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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

Concept Coop said:
DLF November ADP has CEH (4) and Jonathan Taylor (5) as top 5 RBs and first round startup picks. Both guys are valuable, and the position group as a whole is lacking; but how could you leave a startup with either of them as your best asset and feel good about it today? Especially Taylor.

Am I alone in thinking that’s rich for these two? 
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No I agree that both of them are ranked too high. It is the same with the mixxelle ADP as well.

You can at least make a case for it with CEH based on Andy Reids track record with top RBs. While most of these good finishes have been lower top 12 RB performances, some of them have been top 5 finishes as well.

Still no way I would take either of them ahead of Dalvin Cook and there are WR I would take before them as well.

The success of rookie RBs in 2017 and some in years since then seems to have caused an over adjustment in RB value compared to other positions.

 
Sent the entire league trade offers for a 3rd for Perine and not a single taker. Might be more about not trying to help the guy who's won the league the last 2 years ;)

 
Some feedback on the topics most discussed the past two pages, without quoting a bunch of people: 

1. I agree Waller needs to be on these top-8 TE Lists, it’s criminal how little respect he gets and he’s just kept doing it this season while the position implodes around him in fantasy. 
 

2. A top competitor in one of my (1 QB) dynasty leagues two weeks ago dealt Lamar for Herbert and Chase Edmonds. I thought he was panicking and jumping the gun at the time and as the defending champ, I was pleased to see my top competition do that.
 

Now a couple weeks later I’m not 100% sure, but I still lean that it was a little impulsive, as Herbert doesn’t have THAT much tape out there for defenses to study...but as someone who has always advocated for “overpaying” for a stud as they emerge on the gamble that they’ll be worth even more in a month, I respect it big time. I did the same thing last year dealing Watson for Murray+ once I’d seen enough to be comfortable that he passed the eye test and that the athleticism translated. 

 
Darren Waller averaged 14 points per game last season which was the 5th best in 2019 and he was number 2 in total points.

This year he is averaging 14.1 points per game which is 3rd best and he is number 2 in total points.

He is the top receiver for the Raiders and Carr is playing very well right now.

I can't really see him being ranked lower than 3rd for TE right now even if you don't like that he is 28 years old.

 
Biabreakable said:
Darren Waller averaged 14 points per game last season which was the 5th best in 2019 and he was number 2 in total points.

This year he is averaging 14.1 points per game which is 3rd best and he is number 2 in total points.

He is the top receiver for the Raiders and Carr is playing very well right now.

I can't really see him being ranked lower than 3rd for TE right now even if you don't like that he is 28 years old.
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I prefer Hockenson. In my standard PPR league Waller is only outscoring Hock by 1.2 PPG. Maybe a healthy Golladay eats into his targets, but maybe a LVR WR or two step up and do the same to Waller. 14 PPG is really good production for the position, but not enough for me to overlook the 5 year gap between Waller and Hockenson, considering Hock has a decent chance to turn into a 14 PPG guys himself, IMO.

But I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Waller though. A 1 - 2 PPG is a sizable difference, measured against baseline TE production. I’d just be willing to bet on Hockenson closing the gap soon enough. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
2. A top competitor in one of my (1 QB) dynasty leagues two weeks ago dealt Lamar for Herbert and Chase Edmonds. I thought he was panicking and jumping the gun at the time and as the defending champ, I was pleased to see my top competition do that.
 

Now a couple weeks later I’m not 100% sure, but I still lean that it was a little impulsive, as Herbert doesn’t have THAT much tape out there for defenses to study...but as someone who has always advocated for “overpaying” for a stud as they emerge on the gamble that they’ll be worth even more in a month, I respect it big time. I did the same thing last year dealing Watson for Murray+ once I’d seen enough to be comfortable that he passed the eye test and that the athleticism translated. 
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4 or 6 pt passing TD? 

I don’t think we need to worry about the league “figuring out” Justin Herbert. He’s an elite talent for the position. I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t be able to adjust if forced to, as the game looks easy to him right now. He’s a top 4 or 5 dynasty QB for me. 

Sadly I traded him away last week. It gutted me, but QB value is capped in single QB, 4pt leagues. Added him to Diggs (and David Johnson) for Miles Sanders. 
 

 
Concept Coop said:
4 or 6 pt passing TD? 

I don’t think we need to worry about the league “figuring out” Justin Herbert. He’s an elite talent for the position. I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t be able to adjust if forced to, as the game looks easy to him right now. He’s a top 4 or 5 dynasty QB for me. 

Sadly I traded him away last week. It gutted me, but QB value is capped in single QB, 4pt leagues. Added him to Diggs (and David Johnson) for Miles Sanders. 
 
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4, with some distance scoring above 60 yards (5 for 60-80, 6 for 80+).

I agree Herbert looks like a top 5 dynasty QB, it just comes naturally to him. 

 
Concept Coop said:
I prefer Hockenson. In my standard PPR league Waller is only outscoring Hock by 1.2 PPG. Maybe a healthy Golladay eats into his targets, but maybe a LVR WR or two step up and do the same to Waller. 14 PPG is really good production for the position, but not enough for me to overlook the 5 year gap between Waller and Hockenson, considering Hock has a decent chance to turn into a 14 PPG guys himself, IMO.

But I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Waller though. A 1 - 2 PPG is a sizable difference, measured against baseline TE production. I’d just be willing to bet on Hockenson closing the gap soon enough. 
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Hockenson has been good as well and the age difference is significant.

So that makes sense to rank him ahead of Waller, the production being similar enough. I think they would be the same tier.

 
Concept Coop said:
4 or 6 pt passing TD? 

I don’t think we need to worry about the league “figuring out” Justin Herbert. He’s an elite talent for the position. I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t be able to adjust if forced to, as the game looks easy to him right now. He’s a top 4 or 5 dynasty QB for me. 

Sadly I traded him away last week. It gutted me, but QB value is capped in single QB, 4pt leagues. Added him to Diggs (and David Johnson) for Miles Sanders. 
 
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Supposedly, the Chargers have been simplifying the playbook for Herbert, like giving him half field reads. I'm not sure if that implies he will get better or worse as they expand his responsibility to knowing the entire playbook. Maybe it will have no effect; he was known for his intellect coming out of college.

 
Concept Coop said:
DLF November ADP has CEH (4) and Jonathan Taylor (5) as top 5 RBs and first round startup picks. Both guys are valuable, and the position group as a whole is lacking; but how could you leave a startup with either of them as your best asset and feel good about it today? Especially Taylor.

Am I alone in thinking that’s rich for these two? 
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I think DLF emphasizes value loss at RB after the first contract, so it seems that they skew for age in their evaluations. There may be some validity to that approach, but it can be overdone, and it probably is here. DLF had value cliff articles on Kamara and CMC over the summer, for example.

The current group of top RBs is largely past their first contracts and it makes sense for the dynasty community to look at who the next guys up may be. But I think there's a pretty good chance that CEH and Taylor are being elevated because of a vacuum in younger talent that is likely to be filled by other RBs in the next couple years. 

 
DAG said:
I think DLF emphasizes value loss at RB after the first contract, so it seems that they skew for age in their evaluations. There may be some validity to that approach, but it can be overdone, and it probably is here. DLF had value cliff articles on Kamara and CMC over the summer, for example.

The current group of top RBs is largely past their first contracts and it makes sense for the dynasty community to look at who the next guys up may be. But I think there's a pretty good chance that CEH and Taylor are being elevated because of a vacuum in younger talent that is likely to be filled by other RBs in the next couple years. 
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Good post. There is a vacuum - and I think this rookie RB class is the primary culprit. You’d expect that one of these guys would have established themselves as a sure thing. But all 5 of them - CEH, JT, Swift, Dobbins, Akers - have failed to live up to their redraft ADP so far. All 5 of them are in messy RBBCs.

I was as thrown off by this as the market - I’d be embarrassed to share some of the offers I was making for CEH and JT a few weeks ago - but the market is doubling down. Granted, as you point out, maybe DLF followers aren’t a perfect sample. But even if you’re worried about the second contract, how do you take these guys over someone like Miles Sanders?

 
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Concept Coop said:
Good post. There is a vacuum - and I think this rookie RB class is the primary culprit. You’d expect that one of these guys would have established themselves as a sure thing. But all 5 of them - CEH, JT, Swift, Dobbins, Akers - have failed to live up to their redraft ADP so far. All 5 of them are in messy RBBCs.

I was as thrown off by this as the market - I’d be embarrassed to share some of the offers I was making for CEH and JT a few weeks ago - but the market is doubling down. Granted, as you point out, maybe DLF followers aren’t a perfect sample. But even if you’re worried about the second contract, how do you take these guys over someone like Miles Sanders?
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Yeah I thought this RB draft class was good.

But looking at the NFL draft position and how they have performed so far, maybe this RB group is more similar to the 2013 and 2014 RB groups than any of us want to admit.

 
To me, Swift and Dobbins are the best runners of the class but in messy situations. I'm with all of you guys -- I think that this year's group of backs was overrated. The market shouldn't be holding firm on CEH or Taylor, especially with respect to a guy like Sanders. But the market is the market and I'm just one participant.

Steelers WRs?

Claypool
Johnson
Smith-Schuster
Washington

I went with Claypool because even though he's just flashed, it looks like Ben looks his way every single time. 

 
rockaction said:
Claypool
Johnson
Smith-Schuster
Washington
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Dr. Octopus said:
Claypool (based on upside), Dionte Johnson, JJSS and James Washington.
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Same. In addition to the upside, Claypool is the safest asset of the 3. He doesn't need to do much to hold his value through the season. The other two will likely fight for targets the rest of the way and their value will depend on the outcome. Plus, an injury to DJ adds to the injury prone narrative, and who knows where Juju ends up this off-season. Claypool is the only one without stuck-holding-the-bag risk. I go with DJ over Juju because he's locked in a plus situation and has produced on the outside.

 
Concept Coop said:
Same. In addition to the upside, Claypool is the safest asset of the 3. He doesn't need to do much to hold his value through the season. The other two will likely fight for targets the rest of the way and their value will depend on the outcome. Plus, an injury to DJ adds to the injury prone narrative, and who knows where Juju ends up this off-season. Claypool is the only one without stuck-holding-the-bag risk. I go with DJ over Juju because he's locked in a plus situation and has produced on the outside.
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This was my unspoken reasoning as well, especially Diontae and JJSS. I had reasoned that because Diontae had succeeded with lousy quarterbacks on the outside, unlike JuJu, and JuJu had an unsettled contract situation, that it gave Johnson the edge.

 
Biabreakable said:
I think you take that deal. You are getting the two best players.

This is an example of dynasty owners devaluing players too much because of their age. Sure Shenault might be a better producer than Crowder for the rest of his career but if you are trying to win now I Crowder is doing what Shenault owners hope he will do with some consistency in the future.

Henry for a 3rd round pick is also a steal.

As far as that goes you might be able to trade Crowder for more than Shenault later on.

I wouldn't count any chickens with Crowder getting a new QB and coach next season but Crowder just turned 27 in June. He will be 28 years old next season. He could pretty easily continue producing at a similar level for another two to three years as he has done with a multiple teams and QBs so far in his career.
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I would be getting Shenault and a 3rd. I passed. I am in win now

 
Anyone have an idea of the value of Gabriel Davis? I've watched him enough to want to go all in on him in dynasty and am struggling to find something that fits. Offered Tonyan straight up and was turned down. I have no problem offering a 2nd, just want to get a consensus as to what he may be worth. 

 
foxco said:
Anyone have an idea of the value of Gabriel Davis? I've watched him enough to want to go all in on him in dynasty and am struggling to find something that fits. Offered Tonyan straight up and was turned down. I have no problem offering a 2nd, just want to get a consensus as to what he may be worth. 
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If the rookie draft was done again he's probably a 2nd rounder. Don't think he jumps over any of the pre draft top 10 rookie WR's yet. Probably jumped over someone like Van Jefferson but I think people are still going to go with someone like Ruggs over Davis. So a 2nd is kind of his value and as a Davis owner I wouldn't give him up for a 2nd because it's hard to turn that pick into something comparable again. So probably going to have to sweeten the deal a bit.

If I needed a TE, Tonyan for Davis straight up would have me very tempted.

 
Concept Coop said:
Same. In addition to the upside, Claypool is the safest asset of the 3. He doesn't need to do much to hold his value through the season. The other two will likely fight for targets the rest of the way and their value will depend on the outcome. Plus, an injury to DJ adds to the injury prone narrative, and who knows where Juju ends up this off-season. Claypool is the only one without stuck-holding-the-bag risk. I go with DJ over Juju because he's locked in a plus situation and has produced on the outside.
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I think you could flip a coin between Claypool and DJ, especially in full PPR. I know, they all count, but without the Philly game would people be nearly as high on Claypool right now?

DJ is so explosive, which ironically may be contributing to his injuries. I think all of their values will depend on the outcome the rest of the way- if DJ remains healthy (big if obviously), I think he'll be at the top in full PPR at the end of the year. Of course, Claypool could separate himself with a couple more huge games as well.

 
foxco said:
Anyone have an idea of the value of Gabriel Davis? I've watched him enough to want to go all in on him in dynasty and am struggling to find something that fits. Offered Tonyan straight up and was turned down. I have no problem offering a 2nd, just want to get a consensus as to what he may be worth. 
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I own Gabriel Davis and Tonyan in a lot of leagues. Gabriel because he was a personal favorite of mine during draft season and he's my highest owned rookie. If it's TE premium then I'd consider them straight up for each other, with the advantage to Tonyan if I need a TE to be competitive. If I'm rebuilding I can see a case for either one.

I feel like both have established their floors this year though. Gabriel being a fill in WR3 some days, only getting better when John Brown could get phased out next year. Tonyan is 26 and having his breakout, it usually takes a couple years for TE's. He's easily a top10 dynasty TE right now. I wouldn't even mind if someone was super high on him and ranked him as a top6 TE. 

 
Helaire-ious said:
Does Mooney have any dynasty PPR value? If so, what are people seeing or thinking right now?
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I have him. It would take at least a 2nd for me to consider moving him, and even then I’d have to look where that 2nd is projected. A late 2nd likely wouldn’t do it. He just needs to get a decent quarterback. 

 
Could someone post their own guess or have a link to a dynasty startup draft if it happened today?

I look at rankings on other sites and fbg and they just seem so far off on certain guys (like metcalf/aj brown/cd, with some rbs being ranked higher than I’d expect). Maybe I’m just crazy.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Miles Sanders in non-ppr...worth multiple firsts?

Would you have to get a high first back to even consider trading him away?
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I would think he’s just as valuable in non-PPR formats. He might fall behind a RB or two, but he should also jump some of the of the WRs ahead of him. I’d trade him for the 1.01 without much thought, but I’m not sure after that. I’d need a top 3 pick to even consider moving him for a draft pick. 

Full disclosure - I haven’t played non-PPR in years. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
I would think he’s just as valuable in non-PPR formats. He might fall behind a RB or two, but he should also jump some of the of the WRs ahead of him. I’d trade him for the 1.01 without much thought, but I’m not sure after that. I’d need a top 3 pick to even consider moving him for a draft pick. 

Full disclosure - I haven’t played non-PPR in years. 
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This is closer to what I was thinking. I traded him in one Zealots league for what is looking likely to be 1.1 but I'm negotiating with the same guy in another where it's looking like a later first.

Was originally thinking that pick and Mims might do it for me, but then it just felt light. Especially since the RB position is an outright mess in FFB right now.

 
Helaire-ious said:
In non-ppr, he's not worth a high 1st IMO. Maybe late 1st
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Doesn't make much sense, unless you think he's completely flaming out.   As a top 10 dynasty RB, he's easily worth an early 1st.   His value might slip to late 1st is he tears his ACL this weekend, but outside of that nobody is parting with a top 10 RB in non ppr for anything less than that.

 
Helaire-ious said:
In non-ppr, he's not worth a high 1st IMO. Maybe late 1st
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I disagree.  I would give a late first for Sanders in a milli-second.  I would expect to pay a high first or multiple late firsts if I were to try to acquire him.

 
You Know Who I Am said:
I would be getting Shenault and a 3rd. I passed. I am in win now
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Ah. Sorry if I misunderstood the sides of the deal.

I hope my response was somehow useful anyways.

In the most recent game by the Jets they were playing 3 WR sets most of the game with Perriman and Mims outside. The Patriots were often double covering Crowder so this tells you what they think of him. Crowder may still be useful for you this season.

I may be too critical of Shenault because as a Vikings fan I have seen a lot of WR like him in Percy Harvin and Cordarralle Patterson. I think he is more like Patterson than Harvin.

 
SayWhat? said:
Doesn't make much sense, unless you think he's completely flaming out.   As a top 10 dynasty RB, he's easily worth an early 1st.   His value might slip to late 1st is he tears his ACL this weekend, but outside of that nobody is parting with a top 10 RB in non ppr for anything less than that.
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PPR he has much more value. He seems to always be hurt & Eagles are a joke. Big factors for me.

 
Helaire-ious said:
PPR he has much more value. He seems to always be hurt & Eagles are a joke. Big factors for me.
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I disagree that he has much more value in PPR.  Obviously that's ideal but he has 520yds and 3 TDs in 5 games this year.  Those are still really good numbers in non-ppr.

And non-ppr hurts the value of late 1st round picks in my experience.  Teams are FAR less interested in them in non-ppr where everyone just wants RBs than in PPR where people are still happy to gobble up 2nd tier WR prospects.

 
Concept Coop said:
Good post. There is a vacuum - and I think this rookie RB class is the primary culprit. You’d expect that one of these guys would have established themselves as a sure thing. But all 5 of them - CEH, JT, Swift, Dobbins, Akers - have failed to live up to their redraft ADP so far. All 5 of them are in messy RBBCs.

I was as thrown off by this as the market - I’d be embarrassed to share some of the offers I was making for CEH and JT a few weeks ago - but the market is doubling down. Granted, as you point out, maybe DLF followers aren’t a perfect sample. But even if you’re worried about the second contract, how do you take these guys over someone like Miles Sanders?
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And here’s to you, Mr. Robinson... 

 
Babooya said:
Just acknowledging a rookie top 5 ppr back
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Yes this certainly refutes the idea that no rookie RB have been in the top 12 this season.

CEH has been a success as well. Just impossible to live up to the hype. He will likely be more involved as a receiver in years ahead. 

 
Who were your favorite players to own in your time playing?

AP, Newton and Gronk are all up there, but Shady was my favorite. Edit: Forgot Kamara. 

AP was my first ever dynasty pick, but was the obvious startup 1.01 and required no foresight on my part. He had multiple 80 yard TDs that year, IIRC. What a stud.

I traded Miles Austin for Cam Newton a game into his rookie season in a non-PPR league. Rookie Cam Newton was a cheat code. 

Gronk Smash.

The market wasn’t drafting 28 YO RBs in the first round of startup drafts anymore, but still wasn’t discounting 25-26 YO RBs enough (or placing enough premium on 21-23 YOs). Shady was 22, coming off of a huge sophomore season, and was still being drafted behind guys like AP and CJ2K. I traded Gore and Stevie Johnson for him in one league and drafted him 1.01 and 1.03 in two startups that year. I took some flack for it in my leagues and on this site - and it was fun being a year early and watching everyone come around. 

You?

 
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