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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (16 Viewers)

I think it is rather meaningless that Booker has a higher YPR and catch % than CJA. Booker was in the game on designed pass plays, whereas many of CJA's targets were dump offs and throw aways (thrown at feet to avoid sack/intentional grounding). A guy running a route is almost always going to have higher YPR than a guy catching a dump off.

That's not to say Booker sucks, just that it's meaningless to say he's better "by objective metrics" in the pass game than CJA. 

But on the topic of Booker's trade value, would packaging Henderson with him make much difference in value to anyone?

 
dipandglide said:
How are you guys feeling about Thielen? Where would you value him in the rookie draft?
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Adam Thielen was WR 12 in standard scoring last season and WR 8 in PPR scoring. He performed as a WR one last year.

He also put up very good numbers in 2016 although this was more sporadic than what he did last season. He is good enough that when Diggs is out of the lineup Thielen can pick up the slack and do more when needed. 

Adam Thielen is a very efficient WR as measured by yards per target and comparing that to other WR. Going into 2017 Adam Thielen had 10.1 yards per target. The only WR with higher yards per target was DeSean Jackson with 11.1

After last season Adam Thielen now has 9.5 yards per target over the last two seasons, which is still in the top 5 for all WR. He slips behind Julio Jones but ties AJ Green and Jordy Nelson and slightly better than Michael Thomas.

That is a good sign I think for Adam Thielen to be a top 12 WR again in 2018 as long as he gets enough opportunity. I think Thielens total targets may go down a bit this season (depending somewhat on if Diggs misses games or not)  but he should still have 100-120 targets over the season or 6.25 to 7.5 targets per game and with that amount of opportunity you are looking at 950 to 1140 yards with 4-6 TD.

You have the possibility of an upgrade now that Cousins is the QB as I do think he is a bit better than Sam Bradford or Case Keenum (who played great for the Vikings last season). The volume that Thielen had last year 142 targets likely not there however.

I good argument can be made for Adam Thielen being more valuable that Stefon Diggs, however Adam Thielen is 28 years old for the 2018 season, he is in the prime of his career while Diggs will be 25 years old this season and still ascending. Seems pretty clear from ADP that fantasy owners value Diggs more than Thielen, but then I think Diggs has been a bit over valued for two seasons now while Thielen has been a complete bargain.

I think I would give pick 1.04 in a rookie draft for Thielen, maybe pick 1.03 as well. Hell I could see trading Guice 1.02 for him. Adam Thielen has been very good. I would still likely try to buy for less than this, but this is pretty much what he is worth right now based on his performance the last two seasons.

eta - Another way to look at it is ZWK has Thielen as WR 16 based on projected career VBD and current age.

 
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Hu-Tang Clan said:
What are the thoughts on the Packers backfield these days? Anyone buying Jones or Williams? Selling?
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No real change from my perspective.

I prefer Jones over Williams but the two are pretty even and I expect some sort of split. Williams could still earn more opportunities due to being better in pass protection but I think Jones has more big play ability and is a better receiver than Williams is.

They could draft another RB who could take over the job but I think the Packers have other needs and may pass on RB until later rounds. 

 
Biabreakable said:
No real change from my perspective.

I prefer Jones over Williams but the two are pretty even and I expect some sort of split. Williams could still earn more opportunities due to being better in pass protection but I think Jones has more big play ability and is a better receiver than Williams is.

They could draft another RB who could take over the job but I think the Packers have other needs and may pass on RB until later rounds. 
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This would be a much clearer situation if Jones wasn't looking at a possible suspension. I thought he showcased much much better than Williams last year but Williams is probably going to have 2-4 games to establish himself as the man, nevermind the fact that if Jones is suspended, he won't get as strong a look in camps and preseason either

 
What do people think about Crowder, he's a guy I like but i have gotten interest from some other owners on him. Finished the year pretty good. Don't think he will ever be a TD guy but it is PPR and I think he could be a solid option for smith now. Is 80 catches possible?

 
gabes1919 said:
This would be a much clearer situation if Jones wasn't looking at a possible suspension. I thought he showcased much much better than Williams last year but Williams is probably going to have 2-4 games to establish himself as the man, nevermind the fact that if Jones is suspended, he won't get as strong a look in camps and preseason either
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Yeah I kind of forgot about that. Is Jones missing games to suspension?

 
Biabreakable said:
Yeah I kind of forgot about that. Is Jones missing games to suspension?
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No news on when there will be a suspension but he pleaded no contest to "operating a vehicle with a controlled substance in his system, allegedly marijuana" so I must assume that the suspension will come. Of course, they can alway appeal this kind of thing and get it kicked down the road so dynasty owners will just it looming over him killing his value until it A. happens or B. he plays in the interim and shows that he is a special talent.

 
Hu-Tang Clan said:
What are the thoughts on the Packers backfield these days? Anyone buying Jones or Williams? Selling?
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I still think Williams is the clear guy to own here, but I'm in the minority. The big question surrounding Williams as a prospect was how he'd fare as a pass catcher since they didn't use him in that capacity at BYU, but he showed well there as a rookie. He was drafted to pass protect and pick up the tough yards. He confirmed those abilities as a rookie. But he played with Hundley behind center so defenses were stacking the box... thus everyone thinks he's a plodder. He could get leapfrogged by a rookie, but I think they use their picks on other needs and he ends up being a bargain this year. Jones might have more agility, but he's not that fast, he goes down much easier on first contact, and he's not as good at pass protecting. I expect him to be a CoP back for his career. A good one, but not a guy who ever gets 200 carries in a season unless he's last man standing (as he was briefly last year). 

 
Biabreakable said:
Adam Thielen was WR 12 in standard scoring last season and WR 8 in PPR scoring. He performed as a WR one last year.

He also put up very good numbers in 2016 although this was more sporadic than what he did last season. He is good enough that when Diggs is out of the lineup Thielen can pick up the slack and do more when needed. 

Adam Thielen is a very efficient WR as measured by yards per target and comparing that to other WR. Going into 2017 Adam Thielen had 10.1 yards per target. The only WR with higher yards per target was DeSean Jackson with 11.1

After last season Adam Thielen now has 9.5 yards per target over the last two seasons, which is still in the top 5 for all WR. He slips behind Julio Jones but ties AJ Green and Jordy Nelson and slightly better than Michael Thomas.

That is a good sign I think for Adam Thielen to be a top 12 WR again in 2018 as long as he gets enough opportunity. I think Thielens total targets may go down a bit this season (depending somewhat on if Diggs misses games or not)  but he should still have 100-120 targets over the season or 6.25 to 7.5 targets per game and with that amount of opportunity you are looking at 950 to 1140 yards with 4-6 TD.

You have the possibility of an upgrade now that Cousins is the QB as I do think he is a bit better than Sam Bradford or Case Keenum (who played great for the Vikings last season). The volume that Thielen had last year 142 targets likely not there however.

I good argument can be made for Adam Thielen being more valuable that Stefon Diggs, however Adam Thielen is 28 years old for the 2018 season, he is in the prime of his career while Diggs will be 25 years old this season and still ascending. Seems pretty clear from ADP that fantasy owners value Diggs more than Thielen, but then I think Diggs has been a bit over valued for two seasons now while Thielen has been a complete bargain.

I think I would give pick 1.04 in a rookie draft for Thielen, maybe pick 1.03 as well. Hell I could see trading Guice 1.02 for him. Adam Thielen has been very good. I would still likely try to buy for less than this, but this is pretty much what he is worth right now based on his performance the last two seasons.

eta - Another way to look at it is ZWK has Thielen as WR 16 based on projected career VBD and current age.
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Does Dalvin Cook returning factor in?

 
Bfrahm3 said:
What do people think about Crowder, he's a guy I like but i have gotten interest from some other owners on him. Finished the year pretty good. Don't think he will ever be a TD guy but it is PPR and I think he could be a solid option for smith now. Is 80 catches possible?
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I like Crowder, especially with Smith since I think his game matches up well with Smith's strengths.  I agree he won't get a lot of TDs, but I do think 80 receptions is very possible and over 1000 yards.  IMO he should be a very good #2 WR in a PPR.  What offers have you been getting?

 
RC94 said:
I like Crowder, especially with Smith since I think his game matches up well with Smith's strengths.  I agree he won't get a lot of TDs, but I do think 80 receptions is very possible and over 1000 yards.  IMO he should be a very good #2 WR in a PPR.  What offers have you been getting?
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How are we seeing things with Doctson play out with Smith?

 
RC94 said:
I like Crowder, especially with Smith since I think his game matches up well with Smith's strengths.  I agree he won't get a lot of TDs, but I do think 80 receptions is very possible and over 1000 yards.  IMO he should be a very good #2 WR in a PPR.  What offers have you been getting?
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He would be WR2 right now in a rebuild I started last year. 1 owner just asking abt him right now and then a different owner out of nowhere this morning sent an offer of Kenyan Drake straight up for him. I like drakes potential but I also targeted crowder hard last year once I started the rebuild as a main piece for my team 

 
Magic_Man said:
How are we seeing things with Doctson play out with Smith?
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IMO that's more about Doctson than Smith.  Doctson had a lot of targets in the 2nd half of last season and IMO he was pretty disappointing.  Smith can be efficient and a decent enough deep passer when he has a player like Hill to throw to, but Doctson isn't really close to that.  I am not a Doctson buyer at all, with Smith or even if they still had Cousins.

 
Bfrahm3 said:
He would be WR2 right now in a rebuild I started last year. 1 owner just asking abt him right now and then a different owner out of nowhere this morning sent an offer of Kenyan Drake straight up for him. I like drakes potential but I also targeted crowder hard last year once I started the rebuild as a main piece for my team 
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Prefer Crowder over Drake in a PPR by a decent amount, especially at this point.  If MIA doesn't sign Anderson and/or draft a good RB, my view of Drake will change, but I would still prefer Crowder.

 
Biabreakable said:
Adam Thielen was WR 12 in standard scoring last season and WR 8 in PPR scoring. He performed as a WR one last year.

He also put up very good numbers in 2016 although this was more sporadic than what he did last season. He is good enough that when Diggs is out of the lineup Thielen can pick up the slack and do more when needed. 

Adam Thielen is a very efficient WR as measured by yards per target and comparing that to other WR. Going into 2017 Adam Thielen had 10.1 yards per target. The only WR with higher yards per target was DeSean Jackson with 11.1

After last season Adam Thielen now has 9.5 yards per target over the last two seasons, which is still in the top 5 for all WR. He slips behind Julio Jones but ties AJ Green and Jordy Nelson and slightly better than Michael Thomas.

That is a good sign I think for Adam Thielen to be a top 12 WR again in 2018 as long as he gets enough opportunity. I think Thielens total targets may go down a bit this season (depending somewhat on if Diggs misses games or not)  but he should still have 100-120 targets over the season or 6.25 to 7.5 targets per game and with that amount of opportunity you are looking at 950 to 1140 yards with 4-6 TD.

You have the possibility of an upgrade now that Cousins is the QB as I do think he is a bit better than Sam Bradford or Case Keenum (who played great for the Vikings last season). The volume that Thielen had last year 142 targets likely not there however.

I good argument can be made for Adam Thielen being more valuable that Stefon Diggs, however Adam Thielen is 28 years old for the 2018 season, he is in the prime of his career while Diggs will be 25 years old this season and still ascending. Seems pretty clear from ADP that fantasy owners value Diggs more than Thielen, but then I think Diggs has been a bit over valued for two seasons now while Thielen has been a complete bargain.

I think I would give pick 1.04 in a rookie draft for Thielen, maybe pick 1.03 as well. Hell I could see trading Guice 1.02 for him. Adam Thielen has been very good. I would still likely try to buy for less than this, but this is pretty much what he is worth right now based on his performance the last two seasons.

eta - Another way to look at it is ZWK has Thielen as WR 16 based on projected career VBD and current age.
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I wouldn't give Thielen up unless I knew who was available at 1.04. There is only 2 prospects I'd value at higher/equal value. 

The time to buy Thielen was last year. Selling him now for a younger piece you value equally is fine but don't be surprised if he puts up even better stats this year. 

 
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Thielen's numbers dropped as Diggs' increased - and Cousins is more willing to look deep than Keenum was (which helps Diggs). Minny also brought in Wright to play the slot, so we could potentially see another dip in Thielen's targets. He's a good player, but I'm not confident that 2017 wasn't his career year.  

 
Bfrahm3 said:
He would be WR2 right now in a rebuild I started last year. 1 owner just asking abt him right now and then a different owner out of nowhere this morning sent an offer of Kenyan Drake straight up for him. I like drakes potential but I also targeted crowder hard last year once I started the rebuild as a main piece for my team 
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I would easily trade 2x Crowders for Drake. Their upsides aren't comparable, IMO. Crowder is what he is; Drake has RB1 potential.  

 
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Bfrahm3 said:
What do people think about Crowder, he's a guy I like but i have gotten interest from some other owners on him. Finished the year pretty good. Don't think he will ever be a TD guy but it is PPR and I think he could be a solid option for smith now. Is 80 catches possible?
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Crowder seems like the type of guy whose upside is a fantasy WR3. He could creep into end-of-season WR2 territory if he plays 16 games and several other top 24 WRs get hurt, but I feel like I'd be ceding points to my opponent more often than not if he was in my WR2 slot. This is the type of player I wouldn't be in a rush to trade, but that I'd gladly trade away when I can find a desperate owner or when something spikes his value.

But to answer the question, 80 catches is possible, but not probable. Although people were betting houses on 100 rec last year. I'd feel safer expecting 70-75 rec from him. Even in 2016 when he scored 7 TDs, he still ranked pretty low in points per game.

Concept Coop said:
Thielen's numbers dropped as Diggs' increased - and Cousins is more willing to look deep than Keenum was (which helps Diggs). Minny also brought in Wright to play the slot, so we could potentially see another dip in Thielen's targets. He's a good player, but I'm not confident that 2017 wasn't his career year.  
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This. I think Cousins > Keenum, but I don't think Cousins > 2017 Keenum. For whatever reason, the Minnesota offense was firing on all cylinders last year. I think it will be a career year for both Thielen and Keenum. Diggs is certainly a better player than Thielen when healthy. As CC said, Thielen's numbers dropped as Diggs worked his way back from injury. But I wouldn't hold it against anyone who questions if Diggs will ever be healthy for a whole season or if he'll even be around next season (UFA after 2018). At age 28, I'd only trade a late 1st for him in PPR. In 0PPR, early 2nd. 

 
FF Ninja said:
I still think Williams is the clear guy to own here, but I'm in the minority. The big question surrounding Williams as a prospect was how he'd fare as a pass catcher since they didn't use him in that capacity at BYU, but he showed well there as a rookie. He was drafted to pass protect and pick up the tough yards. He confirmed those abilities as a rookie. But he played with Hundley behind center so defenses were stacking the box... thus everyone thinks he's a plodder. He could get leapfrogged by a rookie, but I think they use their picks on other needs and he ends up being a bargain this year. Jones might have more agility, but he's not that fast, he goes down much easier on first contact, and he's not as good at pass protecting. I expect him to be a CoP back for his career. A good one, but not a guy who ever gets 200 carries in a season unless he's last man standing (as he was briefly last year). 
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I agree and I am looking to buy him where I can.  What would you say is fair value for him currently, in terms of picks and/or similarly valued players?

 
Thielen is the type of guy that just performs over expectations every year. I expect him to lead the team in targets again this year. With a new set of excuses why he's the Vikings #1 WR again. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I agree and I am looking to buy him where I can.  What would you say is fair value for him currently, in terms of picks and/or similarly valued players?
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He's really difficult to gauge. I mean, he was a mid-to-late 2nd round pick last year and seems to have proven himself and earned the job... but due to the stacked boxes and low agility numbers at the combine (similar to Dalvin Cook's number, though - an often overlooked fact) he's labeled a plodder, so it seems his market value has stayed about the same. I'd certainly be trading an early 2nd for him if I had one and needed immediate RB help. Where I have him, I wouldn't let him go for any 2nd even though he's buried on my depth chart.

He strikes me as safer than late 1st round RB* after showing NFL talent last year (at least to me), but maybe not enough of a talent for the Packers to pay him after his rookie contract. But if you're using the 3-year window approach that many do in dynasty, I think he's easily worth a late 1st. However, if the Aaron Jones truthers turn out to be right and he turns this into a 50/50 RBBC then I'll have to eat crow on that. But I don't think you'd really have to pay a late 1st. From what I've read, a mid-2nd should do the trick. Especially before the draft while people are fearing rookies. 

*After the draft, I fear the RBs available at the end of the 1st will either be talented guys stuck in bad situations or mediocre talents in good situations. All rookies carry a risk of just not being NFL talents, but I think Williams has shown he at least belongs in the NFL with a minimum talent of "replacement level starter"... not to say he can't prove he's better than that in year 2 with an actual NFL QB (Hundley did not appear to be a replacement level starter), but in the meantime he at least poses less risk than a rookie.

 
I agree that Williams looks like a good value this year, especially playing with Rodgers.  The team will want to make sure that they protect Rodgers at all times, which is strong in the favor of Williams.  But the looming suspension of Jones is equally a big issue.  Jones shouldn't get much beneficial use during preseason if he is suspended during the regular season. Except for the last game when they are going to protect the starters. Plus that arrest and potential suspension puts him squarely in the cross hairs for the league and the team going forward. Green Bay just doesn't seem like they want to have problem players around or make them a big part of the teams plans.  

Williams was a mid to late second round pick last year, he showed he belongs and can be a vital starter, he does pass protect very good and picks up the hard yards, yards that will be easier with Rodgers than with Hundley.  I would say very early 2nd round but it will probably take a late 1st round pick to get him.  I like him and his situation.    

 
Why are people willing to so easily write off Williams' poor rushing efficiency as Hundley's fault when Aaron Jones averaged 5.6ypc while playing with Hundley (albeit on only 50 carries)?  Montgomery ran well (4.84ypc) alongside Hundley as well, again on limited carries but with those two combined we're getting a relatively decent sample size where RBs not named Jamaal Williams ran pretty strongly in that same Brett Hundley led offense that people are inferring was impossible to run well in.

 
Spike said:
Does Dalvin Cook returning factor in?
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It could. I haven't done full team projections for any team yet. Usually don't do that until after the draft.

Jerrick McKinnon and Latavius Murray were still targeted a lot. IIRC Cook was getting one more target per game than McKinnon was though, so it could change the outlook of the overall pie slightly I suppose.

 
Concept Coop said:
Thielen's numbers dropped as Diggs' increased - and Cousins is more willing to look deep than Keenum was (which helps Diggs). Minny also brought in Wright to play the slot, so we could potentially see another dip in Thielen's targets. He's a good player, but I'm not confident that 2017 wasn't his career year.  
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Yeah Wright could dip into both Diggs and Thielens numbers. Thielen ran a lot of routes out of the slot last season, the more Wright plays the fewer opportunities for Thielen and Diggs to work out of the slot.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Why are people willing to so easily write off Williams' poor rushing efficiency as Hundley's fault when Aaron Jones averaged 5.6ypc while playing with Hundley (albeit on only 50 carries)?  Montgomery ran well (4.84ypc) alongside Hundley as well, again on limited carries but with those two combined we're getting a relatively decent sample size where RBs not named Jamaal Williams ran pretty strongly in that same Brett Hundley led offense that people are inferring was impossible to run well in.
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Agreed.  Rodgers also seems to prefer Jones - he gushed about Jones last year, with modest praise for Williams.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Why are people willing to so easily write off Williams' poor rushing efficiency as Hundley's fault when Aaron Jones averaged 5.6ypc while playing with Hundley (albeit on only 50 carries)?  Montgomery ran well (4.84ypc) alongside Hundley as well, again on limited carries but with those two combined we're getting a relatively decent sample size where RBs not named Jamaal Williams ran pretty strongly in that same Brett Hundley led offense that people are inferring was impossible to run well in.
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Jones only had 80 carries on the year and only 50 after Rodgers went down, so you can't draw any long term meaningful conclusions--just not statistically meaningful.  

 
az_prof said:
Jones only had 80 carries on the year and only 50 after Rodgers went down, so you can't draw any long term meaningful conclusions--just not statistically meaningful.  
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Jones and Montgomery combined had 75 carries, which is a reasonable amount to make some kind of reading on the situation, especially since Williams was so consistently bad.  He failed to hit 4ypc in 7 of his 8 starts ( :shock: ) while Jones averaged 7.7ypc in his only start with Hundley.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Why are people willing to so easily write off Williams' poor rushing efficiency as Hundley's fault when Aaron Jones averaged 5.6ypc while playing with Hundley (albeit on only 50 carries)?  Montgomery ran well (4.84ypc) alongside Hundley as well, again on limited carries but with those two combined we're getting a relatively decent sample size where RBs not named Jamaal Williams ran pretty strongly in that same Brett Hundley led offense that people are inferring was impossible to run well in.
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Look at it game-by-game. He only had two games with more than 5 carries. A mediocre 13 carries for 41 yards against a tough Minnesota defense and a nice 17 for 131 against New Orleans, although he did have the benefit of running untouched for a 46 yard score. Almost any NFL-level RB scores on that play. Williams was getting bellcow carries every game he played. It would be interesting to see the data on how many men in the box Williams faced vs. Jones. I suspect there is a discrepancy. In his big game against New Orleans, PFF says Jones forced two missed tackles. Williams had seven in his first start and earned 55 of his 67 yards after contact.

 
Milkman said:
Thielen is the type of guy that just performs over expectations every year. I expect him to lead the team in targets again this year. With a new set of excuses why he's the Vikings #1 WR again. 
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If he’s not the 1a, he’s the 1b.  Without looking, I think he’s one of the top 20 or so WRs in the league. I just don’t see room to project more targets for him, and am personally projecting a dip. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Look at it game-by-game. He only had two games with more than 5 carries. A mediocre 13 carries for 41 yards against a tough Minnesota defense and a nice 17 for 131 against New Orleans, although he did have the benefit of running untouched for a 46 yard score. Almost any NFL-level RB scores on that play. Williams was getting bellcow carries every game he played. It would be interesting to see the data on how many men in the box Williams faced vs. Jones. I suspect there is a discrepancy. In his big game against New Orleans, PFF says Jones forced two missed tackles. Williams had seven in his first start and earned 55 of his 67 yards after contact.
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I haven’t done a lot of research on the two guys, all I know is from my personal eye test, Williams looked the part of an Alfred Morris type to me. Not sexy, not impressive, but taking what was given. Jones on the other hand, looked hungry, like a guy who realized he was given a chance he would never have gotten otherwise. He impressed me when he played but his sample size is smaller and he had Rodgers. That makes it hard to evaluate him. Rodgers seems to like him so I won’t write him off just because of the suspension risk but I personally want to hedge and have them both because Williams has an excellent chance

 
Concept Coop said:
If he’s not the 1a, he’s the 1b.  Without looking, I think he’s one of the top 20 or so WRs in the league. I just don’t see room to project more targets for him, and am personally projecting a dip. 
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He'll lead the team in targets again and he has a better QB. I see at least the possibility of a bigger season. Could easily have 10 TDs this year or 4. 

 
gabes1919 said:
I haven’t done a lot of research on the two guys, all I know is from my personal eye test, Williams looked the part of an Alfred Morris type to me. Not sexy, not impressive, but taking what was given. Jones on the other hand, looked hungry, like a guy who realized he was given a chance he would never have gotten otherwise. He impressed me when he played but his sample size is smaller and he had Rodgers. That makes it hard to evaluate him. Rodgers seems to like him so I won’t write him off just because of the suspension risk but I personally want to hedge and have them both because Williams has an excellent chance
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What makes you say that? I saw the opposite. Williams looks hungry to me. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense each week and hitting the hole hard, breaking tackles. Jones appeared to just take what was available and go down on first contact. But to be fair, Jones didn't get as many games to showcase his skills. 

Anyway, watch some of Williams and tell me he doesn't look hungry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QWYU4ZTleU
-most notably 1:18 and 2:53

Then you've got Jones. Easy tackle #1. Easy tackle #2. The guy just doesn't handle contact as well as Williams, which is fine if he's elusive. I just haven't seen him being particularly elusive despite his nice 3-cone and shuttle numbers at the combine. 

 
Milkman said:
Thielen is the type of guy that just performs over expectations every year. I expect him to lead the team in targets again this year. With a new set of excuses why he's the Vikings #1 WR again. 
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Agree.  Also, MIN was tied with JAX for 21st in the NFL with 527 passes attempted last year.  If they attempt 30 more passes that only makes them around 15th in the NFL, so I think there could be more targets for Thielen and Diggs next year.  I can see some improvement for both MIN WRs, provided everyone stays healthy.

 
Milkman said:
He'll lead the team in targets again and he has a better QB. I see at least the possibility of a bigger season. Could easily have 10 TDs this year or 4. 
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RC94 said:
Agree.  Also, MIN was tied with JAX for 21st in the NFL with 527 passes attempted last year.  If they attempt 30 more passes that only makes them around 15th in the NFL, so I think there could be more targets for Thielen and Diggs next year.  I can see some improvement for both MIN WRs, provided everyone stays healthy.
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Fair points. I also see Cousins as a likely upgrade. My counter argument:

Diggs is likely to see more targets. Thielen's targets dipped significantly as Diggs healed up. Over the last 5 or so games they played, Diggs was the top option. Even if you want to project it closer to 50/50, or even 55/45 in favor of your guy, it's not going to be as lopsided as it was when Diggs was hurt. 

The WR3 is likely to see a lot more targets. The 3rd most targeted WR on the Vikings last season was Treadwell with 35(!!). Kendall Wright will be lining up in the slot, which Cousins has targeted at a high rate throughout his career.

Moving back outside will reduce target volume for Thielen. The last two season, the starting slot receiver led the team in targets. It was Diggs in 16 and Thielen in 17. 

Dalvin Cook will see more targets than Murray/McKinnon did.  

Thielen was 8th in targets last season, and I just don't see a repeat in the cards.  I'll be projecting something closer to 80/1,120/6 for Thielen, assuming health. 

 
What do people make of Martavis Bryant?  He showed plenty of promise when on the field, seems to have rededicated his life towards football and played decently last year even with his gripes about the team playing JuJu more.  Seems to be past that, probably not a Steeler for anything after this year and showed #1 ability in the past.  What's his value?  I own him in a couple leagues and someone asked about him, didn't know what to say other than I'm not trading him right now.  

 
Zyphros said:
What do people make of Martavis Bryant?  He showed plenty of promise when on the field, seems to have rededicated his life towards football and played decently last year even with his gripes about the team playing JuJu more.  Seems to be past that, probably not a Steeler for anything after this year and showed #1 ability in the past.  What's his value?  I own him in a couple leagues and someone asked about him, didn't know what to say other than I'm not trading him right now.  
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I'm in the same boat...ie. "hold".  I have no clue what to make of him vs. JuJu, and I own both of them on the same, Keep 12, "dynasty" team.

I'm of the opinion that Bryant definitely makes my 12 keeper list (but in the 10-12th player kept range due to the rest of my team's make up), and I'd rather have him and JuJu both on my roster to see how that shakes out, than have him blow up on someone else's rosters.

that said, if someone offers me a 1.05 pick this year (for some odd reason), I'd jump at it. Below that, I'm not so sure. Ok, I'd probably take a 1.08 or better depending on where some of the top rookie WRs land in a great spot.

 
joey said:
I'm in the same boat...ie. "hold".  I have no clue what to make of him vs. JuJu, and I own both of them on the same, Keep 12, "dynasty" team.

I'm of the opinion that Bryant definitely makes my 12 keeper list (but in the 10-12th player kept range due to the rest of my team's make up), and I'd rather have him and JuJu both on my roster to see how that shakes out, than have him blow up on someone else's rosters.

that said, if someone offers me a 1.05 pick this year (for some odd reason), I'd jump at it. Below that, I'm not so sure. Ok, I'd probably take a 1.08 or better depending on where some of the top rookie WRs land in a great spot.
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Even if someone offered me 1.08 I think I'd have a hard time accepting that unless I saw someone I really liked on the board, at a position of need.  I've held him for a while waiting for his free agency and with that coming up, I think a lot of people look for those kind of guys so he's a hard guy to peg.  At least I look for those kind of guys, past elite production, likely to move on to a new team, in a ok, not great situation right now so people can essentially "buy low" on the guy before he gets WR1 money somewhere.  Not saying it's likely it happens like that but it is possible.  Either way he seems like the kind of guy I would normally covet.  

 
FF Ninja said:
What makes you say that? I saw the opposite. Williams looks hungry to me. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense each week and hitting the hole hard, breaking tackles. Jones appeared to just take what was available and go down on first contact. But to be fair, Jones didn't get as many games to showcase his skills. 

Anyway, watch some of Williams and tell me he doesn't look hungry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QWYU4ZTleU
-most notably 1:18 and 2:53

Then you've got Jones. Easy tackle #1. Easy tackle #2. The guy just doesn't handle contact as well as Williams, which is fine if he's elusive. I just haven't seen him being particularly elusive despite his nice 3-cone and shuttle numbers at the combine. 
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Yeah he runs hard. He’s very far below average athletically. I mean what else do you expect? I don’t think any of them are very good but I guess if he’s cheap enough there’s some value.

 
voiceofunreason said:
Yeah he runs hard. He’s very far below average athletically. I mean what else do you expect? I don’t think any of them are very good but I guess if he’s cheap enough there’s some value.
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Again, his burst and agility scores are pretty much the same as Dalvin Cook. But as far as expectations - I don't think 2013-2014 Eddie Lacy numbers are out of the question when discussing upside. It would be more realistic to expect similar production per touch with ~20% fewer touches*, though, if you think Jones will get more touches than James Starks did in 2013-2014 (6 carries/game and 1.5 targets/game). Lacy had low 40, burst, and agility scores but still fit their system well when he wasn't eating that china food. 

*Lacy got 17 carries, 3 targets per game in those 2 years while JW got almost 18 & 4 in the last 8 games, but largely without a healthy Jones (5g, 14c, 3t).

Combine performance does have a positive correlation with NFL success for RBs, so it shouldn't be ignored, but it's not as strong as people would like to believe. There have been plenty of work out wonders that flamed out and plenty of underwhelming combine performers that have excelled. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Again, his burst and agility scores are pretty much the same as Dalvin Cook. But as far as expectations - I don't think 2013-2014 Eddie Lacy numbers are out of the question when discussing upside. It would be more realistic to expect similar production per touch with ~20% fewer touches*, though, if you think Jones will get more touches than James Starks did in 2013-2014 (6 carries/game and 1.5 targets/game). Lacy had low 40, burst, and agility scores but still fit their system well when he wasn't eating that china food. 

*Lacy got 17 carries, 3 targets per game in those 2 years while JW got almost 18 & 4 in the last 8 games, but largely without a healthy Jones (5g, 14c, 3t).

Combine performance does have a positive correlation with NFL success for RBs, so it shouldn't be ignored, but it's not as strong as people would like to believe. There have been plenty of work out wonders that flamed out and plenty of underwhelming combine performers that have excelled. 
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That's not a good thing and Cook is much faster. 

 
What do people think about trading away next year firsts for this year firsts given that you're pretty sure next year's pick will be a later one?

For example, I was offered the 1.10 this year for my 2019 first. My team was the #2 seed this year and the league is transitioning from non-PPR to PPR, which my team is actually built more for.

What's the harm?

 
Concept Coop said:
That's not a good thing and Cook is much faster. 
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That was the point. People give Cook a pass on his poor combine while writing off JW. I'd argue burst and agility are much more important than 40 time, though, so I don't think Cook's 4.49 vs. JW's 4.59 is actually a big deal.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
What do people think about trading away next year firsts for this year firsts given that you're pretty sure next year's pick will be a later one?

For example, I was offered the 1.10 this year for my 2019 first. My team was the #2 seed this year and the league is transitioning from non-PPR to PPR, which my team is actually built more for.

What's the harm?
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Seems like a great idea to me.   :ph34r:

 
Andy Dufresne said:
What do people think about trading away next year firsts for this year firsts given that you're pretty sure next year's pick will be a later one?

For example, I was offered the 1.10 this year for my 2019 first. My team was the #2 seed this year and the league is transitioning from non-PPR to PPR, which my team is actually built more for.

What's the harm?
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The harm is just in the risk that your team gets injured and you end up with a top 5 pick next year and have massive regret about trading that pick away. But if you need a RB then this is not a bad year to trade for the 1.10. I wouldn't do it to draft any other position, though.

On the other hand, if your team is stacked and you're going to have a hard time making cuts, it's not a bad gamble to trade away the 1.10 this year for someone else's 1st. The odds of it being a worse pick next year are pretty low.

ETA: I would wait until 1.10 was actually on the clock, though, so you make sure you get who you want.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
What do people think about trading away next year firsts for this year firsts given that you're pretty sure next year's pick will be a later one?

For example, I was offered the 1.10 this year for my 2019 first. My team was the #2 seed this year and the league is transitioning from non-PPR to PPR, which my team is actually built more for.

What's the harm?
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I think it's roster dependent. I generally prefer trading my late current year picks for future picks. That said, for some of my rosters, I'll do what you describe here, especially if I'm targeting a guy I value higher than the pick I have to use to get him.  

For this class specifically, while it's really deep, I think that depth presents itself in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, more so than the late 1st. Things will obviously change next week, but I'm personally not in love with the value in the late 1st this year. 

 
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