Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)

[jeaton6]

Ok to talk about how league setting impacts player values? 

In a PPR startup doing 3 RB and 3 WR as starters. No flex. How much more valuable does this make RB? Is a guy like Derrick Henry more valuable than AJG, Arob, etc in this format? 

How about McCoy, Ingram, etc?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Have we talked Henry post-Lewis?  Anyone still willing to pay a mid-1st?  

I would not. This has to kill his value. I think he'll still have some nice games but it's hard to imagine consistency as the 1b, at best, in a RBBC.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ok to talk about how league setting impacts player values? 

In a startup doing 3 RB and 3 WR as starters. No flex. How much more valuable does this make RB? Is a guy like Derrick Henry more valuable than AJG, Arob, etc in this format? 

Didn't you once say you were in like 36 leagues? A startup?

I would say that RBs definitely have more value in that set-up, how much more still comes down to philosophy. I personally would not rank Henry over guys like that, but it's far from an outrageous stance to do so when you need to start 3 RBs. If I was in a start up I'd still take ARob and Green before him and just load up on backup RBs and lesser rookie RBs late.

 

[jeaton6]

Didn't you once say you were in like 36 leagues? A startup?

I would say that RBs definitely have more value in that set-up, how much more still comes down to philosophy. I personally would not rank Henry over guys like that, but it's far from an outrageous stance to do so when you need to start 3 RBs. If I was in a start up I'd still take ARob and Green before him and just load up on backup RBs and lesser rookie RBs late.

Lol it was 16. Maybe it’s 18 now  Yeah they are flying off the shelf. Just having hard time knowing what’s about to be left and feel like I’m going to Jam WR hard but since you can only start 3 vs traditional being able to start 3+1 not sure if it’s right strategy or not.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Have we talked Henry post-Lewis?  Anyone still willing to pay a mid-1st?  

No

 

[fruity pebbles]

Have we talked Henry post-Lewis?  Anyone still willing to pay a mid-1st?  

Not me. Not for a two down thumper.

 

[FF Ninja]

Have we talked Henry post-Lewis?  Anyone still willing to pay a mid-1st?  

Nope. That situation is weird as hell, though. I thought I read that the new coaching staff actually met or called Henry's agent to assure him that Henry was their guy... then a couple days later they sign Dion Lewis. Several analysts even speculating that Lewis is the starter there. I'm doubtful about that, but definitely no longer want any part of Henry in PPR format. Dion's value could've been much more if he'd gone somewhere like Indy, but what's his value now? He turns 28 in 6 months and has an injury label (even though he's only really had two injuries of note) which will work against him.

If RB was a need in PPR, I might give an early 2nd for either one of them, but would really want to see how the draft shakes out first. Could see just taking Penny or Freeman (or even Ballage in the right situation) and hoping for the best. But then again, I don't have an early 2nd or need RB...

 

[bostonfred]

Have we talked Henry post-Lewis?  Anyone still willing to pay a mid-1st?  

Yes. Signing Lewis may have taken away his Elliot/ bell upside (getting all of the rushing attempts and/or receptions) but not his rb1 upside.  He's still a capable receiver even if he won't be the third down back.  He's still likely to lead the team in carries, especially when we get to the cold weather, for a team with a good line and that is expected to use the zone blocking scheme that he excelled with in college.  He's still the goal line and fourth quarter running back, which gives him touchdown and big play upside. And he's still very talented so he may be able to earn a stud rb1 split. 

I think it's reasonable to project him at 1000/10 (220 carries at 4.4 is 968 yards) right now, with upside from there.  He also averages over 10 yards a catch for his career (and over 10 yards a catch in each year of his career, and over 10 yards a catch in the post season, etc - this isn't one flukey catch).  Even wth Murray acting as the receiving back, Henry still got about 20 catches a year, so he should still catch some balls. Those are low end rb1 numbers even if Lewis is getting a big share of the workload - and we know that Lewis has had a lot of injury issues in the past, so even if he stays healthy all season, they may try to manage his use, because coaches do that.  

The Lewis signing at the money they signed him for undoubtedly adds more risk than other third round/ CoP backs would have, but people are over adjusting right now. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I think it's reasonable to project him at 1000/10 (220 carries at 4.4 is 968 yards) right now, with upside from there. 

Where you getting 4.4 ypc? The dude lucked into two 70+ yard TDs when he was supposed to get a first down and fall over to ice the game... and still only ended up with 4.2 ypc. 

I hate to be that guy, but those were some fluky carries so I'm going to do it anyway... take those two runs out and he's at 3.4 ypc. 

I'm really just being a devil's advocate here. I've had my eye on Henry since he came out and wanted to try to acquire him this year. So I haven't been down on him as a talent, but 2017 certainly gave me pause... and then with the Dion signing I think I feel comfortable letting someone else hang onto him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

 He's still likely to lead the team in carries, especially when we get to the cold weather,

Serious question - how many cold weather games will Tennesse actually play in? Even for teams in cold weather cities that number is limited to 1-3 most seasons.

 

[bostonfred]

Where you getting 4.4 ypc? The dude lucked into two 70+ yard TDs when he was supposed to get a first down and fall over to ice the game... and still only ended up with 4.2 ypc. 

2016 he was 4.5, 2017 he was 4.2. 

Saying he lucked into big carries is not exactly fair - it's good that he's capable of big carries, and it's good that he gets them at the end of the game because part of his role is running the clock out at the end of the game. That's like saying a third down back benefited from running the ball for 15 yards on third and 20. That's what happens over the course of 16 games.  

If you have reason to believe he won't get any more big carries that's different.  But maybe he gets more big carries. If Lewis is more effective than an injured Murray, and Henry (who was already more effective than Murray last year) gets more carries, there should be more opportunities to break big plays and there may be more fourth quarter leads to protect. 

But call it 900 to 1000 yards rushing if it helps.  Add another 11 for 136 receiving which he got both years as a backup.  You're still over 1000 total yards with room for upside. And double digit touchdowns seems pretty attainable, because Henry and Murray combined for 30 touchdowns the last two seasons, and Lewis, who has 10 career rushing touchdowns, is unlikely to be the goal line guy. 

 

[bostonfred]

Serious question - how many cold weather games will Tennesse actually play in? Even for teams in cold weather cities that number is limited to 1-3 most seasons.

Interssying question.  For our purposes, cold weather really means any time the coaches would adjust their approach towards a bigger back, and I suspect vrabel is pretty likely to make those adjustments late in the season. But there's no way to know that for sure.

 

[FF Ninja]

2016 he was 4.5, 2017 he was 4.2. 

Saying he lucked into big carries is not exactly fair - it's good that he's capable of big carries, and it's good that he gets them at the end of the game because part of his role is running the clock out at the end of the game. That's like saying a third down back benefited from running the ball for 15 yards on third and 20. That's what happens over the course of 16 games.  

If you have reason to believe he won't get any more big carries that's different.  But maybe he gets more big carries. If Lewis is more effective than an injured Murray, and Henry (who was already more effective than Murray last year) gets more carries, there should be more opportunities to break big plays and there may be more fourth quarter leads to protect. 

But call it 900 to 1000 yards rushing if it helps.  Add another 11 for 136 receiving which he got both years as a backup.  You're still over 1000 total yards with room for upside. And double digit touchdowns seems pretty attainable, because Henry and Murray combined for 30 touchdowns the last two seasons, and Lewis, who has 10 career rushing touchdowns, is unlikely to be the goal line guy. 

Oh, it's very fair. Those were some flukish runs. I would bet against him having any runs over 70 yards in 2018, much less two of them on less than 200 carries. As for his 4.5 ypc in 2016, he was the clear backup, getting 1 carry for every 3 for Murray. I don't think you can extrapolate that when he moves from backup to an early down grinder role.

And FWIW, I do negatively judge a 3rd down back for getting 15 yards on 3rd and 20. Guys who play a lot on 3rd down and in the 2-minute drill should have their ypc taken with a grain of salt. Situational usage can trick people into thinking Duke Johnson is good. Situation matters. Context matters. That's why I pointed out those runs. They were weird and they greatly skewed his stats.

That being said, I don't think you're wrong about him being able to approach 1000 yards rushing. It's among the reasonable outcomes. I'm sure they'd like to rush him more than 220 times and hopefully the offense is improved from last year (did not look nearly as good as 2016). The offensive line should still be a top unit. But right now we don't know how big of a role Dion will play or just how good Henry actually will be as a lead back. It is nice that he can break long gains, but when the entire (tired/defeated) defense is at the LoS, it leads to some flukish long runs - LenDale White once had an 80 yard TD in a situation like that - so Henry's two long TDs when closing out games mean very little to me. 

 

[Buckna]

Where you getting 4.4 ypc? The dude lucked into two 70+ yard TDs when he was supposed to get a first down and fall over to ice the game... and still only ended up with 4.2 ypc. 

I hate to be that guy, but those were some fluky carries so I'm going to do it anyway... take those two runs out and he's at 3.4 ypc. 

I'm really just being a devil's advocate here. I've had my eye on Henry since he came out and wanted to try to acquire him this year. So I haven't been down on him as a talent, but 2017 certainly gave me pause... and then with the Dion signing I think I feel comfortable letting someone else hang onto him.

I've kicked the tires with Henry owners since he was drafted but his owners have always valued him as if he were already a top stud, and the Lewis signing has not soured them on him at all. I'd pay a mid range first, but when I've reached out it's always been going to take a top rookie pick or WR1 to pry him away. I've got enough concerns with him moving to full time that no way I pay that. Looking at his splits, Henry did all his damage in the 4th quarter of games with those big runs you mentioned. Obviously as you mentioned parcing out the statistics has its drawbacks, but everyone called Murray old and washed up this past year but over the first 3 qtrs. Murray averaged 3.67 ypc and Henry avg 3.27 ypc, with the sample size being small of course. Henry might transition easily to getting more early down work and maybe still maintain a high ypc overall and break more big runs early. But to acquire him you'd have to pay a price as if that was a certainty.

IMO, they didn't pay Lewis that much to be strictly a 3rd down or COP back. Plus with his injury history and turning 28, I think they go RB in the draft as well for depth. Their coaching staff is a big unknown as well, Vrabel is highly regarded but has barely any experience coaching (1 yr as a DC where a great defense the year before fell apart, granted there were major injuries.) Same with LaFleur who has 1 yr as an OC under McVay who called his own plays. These guys might be the next wunderkind's or they might be in way over their heads.

 

[RC94]

If you wanted to trade Julio Jones for young player(s) and/or draft picks, what would you have to get?  As great as Julio is, the age difference is something that the other team will certainly consider as a negative.

 

[menobrown]

If you wanted to trade Julio Jones for young player(s) and/or draft picks, what would you have to get? 

Have not seem him traded in a league of mine this off season or got an offer for him but I made a few offers to move him.

I offered him straight up for Tyreek Hill a week or so ago and got rejected and straight up for Amari Cooper in another league and got rejected. So that's what I was trying to get but could not get it in terms of young players. Not sure on draft pick yet, since the leagues I've looked at moving him I'm trying to get a young WR in his place I've focused on getting that in return and right now if you guaranteed me any WR in this draft class for Julio I'd easily I'd pass and just keep Julio.

 

[barackdhouse]

I was offered Julio, Winston and Lamar Miller for Fournette and I turned him down. Last week.

 

[Pwingles]

Gonna piggy back on the Julio questions;

whats the gap from D Adams to Julio?

Also, Julio and DT

 

[Concept Coop]

Gonna piggy back on the Julio questions;

whats the gap from D Adams to Julio?

Also, Julio and DT

I think it's perfectly reasonable to value them equally, or even prefer Adams.  That said, I prefer Julio and would need a pick in the 1.10 range, assuming one of my guys is on the board.  

Demaryius doesn't move the needle much at all, in a deal involving Julio.  I'd view him as a throw in.  Julio ~ 1.02.

 

[Concept Coop]

I was offered Julio, Winston and Lamar Miller for Fournette and I turned him down. Last week.

Did your roster play a part, or do you just like Lenny that much more than Julio?

 

[Pwingles]

I think it's perfectly reasonable to value them equally, or even prefer Adams.  That said, I prefer Julio and would need a pick in the 1.10 range, assuming one of my guys is on the board.  

Demaryius doesn't move the needle much at all, in a deal involving Julio.  I'd view him as a throw in.  Julio ~ 1.02.

Do you mean in addition to Adams? So DA+1.10 ish for Julio?

I am trying to move Julio but am not looking to give him away, id rather just ride it out until he is done if i cant get a decent return.

Guy in my league has the 1.11, Adams, and DT in terms of assets I think he would part with. I am not certain he would move Adams, but I also am not sure a straight swap is reasonable for either of us really.

My initial offer was going to be adams and the 1.11 for julio and 2.03, but my fall back if he wasnt budging on Adams was going to be DT and that pick (not his) and a pick next year or something along those lines. Julios value seems to be all over the place right now

 

[Ack88]

Do you mean in addition to Adams? So DA+1.10 ish for Julio?

I am trying to move Julio but am not looking to give him away, id rather just ride it out until he is done if i cant get a decent return.

Guy in my league has the 1.11, Adams, and DT in terms of assets I think he would part with. I am not certain he would move Adams, but I also am not sure a straight swap is reasonable for either of us really.

My initial offer was going to be adams and the 1.11 for julio and 2.03, but my fall back if he wasnt budging on Adams was going to be DT and that pick (not his) and a pick next year or something along those lines. Julios value seems to be all over the place right now

FWIW- I like the Julio and 2.03 side of that deal but the return to both sides looks fairly commensurate.

 

[Concept Coop]

Do you mean in addition to Adams? So DA+1.10 ish for Julio?

I am trying to move Julio but am not looking to give him away, id rather just ride it out until he is done if i cant get a decent return.

Guy in my league has the 1.11, Adams, and DT in terms of assets I think he would part with. I am not certain he would move Adams, but I also am not sure a straight swap is reasonable for either of us really.

My initial offer was going to be adams and the 1.11 for julio and 2.03, but my fall back if he wasnt budging on Adams was going to be DT and that pick (not his) and a pick next year or something along those lines. Julios value seems to be all over the place right now

Yeah, in a vacuum, I'd want DA+1.10.   In your shoes, I'd start with DA+1.11.  I would not do that DT deal, unless I was confident the future pick would be early.  

 

[Pwingles]

FWIW- I like the Julio and 2.03 side of that deal but the return to both sides looks fairly commensurate.

My wr core is pretty solid, for dynasty purposes Julio is my wr3 behind Nuk and Evans. Also have C Davis, C Coleman, Funch, Dez, Mike Williams (LAC) 

The thought process really is just to get younger, Adams is a guy who I think is obv on the uptick value wise but will never be cheaper than today. Paired with those other 2 and possibly davis, I think that could end up being very formidable.

Yeah, in a vacuum, I'd want DA+1.10.   In your shoes, I'd start with DA+1.11.  I would not do that DT deal, unless I was confident the future pick would be early.  

 I feel ya on the DT deal. I will start with Adams and the pick and see what he comes back with, Thx guys

 

[Arodin]

If you wanted to trade Julio Jones for young player(s) and/or draft picks, what would you have to get?  As great as Julio is, the age difference is something that the other team will certainly consider as a negative.

I was offered Julio for ARob and 1.5 earlier this week, and declined but thought about it.  I think that is probably typical of what he would cost.

 

[Biabreakable]

Serious question - how many cold weather games will Tennesse actually play in? Even for teams in cold weather cities that number is limited to 1-3 most seasons.

I thought Fred was channeling Hue Jackson or something with that statement.

As a Minnesotan, I find this idea that bigger RB do better in cold weather a myth. The only way that is true is because coaches may believe its true and act accordingly. I don't see any logical reason for this to be the case.

That said Lewis hasn't been able to stay healthy long so far in his career, not sure why this would be the year he actually does.

I wasn't expecting Henry to catch a lot of passes anyways and I think others have always been higher than Henry than I have been. To me Henry is a strong RB two but I doubt he becomes a RB one. I guess I have to see him do that first before I will believe it. Strong RB two is still close enough though.

 

[Biabreakable]

Do you mean in addition to Adams? So DA+1.10 ish for Julio?

I am trying to move Julio but am not looking to give him away, id rather just ride it out until he is done if i cant get a decent return.

Guy in my league has the 1.11, Adams, and DT in terms of assets I think he would part with. I am not certain he would move Adams, but I also am not sure a straight swap is reasonable for either of us really.

My initial offer was going to be adams and the 1.11 for julio and 2.03, but my fall back if he wasnt budging on Adams was going to be DT and that pick (not his) and a pick next year or something along those lines. Julios value seems to be all over the place right now

This seems fine if you want to get younger at WR.

I don't think there is that much or any gap between Julio, Adams and Thomas. From my perspective they are all about the same tier, I would just have Julio at the top of that tier.

If Keenum plays well (I think he could although it isn't a given) I could see Thomas having a better season than last year. He is the kind of WR that doesn't need great QB play to be successful.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

If you wanted to trade Julio Jones for young player(s) and/or draft picks, what would you have to get?  As great as Julio is, the age difference is something that the other team will certainly consider as a negative.

Julio's value seems to be right around the 1.02 right now, where I think he makes for a pretty good sell candidate. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Did your roster play a part, or do you just like Lenny that much more than Julio?

Yeah it's FFPC. I like Julio but am not interested in Winston or Miller much. I don't think it was a bad offer, but I am trying to rebuild my RB corps. I'm open to moving LF but it would probably have to involve another RB. Not named Miller.

 

[menobrown]

Yeah it's FFPC. I like Julio but am not interested in Winston or Miller much. I don't think it was a bad offer, but I am trying to rebuild my RB corps. I'm open to moving LF but it would probably have to involve another RB. Not named Miller.

I'd have also passed for the reasons you mentioned. Just not much interest in Winston or Miller.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to value them equally, or even prefer Adams.  That said, I prefer Julio and would need a pick in the 1.10 range, assuming one of my guys is on the board.  

Demaryius doesn't move the needle much at all, in a deal involving Julio.  I'd view him as a throw in.  Julio ~ 1.02.

Agree with this take. Julio is a superior player to Adams but to get 3 years younger I can see the equal valuation. I prefer Julio but can see it both ways.

Demaryius does not belong in the conversation with the other two.

  I'd say Adams and Julio are in the same neighborhood, same price range. Just depends what you like.  Think of DT as shopping in the same neighborhood you'd find Dez Bryant.

 

[Snorkelson]

Word has come out that the chargers like Ronald jones, and want to spell Gordon for 12-15 carries a game. With so many good rbs out there and only so many jobs up for grabs (Indy, tb, sea, among others) I wonder who is going to end up in a committee with a vet. Hyde, Crowell, Stewart, blount could be roadblocks, and those are teams we expect to draft a rb. Someone will throw a surprise in there by taking someone or ignoring the need. A really good back could easily end up in a timeshare. Conversely, one of the tier 2 guys like Johnson, Ballage, kelly could end up with a better path to playing time. How do you weigh playing time into evaluations? 

 

[Andrew74]

Word has come out that the chargers like Ronald jones, and want to spell Gordon for 12-15 carries a game. With so many good rbs out there and only so many jobs up for grabs (Indy, tb, sea, among others) I wonder who is going to end up in a committee with a vet. Hyde, Crowell, Stewart, blount could be roadblocks, and those are teams we expect to draft a rb. Someone will throw a surprise in there by taking someone or ignoring the need. A really good back could easily end up in a timeshare. Conversely, one of the tier 2 guys like Johnson, Ballage, kelly could end up with a better path to playing time. How do you weigh playing time into evaluations? 

By my quick math, during the FF season Gordon averaged 17.8 carries, 5 targets, and 3.5 receptions a game.  So are you saying the Chargers want to replace Gordon or is somebody’s numbers wrong?

 

[Snorkelson]

By my quick math, during the FF season Gordon averaged 17.8 carries, 5 targets, and 3.5 receptions a game.  So are you saying the Chargers want to replace Gordon or is somebody’s numbers wrong?

I just read it in the rojo thread. Not reading too much into it other than perhaps they like rojo or they don’t like ekeler as much as some people do. I don’t think Gordon will lose his job but if he gets dinged on volume a little it will tank his value. 

My question, or the point I’d like to discuss, is how do you guys weigh talent vs opportunity particularly at the top 15-20 picks. 2nd/3rd rds I’ll usually defer to opportunity. Let’s say Johnson ends up in TB or Indy and Chubb ends up in Cleveland with hyde. Does that vault Johnson into the top 5 and sink Chubb to back half of rd 1? 

 

[Bojang0301]

If Ronald Jones goes to the Chargers maybe I can finally get ####### Austin Eckler at a reasonable price.

 

[-OZ-]

Have we talked Henry post-Lewis?  Anyone still willing to pay a mid-1st?  

PPR? No. 

Non PPR? Seems close. 

I don't think all 5 of the top RB prospects will do better than Henry for their careers, and the receivers aren't exceptional this year. Henry will get at least a 50/50 split but I don't think he'll be as big a factor in the passing game as Dion. 1.06 seems about right imo.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

PPR? No. 

Non PPR? Seems close. 

I don't think all 5 of the top RB prospects will do better than Henry for their careers, and the receivers aren't exceptional this year. Henry will get at least a 50/50 split but I don't think he'll be as big a factor in the passing game as Dion. 1.06 seems about right imo.

I said "no" originally but this is a good way to look at it. I would wait until after the NFL draft at this point, but would consider it even in ppr.

 

[NeverEnough]

I think it's perfectly reasonable to value them equally, or even prefer Adams.  That said, I prefer Julio and would need a pick in the 1.10 range, assuming one of my guys is on the board.  

Demaryius doesn't move the needle much at all, in a deal involving Julio.  I'd view him as a throw in.  Julio ~ 1.02.

I own Adams in PPR dynasty & would not take JJ for him.However, in some sort of package deal that improved me a good bit elsewhere , I'd give it serious thought.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I own Adams in PPR dynasty & would not take JJ for him.However, in some sort of package deal that improved me a good bit elsewhere while not killing me at WR, I'd give it serious thought.

Maybe I'm misreading something - but if you traded Adams for Julio in a package - how would it ever be killing you at WR? You'd be getting the more productive WR back in the deal. I could see you valuing Adams more based on age, but I'm not following the "while not killing me at WR" part.

 

[NeverEnough]

Maybe I'm misreading something - but if you traded Adams for Julio in a package - how would it ever be killing you at WR? You'd be getting the more productive WR back in the deal. I could see you valuing Adams more based on age, but I'm not following the "while not killing me at WR" part.

Sorry, was reading something else while replying. Fixed.

 

[Tau837]

Word has come out that the chargers like Ronald jones

From what source? I haven't seen any mention of this.

I think the Chargers need to draft a RB, but probably not until the 3rd round at the absolute earliest, and I would prefer 4th or 5th round, given their defensive needs. So I wasn't expecting Jones to be a candidate for them.

ETA: I saw that you said it was posted in the Jones thread.

 

[Zyphros]

I just read it in the rojo thread. Not reading too much into it other than perhaps they like rojo or they don’t like ekeler as much as some people do. I don’t think Gordon will lose his job but if he gets dinged on volume a little it will tank his value. 

My question, or the point I’d like to discuss, is how do you guys weigh talent vs opportunity particularly at the top 15-20 picks. 2nd/3rd rds I’ll usually defer to opportunity. Let’s say Johnson ends up in TB or Indy and Chubb ends up in Cleveland with hyde. Does that vault Johnson into the top 5 and sink Chubb to back half of rd 1? 

I can only speak for myself but I am extremely unlikely to change my ~top10 no matter the situation.  I might move them around a little but the players are likely to stay.  The caveat to that is if one of those guys goes much later in the actual draft than I expect.  For example Michael Gallup is in that range for me, and if he goes in the 4th round or later then I can see myself moving someone higher and bumping Gallup down a little.  I prefer to draft on the talent that I had them at before I knew their situation.  Obviously situation matters but I don't see me vaulting anyone higher than #8 if the draft breaks perfectly for someone. 

If Johnson ends up in TB and Chubb goes to Cleveland, Chubb would likely be #5 for me while Kerryon might move to around 15-20 (currently 29 on my board)?  Totally guessing here for projected slots on my board but Chubb is 3x the talent Kerryon is.  No chance I move a guy like that below the other.  

 

[kutta]

If Ronald Jones goes to the Chargers maybe I can finally get ####### Austin Eckler at a reasonable price.

I own Eckler and can't get the Gordon owner to bite at almost any price. It's weird.

 

[flapgreen]

Any discussion on dion Lewis in here? Seems like he would come at a reasonable price 

 

[menobrown]

I just read it in the rojo thread. Not reading too much into it other than perhaps they like rojo or they don’t like ekeler as much as some people do. I don’t think Gordon will lose his job but if he gets dinged on volume a little it will tank his value. 

My question, or the point I’d like to discuss, is how do you guys weigh talent vs opportunity particularly at the top 15-20 picks. 2nd/3rd rds I’ll usually defer to opportunity. Let’s say Johnson ends up in TB or Indy and Chubb ends up in Cleveland with hyde. Does that vault Johnson into the top 5 and sink Chubb to back half of rd 1? 

I already have Johnson ahead of Chubb and as my RB5 so yes on Johnson of course and no I'd not pick Chubb in back of round one under this scenario.

But talent, opportunity and pedigree are all part of the equation. Difficult to quantify but it's just all part of the puzzle and how it all fits. Could go and and on with examples,and maybe I will later, but you have to take into account the whole picture and for that whole picture is talent, opportunity and pedigree.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I own Eckler and can't get the Gordon owner to bite at almost any price. It's weird.

Same experience for me.

 

[Snorkelson]

I already have Johnson ahead of Chubb and as my RB5 so yes on Johnson of course and no I'd not pick Chubb in back of round one under this scenario.

But talent, opportunity and pedigree are all part of the equation. Difficult to quantify but it's just all part of the puzzle and how it all fits. Could go and and on with examples,and maybe I will later, but you have to take into account the whole picture and for that whole picture is talent, opportunity and pedigree.

Interesting the contrast between you and zyphros on this, in theory and in Johnson ranking. I tried to pick a guy who was maybe 2-5 right now with a guy maybe 7-15. 

 

[Snorkelson]

Any discussion on dion Lewis in here? Seems like he would come at a reasonable price 

If you get return ydg and ppr then Lewis is a rb2. Henry will get his share, he’s earned it, and Lewis will get his as well. But they will sap each other’s value and have off weeks. Henry will be the guy wearing down defenses if they have a lead, Lewis getting dump offs if they’re behind. I’d rather have mckinnon if I’m spending 1.08-1.12 for Lewis or henry

 

[voiceofunreason]

If you get return ydg and ppr then Lewis is a rb2. Henry will get his share, he’s earned it, and Lewis will get his as well. But they will sap each other’s value and have off weeks. Henry will be the guy wearing down defenses if they have a lead, Lewis getting dump offs if they’re behind. I’d rather have mckinnon if I’m spending 1.08-1.12 for Lewis or henry

I don't think Henry has earned it. Murray was banged up all year and I think the titans would have loved to feed him but he underwhelmed. It's a real fluid situation. I wouldn't bet on anyone atm.

 

[saintfool]

How would you rank these TEs (1ppr).  I see all of them as TE2s with TE1 upside (to varying degrees). 

Eifert

Burton

Brate

ASJ

Ebron

Burton - improving offense; 

Eifert - health is a concern; could be end up with most TDs of this bunch

Brate - productive but I believe Howard is still better

Ebron - Doyle might be get more snaps still

ASJ - this is still a running team with better options at WR; could end up as a great redzone target

 

[menobrown]

Interesting the contrast between you and zyphros on this, in theory and in Johnson ranking. I tried to pick a guy who was maybe 2-5 right now with a guy maybe 7-15. 

I think in terms of fantasy community the RB I'm higher on then majority is Johnson and the one I'm lower on then majority is Chubb so not surprising. But I'm for sure not a man on an island with preferring Johnson and most people who are not in fantasy have them close.

Like a few examples. In DJ's latest top 50 he's got Chubb at #49 and Johnson at #50. In Bucky Brooks latest top 5 RB's he has none of these two in this top 5 but underneath the top 5 he lists just these two as "just missing the cut". In short I think most of the NFL community has them close, but fantasy community has consistently had Chubb rated higher.