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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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10 hours ago, InDitkaWeTrust said:

Lots of good discussion on young WRs in this thread!  How do you guys start to determine the trading point for your aging (28+) WRs?  I've been fortunate to collect a good group (Hopkins, M Thomas, and Tyreek) along with a few younger guys like Dionte.  At some point the younger guys will surpass the older guys and I'm wondering what your strateg(ies) might be.

I am usually acquiring these aging but proven WR when they reach 28 because I can get them for below their actual value from owners focused on exit strategy and prioritizing age over points.

I tend to roster a lot of WR though. So there is always someone else waiting in the wings if one of my guys does fade out.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Fixed

6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

We still don't believe in Ronald Jones, right?

Pretty sure I can get the 2.1-ish for him. That's about as high as can be expected, I think.

Or is he a hold?

I am not sure?

I saw that big run he made recently several times. He is running really hard but the tackling was pretty bad too. 

I sort of feel similarly about Jones and I do DeVantae Parker, just not to as much of an extreme. A player I did like from charting him in college but who I made some irrational excuses for as well in regards to his lack of passing production. I think we have learned since then that there were flaws in his abilities as a receiver as part of the reason for that.

I was reading Pewter report and so on almost every day back then and nary a peep about Jones from beat writers leading into his rookie season. Can't say I have seen such a dearth of rookie fluff pieces as I did with Ronald Jones. 

He has rejuvenated his career this year though and currently has the 3rd most rushing yards. and he is 9th in rushing yards per game.

With the lack of RB putting up any useful numbers this year I would think you could do better than that in return for him, but the stink eye on him is pretty universal I think, so maybe not.

This is the kind of situation I want to buy actually because it could turn out being a bargain. So for you I guess that means he is a hold.

I do kind of feel like Brady has created such a threat to opposing defenses that Jones is benefiting from and I wonder what happens to that if Brady isn't there next season. but whatever it is he is playing a lot better this year and will be going into a contract year in 2021.

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13 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I wonder what happens to that if Brady isn't there next season. but whatever it is he is playing a lot better this year and will be going into a contract year in 2021.

I think its about 99% certain Brady plays next year unless he has a career ending injury. 

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah then Jones should be fine I guess.

A couple weeks ago I was wondering if Brady would play well again.

I'm not a Brady homer or hater, but I think it makes sense that he and the entire offense needed time to gel, know each other, etc. They had no preseason, and Brady is in a new system. I think all the Bucs skill players are more likely to continue to improve as the season goes on than decline. Familiarity matters. 

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What's the difference between Godwin and Kittle in TE premium? Godwin's value has come down to earth a bit this year, but he's still looking very good when healthy. He's been fighting injuries all year long and right now he's outside the top50 WR's in PPR but his value is way higher than that right? 

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Struggling with this offer...as I'm WFT homer. 

Give: McLaurin and 1st (guessing 1.7-1.10 Range) 

Get: Jacobs 

I NEED RB help...but is my homerism clouding my judgement, can't seem to pull the trigger....(I have McLaurin, Evans, Diontae Johnson, JuJu, Jefferson, Jeudy, Crowder, Hardman at WR)

Fair trade for Jacobs over an overpay since McLaurin is better than Jerry Rice & Randy Moss put together? ;)

 

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8 hours ago, Zyphros said:

What's the difference between Godwin and Kittle in TE premium? Godwin's value has come down to earth a bit this year, but he's still looking very good when healthy. He's been fighting injuries all year long and right now he's outside the top50 WR's in PPR but his value is way higher than that right? 

That's wild you should ask because I thought of a Godwin/Kittle straight up swap (not TE premium) earlier in the week to the Kittle owner that needs a receiver and decided not to send that offer. I just sort of put in my back pocket. But I'm a Godwin honk, so there's that.

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15 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Struggling with this offer...as I'm WFT homer. 

Give: McLaurin and 1st (guessing 1.7-1.10 Range) 

Get: Jacobs 

I NEED RB help...but is my homerism clouding my judgement, can't seem to pull the trigger....(I have McLaurin, Evans, Diontae Johnson, JuJu, Jefferson, Jeudy, Crowder, Hardman at WR)

Fair trade for Jacobs over an overpay since McLaurin is better than Jerry Rice & Randy Moss put together? ;)

 

Too much, IMO. Jacobs hasn't broken anything long in forever. See what Booker is doing with his touches behind that line. There's no home run in Jacobs. That said, he's about coach usage/volume for as long as the coach decides that's the way it will be, and the coach has plenty of security.

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33 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Too much, IMO. Jacobs hasn't broken anything long in forever. See what Booker is doing with his touches behind that line. There's no home run in Jacobs. That said, he's about coach usage/volume for as long as the coach decides that's the way it will be, and the coach has plenty of security.

Valid concerns, but every time I watch him he looks good to me. I'd be looking to buy if owners are scared off by Booker or his YPC. I love Terry, so I don't know if I could pull the trigger, but the value is about right, IMO. I'd be stoked if I could land him for Juju and a mid/late first. That would be my first counter.

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

Valid concerns, but every time I watch him he looks good to me. I'd be looking to buy if owners are scared off by Booker or his YPC. I love Terry, so I don't know if I could pull the trigger, but the value is about right, IMO. I'd be stoked if I could land him for Juju and a mid/late first. That would be my first counter.

I'd have a real tough time parting with McLaurin and a first in PPR formats for most guys, so there's that. I didn't mean to run a truck through Jacobs; I'm just pointing out a concern I have about him. He's really good otherwise. 

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10 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'd have a real tough time parting with McLaurin and a first in PPR formats for most guys, so there's that. I didn't mean to run a truck through Jacobs; I'm just pointing out a concern I have about him. He's really good otherwise. 

That's kind of where I am on him. I think he's a very solid RB, but not elite. Kind of like Forte all those years in Chicago, just a better situation than talent. But when you see Booker look as good behind the same line it does make you pause....but I like that Gruden feeds him for sure. 

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1 minute ago, ffmail4me said:

That's kind of where I am on him. I think he's a very solid RB, but not elite. Kind of like Forte all those years in Chicago, just a better situation than talent. But when you see Booker look as good behind the same line it does make you pause....but I like that Gruden feeds him for sure. 

Depends how much money or what kind of bragging rights are at stake in this league, but all other things constant, why not keep the guy you want to root for if that's what your gut tells you?

That said, WFT is sure to draft a receiver in the offseason. They can't go running through the season with this again, can they? I mean Antonio Gandy-Golden can't get off of the IR and wasn't having much of an impact when he was there. So Terry's days as a surefire WR1 are determined by whatever capital investment the team makes in other guys coming out in the draft. But that's true of everybody in the league, save for the situation that Jacobs and his first-round draft capital finds himself. He's a likely lock at RB for the Raiders for the foreseeable future, though weirder stuff has happened.

I just ran a calc from DLF. There's about a hundred fifty point difference favoring the guy who wants the first rounder. First hunches appear correct here. He's a Pittman, Slayton, or Gallup away from even value.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

I just ran a calc from DLF. There's about a hundred fifty point difference favoring the guy who wants the first rounder. First hunches appear correct here. He's a Pittman, Slayton, or Gallup away from even value.

I just couldn't do the trade offered, but came out with what I think is a fair counter. Added to his offer me giving Jeudy and him adding AJ Brown. Thoughts? 

I give: McLaurin, 1st, Jeudy 
I get: Jacobs, AJB

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13 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I just couldn't do the trade offered, but came out with what I think is a fair counter. Added to his offer me giving Jeudy and him adding AJ Brown. Thoughts? 

I give: McLaurin, 1st, Jeudy 
I get: Jacobs, AJB

Now your offer is light, IMO.

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On 11/12/2020 at 8:34 AM, Concept Coop said:

Who were your favorite players to own in your time playing?

AP, Newton and Gronk are all up there, but Shady was my favorite. Edit: Forgot Kamara. 

AP was my first ever dynasty pick, but was the obvious startup 1.01 and required no foresight on my part. He had multiple 80 yard TDs that year, IIRC. What a stud.

I traded Miles Austin for Cam Newton a game into his rookie season in a non-PPR league. Rookie Cam Newton was a cheat code. 

Gronk Smash.

The market wasn’t drafting 28 YO RBs in the first round of startup drafts anymore, but still wasn’t discounting 25-26 YO RBs enough (or placing enough premium on 21-23 YOs). Shady was 22, coming off of a huge sophomore season, and was still being drafted behind guys like AP and CJ2K. I traded Gore and Stevie Johnson for him in one league and drafted him 1.01 and 1.03 in two startups that year. I took some flack for it in my leagues and on this site - and it was fun being a year early and watching everyone come around. 

You?

Aaron Rodgers. I was in a dynasty startup the first season he was the starter in Green Bay. 16 team league and I waited a loooong time to draft my 1st QB. I got laughed at during the draft and for weeks after....until I won the league with Rodgers as the centerpiece of my team.

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14 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

That's kind of where I am on him. I think he's a very solid RB, but not elite. Kind of like Forte all those years in Chicago, just a better situation than talent. But when you see Booker look as good behind the same line it does make you pause....but I like that Gruden feeds him for sure. 

Jacobs is light years better than Booker. Booker can be solid behind a good line and does seem to have some pep in his step this year but Jacobs, although not the homerun speed, is showing elite vision and efficiency and seems to get the maximum out of every run that he is physically able to.

I agree he's not in that elite tier really but a super dependable low end RB1 that earns a lot of yards based on his talent.

As a major homer and Jacobs owner I wouldn't give him up for Terry and a 1st although it's a super fair offer but for the same reason I'd say don't give up Terry as a WFT homer. I mean how many productive fantasy options are there on that team? Hold him and enjoy the best of both worlds. Rooting for your real and fantasy team.

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16 hours ago, rockaction said:

Depends how much money or what kind of bragging rights are at stake in this league, but all other things constant, why not keep the guy you want to root for if that's what your gut tells you?

That said, WFT is sure to draft a receiver in the offseason. They can't go running through the season with this again, can they? I mean Antonio Gandy-Golden can't get off of the IR and wasn't having much of an impact when he was there. So Terry's days as a surefire WR1 are determined by whatever capital investment the team makes in other guys coming out in the draft. But that's true of everybody in the league, save for the situation that Jacobs and his first-round draft capital finds himself. He's a likely lock at RB for the Raiders for the foreseeable future, though weirder stuff has happened.

I just ran a calc from DLF. There's about a hundred fifty point difference favoring the guy who wants the first rounder. First hunches appear correct here. He's a Pittman, Slayton, or Gallup away from even value.

WFT will probably also draft a QB. And the way some of these young QB's have caught fire, Terry's value may increase no matter what else they do at WR.

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20 minutes ago, kutta said:

WFT will probably also draft a QB. And the way some of these young QB's have caught fire, Terry's value may increase no matter what else they do at WR.

I don’t worry much about whether a WR is the WR1 on his team anymore. Most offenses can support at least two. Sometimes it’s a positive to have another weapon for defenses to account for, even. The decrease in quantity is offset an increase  in quality. WFT could trade for Julio tomorrow and I wouldn’t drop Terry in my rankings.

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I've not been that impressed with Jacobs, personally.  I don't get the whole games for Vegas most weeks only what they show on redzone, but it seems like more than half time Redzone cuts to a nice Raiders run and I'm thinking "wow Jacobs looked really good and explosive there" it turns out it was Booker on the carry.

He's a fine player, but I am reasonably confident that if he went down with injury Booker could come in and the production they got out of him would be virtually indistinguishable.

On the flipside I think Terry is just about the most underrated player in dynasty.  How many WRs can we truly say are QB proof, with confidence?  Terry and Hopkins?  I don't know how much Adams production would fall off if Rodgers went down, or Tyreek's would fall off if Mahomes went down, etc.  But Terry could be catching balls from your favorite FBG staffer and he'd still go for 7 catches and 100 yards with a 50% chance of a TD.

Positional scarcity evens it out for sure as we can say it's team dependent but by far the most likely scenario for just about every team in every league is that they need RBs and have plenty of WRs, so I think that makes it fair.  I just have a really hard time selling Terry as I think his trade value does not accurately reflect how good he is as a player.

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18 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Struggling with this offer...as I'm WFT homer. 

Give: McLaurin and 1st (guessing 1.7-1.10 Range) 

Get: Jacobs 

I NEED RB help...but is my homerism clouding my judgement, can't seem to pull the trigger....(I have McLaurin, Evans, Diontae Johnson, JuJu, Jefferson, Jeudy, Crowder, Hardman at WR)

Fair trade for Jacobs over an overpay since McLaurin is better than Jerry Rice & Randy Moss put together? ;)

 

I love McClaurin too so i understand your reluctance to trade him. You aren't going to get Jacobs for nothing though. Not sure if your other WR are appealing enough but you could try offering Jefferson instead, but he might be the next big thing. He looks like he is going to have a better rookie season than Terry did. Maybe thats worse than losing Terry.

I doubt Evans or Juedy get it done but I suppose you could try starting there and see what they say.

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15 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I've not been that impressed with Jacobs, personally.  I don't get the whole games for Vegas most weeks only what they show on redzone, but it seems like more than half time Redzone cuts to a nice Raiders run and I'm thinking "wow Jacobs looked really good and explosive there" it turns out it was Booker on the carry.

He's a fine player, but I am reasonably confident that if he went down with injury Booker could come in and the production they got out of him would be virtually indistinguishable.

On the flipside I think Terry is just about the most underrated player in dynasty.  How many WRs can we truly say are QB proof, with confidence?  Terry and Hopkins?  I don't know how much Adams production would fall off if Rodgers went down, or Tyreek's would fall off if Mahomes went down, etc.  But Terry could be catching balls from your favorite FBG staffer and he'd still go for 7 catches and 100 yards with a 50% chance of a TD.

I dunno about that. Couch is pretty lazy.

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58 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I've not been that impressed with Jacobs, personally.  I don't get the whole games for Vegas most weeks only what they show on redzone, but it seems like more than half time Redzone cuts to a nice Raiders run and I'm thinking "wow Jacobs looked really good and explosive there" it turns out it was Booker on the carry.

He's a fine player, but I am reasonably confident that if he went down with injury Booker could come in and the production they got out of him would be virtually indistinguishable.

Maybe we should be buying Booker. He’s top 6 in big run rate, true YPC, YPT, Yards created per touch, and production premium. Solid PFF grade, too. It’s a contract year and he’s likely earned himself high-end backup money. Could a team see him as a viable lead in an RBBC?

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3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Maybe we should be buying Booker. He’s top 6 in big run rate, true YPC, YPT, Yards created per touch, and production premium. Solid PFF grade, too. It’s a contract year and he’s likely earned himself high-end backup money. Could a team see him as a viable lead in an RBBC?

FWIW I have always thought Booker could be a lead back for an offense. He is a complete player does everything well. I never really understood why he failed in Denver.

He has a lot better supporting cast around him now than he had there.

 

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4 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Jacobs isn't much better than Montgomery in my eyes. More volume, sure.

But I wouldn't trade McLaurin straight up, much less add a first.

Wow. Strong words. I thought the evidence pointed the other way. Radically.

5 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Aaron Jones.  Anyone??

I have asked peoples thoughts in multiple places with zero responses so far.

Thoughts on his value in terms of future picks?

Thoughts on whether or not he stays in Green Bay?

That's a really tough one because they just signed their LT and somebody else to big deals, which could count against him staying. But A.J. Dillon, heir apparent, has done absolutely nothing this season and Jones is proving his value on the field. That said, it's hard to trust a front office situation where there's a guy with second-round draft capital sitting right behind you at RB.

His value in terms of future picks? Two firsts, at least.

By the DLF calc, one that uses ADP, Jones ranks similarly to these players, clocking in at 620 or so.

Jonathan Taylor RB IND [584.9]
Calvin Ridley WR ATL [593.8]
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL [602.4]
Derrick Henry RB TEN [628.3]
Nick Chubb RB CLE [630.0]
Tyreek Hill WR KCC [653.1]
Miles Sanders RB PHI [681.8]
Michael Thomas WR NOS [684.7]

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

 

That's a really tough one because they just signed their LT and somebody else to big deals, which could count against him staying. But A.J. Dillon, heir apparent, has done absolutely nothing this season and Jones is proving his value on the field. That said, it's hard to trust a front office situation where there's a guy with second-round draft capital sitting right behind you at RB.

His value in terms of future picks? Two firsts, at least.

By the DLF calc, one that uses ADP, Jones ranks similarly to these players, clocking in at 620 or so.

Jonathan Taylor RB IND [584.9]
Calvin Ridley WR ATL [593.8]
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL [602.4]
Derrick Henry RB TEN [628.3]
Nick Chubb RB CLE [630.0]
Tyreek Hill WR KCC [653.1]
Miles Sanders RB PHI [681.8]
Michael Thomas WR NOS [684.7]

That's the thing.  If he leaves Green Bay I would imagine his value takes a hit no matter where he ends up.  He seems to have a nice connection with Rogers.  

Unrestricted free agent.  Cant imagine he stays

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4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

That's the thing.  If he leaves Green Bay I would imagine his value takes a hit no matter where he ends up.  He seems to have a nice connection with Rogers.  

Unrestricted free agent.  Cant imagine he stays

Well, yeah, but who is going to break the bank for a twenty-six year-old RB? Want my guess and please take it for what it's worth, which is just a guess? Chances are the team and him reach a prove-it deal for two years with guaranteed money and then two option years. He's proven to be very, very valuable in that offense, but his value is in that offense. I see definite impetus for both parties to hardball each other yet meet somewhere in the middle of what they think they should get out of the deal.

 

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1 hour ago, BigAl21 said:

Trying to move Miles in a 16 team league. Targeting some young WR front this class. 
jefferson +
Jeudy+
or would people consider trading Miles to get one of these guys straight up?

I offered Jeudy and my 1st (should be mid to late) for him and no response in one of my PPR dynasty leagues...

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Well, yeah, but who is going to break the bank for a twenty-six year-old RB? Want my guess and please take it for what it's worth, which is just a guess? Chances are the team and him reach a prove-it deal for two years with guaranteed money and then two option years. He's proven to be very, very valuable in that offense, but his value is in that offense. I see definite impetus for both parties to hardball each other yet meet somewhere in the middle of what they think they should get out of the deal.

 

I dont think anyone will break the bank but it seems somewhat obvious if money is a deciding factor for Jones, he won't be a packer

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I'm still not sure if Bakhtiari being signed is good or bad for Jones.  It could be bad because they just spent a bunch of money.  Or it could be good because maybe they were waiting to sign Jones until they made sure they got Bakhtiari locked up first.  Sort of like the Rams where they focused on Goff, then Donald, then Ramsey, then Kupp, then Woods and everyone had to wait their turn.

And the Rams I think are the best hope for why they might re-sign him.  The salary cap seems like a mythical thing that can easily be dismissed with some even moderately clever accounting at this point.

The Rams weren't supposed to be able to afford both Goff and Donald, yet they signed both to huge deals.  Then that meant Woods and Kupp were surely gone, but just for fun let's throw in the league's most giant DB contract in there just for fun via trade as well.  Gurley was uncuttable with the dead cap penalties whoops they just cut him anyways.  Bye bye Kupp and Woods.  Oh wait Kupp just re-signed, no way Woods does now oops there's a Woods contract as well.

The Rams were at the bottom of the league in cap space and then signed 5 huge contracts in spite of that.  Everyone told us they could maybe afford 1 of those guys and they signed all 5, and somehow that has left them with the 14th most cap space in the NFL at this point.

It's voodoo.  If GB wants to keep Jones I have little doubt they can figure out a way to do it.

If Jones does walk, Miami seems like a potential good landing spot for FF purposes with random JAGs putting up pretty nice numbers there and the coaches seeming rather committed to funneling the work through a single workhorse back.

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47 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I dont think anyone will break the bank but it seems somewhat obvious if money is a deciding factor for Jones, he won't be a packer

Who's going to pay him and make him a three-down back? Let's come up with a list of teams that are in the market. Let's make it a big exercise and suss out the market for general landing spots, too. 

AFC

Jets: They likely aren't paying for another twenty-six year-old running back after Le'Veon Bell. La'Mical Perine probably not the answer, but will likely build via draft picks.
Pats: Harris, Burkhead, White, the tendency to go RBBC.
Miami: As Free BaGeL noted above, that's potential.
Buffalo: Moss and Singletary are still on rookie deals. Still a situation to monitor if they're close and the only thing stopping them is at RB.

Pittsburgh: Very possible. Conner is up after this year. Snell and McFarland are either incapable or not three-down guys.
Cleveland: Chubb and Hunt, Hunt and Chubb
Cincinnati: Mixon and Bernard
Baltimore: Edwards and Dobbins and Hill and oh my! Not going there.

Tennessee: King Henry and seconds
Houston: David and Duke Johnson are there. Depending on contracts, possible potential
Jacksonville: Probably not in market to address RB need with Robinson there, but there's no draft capital behind him, so...
Indianapolis: Wilkins, Hines, Taylor, Mack if he comes back from Achilles problems

Las Vegas: Jacobs
KC: CEH and D. Williams will be back if he wants
Denver: Gordon and Lindsay. Both have a year left or more.
LAC: Ekeler just signed a new deal. Plus Kelley, Jackson, Ballage (Who would have thought that?)

NFC

Dallas: Not likely with Elliott and Pollard there and under contract. Don't think Dallas has a cap out with Ezekiel until after next year, so...
New York Giants: Barkley down, still unlikely. Gallman there and Barkley on the mend likely means Giants are in wait mode on RB.
Redskins: Gibson and McKissic. Possibility there.
Philadelphia: Have stressed they want to make Miles Sanders their workhorse

GB: Duh
Chicago: Montgomery is there and ineffective, though their line issues are the biggest ones they face IMO.
Minnesota: Dalvin
Detroit: D'Andre and Kerryon are likely preventing Jones from seeking employment there

Atanta: Interesting. Gurley on deal for this year only. Ito, Hill, and others uninspiring. Won't use high draft capital on back as other needs press.
Tampa Bay: RoJo or bust? Possibility. RoJo is the fourth-rated back in DYAR, according to Football Outsiders. Love to see his PFF grade.
New Orleans: Kamara and Murray. No need
Carolina: McCaffrey and Davis are solid beyond belief

La Rams: Henderson, Akers, and Brown. Too much draft capital in Akers and Henderson.
Seattle: Possible. Is Carson on the last year of his deal? Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer aren't going to cut it.
AZ: Now this is interesting. Drake is on transition tag, meaning he's really in his last year of his contract. Edmonds has another year. Ward and Foster are the backups. Could see it
SF: Possibility also. Mostert, McKinnon, Coleman, and others have not overwhelmed for one reason or another (injuries for Mostert) and Hasty just broke his collarbone. Could see it, but SF loves undrafted free agents and late-round guys. Shanahans going to Shanahan.

So that's that for potential landing spots should he enter free agency. That probably could be a general guide for RB situations, too.
 

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23 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Who's going to pay him and make him a three-down back? Let's come up with a list of teams that are in the market. Let's make it a big exercise and suss out the market for general landing spots, too. 

Thanks for breaking that out.

Looks like quite a few good potential RB landing spots next year for the free agents and incoming rookies.

Miami, Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta, and Seattle would all be great spots for whomever lands there.  Possibly Buffalo and Tampa as well if they want to bring someone better in to make a real push.

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24 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Does Antonio Brown have any dynasty PPR value yet? I would not mind cashing out

It's been discussed. Most people thought third round -- I think it would take at least that if it was me. If you've had Brown, you're used to zeros, so there's no real impetus to move him for peanuts when the upside is so big. He's just getting underway with Brady. A late second is not out of the question if you're really lucky, though, because he was reported to have problems with a security cam in Florida. No bueno. It's really how much you value later picks.

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13 minutes ago, rockaction said:

It's been discussed. Most people thought third round -- I think it would take at least that if it was me. If you've had Brown, you're used to zeros, so there's no real impetus to move him for peanuts when the upside is so big. He's just getting underway with Brady. A late second is not out of the question if you're really lucky, though, because he was reported to have problems with a security cam in Florida. No bueno. It's really how much you value later picks.

Just a 3rd? I think he is worth the hold even if you don't need a WR like myself.

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3 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Just a 3rd? I think he is worth the hold even if you don't need a WR like myself.

That's what people paid for him and thought. A second is what, if I were in it, I might pay. Might. No more than that. Not at age 32 and given his troubled past.

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm still not sure if Bakhtiari being signed is good or bad for Jones.  It could be bad because they just spent a bunch of money.  Or it could be good because maybe they were waiting to sign Jones until they made sure they got Bakhtiari locked up first.  Sort of like the Rams where they focused on Goff, then Donald, then Ramsey, then Kupp, then Woods and everyone had to wait their turn.

And the Rams I think are the best hope for why they might re-sign him.  The salary cap seems like a mythical thing that can easily be dismissed with some even moderately clever accounting at this point.

The Rams weren't supposed to be able to afford both Goff and Donald, yet they signed both to huge deals.  Then that meant Woods and Kupp were surely gone, but just for fun let's throw in the league's most giant DB contract in there just for fun via trade as well.  Gurley was uncuttable with the dead cap penalties whoops they just cut him anyways.  Bye bye Kupp and Woods.  Oh wait Kupp just re-signed, no way Woods does now oops there's a Woods contract as well.

The Rams were at the bottom of the league in cap space and then signed 5 huge contracts in spite of that.  Everyone told us they could maybe afford 1 of those guys and they signed all 5, and somehow that has left them with the 14th most cap space in the NFL at this point.

It's voodoo.  If GB wants to keep Jones I have little doubt they can figure out a way to do it.

If Jones does walk, Miami seems like a potential good landing spot for FF purposes with random JAGs putting up pretty nice numbers there and the coaches seeming rather committed to funneling the work through a single workhorse back.

Thing is, Williams has looked pretty good as well this year and I'm sure he would take a lot less than Jones to stay.

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17 hours ago, rockaction said:

Who's going to pay him and make him a three-down back? Let's come up with a list of teams that are in the market. Let's make it a big exercise and suss out the market for general landing spots, too. 

AFC

Jets: They likely aren't paying for another twenty-six year-old running back after Le'Veon Bell. La'Mical Perine probably not the answer, but will likely build via draft picks.
Pats: Harris, Burkhead, White, the tendency to go RBBC.
Miami: As Free BaGeL noted above, that's potential.
Buffalo: Moss and Singletary are still on rookie deals. Still a situation to monitor if they're close and the only thing stopping them is at RB.

Pittsburgh: Very possible. Conner is up after this year. Snell and McFarland are either incapable or not three-down guys.
Cleveland: Chubb and Hunt, Hunt and Chubb
Cincinnati: Mixon and Bernard
Baltimore: Edwards and Dobbins and Hill and oh my! Not going there.

Tennessee: King Henry and seconds
Houston: David and Duke Johnson are there. Depending on contracts, possible potential
Jacksonville: Probably not in market to address RB need with Robinson there, but there's no draft capital behind him, so...
Indianapolis: Wilkins, Hines, Taylor, Mack if he comes back from Achilles problems

Las Vegas: Jacobs
KC: CEH and D. Williams will be back if he wants
Denver: Gordon and Lindsay. Both have a year left or more.
LAC: Ekeler just signed a new deal. Plus Kelley, Jackson, Ballage (Who would have thought that?)

NFC

Dallas: Not likely with Elliott and Pollard there and under contract. Don't think Dallas has a cap out with Ezekiel until after next year, so...
New York Giants: Barkley down, still unlikely. Gallman there and Barkley on the mend likely means Giants are in wait mode on RB.
Redskins: Gibson and McKissic. Possibility there.
Philadelphia: Have stressed they want to make Miles Sanders their workhorse

GB: Duh
Chicago: Montgomery is there and ineffective, though their line issues are the biggest ones they face IMO.
Minnesota: Dalvin
Detroit: D'Andre and Kerryon are likely preventing Jones from seeking employment there

Atanta: Interesting. Gurley on deal for this year only. Ito, Hill, and others uninspiring. Won't use high draft capital on back as other needs press.
Tampa Bay: RoJo or bust? Possibility. RoJo is the fourth-rated back in DYAR, according to Football Outsiders. Love to see his PFF grade.
New Orleans: Kamara and Murray. No need
Carolina: McCaffrey and Davis are solid beyond belief

La Rams: Henderson, Akers, and Brown. Too much draft capital in Akers and Henderson.
Seattle: Possible. Is Carson on the last year of his deal? Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer aren't going to cut it.
AZ: Now this is interesting. Drake is on transition tag, meaning he's really in his last year of his contract. Edmonds has another year. Ward and Foster are the backups. Could see it
SF: Possibility also. Mostert, McKinnon, Coleman, and others have not overwhelmed for one reason or another (injuries for Mostert) and Hasty just broke his collarbone. Could see it, but SF loves undrafted free agents and late-round guys. Shanahans going to Shanahan.

So that's that for potential landing spots should he enter free agency. That probably could be a general guide for RB situations, too.
 

Excellent analysis, except I expect the Jets to clean house after this season.  New GM, New HC, all of that.  Jones would be in interesting guy to bring in to build on.  That said, they have much, much more pressing needs.

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