SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I have the four best bellcows this week as CJ, Hunt, Gordon and Fournette. Best receiving backs as Kamara and Chris Thompson.
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Fanduel Week 6 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KarmaPolice
- Start date
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Similar list to mine. I also have Freeman in there as a bellcow, and James White for a receiving back.
Galileo
Footballguy
Ditto. I replaced Gurley in my line up and was able to move away from Ricardo Louis with the savings. Current cash line up is looking like this...KarmaPolice said:
Watson - Fournette/Anderson - Hopkins/Allen/Fitzgerald - Njoku - Lutz - Denver
I went cheap at TE to make it happen. Njoku does not get a lot of targets but he has been somewhat productive with them having 3 TDs. I probably should pivot off Njoku. Griffen, Gates, or Derby are all in play with the cash I have available. With Watson and Hopkins already in the lineup, I don't think I want to go Griffen even though he probably gets the most targets of that group. Nothing exciting there, but I do like the rest of the lineup a lot with the cheap TE.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
That is a strong LU for sure. I do really think that Griffin is the best cheap play, but agree it seems like overkill in cash to have Hop and him in there with Watson. Problem with Hopkins is that there isn't much around him to pivot to if that is what you wanted to do. I posted earlier that Derby might be a good punt TE given the matchup with the horrible Giants D too. First step at TE every week might just be as simple as seeing who is playing the Browns and Giants.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
In addition to my “good” FanDuel week last week, I found out my survivor pool I’m in is down to 3 people, as everyone took Pittsburgh last week. If I can outlast 2 people I’ll have a nice payday. Crossing my fingers.....
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I can't remember a week w/ so many huge lines before. 5 games at 9.5 or more. 2 at 12+ for crying out loud. How do you project game script in games that one-sided?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I don’t know, I have a few cash games lined up and a couple gpps and I think I’m stopping. I’ll probably pop a couple in Sunday morning but I think it’s a good week to play a little less than usual. Too many options.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
It's not that tough, for the most part, teams are going to do what they do regardless of the spread, a large number means you lean a little bit more towards run/Def for the favorite and passing game for the underdog.
I expect ATL and Wash to run their offense as they would in any game first half and once they have a lead become more run centric. I expect NE to throw short to intermediate passes for the entire game as that is their run game. Houst will be run heavy with a good mixture of play action and again become more run centric with a big lead. Den will run, run run.
For most of these stack the RB/Def to be safe and on the other side throw a QB/WR stack at it as you know they will be forced to play catch up.
JMHO
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think there are a lot of “great Dk” plays this week because you can flex a player and there are some tasty cheap matchups. Perhaps pricing plays into it a bit.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Feels like a lot of them do steer one way or the other.
Power Grid does both, and I like the podcasts that just go game by game, so they tend to at least point out plays on both sites - Daily Fantasy OGs, Lineup Logic, and I think there is another RG podcast that goes game by game and one that is really geared to FD (they have so many I lose track).
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think the pricing is a huge difference. On FD most of the players are crammed within 2K of each other, and on DK you can have 4K difference.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I like the rest of the core, but what combo for the same price would you guys rather have for cash this week: Hunt + Landry, or Fournette + D.Adams??
I have Hunt slightly over Fournette and Adams over Landry, so I have been staring at this one today.
ETA: Just saw that Diggs is out for Sunday - maybe that should be Hunt + Thielen?
I have Hunt slightly over Fournette and Adams over Landry, so I have been staring at this one today.
ETA: Just saw that Diggs is out for Sunday - maybe that should be Hunt + Thielen?
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mrip541
Footballguy
I'm having serious second thoughts about Julio. Once the Falcons get ahead it seems like they just stop giving Julio targets.
lmack
Footballguy
Yeah -- I can't say I am touting him. Devonta Freeman and even Taylor Gabriel are nice ways to get exposure to ATL. However, the RG host who does the live show from 12:30 PM to 1PM right before kickoff brought up a point with regards to playing Julio that stuck with me: Julio is going to have a 7+/120+/1+ game at some point, and maybe you just have to keep playing him until it happens. Matchup isn't screaming favorable and the spread is so big that I get the gamescript concerns, but Julio will eat at some point. 30 implied total, at home, coming off the bye are enough to get me thinking this might be a week.
Michael Thomas is an easy +100 pivot that I am keeping in the back pocket too.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
For sure he can have those games at any time, but historically when atl is favored by a td+ at home, Julio and Ryan don't score much and Freeman averages something like 25pts.
Again, he has the talent to do it at any time, but there has to be some push back from the other team, and I am not convinced the Dolphins are that team.
The only high priced guys I seem to like this week are Thomas and Brown.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I don’t even know how you pick a rb this week, they all have great matchups. Hunt, Bell, fournette, Howard, anderson, Gordon, gurley, all are vs 20th ranked run defense or worse, Freeman is vs Miami who can’t score and will likely get work while they kill clock. Gillislee is cheap and vs bottom tier run def. So many options. Ive been punting the te position, now I’m thinking gronk will have a gronk week. I keep filling out a lineup and hitting cancel. Maybe I just hit a couple low money gpp and call it a week.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I usually start with rbs, but it might be a good week to fill in most of the rest of the LU and match the rbs to that since there great options at multiple tiers for a change.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I'm struggling where to start / who to exclude from consideration....
chalk rbs...
hunt gordon fournette cj freeman
kamara ct white
but could also see spot playing...
gurley ingram lynch coleman aaron jones mcguire gillislee martin mckinnon bell
riddick duke lewis
chalk te // spot te....
gronk, kelce, reed, griffin, fleener, watson, rudolf //
asj brate engram bennett
chalk wr // spot wr....
nuk ab fitz tate allen thomas //
julio gabriel pryor djax crabs garcon crowder golloday cobb sanders drob hill amendola hogan cooks
chalk qb // spot qb....
rivers cousins watson brees ryan brady alex //
carr hoyer palmer stafford ben simian winston
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
But things like late garbage scores can hurt a DST. And more liberal rotation of RBs. And going deeper into the WR corps. I mean, these are college lines not NFL lines. An example is Freeman. Lots of folks viewing him as a solid chalk play. But is he going to get enough touches if the game plays out like the sharps think?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I hear you, but I am slowly learning that you can't play everybody. Even podcasts I listen to recommend going with about 4-5 even if you are doing 100 gpp LUs.
You don't have to use the Dodds CRITERIA, but I think you should have some sort of way to narrow the mess down - touches/g, RZ, home/away, matchup for D, etc.
I know you do gpps vs. cash, but regardless TDs are king on FD because you don't get bonuses and it's 1/2ppr. To do damage in a gpp, you need to average about 20pts/player. (more for Qb/Rb/Wr on average, less for K, TE). That's why I try to narrow down my list by looking at targets and RZ opps. If your guy doesn't a TD you are falling behind a lot since even a 10-100-0 game is good, but only 15pts.
Perfect example is 2 guys right by each other in Hogan and T.Hill. Same price, similar # of targets on the year, but Hogan has seen 8 more RZ looks than Hill. Not saying that Hill isn't a play ever, but you just need to know that you are counting on that long TD for Hill to hit gpp value. When I looked, there were only 16 WRs with 6 or more RZ targets on the year, and it was a surprising list to me with guys like Hurns, JuJu, Gabriel, and M.Goodwin on there. Similar with QBs - IMO you need 3-4 TD upside each week (or rushing upside). Some QBs like Brees and Rodgers pass a lot in the RZ, others like Cousins haven't been this year.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
IVC really high on 2 Miami WR. Does anyone know why?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think Parker is out and people assume that Miami will be behind the whole game.
That assumes that Cutler can pass for more than 100yds and get them the ball though.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Been too busy to post or work on lineups until this morning. great work in here so far doing alot of my research for me.
cash
watson,gurly, fournette, allen, adams,nelson,asj,mcmanus,jax
cousins, anderson,fournette, hopkins,theilin, j brown, asj,hopkins,den
2 $1 SE GPP
stafford howard kamara tate pryor, a brown, fleener,tucker,jax
winston, anderson,miller,julio,djax,crowder,gronk,butker,den
cash
watson,gurly, fournette, allen, adams,nelson,asj,mcmanus,jax
cousins, anderson,fournette, hopkins,theilin, j brown, asj,hopkins,den
2 $1 SE GPP
stafford howard kamara tate pryor, a brown, fleener,tucker,jax
winston, anderson,miller,julio,djax,crowder,gronk,butker,den
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Need to stop staring at this.
Current cash LU: Hopkins - Fournette/CJA - K.Allen/Hogan/D.Adams - Griffin - Lutz - Denv.
In the end I went Fournette over Hunt to upgrade from Landry/Thielen to Adams. Basically just told myself I'd rather have the WR Rodgers is getting the ball to vs. Cutler or Keenum.
I have 4 gpps. No surprise, but 3 are Brady: one with Gronk, one White, one Hogan. My crazy gpp for the week is a KC/Pitts game stack. Went with Smith/Kelce/Hill/Brown/JuJu.
Lastly, I got invited to a low $1 league with just 8 total guys that don't play much. Got a little weird there too and stacked the Clev/Houst game: Hogan - Hunt/Fournette - R.Lewis/Fuller/K.Allen - Gronk - Lutz - Denv.
Current cash LU: Hopkins - Fournette/CJA - K.Allen/Hogan/D.Adams - Griffin - Lutz - Denv.
In the end I went Fournette over Hunt to upgrade from Landry/Thielen to Adams. Basically just told myself I'd rather have the WR Rodgers is getting the ball to vs. Cutler or Keenum.
I have 4 gpps. No surprise, but 3 are Brady: one with Gronk, one White, one Hogan. My crazy gpp for the week is a KC/Pitts game stack. Went with Smith/Kelce/Hill/Brown/JuJu.
Lastly, I got invited to a low $1 league with just 8 total guys that don't play much. Got a little weird there too and stacked the Clev/Houst game: Hogan - Hunt/Fournette - R.Lewis/Fuller/K.Allen - Gronk - Lutz - Denv.
Galileo
Footballguy
I'm fading Freeman. This feels like a Coleman game and at a minimum a lot of both guys second half. I expect them run a bunch and probably plan to try and keep both fresh throughout. Just my feeling.
Thats not to say he won't score well... Just think Coleman for the money is the better play if using a Falcons RB.
Thats not to say he won't score well... Just think Coleman for the money is the better play if using a Falcons RB.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
IMO it has the feel of a game that's 28-3 late in the 3rd and ends up 28-17 with a back door cover that was never that close.Only4fun said:
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I'm running some McCown stacks out there this week. I still think NE's defense is terrible.
reel_smooth
Footballguy
Cash L/U that I'm settled on: QB/ Watson, RB/ Fournette & CJA, WR/ Hopkins - K. Allen - Thielen, TE/ ASJ, K/ Dawson, DEF/ WASH. IVC only has it at 120.1, but, I see a lot of guys here getting volume. As always, open to other thoughts/ideas.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I am the opposite, and that's what makes this fun. I have a bit of Freeman and Atl D. Coleman never seems to be the home game guy, and he hasn't seemed to be cutting into Freeman's touches this year as much, even on the road. If I can get him at 1/2 the ownership of some of the top guys, I like that.Only4fun said:
I decided to fade the cheap guys that people are all about this week - Ingram, Kamara, McKinnon. Peyton always seems to get anybody but Ingram involved in the RZ, and I have never been a huge McKinnon guy. I think I have little of Kamara on DK, but on FD I thought it might be different this week to pay up at both RB spots or TE since it seems like a lot of people want to put a cheap guy in there to get Brown, Hopkins, and Julio in there. IF I did a cheap guy I took J.Allen or J.White as a lower % pivot.
Fully aware all these ideas could stink, but that's what gpps are for.
Gpp options I gravitated to this week:
Rivers, Hogan
J.Allen, J.White, Perine, Ajayi
JuJu, Sanders, Kearse
Henry, Derby
Didn't get too cute with D or PK
reel_smooth
Footballguy
A GPP pivot I like, seems to get decent value rankings, is Alex Smith & Tyreek Hill. Everybody is going to be all over Hunt [rightfully so, too], and, I think these two may get overlooked somewhat. Potential for KC to put up a lot of points.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think it looks fine. I haven't been using the IVC as much this year, but usually the total worried me less than if the 3 projections varied a ton. My cash LU is only at 119 this week, but they are all within a couple points agreement. Sometimes I will put something in for cash and get 110-120-130 for projections for that 120 average and that is when I take a peek at who they are really disagreeing on.
That WR combo seems like a good combo this week. It was between that and Allen/Hogan/Adams for me. Not taking Hopkins might just burn me this week, but it seemed weird not having some piece of the NE offense in there for another piece of a high implied total, and it got me another with Adams. That way I had pieces of 4 of the top 8 implied totals on the week. Might be over thinking that, but if we are looking for TDs, I figured I would rotate to that, as the other way I only had players from 2 of the top 8.
ETA: actually I guess I have 5 of 8 since I am looking at Hopkins or Lutz for PK.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I like that too.
I think a real quick and easy way to look for gpp ideas is look right at the price of the super chalk guys and just pivot. Similar roster construction, lower % guys. Watson going to be really popular - how about Winston or Ryan for the same price? Ingram chalk - how about J.Allen or C.Thompson? etc..
reel_smooth
Footballguy
Still just can't pull the trigger on Ingram for anything. I like Kamara much better this week w/ shoot-out potential and catching a lot of Drew Brees passes. IMO, Thompson & J. Allen are viable plays. I know I've got a GPP someplace w/ Allen. He kinda scare me a little for cash though w/ Collins being in the mix.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
For sure, but he has gotten the touches when they have lead/won the games. Balt seems to be a popular D option this week, so if that's the case, I figured Allen would be an option if people think they are going to control the game. Add that to Chicago being without their entire LB corps, and why not.
It goes without saying, but when I talk about these guys, I am saying maybe it's worth a shot here or there in a LU. Not advocating going all in on these guys or anything, just trying to find come <5% guys that might make some noise. If I have 10 LUs, maybe I have somebody like Allen in one LU, 2 tops.
Especially at Rb is gets hard. I don't see a ton of low % guys that could see a bunch of touches, but guys like J.Allen, McGuire, Ajayi, Howard and maybe Abdullah might.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Best GPP option amongst: Evans, Nelson, Hopkins? Looking to fill out a roster w/ 1 WR and those guys all fit.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
Anybody playing Michael Floyd in GPP?
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
Hopkins. Evans and Nelson have tough corners blanketing them limiting their ceiling.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
If the rest of the LU has a contrarian play or two, I would probably just stick with Hopkins. If it is fairly chalky, I would maybe think about Evans. Of the first 2 with the bad matchups, I think Winston is more likely to keep peppering Evans with targets than Rodgers is with Nelson.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Couple podcasts kept bringing up that Hopkins has a surprisingly unfavorable matchup as well. Probably the PFF one, as they usually talk about the ratings they have for their players.
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