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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Godsbrother
Footballguy
22 hours after getting 2nd Moderna. The wife and I both have headache, body aches, and tiredness. I had a slight fever when I woke up but back to normal now, she is 100.1.
From what I understand all of this is considered normal and is a sign the body is doing it's thing.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
India is now solidly north of 200K+ new cases per day. How is that even possible? Sure, they have a lot of people, but goodness gracious.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/india-covid-cases-surge/?itid=hp-top-table-main
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/india-covid-cases-surge/?itid=hp-top-table-main
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I commented in one of our COVID threads that my offshore team painted a bleak picture a couple weeks ago - vaccine mismanagement, lack of supplies and spiking case counts and hospitalization. Potentially their saving grace is they might not have the same level of high risk people as we do here*
*this is a total guess on my part
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I follow cases in my local area (~3MM people) pretty closely. After peaking at over 1600/day in January cases plummeted to around 400/day in late Feb and then bounced around there for the last two months.
We're at around 50% of adults vaxxed now and in the last week the cases have turned down again. And deaths/day is back under two. I expect them to fall significantly over the next few weeks. With any luck to the lowest levels since it ramped up a year ago. I bet we start having days with zero fatalities soon.
Also talked to someone last night who mentioned that the vax hesitancy rate seems to be falling by about 4% a month. i.e. every month there are about 4% fewer people saying they won't get a vax yet. That will obviously hit a wall of never-vaxxers at some point, but it's encouraging for the places that are lagging behind. They may still come around.
It's easy to lose sight of it in real time, but the fact that we have a super effective vaccine about a year after a new and deadly CV emerged is miraculous. One of the GOAT achievements in medicine.
We're at around 50% of adults vaxxed now and in the last week the cases have turned down again. And deaths/day is back under two. I expect them to fall significantly over the next few weeks. With any luck to the lowest levels since it ramped up a year ago. I bet we start having days with zero fatalities soon.
Also talked to someone last night who mentioned that the vax hesitancy rate seems to be falling by about 4% a month. i.e. every month there are about 4% fewer people saying they won't get a vax yet. That will obviously hit a wall of never-vaxxers at some point, but it's encouraging for the places that are lagging behind. They may still come around.
It's easy to lose sight of it in real time, but the fact that we have a super effective vaccine about a year after a new and deadly CV emerged is miraculous. One of the GOAT achievements in medicine.
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moleculo
Footballguy
I had a meeting yesterday with my boss and one co-worker. Neither of these guys masked up, almost at all. I don't really care to know why (I really don't want to get into talking politics at work).
Anyways, I realized I'm the only masked guy in the meeting, and I am fully vaxxed. WTF am I doing? What's the point?
If they were concerned about COVID and unvaccinated, they would be masked. If they aren't going to wear a mask, then I'm not either.
That being said, if I'm around others wearing a mask, then I will - out of a courtesy more than anything else.
I think that will be my personal mask policy moving forward - mirror those around me.
Anyways, I realized I'm the only masked guy in the meeting, and I am fully vaxxed. WTF am I doing? What's the point?
If they were concerned about COVID and unvaccinated, they would be masked. If they aren't going to wear a mask, then I'm not either.
That being said, if I'm around others wearing a mask, then I will - out of a courtesy more than anything else.
I think that will be my personal mask policy moving forward - mirror those around me.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
My company had an in-person meeting with an outside group yesterday. This was at a hotel, indoors, in an unventilated conference room. I was on via Zoom. No social-distancing, as people were just sitting next to each other like any other meeting, and nobody wore a mask. I know that half the people on my team only had one shot. The other group -- who knows -- some people were younger, and based on where they lived, they could be anti-vax . . . . Even though I am vaxxed, that would have made me uncomfortable. Glad I didn't attend and put myself in an awkward situation. Maybe in June/July I would feel more comfortable with that -- but maybe not without everyone vaxxed?
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I was just thinking about this issue on the drive into the office. You look at what's going on in Brazil and India, and that could have easily been us if the vaccines had taken just a little longer to develop, or if our regulatory agencies had drug their feet just a little bit longer. Obviously covid-19 was very bad (hot take), but it could have been so much worse and probably would have been that much worse if this had happened earlier in our lifetimes.Dinsy Ejotuz said:
When people go back and study this, I hope there's a 9/11-type commission that makes plans for dealing with situations like this in the future and fixes some of the obvious mistakes that we made along the way. My highly imperfect understanding is that with mRNA technology, we should really be better-positioned to handle a similar threat in the future.
Edit: Good article on what is happening in India: https://www.ft.com/content/683914a3-134f-40b6-989b-21e0ba1dc403
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
You work for biogen?Leeroy Jenkins said:
skol asylum
Footballguy
I work for a health system (non clinical, TPS reports guy). This morning I log in and they are pushing out an advertisement for discounted basketball tickets for employees. My immediate response was wtf? Seems a little bit counter to a our message of continual distancing and safety for Covid. I realize things are improving but it seems like a big mistake to encourage people to attend mass events, and especially having that encouragement coming from a health system to its employees. I imagine I may be in the minority as I've been in the play it as safe as possible camp since early on.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Counterpoint: We should be handing out free tickets to in-person sporting events, concerts, etc. at vaccination sites.
dgreen
Footballguy
But is it a "mass event"? How many people are they letting in? Maybe some places are letting a lot of people in, but from what I've seen it's low capacity and masks are required. Seems safe enough, but I get that those who have played it as safe as possible might still be uneasy with it.
DC is letting fans into the Wizards game for the first time tonight. I think it's about 10% of capacity. Capitals will have about the same at their next home for the first time. Nationals, who play outdoors, have had a higher capacity, but still pretty low and masks required. I think DC United are going to have the same limitations as the Nationals.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
We've about reached the point where appointments are just another barrier. Walk-in should start to be encouraged just about everywhere.
skol asylum
Footballguy
I guess I was more shocked that it's coming from my employer. The same employer that sends it's chief nursing officer to news outlets to educate the public on safety. Just seems beyond counter intuitive.
As I'm typing this I'm sitting at ASU's Memorial Union because they are requiring in person yearly standardized testing, even for students who have been online (kid goes to ASU Digital Prep). Just seems dumb.
Vaccine demand has dropped off drastically. We now have all the vaccines in stock but appointments are filling slower and slower. Our no-show rate has skyrocketed lately to the point that we are scheduling extra appointments to get the shots we hope to give.
We are pretty much doing walk-ins for Pfizer at this point but it’s still important to draw enough people in. The problem with walk-ins is that you need to have enough additional people use all the doses. For Moderna that’s 9-10 more doses or 4-6 for Pfizer and J&J. That never used to be a problem but we’ve exhausted all the employees, neighboring businesses, friends and family. So we put out appointments and hope that the people that show up + walk ups is close to using up a full vial. Wasting of doses is becoming more common.
We recently switched over to Pfizer and everything has a expiration date on it. The big cooler that can be kept for 30 days at deep freeze temps, then we can move the doses to a regular freezer for 14 days and a regular fridge for 5 days. We’ve got doses in the freezer that need to be used by May 1st and the entire cooler (~1100 doses) before June 1st if we stretch it completely. The way we’re going right now, we’re going to struggle to find enough people to avoid having to waste a lot of doses.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I think things are about to get weird. Relaxed restrictions, numbers still not great, vaccines easier to get, summer, covid-fatigue, covid-ptsd, etc.
skol asylum
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
Agreed. My main issue is I see post after post of comments online where people are flat out saying I'm done. It's over. Like they can just will it out of existence. Like they have a say. The virus has no interest in your desires and that you "deserve" to go out and get on with things. Just going to prolong things when having caution for a few more months could make a huge difference.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Baltimore City just equaled it's highest 7-day moving average for daily cases at 45/100k people. I think people let off the gas too early here and relaxed their diligence in social distancing. Mobility has crept up to about 80% of pre-COVID baseline. So, I don't think it has much to do with masks, but rather people just getting together more. This uptick came after the coldest and darkest months of the year, so it's not 100% weather related.
The tracking website is really good (but loads slowly): https://coronavirus.baltimorecity.gov/
shader
Footballguy
A spike could happen, but with a vaccine out there available to all at risk people, the lethality should be far less than it was in previous spikes.
And if a large % of people refuse vaccines, there does reach a point where it’s tough to know what to do. Does everyone have to wait around to interact and restart normal life because 30-40% of the population are scared of vaccines? That’s a tough question.
Well hopefully once he turns 12, Pfizer will be approved. I don’t think you can handle the asking price before that!How much to give my 11 year old (12 in a month) the 2 dose Pfizer regimen?
Scoresman
Footballguy
No. Sorry but eff them. Majority wins. Common sense wins. Once vaccine demand has completely waned and all that’s left are anti vaxxers, the rest of us move on and if you’re anti vaccine and you get COVID, tough ####.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I’ve said this in other threads, but the only comparable breakthrough in our lifetimes was the development of antiretroviral therapy to treat HIV, which transformed infection from a death sentence to chronic disease, impacting lifespan comparably to treated diabetes. But that took over a decade!Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Kudos to the scientists, businesses and public health officials who’ve coordinated the monumental effort to make rapid, effective vaccination a reality.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
But we do actually have a say, now that vaccines are widely available. My chances of getting covid-19 are trivially small at this point, and my chances of dying from covid-19 -- which is what really matters -- are basically zero. Getting vaccinated is as close as you can get to willing covid out of existence.
This is good news, and it's perplexing to see people who seem unhappy about it. It's great.
shader
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The New York Times 'The Morning' this AM is all about two questions I've had and know a lot of other people are trying to get right right now. I'm posting the whole thing here (it's not paywalled):
The chart halfway down was particularly interesting too. Shows the risks of dying are right in line with the flu for kids under 18. The caveat there is that it's only looking at the risks of dying, and COVID has a high rate of permanent or long-term damage.
Same chart shows that COVID is roughly 3-4x as deadly as the flu for people 65+ and ~7x as deadly for people 50-64. And that's on top of an infection rate that's much higher than the flu.
The chart halfway down was particularly interesting too. Shows the risks of dying are right in line with the flu for kids under 18. The caveat there is that it's only looking at the risks of dying, and COVID has a high rate of permanent or long-term damage.
Same chart shows that COVID is roughly 3-4x as deadly as the flu for people 65+ and ~7x as deadly for people 50-64. And that's on top of an infection rate that's much higher than the flu.
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worrierking
Footballguy
Excellent article. With a new virus and new vaccines, it's very difficult to have good data on risks and rewards. People have a tendency to seek information that confirms their preconceived biases whether it be fear of vaccines, it's-no-worse-than-the-flu opinions, or we need to wear masks outdoors and sanitize playground equipment. Data like this is how we get people and officials to make math and science based decisions.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
The problem is, the people who refuse to vaccinate are often the same people who refuse to wear masks. I'm more than happy to continue wearing a mask around ANYONE that is also wearing a mask. I am not going to continue wearing a mask around anti-vaxers who refuse to wear masks.
Doug B
Footballguy
You don't see it so much on this board but on other boards, it's clear that A LOT of people don't have a mental off-ramp from the COVID pandemic. More people than we might think will be lifelong maskers in what will seem, in a few years, to be odd situations. A lot of people are petrified of ANY air that's not in their own homes -- being in the middle of a desert with no humans around for miles feels to them exactly as dangerous as working a crowded COVID ward without ventilation or PPE.
A lot of people also think vaccinated people are really not any safer than unvaccinated people -- "You can still catch COVID!" is a common refrain. It's too commonly thought that either the vaccine protection is perfect, sterilizing, and magic ... or else it basically doesn't count at all.
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Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think the difficulty is that the more people that are not vaccinated and who can pass the virus around, the greater chance for mutations/variants that could pierce the vaccination barrier. If that happens, it could put us back closer to square 1.Scoresman said:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Long Covid
These deaths, and the coming wave of them, won't be reported as COVID but they are. Even if you're relatively young and healthy you really should do everything you can to avoid this infection.
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fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Unless we’re planning to close our borders, won’t this happen anyway from the billions of unvaccinated people in other countries?
One thing I cant wrap my head around. The CDC seems to be coming around to the fact that spreading this outdoors is VERY difficult. To the point they may change guidance to not require masks outdoors. Duh
Anyway, if that's the case, how did we have a second wave in the middle of the summer? Yet the flu dies out every year in the summer?
Anyway, if that's the case, how did we have a second wave in the middle of the summer? Yet the flu dies out every year in the summer?
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
Yeah I agree that the "standard" answer that summer in the south = lots of people gathering indoors because it is too hot doesn't really track with the regular flu season. Whatever the cause of the seasonality of Covid, the next few weeks will be interesting as we are now at the time where rates started dropping fairly rapidly in the northern states in 2020. Given that these are the states with the highest current rates and lots of people have been vaccinated, one could be hopeful that there will be a true crashing of the case and hospital rates imminently.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
This is not the flu? Spreads easier. Survives the heat and humidity better. In the South, people are gathering more indoors due to the heat.
No it doesn't survive the heat and humidity better. CDC basically admit it. If people gather more indoors due to the heat, how come flu season dies in summer?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Honestly, I think most of those people are just virtue signaling. Once it becomes a negative perception to wear a mask, they will stop wearing a mask too.Doug B said:
Doug B
Footballguy
People generally gather inside all the time, year round, no matter where you live. Think offices, retail, gaming with friends, restaurant dining, coffeeshops, etc. I think the idea that "everyone's outside all the time in the summer!" is generally incorrect as a matter of degree -- it's not everyone and it's not all the time.
Doug B
Footballguy
We know enough know that this statement:
COVID does not spread outdoors
... is more correct than this statement
COVID can potentially spread outdoors
Yes, yes ... all kinds of caveats and exceptions can be offered. But when you're talking in general about common-sense non-contrived outdoor situations ... COVID ain't gettin' spread.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Easy answer here: the flu has all but been eradicated by COVID countermeasures. Confirmed flu cases are literally at almost zero and have been for months now. COVID spreads miles and miles easier than the flu.
Agreed 100%
So how did it spread in the summer of 2020? Indoor gatherings. But how does the flu NOT spread in the summer of all other years prior to 2020 during those same indoor gatherings?
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I don’t recall this ever being determined, and I don’t think it’s correct either.
Also, SARS-CoV-2 spreads more effectively than influenza under most (all?) conditions. Coupled with 100% of the population being susceptible (initially), it's not surprising it didn’t die off last summer.
It won’t disappear this summer either, but widespread vaccination + prior infection will certainly help in the US.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Right. And it didn't come back in the winter. Flu cases have been flatlined at nearly zero for over a year now.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Is it possible to do something virtuous without seeking attention for such action?
I think mask-wearing is more a function of genuine concern, desire to abide by rules and a little conformity. But I live a place where people behave differently than elsewhere in the US.
