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WR Calvin Ridley, TEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
For an NFL WR it is. Also he's older so doubt he naturally fills out more. He could put on weight but that would likely hurt his speed/agility.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Said it before and I’ll say it again...I’ll be avoiding Ridley in dynasty.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I think he drops to the point he becomes a value for a few years. If I were to bet, he'll be the top rookie wr this year.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
His top comparisons
Herb Haygood - 86.6%
Laverneus Coles - 85.9%
Talman Gardner - 81%
O.J. Murdoch - 79.9%
Jeris McIntire - 79.8%
Guess if he ends up like Coles he could eventually have a little value. Laverneus played in the league for awhile. Was never great but serviceable.
-OZ-
Footballguy
doowain
Footballguy
Comps of measurables really don't mean much. I think Stephen Hill and Breshad Perriman combine measurables comped to Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas.
I trust the tape and my eyes way more.
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Rodeojones
Footballguy
Exactly my thoughts. When will people learn that the combine is like snake oil. The truth is in the tape, not the scripted, t-shirt olympics.doowain said:
dschuler
Footballguy
Here’s Ridley full combine video, every rep and route. Michael Irvin was drooling over this guy the entire day FWIW.
https://www.facebook.com/AlabamaFTBL/videos/1675558695839330/
https://www.facebook.com/AlabamaFTBL/videos/1675558695839330/
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
he's obviously a better prospect than those comps. He should be solid but doesn't look like an elite WR prospect. More of a WR2 in the NFL. 900-1,000/6-8 TD a season type guy.doowain said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Of the current top 10 ranked dynasty WRs, 7 of them had fewer college receptions than Ridley, 6 had fewer college receiving yards than Ridley, and 6 had fewer college TDs than Ridley.
There are plenty of reasons to doubt Ridley at the next level. The production angle is silly though. Especially given the dreck he had at QB.
There are plenty of reasons to doubt Ridley at the next level. The production angle is silly though. Especially given the dreck he had at QB.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Agreed to a point. He's also played in more games than most of these guys. 3 year starter and, correct me if I'm wrong, Alabama has played an extra game every year of his career.
How does he compare on a per game basis or just their best year?
I'm not worried about Ridley, like many I just question his upside.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
You make a good arguement. What I would like to see is better production in spite of the qb. Couple that with age and smallish stature and I’ll pass. Maybe it’s “doctson” recency bias. I don’t see room for growth, but I think he could be what cooper Kupp is in the right situation, does that make him top 5? Kupp is another guy I like but don’t expect the numbers to get better and better as he was an older more refined player coming out of college. When I watched Ridley I came away unimpressed, but you’ve compelled me to take another look. I’m not drafting in a position where I’d take him (or have the need where I do) and I could very well be wrong about him. Maybe he can turn out golden Tate numbers for 6-7 years. Then the question is where does he go. I’m not sure the landing spots for top WRs are all that great either.
Calvin Ridley's SPARQ-x and combine didn't make him a less inetersting prospect, it just highlighted exactly what kind of outlier he'd have to be to succed in the NFL. I may not buy into SPARQ-x but I do enjoy historical comps.
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970199975492714497
I found 30 WRs since 2000 that had a SPARQ-x score below 99, like Ridley's 98.7, 10 names seemed significantly more fantasy relevant then the others, all had over 1000 yards in the first 3 years of their NFL career.
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970201530602319872
Of those 10, 3 came into the league in 2014, a class that continues to throw off trends and inflates outlier numbers. only 3 managed 800 receiving yards in their first year and 1 (Amendola) never has.
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970207645155168256
Calvin Ridley's best comp becomes a 1/30 outlier in a 10-year sample - who worked hard (with Russel Wilson!) to make it 4 years after he was entered the league...Ridley might be a stretch in the 2nd/3rd rd of rookie drafts, right now.
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970214660648693760
Just a good twitter thread overall on Calvin
This doesn't help either:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXY1PO_UMAAfeo7.jpg:large
Calvin Ridley produced a profile that has not been selected in the first round in at least 20 years.
https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/970286133337841664
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970199975492714497
I found 30 WRs since 2000 that had a SPARQ-x score below 99, like Ridley's 98.7, 10 names seemed significantly more fantasy relevant then the others, all had over 1000 yards in the first 3 years of their NFL career.
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970201530602319872
Of those 10, 3 came into the league in 2014, a class that continues to throw off trends and inflates outlier numbers. only 3 managed 800 receiving yards in their first year and 1 (Amendola) never has.
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970207645155168256
Calvin Ridley's best comp becomes a 1/30 outlier in a 10-year sample - who worked hard (with Russel Wilson!) to make it 4 years after he was entered the league...Ridley might be a stretch in the 2nd/3rd rd of rookie drafts, right now.
https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970214660648693760
Just a good twitter thread overall on Calvin
This doesn't help either:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXY1PO_UMAAfeo7.jpg:large
Calvin Ridley produced a profile that has not been selected in the first round in at least 20 years.
https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/970286133337841664
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Rodeojones
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Sparq-x is fun but given the metric's own creator mentioned that it's a pretty poor predictor for NFL success at WR (by far the lowest of any predictive field he measured), I'm not really sure how useful it is.
It will be interesting to see if that actually knocks him out of the first round or not, given that NFL draft round is more than 6x more predictive than Sparq score for NFL success.
I'm not huge on Ridley and I get that he grades poorly in most of the metrics that have correlation to NFL success. But I think some of it is overblown. He grades worst in the least predictive of those categories (Sparq-x). His breakout age was high but was as early as it could have been because it was the first year he played. His college dominator is low but was good his freshman year and regressed hugely this year when nearly 30% of Alabama's raw passing stats came from their backup QB in garbage time when RIdley and the other starters were taking the rest of the day off.
ZWK
Footballguy
That's a good point in favor of Ridley, although it looks like it was more like 1/6 of Alabama's passing production that came from Tagovailoa in garbage time (with the other 5/6 coming from either Hurts, or from Tagovailoa in the national championship game).
Snorkelson
Footballguy
If I need a wr3/flex for this year I like Ridley if he’s in a Kupp type role. I view them as very similar- tacticians that produce early but probably have less of a ceiling or room to grow. A Kendall Wright that may be better than Kendall Wright. I’ve been off the bandwagon all year but now that his value is lower I actually like him more. I don’t think he’s a #1 wr in the nfl.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's pretty close to my view. Good player, will help a team, but unless he gets drafted into a perfect situation like Jennings or Edelman, I just don't see stardom. Kupp is a decent comp.
Gandalf
Footballguy
The problem is that to get Ridley on your team I think you will be paying WR2 prices in most leagues. Maybe I’m wrong? I agree though, no way I’m touching him as anything but a desperation flex
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Yeah even for a late 1st you can probably land a guy like DT, jones/Tate, maybe alshon, someone who be a reliable wr2. If he falls into the early/mid 2nd he’d be a value- I could see 8-10 rbs and it’s not out of the question that Sutton, Moore, Kirk, Gallup, Washington, st Brown, get picked before him, or at least s few. There could be a te that lands in a “premium” spot (Bal? Again?) and could move to the late 1st. Never know what happens.
He'll be the first or second drafted WR in the NFL draft and most PPR drafts. So in that sense, put me on record as saying it is out of the question he falls to round two.
-OZ-
Footballguy
He might be the odd rookie receiver who presents better value in redraft than dynasty. I took him back in February at pick 108, WR 45 (redraft) But I also won't be taking him in a rookie draft until the 2nd which means I won't be taking him.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
This guys smells like yet another 1st WR bust. I get the feeling he won his battles in college because of his maturity over the younger DBs he was up against, using guile to hide his lack of superior athletic ability. That is going to change quickly in the NFL, where even if his technique continues to shine that the physical mismatch with starting CBs who also know the book on WR tricks will overcome any advantage that may give him.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I just can't buy into the "he'll be better once he's away from Alabama" line. The same thing was said about Ardarius Stewart. 
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
And Julio Jones.I just can't buy into the "he'll be better once he's away from Alabama" line. The same thing was said about Ardarius Stewart.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Ridley broke out in his freshman year at the age of 20. Not as ideal as an 18 year old doing when younger then opposing DBs, but it's not like he was particularly older than them either. At age 20 he was old for a freshman, but not old for a college football player.Bronco Billy said:
This isn't a case like Kevin White where he came in and looked lost when he was the same age as everyone else, then finally started dominating when he was the oldest guy left. Ridley was dominating out of the gate at age 20, playing against guys who were on par with him in age. He broke out when he was as old as a junior, not when he was as old as a 2nd year NFL player.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
If he’s 24 now - which he is - how was it that he was 20 in 2015? He was older as a freshman than a lot of the guys he was playing against.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yep, you are correct and I was wrong. That’s what I get for not double checking. He was still old as a freshman and was 21 when he played in his first bowl game. That’s significant, IMO. I can state with certainty my 20 yr old self would have schooled my 18 yr old self badly.
