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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

culdeus said:
I know this is inviting the "wait two weeks" crowd, but one thing that is very different from this surge is that deaths are not tracking like they used to.  I think the 65+ crowd has enough shots in them, and got their shots before FoxNews told them not to that it's helping the death rate tremendously.  

The death rate is SO low that people are now doubting it in Texas.  

That being said the hospitalization rate is surging with the 40-50s crowd right now, and that can have a longer pole than the two weeks to a body bag.  Even children's hospitals are struggling with spaces.  It's just they are all for the most part walking out eventually.     

Put it this way, the last two surges that had a >10k daily caseload were already seeing daily deaths in the 200+ reported by the time the caseload reached 10k.  This time around.  10.   
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You have to take into account the first surges.  Comparing surges is not apples to apples.  Many died during them.  Probably many of the most high risk too.

 
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[icon] said:
Does this create a plausible case that Moderna offers increased defense as protection wanes vs Delta? 
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Some FYI that's purely anectodal here, but I'll offer my 2 cents on this one. My cluster of friends/acquaintances frequent a local Moose lodge in central Florida. We're majority retired veterans and older than 55 for the most part.  We feel comfortable at the lodge because of its large square footage that gives everyone plenty of space to distance themselves.  There's also a large outside area/bar that accomodates the smokers.   It's the only place where I do any socializing if I go out at all.

Vets that got vaccinated at the Brevard County VA(myself included) were administered the Moderna shot.  Several went to the Orlando site and received the J&J or Pfizer versions. Out of approximately 45-50 folks we've had 17 breakthrough infections as of this weekend, and none of them were Moderna. Also no serious symptoms.  Of course, this isn't any kind of proof one way or the other; just thought I'd share. 

 
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Curious to get your guys' take on this situation: Took our 6 y.o. to an evaluation session at a gymastics studio yesterday. (He's on the autism spectrum and the woman who runs the place came highly recommended). An hour before the class, I called to see if we needed to bring anything special, and she said, "By the way, I usually don't wear a mask, but I will if you prefer." I told her we would like her to wear one.

So we get to the gym and as we're getting started, she asks my wife if we want our son to wear his mask. My wife says, "Are you vaccinated?" She says she's not, and starts going into the shpiel about how that's personal medical information, etc. My wife stops her and just says, "OK, then we want him to wear a mask."

Class went fine, she did a good job, kid seemed to like it. But the vax thing is still a concern. It's not even so much that she's unvaxxed as that she appears to be anti-vax. It's pretty clear that if we hadn't insisted on masks, she would have been fine doing the whole class with no one wearing masks. So how many other people is she hanging out with throughout the day who are also unmasked and unvaxxed?

I know the risk to my wife and I, who are vaxxed, and our son, who is only six, is pretty minimal. And as my wife pointed out, we've been sending him to day camp all summer despite not knowing the vaccination status of any of the counselors. But with Delta, we're definitely more nervous.

There's also the question of whether it's worth standing on principle and telling business owners, "You have the right not to get vaxxed, but it may end up costing you business." Maybe messages like that will nudge more people to get the shot.

 
IC FBGCav said:
You have to take into account the first surges.  Comparing surges is not apples to apples.  Many died during them.  Probably many of the most high risk too.
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I realized at some point during the pandemic that looking at deaths by state is almost useless. The NY-NJ numbers are so heavily skewed by what happened in the spring of 2020. Not to defend Cuomo's many missteps, but the worst of that surge was seeded before anyone had any real idea what we were dealing with. 

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Curious to get your guys' take on this situation: Took our 6 y.o. to an evaluation session at a gymastics studio yesterday. (He's on the autism spectrum and the woman who runs the place came highly recommended). An hour before the class, I called to see if we needed to bring anything special, and she said, "By the way, I usually don't wear a mask, but I will if you prefer." I told her we would like her to wear one.

So we get to the gym and as we're getting started, she asks my wife if we want our son to wear his mask. My wife says, "Are you vaccinated?" She says she's not, and starts going into the shpiel about how that's personal medical information, etc. My wife stops her and just says, "OK, then we want him to wear a mask."

Class went fine, she did a good job, kid seemed to like it. But the vax thing is still a concern. It's not even so much that she's unvaxxed as that she appears to be anti-vax. It's pretty clear that if we hadn't insisted on masks, she would have been fine doing the whole class with no one wearing masks. So how many other people is she hanging out with throughout the day who are also unmasked and unvaxxed?

I know the risk to my wife and I, who are vaxxed, and our son, who is only six, is pretty minimal. And as my wife pointed out, we've been sending him to day camp all summer despite not knowing the vaccination status of any of the counselors. But with Delta, we're definitely more nervous.

There's also the question of whether it's worth standing on principle and telling business owners, "You have the right not to get vaxxed, but it may end up costing you business." Maybe messages like that will nudge more people to get the shot.
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I probably wouldnt be comfortable with it unless the sessions were outdoors.  Not only is she unvaxed, she doesnt seem to be down with wearing masks in higher risk situations.  If your unvaxed son werent in the equation i would be more comfortable. 

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Curious to get your guys' take on this situation: Took our 6 y.o. to an evaluation session at a gymastics studio yesterday. (He's on the autism spectrum and the woman who runs the place came highly recommended). An hour before the class, I called to see if we needed to bring anything special, and she said, "By the way, I usually don't wear a mask, but I will if you prefer." I told her we would like her to wear one.

So we get to the gym and as we're getting started, she asks my wife if we want our son to wear his mask. My wife says, "Are you vaccinated?" She says she's not, and starts going into the shpiel about how that's personal medical information, etc. My wife stops her and just says, "OK, then we want him to wear a mask."

Class went fine, she did a good job, kid seemed to like it. But the vax thing is still a concern. It's not even so much that she's unvaxxed as that she appears to be anti-vax. It's pretty clear that if we hadn't insisted on masks, she would have been fine doing the whole class with no one wearing masks. So how many other people is she hanging out with throughout the day who are also unmasked and unvaxxed?

I know the risk to my wife and I, who are vaxxed, and our son, who is only six, is pretty minimal. And as my wife pointed out, we've been sending him to day camp all summer despite not knowing the vaccination status of any of the counselors. But with Delta, we're definitely more nervous.

There's also the question of whether it's worth standing on principle and telling business owners, "You have the right not to get vaxxed, but it may end up costing you business." Maybe messages like that will nudge more people to get the shot.
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I would not send my kids there. 

 
PinkydaPimp said:
I probably wouldnt be comfortable with it unless the sessions were outdoors.  Not only is she unvaxed, she doesnt seem to be down with wearing masks in higher risk situations.  If your unvaxed son werent in the equation i would be more comfortable. 
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Yeah, no chance of it being outside. The other thing that occurred to me is that the repeated exposure makes it worse. I wasn't totally freaked out at doing that one session after learning she was unvaxxed, but sending him back there once or twice a week just seems to be tempting fate.

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Yeah, no chance of it being outside. The other thing that occurred to me is that the repeated exposure makes it worse. I wasn't totally freaked out at doing that one session after learning she was unvaxxed, but sending him back there once or twice a week just seems to be tempting fate.
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Will she wear an n95 mask?  I think id be ok if she would and then i would offer to purchase some for her.  Otherwise, definitely not.

 
Another sad story from the pharmacy. One of our regular customers called today and said him and his wife ‘have COVID bad’ and have been in and out of the hospital the last week. And while he says they are doing better, his labored breathing suggested otherwise. The significance is that we’ve been actively trying to convince him to get vaccinated. He was open to it and seemed ready. We even gave him the forms for him and his wife to fill out but he continued to drag his feet.

Then I thought about his comment about being in and out of the hospital the last week and thought about the last time I saw him and sure enough it was last Monday and he was picking up scripts that would treat COVID symptoms. He doesn’t wear a mask and was with his elderly father. I’ve been wearing my mask most of the time at work but can’t remember if I was with him.

One trend that I’ve noticed lately are a lot of patients getting scripts sent in from teladocs treating respiratory symptoms, essentially what early COVID symptoms are being described as. Since they are virtual, I’m guessing most aren’t getting tested. Gotta think that the case courts are many times bigger than what’s being reported.

We have seen an uptick in vaccines given but for us it has been mainly kids just before school starts. We have gotten some who have been hesitant but more for needle fears than anti-vax positions. I think mandates are the only thing that will get them vaccinated.

 
Maggot Brain said:
Some FYI that's purely anectodal here, but I'll offer my 2 cents on this one. My cluster of friends/acquaintances frequent a local Moose lodge in central Florida. We're majority retired veterans and older than 55 for the most part.  We feel comfortable at the lodge because of its large square footage that gives everyone plenty of space to distance themselves.  There's also a large outside area/bar that accomodates the smokers.   It's the only place where I do any socializing if I go out at all.

Vets that got vaccinated at the Brevard County VA(myself included) were administered the Moderna shot.  Several went to the Orlando site and received the J&J or Pfizer versions. Out of approximately 45-50 folks we've had 17 breakthrough infections as of this weekend, and none of them were Moderna. Also no serious symptoms.  Of course, this isn't any kind of proof one way or the other; just thought I'd share. 
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Very interesting... 

Love the moose lodge on Bradenton Beach. Prime location on the beach... Amazing wings (that black pepper :wub: ) and great prices on beers. :banned:  

 
DallasDMac said:
The fact people think there are only two outcomes, dead or not dead, is about 99% of the problem.
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most people in this dumb country are literally incapable of doing any kind of personal risk assessments. That’s why we have people dying because they wouldn’t take a vaccine that is thousands of times safer than getting covid. 

 
Capella said:
most people in this dumb country are literally incapable of doing any kind of personal risk assessments. That’s why we have people dying because they wouldn’t take a vaccine that is thousands of times safer than getting covid. 
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98% Case Fatality Rate = "LOL only 2% die, dum Sheep"
99.999% Survival rate among vaxxed folks (CDC) = "ZOMG VAX R FAIL! TOLD U!1!"

 
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The ####show that's emerging down in FL is getting spooky with my family down there. 

Brother/SIL/Nieces (Grade school age) still unvaxxed in Palm City. Bro only one with confirmed previous infection that had him on his back good... PulseOX ~93-94%. 

Folks (72yo) both previously infected late 2020 + fully vaxxed April 2020 (Moderna or Pfizer, the former I think). 

 
About a month before I got the vax, I had bought a 10-pack of disposable KF94 masks. I used them on days I had to go into the office, and then used my basic cloth ones on days when I was home, running errands, etc. Once I got vaxxed, I just started using the cloth ones all the time.

Today I placed another order for the KF94s to wear on in-office days. Sigh.

(Side note: Last time I assumed that "disposable" meant I had to throw away the mask after a full-day's use. I've since learned that's not necessarily the case, and if you air them out properly they can be reused. I figure with 10 masks and going into the office three times a week, that means if I wear an individual mask once, I can let it air out for another three weeks before I'll need it again. Am I right or is this crazy talk?)

 
My new neighbors a few houses down went to Disneyland, unvaxxed and unmasked. They then threw a bbq in their backyard last week with 4 other families.  Two of the other families who I never hang out with were apparently also unvaxxed. So far 10 people who were at the bbq have tested positive (6 adults and 4 teenagers). All of them were unvaxxed while the other two families who I do spend time with were vaccinated and have so far tested negative. The only unvaxxed to escape testing positive were 5 kids under the age of 7.  Everyone who was vaccinated has tested negative so far  

The family that went to Disneyland is in rough shape. All 4 of them are in the hospital right now because they couldn’t breathe, and the wife is a smoker. So incredibly reckless. My other neighbors are really pissed because they just assumed they were vaccinated since they are all police officers. The only positive is that this whole ordeal has convinced an antivaxxer family on my street to finally get the vaccine. 

 
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ignatiusjreilly said:
About a month before I got the vax, I had bought a 10-pack of disposable KF94 masks. I used them on days I had to go into the office, and then used my basic cloth ones on days when I was home, running errands, etc. Once I got vaxxed, I just started using the cloth ones all the time.

Today I placed another order for the KF94s to wear on in-office days. Sigh.

(Side note: Last time I assumed that "disposable" meant I had to throw away the mask after a full-day's use. I've since learned that's not necessarily the case, and if you air them out properly they can be reused. I figure with 10 masks and going into the office three times a week, that means if I wear an individual mask once, I can let it air out for another three weeks before I'll need it again. Am I right or is this crazy talk?)
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IMO unless you're in a very high risk environment or have a known direct exposure, a mask can be reused after a couple days of sitting out. Sunlight is helpful here. COVID doesn't have a very long life on soft fabrics let alone in direct sunlight. 

I've been rotating through the same 5 or so disposable masks for a good bit of this pandemic. No issues thus far. 

Now, if you're in a hospital, or go to a crowded place like an airport or concert... or happen to be around someone who is known postitive.... I'd dispose of the mask after one use to be safe. 

EDIT to add Link: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/surface-transmission.html

Surface survival

Numerous researchers have studied how long SARS-CoV-2 can survive on a variety of porous and non-porous surfaces 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. On porous surfaces, studies report inability to detect viable virus within minutes to hours; on non-porous surfaces, viable virus can be detected for days to weeks. The apparent, relatively faster inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 on porous compared with non-porous surfaces might be attributable to capillary action within pores and faster aerosol droplet evaporation 16.

Data from surface survival studies indicate that a 99% reduction in infectious SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses can be expected under typical indoor environmental conditions within 3 days (72 hours) on common non-porous surfaces like stainless steel, plastic, and glass 10, 11, 12, 13, 15. However, experimental conditions on both porous and non-porous surfaces do not necessarily reflect real-world conditions, such as initial virus amount (e.g., viral load in respiratory droplets) and factors that can remove or degrade the virus, such as ventilation and changing environmental conditions 8, 9. They also do not account for inefficiencies in transfer of the virus between surfaces to hands and from hands to mouth, nose, and eyes 8, 9. In fact, laboratory studies try to optimize the recovery of viruses from surfaces (e.g., purposefully swabbing the surface multiple times or soaking the contaminated surface in viral transport medium before swabbing). When accounting for both surface survival data and real-world transmission factors, the risk of fomite transmission after a person with COVID-19 has been in an indoor space is minor after 3 days (72 hours), regardless of when it was last cleaned 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15.
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[icon] said:
The ####show that's emerging down in FL is getting spooky with my family down there. 

Brother/SIL/Nieces (Grade school age) still unvaxxed in Palm City. Bro only one with confirmed previous infection that had him on his back good... PulseOX ~93-94%. 

Folks (72yo) both previously infected late 2020 + fully vaxxed April 2020 (Moderna or Pfizer, the former I think). 
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My wife's aunt is in the hospital with it.  Her husband, two sons, one of their wives and their son all have it.  The other wife is 26 weeks pregnant with their fist child...no idea if she has it yet or not.  Husband and one of the sons continues to go to work (own a gas/service/tire station) and haven't even considered NOT going to work.  None of them are vaccinated.  It's a special breed of people here in this state for sure.  

 
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The Commish said:
My wife's aunt is in the hospital with it.  Her husband, two sons, one of their wives and their son all have it.  Husband and one of the sons continues to go to work (own a gas/service/tire station) and haven't even considered NOT going to work.  None of them are vaccinated.  It's a special breed of people here in this state for sure.  
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Jesus. I 100% get the need to make ends meet, but knowingly working while contagious during a pandemic should be a crime, no? 

I mean, i get that in Florida that might get a personal high-five from Desantis, and a key to the city.... but in NORMAL places, that should be a crime, no? :lol:  

 
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[icon] said:
Jesus. I 100% get the need to make ends meet, but knowingly working while contagious during a pandemic should be a crime, no? 
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You'd think.  But alas, here we are.  Of course in this state it's a badge of honor if you're walking around without a mask on cuz FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Husband isn't convinced that COVID is real....thinks his fever is something else.

 
The Commish said:
You'd think.  But alas, here we are.  Of course in this state it's a badge of honor if you're walking around without a mask on cuz FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Husband isn't convinced that COVID is real....thinks his fever is something else.
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Wait.. he's tested positive and still doesn't believe it? 

Amazing.... What has this country come to? :lol:  

 
The Commish said:
You'd think.  But alas, here we are.  Of course in this state it's a badge of honor if you're walking around without a mask on cuz FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Husband isn't convinced that COVID is real....thinks his fever is something else.
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I’m waiting to leave Denver right now headed for Tampa. Can’t wait to get back to the insanity. MURICA

 
Moe. said:
Will we ever get to a point where there is a vaccine for kids? 
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Hopefully soon.  Then we can move on to arguing about whether vaccinated adults should have to wear masks to protect the children of anti-vax parents.  I'm looking forward to that one.

 
culdeus said:
That ship sailed when they are pushing to re-titer the formulations.  There's a small chance someone other than Pfizer can win the race to <12.  
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Yeah, after I posted I realized I hadn't heard anything late.  Checking with someone who should have a decent idea and will share if anything comes back.

 
Seriously, I'd be interested in reading an explainer for why pediatric vaccine trials didn't take place alongside adult trials.  I'm sure there's a solid reason (not sarcasm), but I just don't know what it is.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Seriously, I'd be interested in reading an explainer for why pediatric vaccine trials didn't take place alongside adult trials.  I'm sure there's a solid reason (not sarcasm), but I just don't know what it is.  
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Weight is variable.  They need to determine what an appropriate dose is across a wide weight range.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Seriously, I'd be interested in reading an explainer for why pediatric vaccine trials didn't take place alongside adult trials.  I'm sure there's a solid reason (not sarcasm), but I just don't know what it is.  
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Agreed.  I'd be curious if the rollout would have been different if children were having negative outcomes more in line with the general population.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Seriously, I'd be interested in reading an explainer for why pediatric vaccine trials didn't take place alongside adult trials.  I'm sure there's a solid reason (not sarcasm), but I just don't know what it is.  
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I think because children's immune systems are different. Plus I think you want to do be "safe" before switching to kids, plus at the time children were very low carriers

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Seriously, I'd be interested in reading an explainer for why pediatric vaccine trials didn't take place alongside adult trials.  I'm sure there's a solid reason (not sarcasm), but I just don't know what it is.  
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Not an expert, but my impression was that a) it's generally a good idea to ensure that a new treatment is safe for adults before testing it on children, and b) it's much harder to get parents to volunteer their children for trials. And of course, the two are related; if parents are reassured that it's safe they're more likely to let their children participate 

 
Just here to rant, sorry.

The anti-maskers are not going to change their minds.

The anti-vaxxers are not going to change their minds.

This is our world now.

I got the vaccine as a precaution.  I trust science.  I am 50-50 on masks.  I don't think the ones the general public wear are doing much.  I wear one when I must (airports, etc.) but good God, if I can fling the thing off an eat inside a restaurant, why was I wearing one in Target?  The mask thing confuses me.  Maybe I'm an idiot and/or not interpreting what I'm reading right.  

I am just so sick of all of this.  I feel terrible for my kids.  I feel terrible for myself, who is in a "strange spot" relationship-wise... so... I'm a social person and NEED interaction.  If we go back to full lockdowns and "Zoom Happy Hours", I am going to find myself in a deep, dark place.

 
nirad3 said:
Just here to rant, sorry.

The anti-maskers are not going to change their minds.

The anti-vaxxers are not going to change their minds.

This is our world now.

I got the vaccine as a precaution.  I trust science.  I am 50-50 on masks.  I don't think the ones the general public wear are doing much.  I wear one when I must (airports, etc.) but good God, if I can fling the thing off an eat inside a restaurant, why was I wearing one in Target?  The mask thing confuses me.  Maybe I'm an idiot and/or not interpreting what I'm reading right.  

I am just so sick of all of this.  I feel terrible for my kids.  I feel terrible for myself, who is in a "strange spot" relationship-wise... so... I'm a social person and NEED interaction.  If we go back to full lockdowns and "Zoom Happy Hours", I am going to find myself in a deep, dark place.
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It is just risk mitigation.  Not risk elimination.

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
It is just risk mitigation.  Not risk elimination.
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There's very little evidence the cloth masks have any efficacy vs. Delta.  That's what is either scary, or can be yawned off, depending on your POV vis-a-vis vaccines.  

There was only the most faint evidence they had anything to do with preventing previous versions.  

Ventilation and concentration of people continue to be the only non vaccine based preventers for the overwhelming number of people.  

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Scary thread by a pediatric hospitalist in Houston:
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This is the scariest thing I've read in awhile.  If this variant starts putting kids in the hospitals (most of who cannot get vaccinated yet), I don't even want to consider what is going to happen in terms of lockdowns because a strain that hurts kids has always been the worst-case scenario.

I am with nirad in that a strict lockdown would put me in a pretty dark place.  But my mental health isn't as important as the lives of children.  I hope this doesn't explode as school is starting back today in my area.

 
shader said:
This is the scariest thing I've read in awhile.  If this variant starts putting kids in the hospitals (most of who cannot get vaccinated yet), I don't even want to consider what is going to happen in terms of lockdowns because a strain that hurts kids has always been the worst-case scenario.

I am with nirad in that a strict lockdown would put me in a pretty dark place.  But my mental health isn't as important as the lives of children.  I hope this doesn't explode as school is starting back today in my area.
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And in Texas schools are not allowed to require masks for the coming school year.

 
shader said:
This is the scariest thing I've read in awhile.  If this variant starts putting kids in the hospitals (most of who cannot get vaccinated yet), I don't even want to consider what is going to happen in terms of lockdowns because a strain that hurts kids has always been the worst-case scenario.

I am with nirad in that a strict lockdown would put me in a pretty dark place.  But my mental health isn't as important as the lives of children.  I hope this doesn't explode as school is starting back today in my area.
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I think (hope? pray?) we've learned enough about how to stay safe over the past year that we wouldn't need to revert to the kinds of lockdowns we saw in the spring of 2020. I also think that if we did bring them back, it would release so much pent-up frustration that it would prove counterproductive. I suspect you might see more businesses that had brought employees back to the office reverting to WFH, for example, but I doubt you'd see schools go remote again. Restaurants might reduce their seating capacity but they wouldn't go back to takeout only. I just don't see it happening

 
Dezbelief said:
And in Texas schools are not allowed to require masks for the coming school year.
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So incredibly dumb and reckless.  I had to sit in a client meeting last week with a lady who was ranting about how making kids wear masks at school is akin to torture.

I can't think of any kids in my orbit that complain about having to wear masks.  My kids actually look forward to picking which mask they are going to wear when we go out.  

 
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