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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

20 hours ago, Godsbrother said:

Just got my second Moderna today.

I am perfectly fine wearing masks where I am asked to for now but I think that by the end of June most of the mask restrictions and social distance rules should be lifted, especially outdoors. 

22 hours after getting 2nd Moderna.  The wife and I both have headache, body aches, and tiredness.  I had a slight fever when I woke up but back to normal now, she is 100.1.   

From what I understand all of this is considered normal and is a sign the body is doing it's thing.   

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7 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

India is now solidly north of 200K+ new cases per day.  How is that even possible?  Sure, they have a lot of people, but goodness gracious.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/india-covid-cases-surge/?itid=hp-top-table-main

I commented in one of our COVID threads that my offshore team painted a bleak picture a couple weeks ago - vaccine mismanagement, lack of supplies and spiking case counts and hospitalization.  Potentially their saving grace is they might not have the same level of high risk people as we do here*
 

*this is a total guess on my part 

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Pretty solid news -- US was under 500 deaths yesterday.

Even more solid news -- This was actually the 3rd most in the world.  Many countries doing better.

Right now, it looks like Brazil and India are doing horribly but they look to be the exceptions.

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I follow cases in my local area (~3MM people) pretty closely.  After peaking at over 1600/day in January cases plummeted to around 400/day in late Feb and then bounced around there for the last two months. 

We're at around 50% of adults vaxxed now and in the last week the cases have turned down again.  And deaths/day is back under two.  I expect them to fall significantly over the next few weeks.  With any luck to the lowest levels since it ramped up a year ago.  I bet we start having days with zero fatalities soon.

Also talked to someone last night who mentioned that the vax hesitancy rate seems to be falling by about 4% a month.  i.e. every month there are about 4% fewer people saying they won't get a vax yet.  That will obviously hit a wall of never-vaxxers at some point, but it's encouraging for the places that are lagging behind.  They may still come around.

It's easy to lose sight of it in real time, but the fact that we have a super effective vaccine about a year after a new and deadly CV emerged is miraculous.  One of the GOAT achievements in medicine.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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I had a meeting yesterday with my boss and one co-worker.  Neither of these guys masked up, almost at all.  I don't really care to know why (I really don't want to get into talking politics at work).

Anyways, I realized I'm the only masked guy in the meeting, and I am fully vaxxed.  WTF am I doing?  What's the point?

If they were concerned about COVID and unvaccinated, they would be masked.  If they aren't going to wear a mask, then I'm not either.

That being said, if I'm around others wearing a mask, then I will - out of a courtesy more than anything else.

I think that will be my personal mask policy moving forward -  mirror those around me.

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My company had an in-person meeting with an outside group yesterday.  This was at a hotel, indoors, in an unventilated conference room.  I was on via Zoom.  No social-distancing, as people were just sitting next to each other like any other meeting, and nobody wore a mask.  I know that half the people on my team only had one shot.  The other group -- who knows -- some people were younger, and based on where they lived, they could be anti-vax . . . . Even though I am vaxxed, that would have made me uncomfortable.  Glad I didn't attend and put myself in an awkward situation.  Maybe in June/July I would feel more comfortable with that -- but maybe not without everyone vaxxed?

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22 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

It's easy to lose sight of it in real time, but the fact that we have a super effective vaccine about a year after a new and deadly CV emerged is miraculous.  One of the GOAT achievements in medicine.

I was just thinking about this issue on the drive into the office.  You look at what's going on in Brazil and India, and that could have easily been us if the vaccines had taken just a little longer to develop, or if our regulatory agencies had drug their feet just a little bit longer.  Obviously covid-19 was very bad (hot take), but it could have been so much worse and probably would have been that much worse if this had happened earlier in our lifetimes.

When people go back and study this, I hope there's a 9/11-type commission that makes plans for dealing with situations like this in the future and fixes some of the obvious mistakes that we made along the way.  My highly imperfect understanding is that with mRNA technology, we should really be better-positioned to handle a similar threat in the future.

Edit: Good article on what is happening in India: https://www.ft.com/content/683914a3-134f-40b6-989b-21e0ba1dc403

Edited by IvanKaramazov
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17 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

My company had an in-person meeting with an outside group yesterday.  This was at a hotel, indoors, in an unventilated conference room.  I was on via Zoom.  No social-distancing, as people were just sitting next to each other like any other meeting, and nobody wore a mask.  I know that half the people on my team only had one shot.  The other group -- who knows -- some people were younger, and based on where they lived, they could be anti-vax . . . . Even though I am vaxxed, that would have made me uncomfortable.  Glad I didn't attend and put myself in an awkward situation.  Maybe in June/July I would feel more comfortable with that -- but maybe not without everyone vaxxed?

You work for biogen? 

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I work for a health system (non clinical, TPS reports guy). This morning I log in and they are pushing out an advertisement for discounted basketball tickets for employees. My immediate response was wtf? Seems a little bit counter to a our message of continual distancing and safety for Covid. I realize things are improving but it seems like a big mistake to encourage people to attend mass events, and especially having that encouragement coming from a health system to its employees. I imagine I may be in the minority as I've been in the play it as safe as possible camp since early on.

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27 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

I work for a health system (non clinical, TPS reports guy). This morning I log in and they are pushing out an advertisement for discounted basketball tickets for employees. My immediate response was wtf? Seems a little bit counter to a our message of continual distancing and safety for Covid. I realize things are improving but it seems like a big mistake to encourage people to attend mass events, and especially having that encouragement coming from a health system to its employees. I imagine I may be in the minority as I've been in the play it as safe as possible camp since early on.

Counterpoint: We should be handing out free tickets to in-person sporting events, concerts, etc. at vaccination sites.  

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30 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

I work for a health system (non clinical, TPS reports guy). This morning I log in and they are pushing out an advertisement for discounted basketball tickets for employees. My immediate response was wtf? Seems a little bit counter to a our message of continual distancing and safety for Covid. I realize things are improving but it seems like a big mistake to encourage people to attend mass events, and especially having that encouragement coming from a health system to its employees. I imagine I may be in the minority as I've been in the play it as safe as possible camp since early on.

But is it a "mass event"? How many people are they letting in? Maybe some places are letting a lot of people in, but from what I've seen it's low capacity and masks are required. Seems safe enough, but I get that those who have played it as safe as possible might still be uneasy with it.

DC is letting fans into the Wizards game for the first time tonight. I think it's about 10% of capacity. Capitals will have about the same at their next home for the first time. Nationals, who play outdoors, have had a higher capacity, but still pretty low and masks required. I think DC United are going to have the same limitations as the Nationals.

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2 hours ago, dgreen said:

But is it a "mass event"? How many people are they letting in? Maybe some places are letting a lot of people in, but from what I've seen it's low capacity and masks are required. Seems safe enough, but I get that those who have played it as safe as possible might still be uneasy with it.

DC is letting fans into the Wizards game for the first time tonight. I think it's about 10% of capacity. Capitals will have about the same at their next home for the first time. Nationals, who play outdoors, have had a higher capacity, but still pretty low and masks required. I think DC United are going to have the same limitations as the Nationals.

I guess I was more shocked that it's coming from my employer. The same employer that sends it's chief nursing officer to news outlets to educate the public on safety. Just seems beyond counter intuitive.

As I'm typing this I'm sitting at ASU's Memorial Union because they are requiring in person yearly standardized testing, even for students who have been online (kid goes to ASU Digital Prep). Just seems dumb.

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2 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

We've about reached the point where appointments are just another barrier. Walk-in should start to be encouraged just about everywhere. 

Vaccine demand has dropped off drastically. We now have all the vaccines in stock but appointments are filling slower and slower. Our no-show rate has  skyrocketed lately to the point that we are scheduling extra appointments to get the shots we hope to give.

We are pretty much doing walk-ins for Pfizer at this point but it’s still important to draw enough people in. The problem with walk-ins is that you need to have enough additional people use all the doses. For Moderna that’s 9-10 more doses or 4-6 for Pfizer and J&J. That never used to be a problem but we’ve exhausted all the employees, neighboring businesses, friends and family. So we put out appointments and hope that the people that show up + walk ups is close to using up a full vial. Wasting of doses is becoming more common.

We recently switched over to Pfizer and everything has a expiration date on it. The big cooler that can be kept for 30 days at deep freeze temps, then we can move the doses to a regular freezer for 14 days and a regular fridge for 5 days. We’ve got doses in the freezer that need to be used by May 1st and the entire cooler (~1100 doses) before June 1st if we stretch it completely. The way we’re going right now, we’re going to struggle to find enough people to avoid having to waste a lot of doses.

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23 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

I guess I was more shocked that it's coming from my employer. The same employer that sends it's chief nursing officer to news outlets to educate the public on safety. Just seems beyond counter intuitive.

As I'm typing this I'm sitting at ASU's Memorial Union because they are requiring in person yearly standardized testing, even for students who have been online (kid goes to ASU Digital Prep). Just seems dumb.

I think things are about to get weird.  Relaxed restrictions, numbers still not great, vaccines easier to get, summer, covid-fatigue, covid-ptsd, etc. 

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3 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Vaccine demand has dropped off drastically. We now have all the vaccines in stock but appointments are filling slower and slower. Our no-show rate has  skyrocketed lately to the point that we are scheduling extra appointments to get the shots we hope to give.

We are pretty much doing walk-ins for Pfizer at this point but it’s still important to draw enough people in. The problem with walk-ins is that you need to have enough additional people use all the doses. For Moderna that’s 9-10 more doses or 4-6 for Pfizer and J&J. That never used to be a problem but we’ve exhausted all the employees, neighboring businesses, friends and family. So we put out appointments and hope that the people that show up + walk ups is close to using up a full vial. Wasting of doses is becoming more common.

We recently switched over to Pfizer and everything has a expiration date on it. The big cooler that can be kept for 30 days at deep freeze temps, then we can move the doses to a regular freezer for 14 days and a regular fridge for 5 days. We’ve got doses in the freezer that need to be used by May 1st and the entire cooler (~1100 doses) before June 1st if we stretch it completely. The way we’re going right now, we’re going to struggle to find enough people to avoid having to waste a lot of doses.

How much to give my 11 year old (12 in a month) the 2 dose Pfizer regimen? 😀

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5 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

I think things are about to get weird.  Relaxed restrictions, numbers still not great, vaccines easier to get, summer, covid-fatigue, covid-ptsd, etc. 

Agreed. My main issue is I see post after post of comments online where people are flat out saying I'm done. It's over. Like they can just will it out of existence. Like they have a say. The virus has no interest in your desires and that you "deserve" to go out and get on with things. Just going to prolong things when having caution for a few more months could make a huge difference.

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51 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Agreed. My main issue is I see post after post of comments online where people are flat out saying I'm done. It's over. Like they can just will it out of existence. Like they have a say. The virus has no interest in your desires and that you "deserve" to go out and get on with things. Just going to prolong things when having caution for a few more months could make a huge difference.

Baltimore City just equaled it's highest 7-day moving average for daily cases at 45/100k people.  I think people let off the gas too early here and relaxed their diligence in social distancing.  Mobility has crept up to about 80% of pre-COVID baseline.  So, I don't think it has much to do with masks, but rather people just getting together more.  This uptick came after the coldest and darkest months of the year, so it's not 100% weather related. 

The tracking website is really good (but loads slowly): https://coronavirus.baltimorecity.gov/ 

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1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

I think things are about to get weird.  Relaxed restrictions, numbers still not great, vaccines easier to get, summer, covid-fatigue, covid-ptsd, etc. 

A spike could happen, but with a vaccine out there available to all at risk people, the lethality should be far less than it was in previous spikes.

And if a large % of people refuse vaccines, there does reach a point where it’s tough to know what to do.  Does everyone have to wait around to interact and restart normal life because 30-40% of the population are scared of vaccines?  That’s a tough question.

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2 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

How much to give my 11 year old (12 in a month) the 2 dose Pfizer regimen? 😀

Well hopefully once he turns 12, Pfizer will be approved. I don’t think you can handle the asking price before that!

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4 hours ago, shader said:

A spike could happen, but with a vaccine out there available to all at risk people, the lethality should be far less than it was in previous spikes.

And if a large % of people refuse vaccines, there does reach a point where it’s tough to know what to do.  Does everyone have to wait around to interact and restart normal life because 30-40% of the population are scared of vaccines?  That’s a tough question.

No. Sorry but eff them. Majority wins. Common sense wins.  Once vaccine demand has completely waned and all that’s left are anti vaxxers, the rest of us move on and if you’re anti vaccine and you get COVID, tough ####. 

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On 4/20/2021 at 7:31 AM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

It's easy to lose sight of it in real time, but the fact that we have a super effective vaccine about a year after a new and deadly CV emerged is miraculous.  One of the GOAT achievements in medicine.

I’ve said this in other threads, but the only comparable breakthrough in our lifetimes was the development of antiretroviral therapy to treat HIV, which transformed infection from a death sentence to chronic disease, impacting lifespan comparably to treated diabetes. But that took over a decade!

Kudos to the scientists, businesses and public health officials who’ve coordinated the monumental effort to make rapid, effective vaccination a reality.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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11 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

Agreed. My main issue is I see post after post of comments online where people are flat out saying I'm done. It's over. Like they can just will it out of existence. Like they have a say. The virus has no interest in your desires and that you "deserve" to go out and get on with things. Just going to prolong things when having caution for a few more months could make a huge difference.

But we do actually have a say, now that vaccines are widely available.  My chances of getting covid-19 are trivially small at this point, and my chances of dying from covid-19 -- which is what really matters -- are basically zero.  Getting vaccinated is as close as you can get to willing covid out of existence.

This is good news, and it's perplexing to see people who seem unhappy about it.  It's great.

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3 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

But we do actually have a say, now that vaccines are widely available.  My chances of getting covid-19 are trivially small at this point, and my chances of dying from covid-19 -- which is what really matters -- are basically zero.  Getting vaccinated is as close as you can get to willing covid out of existence.

This is good news, and it's perplexing to see people who seem unhappy about it.  It's great.

Correct. Many seem afraid to move on. But the vaccine allows you to. 

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The New York Times 'The Morning' this AM is all about two questions I've had and know a lot of other people are trying to get right right now. I'm posting the whole thing here (it's not paywalled):

The chart halfway down was particularly interesting too.  Shows the risks of dying are right in line with the flu for kids under 18.  The caveat there is that it's only looking at the risks of dying, and COVID has a high rate of permanent or long-term damage.

Same chart shows that COVID is roughly 3-4x as deadly as the flu for people 65+ and ~7x as deadly for people 50-64.  And that's on top of an infection rate that's much higher than the flu.

Quote

Good morning. We’re looking at two Covid questions people may have heading into summer.

Should you still be wearing a mask outdoors? And how should you reorient your family’s life once the adults have been vaccinated but the children have not yet been?

Those are two Covid-19 questions on many people’s minds, and The Times has just published two stories that address them, based on interviews with experts. A common theme is that it’s OK to start making some changes to your behavior and loosening up in careful ways — or at least to begin thinking about it.

A mask outdoors?

On the issue of outdoor mask wearing, it helps to review a basic fact: There are few if any documented cases of brief outdoor interactions leading to Covid transmission. If you’re passing other people on a sidewalk or sitting near them on a park bench, the exposure of exhaled particles appears to be too small to lead to infection.

“Viral particles quickly disperse in outdoor air, and the risk of inhaling aerosolized virus from a jogger or passers-by are negligible,” my colleague Tara Parker-Pope writes, citing an interview she did with Linsey Marr of Virginia Tech. As Dr. Muge Cevik, an infectious-disease expert at the University of St. Andrews, says, outdoors is “not where the infection and transmission occurs.”

Still, why not try to eliminate even a minuscule potential risk and tell people to wear a mask at all times? Because that’s not an effective way to reduce overall risk. “I think the guidelines should be based on science and practicality,” Marr said. “People only have so much bandwidth to think about precautions.”

There are still important precautions to take, ones that are much more based in science than universal mask wearing. Unvaccinated people should wear masks when in close conversation with people outside their family — even outdoors — and should almost always wear a mask when indoors and not at home. Vaccinated people should continue to wear a mask in many indoor situations, to help contribute to a culture of mask wearing. It’s the decent thing to do when more than half of Americans still are not vaccinated.

Vaccinated adults, unvaccinated kids

The second question — about what activities unvaccinated children can resume — may be even thornier.

By early this summer, nearly every U.S. adult who wants to be vaccinated will have had the opportunity, but most children will not have gotten a shot. (For now, no children under 16 are eligible.) This combination will create complex decisions for many families — about whether to send children to day care, get together with friends and relatives, eat in restaurants or travel on airplanes, as I describe in an article for the Sunday Review section.

Some families will choose to remain extremely cautious. Others will decide to start resuming many activities. My central argument is that both decisions are grounded in science.

On the one hand, Covid is a new disease, with uncertain long-term effects, which argues for caution. On the other hand, the risks to children appear to be extremely low, which argues for a move toward normalcy. For most children, Covid presents no more risk than a normal flu season, the data suggests.

Chart

These charts compare the share of estimated Covid cases that have been fatal, by age group, with the estimated share of fatal flu cases. As you can see, Covid has exacted a brutal toll on adults, far worse than any flu season — but the picture for children is very different:

As with outdoor masks, extreme caution has its own downsides. Months of additional isolation would not be good for families, multiple studies have suggested. Isolation makes it harder for parents to return to work and harder for children to learn, develop social skills and be happy.

In the article, I quote two Covid experts who say that they will not keep their own children cooped up until they are vaccinated. “It’s really important to look at a child’s overall health rather than a Covid-only perspective,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, another expert, at Johns Hopkins University, said. If you let your children go to school during flu season, let them travel in a car or let them go swimming, you’re probably exposing them to more risk than Covid presents to them.

I understand why many people will continue to exercise more caution than the data suggests is necessary (and, to be clear, caution with children is vital until more adults have had the chance to get a vaccine). Covid has been horrible, arguably worse than any other infectious disease in living memory, and it is not over. “We’ve been so traumatized by all of this,” Gregg Gonsalves, a Yale epidemiologist, told Tara Parker-Pope. “I think we need to have a little bit of compassion for the people having trouble letting go.”

Compassion is a good concept. At this stage in the pandemic, different people are going to start making different decisions, and many of those decisions will be defensible. Before lashing out at behavior that is different from your own, maybe it’s worth pausing to ask whether compassion is the better response.

The full article has more details and charts about the trade-offs for children.

 

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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39 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

The New York Times 'The Morning' this AM is all about two questions I've had and know a lot of other people are trying to get right right now. I'm posting the whole thing here (it's not paywalled):

The chart halfway down was particularly interesting too.  Shows the risks of dying are right in line with the flu for kids under 18.  The caveat there is that it's only looking at the risks of dying, and COVID has a high rate of permanent or long-term damage.

Same chart shows that COVID is roughly 3-4x as deadly as the flu for people 65+ and ~7x as deadly for people 50-64.  And that's on top of an infection rate that's much higher than the flu.

 

Excellent article.  With a new virus and new vaccines, it's very difficult to have good data on risks and rewards.  People have a tendency to seek information that confirms their preconceived biases whether it be fear of vaccines, it's-no-worse-than-the-flu opinions, or we need to wear masks outdoors and sanitize playground equipment.  Data like this is how we get people and officials to make math and science based decisions.  

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Vaccinated people should continue to wear a mask in many indoor situations, to help contribute to a culture of mask wearing. It’s the decent thing to do when more than half of Americans still are not vaccinated.

The problem is, the people who refuse to vaccinate are often the same people who refuse to wear masks. I'm more than happy to continue wearing a mask around ANYONE that is also wearing a mask. I am not going to continue wearing a mask around anti-vaxers who refuse to wear masks.

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40 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Excellent article.  With a new virus and new vaccines, it's very difficult to have good data on risks and rewards. 

You don't see it so much on this board but on other boards, it's clear that A LOT of people don't have a mental off-ramp from the COVID pandemic. More people than we might think will be lifelong maskers in what will seem, in a few years, to be odd situations. A lot of people are petrified of ANY air that's not in their own homes -- being in the middle of a desert with no humans around for miles feels to them exactly as dangerous as working a crowded COVID ward without ventilation or PPE.

A lot of people also think vaccinated people are really not any safer than unvaccinated people -- "You can still catch COVID!" is a common refrain. It's too commonly thought that either the vaccine protection is perfect, sterilizing, and magic ... or else it basically doesn't count at all.

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11 hours ago, Scoresman said:

No. Sorry but eff them. Majority wins. Common sense wins.  Once vaccine demand has completely waned and all that’s left are anti vaxxers, the rest of us move on and if you’re anti vaccine and you get COVID, tough ####. 

I agree with this generally, just we are not there yet.  June-July.

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24 minutes ago, Doug B said:

You don't see it so much on this board but on other boards, it's clear that A LOT of people don't have a mental off-ramp from the COVID pandemic. More people than we might think will be lifelong maskers in what will seem, in a few years, to be odd situations. A lot of people are petrified of ANY air that's not in their own homes -- being in the middle of a desert with no humans around for miles feels to them exactly as dangerous as working a crowded COVID ward without ventilation or PPE.

A lot of people also think vaccinated people are really not any safer than unvaccinated people -- "You can still catch COVID!" is a common refrain. It's too commonly thought that either the vaccine protection is perfect, sterilizing, and magic ... or else it basically doesn't count at all.

I see it a ton on these boards too

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13 hours ago, Scoresman said:

No. Sorry but eff them. Majority wins. Common sense wins.  Once vaccine demand has completely waned and all that’s left are anti vaxxers, the rest of us move on and if you’re anti vaccine and you get COVID, tough ####. 

I think the difficulty is that the more people that are not vaccinated and who can pass the virus around, the greater chance for mutations/variants that could pierce the vaccination barrier. If that happens, it could put us back closer to square 1.

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Long Covid

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The health effects of Covid-19 not only can stretch for months but appear to increase the risk of death and chronic medical conditions, even in people who were never sick enough to be hospitalized, a large new study finds.

In the study, published Thursday in the journal Nature, researchers looked at medical records of more than 73,000 people across the United States whose coronavirus infections did not require hospitalization. Between one and six months after becoming infected, those patients had a significantly greater risk of death — 60 percent higher — than people who had not been infected with the virus.

These deaths, and the coming wave of them, won't be reported as COVID but they are.  Even if you're relatively young and healthy you really should do everything you can to avoid this infection. 

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On 4/20/2021 at 12:05 PM, gianmarco said:

Pretty solid news -- US was under 500 deaths yesterday.

Even more solid news -- This was actually the 3rd most in the world.  Many countries doing better.

Right now, it looks like Brazil and India are doing horribly but they look to be the exceptions.

Two more days in a row under 1K deaths (876 yesterday in US). 

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2 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

I think the difficulty is that the more people that are not vaccinated and who can pass the virus around, the greater chance for mutations/variants that could pierce the vaccination barrier. If that happens, it could put us back closer to square 1.

Unless we’re planning to close our borders, won’t this happen anyway from the billions of unvaccinated people in other countries?  

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One thing I cant wrap my head around. The CDC seems to be coming around to the fact that spreading this outdoors is VERY difficult. To the point they may change guidance to not require masks outdoors. Duh

Anyway, if that's the case, how did we have a second wave in the middle of the summer? Yet the flu dies out every year in the summer?

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10 minutes ago, jobarules said:

One thing I cant wrap my head around. The CDC seems to be coming around to the fact that spreading this outdoors is VERY difficult. To the point they may change guidance to not require masks outdoors. Duh

Anyway, if that's the case, how did we have a second wave in the middle of the summer? Yet the flu dies out every year in the summer?

Yeah I agree that the "standard" answer that summer in the south = lots of people gathering indoors because it is too hot doesn't really track with the regular flu season.  Whatever the cause of the seasonality of Covid, the next few weeks will be interesting as we are now at the time where rates started dropping fairly rapidly in the northern states in 2020.  Given that these are the states with the highest current rates and lots of people have been vaccinated, one could be hopeful that there will be a true crashing of the case and hospital rates imminently.

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33 minutes ago, jobarules said:

One thing I cant wrap my head around. The CDC seems to be coming around to the fact that spreading this outdoors is VERY difficult. To the point they may change guidance to not require masks outdoors. Duh

Anyway, if that's the case, how did we have a second wave in the middle of the summer? Yet the flu dies out every year in the summer?

This is not the flu?  Spreads easier.  Survives the heat and humidity better.  In the South, people are gathering more indoors due to the heat.

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1 minute ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

This is not the flu?  Spreads easier.  Survives the heat and humidity better.  In the South, people are gathering more indoors due to the heat.

No it doesn't survive the heat and humidity better. CDC basically admit it. If people gather more indoors due to the heat, how come flu season dies in summer?

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6 hours ago, Doug B said:

You don't see it so much on this board but on other boards, it's clear that A LOT of people don't have a mental off-ramp from the COVID pandemic. More people than we might think will be lifelong maskers in what will seem, in a few years, to be odd situations. A lot of people are petrified of ANY air that's not in their own homes -- being in the middle of a desert with no humans around for miles feels to them exactly as dangerous as working a crowded COVID ward without ventilation or PPE.

A lot of people also think vaccinated people are really not any safer than unvaccinated people -- "You can still catch COVID!" is a common refrain. It's too commonly thought that either the vaccine protection is perfect, sterilizing, and magic ... or else it basically doesn't count at all.

Honestly, I think most of those people are just virtue signaling.  Once it becomes a negative perception to wear a mask, they will stop wearing a mask too.   

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People generally gather inside all the time, year round, no matter where you live. Think offices, retail, gaming with friends, restaurant dining, coffeeshops, etc. I think the idea that "everyone's outside all the time in the summer!" is generally incorrect as a matter of degree -- it's not everyone and it's not all the time.

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44 minutes ago, jobarules said:

The CDC seems to be coming around to the fact that spreading this outdoors is VERY difficult. To the point they may change guidance to not require masks outdoors.

We know enough know that this statement:

     COVID does not spread outdoors

... is more correct than this statement

     COVID can potentially spread outdoors

Yes, yes ... all kinds of caveats and exceptions can be offered. But when you're talking in general about common-sense non-contrived outdoor situations ... COVID ain't gettin' spread.

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55 minutes ago, jobarules said:

One thing I cant wrap my head around. The CDC seems to be coming around to the fact that spreading this outdoors is VERY difficult. To the point they may change guidance to not require masks outdoors. Duh

Anyway, if that's the case, how did we have a second wave in the middle of the summer? Yet the flu dies out every year in the summer?

Easy answer here:  the flu has all but been eradicated by COVID countermeasures.  Confirmed flu cases are literally at almost zero and have been for months now.  COVID spreads miles and miles easier than the flu.

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1 minute ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Easy answer here:  the flu has all but been eradicated by COVID countermeasures.  Confirmed flu cases are literally at almost zero and have been for months now.  COVID spreads miles and miles easier than the flu.

Huh? Flu disappears EVERY SUMMER before Covid even existed.

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10 minutes ago, Doug B said:

We know enough know that this statement:

     COVID does not spread outdoors

... is more correct than this statement

     COVID can potentially spread outdoors

Yes, yes ... all kinds of caveats and exceptions can be offered. But when you're talking in general about common-sense non-contrived outdoor situations ... COVID ain't gettin' spread.

Agreed 100%

So how did it spread in the summer of 2020? Indoor gatherings. But how does the flu NOT spread in the summer of all other years prior to 2020 during those same indoor gatherings?

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19 minutes ago, jobarules said:

No it doesn't survive the heat and humidity better. CDC basically admit it. If people gather more indoors due to the heat, how come flu season dies in summer?

I don’t recall this ever being determined, and I don’t think it’s correct either.

Also, SARS-CoV-2 spreads more effectively than influenza under most (all?) conditions. Coupled with 100% of the population being susceptible (initially), it's not surprising it didn’t die off last summer.

It won’t disappear this summer either, but widespread vaccination + prior infection will certainly help in the US.

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19 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Honestly, I think most of those people are just virtue signaling.  Once it becomes a negative perception to wear a mask, they will stop wearing a mask too.   

Is it possible to do something virtuous without seeking attention for such action?

I think mask-wearing is more a function of genuine concern, desire to abide by rules and a little conformity. But I live a place where people behave differently than elsewhere in the US.

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