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RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (4 Viewers)

To be sure, I'm only talking redraft here. If you believe in him long-term for dynasty, then by all means he's getting volume. I'd personally be worried about how he looks with it.

 
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He was never that great a runner at LSU and I don't care who said he was -- he was never a chain mover, he's a guy that thrives in open space. That's his key. The problem is when defenses start keying on him out of the backfield and Mahomes has to use his receivers like last night. 

He's RB16 which makes him RB2. He's not overall RB5 like he was being drafted in places. That was silly. 
Even in open space he hasn't impressed me as a runner in the NFL though.  As a college player he reminded me a lot of MJD.  Short but stout, and with big thighs that let him run through tackles in the second level and keep up his speed.  Haven't really seen that in the NFL at all.

Like I said my primary comp for him was MJD but he's not looking much like MJD in the NFL.

 
Even in open space he hasn't impressed me as a runner in the NFL though.  As a college player he reminded me a lot of MJD.  Short but stout, and with big thighs that let him run through tackles in the second level and keep up his speed.  Haven't really seen that in the NFL at all.

Like I said my primary comp for him was MJD but he's not looking much like MJD in the NFL.
Fair enough. I agree. I haven't been sold, either, but that's likely subject to confirmation bias on my end. I think he's done about what I thought he'd do. He's not chopped liver after all; he's a first-round pick with what I thought were serious warts. But when it comes down it, all of those guys that are RBs had some warts on them, and we're seeing it come to fruition in the games. We've seen negative parts of all their games but Dobbins, who is seemingly buried in Baltimore so far. 

 
He's done well enough to almost  completely bury Darrel Williams. I thought Williams would get more chances as a receiver, as he made a few really good receptions last year. 

 
I wouldn’t sell him. They just played 3 good defenses in a row, and he still had 295 yards in the 3 games. TDs are coming. Maybe I should go try to buy him in a few spots. 

 
I’m more concerned with the KC offensive line and their inability to run block than I am with CEH. They look downright awful. 

 
No preseason, he's learning the NFL on the fly with little practice time and faced some tough defenses out there. There are some plays where he follows the blocking too much and he'll learn to cut back for more yardage, but he's a candidate for positive TD regression and his ownership of the backfield is legit. I have guys in my league trying to offer me table scraps for him hoping I'm angry at his performance.

If you're going to trade a 1st round RB in redraft, you better get something definite back or players in as good a situation as he is.

 
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No preseason, he's learning the NFL on the fly with little practice time and faced some tough defenses out there. There are some plays where he follows the blocking too much and he'll learn to cut back for more yardage, but he's a candidate for positive TD regression and his ownership of the backfield is legit. I have guys in my league trying to offer me table scraps for him hoping I'm angry at his performance.

If you're going to trade a 1st round RB in redraft, you better get something definite back or players in as good a situation as he is.
I was offered Ridley and Drake for him in redraft. I did not take it. I’m 1-3 and already frustrated with this season, and lll tell you what... Clyde is not going to blow up on someone else’s team. 

 
RB Index, Week 5: Alvin Kamara headlines RB rankings at quarter mark

https://www.nfl.com/news/rb-index-week-5-alvin-kamara-headlines-rb-rankings-at-quarter-mark

MJD ranks CEH at #6 overall.

"2020 stats: 4 games | 71 att | 304 rush yds | 4.3 ypc | 1 rush TD | 14 rec | 129 rec yds | 0 rec TDs

The Chiefs' offense has improved with Edwards-Helaire in the backfield, as the rookie has displayed his impact in the run and pass games. He's forcing defenses to respect the rushing attack -- like they did when Kareem Hunt was with the Chiefs -- and showcasing his versatility by being a great target in a unit that's full of them for Patrick Mahomes. Four games into his NFL career, CEH is on pace to exceed 1,200 rushing and 500 receiving yards in his rookie campaign. "

 
Receiving ability will be the key here.  As a runner he looks much worse than I was anticipating after watching him at LSU.  Not as good as Hunt back there but can still be a very good back in that system with his receiving prowess.
I largely agree with this. I'm an LSU fan and to me the closest he looked like to college self was week 1 against the weakest defense they've faced so far. He's obviously not a power back, and he has better short area quickness than long speed. But I do think he provides some rushing value between the tackles -- not as a game-breaker but more as a yardage compiler. To me he started that week 1 game a little tight, but once he loosened up he was doing stuff I saw in college: patience at the line of scrimmage, slicing through traffic, and occasionally trucking someone. I think with more experience he'll be able to flash some of that against better defenses as well, but unless he takes a McCaffrey-like leap in strength after his first season he'll probably have some meaningful limitations as a rusher (and even then he won't have CMC's speed). I took him with a 1.1 rookie pick with the hopes that in this offense he would be a steady yardage producer with a high weekly floor, and I think that's what we are probably looking at as of now: a fairly reliable, eventual mid-range RB1 who is in an ideal offense for his skill set. If he's going to be more than that, then I agree it'll be because of receiving.

 
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As someone who took him in the first rd. in a keeper league I agree. He looks more like Gio Bernard than Brian Westbrook so far. Hopefully the Chiefs find a scheme that works for him.

 
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Looked good today, unfortunately for him the game script got away from the Chiefs and they had Williams in there a lot for blocking. 

Robbed of a very nice TD by an unnecessary pick by Kelce. BAD Kelce. 

 
The lack of TDs and even being pulled at the GL on occasion has to be concerning. That’s not what his owners thought when they drafted him 1.01 in rookie drafts and 1.05 in startups/redraft.

 
Demian said:
As someone who took him in the first rd. in a keeper league I agree. He looks more like Gio Bernard than Brian Westbrook so far. Hopefully the Chiefs find a scheme that works for him.
Really good comparison. I never thought of this one but that’s exactly who he reminds me of when I watch him. He is more slippery than Gio but he, more or less, plays very similarly and flat out looks like him a lot out there. I see zero Westbrook out there, which was one reason so many hyped him up- “better than Westbrook.”

 
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Week 6 fantasy football metrics notebook: It's past time to respect Ryan Tannehill, Titans passing game

Excerpt:

2 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire has elite usage

  • 81% of team backfield touches
  • 66% of team snaps
  • 14% of targets
  • 23 routes per game (6th among all RBs)
  • 17 red-zone looks
  • Kansas City ranks 20th in rushing success rate
It’s not as if Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a true letdown in fantasy football. However, his current RB13 standing after pushing the top-five picks in August drafts isn’t exactly what you want. 

That said, the usage is legitimately everything you could want. It spells out the path of a workhorse running back. 

Now, one could be tempted to declare, “Well, he just must not be any good if he’s not producing for my fake team despite this supposed great usage.” I’d argue it’s far too early to make such a declarative statement about a rookie just five games into his career. 

And let’s be honest, if he has even just a touchdown or two more tacked onto his total, we aren’t even having this discussion. Add two more scores to his 65.8 points on the year and he’d be a top-10 option at the position; no one would assert he’s been disappointing. A lack of touchdowns is mostly random, especially when, like CEH, you’ve been involved steadily in the red zone and have seven carries inside the five-yard line. The bulk touchdowns just haven’t come yet but — that doesn’t mean they won’t.

The Chiefs have a pretty cake schedule coming up following their first loss of the season in Week 5. They’ll draw the Bills, Broncos, Jets, and Panthers before their bye in Week 10. Not only will the Chiefs be favored in all those contests, but those teams also give up an average of 4.5 yards per carry, and two of the three (Carolina, Buffalo) rank in the bottom five in rushing success rate allowed. Edwards-Helaire’s best days are ahead of him as long as this type of usage keeps up.

This is still a feature back for the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs. Don’t overthink it.

 
The lack of TDs and even being pulled at the GL on occasion has to be concerning. That’s not what his owners thought when they drafted him 1.01 in rookie drafts and 1.05 in startups/redraft.
He had a TD last game that was called back on a penalty by Kelce that had nothin to do with the play. Obviously his owners don’t get credit for that but it just shows what a volatile stat TDs could be. 

 
The lack of TDs and even being pulled at the GL on occasion has to be concerning. That’s not what his owners thought when they drafted him 1.01 in rookie drafts and 1.05 in startups/redraft.
Exactly.  In the last two games, in red zone,  they are running wr sweeps over giving the ball to CEH.  The guy has a slim chance to live up to predraft expectations.

 
He had a TD last game that was called back on a penalty by Kelce that had nothin to do with the play. Obviously his owners don’t get credit for that but it just shows what a volatile stat TDs could be. 
Sure but let’s not pretend this doesn’t happen to others or that it happens more to CEH. All RBs are subject to this and many other RBs still convert more TDs. Zeke had a non-TD that should have been challenged as it was clear he was over the line. Pollard vultured it the next play

 
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Sure but let’s not pretend this doesn’t happen to others or that it happens more to CEH. All RBs are subject to this and many other RBs still convert more TDs. Zeke had a non-TD that should have been challenged as it was clear he was over the line. Pollard vultured it the next play
Who is pretending that?

 
Who is pretending that?
Hopefully no one. Bringing up a single called back TD doesn’t dispute anything about his lack of TDs unless he’s had a disproportionate number of TDs called back on penalties that had nothing to do with the play. 

 
Hopefully no one. Bringing up a single called back TD doesn’t dispute anything about his lack of TDs unless he’s had a disproportionate number of TDs called back on penalties that had nothing to do with the play. 
The point is that if he scores that TD then the panic isn't as high. Of course it happens multiple times each week - that's why TDs are a volatile stat - if he has 2 TDs after 5 games or he scores 3 TDs over the next two weeks (not saying that will happen) then this goes away.

I will say that he has not shown to be a strong goal-line runner but in this offense TDs will come.

Teams are starting to realize that the way to slow down Mahomes is to not blitz him and only rush four and drop seven back in coverage. A smart coach like Reid should combat that with running a bit more and sending CEH (or another RB) into the flats for dump offs until defenses start playing them more honestly.

 
From The Athletic: 

The Athletic reports free agent Le'Veon Bell is expected to sign with either the Chiefs or Dolphins. 

This is in line with NFL Network's report that the Dolphins have been "waving around" money in their pursuit of Bell after the Chiefs thought they had a deal done. There is always some way to make the numbers work, but the Dolphins have considerably more cap space than the Chiefs. Bell would knock Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of the top 20 at running back if he signed in Kansas City, while Myles Gaskin would probably slide beyond FLEX status. 

 
It was a run. 
After Barkley went down my chances in the league I have CEH went down anyway as I’m coming out of a rebuild. This obviously hurts him for this year but not long term and it will be fun to watch them both in KC and CEH should still see work.

 
Well. He was who we thought he was so far. A situation-dependent back, for the most part. Now let's see if he can beat out a vet that has lost a step. If he can't, I'd be worried. This tells me little about dynasty - what it tells me is that it is time to dump Darrel Williams from my dynasty fantasy squad. Oh wells. 

 
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I’m feeling a 100/2 game coming up for CEH on Monday night just so everyone officially loses their minds about this situation.

 
Exactly. I think Bell is going to come in and have to earn his touches. It remains to be seen if he's capable of that. 
This sound like wishful thinking.  Bell didn’t sign somewhere where he wasn’t promised a significant role.  And KC sure as hell isn't going to bring him in to make him “earn his touches” after seeing the issues in NYJ after he felt he was being “mis-used.”   Best-case scenario is a fairly even split, but Bell gets the most valuable touches: near the GL.

 
This sound like wishful thinking.  Bell didn’t sign somewhere where he wasn’t promised a significant role.  And KC sure as hell isn't going to bring him in to make him “earn his touches” after seeing the issues in NYJ after he felt he was being “mis-used.”   Best-case scenario is a fairly even split, but Bell gets the most valuable touches: near the GL.
Exactly what Fournette owners were saying when he signed with Tampa Bay, exactly. 

 
Rotoworld take:

New Chiefs RB Le'Veon Bell will threaten Clyde Edwards-Helaire's No. 1 status in Kansas City's backfield. 

It's, of course, possible Bell does far more than threaten CEH's No. 1 status. He could take it outright, though it won't happen in Week 6. Bell is ineligible to play against the Bills on Monday because of the NFL's COVID-19 guidelines. He will make his debut in Week 7 vs. the Broncos. Bell arrives as Edwards-Helaire has finished under 65 yards rushing in four straight games, failing to average more than 4.0 yards per carry in any contest since Week 1. Bell's arrival is particularly bad news since, at least in theory, he is also a well above-average pass-catching back. Bell will be a threat on all three downs, and it is up to CEH to make a stand beginning Monday against Buffalo. Realistically, CEH will probably begin in the RB20-28 range for Week 7, with Bell likely to get an immediate shot on early downs/in the red zone. It will then be a week-by-week affair from there. 

RELATED: 

Le'Veon Bell

Oct 15, 2020, 7:04 PM ET

 
THIS

I knew when I heard Bell had been cut that he'd end up on KC.  At worst, Bell will be Darrell Williams PLUS most of the goal line work.  At best, he could garner 60% of the RB touches.  Either way CEH is certainly no longer a top 15 RB and probably a borderline RB2.

CEH...

- has no power so was already losing goal line

- was not being used properly (i.e. too much between the tackles, not enough designed plays to get him in space)

- has a coach who really doesn't like to run the ball all that much anyway

- is on a team with a QB that makes the above philosophy the absolute right one

- will now be competing with a vet who excels at receiving work

Bell MAY be washed up but we all drafted CEH because we believed that even a modest talent could excel on that team. 

It's over.  

 
Le’Veon Bell Fantasy Outlook: How does his signing impact the Chiefs offense?

Excerpt:

How does Le’Veon Bell impact the rest running backs on the Chiefs roster for fantasy?

There is nowhere else to start here than looking at the running back position for the Chiefs. Imagine being a fantasy manager with Clyde Edwards-Helaire on your team. You were thrilled with him dodging any committee approach with Damien Williams, but now, you have to deal with Le’Veon Bell stealing carries. 

Since Damien Williams opted out of the season, the only backs behind Edwards-Helaire were Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, and DeAndre Washington. Williams and Thompson have accounted for less than 70 rushing yards through five games. Washington hasn’t had a rushing attempt for the Chiefs yet. It has been the CEH show all season as he is currently on pace for 1,650 total yards in 2020.

The addition of Bell muddies the water so much for Edwards-Helaire and his fantasy value. You don’t bring in a talent like Bell and not plan on using him. Even for Andy Reid, who has been traditionally a coach who relies on a single running back, the talent is too good to pass up and not give 10-12 touches per game. For Edwards-Helaire, who is averaging 19.7 touchers per game, this could be very problematic. 

Sitting at RB12 on the year in PPR, Edwards-Helaire could easily have a top-6 season if his redzone efficiency wasn’t so poor. From inside the 10-yard line, he has rushed the ball ten times for -1 yards. From inside the 5-yard line, he has seven carries for an astounding -3 yards on the season. This is 2019 Nick Chubb level of inefficiency. 

While we would love to see him convert even two of these into touchdowns, at least we have the volume to hang our hat on as eventually, Edwards-Helaire would fall into the endzone at some point. Bell’s addition could quickly take away close to half of these touches, limiting both of their ceilings.

What if I have Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a dynasty league? A redraft league?

If you currently roster Cylde Edwards-Helaire in dynasty, this changes nothing. Bell would be a rental piece for a team looking to repeat as Super Bowl Champions, and we need to maintain a multi-year view on players. If you don’t have him, see if the current manager is panicked and try to acquire him. It is not very often you get the chance to add the RB1/RB2 of that season when it does not involve an injury. 

As for redraft, things have changed. Edwards-Helaire will not be the 20 touches per game player that he was just last week and will come back to the 14-16 per game range. Granted, in an offense like the Chiefs have, that’s more than enough to be useful. Currently sitting as the RB12 in PPR, that was almost his floor. Now, I think it is virtually his ceiling thanks to Bell’s addition in the offense. 

I would not be panic selling; I think that window has passed. But until we have a good idea of what the team plans on doing with both Bell and Edwards-Helaire, it is best to hold for right now.

 
Exactly what Fournette owners were saying when he signed with Tampa Bay, exactly. 
That’s a good point; but Fournette isn’t Bell.  And we don’t really know it wasn’t true for a Fournette.  He didn’t play much his first week after just joining TB; greatly outperformed Jones in his 2nd game, then has been hurt since.  So not sure your “exactly what Fournette owners were saying” point is completely relevant. 

 
It's funny that people are trying to use this to somehow bury Clyde Edwards-Helaire. if you look at his situation and metrics... he's been fine. Catch and Juke rate good, Top 3 in Broken Tackle percentage. Top 10 in positive Rush rate and Yards after contact. His only bugaboo is that he hasn't scored a lot of touchdowns (which is subject to regression and luck at times), but the staff loves him and as I said in the Bell thread the signing isn't that CEH has made a mistake or hasn't lived up to his billing. If he had, you'd see Darrell Williams or the mistake-prone Darwin Thompson get more opportunities over him. It's been the opposite: CEH has consistently been getting over 60% of the snaps  while Darrell Williams has received between 20-25-ish% and Darwin Thompson sent to the Shadow Realm.

You take the weird game script KC had in Week 5 vs. the Raiders; Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 60% of he snaps but Darrell Williams played 40% of them. That was his highest snap count since Opening Night, where he played 33% to CEH's 67%. We saw Edwards mix in playing from behind and get a lot of receptions, even losing a receiving TD due to penalty. But it did expose a potential issue where KC may need a bigger back for pass protection that has pass catching chops, and that's where this move comes in. Let's be realistic about this: Andy Reid is not going to hand Bell the starting job in Week 7, so I think the nominal scenario for KC's backfield when Bell is fully up to speed is to inherit the Darrell Williams role. The key is this: If Le'Veon Bell still has a good amount of juice left, can Clyde Edwards-Helaire retain his 60%+ snap count assuming he doesn't do anything wrong?

The hit to Clyde Edwards-Helaire's value is obvious; no longer is he a upside RB1 carrying a big workload. However (IHMO), assuming Bell stays within Darrell Williams' Week 2-4 snap count range he could still return low-end RB1 value. If we see the snap count split be 60-40 ... well now CEH drops out of the RB1 range w/o touchdown help. And of course the worst case scenario where Andy Reid just guts everything is a hot hand scenario or CEH losing his job outright, which you can't predict at this moment because we don't have enough evidence of that being a possibility. Could it happen? Sure eventually, but a lot of things that have yet to happen have to come into play.

I think the best thing for a CEH owner is assess you league and situation. I'm going to hold for a week and hope CEH keeps doing what he's doing in Week 7; gaining yards after contact, breaking tackles and getting lots of receptions. Regression tells us the TDs are coming as long as he keeps getting the opportunity. We just hope that for Week 7 and beyond, he keeps getting a lot of opportunity.

 
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I don’t think there’s anyway to spin that this is a good thing for CEH (this year), but he’ll get Monday to show that it doesn’t have to be a terrible thing. I don’t see any chance that Bell doesn’t have a decent sized role though.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I don’t think there’s anyway to spin that this is a good thing for CEH (this year), but he’ll get Monday to show that it doesn’t have to be a terrible thing. I don’t see any chance that Bell doesn’t have a decent sized role though.
Agree, didn't even want to engage anyone who thinks CEH will be just fine and Bell will have a hard time earning touches, I don't think KC is bringing him in to kick the tires, they have a plan and he is the shot in the arm the offense needs right now. I doubt we see Bell under 4 yds per carry and I expect him to garner targets. Where those targets come from not sure but it could eat into targets people planned for WR2 and WR3 on this team.

 
I get why people think Bell might be washed but he’s also 28 and was playing for Gase. Jameson Crowder and Jarvis Landry seem to be the only offensive players in the NFL capable of doing well in an Adam Gase offense.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I don’t think there’s anyway to spin that this is a good thing for CEH (this year), but he’ll get Monday to show that it doesn’t have to be a terrible thing. I don’t see any chance that Bell doesn’t have a decent sized role though.
Define "decent sized" relative to total total snaps. Assuming KC runs 70 offensive plays a game, let's say Clyde Edwards-Helaire plays 60% of them minimum (he hasn't played any less than that) - that would give him 42 plays. Let's say it's Week 8 and Bell has a game under his belt and claims 40% of the workload since KC runs 11 or 12 personnel at a 92% clip (not many situations they use 2 RBs at the same time), 28 snaps. Like I posted earlier, a 60-40 split is significant enough to cut into his role the last few weeks, but not soul-killing "NOOOO TRADE HIM AWAY" enough.

I don't think Bell is washed at all, but in this O I think both back can find value. I also don't think CEH becomes Darrell Henderson because based on the data we have and taking Reid and the staff at their word... it doesn't add up.

 
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The only way this isn't bad for CEH is if Le'Veon is there to take the Darrel and Darwin touches. 

It seems like a stretch to say that Bell signed with the Chiefs over a better deal with bell cow role just to pick up those scraps.  Perhaps he wants a ring much more than I thought but I would think he wants to showcase himself as a bell cow. 

I roster way too much of CEH. 

 

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