they were bringing so he changed the protection and audibled the play to take advantage of the match-up of his slot WR on the LB. Wentz threw a slot fade that the FS in Cover-1 couldn't get to and the LB covering the slot WR wasn't in position to defend for the game winning TD. It was equally impressive that he recognized the coverage early enough to change the concept and the blitz to change the protection as well as him also having the confidence to change the play and the protection in that sort of situation (45 seconds left in the game down by 4 just inside the red-zone). I think Wentz is every bit worth being the #2 pick and I expect whoever takes him will end up being very happy with him.
  

Click to expand...

Who wrote this? I haven't read it all yet but just the effort alone deserves a like. 

Found looking for scouting reports, not a pro.

Bob Magaw said:

Thanks for the data.

1/8 isn't good (actually pretty bad), but small sample group. What about 2014?

It sounds like he either throws a lot more in the pocket, takes off and runs or hands off. It would be even more interesting imo to look for a similar pattern (or not) of variance in accuracy correlated to pressure-type data, for the much larger passing FROM the pocket numbers, as opposed to the relatively far fewer instances when he passes while breaking containment and is playing out of structure.

Click to expand...

More data from PFF: accuracy percentage under pressure.

70.3% Paxton Lynch 2015
66.7% Marcus Mariota 2014
64.7% Jared Goff 2015
63.2% Jameis Winston 2014
62.4% Sean Mannion 2014
62.0% Brett Hundley 2014
60.3% Bryce Petty 2014
58.1% Garrett Grayson 2014
54.7% Carson Wentz 2015
53.4% Connor Cook 2015

Accuracy percentage under pressure is (completions + drops) / (pass attempts - throwaways - hit as throwing), on plays where the QB faced pressure from the pass rush.

Sources for: 2015, 2014, Cook

CalBear said:

I'm hoping the Rams take Wentz so I don't have to read Tolstoy novels in Goff threads forever.

Click to expand...

TL/DR version - Wentz throw good.

From 4/24 pre-draft post above: 

Wentz
Strengths:

• Wentz is the most physically talented passer since Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. We're talking about a 6'5" 235 pound QB with good mobility and a rifle for an arm. The day he steps onto the NFL field, he'll have one of the strongest arms in the NFL. This is a kid who can make any throw you ask him to. There is no throw off limits in an offense. You want a 15 yard out route from the opposite hash? He'll make the throw. You want a 60 yard hail mary bomb? He'll make the throw. He's got an unreal arm. We're talking Kaepernick, Newton, Cutler, Rodgers tier arm here.
  
• Wentz is a very accurate passer with the potential to be even more accurate in the future. He will make a lot of throws that make your jaw-drop because of his arm strength/accuracy combination. I saw him make throws to intermediate comebacks where the CB was blanketing the WR. I saw him make a throw down the seam that dropped perfectly between 3 defenders to his WR. And despite his arm strength, the touch is there. He'll put some mustard on shorter throws when the window is tight but he knows when to take something off the ball. And he needs to make a tough throw, he will. People have a far more negative impression of his deep ball than they should because he throws it with such good touch. He has slow WRs so he airs the ball out to allow them to adjust to it and make plays rather than trying to throw lasers that they won't be able to run under. People think that his deep ball will hang at times but it's by design. I've seen him throw passes 55 yards in the air on a line.
  
• Wentz's instincts in the pocket are good. He feels pressure, he reacts, and he does his best to escape pressure. Wentz doesn't drop his eyes. He doesn't get happy feet. He doesn't fear being hit. He has a good feel for pressure and knows when to get rid of the ball. He has great poise and composure in the pocket.
  
• Wentz is a great runner who is a legitimate threat to take off and pick up big chunks of yardage if the defense doesn't respect his legs. He isn't Kaepernick or RGIII fast but he has good vision, good agility, and is fearless (too much so, frankly).
  
• Wentz is an outstanding decision-maker who rarely forces balls into coverage. He will not hesitate to take risks or take shots down the field but he's not a guy who takes unjustifiable risks. And when he does take risks, he generally puts the ball in a spot where only his guy will make a play.
  
• Wentz's intelligence and intangibles are top notch. People have been raving about his work habits, leadership, intelligence, and character. He's the type of guy that NFL evaluators dream of at QB. He's a good ole boy who speaks with confidence, commands respect, studies hard in the classroom and the film room, and behaves himself off the field. Type of kid who is the first one in the building and the last to leave. And I've heard rumors that he has an insanely good memory and ability to retain information.
  
• Wentz played in a pro style run-first system that has a lot of similarities to the offense that the Rams currently run. He used verbiage similar to the verbiage used in the pros. He's a very pro ready player mentally and was responsible for running his pro style offense at the LOS (this included calling protections). Wentz made full-field reads, went through progressions with speed, and threw NFL routes.
  
• Wentz played in plenty of big moments and made a number of big time plays and big time drives in those games. There's no question of whether he can handle pressure or "clutch" situations. This is a kid who led a come from behind game winning drive with less than 2 minutes left down 4 in the FCS National Championship game during his first year as a starter. In the big moments, Wentz will step up.
  

Weaknesses:

• Wentz's lower body mechanics need a lot of refinement. Like Jameis Winston, he plays with too wide of a throwing base which constantly forces him to set and reset when he's forced off his spot and wastes precious time before he throws trying to get himself in a proper base. Wentz also is very inconsistent with his pocket movement. He flashes it from time to time but allows his feet to die too often in the pocket. He's got to keep his feet active and keep moving or he'll be a sitting duck in the NFL. He received consistent protection at NDSU from a talented OL so he was able to get away with picking a spot and staying there a lot of the time. Wentz's feet are also not as agile and light as Goff's.
  
• Wentz needs to be more deceptive with his eyes. He locks onto WRs at times and can get tunnel vision. He's definitely behind Goff in this category as Goff does a great job of moving defenders with his eyes and keeping from locking onto targets. Wentz got away with it in college because he has such a cannon for an arm but he needs to be more consistent using his eyes to move defenders or NFL defenders will pick on him as a rookie.
  
• Wentz needs to do a better job of protecting the ball when he runs and protecting himself. He took a lot of unnecessary hits at NDSU and ended up breaking his wrist due to that. He also fumbled quite a bit when he took off and ran. We can't have either of those things in the NFL because both are easily preventable.
  
• Wentz doesn't move as quickly and seamlessly through his progressions as Goff does. He'll lock onto WRs from time to time and be late to his second or third progression. But this is understandable as he has a lot less starting experience.
  
• Wentz played at the FCS level so he didn't perform against anywhere near the level of athletes he'll be facing at the NFL. That all said, he still threw against plenty of tight windows due to how unathletic his WRs were.
  

Overall:

• Wentz has bigger questions and is less polished than Goff. He's got some mechanical issues in his lower body that he'll have to work through although he did show significant improvement during the Senior Bowl and pre-draft process as a whole. However, Wentz is incredibly physically gifted and has all the requisite attributes needed to be great. He has the instincts and mental acuity. I don't see anything lacking in his skill-set aside from the correctable issues that I discussed above. He does have some similarities to Bradford in that he's not as fleet-footed as Goff in the pocket and didn't have to develop great pocket movement in college due to his protection but I think he has a better feel for pressure than Bradford did coming out and is more poised under pressure. Wentz's ceiling is sky high and he's a great fit for a run first offense. Especially one that wants to throw vertically. Wentz needs to protect himself in the NFL in order to stay healthy. Some people compare him to Big Ben but I don't really see the same game there. Ben is such a strong guy and unwilling to go down. Wentz doesn't have the same strength and tackle-breaking ability in the pocket. Personally, I think he's more like a young Carson Palmer. People may scoff at that who don't remember Palmer when he was younger before the catastrophic knee injury but Palmer actually ran a 4.65 40 coming out of college. My personal opinion is that, despite Wentz's athleticism, he shouldn't be used as a runner in the NFL. Like Palmer, he has the ability to be a great pocket passer. Develop him as a passer and protect him from injuries. If he has a seam, he can certainly run. Just make sure he knows to get down and protect himself. Wentz has some similarities to Bortles although I think he's more mentally polished than Bortles was. Ultimately though, I think he has Favre-caliber throwing ability. He doesn't have the gunslinger mindset that Favre has but he has that caliber of an arm and movement skills. I fully expect Wentz to be a top 10 QB in the NFL once he develops. One thing I loved reading about Wentz was the breakdown of the game winning TD he threw against Northern Iowa. In Wentz's first year as a starter, Northern Iowa kicked NDSU's ###. You knew Wentz wanted to get revenge. Northern Iowa got after Wentz and hit him a lot in that game. Wentz threw his first two INTs of the season in that game because their defense was playing so well. One of them was simply a bad decision under pressure. Down 4 with less than 2 minutes, Wentz drove NDSU almost 80 yards. On his final play, Wentz recognized that the defense was in Cover-1 man and recognized the blitz they were bringing so he changed the protection and audibled the play to take advantage of the match-up of his slot WR on the LB. Wentz threw a slot fade that the FS in Cover-1 couldn't get to and the LB covering the slot WR wasn't in position to defend for the game winning TD. It was equally impressive that he recognized the coverage early enough to change the concept and the blitz to change the protection as well as him also having the confidence to change the play and the protection in that sort of situation (45 seconds left in the game down by 4 just inside the red-zone). I think Wentz is every bit worth being the #2 pick and I expect whoever takes him will end up being very happy with him.
  

Time to put this one to bed?

Guess I hadn't voted in this yet. I'll take Wentz.

Deamon said:

Time to put this one to bed?

Click to expand...

Generally, scouts don't make sweeping generalizations and categorical statements after two weeks.

I'm pretty sold on Wentz. It won't be easy for Goff to match him, but far too early to say he can't be a very good QB.

Remember, Wentz was a fifth year senior, Goff a third year junior, so the former is currently operating with more physical/mental maturation (though the latter started one more year). Goff will likely be 225-230 lbs. in a year (he gained 10-15 lbs. every year after high school at Cal). Scouts don't always draft based on where a player is right now (otherwise guys like Gino Toretta may have gone higher), but where they are expected to be when they reach their physical potential.  

Bob Magaw said:

Generally, scouts don't make sweeping generalizations and categorical statements after two weeks.

I'm pretty sold on Wentz. It won't be easy for Goff to match him, but far too early to say he can't be a very good QB.

Remember, Wentz was a fifth year senior, Goff a third year junior, so the former is currently operating with more physical/mental maturation (though the latter started one more year). Goff will likely be 225-230 lbs. in a year (he gained 10-15 lbs. every year after high school at Cal). Scouts don't always draft based on where a player is right now (otherwise guys like Gino Toretta may have gone higher), but where they are expected to be when they reach their physical potential.  

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True.  I would say its been more of a 2 month thing than a 2 week thing though, or else he'd be in there sooner.  That being said I agree it's too early to call him a bust.  Think he needs better coaching though.  Wentz has the luxury of some ex-nfl-qbs and great qb-minds who have been working with him and grooming him.  I don't think he has that in LA and may not for a little while.  Even their O-coordinator has all his offensive coaching history in O-line and Tight Ends.  Even their QB coach is EXTREMELY new to the coaching world.  He needs more support there.

As of now though, signs are pointing to Wentz being the better player.

bud29 said:

Guess I hadn't voted in this yet. I'll take Wentz.

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Hmmm. I guess I will too

All I'm saying is the as of now part (two games) is a pitifully small sample.

When he was playing in the pre-season, he looked skittish, but he also wasn't playing with the first team offense (or defense, to be fair). Goff was heralded as the more advanced and some are disappointed on that basis, which I get. But again, Wentz has the edge in the physical/mental maturation departments. Goff will close that gap in the next season or two.

Again, we haven't even seen Goff in as much as a regular season game yet. For all the other reasons imo it is hasty and premature to doom him to failure, same goes for coaching. Didn't Steve McNair win co-MVP one year? When he was drafted ('95), Jerry Rhome was the OC and **** Coury the Offensive Assistant/Passing Game. Were they genius coaches? Dunno?

The bottom line, if Goff is decisive, strong armed, accurate, has touch, can make all the throws, has a knack for evading the rush (all qualities on display in college), that is an excellent foundation to build on, whoever the coaches are (such as the staff is). The Rams haven't had a stellar passing attack in recent years, but you can argue that Goff is more talented than UFAs such as Hill, Davis, Keenum and journeymen such as Clemens and Foles. Sure, some coaches are better than others, but the bottom line is to get the ball out on time to the most open receiver? This isn't molecular genetics. I'd like to think Dan Marino would have still played well, even for Fisher (though no idea if he would have still put up Hall of Fame stats).    

* Wentz seriously needs to slide and preserve his body better, he is taking some unnecessary shots. BTW, in five dynasty leagues, I got Lynch in two, Wentz in one and Goff in zero (just worked out that way, I preferred Goff). I would not trade Wentz for Goff now. I would Lynch. If I had Goff, I wouldn't be panic selling for pennies on the dollar due to his not starting immediately or because of coaching, before even having a chance to see him play.    

Bob Magaw said:

Generally, scouts don't make sweeping generalizations and categorical statements after two weeks.

I'm pretty sold on Wentz. It won't be easy for Goff to match him, but far too early to say he can't be a very good QB.

Remember, Wentz was a fifth year senior, Goff a third year junior, so the former is currently operating with more physical/mental maturation (though the latter started one more year). Goff will likely be 225-230 lbs. in a year (he gained 10-15 lbs. every year after high school at Cal). Scouts don't always draft based on where a player is right now (otherwise guys like Gino Toretta may have gone higher), but where they are expected to be when they reach their physical potential.  

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Wentz turns 24 and Goff turns 22 later this year.  Goff being behind Wentz developmentally right now is to be expected. 

Prescott

STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Prescott

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Deamon said:

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Not sure what is so shocking, Prescott has a better pedegree then both Wentz and Goff. Only one played at a "good" school. Did Wentz or Goff ever have their teams ranked #1 in the nation for 9 weeks? 

Goff is an arrogant dooshpickle. Reminds me a lot of Marino without the talent. 

Wentz is a putz but has performed well albeit at a lower level. I like him 100X better then Goff, but not sure if he has "it". 

Im drunk in Vegas so 10% of this post is hyperbole. Love you guys!

STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Not sure what is so shocking, Prescott has a better pedegree then both Wentz and Goff. Only one played at a "good" school. Did Wentz or Goff ever have their teams ranked #1 in the nation for 9 weeks? 

Goff is an arrogant dooshpickle. Reminds me a lot of Marino without the talent. 

Wentz is a putz but has performed well albeit at a lower level. I like him 100X better then Goff, but not sure if he has "it". 

Im drunk in Vegas so 10% of this post is hyperbole. Love you guys!

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Lolol.  If they'd count preseason, Dak would be a legend. 

STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Not sure what is so shocking, Prescott has a better pedegree then both Wentz and Goff. Only one played at a "good" school. Did Wentz or Goff ever have their teams ranked #1 in the nation for 9 weeks? 

Goff is an arrogant dooshpickle. Reminds me a lot of Marino without the talent. 

Wentz is a putz but has performed well albeit at a lower level. I like him 100X better then Goff, but not sure if he has "it". 

Im drunk in Vegas so 10% of this post is hyperbole. Love you guys!

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Have you placed any good NFL futures bets at any of the sports books? If so will you share what they are?

Bob Magaw said:

Wentz has bigger questions and is less polished than Goff.

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Wasn't this the common wisdom?

That may have been true when you wrote it. Not so now. I think it's the coaching in the pros that's the difference. I feel like Goff is going to be an Incomplete for quite some time because the Rams are not a good place for a young QB IMO. We shall see if Goff shows up but I think this offense and this HC (Fisher) are going to be quite limiting. If or when he struggles this year arguably it won't be entirely on Goff.

pghrob said:

Have you placed any good NFL futures bets at any of the sports books? If so will you share what they are?

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I'm on Dak OROTY 100/5000, punched in as soon as the Romo injury news came out. If the voting was today, Wentz wins that one. If Dak doesn't do enough to hold off Romo returning from injury, it's all over too.

SaintsInDome2006 said:

Wasn't this the common wisdom?

That may have been true when you wrote it. Not so now. I think it's the coaching in the pros that's the difference. I feel like Goff is going to be an Incomplete for quite some time because the Rams are not a good place for a young QB IMO. We shall see if Goff shows up but I think this offense and this HC (Fisher) are going to be quit limiting. If or when he struggles this year arguably it won't be entirely on Goff.

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TL/DR version - Goff throw good.

If the "if" happens, that could lend credence to your theory. But it isn't like we can run a simulation and put Wentz in LA, to see if he plays just as good as he is in PHI to refute it? Maybe Goff won't have been as good as we thought? Maybe he wouldn't have done as well in PHI, either? Conversely, if Goff does well in LA (under the current coaching staff), that won't support your position. I'm just loathe to assume playing under Fisher will be a death blow to Goff's early career when we have yet to see him play even so much as a down in the regular season (and even in the preseason he didn't work with the starters). Is it obvious to you why would it be for Goff, when it wasn't for McNair once he started under Fisher?

The greatest coach in the world may not have been able to salvage Manziel's career. I'll stand by thinking Marino would be a great QB anywhere. BTW, I'm not saying Goff is Marino just for the especially literal minded. Just that how he does, will also be a reflection on him. If he is as good as the team thought he was in making the move up, than I won't be surprised if he is up to the challenge, WHEN HE IS READY. IMO, part of the disconnect is people are seeing a dysfunctional offense run by Keenum (better against SEA than SF, obviously a low bar, and still without a TD) and assuming that same offense dooms Goff. But Goff is vastly more talented than Keenum (he had a career 56/1 TD/INT ratio in the red zone). So if that is true, it would be a false generalization to slot Goff's upside in the system merely as a function of Keenum's shortcomings. One may have very little or no bearing on the other.

Goff is the highest drafted QB Fisher has ever had to work with. McNair and VY were drafted #3 overall. McNair was great, hard to say Fisher was a QB killer in his case (he didn't play much the first few years, but came from Alcorn State, a much lower level of competition than Goff at Cal - and yes, I know Wentz came from what is now called the FCS). VY, A) may have been (almost certainly was) foisted on Fisher by the owner Bud Adams, B) was never a great PASSER but took the collegiate ranks by storm as a RUNNER first and maybe Adams thought they could catch Vick lightning in a bottle a second time and C) despite all that was ROY, but flamed out in large part for being immature, flaky and quit on the team (not sure how much of that can be attributed to Fisher).    

* I already acknowledged that now that we have seen Wentz, he has set a high bar, and it will be hard for Goff to match that. I'm just reluctant to doom him to failure before we have even seen him. I'm not going to go through all the Goff/Wentz posts here and in the LA/PHI threads (I also posted in both). But Goff was said to be more advanced in that he was a three year starter from the time he was a freshman, whereas Wentz was a two year starter starting with his fourth year in college - Goff had already turned pro, as far as comparable stage of development. But in other ways, that dynamic was inverted. Wentz ran a pro style offense. He took snaps from under center**, made line protection calls, had reads and keys to call audibles based on coverage, etc. Nearly EVERYBODY talked about how Wentz had a freaky memory/retention for plays and was the football equivalent of a savant conceptually. Goff ran the so-called Bear Raid, was in shotgun basically 100% of the time. It wasn't as grossly simplified as the type of scheme Lynch ran at Memphis (half field reads), but how many Pro Bowl QBs have come from the KIND of scheme Goff ran? One reason I like football is the complexity. There is rarely one MONO reason that explains EVERYTHING for how and why things unfold as they do. The OL needs to play well. Same with the receivers. RB. Defense helps shape the landscape of the game script (frequently being FORCED to throw from behind allows the defense to play downhill and more aggressively, makes the offense more one dimensional, predictable and generally isn't conducive to QB success). It could be more complicated than Pederson good, Fisher bad. We'll see (IF Goff is as good as advertised, he could have the talent and ability to elevate Fisher's team - that was the intent and plan).          

** Many people scoff that taking snaps from under center could be a big deal. But all his muscle memory has been geared to the play STARTING with the shotgun snap. Now, he has to do a whole bunch of stuff, i.e. - precisely make a 3-5-7 foot drop, get his head turned around, locate his receivers while on the move, before he can even begin to start where he already was starting before. Meanwhile time has elapsed and the rush is starting to bear down on him from different angles than he was acclimated to, he needs to recalibrate ALL of that, and again, this is deeply embedded muscle memory from most of his life, that can be very resistant and even refractory to quick change.  

Though the trades were savaged at the time, the top two overall picks of the '16 draft a combined 14-3.

Scoring PPG:

LAR - 1) 32.9

PHI - 2) 31.4 

HOU next closest at 28.6

* McVay HAS to be leading candidate for Coach of the Year. Rams haven't been 6-2 since their last 2001 Super Bowl appearance in halcyon days of GSOT. Scored 40+ three X already, only twice in previous DECADE. Pro Bowl LT Whitworth & C Sullivan have cauterized & staunched the bleeding at OL, and vet WRs Watkins, Woods & rookie targets Kupp & TE Everett have significantly improved Goff's weapons, in turn unleashing a return to Gurley's incendiary rookie campaign first month.

Bob Magaw said:

Though the trades were savaged at the time, the top two overall picks of the '16 draft a combined 14-3.

Scoring PPG:

LAR - 1) 32.9

PHI - 2) 31.4 

HOU next closest at 28.6

* McVay HAS to be leading candidate for Coach of the Year. Rams haven't been 6-2 since their last 2001 Super Bowl appearance in halcyon days of GSOT. Scored 40+ three X already, only twice in previous decade. Pro Bowl LT Whitworth & C Sullivan have cauterized & staunched the bleeding at OL, and vet WRs Watkins, Woods & rookie targets Kupp & TE Everett have significantly improved Goff's weapons, in turn unleashing a return to Gurley's incendiary rookie campaign first month.

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Don't disagree that McVay has to be one of the top candidates. I hate that someone like Pederson who is doing an equally great job will get less consideration because the Eagles were less bad last year and probably won't show as much improvement in record as the Rams will. For that matter Belichek never gets as much consideration because the Patriots are always good and, well, Tom Brady. I really think they should have two separate awards: Coach who improved their team the most and Coach of the year.

Bob Magaw said:

Though the trades were savaged at the time, the top two overall picks of the '16 draft a combined 14-3.

Scoring PPG:

LAR - 1) 32.9

PHI - 2) 31.4 

HOU next closest at 28.6

* McVay HAS to be leading candidate for Coach of the Year. Rams haven't been 6-2 since their last 2001 Super Bowl appearance in halcyon days of GSOT. Scored 40+ three X already, only twice in previous decade. Pro Bowl LT Whitworth & C Sullivan have cauterized & staunched the bleeding at OL, and vet WRs Watkins, Woods & rookie targets Kupp & TE Everett have significantly improved Goff's weapons, in turn unleashing a return to Gurley's incendiary rookie campaign first month.

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It's really amazing how much the two of them improved since last year.  Wentz showed flashes last year and you could tell he'd be a good one, but he's arguably the league MVP right now. And Goff looked like he might be a bust. I guess we've just gotten used to guys picked #1 overall getting thrown right in there. The fact that he didn't win the starting job last year (possibly simply a coach's decision not based on talent) made it appear (to rush-to-judgement guys like me) that he may not have been worthy of his number one draft position.  Add Prescott to the mix, and this has the potential to be the best QB draft since the Eli/Roeslisberger/Rivers year. 

JuniorNB said:

It's really amazing how much the two of them improved since last year.  Wentz showed flashes last year and you could tell he'd be a good one, but he's arguably the league MVP right now. And Goff looked like he might be a bust. I guess we've just gotten used to guys picked #1 overall getting thrown right in there. The fact that he didn't win the starting job last year (possibly simply a coach's decision not based on talent) made it appear (to rush-to-judgement guys like me) that he may not have been worthy of his number one draft position.  Add Prescott to the mix, and this has the potential to be the best QB draft since the Eli/Roeslisberger/Rivers year. 

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Could be better. Add brissett, possibly. Too bad Lynch has been a bust.