My point was that at age 26 he was coming off a strong season and couldn't get a starting gig. Same could easily happen to Carson. Especially if Penny turns it into a committee by the end of Carson's rookie contract. He'll be 25 to start this season and 26 to start his final season, so his next contract will be for his age 27 season. I think Lindsay will be in a similar boat (27 year old FA with looming RBBC).
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If teams see Carson as worthy of being a starter, he’ll be a starter. Teams didn’t think Anderson was. Unless you have another explanation for him being more valuable in 2016 than 2018? His “strong” season obviously didn’t win teams over.
Of course the same thing could happen to Carson, but it won’t be because his contract happens to expire in 2020.
It seems playing like a starter at age 26 doesn't guarantee you a starting gig in free agency at age 27. So from a dynasty perspective, while I like Carson, I'm only expecting 2 more years of fantasy production from him. Same for Lindsay. I think the Seattle system has been beneficial to Carson, but Penny will be making $3.5M in 2021. I'll be surprised if they bring Carson back at that point, so will he find similar success in a new system? Risky, IMO.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Using your own example, starting at 26 doesn’t guarantee most RBs anything, whether they’re under contract or not. I know you like Anderson and PFF loved him that season, for whatever reason, but the league didn’t. They thought he might be a quality starter, paid him accordingly, didn’t like what they saw, and moved on.
I agree that we shouldn’t count on backs like Carson having value 2+ years out. No disagreement there. My point of contention is the suggestion that there are backs that teams value as quality starters who have been relegated to committees or depth because - again, I’m not sure I’m seeing a consistent argument - they cost too much or are too cheap or something. If teams thought CJ Anderson was a quality starter, he’d have a starting job.
Pivoting from Anderson a bit: Oakland never saw Murray as a long-term solution. He showed enough promise to warrant a shot and wasn’t good enough. Minny never signed him to be their long-term solution either. These types aren’t safe whether they’re under contract or not.
We’re probably spending too much time on something that isn’t particularly interesting. I just wanted to make sure I was clear. I agree with the notion that Carson is a short-term asset, until he proves otherwise, and that most in his position don’t last.
I like the CJA example because he had a nice 2017, then when he got his shot in 2018, he showed he was still more than capable of starting and carrying the load, but couldn't get a starting contract that year or the next year.
Which was really my point. My point isn't that there are backs that teams value as quality starters that they choose not to pay... I'm saying there are backs that ARE quality starters that get relegated to backup roles around 27 for reasons I don't understand. I mean, why was Indy rolling out Jordan Wilkins week 1 when CJA could've been had so cheaply? Why did Baltimore draft Ray Rice and relegate Willis McGahee to the bench at age 27? Why is Buffalo overpaying for McCoy?
Don't get me wrong - I'm not advocating for teams paying a lot at RB. I am with Gase in that I think the Bell contract will not be worth it. It just confuses me when McCoy is getting paid a lot for his bad season and some decent talent is not seeing the field or when guys like Jordan Wilkins, Josh Adams, and Alfred Blue are playing serious snaps.
As for Murray, I agree he was a marginal at best starter. He wasn't a great example.
Given your last line, I think we're pretty much in agreement. I was originally agreeing with thriftyrocker that Sanders' primary benefit over Carson right now is that he's got 4 years left on his rookie contract and Carson only has 2. I'll be surprised if free agency is kind to either of them.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
LOL. People have been saying the same thing about Fitz for 6 years. Julio will be fantasy relevant for 3 years minimum.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t see Julio moving inside and winning underneath, the way Fitz has. Julio might have 3 years, but once he really slows down, he’s probably done.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think there are multiple factors.
I think teams have to account for the shelf life of RBs. They want young guys in place when the vets start to slow down.
I also think they prefer potential to baseline options. Average RBs don’t have a big impact on the game, so it makes sense to roll the dice on upside. Jordan Wilkins was more valuable because he came with upside, whereas the league felt like they knew what Anderson was.
I don’t think we disagree on how to treat guys like Carson, just the reasoning. I don’t see quality starters who aren’t starting because they are 27 YO or because they hit FA. Anderson is that to you, but I don’t see him in that light and I don’t think the league does either.
I disagree with you and Thrifty, in that I think it’s the difference in age that separates them, not contract length. If the Eagles don’t think Sanders is a quality starter in 2 years, he’s not going to be starting. If the Seahawks don’t see Carson as a quality starter in 2 years, at least there’s hope someone else does. History says probably not, but maybe (Miller, McKinnon).
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
If there was a RB who was a 24 yo rookie taken in the 3rd round, I think he would be given more of a chance to start than an equivalent player as a FA who entered the league at 21. Because he is cheap. The veteran will be given a short term contract where he can be cut after year 1 without much concern. In most cases. If you look at the top RB contracts there aren't many. Some teams like the Eagles trade for proven starters with < 2 years left because it is cheaper. Young players are given mulligans that players on their 2nd contract aren't afforded.Concept Coop said:
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Anyone see any Mike Evans trades recently?
PPR offer of Evans and Watkins for 1.2 and Fournette.
Not the highest on Watkins but I’m sure I could use him in a future deal.
What are the values of 1.2 right now and Evans, Fournette.
PPR offer of Evans and Watkins for 1.2 and Fournette.
Not the highest on Watkins but I’m sure I could use him in a future deal.
What are the values of 1.2 right now and Evans, Fournette.
I wouldn't do Evans for Fournette and 1.2. Let alone throw Watkins in. Evans is probably a 1st round startup caliber player.
Maybe I'm high on Evans, but I'd want at a ton more than that. Like multiple high 1st rounders.
Evans>>>Fournette>1.2>>Watkins
I'd personally value Watkins at 1.5, but I think there is a big difference between 1.2 and 1.5.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I’d be getting Evans. I like him. Just hard to value the 1.2 and Fournette.
Evans will be 26 in August, just curious if Howard and Godwin stop stealing targets.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sure, rookie contracts are cheap and guarantee heavy, so there is less incentive to terminate them early. If that was your point, I don’t disagree. But if he’s good enough to warrant an extension, we’re really talking 4+ years down the road, as the guaranteed money will be prohibitive early in the contract. This even assuming he only gets Mark Ingram money, which might not even be enough to extend him. He’s not passing up FA for a 1 year deal with a couple extra vanity years on it.
I do see your point, but don’t put the weight in it that you do. Ultimately, Carson will be good enough to start 3 years from now or he won’t. Same goes for Sanders, his teammate Howard being an example.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Gross. He accepted Evans and 3.1 for Mack, Marvin Jones and 1.5
barackdhouse
Footballguy
If I'm the one getting Evans I snapcall if it's actually on the table. I am sour on Fournette though I do like the 1.02. But Evans on his own without Watkins would be a snapcall.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I just completed two startups and I took him at 13 overall and 18 overall. I play in 12 team PPR so he is just outside 1st round startup in those leagues.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't think you could argue that Anderson hasn't been a quality starter when he's (1) been healthy and (2) gotten the opportunity. But the dude is starting to look like Tolbert...Concept Coop said:
If Sanders is putting up workman-like starting stats (CJA-ish), the Eagles will probably roll with him until his contract expires. I think if he's not a bust, he's got a minimum of 4 years of utility in him which is 2 more than I can count on from Carson. But the odds he is a bust are probably a little higher than 50%.
Spike
Footballguy
I would flip Bell and DJ.
That I figure Arizona will likely work mostly out of the shotgun is a limiting factor to me for DJs rushing output.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
We're going to have to pick a different example if we're going to continue; we're just not going to agree on Anderson.
Quality starters don't get cut to save 4.5M over two years. Quality starters don't sign for 1/1.75M in the same offseason that sees Dion Lewis signed for 4/20M. Quality starters don't sign for 1/1.5M while Mike Davis gets 2/6M. Latavius Murray, who you agreed wasn't a quality starter, got 3/15M from MIN and 4/14M from NO.
If you have other examples, I'm certainly interested. But CJ Anderson doesn't hold water for me.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I traded for him a few weeks ago, during our rookie draft.
12 Tm PPR, 4 pt passing TDs
Gave: DJohnson, CNewton, 1.09 (Hardman)
Got: NChubb, DBrees, 2.02 (Murray)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If the other owner is scared of Hunt, you might be able to make the swap without adding too much. I've been a Fournette fan and was late to the party on Chubb, but would need a lot to downgrade today.
Early in the offseason I offered Fournette/Ertz for Chubb/Howard to the same owner, and it was rejected. Granted, this was before the Hunt signing.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I like Chubb more today and would need another sizalbe part coming my way to downgrade to Fournette. I still like Fournette, so if he has a healthy and productive season, I'll likely be right back on the bandwagon. But currently I see a lot of risk there.
I'm not going to say "the numbers don't lie" because sometimes they do, but by most statistical accounts he was a quality starter in 2017 and he sure looked good running for the Rams, so all this hemming and hawing about his contracts means nothing. I didn't say anything about contracts. I said he performs when he plays.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Feels a bit like a false narrative. There are 3rd/4th year WR who are equivalent physically to a "slowed down" Julio Jones, without his skill or drive, and they are productive enough to be startable. This is not the case of Dez Bryant where the player won't do the small stuff. There are routes Julio has excelled at that go beyond shear physical dominance. Calvin Johnson was slowing down in his last year but he could still accumulate stats. If Julio drops off the face of the planet, it will be due to some catastrophic injury he's too old to come back from, not age. Certainly that's possible given he has had foot issues since college, but injury is an issue for most players' value. I would still probably buy if he gets hurt (except achilles), because a modest prospect for a chance at a comeback season is still a good bet.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
TO put up 1,000 at 35. Julio is that kind of physical freak, so maybe he can, too. I just don’t see him doing it the way Larry has. That’s all.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Where do people put AB? I'm trying to acquire in 1 league that seems pretty straight forward of something like DK Metcalf + another piece and those conversations have gotten me nowhere. I can't imagine his price is that high anymore. New team, over 30 and all.
Guess I'm just frustrated that this should have been done already for a team that isn't competitive. But there was never a counter so I feel like I'm way off somehow.
Guess I'm just frustrated that this should have been done already for a team that isn't competitive. But there was never a counter so I feel like I'm way off somehow.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Metcalf value is living off being the Combine hero. Every week we get away from that we get a little lower in actual production value. High hopes, but no one wants to put him in their week 1 line-up.
If you think that AB going to a new team is a big detractor, you have to knock Metcalf for going to a new team as well. Metcalf has to learn to run routes and is trying to become the #2 or #3 WR option on a run first team.
AB has been the top WR for the last 5 years. Age 30 is more like the RB dropoff point. 33 or so for WRs, later for those that are technical in abilities. Yes, the Raiders have issues. No denying that.
DK Metcalf would be the "another Piece" in a trade for AB. 2020 first + a youngish fantasy #2 RB + Metcalf may get it done.
Rookie fever is fading... it's time to look at who you actually want to put in your line-up. AB produces and still makes the roster look shiny.
You opinion may vary.
I'm a huge Metcalf fan, and think there is a good chance he's the best WR from this draft class, and even I would say that he's worth nowhere near Brown. In my opinion, Brown is still a top-20 dynasty asset. He could see close to 200 targets in Oakland, including tons of garbage time, and almost certainly has a chip on his shoulder.Zyphros said:
Metcalf, a 2020 1st, and a decent player would be my price.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I dunno about top 20, I just peeked at DLF ADP and would put him 30, but agree with the rest. Gruden has absolutely fed his WR1 so AB could end up with over 150 targets again and post top 5 numbers. More risk with the quality of QB but plenty of upside should things click.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't own Brown anymore. I only ever had one share and sold him last year before the season. If I had him now I would likely hold until his legs fall off because even if he is batty he has a good chance of staying an elite WR1 for I would guess 3 more years. Many would take the under and I won't fault them for that. But to give now I would want a much higher return than anyone is going to give now. So probably holding forever. The thing would be if he shows strong at the beginning of the season then his value might bounce back up again. I love Metcalf in Seattle and think he could be huge. But right now he is too much of a question mark. Add a seemingly low 2020 1st and a third piece that I can put in my lineup right now and we could begin a conversation.
All that said I am not targeting Brown and am not trying to acquire him. I assume most owners are still bullish on him.
All that said I am not targeting Brown and am not trying to acquire him. I assume most owners are still bullish on him.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't see a top5 WR anymore. He was WR5 last year in FFPC, because of 2 things I'd say, 168 targets and 15 TD's. Do people honestly believe he'll reach those numbers in Oakland? Maybe the targets, but the quality of them won't be as good. Nor does he have JuJu opposite him to help ease some coverage.
There were only 2 other WR's with higher target total than AB last year (Davante 169, Julio 170). He's still really good and can probably keep his pace for another couple years but he isn't nearly worth future picks plus young stud (if you believe in Metcalf) and another piece on top to me. His days as a top5 WR are over. I just can't see myself ever paying that type of price. Kind of falls into what @barackdhouse was saying. He might die on the fantasy team he's already on.
In my league he's on a team that is middle of the road at best so I figured I could snag him away. Maybe if Metcalf starts popping off but I'd have to wait 2 months for that to even be possible. I'm very age biased in my dynasty rankings so I guess that plays into how I'm lower on AB than most.
There were only 2 other WR's with higher target total than AB last year (Davante 169, Julio 170). He's still really good and can probably keep his pace for another couple years but he isn't nearly worth future picks plus young stud (if you believe in Metcalf) and another piece on top to me. His days as a top5 WR are over. I just can't see myself ever paying that type of price. Kind of falls into what @barackdhouse was saying. He might die on the fantasy team he's already on.
In my league he's on a team that is middle of the road at best so I figured I could snag him away. Maybe if Metcalf starts popping off but I'd have to wait 2 months for that to even be possible. I'm very age biased in my dynasty rankings so I guess that plays into how I'm lower on AB than most.
joey
Footballguy
Agreed. I own him in only one league where I’m win now and I'm holding and will run him into the ground for as many years as he'll give me.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I don’t see Carr and Brown working. There’s a lot of risk to me, I could see it really going sideways.
That is probably the biggest part of the difference in Brown's value. I tend to be much more forgiving to older players(especially non-RB's) because I'm almost never looking more than 3-4 years down the road. I've always been a very frequent trader, so its very rare a player makes it longer than that on my teams. Also because 50% of fantasy 1st round rookies don't pan out. I like Metcalf a ton, but I'm not certain he(or any WR in this class) will be a star. Really the only 2 guys I'm 100% sold on, are Murray and Hockenson, and they play devalued positions. Haskins too, but he's only going 1st round in 2-QB leagues.
I think Brown's a HOF-talent, the best WR in Steelers history by a gigantic margin, and is still in his prime, albeit the later part, I think the 15 TD's is unlikely to happen in Oakland, but I think he could easily add another 200 yards. 110-1400-9 seems reasonable, and is basically what Michael Thomas did last year. I really think the Steelers will miss Brown more than he will miss them.
Brown just went 36 overall in my SF startup, which feels about right to me. Based on Mizelle ADP, Metcalf is worth ~half of what AB is, so it would take essentially another player at or above DK's value to get something started.
Add in the fact that the guy selling the better player in the deal wants a little juice, and you're looking at some suggestions like you saw above (DK + 2020 1st + a little sumpin').
Add in the fact that the guy selling the better player in the deal wants a little juice, and you're looking at some suggestions like you saw above (DK + 2020 1st + a little sumpin').
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
ADP is not the best indicator of QB value because in startups people wait on QB, but in trades, it often requires getting a comparable back to avoid depth imbalance. I think Fuller is an overpay but would offer it if it helped my team (and would rather give Fuller than Gesicki tbh). I think JG's trade value is closer to ADP 100 than ADP 150. The question is really is there an acquirable QB who you like more than JG who you can get with Fuller? The answer is probably no, but worth thinking about. Goff? Prescott? Ryan? These are - by the rankings - more valuable than JG but real world value is not too different. Adding a 4th-to-2nd upgrade is usually an easy ADP consideration that can be removed if the other guys questions it.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
That trade should not be indicative of future trades nor the value of QBs in a 1QB league.
That just isn’t happening in most 12 team leagues. QBs don’t have much value in those. That’s a really bad trade
You stole Keenan Allen. Just because another owner made a bad deal, doesn't mean they all will. Personally, I'd rather have Fuller than Goff, and Fuller is miles ahead of Garoppolo.
What other QB's does that owner have?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm guessing you wanted the word "start" and not "stop" in here - but either way I don't see how that should be a concern. There's plenty of targets to go around for those two without taking any away from Evans. Humphries and Jackson are gone and Howard should start pushing Brate aside as well.
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