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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (18 Viewers)

The Spurs own an eight-game winning streak over Phoenix dating back to Halloween night of 2014. San Antonio beat the Suns 107-92 in Phoenix on Dec. 15, as five Spurs players scored in double figures.

 
That's how Seinfeld succeeded. The executive who gave it the green light had never done sitcoms before. It's almost as he had no idea what he was doing. You might be onto something.

Rice professor Erik Dane finds that the more expertise and experience people gain, the more entrenched they become in a particular way of viewing the world. He points to studies showing that expert bridge players struggled more than novices to adapt when the rules were changed, and that expert accountants were worse than novices at applying a new tax law. As we gain knowledge about a domain, we become prisoners of our prototypes.

Grant, Adam. Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World (Kindle Locations 700-703). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
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Big ####### surprise, Clippers up 8 after the first quarter. Could be money in my pocket but noooo.

Thanks useless beat writer.

 
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ChainsawU said:
That's how Seinfeld succeeded. The executive who gave it the green light had never done sitcoms before. It's almost as he had no idea what he was doing. You might be onto something.
Click to expand...
I think the opposite is true and I think if you meet people with relative world experience, they are less "entrenched" than guy who has lived in his home town since day 1.  I have been more places than the 5 other guys at the table and their families combined, but I have an open mind and understand the nuances of life.  That said I'm pretty extreme in my beliefs but they are based on good data and experience, so if that's what Rice guy is saying...then that is ok.  I've been around enough to know more than most, so if I tell you global warming is a real thing, you should listen.  Entrenched guy doesn't listen, because his worldwiew is a 8X10 picture of his family where the mullet is king. 

 
Doctor Detroit said:
I think the opposite is true and I think if you meet people with relative world experience, they are less "entrenched" than guy who has lived in his home town since day 1.  I have been more places than the 5 other guys at the table and their families combined, but I have an open mind and understand the nuances of life.  That said I'm pretty extreme in my beliefs but they are based on good data and experience, so if that's what Rice guy is saying...then that is ok.  I've been around enough to know more than most, so if I tell you global warming is a real thing, you should listen.  Entrenched guy doesn't listen, because his worldwiew is a 8X10 picture of his family where the mullet is king. 
Click to expand...
For sure dude. I read about that today, too. They mentioned a study on whether creativity might be influenced by time spent abroad. They focused on the fashion industry and tracked the creativity of hundreds of designers over the course of twenty-one seasons, studying the designers' biographies and tracking the international experiences of industry icons like Armani, Donna Karan, Lagerfeld, Versace, and Vera Wang.

The most creative fashion collections came from houses where designers had the greatest experience abroad - but there were three twists: Time living abroad didn’t matter. It was time working abroad that predicted success, and the most original collections came from people who had worked in two or three different countries.

Also, the more the foreign culture differed from that of their native land the more that experience contributed to the designers' creativity. An American gained little from working in Canada, compared to someone working in Korea or Japan.

Then finally, the third and most important factor was the amount of time spent working abroad. A short trip didn't do any good because designers were not there long enough to internalize new ideas from the foreign culture and incorporate them into their old perspectives. And the highest amount of success was actually measured when designers had spent ≥ 35 years working abroad.

 
swirvenirvin said:
The rest of eastman stuff

4 Unit Play. #244 Take OVER 65 in Northwestern Wildcats vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (Pin Stripe Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28, 2 pm ESPN) The Wildcats have a lot to play for in this game after getting embarrassed by Tennessee last year in Florida. Pittsburgh has gone over the posted total in 4 straight bowl games. Pittsburgh has also gone over the posted total in 22 of their last 31 games (1 push).

4 Unit Play. #245 Take West Virginia Mountaineers +3 over Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Russell Athletic Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28, 5:30 pm ESPN) I just believe West Virginia has been undervalued all season long by the oddsmakers and they will take down Miami in Orlando tonight. Miami struggled to beat top teams in the ACC, losing four straight games at one point before beating up on bad teams to close out the regular season. West Virginia has the much better defense, and I just believe this senior-laden Hurricane team is ready to move on from the season and this mediocre bowl game. Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral-site games. 60% of the money is on the underdog and for good reason as West Virginia wins their second straight bowl game.

4 Unit Play. #248 Take UNDER 54 in Indiana Hoosiers vs. Utah Utes (Foster Farms Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28, 8:30 pm FOX)The Hoosiers have a new coach for this game and they will struggle to move the football against this stout Utah defense. Indiana now has a defensive minded coach and expect him to play it close to the best. Indiana did not light up the scoreboard toward the end of the year and they will struggle to get over 24 points in this game.

8 Unit Play. #250 Take Texas A&M Aggies -2 over Kansas State Wildcats (Texas Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28 9 pm ESPN) BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. The Aggies are starting to get healthy with Myles Garrett and Trevor Knight expected to suit up for this game. They just have too many weapons on offense for Kansas State to keep pace with. Everybody loves Bill Snyder, but the game has passed him by as the Wildcats still feature a run-heavy offense that can be contained by a disciplined defense. Kansas State has not been very competitive in their last two bowl games (both losses), and they will complete the trifecta this Wednesday. We went against them two years ago with our Bowl Game of the Year and UCLA dominated that game even though the final score did not indicate that (UCLA won and covered the spread). Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. A&M once again did not finish out the season well but the time off has done them good and they should be ready to finish out the season on a high note. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral-site games. A&M is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral-site games. Both trends hold true on Wednesday and we lay the small change with the more athletic team.
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This is amazing.  Hope A&M goes the same way the previous dozen or whatever have.

 
facook said:
This is amazing.  Hope A&M goes the same way the previous dozen or whatever have.
Click to expand...
The first two lost.  Are you being sarcastic?  :oldunsure:

I have some bank on the Aggies tonight though, who by the way, I ####### hate with my heart and soul.  But still....

 
Doctor Detroit said:
The first two lost.  Are you being sarcastic?  :oldunsure:

I have some bank on the Aggies tonight though, who by the way, I ####### hate with my heart and soul.  But still....
Click to expand...
yeah we are i posted a while back but we are fading docsports and eastman.

We've had their service for free for years because they have yet to produce a proift.  I mentioned that they press during bowl season to try to make plays on alomst all the games and are more than usual terrible during bowl season beacuse of it

 
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Doctor Detroit said:
The first two lost.  Are you being sarcastic?  :oldunsure:

I have some bank on the Aggies tonight though, who by the way, I ####### hate with my heart and soul.  But still....
Click to expand...
No sorry, Swirve has been fading this guy since the bowls started.  The Indy/Utah under is almost dead as well (which I was on early, so I'm not better).  I think Swirve said earlier fading Eastman is 7 and 8-0 or something since bowls started.

 
facook said:
No sorry, Swirve has been fading this guy since the bowls started.  The Indy/Utah under is almost dead as well (which I was on early, so I'm not better).  I think Swirve said earlier fading Eastman is 7 and 8-0 or something since bowls started.
Click to expand...
no the contrarian bowl system from david solar is 7 or 8-0

not sure what fading eastman and docsports are but its been good so far.

 
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facook said:
Is that the ESPN one Tiger posted?
Click to expand...
yes this one

Betting against the public

At Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA and Sportsbook.com. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use "consensus" numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.

Sportsbooks will adjust their point spreads based on public money only in games with extreme levels of one-sided betting, but bowl season represents a unique opportunity for bettors. With higher-quality matchups and more attention paid to every game, sportsbooks experience much larger handles -- particularly from casual bettors desperate for action. This influx of public money creates value for bettors looking to fade the public.

For more information on this topic I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant at the offshore sportsbook, Bookmaker.eu. "Obviously the major bowls generate a much bigger handle, but all of them receive pretty good action," Cooley said. "The major bowls will do more in handle than a game during the World Series, outside of Game 7."

With more money at stake, sportsbooks become increasingly willing to shade their lines to account for public money. "The public still has little impact on the odds, but maybe a bit more than normal because the sharps aren't involved in every bowl," Cooley said. Typically sharp bettors are more selective and like to pick their spots. That's much easier during the regular season when there are 50-plus games being played every Saturday.

Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Leading up to kickoff, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, when there's more public money and less sharp money entering the marketplace, oddsmakers are forced to change their standard procedure.

My research found the average bowl game receives more than three times as many bets than an average regular-season college football game. When I focused exclusively on larger games (specifically BCS bowls and College Football Playoff games) the number of bets are more than five times greater than the average regular-season game. Since the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, it shouldn't be surprising to see that betting against the public yields impressive returns during bowl season.

Since 2005, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 4,336-4,411 ATS (49.6 percent) during the regular season and 195-174 ATS (52.8 percent) during bowl season. When we look at games with more extreme splits between the betting public, those results improve substantially.

NCAAF Bowl Season - Betting Against

PUBLIC BETTINGREGULAR SEASON ATSBOWL SEASON ATS

Less than 50 percent of spread bets4,336-4,411 (49.6 percent)195-174 (52.8 percent)

Less than 40 percent of spread bets2,961-3,062 (49.2 percent)120-84 (58.8 percent)

Less than 33 percent of spread bets2,133-2,208 (49.1 percent)65-34 (65.7 percent)

Also worth noting is the performance of underdogs during bowl season. These are typically evenly matched teams, which leads to competitive games. By simply taking the points, bettors gain a slight edge. Since 2005, underdogs have gone 192-184 ATS (51.1 percent) in bowl games. For comparison, 'dogs have gone 4,452-4,455 (50 percent) in regular-season games over that time.

As most bettors already know, "3" and "7" are the most common margins of victory in college football and grabbing the best of any key number is vital to long-term sports betting success. It's always crucial to shop for the best line before placing a wager, but that's particularly true around key numbers.

During bowl season, underdogs of at least 3 points have gone 150-140 ATS (51.7 percent) but underdogs of at least 3.5 points have gone 128-115 ATS (52.7 percent). Similarly, underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 68-63 ATS (51.9 percent) and underdogs of at least 7.5 points have gone 56-47 ATS (54.4 percent).

Based on the current levels of public betting, 11 underdogs are offering contrarian value during bowl season. For what it's worth, bettors should wait until closer to kickoff to place their wagers, since one-sided public betting on their opponent will likely allow bettors to get a better number.

Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday.

1. Dec. 17, Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTSA (+7) receiving 31 percent of bets against New Mexico.

2. Dec. 23, Popeye's Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+4) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Old Dominion.

3. Dec. 23, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (+3.5) receiving 27 percent of spread bets against Louisiana Tech.

4. Dec. 26, St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami Ohio (+12) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Mississippi State.

5. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.

6. Dec. 27, National Funding Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (+6.5) receiving 22 percent of spread bets against Washington State.

7. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against Pittsburgh.

8. Dec. 30, Franklin American Mortgage City Bowl: Nebraska (+3) receiving 32 percent of spread bets against Tennessee.

9. Dec. 31, College Football Playoff semifinal: Washington (+15.5) receiving 33 percent of spread bets against Alabama.

10. Jan. 2, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Western Michigan (+7.5) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Wisconsin.

11. Jan. 2, Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn (+4) receiving 26 percent of spread bets against Oklahoma.

Unranked teams vs. ranked opponents

For years, I have argued that ranking systems are flawed across all major college sports. Fans and media alike often tout the talent of a team based on their standings in the national rankings, but what do these rankings really tell us?

The Associated Press Top 25 rankings are formulated in a survey of 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the country. Most fans believe, based on the knowledge and insight of these media members, the ranking system is accurate. I disagree. Most of these writers are focused on a specific team or conference, and can't possibly watch every other team across the nation.

As an example, LSU is ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, yet the Tigers would likely be favored against half the teams listed above them. In fact, several oddsmakers I spoke with argued that LSU would be favored against No. 5 Penn State. Clearly this is a flawed metric, yet casual bettors place an inordinate amount of value on these rankings.

Fans often overrate teams when they see any type of ranking next to a school, and it's clear that these rankings are imperfect because we occasionally see unranked schools listed as road favorites against ranked opponents. Being a successful contrarian bettor means always questioning mainstream narratives and capitalizing on these types of widely accepted opinions. When a ranked team plays against an unranked opponent, oddsmakers understand casual bettors will act on instinct and take the ranked team almost every time. Since they anticipate this one-sided action, sportsbooks will shade their opening number to force casual bettors to take a bad number when backing the ranked team. This has historically created value for opportunistic bettors.

During the 2016 season, unranked schools went 111-92 ATS (54.7 percent) against unranked opponents. It's interesting to note there were nine instances in which the unranked team actually closed as the favorite, but the more compelling takeaway is the performance of unranked teams during bowl season.

Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent).

AP Top 25 Poll Is Overvalued

CRITERIAATS RECORDUNITS WONROI

Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team43-32 (57.3 percent)+8.60+11.5 percent

Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team, Against Public40-28 (58.8 percent)+9.64+14.2 percent

Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records

There are currently seven unranked teams facing off against a ranked opponent but, surprisingly, only three of them are being ignored by the majority of public bettors.

1. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against No. 23 Pittsburgh.

2. Dec. 28, Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami Florida (+3) receiving 41 percent of spread bets against No. 16 West Virginia.

3. Dec. 30, Hyundai Sun Bowl: North Carolina (+3.5) receiving 35 percent of spread bets against No. 18 Stanford.

Buy low on bad ATS teams

Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" may be surprised to learn sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss and, conversely, the most favorable time to bet against a team is after a victory.

For bettors, the term "loss" may seem ambiguous since our strategies typically focus on underdogs, who are often able to lose the game while still covering the spread. But what happens when the same teams repeatedly burn bettors? What happens when these teams fail to cover the spread, and bankrolls suffer? When bettors start to lose money faster than Antoine Walker as the casino, panic sets in and bettors begin to overreact. They vow to never let those same teams burn them again. That's when opportunistic contrarians can capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.

My research found that bettors have historically overreacted to teams that have performed poorly against the spread (ATS). Since casual bettors are unwilling to take teams that have consistently failed to cover the spread, oddsmakers shade their lines to account for one-sided public betting. Once again, by capitalizing on public perception we're able to extract contrarian value.

Teams with an ATS winning percentage of less than 50 percent have gone 120-96 ATS (55.6 percent) during bowl season. This figure was somewhat misleading since games featuring two teams with losing ATS records would always result in a 1-1 ATS record. By eliminating all duplicates, the record improves to 88-64 ATS (57.9 percent).

When we look at teams that have performed horribly against the spread, our records improve considerably. Since 2005, teams with an ATS win rate of 33 percent or less have gone 30-13 ATS (69.8 percent) during bowl season. That includes a 19-6 ATS (76 percent) record when they're receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.

Bowl Teams With Poor ATS Winning Percentage

CRITERIAATS RECORDUNITS WONROI

ATS Record <50 percent88-64 (57.9 percent)+20.05+13.2 percent

ATS Record <33 percent30-13 (69.8 percent)+16.26+37.8 percent

ATS Record <33 percent, Receiving <50 percent of spread bets19-6 (76.0 percent)+12.65+50.6 percent

Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records

Duplicates are hidden since they will always result in 1-1 ATS record

There are seven teams who finished the 2016 regular season with an ATS winning percentage of 33 percent or lower: Baylor (3-9), Boise State (3-9), Maryland (4-8), South Alabama (3-8), Southern Mississippi (3-8), TCU (3-9) and Texas A&M (4-8). Surprisingly, four of these teams are actually receiving the majority of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. That means there are only three "buy-low" candidates that are also providing bettors with contrarian value.

1. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.

2. Dec. 30, Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama (+13) receiving 47 percent of spread bets against Air Force.

3. Dec. 30, AutoZone Liberty Bowl: TCU (+1) receiving 24 percent of spread bets against Georgia.

At the time of publication, there are 15 teams offering value during bowl season with Northwestern (+5.5) and Baylor (+8.5) the only teams fitting multiple contrarian systems. That said, it's important to realize that these lines and betting trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page over the upcoming weeks for latest information.

 
swirvenirvin said:
yes this one

Betting against the public

At Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA and Sportsbook.com. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use "consensus" numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.

Sportsbooks will adjust their point spreads based on public money only in games with extreme levels of one-sided betting, but bowl season represents a unique opportunity for bettors. With higher-quality matchups and more attention paid to every game, sportsbooks experience much larger handles -- particularly from casual bettors desperate for action. This influx of public money creates value for bettors looking to fade the public.

For more information on this topic I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant at the offshore sportsbook, Bookmaker.eu. "Obviously the major bowls generate a much bigger handle, but all of them receive pretty good action," Cooley said. "The major bowls will do more in handle than a game during the World Series, outside of Game 7."

With more money at stake, sportsbooks become increasingly willing to shade their lines to account for public money. "The public still has little impact on the odds, but maybe a bit more than normal because the sharps aren't involved in every bowl," Cooley said. Typically sharp bettors are more selective and like to pick their spots. That's much easier during the regular season when there are 50-plus games being played every Saturday.

Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Leading up to kickoff, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, when there's more public money and less sharp money entering the marketplace, oddsmakers are forced to change their standard procedure.

My research found the average bowl game receives more than three times as many bets than an average regular-season college football game. When I focused exclusively on larger games (specifically BCS bowls and College Football Playoff games) the number of bets are more than five times greater than the average regular-season game. Since the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, it shouldn't be surprising to see that betting against the public yields impressive returns during bowl season.

Since 2005, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 4,336-4,411 ATS (49.6 percent) during the regular season and 195-174 ATS (52.8 percent) during bowl season. When we look at games with more extreme splits between the betting public, those results improve substantially.

NCAAF Bowl Season - Betting Against

PUBLIC BETTINGREGULAR SEASON ATSBOWL SEASON ATS

Less than 50 percent of spread bets4,336-4,411 (49.6 percent)195-174 (52.8 percent)

Less than 40 percent of spread bets2,961-3,062 (49.2 percent)120-84 (58.8 percent)

Less than 33 percent of spread bets2,133-2,208 (49.1 percent)65-34 (65.7 percent)

Also worth noting is the performance of underdogs during bowl season. These are typically evenly matched teams, which leads to competitive games. By simply taking the points, bettors gain a slight edge. Since 2005, underdogs have gone 192-184 ATS (51.1 percent) in bowl games. For comparison, 'dogs have gone 4,452-4,455 (50 percent) in regular-season games over that time.

As most bettors already know, "3" and "7" are the most common margins of victory in college football and grabbing the best of any key number is vital to long-term sports betting success. It's always crucial to shop for the best line before placing a wager, but that's particularly true around key numbers.

During bowl season, underdogs of at least 3 points have gone 150-140 ATS (51.7 percent) but underdogs of at least 3.5 points have gone 128-115 ATS (52.7 percent). Similarly, underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 68-63 ATS (51.9 percent) and underdogs of at least 7.5 points have gone 56-47 ATS (54.4 percent).

Based on the current levels of public betting, 11 underdogs are offering contrarian value during bowl season. For what it's worth, bettors should wait until closer to kickoff to place their wagers, since one-sided public betting on their opponent will likely allow bettors to get a better number.

Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday.

1. Dec. 17, Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTSA (+7) receiving 31 percent of bets against New Mexico.

2. Dec. 23, Popeye's Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+4) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Old Dominion.

3. Dec. 23, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (+3.5) receiving 27 percent of spread bets against Louisiana Tech.

4. Dec. 26, St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami Ohio (+12) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Mississippi State.

5. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.

6. Dec. 27, National Funding Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (+6.5) receiving 22 percent of spread bets against Washington State.

7. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against Pittsburgh.

8. Dec. 30, Franklin American Mortgage City Bowl: Nebraska (+3) receiving 32 percent of spread bets against Tennessee.

9. Dec. 31, College Football Playoff semifinal: Washington (+15.5) receiving 33 percent of spread bets against Alabama.

10. Jan. 2, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Western Michigan (+7.5) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Wisconsin.

11. Jan. 2, Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn (+4) receiving 26 percent of spread bets against Oklahoma.

Unranked teams vs. ranked opponents

For years, I have argued that ranking systems are flawed across all major college sports. Fans and media alike often tout the talent of a team based on their standings in the national rankings, but what do these rankings really tell us?

The Associated Press Top 25 rankings are formulated in a survey of 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the country. Most fans believe, based on the knowledge and insight of these media members, the ranking system is accurate. I disagree. Most of these writers are focused on a specific team or conference, and can't possibly watch every other team across the nation.

As an example, LSU is ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, yet the Tigers would likely be favored against half the teams listed above them. In fact, several oddsmakers I spoke with argued that LSU would be favored against No. 5 Penn State. Clearly this is a flawed metric, yet casual bettors place an inordinate amount of value on these rankings.

Fans often overrate teams when they see any type of ranking next to a school, and it's clear that these rankings are imperfect because we occasionally see unranked schools listed as road favorites against ranked opponents. Being a successful contrarian bettor means always questioning mainstream narratives and capitalizing on these types of widely accepted opinions. When a ranked team plays against an unranked opponent, oddsmakers understand casual bettors will act on instinct and take the ranked team almost every time. Since they anticipate this one-sided action, sportsbooks will shade their opening number to force casual bettors to take a bad number when backing the ranked team. This has historically created value for opportunistic bettors.

During the 2016 season, unranked schools went 111-92 ATS (54.7 percent) against unranked opponents. It's interesting to note there were nine instances in which the unranked team actually closed as the favorite, but the more compelling takeaway is the performance of unranked teams during bowl season.

Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent).

AP Top 25 Poll Is Overvalued

CRITERIAATS RECORDUNITS WONROI

Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team43-32 (57.3 percent)+8.60+11.5 percent

Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team, Against Public40-28 (58.8 percent)+9.64+14.2 percent

Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records

There are currently seven unranked teams facing off against a ranked opponent but, surprisingly, only three of them are being ignored by the majority of public bettors.

1. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against No. 23 Pittsburgh.

2. Dec. 28, Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami Florida (+3) receiving 41 percent of spread bets against No. 16 West Virginia.

3. Dec. 30, Hyundai Sun Bowl: North Carolina (+3.5) receiving 35 percent of spread bets against No. 18 Stanford.

Buy low on bad ATS teams

Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" may be surprised to learn sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss and, conversely, the most favorable time to bet against a team is after a victory.

For bettors, the term "loss" may seem ambiguous since our strategies typically focus on underdogs, who are often able to lose the game while still covering the spread. But what happens when the same teams repeatedly burn bettors? What happens when these teams fail to cover the spread, and bankrolls suffer? When bettors start to lose money faster than Antoine Walker as the casino, panic sets in and bettors begin to overreact. They vow to never let those same teams burn them again. That's when opportunistic contrarians can capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.

My research found that bettors have historically overreacted to teams that have performed poorly against the spread (ATS). Since casual bettors are unwilling to take teams that have consistently failed to cover the spread, oddsmakers shade their lines to account for one-sided public betting. Once again, by capitalizing on public perception we're able to extract contrarian value.

Teams with an ATS winning percentage of less than 50 percent have gone 120-96 ATS (55.6 percent) during bowl season. This figure was somewhat misleading since games featuring two teams with losing ATS records would always result in a 1-1 ATS record. By eliminating all duplicates, the record improves to 88-64 ATS (57.9 percent).

When we look at teams that have performed horribly against the spread, our records improve considerably. Since 2005, teams with an ATS win rate of 33 percent or less have gone 30-13 ATS (69.8 percent) during bowl season. That includes a 19-6 ATS (76 percent) record when they're receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.

Bowl Teams With Poor ATS Winning Percentage

CRITERIAATS RECORDUNITS WONROI

ATS Record <50 percent88-64 (57.9 percent)+20.05+13.2 percent

ATS Record <33 percent30-13 (69.8 percent)+16.26+37.8 percent

ATS Record <33 percent, Receiving <50 percent of spread bets19-6 (76.0 percent)+12.65+50.6 percent

Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records

Duplicates are hidden since they will always result in 1-1 ATS record

There are seven teams who finished the 2016 regular season with an ATS winning percentage of 33 percent or lower: Baylor (3-9), Boise State (3-9), Maryland (4-8), South Alabama (3-8), Southern Mississippi (3-8), TCU (3-9) and Texas A&M (4-8). Surprisingly, four of these teams are actually receiving the majority of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. That means there are only three "buy-low" candidates that are also providing bettors with contrarian value.

1. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.

2. Dec. 30, Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama (+13) receiving 47 percent of spread bets against Air Force.

3. Dec. 30, AutoZone Liberty Bowl: TCU (+1) receiving 24 percent of spread bets against Georgia.

At the time of publication, there are 15 teams offering value during bowl season with Northwestern (+5.5) and Baylor (+8.5) the only teams fitting multiple contrarian systems. That said, it's important to realize that these lines and betting trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page over the upcoming weeks for latest information.
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Yep this has been money.  Wish I had followed it religiously.  I am starting earlier today at 2:00 PST.

 
I miss the Bender, SLBD, RN days but I share a short story with you.

I rescued a dog in October and she's really cool.  22 pounds, thinks she's 90 pounds and rules the neighborhood already.  She loves barking at squirrels but her barking is far from excessive.  The neighbors behind me are tools, they put a trampoline right on our shared fence and have three young kids bouncing on it all day.  I throw the ball back, always say hi, etc.  Kids will be loud even if it annoys me.

So this ####### ##### tells my woman that the new dog is barking too much and we should "take care of it."  She's still mad because my trees that shade her house in the summer "might fall on" her house and I should trim them.  Well in this state you trim the part of the tree growing in your yard, so I told them it was their responsibility.

Long story short, I'm putting this bumper sticker on their minivan as soon as I get it.  They'll suspect who did it, but this is what you do to aggressive neighbors IMO. 

 
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