JShare87
Footballguy
Of course. 2 issues with that.
Number 1: Nobody is mandating the 6-7 things.
Number 2: When someone tries to, people lose their minds about their rights and freedoms.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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Number 1: Nobody is mandating the 6-7 things.
Number 2: When someone tries to, people lose their minds about their rights and freedoms.
jplvr
Footballguy
I guess this was timely. Saw where their deaths were in the edit: teens again. 2 more weeks, I guess.
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shader
Footballguy
Battersbox
Footballguy
Georgia opened nearly three months ago. If we're alarmed about the rise just lately, how do we explain the sustained declines on that chart for the 6-8 weeks after the state opened? Perhaps transmission of the virus really doesn't correlate too well with how open or closed a given state is. Perhaps it spreads more now in Georgia cuz it's very hot and A/C is crankin with people staying in.
jplvr
Footballguy
Or something else may have happened between the opening up and now, particularly around the hottest spot of Atlanta.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Great post. Sorry to snip it, but this part is important as you point out.
No one should want to get this virus, or should be ambivalent about getting this virus. It makes people extremely sick in some cases. Younger people. And the symptoms can stay around for months. Richard Quest was on CNN today describing his bout with it. He's still dealing with health issues 100 days later.
Obviously the point about not giving it to other people is made frequently. What isn't brought up enough is that no one should think "if I get it I'll be fine, it's my grandparents I am worried about". No. You should be worried about getting it, there is no type of guarantee you will be fine.
Doug B
Footballguy
What do the hospitals gain from not volunteering their ICU capacity? Why be secretive? Or are we thinking that it's politically motivated from someone outside of the hospital system?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Florida is getting shelled right now. You have leadership at the top in Tallahassee saying one thing and then you have local County Officials and even smaller towns and cities implementing whatever they feel like. They have all passed emergency votes/legislation that was never voted on by any citizens and gives them the right to do whatever they want right now. When it's ordering everyone to wear masks, if that is something you feel strongly about then you probably are happy. But they are passing a lot more than mask mandates right now. But let me share what it feels like to someone who isn't here and I will go NFL for the analogy, I think this one will awaken memories for many...
I remember Buddy Ryan starting a fist fight on the sidelines with the Houston Oilers OC in the middle of an NFL game and I cannot think of the OC name off the top but he acted like he didn't need to understand what Buddy Ryan was trying to set up for his defense and for every action there is a reaction, for every choice there is a result or consequence, and I've never seen a football team or any organized team of folks able to have success when everyone is running in opposite directions. In Florida, everyone is running in opposite or different directions.
shader
Footballguy
There weren't sustained declines for 6-8 weeks. The declines continued for a week or two after reopening, then there was a plateau in cases, then a slow rise, and then a very big uptick in cases.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
First baseball tournament of the year in Edison NJ. Hundreds of people there and dozens of teams. Not a single players, umpire, coach, or parent was wearing a mask. The players all stayed in the dugouts, the ump called balls and strikes from behind the pitcher and another ump stayed 6ft to the side of the catcher (i guess for plays at the plate?). But the players tipped caps at the end instead of post game handshakes.
Battersbox
Footballguy
The rise correlates a lot more with the daily Atlanta protests/unrest than with them opening.
top dog
Footballguy
Reports keep coming out of cases earlier and earlier. I was 100% convinced in April that it wasn't here earlier than Late February / March. Then reports kept coming out of earlier and earlier cases. That made me only about 80% sure it wasn't covid. (Don't kick a guy for holding out hope).
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/06/state-now-identifies-302-cases-pre-dating-first-confirmations-of-coronavirus-in-ohio-march-9.html
My wife kept telling me "You had it already" as I was deathly ill with COVID-like symptoms for about a month starting the last couple days of December. I kept telling her. "Nope. The data doesn't match that." I took the test basically to be able to say "I told you so"
But part of me was hoping either I was completely wrong, or was one of the ones who may have had it and was asymptomatic.
beer 30
Footballguy
And this is why we can't have nice things. Not just FL, everywhere that didn't really embrace the lockdowns which is pretty much everywhere aside from NY.
belljr
Footballguy
Interesting as NJ was not supposed to start games until this week
we went to Delaware. The teams except for us definitely did not distance. Umpires were normal
saw many parents with masks. We kept our distance as much as possible. A team good game afterwards from the foul line. No award ceremony, just handed us the stuff and said congrats
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Lots of small hospitals at ICU capacity. Only 6 of the 44 at capacity have 40+ ICU beds, including North Shore and Baptist in Miami. The issue at Miami's public hospital, Jackson Health, is lack of nurses. I just saw some good news - the census of COVID inpatients at Jackson went down today to 323, from 345.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/44-florida-hospitals-at-icu-capacity.html
https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/44-florida-hospitals-at-icu-capacity.html
https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
nirad3
Footballguy
Just went to Smart & Final to pick up some lunch related items. It's nice working from home, I guess.
99% mask usage by employees and customers. Only saw one with no mask; an older Asian lady, but curiously wearing gloves.
When is this gonna end? :( Asking for a friend.
99% mask usage by employees and customers. Only saw one with no mask; an older Asian lady, but curiously wearing gloves.
When is this gonna end? :( Asking for a friend.
Doug B
Footballguy
Of course no one knows for sure. Myself ... I am mentally prepared for "about three years" or so before expecting American society to return to a pre-COVID world. That doesn't mean I'm envisioning three years of lockdowns. Likewise, I don't expect a vaccine in three years. It just means that I'm ready mentally for the long haul.
I think it has been reported that people that have tested positive for the virus do not necessarily have antibodies.Reports keep coming out of cases earlier and earlier. I was 100% convinced in April that it wasn't here earlier than Late February / March. Then reports kept coming out of earlier and earlier cases. That made me only about 80% sure it wasn't covid. (Don't kick a guy for holding out hope).
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/06/state-now-identifies-302-cases-pre-dating-first-confirmations-of-coronavirus-in-ohio-march-9.html
My wife kept telling me "You had it already" as I was deathly ill with COVID-like symptoms for about a month starting the last couple days of December. I kept telling her. "Nope. The data doesn't match that." I took the test basically to be able to say "I told you so"
But part of me was hoping either I was completely wrong, or was one of the ones who may have had it and was asymptomatic.
Justin Hart makes it too political, but he has some nice graphs. Looks like the CFR for all age groups is going down. Better treatment and earlier diagnosis?
https://mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1280569134258905090
https://mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1280569134258905090
Bigger denominator is likely the biggest factor. More cases are being identified and confirmed. Treatment has also gotten better. Both are expected with any pandemic. The main thing that will reverse that trend is the overwhelming of hospitals which won’t allow for proper treatment of everyone. That’s the path we’re on in many places.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Getting a test tomorrow morning. I have nasal drip, a light cough and sore throat. Getting some phlegm up when I cough now and I also have tightness in my chest. Light headache.
No fever or muscle aches yet. Had some intestinal discomfort yesterday but in fairness I ate and drank like a pig over the fourth weekend so who knows.
No fever or muscle aches yet. Had some intestinal discomfort yesterday but in fairness I ate and drank like a pig over the fourth weekend so who knows.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
OK, someone referenced this on another board, and used the term "death rate threshold". Googling that term and searching Google News, I learned that many right-wing online media sources have reported something about this "threshold":
TheFederalist.com - "CDC: After 10-Week Decline In COVID-19 Deaths, It May Soon No Longer Be An Epidemic" (7/6/2020)
TheBlaze.com - "CDC might stop calling COVID an 'epidemic' because of major drop in mortality rate" (7/7/2020)
IMHO, these outlets -- and others -- are misinterpreting a section of the CDC's "Key Updates for Week 26, ending June 27, 2020" (7/3/2020) which reads:
From an earlier CDC update, "COVIDView Summary ending on March 28, 2020" (4/4/2020):
However, also from the CDC - "2019-2020 Influenza Season Week 26, ending June 27, 2020" (7/2/2020):
Another CDC reference, this time from 4/18/2008 (yes, twelve years ago):
So, what is "the epidemic threshold", anyway? Looks like it might be a non-static situational number as opposed to a one-size-fits-all benchmark for all pathogens at all times. It's also curious that as much as we in this thread have been following the COVID-19 news since January, that this concept of an "epidemic threshold" -- especially expressed in terms of a "death rate" -- has never been a front-burner concept. In fact, I can't recall it being mentioned at all.
Meanwhile, a broad counterpoint:
Fauci calls focus on lower coronavirus death rate, touted by Trump, ‘a false narrative’ (Washington Post, 7/7/2020 [free])
...
Some further reading that came up as I was trying to determine the nature of the "epidemic threshold". Makes it look a lot like a case-by-case number that differs depending on specific conditions:
https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/...earch-methods/1a-epidemiology/epidemic-theory
Doug B
Footballguy
Looked at him in recent weeks ... he's not coming from a neutral place at all. The things he retweets concern me a lot about the angle he's working.
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culdeus
Footballguy
This is a good resource on tracking excess deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
If you don't buy the numbers then fine. I'm not sure how you can spin that to say things are getting worse.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
If you don't buy the numbers then fine. I'm not sure how you can spin that to say things are getting worse.
foxco
Footballguy
Got some good news today, wife's uncle was finally admitted to a hospital in the Dominican Republic and after getting some oxygen is doing much better. Was able to Zoom with the family in the US and crack a few jokes. Huge change from a couple of days ago when he had trouble breathing and could barely speak. Not totally out of the woods by any stretch but things are looking positive for now. It's crazy, he took this whole thing very seriously and basically quarantined in his condo for two months - left one time about a week and a half ago to go to Santo Domingo and he immediately catches it. This thing is for real.
joffer
Footballguy
Texas set records in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths today. it’s certainly not getting better here.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Wait three weeks when this weekend's poor behavior really kicks in. San Antonio is already down to 11% of available staffed beds. Not just ICU or COVID beds mind you. 11% of staffed beds PERIOD.
shader
Footballguy
Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"
(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)
T Jun 23: 437
W Jun 24: 458
Th Jun 25: 342
F Jun 26: 327
S Jun 27:261
Su Jun 28: 122
M Jun 29: 182
T Jun 30: 479
W July 1: 428
Th July 2: 418
F July 3: 357
S July 4: 134
Su July 5: 133
M July 6: 276
T July 7: 634
(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)
T Jun 23: 437
W Jun 24: 458
Th Jun 25: 342
F Jun 26: 327
S Jun 27:261
Su Jun 28: 122
M Jun 29: 182
T Jun 30: 479
W July 1: 428
Th July 2: 418
F July 3: 357
S July 4: 134
Su July 5: 133
M July 6: 276
T July 7: 634
gump
Footballguy
7 day average is probably a better indicator because of reporting delays over the weekend. Using your data only:
6/28: 278
6/29: 304
6/30: 310
7/1: 305
7/2: 316
7/3: 321
7/4: 302
7/5: 304
7/6: 317
7/7: 340
A steady increase with a little dip around the 4th of July. I’d expect this to be the start of an upward trend in deaths.
Another consideration is that these are deaths that are reported in the previous 24 hours, not necessarily the deaths that happened in the last 24 hours. If these other states are like AZ, death reporting is delayed by weeks. There were 117 reported deaths today but only about half happened in the last 10 days and about 30% between June 21st and 28th. When they finish back filling the deaths to the actual dates they happened, the epi death curve looks like it’s steady increasing.
Someone made a nice graphic of how the epi curve has changed as new cases are reported.
https://mobile.twitter.com/koko_vivian/status/1280560068925128707
shader
Footballguy
Things are getting worse in many states. In many states, they are getting better. Surely you can see that, right?
shader
Footballguy
I agree an average is a great way to look at the data. Tomorrow I was gonna actually look incorporate averages into a spreadsheet.
I also like to compare data week over week. Sunday and Monday are always low, Tuesday always has a bump.
Last 3 Tuesdays: 437,479,634
A steady increase but today was likely a little bit of extra backlog due to a 3-day weekend. Tomorrow should give us a better idea of accurate trends.
culdeus
Footballguy
Sure. So let's do the common sense things where you can.
At least in Texas the restaurant seatings have pulled back alot. Plus more masks. Could see that impact very soon.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Unfortunately, due to the timing of the mask law in conjunction with July 4th, I expect it will be close to a month before we fully reap the benefit. Wish Abbott had done it a moth earlier minimum.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
And we really don’t know what that impact will be. A lessening of the R0, but by how much? Enough to get it under 1?
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
shader
Footballguy
nirad3
Footballguy
That is sad and depressing. I am sad for my children. My family should be in a very happy period of life with where my kids are age-wise, and this is just a big pile of crap.
I feel bad for my parents, who are in their twilight years.
And yeah, I am selfishly bummed that we can't do things that we like doing.
Not trying to argue or tell you that you're a chicken little or whatever. It just makes me sad.
H Jass
Footballguy
It’s ridiculous isn’t it? We’ve got freaking county sheriffs holding special press conferences this evening just to say they aren’t enforcing anything. It’s hard not to be bitter at the lack of simple selflessness. These last 4 months have been sadly eye opening for me.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Tennessee's "Phase 1" included restaurants and retail at 50% capacity. Implemented on April 27.
Their "Phase 2" went into effect on May 22, with restaurant capacity increased to 75%.
Several counties and cities went to "Phase 3" in mid-June.
New cases statewide started spiking in late June.
Their "Phase 2" went into effect on May 22, with restaurant capacity increased to 75%.
Several counties and cities went to "Phase 3" in mid-June.
New cases statewide started spiking in late June.
