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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
culdeus
Footballguy
R/covid19 houses a bunch of good stuff. Alot to sift thru regarding risk modeling, some junk. Some worth considering.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Trending down here in Ventura County. About to be taken of the watch list if we can continue with low infection rates 10 more days. All other categories are green. Talk of opening K-6 and more
JaxBill
Footballguy
beer 30
Footballguy
I've always been curious, what amount of intake do you ingest to get to that weight and then what amount do you consume daily to stay there?
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Depending on when in your infection cycle you are tested, our best testing systems have up to a 40% false negative rate.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Osaurus
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
At some point the thermodynamics of it all breaks down.
It's really challenging to eat 10kcal of food days on end but they probably did that for years but now they broke their metabolic system.
It's why you think based on TDEE factors a 300# person should melt at 1200 Cal's a day but they don't until they get down to like 240. Something just breaks.
beer 30
Footballguy
I've always kind of figured there was a point when a switch was flipped because the math that applies to us run of the mill overweight folks doesn't work when you start getting above 300#, thanks for the explination.
The human body is a miraculous thing. To think about taking in that kind of caloric intake, the sheer waste generated and then the bodies ability to process it all on a "hyper" level, for years, is amazing stuff.
culdeus
Footballguy
It's controversial but there is perhaps a likely maximum energy absorption at any one time and a max energy expenditure from rest. Otherwise people at some weights simply break fundamental physics.
Put in another way, The 1# of fat is 3500 cal is if you light it on fire. Our bodies don't exactly operate like that, but it does roughly approximate the metabolism of a healthy weight person so we go with it.
worrierking
Footballguy
Likely one or more begin being used in at-risk populations late this fall with wide-scale distribution in 2021. Lot's of variables related to production that need to be solved.
I think you'll start to see positive data in 4-6 weeks and an Emergency Use application in October.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I read a few year's back that there was some evidence that after fecal transplants for c diff, patients experienced weight changes that were thought to be potentially caused by the change in intestinal biome caused by the transplant. It doesn't seem like there is definitive evidence either way thus far. The idea that people's caloric absorption would change based on their gut bacteria is interesting, though, and could potentially explain why some people seem to be able to eat relative high calorie diets without weight gain.
culdeus
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
It's not going anywhere. but it would be nice for some sort of current risk assessment to be made about the virus. Since June, despite rising COVID cases in the UK, 5x more people are now dying from flu & pneumonia than COVID, and flu and pneumonia deaths are down 50% from the same period last year, probably due to social distancing.Penguin said:
https://www.theweek.co.uk/107790/flu-killing-more-people-than-covid-19
Current policy seems to being made based on "cases", even though the definition of cases is completely murky to assess individual risk.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
The more important question is who has wiping duty, because there is no way in hades he can reach it himself.
nirad3
Footballguy
Same here down the coast in Orange County.
It's nice to live in a climate like this where outdoor eating will be possible even into the winter months. I expect a lot of those space heater tower thingies.
I'm hoping my ultra-cautious company comes around on business travel in the next few months. I gotta get my eyes on my projects in Texas, etc. We'll see what happens.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
nirad3
Footballguy
We are going to go look at some projects out in Imperial County in the next couple weeks. Driving to more local sites is OK for now, but no air travel. Bleh.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
PIAA votes 25-5 in favor of fall sports in Pa
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I was going to do that to visit a supplier in NJ, but their HR put the kibosh on someone coming in from MD. I would have had to quarantine for 14 days before arriving...
But I can drive up to the NJ shore any time and no one will blink an eye.
worrierking
Footballguy
Getting ready for two hurricanes in Louisiana. Everything is changed because of COVID-19. They don't want to set up any public shelters or any public transportation for evacuations because of the threat of spreading the virus. You can imagine what it would be like to have an infected person on a bus for several hours with 40 other people. Or a couple thousand people crowded into a basketball arena for three or four days.
My home is in the SW corner, right in the path of Laura, about 25 miles from the coast. Stress is going to be high.
My home is in the SW corner, right in the path of Laura, about 25 miles from the coast. Stress is going to be high.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Not a good day. Got a call from paramedics that my mother in law died in her sleep last night. Wife is understandably not doing well. Even though her test was negative I think it was a false negative because she had many symptoms of COVID. Was told they will test again to confirm cause of death.
lardonastick
Footballguy
Florida continuing to head in the right direction. Positive rate for the state hovering around 5%, while in Miami-Dade it's been under 10 for 4 days in a row - at 8.5% for yesterday's report. Broward has been under 5% for two consecutive days - 4.9% and 4.4%. https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/08/21/florida-coronavirus-cases-deaths-latest-updates/
Marc Bevand has great analysis of the deaths, by date of death - note deaths reported today occurred in the past few week:
1. deaths peaked on August 4 (7d SMA) at 185/day (I predicted 160-190) . Note: SMA - simple moving average
2. deaths then decreased to 130/day as of 21 Aug (I predicted 120-160)
Marc Bevand has great analysis of the deaths, by date of death - note deaths reported today occurred in the past few week:
1. deaths peaked on August 4 (7d SMA) at 185/day (I predicted 160-190) . Note: SMA - simple moving average
2. deaths then decreased to 130/day as of 21 Aug (I predicted 120-160)
culdeus
Footballguy
This is a really odd phase of this cycle. Cases and deaths are down, but still this thing is just everywhere. Masks seem to work well, maybe better than we thought.
Still feel like we know nothing more than we did in May and are not closer to a end point.
A general fatigue is certain to set in.
Still feel like we know nothing more than we did in May and are not closer to a end point.
A general fatigue is certain to set in.
I said a few weeks ago that we have just accepted 1k deaths a day as normal. I said at the time I wasn’t make a judgement either way - just kind of a fact.
Around July 23rd we were just under 150k - a month later 180k - pretty much a 1k deaths a day. Thankfully it does look like we will get down to 500-750 deaths a day in a couple weeks but I’m not sure we are prepared for what will happen this winter. We will almost definitely be over 200k for the year, maybe 225k.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Testing is so jacked up I have no idea if it really is everywhere or not. We're heading for 100 million tests as a nation. I can't believe 1/3 of the population has actually been tested so not sure who they are testing or how that effects case counts. I've read that people getting tested multiple times to get clear tests for jobs/schools/sports, etc. count as a "case" every time they get a positive. There has to be multiple tests happening to be at almost 100 million tests. How many of those multiple tests are counting as "new cases"?
A lot of false positives and negatives reported. Also this from the CDC site: "Data to date show that a person who has had and recovered from COVID-19 may have low levels of virus in their bodies for up to 3 months after diagnosis. This means that if the person who has recovered from COVID-19 is retested within 3 months of initial infection, they may continue to have a positive test result, even though they are not spreading COVID-19." So there can be hundreds of "cases" a day from people who can't spread the virus? Not sure how that is a helpful data point.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html
Hospitalizations also down and I tend to think that is probably the only number to be looking at to determine prevalence or risk at this point. Cases have been spiking here in IL for a couple months and deaths have remained fairly low and static here despite ILDH's counting every death that is COVID + as a COVID death regardless of cause. From the head of the IL Department of Health:
"If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death."
https://week.com/2020/04/20/idph-director-explains-how-covid-deaths-are-classified/
None of this really helps assess the true risk or the scope of the pandemic in communities. It is amazing that there isn't more clarity or a better process in place after all these months. CDC is pounding the table for schools to open but local health departments not agreeing with that directive. Flatten the curve morphing into needing zero cases. No real consensus on policy from any expert.
I'm not on the conspiracy train, so I have to believe this whole debacle is just a tour de force of incompetence. Just a colossal failure of leadership at all levels. But when I read things like the IL governor's family owning stakes in two testing companies, makes me wonder if there is a level of corruption or greed going on too. Dunno. People are just caught in the middle wondering what is really going on.
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Otis
Footballguy
Those Florida numbers are encouraging. I mean, if Florida can get this right...
Seriously though, seems like it’s improving virtually everywhere. Some blips with some schools having to shut down after some outbreaks, but overall is it possible we’ve turned the corner and it will be smooth sailing this Fall?
Osaurus
Footballguy
top dog
Footballguy
My coworker who tested positive (as well as his son who works with us) that lost his wife to to COVID in April just said that his elderly mother who is in a nursing home has tested positive for COVID and running a 103 degree fever. :(
Absolutely horrible how much this disease has hit this family.
Absolutely horrible how much this disease has hit this family.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Awful, sorry to hear that. People losing loved ones, there shouldn’t be any debate about how real, how contagious, and how devastating this disease can be.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
That headline is pretty misleading, as they’re lumping flu and pneumonia deaths together. But the headline is “Flu now killing five times more than Covid-19”.
Pneumonia is a disease caused by many different pathogens, including bacteria, fungi and viruses. In the US, pneumonia kills a few thousand people every week, usually between 2-5K, and occasionally in excess of 10,000.
Influenza typically kills much fewer people, with a maximum of 1626 in one week over the last 7 years of US surveillance data. Deaths are often single digits/week over the summer months, with 0 flu deaths reported for the last week on record, ending August 20. Data here
While it’s great pneumonia and flu deaths are down in the UK (just as they are in the US), I think the headline has a political agenda that undermines management of the pandemic. Effectively, they are feeding the “just a flu” crowd and encouraging a return to business as usual despite cases resurging. More importantly, new cases and healthcare resource utilization (hospital/ICU beds) are far more important metrics than Covid deaths. Why? Because new cases are predictive of eventual hospitalization, and bed status gives an idea when hospitals will be overwhelmed.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
That’s probably a failure of local public health/infection control personnel, or a consequence of capitalism exploiting fear. Were there outbreaks at either facility?
Sand
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/ has a lot of new content this morning. It had started to go a little stale.
More or less a random selection of the highlights, below:
Discussion on how the six strains of CV19 have remained stable.  Good news for vax.
Very detailed regression based analysis of death factors, highlighting how we still lack agents to fight against inflammatory marker TNF-alpha.  
Lessons learned from the overestimation of death rates early in the epidemic.  Good fuel for the WaitTwoWeeks crowd, if nothing else.
Further refining of the CFR/IFR of diabetes (type2) and hypertension suffers. &nbsp
Worse than thought)
List of labs working towards neutralizing antibody antivirals (a ton of them) and how they are doing it.
More or less a random selection of the highlights, below:
Discussion on how the six strains of CV19 have remained stable.  Good news for vax.
Very detailed regression based analysis of death factors, highlighting how we still lack agents to fight against inflammatory marker TNF-alpha.  
Lessons learned from the overestimation of death rates early in the epidemic.  Good fuel for the WaitTwoWeeks crowd, if nothing else.
Further refining of the CFR/IFR of diabetes (type2) and hypertension suffers. &nbsp
Worse than thought)List of labs working towards neutralizing antibody antivirals (a ton of them) and how they are doing it.
beer 30
Footballguy
According to my FB feed, OH & SC have plenty left. Luckily in both states, they are predicting the virus will be wiped out by November 5th so there's that.
The virus will be gone in Ohio on Nov 5th and so will Dewine.
https://www.whio.com/news/politics/conservative-lawmakers-file-articles-impeachment-against-gov-dewine/DD2RRYXTCNEL3AEMJD4SZOD6PA/
The Commish
Footballguy
Even up here in CF, I think we're at 4.8 or 4.9%.....tons of unnecessary pain to get here, but it looks like we might be, finally, cresting the hill....well until all the people come backSoBeDad said:
