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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)

thriftyrocker said:
ADP is not the best indicator of QB value because in startups people wait on QB, but in trades, it often requires getting a comparable back to avoid depth imbalance. I think Fuller is an overpay but would offer it if it helped my team (and would rather give Fuller than Gesicki tbh). I think JG's trade value is closer to ADP 100 than ADP 150. The question is really is there an acquirable QB who you like more than JG who you can get with Fuller? The answer is probably no, but worth thinking about. Goff? Prescott? Ryan? These are - by the rankings - more valuable than JG but real world value is not too different. Adding a 4th-to-2nd upgrade is usually an easy ADP consideration that can be removed if the other guys questions it.
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I agree that ADP doesn’t match trade value for QBs, but have found trade value to be below ADP for Jimmy types, in my leagues. In 12 team leagues, most owners have starters they’re comfortable with, and most of them have at least one quality backup. (The typical team has something like Rodgers/Jimmy.) I peaked and Jimmy is a clear backup in all 4 of my leagues.

I was desperately trying to use Brees to trade up from 2.02 for Murray, and couldn’t get anything for him. I was told an early 3rd would would do it, and couldn’t even turn Brees into that. Jimmy is much younger, but why part with a flex worthy piece for him, when both short-term assets like Brees and long-term assets like Haskins can be had for a 3rd?

In my experience, Fuller gets you Dak or Ryan every time. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
I was desperately trying to use Brees to trade up from 2.02 for Murray, and couldn’t get anything for him. I was told an early 3rd would would do it, and couldn’t even turn Brees into that. Jimmy is much younger, but why part with a flex worthy piece for him, when both short-term assets like Brees and long-term assets like Haskins can be had for a 3rd?
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If Garoppolo succeeds he is a long term asset, no different from Haskins. There are a lot of players that can be flexed. The issue is hardly ever not having someone to put there, but more often picking the right one, or in the preferred case, being loaded with players better than Fuller making it obvious. 

 
thriftyrocker said:
If Garoppolo succeeds he is a long term asset, no different from Haskins. There are a lot of players that can be flexed. The issue is hardly ever not having someone to put there, but more often picking the right one, or in the preferred case, being loaded with players better than Fuller making it obvious. 
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A few years ago a QB like Jimmy might have been worth more than a WR like Fuller. I just think we’re in a lopsided buyer’s market and that Fuller is well above his current market value. Maybe in some leagues Fuller is the price and it’s the right move to make. I think those leagues are the exception, however.

 
Zyphros said:
Rank these WR's for trade value:

Robert Woods

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Kenny Golladay

TY Hilton

Adam Thielen
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Thielen, Golladay, Hilton, Moore, Woods, Godwin

ETA: I'd trade the 1.2 for any of them, and would trade the 1.1 for any of the top-3.

 
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Zyphros said:
Rank these WR's for trade value:

Robert Woods

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Kenny Golladay

TY Hilton

Adam Thielen
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Moore

Hilton

Godwin

Golladay

Woods

Thielen

This was tough though, good list.  I may be higher than most on Moore, but I think he breaks out in a big way this year.  I have him in my main dynasty league, and I tried to imagine if I would accept any of the other wrs on this list straight up for him.  I would not.  Edit: actually, after thinking about it, flip flop Thielen and Woods for me. 

 
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Zyphros said:
Rank these WR's for trade value:

Robert Woods

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Kenny Golladay

TY Hilton

Adam Thielen
Click to expand...
Trade value today, I have them as Thielen, Moore, Golladay, Hilton, Woods, Godwin
Trade value in January 2020, I guess it will look like Moore, Godwin, Thielen, Woods, Golladay, Hilton

 
tangfoot said:
Trade value today, I have them as Thielen, Moore, Golladay, Hilton, Woods, Godwin
Trade value in January 2020, I guess it will look like Moore, Godwin, Thielen, Woods, Golladay, Hilton
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Just curious, why do you think Woods would become more valuable than Golladay, if he isn't already?

 
travdogg said:
Just curious, why do you think Woods would become more valuable than Golladay, if he isn't already?
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I think the Rams offense vs. the Loins offense will be night and day, but people are still giddy about Golladay's prospects at this time.  Woods is a bit older, but I think he will really shine this year while Kupp is still getting back up to strength.

 
I figured it would be very different for everyone that's why I asked.  That whole group is either breakout candidate who everyone believes in, or slightly aged vet that has a few years of productivity left but not the elite WR1 kind.  

The other reason I asked is I sent an offer of 2 of those players and getting 1 of them and a 2020 1st in return, and I just found out he accepted so that's nice.  

 
Zyphros said:
I figured it would be very different for everyone that's why I asked.  That whole group is either breakout candidate who everyone believes in, or slightly aged vet that has a few years of productivity left but not the elite WR1 kind.  

The other reason I asked is I sent an offer of 2 of those players and getting 1 of them and a 2020 1st in return, and I just found out he accepted so that's nice.  
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I think all of those guys are worth quite a bit more than a single 1st, so it feels like you lost value. 

 
Zyphros said:
Rank these WR's for trade value:

Robert Woods

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Kenny Golladay

TY Hilton

Adam Thielen
Click to expand...
Tough one. Admittedly I favour youth in valuations (perhaps too much), but mine would be:

Golladay

Thielen

Godwin

Moore

Hilton

Woods

 
Zyphros said:
I figured it would be very different for everyone that's why I asked.  That whole group is either breakout candidate who everyone believes in, or slightly aged vet that has a few years of productivity left but not the elite WR1 kind.  

The other reason I asked is I sent an offer of 2 of those players and getting 1 of them and a 2020 1st in return, and I just found out he accepted so that's nice.  
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What was the trade?

 
RushHour said:
Golladay

Godwin

Moore

Thielen

Woods

Hilton
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Adjusted for my view, but I don't see Thielen continuing like last year.  Galladay & Godwin could flip.  Moore is very dependent on Cam's shoulder recovery.  Early reports are not promising (really low accuracy at initial camp).

 
Amazed how low on Hilton dynasty folks are.  Extremely reliable, plays in a high-powered offense with an elite QB, has flirted with top numbers in yardage multiple times, hitting it once.  I get that the TD production is down, but as a high-floor WR2 can’t imagine anyone I’d rather have.

You guys could easily get potential plays like Moore, Golladay or Godwin off me for Hilton.  Hilton’s historical performance would be a career success for those guys and that’s far from guaranteed.

 
Arodin said:
Amazed how low on Hilton dynasty folks are.  Extremely reliable, plays in a high-powered offense with an elite QB, has flirted with top numbers in yardage multiple times, hitting it once.  I get that the TD production is down, but as a high-floor WR2 can’t imagine anyone I’d rather have.

You guys could easily get potential plays like Moore, Golladay or Godwin off me for Hilton.  Hilton’s historical performance would be a career success for those guys and that’s far from guaranteed.
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Hilton had a consistent 2018, but 2017 and 2016 were very Jekyll and Hyde.  He's missed some games and he's getting up there toward that point of no return in dynasty value.  I am all over him in redraft, but would be looking to move him off of all my dynasty teams except those that are competing for this year's title.

 
Concept Coop said:
I’d take him over everyone but Jacobs. So the 1.02 for me. I’m sure most would put him closer to 1.05 though.
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Didn't press the issue too hard, but I couldn't get anyone to give me a top-half 1st round pick prior to the NFL draft.  Not sure his value is considered to be significantly different today.

 
Gottabesweet said:
What pick is Tyler Boyd worth? Where would you rather keep the pick vs Boyd. 
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I am high on Boyd. I had taken Jacobs at 1.1 it was pick 4's turn. I gave Jacobs for pick 4 and Boyd.  Montgomery was on the the board so I took him. I am very high on Boyd and have tried to get him in many leagues. In my dealings he has a wide range of values. 

 
tangfoot said:
Didn't press the issue too hard, but I couldn't get anyone to give me a top-half 1st round pick prior to the NFL draft.  Not sure his value is considered to be significantly different today.
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It seems like a sizable portion of the community sees his 2018 season as a fluke (FBG included, based on 2019 projections). The Bengals are an easy team not to pay attention to, but the kid sure looked the part to me.

 
Gottabesweet said:
I sent him for that earlier this offseason but curious to acquire him back.  Late 2019 firsts the price to get him?
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He's got a dynasty startup adp of 34th overall.  Josh Jacobs is the first rookie taken at 36th overall.  Every league is different but the days of people saying he's not worth an early second round pick are gone and the chance to buy for a late 2019 first is probably dried up too. 

 
tangfoot said:
Hilton had a consistent 2018, but 2017 and 2016 were very Jekyll and Hyde.  He's missed some games and he's getting up there toward that point of no return in dynasty value.  I am all over him in redraft, but would be looking to move him off of all my dynasty teams except those that are competing for this year's title.
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He went 91-1448-6 in 2016 so no reason to be worried about that. 

2017 he obviously gets a bit of a pass because he was playing with jacoby Brisset instead of Andrew luck. With luck he's been a stud pretty consistently. 

 
Austin Hooper vs Chris Herndon

Either vs the rookie TEs?

Long Term Hooper over Herndon or is it close? What are they worth in picks?

Hooper had 71 catches last season. Freeman is back though, The three receivers as well. 

 
Gottabesweet said:
Austin Hooper vs Chris Herndon

Either vs the rookie TEs?

Long Term Hooper over Herndon or is it close? What are they worth in picks?

Hooper had 71 catches last season. Freeman is back though, The three receivers as well. 
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As someone who drafted Hooper as a rookie, it’s him and it isn’t close. 

VERY curious to see how the offense and targets look on the Jets this season

 
Gottabesweet said:
Throw Ian Thomas in there. More upside when Olsen is done and more likely targets? 
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If you’re willing to put Ian Thomas on the back burner for a year (a TE3 at best with a healthy Olsen), then I think he’s a decent option.  2019 is a lost season for him. 

 
Gottabesweet said:
Austin Hooper vs Chris Herndon

Either vs the rookie TEs?

Long Term Hooper over Herndon or is it close? What are they worth in picks?

Hooper had 71 catches last season. Freeman is back though, The three receivers as well. 
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I have a personal hate for Hooper, he isn't flashy, but somehow he gets some fantasy points.  The problem with that is that he isn't elite, so his value above replacement is very minimal.  And if I'm going not elite at TE I want the super cheap option.  Vance McDonald, Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst maybe, hell Jared Cook is insanely cheap right now.  

The right now answer and the long term answer is Chris Herndon because nobody knows what he will be yet, everyone knows Hooper is stuck in the mud as a backend TE1, and that just doesn't have a lot of value.  

Like you mentioned I expect a lot of 3 WR sets, plus Freeman to get his, while the target distribution for the Jets doesn't seem as spread out.  It's Robby Anderson and Lev Bell.  That's it.  Crowder or Enunwa are nice fliers but they aren't worthy of high projections like Ridley and Sanu would be.  I say Herndon and it isn't particularly close.  Fade into nothingness already Hooper.  Go big or go broke at TE, always.  

 
Gottabesweet said:
Austin Hooper vs Chris Herndon

Either vs the rookie TEs?

Long Term Hooper over Herndon or is it close? What are they worth in picks?

Hooper had 71 catches last season. Freeman is back though, The three receivers as well. 
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I'd say its:

Hooper>Hockenson>Fant>>>Herndon

Hooper is a really interesting player. He's improved every year, and wins in such a different way than Julio/Ridley that there is no reason he won't be a top-10 TE for years to come. There is a chance Hooper is another Zach Ertz, who also steadily improved every year, before becoming the high-end TE1 he is now.

Herndon is a nice prospect, but I can't help but wonder if he benefited from the Jets lack of weapons last year. I think its likely Crowder, and especially Bell take a lot of those shorter catches this year.

I wouldn't trade a 1st for any of these guys(or take either rookie in round 1, though I think Hockenson has a high floor) but would probably go as high as 2.2 for Hooper.

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
Lindsay seems to be a polarizing player- love him or hate him. Where would people put Lindsay relative to Deebo Samuel in a ppr league? 
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In a startup, I would never draft Lindsay, he'd be on my avoid list.  Deebo would be a heavy target for me in a startup as well. 

If I already had Lindsay and wanted to trade him away for Deebo it wouldn't take much, if anything, for me to trade them straight up.  Might give some sort of line like "RB's are more valuable, what can you pitch in on top of Deebo for Lindsay".  

 
Zyphros said:
In a startup, I would never draft Lindsay, he'd be on my avoid list.  Deebo would be a heavy target for me in a startup as well. 

If I already had Lindsay and wanted to trade him away for Deebo it wouldn't take much, if anything, for me to trade them straight up.  Might give some sort of line like "RB's are more valuable, what can you pitch in on top of Deebo for Lindsay".  
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Why are you so high on Deebo? Seems like not a lot of people are, especially in my league

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
Why are you so high on Deebo? Seems like not a lot of people are, especially in my league
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Plenty of reasons I've posted all over this board, I'd rather not go into it.  The brief answer is he runs good routes, can play outside really well, great in open space, and is built like a RB.  I have yet to find someone that completely dislikes Deebo though, everyone is either high on him or think he's decent enough to get by.  Nobody hates him that I've seen. 

But there really isn't anything to dislike about him other than an slight injury history (nothing major) or if you're not a fan of Garoppolo and that offense.  

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
Lindsay seems to be a polarizing player- love him or hate him. Where would people put Lindsay relative to Deebo Samuel in a ppr league? 
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I'm on the other side here, and have Lindsay miles ahead of Samuel. Like I'd want a 1st rounder plus Samuel for Lindsay. 

I'm a huge Lindsay fan, and think Josh Jacobs is the only rookie I'd take over him.

Samuel is a late 1st rounder for me. I think he's going to be the #3 in San Fran behind Kittle and Pettis going forward.

 
travdogg said:
I'm on the other side here, and have Lindsay miles ahead of Samuel. Like I'd want a 1st rounder plus Samuel for Lindsay. 

I'm a huge Lindsay fan, and think Josh Jacobs is the only rookie I'd take over him.

Samuel is a late 1st rounder for me. I think he's going to be the #3 in San Fran behind Kittle and Pettis going forward.
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That is why we play this game... we all view players "potential or future" differently.  I am a big believer in Deebo and I have moderate faith in Lindsay, but there is no way I would pay that for him.  I think that is asking too much but I can see why you value him that way.  

I can see Samuel & 3rd for Lindsay as fair.  

 
travdogg said:
I'm on the other side here, and have Lindsay miles ahead of Samuel. Like I'd want a 1st rounder plus Samuel for Lindsay. 

I'm a huge Lindsay fan, and think Josh Jacobs is the only rookie I'd take over him.

Samuel is a late 1st rounder for me. I think he's going to be the #3 in San Fran behind Kittle and Pettis going forward.
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This.

The Lindsay passes the eye test for me, he produces every time he touches the football.

 
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