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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (24 Viewers)

jobarules said:
First baseball tournament of the year in Edison NJ. Hundreds of people there and dozens of teams. Not a single players, umpire, coach, or parent was wearing a mask. The players all stayed in the dugouts, the ump called balls and strikes from behind the pitcher and another ump stayed 6ft to the side of the catcher (i guess for plays at the plate?). But the players tipped caps at the end instead of post game handshakes. 
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My son has played in baseball tournaments the past two weekends here in Arizona.  We wiped down the dugouts before each game.  No shaking hands with other team after the game - just tipped the cap.  Umpires were directly behind the catcher as normal.  However, only 50 people per field were allowed entrance due to the Governors recent max 50 people rule.  We had 11 kids so only 13 coaches/parents allowed.  24 each team and the 2 umpires.

Kids played great and we lost in the championship game on Sunday.  3 games back to back to back in 110 degree heat was just too much.  I am the head coach and I had never been so heat exhausted.

 
shader said:
Remember when many posters were in here saying "Georgia has been open for a month and nothings happening"

https://twitter.com/Georgiacorona/status/1280585324696084484?s=20
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Georgia trended downward for hospitalizations for 6 weeks after opening. 

Uptick cant possibly have anything to do with a significant amount of large gatherings leading to an increase in hospitalizations around the middle of june. 

Nope has to be because they opened too soon and people were just scared to line up at the mall. For shoes. Oh wait...

 
parasaurolophus said:
Georgia trended downward for hospitalizations for 6 weeks after opening. 

Uptick cant possibly have anything to do with a significant amount of large gatherings leading to an increase in hospitalizations around the middle of june. 

Nope has to be because they opened too soon and people were just scared to line up at the mall. For shoes. Oh wait...
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I think there is something to the theory that as soon as you open up - many people are still reluctant to go full on. They won't go to indoor dining, or do much retail shopping, or even do much different in terms of distancing and gathering. When cases don't rise, or even fall for a month or two, people become lazy, and itch for their old life. 

 
For those of you blaming the protests for Georgia's increase, how do you explain the decreases in Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Virginia? Did none of those states have protests? Or do only certain protests affect COVID?

 
culdeus said:
Sure.  So let's do the common sense things where you can.  

At least in Texas the restaurant seatings have pulled back alot.  Plus more masks.  Could see that impact very soon. 
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Inside dining during a covid surge is bananas imo. 

but kids are going back to school in August so same end result anyway?

 
Battersbox said:
Georgia opened nearly three months ago. If we're alarmed about the rise just lately, how do we explain the sustained declines on that chart for the 6-8 weeks after the state opened? Perhaps transmission of the virus really doesn't correlate too well with how open or closed a given state is. Perhaps it spreads more now in Georgia cuz it's very hot and A/C is crankin with people staying in.
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Opening up on paper and people resuming normal activities are two different things. So you can’t just add 2, 3, 6 weeks to a policy change date and predict with high accuracy the number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths. Moreover, superspreader events accelerate things quickly, and we still don’t understand why these occur. All this is compounded by variability in regional population density and baseline case burden.

So we shouldn’t intellectualize the numbers too much. There are simply too many variables in play. But we can work to optimize the interventions which limit the spread of infection, continue widespread testing and remain vigilant in response to local outbreaks for the foreseeable future.

 
the moops said:
I think there is something to the theory that as soon as you open up - many people are still reluctant to go full on. They won't go to indoor dining, or do much retail shopping, or even do much different in terms of distancing and gathering. When cases don't rise, or even fall for a month or two, people become lazy, and itch for their old life. 
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Sure there is a bit of that.

There is also plenty of sentiment where people see thousands of people violating everything we heard health experts preach about for months and not only do those health experts not say anything, but actually encourage said behavior which also creates that itch. 

 
Joe Summer said:
For those of you blaming the protests for Georgia's increase, how do you explain the decreases in Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Virginia? Did none of those states have protests? Or do only certain protests affect COVID?
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1. Which stats are we talking about, hospitalizations?

2. Interesting to look at deaths per million in population and then look at your list. 

 
Wisconsin hospitalizations have decreased/flatlined for a long time. ICU cases are at lowest level since March. Deaths are a downtrend. 

Madison seeing different trends though and Madison is one of the most locked down areas(relative scale) in the state. 

 
Terminalxylem said:
So we shouldn’t intellectualize the numbers too much. There are simply too many variables in play. But we can work to optimize the interventions which limit the spread of infection, continue widespread testing and remain vigilant in response to local outbreaks for the foreseeable future.
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As I said at the outset of this pandemic, there are thousands of PhD dissertations waiting to be written from all the data and natural experiments we have going on.  Hopefully these data can be analyzed to create better understanding of the interplay between epidemics, public policy, sociology, and psychology.

 
Battersbox said:
Georgia opened nearly three months ago. If we're alarmed about the rise just lately, how do we explain the sustained declines on that chart for the 6-8 weeks after the state opened? Perhaps transmission of the virus really doesn't correlate too well with how open or closed a given state is. Perhaps it spreads more now in Georgia cuz it's very hot and A/C is crankin with people staying in.
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jplvr said:
Or something else may have happened between the opening up and now, particularly around the hottest spot of Atlanta.
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As a Georgia resident,  I really only care why things are going up so we can figure out what to do or not do.  I think the simple answer is we don’t have a statewide mask mandate but we should.

 
AAABatteries said:
Have we collectively given up on contact tracing?
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I can't find the article now but did read something about how it's basically impossible in the south at this point. Too many cases, positive rate is too high and they weren't (nobody is to be fair) ready to contact trace that many cases. That ship has sailed for the states posting 2k+ cases a day. 

ETA: Not the one I read but here is an article taking about it https://whdh.com/news/contact-tracing-no-longer-possible-across-us-south-due-to-rapid-coronavirus-surges-health-expert-says/

 
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AAABatteries said:
Have we collectively given up on contact tracing?
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I don't think we've given up, but it's only likely to work in situations where the number of new cases is relatively low.  It could help those states that already have new cases under 1k/day.  There are probably 15-20 states in that situation.  Contact tracing could be executed at the county or city level if those jurisdictions had the capacity and technical expertise to do it.  It would certainly help on a local level to not get into a FL or AZ situation.

The effort required (without significant technological interventions that are likely illegal) would be tremendous in a situation with 50k new cases / day.

 
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CR69 said:
I can't find the article now but did read something about how it's basically impossible in the south at this point. Too many cases, positive rate is too high and they weren't (nobody is to be fair) ready to contact trace that many cases. That ship has sailed for the states posting 2k+ cases a day. 

ETA: Not the one I read but here is an article taking about it https://whdh.com/news/contact-tracing-no-longer-possible-across-us-south-due-to-rapid-coronavirus-surges-health-expert-says/
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First, this was left to the states.  Our federal govt has NEVER been interested in contact tracing, so saying that they have given up is inaccurate. In addition, contact tracing is really only viable when the cases are reasonably low.  MA communicated clearly to its citizens that the point of SIP advisories and social distancing was to drive case counts down so that they could hire 1000 contact tracers who would be able to keep up with the caseload.  It does no good to have a contact tracing program in place if the caseload is so high that it takes days/weeks to reach potentially infected individuals.  My 20 year old niece was doing contact tracing calls here in MA from her backyard* at a cost of $30 per hour until last week.  She was laid off due to lack of need/volume.  Am sure she and her fellow, fully trained colleagues would be happy to call GA residents...if only there were some govt function that could coordinate these state programs...perhaps some govt that could bring the states together in some united form to organize activities that our in the best interest of all..crazy idea I realize, just a brief thought.

*Good gig while it lasted, though we are all happy it DIDN'T last...and we hope she doesn't need to be re-hired.

 
AAABatteries said:
Have we collectively given up on contact tracing?
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I sure hope so. It was never a viable solution here and I am sick of hearing about it. 

Osterholm on his most recent CIDRAP podcast "viral gravity" said that health officials need to move on from test and trace and try to figure out new solutions. Reasonable people may disagree but my interpretation of his thoughts on this matter were that health officials had just been beating a drum repeating "test and trace" and not progressing enough other options. 

Side note, CIDRAP is working on a study regarding infectious dose. I think 27 different doctors and scientists from around the world. Osterholm, for as dry as he is, seems excited about this study so I hope it provides some good intel. 

 
Kal El said:
Well, Florida is charging on ahead with school in the fall, come hell or high water(and since it's hurricane season, both are a possibility). This seems like a bad idea to me, but what do I know? I've only got 3 kids of elementary school age.
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Does your school/county not have a virtual option?  My county is doing exactly what they should do.  They're offering parents a choice.  It's kind of difficult for government to force families to take the financial hit so a parent can stay home to teach their kids.  All while taxes stay the same and school board budgets remain unchanged. 

If you want to mandate virtual school then the parents who have to home-school their kids should be compensated for it or receive equivalent tax breaks.

 
GroveDiesel said:
That’s the price for buying into the alumni system and the prestige of a Harvard diploma, not the price of the education.
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I agree that's the bulk of it but I'm sure the networking and relationships made while on campus is a big benefit as well.

 
Hugh Jass said:
It’s ridiculous isn’t it? We’ve got freaking county sheriffs holding special press conferences this evening just to say they aren’t enforcing anything.  It’s hard not to be bitter at the lack of simple selflessness. These last 4 months have been sadly eye opening for me.
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I still get worked up over it but I've come to the realization the best I can do is take care of myself and my family. I wear a mask, I wash up so much surgeons comment on how clean my hands are and I avoid large public gatherings as much as possible. I'm not worried about anyone else outside of my family sphere. The rest of you do you and stay 6 feet or more away from me. I don't push my agenda on you, don't push yours on me.

Does it still piss me off that people are arguing about loss of rights because governments are mandating masks? Yes but see above, I'm not wasting my time trying to convince you to do the right thing. I hope you stay healthy and don't catch anything with your approach  :thumbup:

* "you" is figurative and not directed at any one person in particular  :D

 
Grahamburn said:
Does your school/county not have a virtual option?  My county is doing exactly what they should do.  They're offering parents a choice.  It's kind of difficult for government to force families to take the financial hit so a parent can stay home to teach their kids.  All while taxes stay the same and school board budgets remain unchanged. 

If you want to mandate virtual school then the parents who have to home-school their kids should be compensated for it or receive equivalent tax breaks.
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The whole state is required to follow that, at least for public schools. My kids to to a small private school, so they'll interact with fewer people there, but it's still not a great idea.

 
ChiefD said:
Numbers as of today in my county:

Positive tests: 2,277

Total number of tests: 46,055

Positive percentage: 5%

Deaths: 90

Death percentage relative to positive tests: 3.95%
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Numbers as of today in my county (two days later than above):

Positive tests: 2,488

Total number of tests: 48,423

Positive percentage: 5.1%

Deaths: 91

Death percentage relative to positive tests: 3.65%

Edit to add: These are rolling numbers. So the total number of deaths is from when Covid started. Same with the testing numbers.

 
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parasaurolophus said:
I sure hope so. It was never a viable solution here and I am sick of hearing about it. 

Osterholm on his most recent CIDRAP podcast "viral gravity" said that health officials need to move on from test and trace and try to figure out new solutions. Reasonable people may disagree but my interpretation of his thoughts on this matter were that health officials had just been beating a drum repeating "test and trace" and not progressing enough other options. 

Side note, CIDRAP is working on a study regarding infectious dose. I think 27 different doctors and scientists from around the world. Osterholm, for as dry as he is, seems excited about this study so I hope it provides some good intel. 
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Other options around treatment or limiting the spread?

Infectious dose meaning intentionally exposing folks to it?  That was something I can remember us (FBG) discussing a long time ago but it seemed like it was dismissed as a bad idea at the time.

 
AAABatteries said:
Have we collectively given up on contact tracing?
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Have to get the level of the virus down to a level that can be monitored in the community. Contact tracing in several states right now is essentially - you’ve all been exposed, hopefully you’re doing the things we told you to do.

 
AAABatteries said:
Other options around treatment or limiting the spread?

Infectious dose meaning intentionally exposing folks to it?  That was something I can remember us (FBG) discussing a long time ago but it seemed like it was dismissed as a bad idea at the time.
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I dont know the study parameters, but it is to determine how much infectious dose is required to get sick and how much various activities actually expose somebody to. Not any kind of herd immunity strategy. 

 
My town of 60K across the river from NYC has been doing tracing successfully, most recently when we had a "spike" of 13 cases following a long period of a random positive or two. They found that 12 of them had recently just been in Florida, Arizona, and Cali. 

 
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Hugh Jass said:
It’s ridiculous isn’t it? We’ve got freaking county sheriffs holding special press conferences this evening just to say they aren’t enforcing anything.  It’s hard not to be bitter at the lack of simple selflessness. These last 4 months have been sadly eye opening for me.
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To be fair, the Butler County Sheriff said they are understaffed, as well as local police.  Crime is rising and they are trying to keep that in check with the force they have on hand.  The Sheriff asked that people not call 911 to report on someone not wearing a mask in public.  They will not respond to those calls.  I don't disagree with his statement.  You can't expect the police force to constantly be looking at everyone and running to every Karen who wants to try to control everyone else she sees in a a parking lot.

I do agree about the last four months.  It's not hard to just put on a mask when you go to a store for something.  Keep it in the car and move on.  But I don't think the police should have to be enforcing this based on 911 calls.

 
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Terminalxylem said:
Too many infections to effectively contact trace, unless done electronically via cell phone a la S Korea. But Americans don’t want to risk their privacy.
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A point they make abundantly clear via their FaceBook accounts. One of the most frustrating things for me is the total ignorance about the rights they give up when registering to use that cell phone (especially with location services), or online services like FB, Google, Amazon, etc. Surrender all of your most important information by signing off on your privacy rights, but text alerts for contact tracing and masks in public are where the line is drawn. 🙄

JetMaxx said:
Will there be another spike in the northeast or has it primarily run its course here?
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I'd be surprised if there's not a spike from 4th celebrations. Not predicting any massive surge, but it seems reasonable to expect a jump in cases.

 
Peak said:
To be fair, the Butler County Sheriff said they are understaffed, as well as local police.  Crime is rising and they are trying to keep that in check with the force they have on hand.  The Sheriff asked that people not call 911 to report on someone not wearing a mask in public.  They will not respond to those calls.  I don't disagree with his statement.  You can't expect the police force to constantly be looking at everyone and running to every Karen who wants to try to control everyone else she sees in a a parking lot.
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I can agree with the bolded.

What I think is very definitely the police's role, though, is to enforce the local businesses' obligation to abide by the face-covering order. For example, whenever a business tells a patron that they cannot enter without a face covering, and that patron raises a stink, tries to force their way in, won't vacate premises, etc. ... the police rightfully should be all over those kinds of calls.

...

I will say, though, that it would be ideal if local police would stop into local groceries, drugstores, retailers, etc. maybe once per shift and do a quick walk-through. Approach any non-mask-wearers, let them know what the new ordinance is, let them know that hurrying up and putting on a mask upon sight of an officer is not sufficient compliance. Freely write tickets to the most recalcitrant.

 
parasaurolophus said:
I dont know the study parameters, but it is to determine how much infectious dose is required to get sick and how much various activities actually expose somebody to. Not any kind of herd immunity strategy. 
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Thanks for that podcast mention - been listening to it for a while now.  This guy seems to think we will hit herd immunity within a year or so without a vaccine.  That's a lot of damn cases and very sobering.

 
Joe Summer said:
For those of you blaming the protests for Georgia's increase, how do you explain the decreases in Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Virginia? Did none of those states have protests? Or do only certain protests affect COVID?
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I"ve posted theories on that.  The virus is on the decline in the North. One weeks' worth of protests isn't going to suddenly cause the virus to turn around and start aggressively spreading again.  But it can halt the reverse of the decline.  

I don't have time to go through all those states, but you can look at Minnesota and clearly see that the decline in cases stopped, and that new cases have leveled off and possibly begun to go up as well.

Basically, a massive protest in an area where the virus is dying out is different than a mass protest in an area where the virus is starting to pick up steam.  Just a theory, but it's one that I believe matches with the data.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I mean, our CDC is still recommending against testing asymptomatic people, and folks are asking about contact tracing?  That's like wondering when your kid is going to start on the Formula 1 circuit when he still can't work a clutch.
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It was more a comment that it's not even something discussed much any more - at least that I've seen.  I get that it's really difficult and doesn't fit in to our current operating model.  I'm still wondering if those areas that have gotten a handle on things have any good plans to try it.

 
beer 30 said:
I still get worked up over it but I've come to the realization the best I can do is take care of myself and my family. I wear a mask, I wash up so much surgeons comment on how clean my hands are and I avoid large public gatherings as much as possible. I'm not worried about anyone else outside of my family sphere. The rest of you do you and stay 6 feet or more away from me. I don't push my agenda on you, don't push yours on me.

Does it still piss me off that people are arguing about loss of rights because governments are mandating masks? Yes but see above, I'm not wasting my time trying to convince you to do the right thing. I hope you stay healthy and don't catch anything with your approach  :thumbup:

* "you" is figurative and not directed at any one person in particular  :D
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No, I hear you and completely feel what you're saying 90% of the time.  We're doing what we're going to do...best of luck to "you".  The frustration I'm feeling right now is the approach of school and my kids really, really, really need that again.  For their sanity.  The school isn't mandating masks though (recommended but not a have to) and I'm talking about seeing all these families basically giving the rest of us the bird.  That's depressing and left us in quite a quandary screaming towards the start of school.

 
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AAABatteries said:
Have we collectively given up on contact tracing?
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I hope not.  All states in the North that are doing a great job of handling the virus should be implementing contact tracing.  Are they?  I don't really have any idea.  

But if you combine contact tracing with masks, that's the best shot at keeping it from breaking out again in an area.

Contact tracing is a worthless exercise in the 20 or so states that are dealing with covid outbreaks, imo.

 
Peak said:
To be fair, the Butler County Sheriff said they are understaffed, as well as local police.  Crime is rising and they are trying to keep that in check with the force they have on hand.  The Sheriff asked that people not call 911 to report on someone not wearing a mask in public.  They will not respond to those calls.  I don't disagree with his statement.  You can't expect the police force to constantly be looking at everyone and running to every Karen who wants to try to control everyone else she sees in a a parking lot.

I do agree about the last four months.  It's not hard to just put on a mask when you go to a store for something.  Keep it in the car and move on.  But I don't think the police should have to be enforcing this based on 911 calls.
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I get that and actually feel the police really shouldn't be involved in straight enforcement on calls.  Its more of the attitude that we're getting from both Butler and Warren Co. sheriffs that this whole thing is dumb.  I totally get a "the Governor is an idiot and you all shouldn't listen to him" vibe from those 2 turds.

 
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shader said:
Basically, a massive protest in an area where the virus is dying out is different than a mass protest in an area where the virus is starting to pick up steam.  Just a theory, but it's one that I believe matches with the data.
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Yep. Mentioning the current situation in New York in the same breath as pretty much anything is pointless. 

That would be like in 1918 if Philly was dunking on everybody that was having a second wave. 

 
Florida today:

+10,044 cases (last Wednesday +6,563)

+333 hospitalizations (last Wed +245)

+48 deaths (last Wed +45)

Median age 39 (last Wed 37)

 
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shader said:
I hope not.  All states in the North that are doing a great job of handling the virus should be implementing contact tracing.  Are they?  I don't really have any idea.  

But if you combine contact tracing with masks, that's the best shot at keeping it from breaking out again in an area.

Contact tracing is a worthless exercise in the 20 or so states that are dealing with covid outbreaks, imo.
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Over 50% of the calls go unanswered and unreturned. I would rather 100% of those resources go to getting vulnerable people better masks. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
Over 50% of the calls go unanswered and unreturned. I would rather 100% of those resources go to getting vulnerable people better masks. 
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That's a good point. The only way to do it perfect is to track cellphones which would be seen as a real invasion of privacy.  I was listening to a podcast regarding how it was done in SK.  People in the USA would never, ever submit to that. 

Essentially there was a girl that tested positive for covid and then her location data was tracked and everyone that had been in the restaurant where she picked up food got alerts that they were close to someone that had covid.  I don't remember all the details as it's been a few months, but it was something along those lines.  And we know that will never work here.

So maybe you're right.  Why waste the resources on a poorly run program.

The flipside of that is that it's all about reducing the R0 factor.  Let's say that with masks the R0 is 1.1, but with contact tracing, even if that tracing is poorly done, you can get that down to .9.

If so, then maybe it's worth it.  But I do agree that putting resources towards masks would be a higher priority.

 
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Hugh Jass said:
I get that and actually feel the police really shouldn't be involved in straight enforcement on calls.  Its more of the attitude that we're getting from both Butler and Warren Co. sheriffs that this whole thing is dumb.  I totally get a "the Governor is an idiot and you all shouldn't listen to him" vibe from those 2 turds.
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Fair point.  BC Sheriff has been all about himself for awhile now.  I tend to think he beleives he's a gunslinger from the old west and doesn't care what anyone else thinks.

 
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