Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah then Jones should be fine I guess.
A couple weeks ago I was wondering if Brady would play well again.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
A couple weeks ago I was wondering if Brady would play well again.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I'm not a Brady homer or hater, but I think it makes sense that he and the entire offense needed time to gel, know each other, etc. They had no preseason, and Brady is in a new system. I think all the Bucs skill players are more likely to continue to improve as the season goes on than decline. Familiarity matters.
Zyphros
Footballguy
What's the difference between Godwin and Kittle in TE premium? Godwin's value has come down to earth a bit this year, but he's still looking very good when healthy. He's been fighting injuries all year long and right now he's outside the top50 WR's in PPR but his value is way higher than that right?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Where do you place Aaron Jones in startup value right now?
How about future draft pick value?
How about future draft pick value?
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Struggling with this offer...as I'm WFT homer.
Give: McLaurin and 1st (guessing 1.7-1.10 Range)
Get: Jacobs
I NEED RB help...but is my homerism clouding my judgement, can't seem to pull the trigger....(I have McLaurin, Evans, Diontae Johnson, JuJu, Jefferson, Jeudy, Crowder, Hardman at WR)
Fair trade for Jacobs over an overpay since McLaurin is better than Jerry Rice & Randy Moss put together?
Give: McLaurin and 1st (guessing 1.7-1.10 Range)
Get: Jacobs
I NEED RB help...but is my homerism clouding my judgement, can't seem to pull the trigger....(I have McLaurin, Evans, Diontae Johnson, JuJu, Jefferson, Jeudy, Crowder, Hardman at WR)
Fair trade for Jacobs over an overpay since McLaurin is better than Jerry Rice & Randy Moss put together?
rockaction
Footballguy
That's wild you should ask because I thought of a Godwin/Kittle straight up swap (not TE premium) earlier in the week to the Kittle owner that needs a receiver and decided not to send that offer. I just sort of put in my back pocket. But I'm a Godwin honk, so there's that.Zyphros said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Too much, IMO. Jacobs hasn't broken anything long in forever. See what Booker is doing with his touches behind that line. There's no home run in Jacobs. That said, he's about coach usage/volume for as long as the coach decides that's the way it will be, and the coach has plenty of security.Struggling with this offer...as I'm WFT homer.
Give: McLaurin and 1st (guessing 1.7-1.10 Range)
Get: Jacobs
I NEED RB help...but is my homerism clouding my judgement, can't seem to pull the trigger....(I have McLaurin, Evans, Diontae Johnson, JuJu, Jefferson, Jeudy, Crowder, Hardman at WR)
Fair trade for Jacobs over an overpay since McLaurin is better than Jerry Rice & Randy Moss put together?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Valid concerns, but every time I watch him he looks good to me. I'd be looking to buy if owners are scared off by Booker or his YPC. I love Terry, so I don't know if I could pull the trigger, but the value is about right, IMO. I'd be stoked if I could land him for Juju and a mid/late first. That would be my first counter.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'd have a real tough time parting with McLaurin and a first in PPR formats for most guys, so there's that. I didn't mean to run a truck through Jacobs; I'm just pointing out a concern I have about him. He's really good otherwise.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
That's kind of where I am on him. I think he's a very solid RB, but not elite. Kind of like Forte all those years in Chicago, just a better situation than talent. But when you see Booker look as good behind the same line it does make you pause....but I like that Gruden feeds him for sure.
rockaction
Footballguy
Depends how much money or what kind of bragging rights are at stake in this league, but all other things constant, why not keep the guy you want to root for if that's what your gut tells you?
That said, WFT is sure to draft a receiver in the offseason. They can't go running through the season with this again, can they? I mean Antonio Gandy-Golden can't get off of the IR and wasn't having much of an impact when he was there. So Terry's days as a surefire WR1 are determined by whatever capital investment the team makes in other guys coming out in the draft. But that's true of everybody in the league, save for the situation that Jacobs and his first-round draft capital finds himself. He's a likely lock at RB for the Raiders for the foreseeable future, though weirder stuff has happened.
I just ran a calc from DLF. There's about a hundred fifty point difference favoring the guy who wants the first rounder. First hunches appear correct here. He's a Pittman, Slayton, or Gallup away from even value.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I just couldn't do the trade offered, but came out with what I think is a fair counter. Added to his offer me giving Jeudy and him adding AJ Brown. Thoughts?
I give: McLaurin, 1st, Jeudy
I get: Jacobs, AJB
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rockaction
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
Aaron Rodgers. I was in a dynasty startup the first season he was the starter in Green Bay. 16 team league and I waited a loooong time to draft my 1st QB. I got laughed at during the draft and for weeks after....until I won the league with Rodgers as the centerpiece of my team.
Jacobs is light years better than Booker. Booker can be solid behind a good line and does seem to have some pep in his step this year but Jacobs, although not the homerun speed, is showing elite vision and efficiency and seems to get the maximum out of every run that he is physically able to.
I agree he's not in that elite tier really but a super dependable low end RB1 that earns a lot of yards based on his talent.
As a major homer and Jacobs owner I wouldn't give him up for Terry and a 1st although it's a super fair offer but for the same reason I'd say don't give up Terry as a WFT homer. I mean how many productive fantasy options are there on that team? Hold him and enjoy the best of both worlds. Rooting for your real and fantasy team.
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kutta
Footballguy
WFT will probably also draft a QB. And the way some of these young QB's have caught fire, Terry's value may increase no matter what else they do at WR.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t worry much about whether a WR is the WR1 on his team anymore. Most offenses can support at least two. Sometimes it’s a positive to have another weapon for defenses to account for, even. The decrease in quantity is offset an increase in quality. WFT could trade for Julio tomorrow and I wouldn’t drop Terry in my rankings.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I've not been that impressed with Jacobs, personally. I don't get the whole games for Vegas most weeks only what they show on redzone, but it seems like more than half time Redzone cuts to a nice Raiders run and I'm thinking "wow Jacobs looked really good and explosive there" it turns out it was Booker on the carry.
He's a fine player, but I am reasonably confident that if he went down with injury Booker could come in and the production they got out of him would be virtually indistinguishable.
On the flipside I think Terry is just about the most underrated player in dynasty. How many WRs can we truly say are QB proof, with confidence? Terry and Hopkins? I don't know how much Adams production would fall off if Rodgers went down, or Tyreek's would fall off if Mahomes went down, etc. But Terry could be catching balls from your favorite FBG staffer and he'd still go for 7 catches and 100 yards with a 50% chance of a TD.
Positional scarcity evens it out for sure as we can say it's team dependent but by far the most likely scenario for just about every team in every league is that they need RBs and have plenty of WRs, so I think that makes it fair. I just have a really hard time selling Terry as I think his trade value does not accurately reflect how good he is as a player.
He's a fine player, but I am reasonably confident that if he went down with injury Booker could come in and the production they got out of him would be virtually indistinguishable.
On the flipside I think Terry is just about the most underrated player in dynasty. How many WRs can we truly say are QB proof, with confidence? Terry and Hopkins? I don't know how much Adams production would fall off if Rodgers went down, or Tyreek's would fall off if Mahomes went down, etc. But Terry could be catching balls from your favorite FBG staffer and he'd still go for 7 catches and 100 yards with a 50% chance of a TD.
Positional scarcity evens it out for sure as we can say it's team dependent but by far the most likely scenario for just about every team in every league is that they need RBs and have plenty of WRs, so I think that makes it fair. I just have a really hard time selling Terry as I think his trade value does not accurately reflect how good he is as a player.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I love McClaurin too so i understand your reluctance to trade him. You aren't going to get Jacobs for nothing though. Not sure if your other WR are appealing enough but you could try offering Jefferson instead, but he might be the next big thing. He looks like he is going to have a better rookie season than Terry did. Maybe thats worse than losing Terry.Struggling with this offer...as I'm WFT homer.
Give: McLaurin and 1st (guessing 1.7-1.10 Range)
Get: Jacobs
I NEED RB help...but is my homerism clouding my judgement, can't seem to pull the trigger....(I have McLaurin, Evans, Diontae Johnson, JuJu, Jefferson, Jeudy, Crowder, Hardman at WR)
Fair trade for Jacobs over an overpay since McLaurin is better than Jerry Rice & Randy Moss put together?
I doubt Evans or Juedy get it done but I suppose you could try starting there and see what they say.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Jacobs isn't much better than Montgomery in my eyes. More volume, sure.
But I wouldn't trade McLaurin straight up, much less add a first.
But I wouldn't trade McLaurin straight up, much less add a first.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Maybe we should be buying Booker. He’s top 6 in big run rate, true YPC, YPT, Yards created per touch, and production premium. Solid PFF grade, too. It’s a contract year and he’s likely earned himself high-end backup money. Could a team see him as a viable lead in an RBBC?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW I have always thought Booker could be a lead back for an offense. He is a complete player does everything well. I never really understood why he failed in Denver.
He has a lot better supporting cast around him now than he had there.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Aaron Jones. Anyone??
I have asked peoples thoughts in multiple places with zero responses so far.
Thoughts on his value in terms of future picks?
Thoughts on whether or not he stays in Green Bay?
I have asked peoples thoughts in multiple places with zero responses so far.
Thoughts on his value in terms of future picks?
Thoughts on whether or not he stays in Green Bay?
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. Strong words. I thought the evidence pointed the other way. Radically.
That's a really tough one because they just signed their LT and somebody else to big deals, which could count against him staying. But A.J. Dillon, heir apparent, has done absolutely nothing this season and Jones is proving his value on the field. That said, it's hard to trust a front office situation where there's a guy with second-round draft capital sitting right behind you at RB.
His value in terms of future picks? Two firsts, at least.
By the DLF calc, one that uses ADP, Jones ranks similarly to these players, clocking in at 620 or so.
Jonathan Taylor RB IND [584.9]
Calvin Ridley WR ATL [593.8]
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL [602.4]
Derrick Henry RB TEN [628.3]
Nick Chubb RB CLE [630.0]
Tyreek Hill WR KCC [653.1]
Miles Sanders RB PHI [681.8]
Michael Thomas WR NOS [684.7]
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EthnicFury
Footballguy
As someone who owns both I don’t think I’d add much to Jefferson to get miles. Not sure I’d give jj for miles straight up, and I like Miles a lot
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade McLaurin straight up either, but I have Jacobs way ahead of Montgomery.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
5 of 9 games Jacobs has averaged less than 4 ypc. Like I said, he's good for fantasy because of volume. But there's a downside to that too - I think he'll have a short career due to over use.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
That's the thing. If he leaves Green Bay I would imagine his value takes a hit no matter where he ends up. He seems to have a nice connection with Rogers.rockaction said:
Unrestricted free agent. Cant imagine he stays
rockaction
Footballguy
Well, yeah, but who is going to break the bank for a twenty-six year-old RB? Want my guess and please take it for what it's worth, which is just a guess? Chances are the team and him reach a prove-it deal for two years with guaranteed money and then two option years. He's proven to be very, very valuable in that offense, but his value is in that offense. I see definite impetus for both parties to hardball each other yet meet somewhere in the middle of what they think they should get out of the deal.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I dont think anyone will break the bank but it seems somewhat obvious if money is a deciding factor for Jones, he won't be a packer
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm still not sure if Bakhtiari being signed is good or bad for Jones. It could be bad because they just spent a bunch of money. Or it could be good because maybe they were waiting to sign Jones until they made sure they got Bakhtiari locked up first. Sort of like the Rams where they focused on Goff, then Donald, then Ramsey, then Kupp, then Woods and everyone had to wait their turn.
And the Rams I think are the best hope for why they might re-sign him. The salary cap seems like a mythical thing that can easily be dismissed with some even moderately clever accounting at this point.
The Rams weren't supposed to be able to afford both Goff and Donald, yet they signed both to huge deals. Then that meant Woods and Kupp were surely gone, but just for fun let's throw in the league's most giant DB contract in there just for fun via trade as well. Gurley was uncuttable with the dead cap penalties whoops they just cut him anyways. Bye bye Kupp and Woods. Oh wait Kupp just re-signed, no way Woods does now oops there's a Woods contract as well.
The Rams were at the bottom of the league in cap space and then signed 5 huge contracts in spite of that. Everyone told us they could maybe afford 1 of those guys and they signed all 5, and somehow that has left them with the 14th most cap space in the NFL at this point.
It's voodoo. If GB wants to keep Jones I have little doubt they can figure out a way to do it.
If Jones does walk, Miami seems like a potential good landing spot for FF purposes with random JAGs putting up pretty nice numbers there and the coaches seeming rather committed to funneling the work through a single workhorse back.
And the Rams I think are the best hope for why they might re-sign him. The salary cap seems like a mythical thing that can easily be dismissed with some even moderately clever accounting at this point.
The Rams weren't supposed to be able to afford both Goff and Donald, yet they signed both to huge deals. Then that meant Woods and Kupp were surely gone, but just for fun let's throw in the league's most giant DB contract in there just for fun via trade as well. Gurley was uncuttable with the dead cap penalties whoops they just cut him anyways. Bye bye Kupp and Woods. Oh wait Kupp just re-signed, no way Woods does now oops there's a Woods contract as well.
The Rams were at the bottom of the league in cap space and then signed 5 huge contracts in spite of that. Everyone told us they could maybe afford 1 of those guys and they signed all 5, and somehow that has left them with the 14th most cap space in the NFL at this point.
It's voodoo. If GB wants to keep Jones I have little doubt they can figure out a way to do it.
If Jones does walk, Miami seems like a potential good landing spot for FF purposes with random JAGs putting up pretty nice numbers there and the coaches seeming rather committed to funneling the work through a single workhorse back.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Who's going to pay him and make him a three-down back? Let's come up with a list of teams that are in the market. Let's make it a big exercise and suss out the market for general landing spots, too.
AFC
Jets: They likely aren't paying for another twenty-six year-old running back after Le'Veon Bell. La'Mical Perine probably not the answer, but will likely build via draft picks.
Pats: Harris, Burkhead, White, the tendency to go RBBC.
Miami: As Free BaGeL noted above, that's potential.
Buffalo: Moss and Singletary are still on rookie deals. Still a situation to monitor if they're close and the only thing stopping them is at RB.
Pittsburgh: Very possible. Conner is up after this year. Snell and McFarland are either incapable or not three-down guys.
Cleveland: Chubb and Hunt, Hunt and Chubb
Cincinnati: Mixon and Bernard
Baltimore: Edwards and Dobbins and Hill and oh my! Not going there.
Tennessee: King Henry and seconds
Houston: David and Duke Johnson are there. Depending on contracts, possible potential
Jacksonville: Probably not in market to address RB need with Robinson there, but there's no draft capital behind him, so...
Indianapolis: Wilkins, Hines, Taylor, Mack if he comes back from Achilles problems
Las Vegas: Jacobs
KC: CEH and D. Williams will be back if he wants
Denver: Gordon and Lindsay. Both have a year left or more.
LAC: Ekeler just signed a new deal. Plus Kelley, Jackson, Ballage (Who would have thought that?)
NFC
Dallas: Not likely with Elliott and Pollard there and under contract. Don't think Dallas has a cap out with Ezekiel until after next year, so...
New York Giants: Barkley down, still unlikely. Gallman there and Barkley on the mend likely means Giants are in wait mode on RB.
Redskins: Gibson and McKissic. Possibility there.
Philadelphia: Have stressed they want to make Miles Sanders their workhorse
GB: Duh
Chicago: Montgomery is there and ineffective, though their line issues are the biggest ones they face IMO.
Minnesota: Dalvin
Detroit: D'Andre and Kerryon are likely preventing Jones from seeking employment there
Atanta: Interesting. Gurley on deal for this year only. Ito, Hill, and others uninspiring. Won't use high draft capital on back as other needs press.
Tampa Bay: RoJo or bust? Possibility. RoJo is the fourth-rated back in DYAR, according to Football Outsiders. Love to see his PFF grade.
New Orleans: Kamara and Murray. No need
Carolina: McCaffrey and Davis are solid beyond belief
La Rams: Henderson, Akers, and Brown. Too much draft capital in Akers and Henderson.
Seattle: Possible. Is Carson on the last year of his deal? Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer aren't going to cut it.
AZ: Now this is interesting. Drake is on transition tag, meaning he's really in his last year of his contract. Edmonds has another year. Ward and Foster are the backups. Could see it
SF: Possibility also. Mostert, McKinnon, Coleman, and others have not overwhelmed for one reason or another (injuries for Mostert) and Hasty just broke his collarbone. Could see it, but SF loves undrafted free agents and late-round guys. Shanahans going to Shanahan.
So that's that for potential landing spots should he enter free agency. That probably could be a general guide for RB situations, too.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Thanks for breaking that out.
Looks like quite a few good potential RB landing spots next year for the free agents and incoming rookies.
Miami, Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta, and Seattle would all be great spots for whomever lands there. Possibly Buffalo and Tampa as well if they want to bring someone better in to make a real push.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Does Antonio Brown have any dynasty PPR value yet? I would not mind cashing out
rockaction
Footballguy
It's been discussed. Most people thought third round -- I think it would take at least that if it was me. If you've had Brown, you're used to zeros, so there's no real impetus to move him for peanuts when the upside is so big. He's just getting underway with Brady. A late second is not out of the question if you're really lucky, though, because he was reported to have problems with a security cam in Florida. No bueno. It's really how much you value later picks.
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
That's what people paid for him and thought. A second is what, if I were in it, I might pay. Might. No more than that. Not at age 32 and given his troubled past.
coyote5
Footballguy
Thing is, Williams has looked pretty good as well this year and I'm sure he would take a lot less than Jones to stay.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Excellent analysis, except I expect the Jets to clean house after this season. New GM, New HC, all of that. Jones would be in interesting guy to bring in to build on. That said, they have much, much more pressing needs.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I really don't know what is going to happen with Aaron Jones.
I think the move to draft AJ Dillon as high as they did means they will want to use him next year. He looks more like a replacement for Williams than Jones to me, but I am pretty sure the Packers keep Williams. He will be cheaper for them to sign than Jones will be most likely.
I do agree with what FreeBaGel is saying about the salary cap. If Green Bay wants to keep Jones they will be able to find a way. Its just a matter of priorities. Green Bay looks set up to let a RB walk.
If they do let Jones walk then I think Green Bay will try to acquire another RB to replace his role of lightning in the offense. I don't think Williams or Dillon are that.
As far as the tour around the league goes for potential landing spots, I can see Aaron Jones being good in Miami. I think they have made enough progress that they are ready for a good RB now. If they went the free agent route that would allow them to keep using picks in other areas.
Maybe Jones stays and Dillon becomes a wasted pick is the other way I could see this going.
I think the move to draft AJ Dillon as high as they did means they will want to use him next year. He looks more like a replacement for Williams than Jones to me, but I am pretty sure the Packers keep Williams. He will be cheaper for them to sign than Jones will be most likely.
I do agree with what FreeBaGel is saying about the salary cap. If Green Bay wants to keep Jones they will be able to find a way. Its just a matter of priorities. Green Bay looks set up to let a RB walk.
If they do let Jones walk then I think Green Bay will try to acquire another RB to replace his role of lightning in the offense. I don't think Williams or Dillon are that.
As far as the tour around the league goes for potential landing spots, I can see Aaron Jones being good in Miami. I think they have made enough progress that they are ready for a good RB now. If they went the free agent route that would allow them to keep using picks in other areas.
Maybe Jones stays and Dillon becomes a wasted pick is the other way I could see this going.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
At any point do they care what Rodgers wants? Draft a QB round 1 and then let his 2nd biggest playmaker walk?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
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