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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Interesting the contrast between you and zyphros on this, in theory and in Johnson ranking. I tried to pick a guy who was maybe 2-5 right now with a guy maybe 7-15. 

I think in terms of fantasy community the RB I'm higher on then majority is Johnson and the one I'm lower on then majority is Chubb so not surprising. But I'm for sure not a man on an island with preferring Johnson and most people who are not in fantasy have them close.

Like a few examples. In DJ's latest top 50 he's got Chubb at #49 and Johnson at #50. In Bucky Brooks latest top 5 RB's he has none of these two in this top 5 but underneath the top 5 he lists just these two as "just missing the cut". In short I think most of the NFL community has them close, but fantasy community has consistently had Chubb rated higher.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks.  These guys hit at what, a 20% rate?  15%?  It's a miserable number.  I'd be pretty surprised if

7 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I think in terms of fantasy community the RB I'm higher on then majority is Johnson and the one I'm lower on then majority is Chubb so not surprising. But I'm for sure not a man on an island with preferring Johnson and most people who are not in fantasy have them close.

Like a few examples. In DJ's latest top 50 he's got Chubb at #49 and Johnson at #50. In Bucky Brooks latest top 5 RB's he has none of these two in this top 5 but underneath the top 5 he lists just these two as "just missing the cut". In short I think most of the NFL community has them close, but fantasy community has consistently had Chubb rated higher.

I’m willing to bet an early 1st on a good knee and continued return to form. I’m not willing to bet my job on it.....

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I think in terms of fantasy community the RB I'm higher on then majority is Johnson and the one I'm lower on then majority is Chubb so not surprising. But I'm for sure not a man on an island with preferring Johnson and most people who are not in fantasy have them close.

Like a few examples. In DJ's latest top 50 he's got Chubb at #49 and Johnson at #50. In Bucky Brooks latest top 5 RB's he has none of these two in this top 5 but underneath the top 5 he lists just these two as "just missing the cut". In short I think most of the NFL community has them close, but fantasy community has consistently had Chubb rated higher.

I have them neck and neck as well.  I put a lot of stock in draft spot, so it can go either way for me. 

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9 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I have them neck and neck as well.  I put a lot of stock in draft spot, so it can go either way for me. 

I do have them in the same tier and when I got players in same tier it's easy for me to say if one ended up in a much better situation that's the one I'd take so I'm with you on that.

When things get dicey is when a player from a lesser tier ends up in a superior situation.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I do have them in the same tier and when I got players in same tier it's easy for me to say if one ended up in a much better situation that's the one I'd take so I'm with you on that.

When things get dicey is when a player from a lesser tier ends up in a superior situation.

 

True.  And I meant draft spot in terms of draft pedigree.  I try not to put too much stock in my own opinion.  I think they are about equal, but if one goes rounds ahead of the other, he's my guy.  

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14 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

I just read it in the rojo thread. Not reading too much into it other than perhaps they like rojo or they don’t like ekeler as much as some people do. I don’t think Gordon will lose his job but if he gets dinged on volume a little it will tank his value. 

My question, or the point I’d like to discuss, is how do you guys weigh talent vs opportunity particularly at the top 15-20 picks. 2nd/3rd rds I’ll usually defer to opportunity. Let’s say Johnson ends up in TB or Indy and Chubb ends up in Cleveland with hyde. Does that vault Johnson into the top 5 and sink Chubb to back half of rd 1? 

For me the top 10-15 picks I’d defer to talent.  Everybody else to opportunity. Of course that’s squishy depending on the depth of the draft.  I might swap the top players on opportunity if I value them closely.  But I wouldn’t drop them much. If Chubb is my #3 RB and goes to CLE, he might move to #4 or #5.  No way he drops to late first. 

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57 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

True.  And I meant draft spot in terms of draft pedigree.  I try not to put too much stock in my own opinion.  I think they are about equal, but if one goes rounds ahead of the other, he's my guy.  

I factor in pedigree and opportunity.

Example.

2013 draft. Bell, Lacy, Gio, Ball and CMIKE all go round 2 but the one out of that group that went to a horrible situation was CMIKE.  As a result, and rightfully so, those other 4 RB's were the top 4 drafted RB's in every draft, dominating top half of first rounds, and Christine was a second round pick.

That's one example of many why I think it's not only madness to say opportunity and pedigree don't matter but I frankly don't believe people when they say that. Not going to call anyone out specifically but I don't know a soul that would have taken Christine Michael over Bell and pre-draft Michael was far more coveted then Bell-who was struggling to make top 10 RB lists for some people. I don't buy it when people say it does not matter,  I just don't.

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4 hours ago, Bazinga! said:

How would you rank these TEs (1ppr).  I see all of them as TE2s with TE1 upside (to varying degrees). 

 

Eifert

Burton

Brate

ASJ

Ebron

Ebron - I have been wrong about Ebron and disappointed with his career so far. Still think he has oodles of upside though if he ever puts it together. Colts is a nice situation if Luck is healthy.

Brate - I still expect Howard to keep becoming more involved, but the money and rapport Brate has with Winston and the coaches isn't going away.

Eifert - This guy has been hurt so much who knows? The TDs were great when he was healthy enough to play though.

ASJ - I still like that he is a good blocker and receiver. He got robbed of some TD last year. There isn't a lot of competition for opportunity with the Jaguars at TE that I am aware of. Lewis is a great blocker, but thats fine for fantasy (if the Jaguars still have him). They tried to upgrade at receiver TE with Julius Thomas a couple years ago, but Thomas isn't all that good. So they are taking another crack at it with ASJ.

Burton - The Bears have more TE than they need right now so I am not seeing why he is listed close to these other guys. The Bears just giving up on Shaheen or something? Dion Sims is a great blocker who they will keep playing. This guy looks like their 3rd TE to me.

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4 hours ago, Bazinga! said:

How would you rank these TEs (1ppr).  I see all of them as TE2s with TE1 upside (to varying degrees). 

 

Eifert

Burton

Brate

ASJ

Ebron

Burton-just have a Delanie Walker feeling about him...talented backup who gets a starting opportunity and runs with it...

Brate-obviously Howard is a major negative but I will follow the $ on this one...gotta believe he is a big piece of that offense with that contract...

Eifert-not much to say here...all about staying on the field which he can't seem to do...if you have a quality #1 he is a real nice lotto ticket #2

Ebron-just don't have faith in him and Doyle is there as well...there is talent here but I am not sure the head is on straight... 

ASJ-just don't see where the #'s are gonna come from on that offense...

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

True.  And I meant draft spot in terms of draft pedigree.  I try not to put too much stock in my own opinion.  I think they are about equal, but if one goes rounds ahead of the other, he's my guy.  

Draft position is the most predictive thing I know so it makes sense to me to put considerable weight on that data point over all of the others.

For me a big part of why I try to evaluate these players before the NFL draft is to get a sense of their level of talent, so if a player does slip, sure I will drop that player in rankings because of that, but I never forget about players who I think are talented, but fell in the draft. Those players are usually value plays if they ever get an opportunity.

FWIW  agree with menobrown in regards to Jones and Chubb. I don't think Chubb is that close to Jones based on what I have watched of both players. If Jones is drafted high enough in the NFL draft I think he is borderline tier one RB prospect. The speed of Jones is a big deal. Was watching him against Alabama and yes he was getting met in the USC backfield a lot and they were having their way with Jones, but then as the game goes on he finds a crack in their defense and he is so fast.. 20 yards later the safety is lucky to be able to catch him as Jones burst got him behind the whole defense just like that.

Chubb is fast too, but not that fast.

Speed isn't everything, but it is likely the most important thing. Jones has it. 

I don't like Jones as a receiver as much as I have read some talk about him. Now you get that speed in the open field its a great recipe for big plays, but Jones still has a lot of work to do getting open. He gets covered way too easy at times. I do think he will improve in that area, but I would disagree with him being a good receiving option right now. From what I have seen he is somewhat average, its just that speed kicking in that may make him or the numbers look better than he actually is relative to other RB skill as route runners and receivers.

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5 hours ago, Bazinga! said:

How would you rank these TEs (1ppr).  I see all of them as TE2s with TE1 upside (to varying degrees). 

 

Eifert

Burton

Brate

ASJ

Ebron

Brate

Burton

ASJ

Ebron

Eifert

 

I don't know I don't really want any of them and I own them all but Burton in one spot or another.  And I can't justify a low 2nd for a TE right now. As part of a package is the only way for me. 

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Burton - I don't believe in Trubisky but that just makes me like Burton more.

Eifert - Talented + injured is an easy bet. In this list, why not.

Ebron - Basically this list feels like "what would I be willing to risk to find out about Ebron?" He's a big bust risk but no harm giving up Brate or ASJ to find out.

Brate - We know can be a TE1 in a good situation, but may not be worth the roster spot to wait it out.

ASJ - Lewis was cut this week but I don't think it matters. 

Another "why not" TE to consider is Ed Dickson as he has no fantasy value and is in a great situation. I would rather pick up Dickson for cheap than pay for any of those but Burton.

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5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

The Bears just giving up on Shaheen or something?

No. But you have an entire team implementing a new system and Shaheen was raw to begin with as a Div.II Ashland college player. Now he has to learn his second offense in 2 years and continue to get up to NFL speed.

As you stated Sims is solid blocker (so is Shaheen for that matter, maybe their best for run blocking). But Burton gives them a pro who is more receiver then blocker and has already learned 3 NFL offense and understands the game. He gives 'em a threat until they know Shaheen can handle the duties full time. And he can also play HB/FB as dictated to some extent.

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I just posted my TE rankings.

Ebron - draft pedigree, has shown some promise, Indy thinks he's worth $7M+ even Detroit doesn't think he's worth $8M+, playing with Luck (hopefully)
Eifert - has produced when healthy, gamble is mainly about whether he can stay on the field and fantasy owners should be much more risk tolerant about that than NFL owners
Burton - he and Shaheen both seem like boom-or-bust options, so they don't hurt each other's upside that much
Brate - he and Howard both look like they're at least solid players so they hurt each other's upside more
ASJ - Ebron's disappointing 2017 would've been the best season of ASJ's career, attracted the smallest FA contract of the bunch

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15 hours ago, Bazinga! said:

How would you rank these TEs (1ppr).  I see all of them as TE2s with TE1 upside (to varying degrees). 

 

Eifert

Burton

Brate

ASJ

Ebron

I see most of these guys as TE2 types with low TE1 upside (in their current situations), which means they might squeak into the top 12, but you're ceding points to most of your opponents on a week-to-week basis. They are all young enough and with enough upside that I wouldn't mind stashing them as a backup for a couple years and hoping their situations improve.

Eifert (27.6) - pedigree and production with a large side of injury prone. He wasn't just a lucky red zone guy. His catches were very impressive and his routes were crisp. He's supposedly 100% healthy and still with the same QB. He's the only one that I'd actually consider a top 10 TE lock while healthy with a probable top 5 TE finish... again, if healthy. It's easy to forget how good he is when you haven't seen it for a year. His 7 game stretch in 2016 was a 64/880/11 pace. Nobody below him has that upside. And he's dirt cheap. I haven't done a startup this year, but I've gotten him cheaply in a couple best ball redrafts already.
ASJ (25.5) - once the 2.06 pick of the short lived Lovie Smith regime, he's the 2nd youngest player on this list and appears to have the TE position to himself, but so many mouths to feed in JAX. I know none of them stand out, but at least two of Moncrief, Lee, Cole, and Westbrook will probably turn out to be plus NFL players and there's just not that much production from the JAX passing game.
Burton (26.4) - we have to assume the new staff brought him in for a reason. He's only 1 year younger than Eifert and unproven, although he looked very good in a game or two spelling Ertz. Shaheen will be lurking, though. If he lives up to his potential, he could be better than Burton.
Brate (26.7) - nice, unexpected contract extension and proven chemistry with Winston, but OJ Howard is extremely talented, too. I expect this to be a TEBC from week 1 forward. Howard is good enough to make the Bucs regret this extension in a year or two... but that doesn't mean Brate isn't a pretty good receiver. If he didn't have Howard around, I'd rank him higher.
Ebron (25.0) - I remember doing quite a bit of reading about him a year ago when thinking about buying. He had an upward career trajectory back then but was still cheap due to the lack of TDs. I can't remember exactly, but what I think turned me off (to the point where all I remember is "do not draft, do not trade for") was that he's just soft. Not a very good blocker and can't catch contested passes. Hell, he likes to drop uncontested catches, too. When it comes to receiving, he's like the anti-Eifert. By that I mean, I don't think his lack of TDs is due to bad luck. It's due to bad hands and being soft in traffic. I know he's the youngest guy on this list and with the best draft pedigree (1.10:shock:), but he's been in a good offense with a good QB and been the de facto starter there every year and just couldn't get it done. Last year was a huge step backwards. Additionally, Doyle has great chemistry with Luck and Swoope has some intriguing upside. Being a likely bust stuck in a TEBC situation is not appealing to me. 

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On 3/21/2018 at 5:31 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

Julio's value seems to be right around the 1.02 right now, where I think he makes for a pretty good sell candidate. 

To add to the Julio discussion a few days ago, i woke up to an offer of the 1.02 plus JJ Nelson for my Julio this morning.

 

I'm not hurting at RB with Bell, Hunt & Cook but decided to take the trade anyway given Julio turns 30 next Feb.  Its likely a hit in points for 2018 and possibly 2019 too but I was points leader last year so thought i could afford it for a chance to improve and reload longer term. I've got AJG and Cooks at WR still, with a few flyers like Fuller and K.Benji, so will be shopping for a younger WR with upside now. Or i might try to upgrade QB or TE, or trade down, or swap a RB for a different WR. I think the trade gives me lots more options now.

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20 hours ago, menobrown said:

I already have Johnson ahead of Chubb and as my RB5 so yes on Johnson of course and no I'd not pick Chubb in back of round one under this scenario.

But talent, opportunity and pedigree are all part of the equation. Difficult to quantify but it's just all part of the puzzle and how it all fits. Could go and and on with examples,and maybe I will later, but you have to take into account the whole picture and for that whole picture is talent, opportunity and pedigree.

17 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Interesting the contrast between you and zyphros on this, in theory and in Johnson ranking. I tried to pick a guy who was maybe 2-5 right now with a guy maybe 7-15. 

Just to clarify we're talking Kerryon Johnson right?  It was never clear but he's the only Johnson in the draft I think right?  I have him as my 12th ranked RB based on talent alone.  Like others have mentioned the situation matters but only to a degree for me.  I'm trying to trust my evals a little more than past years by the talent I see and not discount/appreciate their values as much if they are drafted later/earlier than I think they should.  It's more about talent than opportunity for me that I believe talents finds a way to be relevant.  I'm also trying to bump RB's a little higher than I agree with because they tend to hit quicker than any other position.  Not exactly striking confidence in a guy like Johnson though.  Simply put, my top 5RB's will always be my top5 RB's no matter the landing spot.  Barkley, Guice, Chubb, RoJo, Michel.  

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10 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Thielens value relative to a rookie pick?  Mid-late 1st?  

Was traded in FFPC league of mine a few days ago and he got back 2.1, 2019#2 and Brieda.

Mid to late round one sounds about right to me but I don't own him or trying to buy him so maybe I'm off a little.

 

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Just now, Zyphros said:

 

Just to clarify we're talking Kerryon Johnson right?  It was never clear but he's the only Johnson in the draft I think right?  I have him as my 12th ranked RB based on talent alone.  Like others have mentioned the situation matters but only to a degree for me.  I'm trying to trust my evals a little more than past years by the talent I see and not discount/appreciate their values as much if they are drafted later/earlier than I think they should.  It's more about talent than opportunity for me that I believe talents finds a way to be relevant.  I'm also trying to bump RB's a little higher than I agree with because they tend to hit quicker than any other position.  Not exactly striking confidence in a guy like Johnson though.  Simply put, my top 5RB's will always be my top5 RB's no matter the landing spot.  Barkley, Guice, Chubb, RoJo, Michel.  

Yes sir, Kerryon.

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15 hours ago, Bazinga! said:

I agree with your order except I have Ebron over Brate.  I would have those two on top if they had Eifert or Burtons situation

Where does Kittle go in that list? 

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43 minutes ago, Buckna said:

To add to the Julio discussion a few days ago, i woke up to an offer of the 1.02 plus JJ Nelson for my Julio this morning.

 

I'm not hurting at RB with Bell, Hunt & Cook but decided to take the trade anyway given Julio turns 30 next Feb.  Its likely a hit in points for 2018 and possibly 2019 too but I was points leader last year so thought i could afford it for a chance to improve and reload longer term. I've got AJG and Cooks at WR still, with a few flyers like Fuller and K.Benji, so will be shopping for a younger WR with upside now. Or i might try to upgrade QB or TE, or trade down, or swap a RB for a different WR. I think the trade gives me lots more options now.

I think the 1.02is quite weak this year and people seem to be writing off Julio too early. Pretty much hate that trade.

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47 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Thielens value relative to a rookie pick?  Mid-late 1st?  

Yeah, I'd say 1.06 or so in a normal PPR league. You might have trouble getting that at this time of the year due to rookie fever, but as of now I'd take him over any of the incoming rookie WRs. 

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9 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

I think the 1.02is quite weak this year and people seem to be writing off Julio too early. Pretty much hate that trade.

I agree on both accounts. Don't hate the trade, but I wouldn't consider it if I was competitive. Someone at 1.2 will end up more valuable than Julio, but each one is a significant risk and I wouldn't be confident of picking right.

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1 minute ago, thriftyrocker said:

I agree on both accounts. Don't hate the trade, but I wouldn't consider it if I was competitive. Someone at 1.2 will end up more valuable than Julio, but each one is a significant risk and I wouldn't be confident of picking right.

Agree it depends on specifics of your team, but I think that's a strong return if you're looking to cash out on a 29-year old receiver. Especially if you believe in Derrius Guice (who is 20 years old). 

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Thanks, was leaning that way as I loved Cohen's early games, but was disappointed that he kind of fell off a cliff. Have to put some of that on coaching, though. I watched some quick youtube videos of Barber's best games last season and didn't come away impressed. Figure they'll probably replace him in the draft with how deep the RB class is this year.

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28 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

I think the 1.02is quite weak this year and people seem to be writing off Julio too early. Pretty much hate that trade.

It wasn't an easy decision as Julio is still producing at a top level. However he has had injury problems in the past so I don't expect him to have the longevity of other stud WRs. Also people will be looking at this as his turning 30 season (despite his Bday being in Feb), even a slight hiccup in his production like AJG this past year and his value will plummet. Also better to get out a year early, than a year late.

 

Also highly disagree with the bolded, I fully expect at least 1 if not 2 other RBs than Barkley to go in the 1st and to go to good destinations. I personally have the 1.02 at least as equal if not more valuable than the 1.01 last year (and I loved Fournette.) And you're also assuming I keep the 1.02, still a lot of time until my league drafts and I've already got people reaching out on it less than 10 mins after I traded for it.

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What's Kittle's trade value in PPR? I'm trying to trade for him, but having trouble with an offer as my starters are too good to offer & I fear my bench may not do it. Jared Cook straight up for him good enough or bad for me? Maybe offer Everett?

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5 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

Thanks, was leaning that way as I loved Cohen's early games, but was disappointed that he kind of fell off a cliff. Have to put some of that on coaching, though. I watched some quick youtube videos of Barber's best games last season and didn't come away impressed. Figure they'll probably replace him in the draft with how deep the RB class is this year.

Yes Barber is likely a backup and with Cohen I think you want to see him with a different coach in general but you might not have found a better choice then Nagy.  Be good to also see how Cohen does in an offense where he's not such a focal point either.

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Just now, Magic_Man said:

What's Kittle's trade value in PPR? I'm trying to trade for him, but having trouble with an offer as my starters are too good to offer & I fear my bench may not do it. Jared Cook straight up for him good enough or bad for me? Maybe offer Everett?

You're not going to get him for Cook or Everett straight up. 

Kittle's a relatively hot commodity but I'd be looking to sell if I could get top-10 dynasty TE value for him. Not sure how much this has been talked about in dynasty community, but the 49ers came really close to landing Tyler Eifert last week and finished runner up to Cincinnati. So I don't think Kittle's as locked into that TE1 role as some think. 

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Just now, bengalbuck said:

You're not going to get him for Cook or Everett straight up. 

Kittle's a relatively hot commodity but I'd be looking to sell if I could get top-10 dynasty TE value for him. Not sure how much this has been talked about in dynasty community, but the 49ers came really close to landing Tyler Eifert last week and finished runner up to Cincinnati. So I don't think Kittle's as locked into that TE1 role as some think. 

So if I could get him for Cook, I should then? ;)

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5 minutes ago, bengalbuck said:

You're not going to get him for Cook or Everett straight up. 

Kittle's a relatively hot commodity but I'd be looking to sell if I could get top-10 dynasty TE value for him. Not sure how much this has been talked about in dynasty community, but the 49ers came really close to landing Tyler Eifert last week and finished runner up to Cincinnati. So I don't think Kittle's as locked into that TE1 role as some think. 

It was between Rams and Bengals for Eifert, not San Fran.

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Just now, menobrown said:

It was between Rams and Bengals for Eifert, not San Fran.

The rumor here in Cincy is Rams were third, San Fran 2nd. But I guess it doesn't really matter in this context because the point was that the 49ers were out there trying to add a top receiving TE. 

The only news outlet I saw reporting the two teams was Bengals.com, but maybe you've seen something else. 

 

Quote

The Bengals, believed to have edged out the Rams and 49ers in the Eifert Derby. 

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Eifert-I-owe-them-a-good-year/8531cac9-6289-433e-9d13-1decbcb81b01

 

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Just now, bengalbuck said:

 

The only news outlet I saw reporting the two teams was Bengals.com, but maybe you've seen something else. 

 

 

 

 

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/03/15/cincinnati-bengals-tyler-eifert/420500002/

From that link:

He did have a decision to make, though. Multiple league sources told The Enquirer Eifert had to decide between the Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams.  

He afforded the club an opportunity to match the Rams' offer that could push the deal to about $8.5 million should he hit all of his performance incentives. He earned a $3 million signing bonus and a $500,000 workout bonus. He also can also earn up to $1 million if he plays every game by receiving a $62,500 per game if he's on the active 46-man roster. .

 

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2 minutes ago, bengalbuck said:

The rumor here in Cincy is Rams were third, San Fran 2nd. But I guess it doesn't really matter in this context because the point was that the 49ers were out there trying to add a top receiving TE. 

Doesn't really matter now, because there are no notable TEs left in free agency. Kittle may have come close to losing his job... but he didn't. So now he's in a prime situation. 2nd year TE returning to the same offense. Can't say his 5 games with JG were that exciting, but for a rookie TE they weren't terrible. Those 5 games would project out to 48/717/3. His actual full season numbers of 43/515/2 were not bad for a rookie 5th rounder. I only checked Howard, Njoku, and Everett but I'm assuming he finished 2nd in rookie TE scoring last year.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/george-kittle/

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36 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I own Julio in a few leagues, would take 1.2 for him in all.

Yeah I would think in PPR leagues Julio and pick 2 would just be based on what your team looks like, but I can see preferring pick 2 no matter the case.  Say pick 2 is 50-50 you "hit" on that player, which will be a RB.  A top RB is worth more than a top WR for a team's success.  If that RB is a good one, you got a good RB for like 7 years.  How many good years does Julio have left?  3? If the RB you draft sucks, you get 0 good years.  Average that out, 3.5 years based on 50-50 hit rate.  Julio 3 years.  3.5>3.  

Just sort of how I view it.  

If you have nice RBs and need a WR and have like a 2 year title window, then sure, choose Julio.  If not, I can see pick 2 pretty easy.

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4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Yeah I would think in PPR leagues Julio and pick 2 would just be based on what your team looks like, but I can see preferring pick 2 no matter the case.  Say pick 2 is 50-50 you "hit" on that player, which will be a RB.  A top RB is worth more than a top WR for a team's success.  If that RB is a good one, you got a good RB for like 7 years.  How many good years does Julio have left?  3? If the RB you draft sucks, you get 0 good years.  Average that out, 3.5 years based on 50-50 hit rate.  Julio 3 years.  3.5>3.  

Just sort of how I view it.  

If you have nice RBs and need a WR and have like a 2 year title window, then sure, choose Julio.  If not, I can see pick 2 pretty easy.

For sure a lot depends on if you need a WR or RB on your team but in terms of value I think the safe bet is actually the rookie. If Julio is even just a little better than last season and ends up in the low end WR1/WR2 range he's going to lose value.  Most high pedigreed RB's, even when they do next to nothing as rookies, maintain strong value.

I'm not sure how much lower people are on AJ Green vs Julio but just a few days ago I turned down an offer of AJ Green, Drake and 1.9 for the 1.2 and I'd sure have taken that for Julio. This is what I tend to think of as the buying power of the 1.2.

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5 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Doesn't really matter now, because there are no notable TEs left in free agency. Kittle may have come close to losing his job... but he didn't. So now he's in a prime situation. 2nd year TE returning to the same offense. Can't say his 5 games with JG were that exciting, but for a rookie TE they weren't terrible. Those 5 games would project out to 48/717/3. His actual full season numbers of 43/515/2 were not bad for a rookie 5th rounder. I only checked Howard, Njoku, and Everett but I'm assuming he finished 2nd in rookie TE scoring last year.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/george-kittle/

I don't dislike Kittle by any means. I had him basically tied at TE8 in dynasty value with Rudolph, Eifert, Olsen, and Doyle (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=hindery2018marchtradevalue). But I've seen people take him surprisingly high in some recent startups. 

I have a tough time with the 49ers RB/WR/TEs because I am very bullish on the offense in general, but feel like I have to acknowledge that they were really low in talent last year and have plenty of money and draft capital to upgrade their pass catchers going forward. After Garcon went down, it was Goodwin, Kendrick Bourne, Aldrick Robinson, Garrett Celek, Louis Murphy and the Day 3 rookies (Kittle and Trent Taylor). How much of the production for the two rookies was good system and nobody else to throw to? Tough for me to say. Even though Kittle and Taylor made it through FA without any real added competition, the 49ers still have 4 picks in the top-75 and plenty of money for FA in future years. 

 

 

 

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