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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

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I don't think that MI residents are suddenly behaving a whole bunch dumber than WI residents, for example.  They are probably mostly acting the same but at different levels of community immunity and different levels of variant in their area.  MI had the lowest caseload in the Midwest prior to this.  Lots of people who aren't immune there, and with more transmissible variants, behavior that they could get away with before now results in getting covid. 

 
Willy said:
I don't think that MI residents are suddenly behaving a whole bunch dumber than WI residents, for example.  They are probably mostly acting the same but at different levels of community immunity and different levels of variant in their area.  MI had the lowest caseload in the Midwest prior to this.  Lots of people who aren't immune there, and with more transmissible variants, behavior that they could get away with before now results in getting covid. 
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My first thought was less circulation of the virus to date as well, but looking at Deaths/Million, while they are lower than IL and IN they are higher than both WI and OH, so not sure.  I don't know what the answer is personally, and we're just random people on a message board, but the seeming lack of curiosity in general about outlier states and areas is really frustrating.  Even people like Fauci seem to typically resort to wherever cases are up, it's because people there are stupid and bad type thinking. 

ISTM that in science unexpected results that you can't explain are typically what eventually lead to greater understanding.  I'm not sure why we (the royal we) tend to be ignoring them.

 
Dr_Zaius said:
My first thought was less circulation of the virus to date as well, but looking at Deaths/Million, while they are lower than IL and IN they are higher than both WI and OH, so not sure.  I don't know what the answer is personally, and we're just random people on a message board, but the seeming lack of curiosity in general about outlier states and areas is really frustrating.  Even people like Fauci seem to typically resort to wherever cases are up, it's because people there are stupid and bad type thinking. 

ISTM that in science unexpected results that you can't explain are typically what eventually lead to greater understanding.  I'm not sure why we (the royal we) tend to be ignoring them.
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Yep. The attempt to blame what is happening in MI on MAGA types isnt going to uncover any useful information in Flint, Detroit, and Jackson. The 3 metros ranked 1,2,3 for highest current rates of spread in the country. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
Yep. The attempt to blame what is happening in MI on MAGA types isnt going to uncover any useful information in Flint, Detroit, and Jackson. The 3 metros ranked 1,2,3 for highest current rates of spread in the country. 
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Michigan is fascinating.  Would really be interested to hear what the true root causes are then.  Clearly I was way way off on this.

 
An interesting trend I’ve noticed with our immunization demographics since we opened up to everyone. Up until now with the older ages we would regularly see 80-90% white. Now I’d say it’s well below 50%. We’re seeing a lot more families coming in together now that everyone is eligible. It’s been great to see this shift and I’m wondering if this trend is happening leverywhere.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Michigan is fascinating.  Would really be interested to hear what the true root causes are then.  Clearly I was way way off on this.
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Honestly the data has been fascinating in many places over the course of this. 

Unfortunately there is a huge resistance to talking about that data and there is a limited ability to let go of assumptions. 

I first saw this in WI in May when the supreme court overturned the safer at home order. I remember driving around a few days later just to look at parking lots. Stores and restaurants that previously had been closed now had a bunch of cars in the parking lots. Seemed like everybody around me reopened. 

There was an initial spike, but it was just a blip and came right back down. Of course it was pretty rainy for a bit and memorial day all happened at the same time. Testing was ramping up too. So who knows what caused the blip or if there was even one. 

We saw how fast this thing can get out of hand so with everything opening up the way it was we should have seen a massive increase if opening up was going to have a big effect. But we didnt here. We stayed flatlined for a long time. Then we started to see a massive rapid uptick months later. Leading to a peak before thanksgiving. 

Weather gets colder. Holidays upon us. And covid plummets. Exactly the opposite of what experts had been predicting, again. 

I have wondered how many policy changes put in place to limit covid have actually increased covid. 

For example I read once that one of the highest rates of spread was in fast food workers. It made me think of the times I drove to North Dakota to visit my sister. Finding a bathroom for my daughter to use was pretty much impossible since so many fast food restaurants went drive thru only between here and there. So I just busted out her old potty seat and brought it with for pit stops. Made me wonder if it would have been safer to keep the doors partially open, but just close off all of the seating inside. So walk up customers could still get food, but at least the doors would get opened up repeatedly throughout the day and would be open a little bit when they werent being open. 

Instead we had them working in a structure with the fresh air exchange severely limited by closed locked doors and newly plexiglass partially blocked drive thru windows. 

 
Interesting discussion.  A lot of this virus is random.  It is out of our control.  

I think as we go forward we will still be seeing outbreaks, but they will get continually smaller.  We had huge regional outbreaks last summer and last fall.  I think there will continue to be regional outbreaks but they will be smaller and smaller.  Then we will keep having localized outbreaks and they will get smaller and smaller until the disease finally goes away.  Of course this may be exactly the opposite of what happens.  Nothing has been easy to predict.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Honestly the data has been fascinating in many places over the course of this. 

Unfortunately there is a huge resistance to talking about that data and there is a limited ability to let go of assumptions. 

I first saw this in WI in May when the supreme court overturned the safer at home order. I remember driving around a few days later just to look at parking lots. Stores and restaurants that previously had been closed now had a bunch of cars in the parking lots. Seemed like everybody around me reopened. 

There was an initial spike, but it was just a blip and came right back down. Of course it was pretty rainy for a bit and memorial day all happened at the same time. Testing was ramping up too. So who knows what caused the blip or if there was even one. 

We saw how fast this thing can get out of hand so with everything opening up the way it was we should have seen a massive increase if opening up was going to have a big effect. But we didnt here. We stayed flatlined for a long time. Then we started to see a massive rapid uptick months later. Leading to a peak before thanksgiving. 

Weather gets colder. Holidays upon us. And covid plummets. Exactly the opposite of what experts had been predicting, again. 

I have wondered how many policy changes put in place to limit covid have actually increased covid. 

For example I read once that one of the highest rates of spread was in fast food workers. It made me think of the times I drove to North Dakota to visit my sister. Finding a bathroom for my daughter to use was pretty much impossible since so many fast food restaurants went drive thru only between here and there. So I just busted out her old potty seat and brought it with for pit stops. Made me wonder if it would have been safer to keep the doors partially open, but just close off all of the seating inside. So walk up customers could still get food, but at least the doors would get opened up repeatedly throughout the day and would be open a little bit when they werent being open. 

Instead we had them working in a structure with the fresh air exchange severely limited by closed locked doors and newly plexiglass partially blocked drive thru windows. 
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Yes, even adjusted for lag, a lot of the movements just don't make a whole lot of logical sense.  Cases going down in places after restrictions are lifted, not being able to pick out major holidays on the case curves, etc.  I can't intellectually bring myself to the restrictions do nothing camp as it just doesn't make any sense, but I wonder if the type of things we've restricted are largely in the noise.  If, for example, the spread is driven mainly my superspreading areas like hospitals. doctor's offices, and factories, then maybe a lot of these restrictions are like choosing to open or close the windows on your oceanfront house during a hurricane - sure it affects how much water gets in, but if there's 10 foot of storm surge you won't be able to tell the difference.

I hear you on bathrooms and travel.  My daughter is at college out of state, and we rely on the highway rest stops, because it's next to impossible to find anything else a lot of places.  As far as nonsensical restrictions, when we dropped my daughter off I had a nice rant to my wife after we went for a short hike in a park.  I wanted to use the restroom before we hit the road, and the nice park bathroom facility was closed but they had a singular port-o-pot.  Because it definitely makes sense to make everyone get in the same shoebox to do their business rather than have them use a building 1000 times the size.  Idiots  :wall:

 
Dr_Zaius said:
Yes, even adjusted for lag,
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This is kind of one of the bigger misconceptions I have noticed. In many places there is basically no lag between case spikes and hospital spikes. Often it is just a day or two. Very rarely does it reflext what we would expect.

That is another one that makes little sense logically, but there it is in so many places.

 
parasaurolophus said:
This is kind of one of the bigger misconceptions I have noticed. In many places there is basically no lag between case spikes and hospital spikes. Often it is just a day or two. Very rarely does it reflext what we would expect.

That is another one that makes little sense logically, but there it is in so many places.
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I barely even pay attention to cases at this point.  So heavily dependent on testing volumes, which seem to fluctuate significantly for reasons that are unexplainable.

 
parasaurolophus said:
We saw how fast this thing can get out of hand so with everything opening up the way it was we should have seen a massive increase if opening up was going to have a big effect. But we didnt here. We stayed flatlined for a long time. Then we started to see a massive rapid uptick months later. Leading to a peak before thanksgivin
Click to expand...
You've brought this up many times, but the same thing didn't happen all over the US. The timing was different, etc. 

Right now we are seeing a large rebound in cases in the Mid-Atlantic, reaching rates not seen since January.  We have finally opened to in-person school, finally opened up more in-person dining, etc.  Is that driving cases here?

I had high hopes about 3-4 weeks ago that with vaccinations ramping up, cases plummeting, that we had turned a corner.   But there are still a lot of unvaccinated and unexposed people out there.  While death rates won't approach what we had before as the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, there are still a lot of people that will suffer and some people will die. 

This epidemic is maddening. 

 
The Z Machine said:
You've brought this up many times, but the same thing didn't happen all over the US. The timing was different, etc. 
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I know. Thats the point. You cant say x was the cause when so many places had conflicting data. Especially when the media has gone out of their way to paint those places as basically superspreader extrordinaires. 

 
Dr_Zaius said:
Yes, even adjusted for lag, a lot of the movements just don't make a whole lot of logical sense.  Cases going down in places after restrictions are lifted, not being able to pick out major holidays on the case curves, etc.  I can't intellectually bring myself to the restrictions do nothing camp as it just doesn't make any sense, but I wonder if the type of things we've restricted are largely in the noise.  If, for example, the spread is driven mainly my superspreading areas like hospitals. doctor's offices, and factories, then maybe a lot of these restrictions are like choosing to open or close the windows on your oceanfront house during a hurricane - sure it affects how much water gets in, but if there's 10 foot of storm surge you won't be able to tell the difference.
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That's my theory, FWIW.  I think many of us -- me included -- grossly ever-estimated the impact of mandates.  Most people are going to wear masks, socially distance, etc. whether you tell them to or not.  Some people are going to go mask-less and hang out together in their homes regardless of what restrictions you put in place.  Looking back now, it seems obvious that the actions of the marginal person -- the two or three people who will wear masks if you make them but won't otherwise -- don't really matter much relative to the bigger things like the weather and even just random variance.

 
[icon] said:
What kind of grown man leaves the house without his wallet? 🤯
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I haven’t carried a wallet in 13 months.  I never go anywhere in COVID.  Have to remind myself to take one when needed.  Actually put a reminder on my phone to bring an ID with me to get vaccine #1 for this exact reason.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
I haven’t carried a wallet in 13 months.  I never go anywhere in COVID.  Have to remind myself to take one when needed.  Actually put a reminder on my phone to bring an ID with me to get vaccine #1 for this exact reason.
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I guess if you never leave the house you don't need a wallet but that's not really conflicting with "what man leaves the house (aside for a walk) without a wallet." 

I guess if you live somewhere where you don't drive it makes sense, but carrying identification and a credit card when leaving the house feels like a no brainer for most adults. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
That's my theory, FWIW.  I think many of us -- me included -- grossly ever-estimated the impact of mandates.  Most people are going to wear masks, socially distance, etc. whether you tell them to or not.  Some people are going to go mask-less and hang out together in their homes regardless of what restrictions you put in place.  Looking back now, it seems obvious that the actions of the marginal person -- the two or three people who will wear masks if you make them but won't otherwise -- don't really matter much relative to the bigger things like the weather and even just random variance.
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My theory is that the mandates helped set the tone in the beginning and greatly increased the number of people who wore masks, socially distanced, etc., and most of those people are still doing so after the mandates were lifted so the harm of removing them was over-estimated.

Still think they were very important, and we would have been much better off if it was pushed more at the national level by a certain someone in the beginning, but that's for another forum.

 
[icon] said:
I guess if you never leave the house you don't need a wallet but that's not really conflicting with "what man leaves the house (aside for a walk) without a wallet." 

I guess if you live somewhere where you don't drive it makes sense, but carrying identification and a credit card when leaving the house feels like a no brainer for most adults. 
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I just keep my wallet in my console for exactly this reason.  I would forget it all the time otherwise.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
That's my theory, FWIW.  I think many of us -- me included -- grossly ever-estimated the impact of mandates.  Most people are going to wear masks, socially distance, etc. whether you tell them to or not.  Some people are going to go mask-less and hang out together in their homes regardless of what restrictions you put in place.  Looking back now, it seems obvious that the actions of the marginal person -- the two or three people who will wear masks if you make them but won't otherwise -- don't really matter much relative to the bigger things like the weather and even just random variance.
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Public health previously acknowledged this reality. 

It was actually mentioned in the lancet study that came out early on about school closures. That kids would still get together, often in more intimate conversational settings or in other groups. 

People like Leann Wen, pointed out that closing things just leads to people getting together elsewhere. 

 
[icon] said:
I guess if you never leave the house you don't need a wallet but that's not really conflicting with "what man leaves the house (aside for a walk) without a wallet." 

I guess if you live somewhere where you don't drive it makes sense, but carrying identification and a credit card when leaving the house feels like a no brainer for most adults. 
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I’m down to two cards (DL and bank card) and carry them both in my phone case - going on about 2 years with no wallet that I carry.  I keep my old wallet in my desk drawer with all the other crap I used to carry still in it.  I’ll never go back to carrying one.

 
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[icon] said:
I guess if you never leave the house you don't need a wallet but that's not really conflicting with "what man leaves the house (aside for a walk) without a wallet." 

I guess if you live somewhere where you don't drive it makes sense, but carrying identification and a credit card when leaving the house feels like a no brainer for most adults. 
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When I go to the grocery store, I bring a mask and a credit card.  Almost never carry a wallet.  IMO wallets are an archaic concept. 

 
For the last 10 years all I carry is 

License, CC, Debit card, medical card.

Plus my cash.   I probably don't need to carry the debit or medical but they are there if I need them 

 
Alex P Keaton said:
When I go to the grocery store, I bring a mask and a credit card.  Almost never carry a wallet.  IMO wallets are an archaic concept. 
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Do you have a Drivers license? Just live in a walkable community and don't drive?

Where does your health insurance card go, if you get in an accident or have another incident that sends you to the hospital? 

Just grab your Healthcare Flexspend card or Company/Corporate card? When you need it? 

Costco/Sam's/other store/membership cards? 

My wallet is a ridge knockoff and is plenty small. Definitely wouldn't carry a full size wallet but I like having my license (because I drive), health insurance (because #### happens), main CC (for purchases), debit card (in case I need cash), and Costco CC/membership card. 5 cards plus cash presents a pretty small package. 

Id wager the vast majority of men need more than 1 or 2 cards on them at any given time. That will change but if hasn't yet so wallet toters are still the dominant majority, 
 

 
AAABatteries said:
I’m down to two cards (DL and bank card) and carry them both in my phone case - going on about 2 years with no wallet that I carry.  I keep my old wallet in my desk drawer with all the other crap I used to carry still in it.  I’ll never go back to carrying one.
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Okay but you carry a drivers license / ID. The point of my post is it seems silly to not carry one daily unless you don't drive anywhere. Even then I carry ID. 

 
TIL a large chunk of the FFA should probably start taking Ginko Biloba of some other memory boosting supplement :lol:  

You guys are some forgetful mother####ers 😂

 
[icon] said:
Okay but you carry a drivers license / ID. The point of my post is it seems silly to not carry one daily unless you don't drive anywhere. Even then I carry ID. 
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Yep - and from some of the things you mention:

Healthcare card - use the app and the card is on there.

Costco - same thing, use the app.

I drive pretty much every day and never carry a wallet - I have my phone on me pretty much any time I’m awake so I can leave without grabbing my wallet.  But yes, not carrying a DL on you does seem odd.  

 
After getting vaccinated, is there any reason to wait to donate blood?  Red Cross keeps hitting me up due to an emergency shortage of Type O.  It'll be two weeks since my 2nd dose of Moderna on Tuesday.  Blood drive is Wednesday.

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
After getting vaccinated, is there any reason to wait to donate blood?  Red Cross keeps hitting me up due to an emergency shortage of Type O.  It'll be two weeks since my 2nd dose of Moderna on Tuesday.  Blood drive is Wednesday.
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Call them. There is a waiting period.  If can't seem to get a clear answer from google. 

 
AAABatteries said:
I’m down to two cards (DL and bank card) and carry them both in my phone case - going on about 2 years with no wallet that I carry.  I keep my old wallet in my desk drawer with all the other crap I used to carry still in it.  I’ll never go back to carrying one.
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I do this exact thing with my phone case and I love it.

It has crossed my mind however that if I lose my phone and I'm anywhere but at home, I'll be really, really screwed. 

 
I wish I could shed the wallet, I just feel given my usage it's more convenient to just keep 5 main cards and cash in a ridge-style clamshell and just grab that and phone when going out. 
 

I don't trust my health card and/or DL being only in my phone. Car wreck where they can't find your phone or it's damaged, or you're knocked out / disoriented and they can't get access to the phone.... they have no way to know who you are, how to handle your hospital stay , etc.  

Maybe I'm old school but the wallet in the pocket stays with you and is easy to find in the unlikely event of a wreck or other accident or health issue. 
 

Definitely ready for the post wallet future.  Just not there yet for me. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
That's my theory, FWIW.  I think many of us -- me included -- grossly ever-estimated the impact of mandates.  Most people are going to wear masks, socially distance, etc. whether you tell them to or not.  Some people are going to go mask-less and hang out together in their homes regardless of what restrictions you put in place.  Looking back now, it seems obvious that the actions of the marginal person -- the two or three people who will wear masks if you make them but won't otherwise -- don't really matter much relative to the bigger things like the weather and even just random variance.
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I'm almost there, the only thing that gives me pause is I feel like I know a lot of people that will do whatever is necessary and nothing more, and thus their behavior is greatly affected by mandates.  These are go along to get along folks that may grumble about having to wear a mask, but just don't want to make waves or be viewed as a source of trouble or conflict.  I have a hunch that if you teleported these people to Florida they would not be wearing masks, but I suppose I have no way to prove that one way or the other, and there's no polling data or anything to guide how plentiful these folks are.

 
Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have been conducted to understand and characterize the relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 fomite transmission and evaluate the need for and effectiveness of prevention measures to reduce risk. Findings of these studies suggest that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection via the fomite transmission route is low, and generally less than 1 in 10,000, which means that each contact with a contaminated surface has less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of causing an infection
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CDC

(Have not read the three links attached in support yet but since i am totally biased toward believing this I am posting here before I do) 

 
This story, which I've seen in several locations now got my attention.  Read it if you get the chance and see if you agree with my take on it down below: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/546456-46-covid-19-cases-linked-to-one-indoor-bar-event-in-rural-illinois-cdc

You know what bugs me about the article?  It blames the outbreak on the bar opening, not the fact that five people-one who had already tested positive and four who had symptoms-attended.  How incredibly stupid and selfish is it to go to a bar when you have tested positive?  That's an outrage!  And the symptomatic people?  What excuse do they have?  The article is designed to make us think that we shouldn't open bars yet.  I get it.  But the fact that five people who should have been isolating is only worth a brief mention in paragraph eight?  Am I the only one who thinks this?

 
worrierking said:
This story, which I've seen in several locations now got my attention.  Read it if you get the chance and see if you agree with my take on it down below: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/546456-46-covid-19-cases-linked-to-one-indoor-bar-event-in-rural-illinois-cdc

You know what bugs me about the article?  It blames the outbreak on the bar opening, not the fact that five people-one who had already tested positive and four who had symptoms-attended.  How incredibly stupid and selfish is it to go to a bar when you have tested positive?  That's an outrage!  And the symptomatic people?  What excuse do they have?  The article is designed to make us think that we shouldn't open bars yet.  I get it.  But the fact that five people who should have been isolating is only worth a brief mention in paragraph eight?  Am I the only one who thinks this?
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:shrug:  Governments are capable of shutting down bars.  They can’t make stupid and selfish people stop being stupid and selfish.

 
worrierking said:
This story, which I've seen in several locations now got my attention.  Read it if you get the chance and see if you agree with my take on it down below: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/546456-46-covid-19-cases-linked-to-one-indoor-bar-event-in-rural-illinois-cdc

You know what bugs me about the article?  It blames the outbreak on the bar opening, not the fact that five people-one who had already tested positive and four who had symptoms-attended.  How incredibly stupid and selfish is it to go to a bar when you have tested positive?  That's an outrage!  And the symptomatic people?  What excuse do they have?  The article is designed to make us think that we shouldn't open bars yet.  I get it.  But the fact that five people who should have been isolating is only worth a brief mention in paragraph eight?  Am I the only one who thinks this?
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I agree with you of course, but I don't know that an article giving greater emphasis to that does anything. Unless there is a real solution to curbing the conduct of those people who may go to a venue, the venue is the issue.  

 
parasaurolophus said:
Lol in case anybody thinks the CDC was only incompetent because of the previous admin, after putting the above out they tweet this...
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:shrug: It's good advice still. While airborn seems to be the most common mode of transportation surface transmission can't be ruled out. So wash your hands and sanitizing things can only help. 

 
worrierking said:
This story, which I've seen in several locations now got my attention.  Read it if you get the chance and see if you agree with my take on it down below: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/546456-46-covid-19-cases-linked-to-one-indoor-bar-event-in-rural-illinois-cdc

You know what bugs me about the article?  It blames the outbreak on the bar opening, not the fact that five people-one who had already tested positive and four who had symptoms-attended.  How incredibly stupid and selfish is it to go to a bar when you have tested positive?  That's an outrage!  And the symptomatic people?  What excuse do they have?  The article is designed to make us think that we shouldn't open bars yet.  I get it.  But the fact that five people who should have been isolating is only worth a brief mention in paragraph eight?  Am I the only one who thinks this?
Click to expand...
How about how one of the bar attendees was a teacher that infected two kids and caused a school closing? 

How about how one of them was a nursing home employee that decided not to get vaccinated? 

 
top dog said:
:shrug: It's good advice still. While airborn seems to be the most common mode of transportation surface transmission can't be ruled out. So wash your hands and sanitizing things can only help. 
Click to expand...
No. It is terrible advice because of the fact that it was the only advice issued. Just look at the account. They didnt tweet any other mitigation steps yesterday. 

They went out of their way to tweet about washing hands and surfaces after releasing a report that says you have a 1 in 10,000 chance of getting covid from touching a surface that has the virus on it and they didnt issue any other guidance. In other words, yet again, they push hand washing and cleaning surfaces above all else. 

They also used a dumb phrase in "close contact". It isnt used consistently for obvious reasons. What they really mostly mean is close proximity, but they also do mean shaking hands or giving a hug. 

So no. It isnt good advice. We want hygiene theater to go away and be replaced with actual effective mitigation, like opening windows and doors and hepa filters. 

 
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