What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

Also, for those who are convinced we have done a terrible job with the rollout of the vaccine, here's what they are saying in Germany: https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-story-kiel/

It's even worse in Switzerland.  France is just starting to get going.  Canada is much slower than the US. 

BTW we hit a million doses yesterday according to the Bloomberg Tracker.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
worrierking said:
Also, for those who are convinced we have done a terrible job with the rollout of the vaccine, here's what they are saying in Germany: https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-story-kiel/

It's even worse in Switzerland.  France is just starting to get going.  Canada is much slower than the US. 

BTW we hit a million doses yesterday according to the Bloomberg Tracker.  
Click to expand...
The WaPo website had 11.1M vaccine doses yesterday but somehow only 10.6M today. Weird. 

 
Doug B said:
It's critical to read this article to evaluate -- the headline is very misleading if read without context and detail. I turned your post into a link.

Short version - scroll to the end:
Click to expand...
I get it but my concerns were more centered around:

 apparently related to the side effects of the shots, health officials said.
Click to expand...
and

While officials aren’t expressing serious concern, they are adjusting their guidance on who should receive the vaccine.
Click to expand...

 
People shouldn't be reading a story like that on the NY Post and start thinking "Dang ... I probably have a one in four chance of dying from that vaccine!" Not nearly so.

 
It may be a coincidence, but we aren’t sure,” Steinar Madsen, medical director of the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NOMA), told The BMJ. “There is no certain connection between these deaths and the vaccine.”

The agency has investigated 13 of the deaths so far and concluded that common adverse reactions of mRNA vaccines, such as fever, nausea, and diarrhoea, may have contributed to fatal outcomes in some of the frail patients.

“There is a possibility that these common adverse reactions, that are not dangerous in fitter, younger patients and are not unusual with vaccines, may aggravate underlying disease in the elderly,” Madsen said. “We are not alarmed or worried about this, because these are very rare occurrences and they occurred in very frail patients with very serious disease,” he emphasised. “We are now asking for doctors to continue with the vaccination, but to carry out extra evaluation of very sick people whose underlying condition might be aggravated by it.” This evaluation includes discussing the risks and benefits of vaccination with the patient and their families to decide whether or not vaccination is the best course. 

They were also all over 80

 
So if the person is very frail or already terminally ill, they maybe shouldn't get the vaccine.  Sounds reasonable.

Use that does on an immunocompromised 50 year old. 

 
jobarules said:
I actually do know someone who had their adult son die of cancer in June. The hospital asked her if they could list cause of death as Covid on his death certificate and he didn't even have covid. She said no. I guess she could be lying to me though. 
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure we already had someone post earlier in this thread (person who actually distributes the funds) that stated it is false that a hospital gets any more or less base on the cause of death. That, in fact, the cause of death isn't even included in the paperwork. COVID may allow access to grants or something for PPE, etc. But saying a hospital gets more for a COVID death is bunk. Unfortunately this thread is way to large for me to track that post down.

 
DallasDMac said:
I'm pretty sure we already had someone post earlier in this thread (person who actually distributes the funds) that stated it is false that a hospital gets any more or less base on the cause of death. That, in fact, the cause of death isn't even included in the paperwork. COVID may allow access to grants or something for PPE, etc. But saying a hospital gets more for a COVID death is bunk. Unfortunately this thread is way to large for me to track that post down.
Click to expand...
You get 20% more from a medicare to treat

 
[icon] said:
Just Loopholed my way into getting the Moderna vaccine in Starkville Mississippi…

My appointment is in three hours, leaving now… Should be there with 30 minutes to spare.
Click to expand...
What loophole?

FTR, I’m not a fan of people gaming the system, as it often results in downstream/unanticipated consequences.

ETA I see the question was already answered.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Doug B said:
[Jules]

"English, ************ !! Do you speak it ?!?!"  :D  

[/Jules]

...

This makes me wonder two things:

a) if testing of a person's gut biota alone could ever be a useful COVID-19 infection identification tool. And ...

b) if pre-infection differences in individuals' gut biota has any effect whatsoever on the severity of a COVID-19. If so, it might help explain why people who are superficially similar (e.g. siblings close in age with similar body types and health profiles) can sometimes (if infrequently) have such varying reactions to the virus.
Click to expand...
A) Unlikely relative nucleic acid based testing, but get in line with about a bazillion other disease states where the gut microbiome is being investigated.

B) Maybe, but more likely the microbiota of the upper aerodigestive tract are involved, as covid-19 is first and foremost an upper respiratory tract infection (as opposed to a GI infection that spreads to airways, even though GI flora do play a big role in overall health).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
jobarules said:
I actually do know someone who had their adult son die of cancer in June. The hospital asked her if they could list cause of death as Covid on his death certificate and he didn't even have covid. She said no. I guess she could be lying to me though. 
Click to expand...
I’d be shocked if that story is true, unless she is leaving out some info.

ETA Who does she think won the election?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
CletiusMaximus said:
The thing that confuses me with these articles is use of the term "lockdown."  Apologies if this dead horse has been beaten in this thread, which I've only followed tangentially.  The sentence from the Newsweek article - "The study compared cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the U.S. – all countries that implemented mandatory lockdown orders and business closures – to South Korea and Sweden, which implemented less severe, voluntary responses."

When and where did we ever have a "lockdown" in this country?  I know we never had one in my state.  Many states have never even had form of mandatory business closure, mask orders, etc., much less a "lockdown."  My state had limited business closures and people were encouraged to "shelter in place" but there was never anything remotely approaching the kind of lockdowns I read about in China and Italy.  I would say the majority of businesses, (including bars and restaurants) throughout most of my state have operated very nearly business as usual the past 9 months.

For the most part, the changes made to the day to day in my state have been "voluntary measures."
Click to expand...
Exactly! The US has never been locked down. Not even close.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Maybe, but more likely the microbiota of the upper aerodigestive tract are involved, as covid-19 is first and foremost an upper respiratory tract infection (as opposed to a GI infection that spreads to airways, even though GI flora do play a big role in overall health).
Click to expand...
In the beginning of the pandemic one of the first symptoms reported by some people was diarrhea. 

 
Dezbelief said:
In the beginning of the pandemic one of the first symptoms reported by some people was diarrhea. 
Click to expand...
Yes, I'm aware. Also, there was a question of whether it can be spread via the fecal-oral route, and those with GI symptoms have a worse prognosis.

That doesn't change my point though. Believe me, the gut microbiome has been a buzzword in medicine the last couple years, so much that it's implicated in everything. 

 
Thoughts from the (kinda) front line of COVID vaccination:

We’ve only been doing 20 shots a day but it’s left us completely overwhelmed. The shots themselves are not a problem, but the calls and questions are never ending. In the last two days I’ve worked 35 hours (22 hours paid). While we’re doing the shots none of our other work gets done. My staff and myself barely have been able to eat or take bathroom breaks until we close to the public 

Retail pharmacies have been offered up as a solution to the distribution problem because of our experience during flu season but that doesn’t take into account that most are severely understaffed and still are expected to do our normal work. The nightmare experience we’ve had will likely put us at a first week total of 120 doses. The thought of increasing that any more gives anxiety. To contrast that, I’m setting up a clinic at the retirement community that’s been calling us non-stop. During a 4 hour clinic there I think I can realistically do 300 doses with the help of 2 other immunizers and group of volunteers. It will take several hours of processing but in one afternoon at a clinic, I’ll be able to do more than I can in 2 weeks in the pharmacy.

We also have other clinics that will get us thousands of doses administered in the upcoming weeks. Mass vaccination clinics are definitely the way to go.

And through the hell of the last two days, little moments have made it all worth it. I’ve taken pictures with a few of the patients, some of told me that I might save their life and last night I was able to squeeze in an elderly couple for an appointment today. Their relief and appreciation put tears in my eyes at the end of a bad day.

 
Biff84 said:
And through the hell of the last two days, little moments have made it all worth it. I’ve taken pictures with a few of the patients, some of told me that I might save their life and last night I was able to squeeze in an elderly couple for an appointment today. Their relief and appreciation put tears in my eyes at the end of a bad day.
Click to expand...
I felt I failed my FIL, but I got my wife's Aunt and Uncle on a list and they got their first shots a couple of days later. It brought tears to my wife's Aunt and myself too. I had an antibody test done and came up positive. I am waiting on my shot until those without confirmed antibodies have gone first. I told the two stores I contract with that I will gladly take a shot that is going to be wasted. I got a call one night about a shot that was about to be wasted. I had just spoken to a customer of theirs that wanted a shot but wasn't on any waiting lists. I got back in contact with her and she was able to get that shot. I have since started my own list if either store calls again about a shot about to be wasted. It feels so good to not be completely powerless anymore and to be able to actually help people again.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Biff84 said:
We also have other clinics that will get us thousands of doses administered in the upcoming weeks. Mass vaccination clinics are definitely the way to go.
Click to expand...
I think and hope you're right. Just makes so much more sense from a workflow standpoint. 

My county opened a vaccination site in the gym of its community college. That's where I'll be getting mine. 

 
Last night on the Flyers broadcast, I heard the announcer say "we wish a speedy recovery to [name of ex-coworker that I'm friends with]". He had been a sportswriter before he worked at my company and had been a Flyers beat writer.

I searched on FB and yep, he's in the hospital with COVID. He responded to my DM today, so at least he's well enough to do that. 

 
Terminalxylem said:
Exactly! The US has never been locked down. Not even close.
Click to expand...
Well, of course 'lockdown' is an arbitrary term, and there is a wide spectrum of what it could mean.

But with that said, MY state has been more 'locked-down' than at any point in its entire existence, so you can't dismiss what has been done. Someone up-thread questioned where we've locked down in this country, and my answer is Illinois. 

If your belief that the only thing that qualifies as a lockdown is welding people into apartment buildings that's your prerogative.

 
It's amazing how inept SA has been at scheduling vaccines. They supposedly open up the website each day to schedule two days out. Yet I have never seen the site active. The phone system logged 350k calls but only managed to schedule under 2.5k out of 9k available. It's ludicrous how poorly this has gone. I've been totally incapable of getting does 2 scheduled.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
DallasDMac said:
It's amazing how inept SA has been at scheduling vaccines. They supposedly open up the website each day to schedule two days out. Yet I have never seen the site active. The phone system logged 350k calls but only managed to schedule under 2.5k out of 9k available. It's ludicrous how poorly this has gone. I've been totally incapable of getting does 2 scheduled.
Click to expand...
Yeah, need way better coordination and some big time relief. Call in the national guard.

 
Waited on hold an hour and forty min but got thru about 3 min before the call line shut down for the day. The intro message said no appts available but I was able to get my 2nd shot scheduled. They must be holding doses for round 2.

 
Specific info that might not matter to anyone here.... If you are in health care and stuck on a list, consider trying in all states you are licensed in. I keep hearing the medical people (friends) who are licensed in other states are just crossing the border and getting it when our own state is backed up and taking forever. 

 
From a SC Senator from my area, he sends out a monthly newsletter that's actually helpful and not full of "look what I did"

Covid-19 Vaccinations:

Much of my time over the past two weeks has been spent talking about ways to better roll out the Covid-19 vaccination. This is a fluid situation, with information changing almost hourly. Please go to the SCDHEC website for up to date information.

South Carolina faces two obstacles in administering the vaccine: (1) a lack of vaccines and (2) the inability to distribute the vaccine that we do have. South Carolina is receiving roughly 30,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine per week which is currently slated for people within the 1a category. In many counties the hospitals are not able to distribute the vaccine as they are overwhelmed treating Covid patients.

None of this excuses the fact that we need to do more to distribute the vaccine. In Lancaster County, MUSC Lancaster is distributing shots directly from their medical campus. Everyone over age 70 may schedule a time to be seen. Lancaster County Emergency Management is assisting MUSC Lancaster with this process and has requested that the SC National Guard support the effort with two additional medics. MUSC will be operating 5 days a week, 8:00-5:00. Additionally, Mackey Family Practice will be distributing doses of the vaccine at their Lancaster and Indian Land offices. Again, you must register online and make an appointment.

In York County, Piedmont Medical Center is currently giving out 400 doses per day. Due to staff restrictions they are unable to do more than that. I have worked with Senator Wes Climer, DHEC, and Piedmont Medical Center to open a second clinic to supply additional vaccinations. The hope is that this clinic will be fully operational by January 24th and will be able to give out 1,000 shots per day, 5 days a week. The clinic will also be by appointment only. As soon as the plans for this clinic are available I will let you know.

The demand for this vaccine is high. If you want to take the vaccine you need to go to the DHEC website and schedule an appointment. Lastly, I take this virus very seriously. Both of my parents have had Covid (my mother was hospitalized for 4 days), my 100-year old grandfather was recently diagnosed with Covid (he is only showing mild symptoms), and both of my children in college had Covid during the fall. I have seen first hand the effects it can have. I am working every day to make sure that everyone who wants this vaccine has the opportunity to take it. For those that do not want to take the vaccine, or want to wait to take the vaccine, that is your right. The State of South Carolina is not going to require anyone to take a vaccine that they do not want to take.

 
beer 30 said:
The demand for this vaccine is high. If you want to take the vaccine you need to go to the DHEC website and schedule an appointment. Lastly, I take this virus very seriously. Both of my parents have had Covid (my mother was hospitalized for 4 days), my 100-year old grandfather was recently diagnosed with Covid (he is only showing mild symptoms), and both of my children in college had Covid during the fall. I have seen first hand the effects it can have. I am working every day to make sure that everyone who wants this vaccine has the opportunity to take it. For those that do not want to take the vaccine, or want to wait to take the vaccine, that is your right. The State of South Carolina is not going to require anyone to take a vaccine that they do not want to take.
Click to expand...
Sounds like your Senator was in the group of people who believed COVID was a hoax and he and his family took zero precautions?

 
Biff84 said:
Thoughts from the (kinda) front line of COVID vaccination:

We’ve only been doing 20 shots a day but it’s left us completely overwhelmed. The shots themselves are not a problem, but the calls and questions are never ending. In the last two days I’ve worked 35 hours (22 hours paid). While we’re doing the shots none of our other work gets done. My staff and myself barely have been able to eat or take bathroom breaks until we close to the public 

Retail pharmacies have been offered up as a solution to the distribution problem because of our experience during flu season but that doesn’t take into account that most are severely understaffed and still are expected to do our normal work. The nightmare experience we’ve had will likely put us at a first week total of 120 doses. The thought of increasing that any more gives anxiety. To contrast that, I’m setting up a clinic at the retirement community that’s been calling us non-stop. During a 4 hour clinic there I think I can realistically do 300 doses with the help of 2 other immunizers and group of volunteers. It will take several hours of processing but in one afternoon at a clinic, I’ll be able to do more than I can in 2 weeks in the pharmacy.

We also have other clinics that will get us thousands of doses administered in the upcoming weeks. Mass vaccination clinics are definitely the way to go.

And through the hell of the last two days, little moments have made it all worth it. I’ve taken pictures with a few of the patients, some of told me that I might save their life and last night I was able to squeeze in an elderly couple for an appointment today. Their relief and appreciation put tears in my eyes at the end of a bad day.
Click to expand...
Yeah, CVS and Walgreens are responsible for vaccinating everyone in NJ’s long term care facilities. That doesn’t even make sense to me.

 
I forget what the moderators feel about posting paywall content.  If this is not allowed please remove:

Early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.

Their motivation was mostly good. It sprung from a concern that people would rush to buy high-grade medical masks, leaving too few for doctors and nurses. The experts were also unsure how much ordinary masks would help.

But the message was still a mistake.

It confused people. (If masks weren’t effective, why did doctors and nurses need them?) It delayed the widespread use of masks (even though there was good reason to believe they could help). And it damaged the credibility of public health experts.

“When people feel as though they may not be getting the full truth from the authorities, snake-oil sellers and price gougers have an easier time,” the sociologist Zeynep Tufekci wrote early last year.

Now a version of the mask story is repeating itself — this time involving the vaccines. Once again, the experts don’t seem to trust the public to hear the full truth.

Refer someone to The Times.

They’ll enjoy our special rate of $1 a week.

This issue is important and complex enough that I’m going to make today’s newsletter a bit longer than usual. If you still have questions, don’t hesitate to email me at themorning@nytimes.com.

‘Ridiculously encouraging’

Right now, public discussion of the vaccines is full of warnings about their limitations: They’re not 100 percent effective. Even vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus. And people shouldn’t change their behavior once they get their shots.

These warnings have a basis in truth, just as it’s true that masks are imperfect. But the sum total of the warnings is misleading, as I heard from multiple doctors and epidemiologists last week.

“It’s driving me a little bit crazy,” Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown School of Public Health, told me.

Editors’ Picks

A Farewell to the Trump Aesthetic

‘I Literally Had No One.’ Then the Foster Kittens Arrived.

“We’re underselling the vaccine,” Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, said.

“It’s going to save your life — that’s where the emphasis has to be right now,” Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine said.

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are “essentially 100 percent effective against serious disease,” Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said. “It’s ridiculously encouraging.”

The details

Here’s my best attempt at summarizing what we know:

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines — the only two approved in the U.S. — are among the best vaccines ever created, with effectiveness rates of about 95 percent after two doses. That’s on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. And a vaccine doesn’t even need to be so effective to reduce cases sharply and crush a pandemic.

If anything, the 95 percent number understates the effectiveness, because it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, do you want to guess how many contracted a severe Covid case? One.

Although no rigorous study has yet analyzed whether vaccinated people can spread the virus, it would be surprising if they did. “If there is an example of a vaccine in widespread clinical use that has this selective effect — prevents disease but not infection — I can’t think of one!” Dr. Paul Sax of Harvard has written in The New England Journal of Medicine. (And, no, exclamation points are not common in medical journals.) On Twitter, Dr. Monica Gandhi of the University of California, San Francisco, argued: “Please be assured that YOU ARE SAFE after vaccine from what matters — disease and spreading.”

The risks for vaccinated people are still not zero, because almost nothing in the real world is zero risk. A tiny percentage of people may have allergic reactions. And I’ll be eager to see what the studies on post-vaccination spread eventually show. But the evidence so far suggests that the vaccines are akin to a cure.

Offit told me we should be greeting them with the same enthusiasm that greeted the polio vaccine: “It should be this rallying cry.”

Image

A medical worker receiving the Moderna vaccine in Jersey City, N.J.Credit...Bryan Anselm for The New York Times

The costs of negativity

Why are many experts conveying a more negative message?

Again, their motivations are mostly good. As academic researchers, they are instinctively cautious, prone to emphasizing any uncertainty. Many may also be nervous that vaccinated people will stop wearing masks and social distancing, which in turn could cause unvaccinated people to stop as well. If that happens, deaths would soar even higher.

OPINION TODAY: Get expert analysis of the news and a guide to the big ideas shaping the world.

Sign Up

But the best way to persuade people to behave safely usually involves telling them the truth. “Not being completely open because you want to achieve some sort of behavioral public health goal — people will see through that eventually,” Richterman said. The current approach also feeds anti-vaccine skepticism and conspiracy theories.

After asking Richterman and others what a better public message might sound like, I was left thinking about something like this:

We should immediately be more aggressive about mask-wearing and social distancing because of the new virus variants. We should vaccinate people as rapidly as possible — which will require approving other Covid vaccines when the data justifies it.

People who have received both of their vaccine shots, and have waited until they take effect, will be able to do things that unvaccinated people cannot — like having meals together and hugging their grandchildren. But until the pandemic is defeated, all Americans should wear masks in public, help unvaccinated people stay safe and contribute to a shared national project of saving every possible life.
Click to expand...
https://www.nejm.org/covid-vaccine/faq

https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1347988651179798530

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/absolutely-remarkable-no-one-who-got-modernas-vaccine-trial-developed-severe-covid-19

 
DallasDMac said:
Sounds like your Senator was in the group of people who believed COVID was a hoax and he and his family took zero precautions?
Click to expand...
To the contrary, he's been ahead of it from the get go. SC hasn't exactly been on the forefront of fighting the virus but Senator Johnson has been a proponent of harder measures but we have a good ole boy, it's not that big a deal governor so you can only do so much. 

 
beer 30 said:
To the contrary, he's been ahead of it from the get go. SC hasn't exactly been on the forefront of fighting the virus but Senator Johnson has been a proponent of harder measures but we have a good ole boy, it's not that big a deal governor so you can only do so much. 
Click to expand...
Surprising. Wonder why it hit his family so hard then? Seems like a lot of infection for anyone taking precautions.

 
culdeus said:
I forget what the moderators feel about posting paywall content.  If this is not allowed please remove:

https://www.nejm.org/covid-vaccine/faq

https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1347988651179798530

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/absolutely-remarkable-no-one-who-got-modernas-vaccine-trial-developed-severe-covid-19
Click to expand...
Got this email from the times and was going to post it too. At least the whole "the science changed" narrative seems to be put to rest re:masks. 

 
DallasDMac said:
Surprising. Wonder why it hit his family so hard then? Seems like a lot of infection for anyone taking precautions.
Click to expand...
Had a lot to do with him running a campaign to get elected to the Senate (took office November 9th, 2020) during a pandemic would be my guess  :shrug:

College students catching COVID shouldn't be a shock to anyone. Mine goes to USC and wile she is careful & has so far avoided it, a very large chunk of the student population simply said #### it and almost shut the school down in September/October.

His parents? I don't know but they are older and I know supported him on the campaign. I think he's around 46-47 so his parents are probably mid to late 60's? 100 year old grandad, I mean all these older folks kinda check the box of being in the susceptible category so wouldn't judge too much.

 
culdeus said:
I forget what the moderators feel about posting paywall content.  If this is not allowed please remove:

https://www.nejm.org/covid-vaccine/faq

https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1347988651179798530

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/absolutely-remarkable-no-one-who-got-modernas-vaccine-trial-developed-severe-covid-19
Click to expand...
That’s a free email they sent out so not paid content. I 100% agree with it, they need to get commercials out advertising how effective this is. So infuriating. 

 
T-minus 2 hours for my dose #1. Talked to a friend who had COVID about 4 months ago. A mild case, but did lose taste and smell for about 4-6 weeks. She got her dose #1 this morning (same one I am getting) and almost immediately got a metallic taste in her mouth and has lost her taste and smell, not completely this time but noticeably deadened senses. Otherwise feeling fine. I just thought that was interesting. 

 
Calling it that Wednesday Jan 20th is the day, not because the inauguration, but because we are 3 weeks clear of NYE, where we start to see sustained progress in cases, deaths, and ICU % full.  The vax will begin to take over, and like many places on the world we are on track to see perhaps equity between cases and vax somewhere in the Valentine's day range where the trends will accelerate and this thread will for the first time find it's way to Page 3.  But it's over, we won.  

It was a good run, this thing showed both the best and worst that humanity had to offer.  That when pushed and with enough cash and brains we can solve every problem.  In a way it should give us all hope we can solve climate change.  

The lives changed and lost are beyond tragic. And honestly, no I don't think it could have been much worse.  

 
I had almost given up hope getting my wife scheduled for a vaccine when, out of the blue, the nursing home where her father resides called and offered her a shot as a caregiver. Each resident has up to two caregivers and she and her brother are the caregivers for her dad. They are the only ones that have been allowed to visit him since the lockdown at the home. I am so grateful to have one less thing to worry about. Assuming the doses actually show up that is.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
You're a few months behind on this one:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/12/covid-masks-protect-wearers/

The way we (the collective "we") handled masks could be a case study in how not to handle a public health issue.
Click to expand...
I seem to recall some of us in here getting our feet held over the fire for advocating masks early on. :unsure:  

Jokes aside, how we've handled this has been an absolute disgrace and likely set our public back collectively in preparedness for the next/worse round. 

 
culdeus said:
Calling it that Wednesday Jan 20th is the day, not because the inauguration, but because we are 3 weeks clear of NYE, where we start to see sustained progress in cases, deaths, and ICU % full.  The vax will begin to take over, and like many places on the world we are on track to see perhaps equity between cases and vax somewhere in the Valentine's day range where the trends will accelerate and this thread will for the first time find it's way to Page 3.  But it's over, we won.  

It was a good run, this thing showed both the best and worst that humanity had to offer.  That when pushed and with enough cash and brains we can solve every problem.  In a way it should give us all hope we can solve climate change.  

The lives changed and lost are beyond tragic. And honestly, no I don't think it could have been much worse.  
Click to expand...
I hope you're right, but my expectations are tempered. I don't think we will see any sense of normalcy until summer at the earliest. My daughter has a wedding scheduled for September. We are going to revisit things at the end of April/May to re-evaluate and make a determination if it will be safe to go forward or if we need to push it back to 2022. The vaccine roll out hasn't been too spectacular around here. They were supposed to open it up to 65+ today, but my father who is 86 still can't get a scheduled vaccine anywhere yet. 

 
top dog said:
I hope you're right, but my expectations are tempered. I don't think we will see any sense of normalcy until summer at the earliest. My daughter has a wedding scheduled for September. We are going to revisit things at the end of April/May to re-evaluate and make a determination if it will be safe to go forward or if we need to push it back to 2022. The vaccine roll out hasn't been too spectacular around here. They were supposed to open it up to 65+ today, but my father who is 86 still can't get a scheduled vaccine anywhere yet. 
Click to expand...
I’ve always assumed that once we do finally start reaching herd immunity that things will get better rather quickly.  I think culdeus date of 1/20 may be way too soon for that but I get what he’s saying with sustained progress -  if we can really start dropping the new daily cases and deaths that would be good news.

 
We haven’t talked in awhile about what we think the real case number is.  We are closing quick on 25M cases - how much higher do we think the true case count is?  I know awhile back there was speculation of 3-5x that many. Has there been any good information on that?

 
culdeus said:
Calling it that Wednesday Jan 20th is the day, not because the inauguration, but because we are 3 weeks clear of NYE, where we start to see sustained progress in cases, deaths, and ICU % full.  The vax will begin to take over, and like many places on the world we are on track to see perhaps equity between cases and vax somewhere in the Valentine's day range where the trends will accelerate and this thread will for the first time find it's way to Page 3.  But it's over, we won.  

It was a good run, this thing showed both the best and worst that humanity had to offer.  That when pushed and with enough cash and brains we can solve every problem.  In a way it should give us all hope we can solve climate change.  

The lives changed and lost are beyond tragic. And honestly, no I don't think it could have been much worse.  
Click to expand...
I have been reluctant to say anything but it appears cases began falling some time about ten days ago or so.  I think your time line is probably correct.  The only thing standing in the way is the potential for the new strains to keep cases from falling as fast as they otherwise would have.  

 
worrierking said:
The only thing standing in the way is the potential for the new strains to keep cases from falling as fast as they otherwise would have.  
Click to expand...
My wife told me about some modeling that suggested that the new, more infectious strain (the one ravaging the UK and Ireland) is doubling its prevalence vs other strains daily.  We are something like 3-4 weeks away from our becoming the dominant strain.  So certainly the potential exists for the case rate to continue to accelerate even with increased vaccinations, particularly so in places where vaccination isn't reaching a large % of the population yet. 

 
AAABatteries said:
We haven’t talked in awhile about what we think the real case number is.  We are closing quick on 25M cases - how much higher do we think the true case count is?  I know awhile back there was speculation of 3-5x that many. Has there been any good information on that?
Click to expand...
The CFR/IFR ratio is still estimated to be about 4, AFAIK.  That doesn't automatically mean that there were 4x as many cases.  

 
The Z Machine said:
My wife told me about some modeling that suggested that the new, more infectious strain (the one ravaging the UK and Ireland) is doubling its prevalence vs other strains daily.  We are something like 3-4 weeks away from our becoming the dominant strain.  So certainly the potential exists for the case rate to continue to accelerate even with increased vaccinations, particularly so in places where vaccination isn't reaching a large % of the population yet. 
Click to expand...
You are correct. I am still optimistic.  Both the UK and Ireland have seen fewer cases the last couple of weeks.  That shows the new strains are not simply going to run out-of-control.  Hopefully we get enough people vaccinated to prevent any major issues with the new strains.  Also, while the evidence that the new strains spread more quickly is solid, the fact that it is being shown to be controllable may mean the initial estimates of 50-70% more infectious may prove to be too high.  

Worrierqueen gets her first shot of the Pfizer vaccine tomorrow.

 
worrierking said:
You are correct. I am still optimistic.  Both the UK and Ireland have seen fewer cases the last couple of weeks.  That shows the new strains are not simply going to run out-of-control.  Hopefully we get enough people vaccinated to prevent any major issues with the new strains.  Also, while the evidence that the new strains spread more quickly is solid, the fact that it is being shown to be controllable may mean the initial estimates of 50-70% more infectious may prove to be too high.  

Worrierqueen gets her first shot of the Pfizer vaccine tomorrow.
Click to expand...
This new strain stuff has been a nothingburger so far.  You can't point to a single spike in cases from this new strain that looks any different than any other spike.  

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
Coronavirus prevention
Replies
4
Views
324
JaxBill
JaxBill
nirad3
COVID-19 / CoronaVirus - terms/phrases
Replies
35
Views
623
Galileo
Galileo
Joe Bryant
Scared to ask but don't have anywhere else - Clay Travis Article?
2
Replies
71
Views
3K
roadkill1292
roadkill1292

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 13 (members: 0, guests: 13)
Top