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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Identical, IMO. I could favor one or the other depending on the starting requirements of your league, but in a vacuum it's a pick 'em.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
FYI - Well, this didn't get it done. He said since their points were roughly equal last year, that he thinks I might have to add something to MY side to get it done. After reminding him that Chubb missed four games with a tweaked knee, I said I could see a straight up deal but definitely not more added on my side.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Yeah I'd much rather have Lamb > Chubb.
Lamb is a true stud of the future, long term #1. I do generally prefer RB's to WR's who score similarly, but Chubb is on my DND list because his value has kind of peaked. Especially if this is PPR.
Thoughts on Mike Davis as a Falcon? Could still see them drafting a quality RB in round 2 or 3, but they will probably want to prioritize their porous defense, so there's a solid chance Davis could be the starter going into next season. Davis as the #1 guy there could be a sneaky high end RB2, with plenty of goal line opportunity and dump offs.
Would you offer a late second or early third for him? And conversely, if you're a Davis owner, what would you look to get for him right now?
Would you offer a late second or early third for him? And conversely, if you're a Davis owner, what would you look to get for him right now?
jm192
Footballguy
I think it's a lost cause if they're citing total points and forgetting to account for the missed games.
I think they're close in dynasty. I'd lean towards Chubb. But if you've got to explain why total points isn't an accurate way to look at things, you're in an uphill battle.
jm192
Footballguy
He was good largely on volume last year, and Drake will cut into that. Didn't they move/lose some offensive linemen?
I assume most owners will still treat him like an RB1 coming off 1,000 yards and 12 TD's in his 2nd season--but he won't give you RB1 production.
Maybe after a few let down games, owners ease their grip. But again--you've got to buy low on an RB2--not buy low on an RB1.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Team A gives: Mahomes, Hopkins, 2022 1.xx
Team B gives: Josh Allen, Chubb, Lamb
choose your fighter
ETA: 12-team superflex, 1 PPR, 6 pt PaTd, .1/3 PaYd
No cap dynasty.
Team B gives: Josh Allen, Chubb, Lamb
choose your fighter
ETA: 12-team superflex, 1 PPR, 6 pt PaTd, .1/3 PaYd
No cap dynasty.
Last edited by a moderator:
DirtyCashDylan
Footballguy
Mahomes edge over Allen
Hopkins about equal to Lamb in dynasty depending on your timeline
Chubb >> an unknown 1st
Team B all the way
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Sounds like you should be trying to get his RB’s by offering him a WR that scores similarly.
i think if 22 pick was 1.03 or higher you might have an even side. but even then i probably still take the allen side
My opinion on this comes down to the size of the league. 12 and under, give me the best player (Mahomes). Larger than that, give me the basket of players but I would be looking to flip Chubb before he turns into a pumpkin in other peoples' eyes.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Probably shoulda specified:
12-team superflex dynasty, PPR, 6 pt PaTd, passing yardage is .1/3 PaYd
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am team Mahomes, and in win-now mode. I’m not in a bug hurry to deal my two best players, but I’m also not in a hurry to have my team age (Hopkins at 28) out & I’d love to have Chubb since I’m a little thin at RB.
This was an opening salvo. Team Allen has Kupp, but at 27 that doesn’t really get me younger. But if it gets me Chubb it’s probably worth doing & trade calc has that as even.
Appreciate the response.
Superflex can change things dramatically, depending on how your league treats QBs and how balanced your scoring system is.
I personally feel better about the prospects of Mahomes as a QB over the next 5-10 years than I do about Allen, but that's primarily because we've only seen one season of Allen performing at a high level as a passer. He's always been valuable due to his legs, but he may be coming into his own as a well-rounded QB.
6 PATD is a huge boon to Mahomes. 30 yards per point passing is a wash, but I would give Allen a slight edge here based on the points he gets as a runner.
12 teams makes it a very illiquid market, but I think you could get the deal done without QBs involved at all if you gave up an additional asset. It will likely be a moderately painful asset.
As an aside, this offseason may be your last chance to get a "reasonably" priced Lamb. His owners may believe ADP and Dynasty rankings that show him in the bottom half of the WR1 group.
If Dak played all of 2020 without being injured, Lamb would be ranked right next to Justin Jefferson today, and possibly higher.
If Dak played all of 2020 without being injured, Lamb would be ranked right next to Justin Jefferson today, and possibly higher.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
What's the true value of Mahomes in start 1 QB 5 pts per passing TD dynasty PPR these days?
northern exposure
Footballguy
Yeah dealing for Hopkins has to be a win now move. In a 12 team ppr league I was just offered Hopkins and 2021 2.07 for D Swift and 2021 1.03. I just took over this orphan team and it doesn't seem like the time to deal for Hopkins. I may counter with my 2.03 instead of 1.03 though and see what happens.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - and unfortunately several in my league use the Dynasty Dominator trade calculator app, which seems to heavily favor RB & severely underrate WRs, which is kind of stupid. so I keep getting what I think are lopsided lowball offers of scrubby RB for my “big 3” of Hopkins/Evans/ARob, and when I counter asking for a real RB they complain that I “overvalue” my WRs.
yeah, ok pal - you came to me asking for my WRs but i overvalue them? More like I know their value.
I’m starting to hate groupthink-inducing dynasty calculators.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Also, I think this is a fair counter idea. I think Hopkins has more than a couple elite seasons left in him, but Swift & a 1st is too much.
northern exposure
Footballguy
He ended up selling Hopkins and the 2.07 pick for Chase Edmonds, Deebo Samuel and a 2022 2nd.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s...not a great return. It’ll look a lot better if Chase is the starter / 15-18 touch per week guy. I like Debo a lot & I get that the other pieces are to pad the value, but I’d want more for Hopkins.northern exposure said:
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hopkins will be 29 in June. At what point will there be a drastic fall? I’d say fantasy owners should be selling by this time next year, or before.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'm planning on selling to a win-now team next year, or this if I have some bad injury luck and/or start off in a hole record-wise.
He certainly hasn't slowed down at all, and he's in a good situation. It's not like he's dramatically out of shape & he has very little injury history in recent memory.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Right now? The Debo offer would do it if it was a RB we knew could be counted on as a RB2? Maybe like 2.x + Debo+Carson or something. Even a RoJo type where you know the production is guaranteed.
The only bone I have to pick with that deal Is that we just don’t know what Edmonds will be, so it’s not really worth going from Hopkins to Debo for a 2nd rounder and a maybe.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
What's an older, but still productive, WR like Adam Thielen worth as a one year rental - assuming you're trying to win it all this year or bust?
Future first? Current second?
Future first? Current second?
I would break my IPhone screen clicking accept if I checked my inbox and someone had offered me a 1st of any year for Thielen.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Possibly, but I still wouldn’t do an early one. Too many good prospects in this draft that could still be on the board. Personally, I’m probably not even considering offering anything unless it’s like 2.05 or later.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I recently moved him on a team that won the league in 2020 - for a future second and James Washington. It was before free agency when I thought JJSS would surely be moving on. I didn't get much interest when I shopped him around. He's 31 and Cousins is coming off what I think will be his career year. Not sure Thielen sees double digit TDs again.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
If you're trying to move him I think it is best to package him. I moved him and Woods together for a younger WR and Hurts in SF. Who is going for something like a current to late mid 1st. Otherwise Thielen is almost unsellable. I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd and I'd hesitate even then. It's not that I don't like him for 2021 it's that I just don't like to buy old WRs and most don't either.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I normally wouldn't buy either. But this is a league I'm pretty sure I'm quitting after this year. So, one last run...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
PRICE CHECK / Aisle 4 for A.J. Brown Tenn WR
Clear young talented WR; clear demonstration improvement each season in a Run First/Second/Third Offense
Turns 24 this summer; was 2nd round pick in 2019 Draft (#19)
2019 52 rec on 84 targets >1000 yards 8 TD
2020 70 rec on 106 targets > 1000 yards 11 TD
Impact from both WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith departing Tenn for greener pastures (NYJ) or more Red/White/Blue
--> More Targets?
--> More Double Teams?
--> Spend a high Draft pick in WR replacement?
--> Add RB and go full Run Oriented like Balt?
Some discussions I have been having: they view him as the "next" Devante Adams & "not tradeable" (over pay heavily) while others say he is simply Top 12-15 Overall, no different than a RB1 or Top TE and a simple High 1st + good player equivalent (like 1.04 + K Hunt).
All the changes Tenn have experienced and the "wear & tear" factor on Henry (>1150 carries & 76 rec) only make me think AJ Brown is still climbing. A good WR2 in Tenn will help avoid double team and his value will remain Top 5 Overall, not just Top 3 WR. He is entering the untradeable phase of his career. Thoughts/Feedback?
Clear young talented WR; clear demonstration improvement each season in a Run First/Second/Third Offense
Turns 24 this summer; was 2nd round pick in 2019 Draft (#19)
2019 52 rec on 84 targets >1000 yards 8 TD
2020 70 rec on 106 targets > 1000 yards 11 TD
Impact from both WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith departing Tenn for greener pastures (NYJ) or more Red/White/Blue
--> More Targets?
--> More Double Teams?
--> Spend a high Draft pick in WR replacement?
--> Add RB and go full Run Oriented like Balt?
Some discussions I have been having: they view him as the "next" Devante Adams & "not tradeable" (over pay heavily) while others say he is simply Top 12-15 Overall, no different than a RB1 or Top TE and a simple High 1st + good player equivalent (like 1.04 + K Hunt).
All the changes Tenn have experienced and the "wear & tear" factor on Henry (>1150 carries & 76 rec) only make me think AJ Brown is still climbing. A good WR2 in Tenn will help avoid double team and his value will remain Top 5 Overall, not just Top 3 WR. He is entering the untradeable phase of his career. Thoughts/Feedback?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Edmonds owner is interested for Curtis Samuel.
I love Samuel’s new situation, but I’m pretty thin at RB. Thin enough that I’m considering offering Samuel for Edmonds and either 2.06 or 2.08 (he has both)
am I asking too much for Samuel or paying too much for Edmonds?
I’ve seen word that Edmonds will be starting, but I’m not yet convinced that will actually happen.
my WRs are M.Evans, Hopkins, ARob, Fuller & Samuel with rags behind them, so it’s not like I’m that deep at WR either.
I guess this depends on how likely people think Edmonds will be to have RB2 value in 2021 & beyond, because I feel like a Samuel will have WR3 value at least. (Meaning a FF roster’s 3rd WR, for those who are very literal)
I love Samuel’s new situation, but I’m pretty thin at RB. Thin enough that I’m considering offering Samuel for Edmonds and either 2.06 or 2.08 (he has both)
am I asking too much for Samuel or paying too much for Edmonds?
I’ve seen word that Edmonds will be starting, but I’m not yet convinced that will actually happen.
my WRs are M.Evans, Hopkins, ARob, Fuller & Samuel with rags behind them, so it’s not like I’m that deep at WR either.
I guess this depends on how likely people think Edmonds will be to have RB2 value in 2021 & beyond, because I feel like a Samuel will have WR3 value at least. (Meaning a FF roster’s 3rd WR, for those who are very literal)
Birdie048
Footballguy
The uncertainty of Edmonds playing time is a big gamble. I don't know if I would move Samuel for him even with the 2nd rounder.
I really expect ARZ to draft a RB and at least RBBC.
rockaction
Footballguy
HSG knows this, but I do, too. I think it's going to wind up how the draft falls to AZ, but I expect them to add a back unless they're going analytics on us and deciding backs just aren't important or they feel comfortable with Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward in case of injury to Edmonds.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Completely agree ... how the players fall in the draft will dictate so much....
And to add to the original question, IMO, Yes, this is over pay for Edmonds and the risk is all on HSG side of the deal.
I think after the draft, Samuel will have more value to this owner. I suggest waiting ...
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, the guy has really put him in a position of speculating about what AZ is going to do in the draft. I don't like that bet.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not only that, but assuming how AZ will use Edmonds regardless. The talk lit of AZ now is “We think Edmonds can be a feature back.”
Thats now the same thing as saying “Edmonds will be our feature back”.
Of course after the draft, if AZ doesn’t come out with a RB, his value rises. Sigh.
northern exposure
Footballguy
Price check on Brandin Cooks?
I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator (
) tells him the deal is slightly in my favor.
I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.
I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator (
) tells him the deal is slightly in my favor. I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.
can't understand why? 1.3 is gold and this is not near value for it. Chase's year 1 will dwarf Cook's 2021 season. Right. Out. The. Gate.Price check on Brandin Cooks?
I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator (
I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.
rockaction
Footballguy
Whoa. Don't do that offer. Cooks is a concussion away from never playing again. Not to mention that it's Houston. That might be what his calculator says, but I want to know what calculator he's depending on. And if every calc says that, then the calcs are wrong.Price check on Brandin Cooks?
I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator (
I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.
rockaction
Footballguy
The calc I just looked at had that not even close. It's way off. Like, significantly off.
RC94
Footballguy
I'm not targeting Cooks in any league. I've had 3 concussions so I know first hand what it does to you both in the short term and long term. I've had migraines for 25 years now since my first concussion. There's no cure and it only gets worse the more damage you do. I avoid all players with concussion issues if I can. If you disagree and want to acquire him, I wouldn't pay more than a very late 2nd or early 3rd.
Tell him to get a new calculator. His is broke.and his trade calculator (
I had owner try to ship him to me a few days ago for a similar unrealistic price. When I rejected and told him not interested, he acted incredulous that I wouldn’t want him. And I quote: “Cooks is only 27 and has been in the top 12 5 out of the last 6 years.” I don’t get points from the past.Price check on Brandin Cooks?
I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator (
I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.
Each day it looks more and more likely Watson is either going to be suspended and/or traded, leaving Cooks stuck with Tyrod Taylor throwing to him for a year and no other WR help. The only WR in Tyrod’s tenure as a starter to hit 1k yards was Watkins 2nd year in Buffalo. I actually like Cooks as a player but his situation in 2021 is just beyond awful thru no fault of his own. I’ll be thinking of acquiring mid-season when the Texans are likely 0-8 and abysmal on both sides of the ball. They voided his 2023 year and could easily cut or trade him for 2022. If he stays a Texan, he will almost certainly have a new QB in 2022.
