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RB Zack Moss, BUF


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Rotoworld:

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Utah RB Zack Moss ran the 40-yard dash in 4.65 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Moss (5'9/223) came out in sluggish style with a 4.72-second 40-yard dash, but he managed to improve upon that nicely with his second run through the sprint. 4.65 seconds might not be scalding, but it's not quite the stock killer that that 4.72-second mark would have been. The physical, elusive Utah product ranks as PFF's No. 1 running back in the class.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Feb 28, 2020, 10:10 PM ET

 

 

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I'm not too worried about it. It doesn't change what he did on the field, which includes things like elusiveness, vision, and pass catching. Nobody watched him and loved him for his speed. Fortunately the 40 time is within what you might call the reasonable 'threshold' - not a death sentence. Jacobs last year ran 4.64 at his pro day, still selected #24. Moss won't be a first rounder, but 2nd-3rd is very reasonable. Bold prediction: there will be one GM who loves PFF and takes their top RB (it's Moss) before we expect. 3rd RB off the board perhaps. 

Edit to add: Le'Veon Bell ran 4.60, Arian Foster ran 4.69. Posted this because these are two comps made for Moss in this thread. 

Edited by cloppbeast
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In hindsight, whilst I appreciate and have been reading everyone’s opinions across these threads I may have somehow confused @travdogg and @menobrown posts in relation to Moss specifically ! Apologies ! 
 

@travdogg has your assessment changed at all in seeing him as your top RB ? Whilst him blazing a faster than expected 40 would never be a bad thing, I’m not overly concerned by a 4.65 given what his apparent strengths are. Let’s see what the pro day brings, and if this supposed strain did impact anything. Physically, he looked like specimen out there.Bucky Brooks was quick to point out that Moss’ 40 time didn’t bother him at all 

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26 minutes ago, TartanLion said:

In hindsight, whilst I appreciate and have been reading everyone’s opinions across these threads I may have somehow confused @travdogg and @menobrown posts in relation to Moss specifically ! Apologies ! 
 

@travdogg has your assessment changed at all in seeing him as your top RB ? Whilst him blazing a faster than expected 40 would never be a bad thing, I’m not overly concerned by a 4.65 given what his apparent strengths are. Let’s see what the pro day brings, and if this supposed strain did impact anything. Physically, he looked like specimen out there.Bucky Brooks was quick to point out that Moss’ 40 time didn’t bother him at all 

I was expecting high 4.5 or low 4.6, so well i'd have liked to have seen a better time, its not that bad to me. I was more bothered by Akers poor shuttle time, and by CEH's 40.

He's still my RB1, and frankly, probably in his own tier, as I just can't get over Taylor's lack of receiving ability, even though I do think Taylor is a slightly better runner.  My question is how many top RB's are there, that aren't good pass catchers. Chubb, Henry, and Carson are pretty much it, and Taylor is unlikely to end up in a situation like Tennessee or Seattle, unless the Titans lose Henry. I also don't think he's in Chubb's league as a runner, as in my opinion Chubb is the best runner in the NFL.

On the other side, Swift's lack of tackle breaking bugs me a little, and I worry he might end up being a Duke Johnson/Giovani Bernard type, that always leaves you wanting more as a runner. 

Moss is my RB1 because he's the guy I simply have the fewest issues with. Speed is basically it, he's near the top of everything else, and at the top of tackle breaking. If I have the #1 pick though, I'm going Jeudy, and Lamb at #2. 

1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

I'm not too worried about it. It doesn't change what he did on the field, which includes things like elusiveness, vision, and pass catching. Nobody watched him and loved him for his speed. Fortunately the 40 time is within what you might call the reasonable 'threshold' - not a death sentence. Jacobs last year ran 4.64 at his pro day, still selected #24. Moss won't be a first rounder, but 2nd-3rd is very reasonable. Bold prediction: there will be one GM who loves PFF and takes their top RB (it's Moss) before we expect. 3rd RB off the board perhaps. 

Edit to add: Le'Veon Bell ran 4.60, Arian Foster ran 4.69. Posted this because these are two comps made for Moss in this thread. 

Arizona practically followed PFF's board for every pick last year. They are also a strong candidate to take a RB, if Drake wants top-5 money.  PFF compared him to Kareem Hunt for what that is worth. I don't think Moss is quite on those levels, but he certainly has a skill set that can succeed in the same way.

Good point about Jacobs, and most(myself included) thought he was a reach last year, and he proceeded to easily be the best RB in the class, and a top-10 NFL RB. Speed is a nice, but highly overrated part of playing RB. Its more of a bonus if a good player is fast, than a necessity. 

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15 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

The David Montgomery of the class?

Absolutely. 

PFF is out there drooling over his evaded tackle rate just like they were Montgomery. 

I don't know exactly what they consider an evaded tackle, but it seems like it doesn't factor in just running faster than the defense as much as it should. 

Its better to not have to evade a tackle because you out ran it. 

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49 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

is that a good thing?

I think Moss is better than Montgomery, but Montgomery isn't bad at all. He had a decent rookie year,and likely will be better in year 2. I'd be ok with Montgomery as an RB2 right now. 

Not to mention in most drafts Moss will go much later than Montgomery, who was going 1.1 in some drafts last year. If he'd been say, the 1.6, I think people would be pretty happy with him right now.

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21 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

1.54 10 yard split, which isn't bad. Most people would agree explosion is more important than long speed for running backs. Not concerned. 

Agree it means more then 40 to me but please tell me where you are getting the 10 yard split info?

 

ETA just saw you post the splits in another thread. Thank you.

Edited by menobrown
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On 2/29/2020 at 10:50 AM, kittenmittens said:

Absolutely. 

PFF is out there drooling over his evaded tackle rate just like they were Montgomery. 

I don't know exactly what they consider an evaded tackle, but it seems like it doesn't factor in just running faster than the defense as much as it should. 

Its better to not have to evade a tackle because you out ran it. 

This is a good point.

For one pff is combining at least two different skills with their elusiveness rating, the ability to make would be tacklers miss and their ability to break tackles and get yards after contact. These two things are not really the same ability, yet they lump them together in creating that stat.

Dalvin Cook was only 15th in their elusiveness rating last season. Not as good on a per touch basis as he was in 2018 according to them, although 2019 was clearly a better year for Cook than the previous one.

What they are missing with this is what you are talking about, the players ability to not give defenders a chance to tackle them in the first place, and in my view that is what Cook does so well, but you can't really quantify it. Its yards before contact and folks like FBO give most of that credit to the offensive line, not the RB.

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42 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Dalvin Cook was only 15th in their elusiveness rating last season. Not as good on a per touch basis as he was in 2018 according to them, although 2019 was clearly a better year for Cook than the previous one.

Was it only better because he played the whole season?

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44 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

This is a good point.

For one pff is combining at least two different skills with their elusiveness rating, the ability to make would be tacklers miss and their ability to break tackles and get yards after contact. These two things are not really the same ability, yet they lump them together in creating that stat.

Dalvin Cook was only 15th in their elusiveness rating last season. Not as good on a per touch basis as he was in 2018 according to them, although 2019 was clearly a better year for Cook than the previous one.

What they are missing with this is what you are talking about, the players ability to not give defenders a chance to tackle them in the first place, and in my view that is what Cook does so well, but you can't really quantify it. Its yards before contact and folks like FBO give most of that credit to the offensive line, not the RB.

Well said, that is the missing piece based on the way I have heard the PFF guys describe it. 

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Was it only better because he played the whole season?

The main reason is because of how they are defining their metric.

I believe there is a per play component to the elusiveness rating. So it has the problem of small sample size. The more instances of "elusiveness" in fewer games leads to a higher frequency per touch, or per game than a larger sample size will, almost always.

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22 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I remember Trent Richardson was rated really high in pff elusiveness rating.

About the only positive stat you could find for him at the time.

....and Ray Rice had one of the lower elusiveness ratings. I think the whole stat has always looked a bit wonky to me. 

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On 3/5/2020 at 3:09 PM, Biabreakable said:

This is a good point.

For one pff is combining at least two different skills with their elusiveness rating, the ability to make would be tacklers miss and their ability to break tackles and get yards after contact. These two things are not really the same ability, yet they lump them together in creating that stat.

Dalvin Cook was only 15th in their elusiveness rating last season. Not as good on a per touch basis as he was in 2018 according to them, although 2019 was clearly a better year for Cook than the previous one.

What they are missing with this is what you are talking about, the players ability to not give defenders a chance to tackle them in the first place, and in my view that is what Cook does so well, but you can't really quantify it. Its yards before contact and folks like FBO give most of that credit to the offensive line, not the RB.

I mean, was it though? He was healthier, but his YPC was lower, and he had the advantage of a better offense(with Kubiak's influence) and a better o-line. I'm not saying he was better in 2018, but I don't think he was better in 2019, just healthier, and in a better offense. Its not something I'd give Cook credit for.

Full disclosure, I think Cook and Zeke are the 2 most overrated RB's in the NFL(now that everyone has finally come around on David Johnson) and they both benefit from scheme and play calling more than most other RB's. For the Vikings sake, I hope they don't pay Cook, especially if that causes them to let Harris leave, or possibly trade Diggs to make space.

As far as the elusive rating goes. I agree it doesn't account for players not needing to break tackles, but its also not the end all/be all of RB rating for PFF. Its merely a small part. 

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11 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I mean, was it though?

It depends on how you compare them I guess.

Yards per carry is a stat that I think makes sense as a career metric, or at least 3 years of data that's most recent if that's available. 

Cook has 450 or so Carrie's so far in his career, his YPC is 4.6 it was 4.5 last season where he had 250 attempts, a bit over 50% of his career carries.

Cook had 81 rushing yards per game in 2019 compared to 56 per game in 2018.

Cook also had more yards per target in 2019 than 2018 as well.

11 minutes ago, travdogg said:

He was healthier, but his YPC was lower, and he had the advantage of a better offense(with Kubiak's influence) and a better o-line.

The offensive line wasnt much improved from 2018 really. The scheme was much better than what DeFlippo was doing. They found a great fit for Cook in Kubiak, that's what they wanted to do when they got Cook.

11 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'm not saying he was better in 2018, but I don't think he was better in 2019, just healthier, and in a better offense. Its not something I'd give Cook credit for.

Full disclosure, I think Cook and Zeke are the 2 most overrated RB's in the NFL(now that everyone has finally come around on David Johnson) and they both benefit from scheme and play calling more than most other RB's.

I dont agree with that. I think Elliot and Cook are in a top tier of RB.

As far as scheme and supporting cast I think it's fair to say Elliot has a better offensive line than Cook.

11 minutes ago, travdogg said:

For the Vikings sake, I hope they don't pay Cook, especially if that causes them to let Harris leave, or possibly trade Diggs to make space.

They seem intent on keeping Cook so a long term extension seems likely.

That may he bad business on the vikings part, just not worth giving RB big contracts as they are in the downslope of their careers, but it does seem that the Vikings want to sign him anyways.

Maybe there is some discount for the injury risk. It's that risk that causes Cook to need to get paid now.

All of this related to the CBA and how RB specifically are screwed by its structure.

11 minutes ago, travdogg said:

As far as the elusive rating goes. I agree it doesn't account for players not needing to break tackles, but its also not the end all/be all of RB rating for PFF. Its merely a small part. 

Yes it's kind of like the ypc I think. The smaller the sample the larger effect a few big plays will have on the stat.

FWIW Cook was 6th in pff elusiveness rating in 2018 on 173 touches compared to 15th in 2019 on 303 touches.

I'm saying the volume has more to do with that difference than anything else.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

It depends on how you compare them I guess.

Yards per carry is a stat that I think makes sense as a career metric, or at least 3 years of data that's most recent if that's available. 

Cook has 450 or so Carrie's so far in his career, his YPC is 4.6 it was 4.5 last season where he had 250 attempts, a bit over 50% of his career carries.

Cook had 81 rushing yards per game in 2019 compared to 56 per game in 2018.

Cook also had more yards per target in 2019 than 2018 as well.

The offensive line wasnt much improved from 2018 really. The scheme was much better than what DeFlippo was doing. They found a great fit for Cook in Kubiak, that's what they wanted to do when they got Cook.

I dont agree with that. I think Elliot and Cook are in a top tier of RB.

As far as scheme and supporting cast I think it's fair to say Elliot has a better offensive line than Cook.

They seem intent on keeping Cook so a long term extension seems likely.

That may he bad business on the vikings part, just not worth giving RB big contracts as they are in the downslope of their careers, but it does seem that the Vikings want to sign him anyways.

Maybe there is some discount for the injury risk. It's that risk that causes Cook to need to get paid now.

All of this related to the CBA and how RB specifically are screwed by its structure.

Yes it's kind of like the ypc I think. The smaller the sample the larger effect a few big plays will have on the stat.

FWIW Cook was 6th in pff elusiveness rating in 2018 on 173 touches compared to 15th in 2019 on 303 touches.

I'm saying the volume has more to do with that difference than anything else.

I appreciate the the thorough response. I don't think we disagree too much here.

I agree with: 2019 being Cook's best season receiving, that Zeke has a better o-line than Cook, that the Vikings want to re-sign Cook.

I disagree with: Cook and Zeke as top-tier RB's, that RB's are screwed by most of their primes being on rookie deals.

I think Chubb), CMC, Barkley, and Kamara are the tier 1 RB's, and that is it. Then there are asterisk tier 1 guys, like Ekeler(best receiving weapon) or Hunt(off field issues) or Aaron Jones(durability) I'd have Zeke and Cook in tier 2 with guys like Henry, Mixon, Jacobs, and Bell(on any other team)then you have your tier 2 asterisk guys like Carson(mostly 1 dimensional+durability) or Duke(part time player) or Guice(super small sample size)

I also think RB's get paid about what they should. Its the least important position other than K or P. Even those tier 1 guys, don't really move the needle too much. If any position is underpaid(not saying any is) it'd be CB, as nickel defense is basically base defense as the average team has 5+ DB's on the field over 60% of the snaps. 

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On 2/29/2020 at 10:50 AM, kittenmittens said:

 

PFF is out there drooling over his evaded tackle rate just like they were Montgomery. 

This reminds me of something about Montgomery that I thought was put on full display last year. Someone, I can't recall who, wrote it about him in his predraft scouting report and I recall posting it in a pre-draft thread last year it was ridiculed. I think how it was phrased was he lacks creativity in the second level. 100% on the mark.

 

He's actually a good scouting lesson. Do you ever hear scouts or read scout write ups and they say things like he knows how to set up defenders on the second or third level? Well Montgomery, and Trent Richardson was another, are great examples of RB's who lack(ed) that trait.

It puzzled me for awhile because I could not figure out what was missing with Montgomery last season or really why he had such a low YPC in college. He truly has some of the best 3-4 yard runs going, that's not even a joke or a knock on him. He truly is elusive near the line of scrimmage or on that first move or two and then it's like he's got nothing.

I don't think it's a coincidence that he and Trent rated so well in PFF's elusive ranking. Yes Montgomery does a great job making that first defender miss but then it's usually a few yard run because he don't know how to set up that move to lead to the next move.

And I'm serious when I say he's a good scouting lesson. It's something I'm more keen to look for now, or as best as I can. (Swift is awesome by the way at this, CEH is pretty good  and he's got a super thin looking lower body but so is Darrynton Evans)

 

 

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15 hours ago, menobrown said:

This reminds me of something about Montgomery that I thought was put on full display last year. Someone, I can't recall who, wrote it about him in his predraft scouting report and I recall posting it in a pre-draft thread last year it was ridiculed. I think how it was phrased was he lacks creativity in the second level. 100% on the mark.

 

He's actually a good scouting lesson. Do you ever hear scouts or read scout write ups and they say things like he knows how to set up defenders on the second or third level? Well Montgomery, and Trent Richardson was another, are great examples of RB's who lack(ed) that trait.

It puzzled me for awhile because I could not figure out what was missing with Montgomery last season or really why he had such a low YPC in college. He truly has some of the best 3-4 yard runs going, that's not even a joke or a knock on him. He truly is elusive near the line of scrimmage or on that first move or two and then it's like he's got nothing.

I don't think it's a coincidence that he and Trent rated so well in PFF's elusive ranking. Yes Montgomery does a great job making that first defender miss but then it's usually a few yard run because he don't know how to set up that move to lead to the next move.

And I'm serious when I say he's a good scouting lesson. It's something I'm more keen to look for now, or as best as I can. (Swift is awesome by the way at this, CEH is pretty good  and he's got a super thin looking lower body but so is Darrynton Evans)

 

 

As a Bears fan my eyes are clouded. I remember those discussions and I was high on Montgomery, having acquired him everywhere I could. I even obsessively made offers to one owner in particular, who wouldn't budge. I offered a future 1st and DJ Moore at one point and he turned it down. But after one season I started selling him and probably wouldn't pay a 2nd for him right now (ok maybe but IDK). I still can't make heads or tails of whether Monty is any good or not, because the Bears offense (and franchise) is in such disarray that it is hard to tell. When someone says he struggled at the 2nd level, I can't help but ask "when the F did he ever get to the 2nd level?" Their run game was shockingly predictable last year, and he was facing ridiculous sets. He was still able to break tackles and make guys miss and as you said, he has some of the best 3-4 yard runs out there. But I adamantly don't think the lack of longer runs had anything to do with lack of creativity on his part but rather the defense just doing it's job. If you're going to do something at the 2nd level you have to get there in a relatively timely fashion. If you're having to dodge and sidestep and juke just to get those first 2 or 3 yards, by nature the defense is going to be closing down after that. I don't think it's his fault that he was getting bottled up. That line and offense were terrible for him. 

All that to say basically I am not a buyer due to the overall Bears ineptitude, but that otherwise I am still uncertain as to his talent and therefore his future. It's entirely possible I am undervaluing him. One thing I will say is he definitely seems to be the #1 there and will continue to get volume. I just have zero faith in their playcalling, O line, or QB play. Miller and Robinson are decent. They could use a new TE weapon (looking at you Eric Ebron).

Edited by barackdhouse
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You know, maybe a different advanced statistic that could be useful would be something that measures how many seconds it takes for the RB to get to the line of scrimmage, to the 2nd level, to the outside, to wherever the gap is, etc. I mean none of these plays are designed to take long to develop. Run plays are generally always meant to be fast hitting. I wonder if there is any correlation between the time it takes to get from snap to LOS and success in terms of yards gained.

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17 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

 When someone says he struggled at the 2nd level, I can't help but ask "when the F did he ever get to the 2nd level?"

I would describe this second level talk another way. Some RB's play the game like chess.   They have the god given instincts that when they make a move they are often setting up their next move. Montgomery is playing checkers.

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6 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Also worth noting these same things were being said about Singletary last year. Is he better at the 2nd level than Monty? Did Buffalo set him up for success better than Chicago? I guess the draft will tell us what we need to know about Moss.

Personally, I rank them: Moss>Montgomery>Singletary, though I'd put them all in the same tier.

Singletary benefited a lot from Josh Allen's threat as a runner. Buffalo is a much more favorable situation  than Chicago, I agree. Both NFL wise and fantasy wise. Maybe if Trubisky is replaced that will change, but until then, Singletary will likely outproduce Montgomery, even if he isn't actually a better RB.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I would describe this second level talk another way. Some RB's play the game like chess.   They have the god given instincts that when they make a move they are often setting up their next move. Montgomery is playing checkers.

You could be right. I don't see that, though. I mean I get what you're saying about this. There is a fluidity from one move to the next that allows guys to string moves together. I'm just not ready to say it's a problem for Montgomery. 

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

Personally, I rank them: Moss>Montgomery>Singletary, though I'd put them all in the same tier.

Singletary benefited a lot from Josh Allen's threat as a runner. Buffalo is a much more favorable situation  than Chicago, I agree. Both NFL wise and fantasy wise. Maybe if Trubisky is replaced that will change, but until then, Singletary will likely outproduce Montgomery, even if he isn't actually a better RB.

And for their ability to run a competent offense. 

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10 minutes ago, rockaction said:

David Montgomery YPC<YAC

Moss isn't Montgomery any more than he is Lynch. As mentioned by @menobrown above, Monty has some wiggle but uses it unproductively, reacting to defenders without a greater purpose. I don't get the same vibe from Moss. His best successfully comp in my opinion is LeVeon Bell. Don't take that wrong way though. 

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On 3/9/2020 at 8:29 AM, cloppbeast said:

Moss isn't Montgomery any more than he is Lynch. As mentioned by @menobrown above, Monty has some wiggle but uses it unproductively, reacting to defenders without a greater purpose. I don't get the same vibe from Moss. His best successfully comp in my opinion is LeVeon Bell. Don't take that wrong way though. 

Bell had a 6.75 3 cone at 230 lbs. 

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Quote

NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compared Utah RB Zack Moss to former Dallas Cowboys RB Marion Barber.

"Watching Moss' game tape is like watching an exercise in controlled violence on just about every carry," Zierlein writes of the 5-foot-9, 223-pounder, "but his vision, balance, patience and wiggle are additional skills that help to make him a well-rounded runner." While the Utes standout didn't show out particularly well at the NFL Scouting Combine -- 4.65 seconds in the 40-yard dash, notably -- he excels as an elusive tackle-breaking machine when healthy. Zierlein views Moss as a "great fit for gap and inside zone-heavy rushing attacks."

SOURCE: NFL.com

Mar 21, 2020, 5:54 PM ET

 

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52 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

So how does he run an electronically timed 4.52 at his workout but a 4.65 at the combine?

Both aren't electronically timed I don't believe.  Aren't private workouts for the 40 handled by a stopwatch, which seems to always favor the runner.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

because it's a private workout 

Or...

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

He said he tweaked his hamstring during the vertical jump portion of the 2020 NFL Combine,

It's hard to tell though. If it means anything, he looks more like a 4.65 when he plays football. 

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13 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

All I know is that he doesn't become draft viable for me until well into the middle to late 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts.  Thus the reason why he probably won't be on any of my rosters.

I take draft capital doesn't matter? His improved 40 puts him that rb 3-6 range this year. 

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB Zack Moss, BUF

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