Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
countered with this & he accepted. I am pleased. Young talent for a TE I paid $10/500 FAAB.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Boone22
Footballguy
I personally would have stuck with the Parker offer. I understand Samuel is young and talented but once CMC comes back, Samuel goes back to being the #4 option on that team (at best) for this year, while Parker is the undisputed #1 WR in Miami. Now if you are playing the long game and like Samuel for when he leaves Carolina, then that’s a bit of a different story.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Playing the long game. Whatever WR I acquired was not a starter for me this year (barring injury) and if I do have to start one, I’m not confident enough to trust Tua right now.
I’d rather have a 24 year old Samuel than a 27 y/o Parker who hasn’t been able to stay healthy with soft tissue injuries. And I paid Tonyan instead of EE or Gronk.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Worth a shot.
Is Michael Thomas going to play for the Saints again any time soon?
I have been hearing a lot of different peoples opinions of Drew Brees not throwing the ball well. I wonder if this is his last season?
Without Brees these WR become a lot less interesting.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think this question is too vague and would require research to try to guess at. Even then the WR I might suggest could be on a team who is a contender or just be a player you don't like.
Who are the WR you are considering worth Dak that are on non contending rosters in your league?
kutta
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Huh I hadn't thought about that.
Yeah bad for real football but great for fantasy.
Sean Payton is a good offensive coach for fantasy in general.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I probably wouldn't trade Thielen for Dak but if the guy who has Thielen isnt contending maybe they would do that. Woods is getting older too.
Not sure I give him up for Landry. I would keep Dak over Mike Williams.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hmm
Brees and Teddy are both leading the league in completion percentage this year. Brees slightly better than Teddy because of TD and fewer INT but they are also similar in adjusted yards per attempt. Brees is 11th with 8 aypa and Teddy is 14th with 7.9 aypa
Part of Brees struggles may be just because Thomas has missed so many games.
The numbers look better than the comments I have heard about Brees passes. Brees is currently 7th best by QBR. Teddy is 14th
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I have McLaurin a tier ahead of Golladay. I think he’s the most likely of the two to end up being significantly more productive than he is today. If you told me one of them was putting up 110+/1400+ in a year or two, I’d guess Terry. I like both guys, but think Terry is the better player.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
By value I think they're close but I have Terry way ahead personally.
But that is coming from the perspective of someone who thinks Golladay is one of the most overrated pieces in fantasy. He's 27 with a career best finish of WR14 in PPG. He's a year younger than Lockett/Woods, performs similarly if not worse than them, and costs 3x as much as them.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’m reeeally high on Terry, FWIW. I think he’s a top 5-8ish NFL WR. He does everything well. It would be a dream to watch him in a functional offense. What he would do in PIT, LAC, GB, ATL, etc....
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
What are the values of Mike Williams and Darrell Henderson? Discussion between me and another owner as he sees their values a good distance apart.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree Terry McClaurin > Kenny Golladay. I also think McClaurin has top 12 WR upside if they ever get him a good QB.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would rather have Henderson but I don't think very highly of Mike Williams.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I'm trying to get Henderson but he's trying for Henderson for Williams and a second and everyone I talk to or places I look they are valued pretty closely.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well according to this ADP Henderson is 75 overall while Mike Williams is 120. I don't think his request is unreasonable.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Thanks! This is what I'm trying to find out, how far apart they are so I can see if this is something to pursue.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree. He’s great at every aspect and even plays a little stronger than he looks. That route running and speed is a deadly combo. It’s just a shame that he’s been stuck with poor QBs.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'm with everyone else. McLaurin is better in almost every way other than situation to me. The unfortunate part of it might be that we keep talking about him like Allen Robinson. When/If he ever gets a QB and a good offense, he'd be top12 rather easily. I don't think people will view him highly though and maybe you can sell that he's only WR20 (or whatever he is) in ADP to the guy that has him, but you get a top12 producer. Same thing happened with Woods/Arob/Keenan, always outproducing their ADP's and yearly underrated.roarlions said:
JFS171
Footballguy
So what’s the top of the dynasty TE landscape look like? Assume Kittle is still the 1, though his injuries give slight pause as it’s become quite a pattern. Kelce still 2 but vulnerable in his rank due to age eventually catching up with him. Then what?
Andrews - two big games (TD-driven) and a lot of disappointment
Ertz - mess of a year and no idea where he’s playing in 2021
Hockenson/Fant/Goedert/Jonnu - what’s their role going forward?
Henry - is this quiet stretch just bad luck or is Herbert just not looking to TEs?
The position has long been a mess, but how do you parse these guys?
Andrews - two big games (TD-driven) and a lot of disappointment
Ertz - mess of a year and no idea where he’s playing in 2021
Hockenson/Fant/Goedert/Jonnu - what’s their role going forward?
Henry - is this quiet stretch just bad luck or is Herbert just not looking to TEs?
The position has long been a mess, but how do you parse these guys?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm not convinced Kelce shouldn't be #1 over Kittle.
With TEs it seems like they either fall off around 30 like guys like Gronk/Graham/Ertz, or they keep on trucking well into their mid-30's like Gates/Gonzo/Witten.
Kelce is already through that 30 threshold and frankly the dude still looks like a 22 year old running around out there. He's remained healthy for years and doesn't take big hits.
With Kittle I get much more of that Gronk/Graham/Ertz vibe. He's constantly got leg injuries, we're constantly worried if he's going to play and if he's really healthy even when he does. I don't really have any thing scientific behind it but he just strikes me as one of those guys that we could see in 2 years out there lumbering around with big giant knee braces and bulky pads and wondering to ourselves "didn't this guy used to be explosive?" even though he's still "only" 29-30.
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I agree with Kelce over Kittle. I wouldn't have said that before the season because of age but agree he looks great. I'll take 2-3 years of top production with the best QB in the league as a "worst case," and I think he'll produce a bit beyond that.
Kittle. is next for me. The injuries are a concern for sure but he's still an elite talent and in a good system for TEs.
Andrews, Goedert, Hockenson, Fant are a little clustered together for me in a 3rd tier. I like that Andrews is tied to Jackson in a TE friendly offense, but consistency and durability are concerns. Out of this group I like Goedert as a guy who could move up and be mentioned in a cluster with Kelce and Kittle. There are a some "ifs" -- is Ertz still there or gone (though Ertz has looked ineffective so this may be less of a concern), how stable is the offensive situation. But he seems to have potential for the kind of WR-like production that Kelce and Kittle provide.
Kittle. is next for me. The injuries are a concern for sure but he's still an elite talent and in a good system for TEs.
Andrews, Goedert, Hockenson, Fant are a little clustered together for me in a 3rd tier. I like that Andrews is tied to Jackson in a TE friendly offense, but consistency and durability are concerns. Out of this group I like Goedert as a guy who could move up and be mentioned in a cluster with Kelce and Kittle. There are a some "ifs" -- is Ertz still there or gone (though Ertz has looked ineffective so this may be less of a concern), how stable is the offensive situation. But he seems to have potential for the kind of WR-like production that Kelce and Kittle provide.
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Birdie048
Footballguy
Duvernay has claimed more ground on Boykin. I see him as more of an "across the middle receiver" aka Edelman role. If Lamar is to improve as a passing QB, this is where he does it.
Perine is on the Jets. Who will be RB1 next year? Chubba or Etienne? Enuf said on his value on the Jets in 2021.
rockaction
Footballguy
Jets aren't drafting a running back early. Too many other needs to address.
I have no idea what to say about Perine vs. Duvernay. Give me the better athlete with a little more draft capital, I guess. So I'd keep Duvernay, though I don't know how he is being or will ever be used in that offense while Perine is pretty much the last man standing at RB in NY for now and may be their future if he impresses (which is unlikely behind this line and this year).
Tough call. Good luck.
JFS171
Footballguy
How highly are we valuing Herbert? I’m very tempted to flip Lamar for him, which I can do straight up. Had I acted on my convictions about Herbert a few weeks ago, I could’ve probably gotten Herbert plus.
I have been a huge supporter of Jackson, and the running is still an incredible cheat code, but Herbert is doing things as a rookie that haven’t been done since Marino. If he’s the next Wilson - the next pocket passer than can also add some value with his legs but dissects your D from the pocket - I want in early.
Am I overreacting to a fast career start from Herbert?
I have been a huge supporter of Jackson, and the running is still an incredible cheat code, but Herbert is doing things as a rookie that haven’t been done since Marino. If he’s the next Wilson - the next pocket passer than can also add some value with his legs but dissects your D from the pocket - I want in early.
Am I overreacting to a fast career start from Herbert?
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I agree. He also has a big incentive since the win now window with Mahomes/Hill is off the charts. Is 2 or 3 more Super Bowls unrealistic? In his mind?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
In a 1 QB league I would value Lamar over Herbert. Herbert has been excellent since he started so I may be slow to come around on it, but I think Lamar turns this stretch around.
JFS171
Footballguy
This stretch to start a career by Herbert is just otherworldly.
https://twitter.com/nfloncbs/status/1323306504448057344?s=21
https://twitter.com/espnstatsinfo/status/1322931407337844737?s=21
https://twitter.com/pff/status/1322358134837563394?s=21
https://twitter.com/sharpfootball/status/1324883829014802436?s=21
https://twitter.com/adamharstad/status/1324024565685694466?s=21
It’s a small sample, but holy hell its incredibly impressive, and if you don’t act on conviction early, the opportunity evaporates.
In three weeks can you still flip Jackson for Herbert?
JFS171
Footballguy
Something else ... Jackson admittedly has me a little spooked. It’s his third year in the league, and his passing was supposed to steadily improve. Instead, he seems to have taken a step back throwing the ball.
2019 - 66.1 completion %, 7.8 Y/A, 8.9 AY/A, 82.3 QBR, 113.3 QB Rating
2020 - 60.5 completion %, 7.1 Y/A, 7.4 AY/A, 61.6 QBR, 94.3 QB Rating
This is also with a fully healthy Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews returning, same OC, same scheme, and they added Dobbins which should further assist in the passing game. I would say it’s early, but it’s been 7 games, and outside of Week 1’s 275 and 3 TDs, Jackson has been held under 210 yards every other week. He’s producing with his legs still, but how sustainable is it when the passing has fallen so far off of where he was a year ago?
2019 - 66.1 completion %, 7.8 Y/A, 8.9 AY/A, 82.3 QBR, 113.3 QB Rating
2020 - 60.5 completion %, 7.1 Y/A, 7.4 AY/A, 61.6 QBR, 94.3 QB Rating
This is also with a fully healthy Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews returning, same OC, same scheme, and they added Dobbins which should further assist in the passing game. I would say it’s early, but it’s been 7 games, and outside of Week 1’s 275 and 3 TDs, Jackson has been held under 210 yards every other week. He’s producing with his legs still, but how sustainable is it when the passing has fallen so far off of where he was a year ago?
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
Waller needs to be on this list. I'd have the order Kelce, Kittle, Hockenson, Fant, Waller, Andrews, Henry.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I'll be looking to get one of the two top rookie TE's coming out this year. Feel like it's worth the risk as getting a top 5 TE long term seems like such a roster advantage.
wlwiles
Footballguy
I traded a mid-2nd for Goedert a couple weeks ago with the hope that Ertz walks and he basically becomes what Ertz was 2-3 yrs ago, the overall TE3. I like the potential upside there more than anyone else in that tier - feel like those guys are what they are at this point.
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I'd feel embarrassed to even offer a 2nd for Goedert. That's theft!!
I'd give a late 1st in a blink of an eye
Tau837
Footballguy
Henry is on pace for a career high in snaps, routes run, and targets, by a large margin, assuming he plays 16 games... which he has never done.
The problem for him is that the quality of the targets has dropped. His catch percentage, YPR, and YPT are both career lows, and he has just 1 TD in 7 games after posting 5 in 12 games last season and 17 in 41 career games entering the 2020 season.
Per Player Profiler:
- In 2019, Henry was #1 in Target Quality Rate; in 2020, he is #29
- In 2019, Henry was #7 in Catchable Target Rate; in 2020, he is #28
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree. I think RB scarcity will give some return for Perine whereas I don't think anyone believes in Duvernay since he is a WR and plays for the Ravens.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
DLF November ADP has CEH (4) and Jonathan Taylor (5) as top 5 RBs and first round startup picks. Both guys are valuable, and the position group as a whole is lacking; but how could you leave a startup with either of them as your best asset and feel good about it today? Especially Taylor.
Am I alone in thinking that’s rich for these two?
Am I alone in thinking that’s rich for these two?
kutta
Footballguy
I agree with you. It’s rookie-fever at its finest.
Off the top of my head, I would rank these guys ahead of both of them.
CMC
Saquon
Cook
Henry
Kamara
Zeke
Jacobs
Chubb
Jones
There may be more, but I’ll take a proven vet with at least a few good years left over an unproven rookie.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I agree with not wanting to start out with Taylor at this point in a startup draft. I would think that would get adjusted some in the offseason unless Taylor miraculously turns it around. I would be fine starting out with CEH, I think he has been pretty good so far.
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