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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ditto. Sending two 7th graders virtual for fall. The over-under on when the whole school goes virtual is October 1st, because once cases pop up, parents will pull their kids out again (IMO).
I’m on an advisory council for the school and told them yesterday “it’s just science and logic — you will have cases within weeks of opening, so you need to prepare now for how you plan to handle that situation WHEN not IF it arises.” Another guy on the council who has a background in infectious disease research said “you also need a plan for helping people emotionally cope when someone in the community inevitably gets sick and dies.”
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
What some people see as bias I just see as most media members a) are essentially mathematically illiterate, b) not parroting conservative talking points and therefore “biased.”
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Just odd seeing the replies to this CNN Breaking News Tweet from 25 minutes ago...
https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1281967341278986242
"New York state recorded its lowest three-day death toll average from coronavirus since March 16, the governor said"
A sample of replies...
How brainwashed do you have to be to make comments like that?
Deaths
New York - 32K
TX, FL, AZ, GA - 12.4K combined
If only we were all more like New York, hooray NY!
https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1281967341278986242
"New York state recorded its lowest three-day death toll average from coronavirus since March 16, the governor said"
A sample of replies...
How brainwashed do you have to be to make comments like that?
Deaths
New York - 32K
TX, FL, AZ, GA - 12.4K combined
If only we were all more like New York, hooray NY!
Last edited by a moderator:
TheWinz
Footballguy
If you read the definition for active cases on the website, it says active cases = total cases - total deaths - recovered. The key here is recovered. Please follow along with me as I explain:
New York - 236,117 = 426,016 - 32,375 - ????
The missing number from the website is recovered patients, which in NY's case is 157,524
Texas - 124,930 = 251,076 - 3,150 - ????
Recovered patients in Texas total 122,996
Are people in NY taking months to recover, while people in Texas are recovering the same day they contract COVID? Or perhaps the numbers on worldometer are simply off?
AAABatteries
Footballguy
We heard nonstop talk about New York for weeks. We heard about Arizona a couple weeks back and lately Florida, Texas and California. All of these are due to new cases and lack of stronger measures to slow things down. You’re seeing something that is not there, IMO.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
I see that "Operation: Move The Goalposts To 'Active Cases'" has officially begun...
shadyridr
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
I see where you are going and I agree. New England states got hammered in the death department early on, and I doubt the rest of the nation will EVER catch up.
Deaths per million
NJ (1751), NY (1664), CT (1220), MA (1204)
AZ (286), GA (279), FL (195), TX (109)
No way in hell the bottom 4 states have death tolls like the top 4.
Hey listen, I am from CT, so I know what you are talking about. New England is not an area to emulate. There's a great line from House, where Dr House says, "almost dying changes nothing; dying changes everything". I think the people of New England can relate, and are more willing to follow guidelines from here on out.
Almost hit send until I realized... House was set in New Jersey!
CR69
Footballguy
Seriously. WTF are they even talking about?
Creating a false narrative to complain about a false narrative is a special kind of mental gymnastics.
mr roboto
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Yeah, but look how hard you had to work to find those examples. You had to open Google, type the word California, then hit enter.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Active cases on Worldometer is totally stupid...
Rhode Island - Of the 17,312 cases, 976 died, leaving 16,336 on the road to recovery. Of those, 14,651 are still on their way (90%).
Connecticut - Of the 47,287 cases, 4,348 died, leaving 42,939 on the road to recovery. Of those, 26,054 are still on their way (61%).
Massachusetts - Of the 111,110 cases, 8,296 died, leaving 102,814 on the road to recovery. Of those, 8,467 are still on their way (8%).
I chose these 3 states because they border each other, and were hit early. Evidently, folks from RI don't heal too well (Mr Glass), and people from MA heal like Bruce Willis in Unbreakable.
Rhode Island - Of the 17,312 cases, 976 died, leaving 16,336 on the road to recovery. Of those, 14,651 are still on their way (90%).
Connecticut - Of the 47,287 cases, 4,348 died, leaving 42,939 on the road to recovery. Of those, 26,054 are still on their way (61%).
Massachusetts - Of the 111,110 cases, 8,296 died, leaving 102,814 on the road to recovery. Of those, 8,467 are still on their way (8%).
I chose these 3 states because they border each other, and were hit early. Evidently, folks from RI don't heal too well (Mr Glass), and people from MA heal like Bruce Willis in Unbreakable.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Is there a standard for reporting the recovered group? Pergaps MAs number is based on non-hospitalized and discharged? Or RI possibly leaving cases open until every last shred of symptoms disappear? The CRUSH RI app has a daily symptom feature that could tie in?
gianmarco
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
With such a disparity, I guarantee there is no standard. At this point, there isn't even a standard for reporting deaths, let alone recoveries.
Arizona with ok report today. About 3000 new cases with a 20% raw positive rate, a significant decrease. Could be a trend but with the weekend here, it will be a few days before we can tell if the trend continues.
The one day decrease the ICU COVID cases didn’t last and back to trending up. Record highs in pretty much every hospital category. Not huge but a consistent net increase in the ICU, acute care and ventilators.
Deaths were 69, probably a new normal for awhile even if cases are trending down. Reports are surfacing of hospitals filling their morgues and bringing in refrigerated trucks.
I haven’t seen the trends for today’s reporting but the last couple days have showed higher growth in the 45-54 and 55-64. Not surprising but hopefully not a trend that continues.
The one day decrease the ICU COVID cases didn’t last and back to trending up. Record highs in pretty much every hospital category. Not huge but a consistent net increase in the ICU, acute care and ventilators.
Deaths were 69, probably a new normal for awhile even if cases are trending down. Reports are surfacing of hospitals filling their morgues and bringing in refrigerated trucks.
I haven’t seen the trends for today’s reporting but the last couple days have showed higher growth in the 45-54 and 55-64. Not surprising but hopefully not a trend that continues.
shader
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
If you click on laboratory testing and then scroll down to the chart showing number of tests by date, it's plummeting.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
From what I’ve read, NYC does have about 20-25% positives on antibody tests. While that doesn’t equate to herd immunity, it will make it more difficult for the R0 to spike, because every fourth person you come into contact with theoretically has immunity.
Combined with strict mask laws, NYC has some real reasons for optimism moving forward.
shader
Footballguy
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Yes. In one way it's helpful to have posters like that in here. (Even though I have them all on ignore.) We can always be certain of currency on the latest troll meme.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
The sad thing about the whole "BUT WHATABOUT ACTIVE CASES?!" narrative is that it's only a matter of days before Florida and Texas eclipse New York and California in terms of the active case rate.
And then it'll be on to the next goalpost.
And then it'll be on to the next goalpost.
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Right. This follows "BUT TEH TESTING INCREASE!!!" and "BUT NO RISE IN DEF RATE!!!!!JUAN" into the dustbin of history.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Glad you mentioned AZ, because I was just about to do a deep dive into their numbers. I printed out a few line drawing maps of the USA so I could write numbers on them. As for cases per million, AZ instantly stood out to me. Here are AZ's numbers compared to the states that border it:
AZ - 16,477
UT (8,803), NV (8,713), CA (7,907), NM (6,939)
Basically, AZ doubles all the other states. So then I figured, it must be because they are testing at a higher rate, right? Wrong
AZ - 118,193 tests per million
NM (192,472), NV (137,989), CA (130,991), UT (123,512)
In fact, AZ is last in testing of the 5 states, making their cases per M even that more impressive.
Well, at least they can't lead the 5 states in deaths per million. Or can they? They can.
AZ's deaths really aren't all that eye popping, but their case count is crazy. What the heck are they doing ranked 4th in cases per million, when they are surrounded by a bunch of states that are nowhere near the top, and they are below the average in tests per million? It just doesn't make sense.
NotSmart
Footballguy
In decades of using this site I had never used the ignore list prior to this thread.
I do however genuinely appreciate the people that take the time to counter the bad info and thinly disguised political agenda posts.
And it's useful to see the latest agenda talking points that are being tried out.
skol asylum
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
What percentage of those that have been infected will have long term chronic health issues I wonder.
shadyridr
Footballguy
The whole ‘chronic health issues’ is overstated. Hypertension and obesity are included, so it’s not like they are just talking about people who already severely ill.
CR69
Footballguy
I think he's talking about the long term effects of the disease for the people that "recover" instead of dying.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Active cases on worldometers are meaningless. NY doesn’t report recovered cases so it basically makes no sense. Look at NY hospitalizations which are lowest since mid-March. If you look where NY was and is now it is a success story.
Latest NY numbers - https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-during-covid-19-pandemic-6
mr roboto
Footballguy
AZ shares boarders with those states but not much else. The main population centers, Phoenix and Tucson, aren’t terribly close to population centers of the other states. That semi-isolation made them a good candidate to not get hit hard and they weren’t for the most part.
They became a hotspot because opened before ever reaching a peak or allowing. Other states talk about rolling back phases, they didn’t really do that. It was pretty much a free-for-all with little or unclear restrictions. That and the good weather made them a target destination for freedom seeking individuals especially from So Cal. It was a very predictable recipe for disaster. The best thing was that they didn’t become a hotspot until after the snowbirds left. Imagine thousands of seniors leaving the state and bringing the virus back to all the northwest and Midwest states.
