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20 minutes ago, krista4 said:

What are you talking about, my friend?

1.  I said nothing about Fauci and have no idea what you're talking about.

2-3.  Could definitely be true.  In fact, the chaos is likely leaving it to individual states, which is why I'm speaking to my individual experience in my state.

4.  How the hell would you possibly know about what's going on in Washington?  You can put "horror stories" in quotes as much as you wish, which doesn't change the experience of the people here.  I signed up for a Facebook group this weekend that just tracks people looking for vaccines and people who are scouring the possibilities to find what's available.  Since I was "good at" finding vaccines I thought maybe I could help others.  "Horror stories" are exactly what I've been reading.  People in their 80s who are internet savvy and still unable to find a vaccine more than six weeks later.  What your parents experienced in WI(?) is completely inapplicable and irrelevant to my post about Washington.  Good for them that they were incompetent yet successful.  That's not the experience here.  And by the way, you are contradicting your own crap above and below since you already indicated it's state-specific.

Seriously, WTF?  I invite you to join this FB group and try to find vaccines for people, since it's so easy.  Let me know if you want the link.

Ok, I’ll take my own deep breaths.  Please accept my sincere apology.  I would never deliberately try to offend you.  It’s my own fault for attempting to convey coherent thoughts (in writing, my worst form of communication!) at 11pm.

On #1, I definitely wasn’t referring to you.  It was a comment that popped into my brain while reading posts before yours.  Nothing to do with you, everything to do with all the Fauci haters out there.  

On #4, again, I’ll just apologize for my comment.  I’m not in Washington state, and don’t claim to know the situation there anywhere near as well as you.

Once again, I’m glad your mom and stepfather are vaccinated.  Peace.

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This is going to be a one off post because I don't want to get trolled or banned but if I were American, the context of Canada would be the biggest damning fact of how things have been handled in the

Australia has had months of little to no community spread and even then it was confined to one state. By and large Australians are running around doing the right thing, sport was and is still hap

I am confident we are going to hit >750K deaths.  I think it might be a million.  I don't post a ton but I'm an ER doc in a big city. This is by far the worse I've seen since the pandemic star

8 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

The problem is still vaccine supply. The current schedule for new doses will have enough for everyone who wants one pretty soon.

I do understand how supply and demand work.  My point, as I expect tonydead's was but shouldn't speak for him, is the utter chaos of distribution of the supply that is in Washington.  Basically some doses are rumored to become available sometime soon.  Then everyone goes to the website of that place and tried to sign up. 

But here, it is also based on county.  Each county is in a different phase - recently my county was vaccinating people 65+, but my two neighboring counties were only 70+ and 75+, respectively. So you have to know those rules.   And then, each county has different rules about whether they will allow people from other counties to come in for vaccines or will only vaccinate their own residents.  So you have to know those rules.  And then, each health system that gets vaccines has different rules about whom they will vaccinate - some will only do it for existing patients.  Some will do it for anyone.  So you have to know those rules.  And then as each different place gets an allotment, they have different rules for how to register.  Some have waiting lists, some don't.  Some had appointments go on in a big batch, but each separate hospital had a different registration, so you had to go to each one separately to see if they had appointments, and as you are unsuccessfully trying to get one that goes unavailable, you miss out on the others.  Some had an open day where everything went into the system at once.  This is how I got my mom's appointment, by going on at 10 a.m. when it was supposed to open and then using my FBG-tuned F5 skills to keep refreshing when it didn't go online right when it was supposed to.  My mom and others went at the same time and struck out, but I got the appointments for them.

But yeah, as APK pointed out, it's just easy.

Edited by krista4
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Just now, krista4 said:

I do understand how supply and demand work.  My point, as I expect tonydead's was but shouldn't speak for him, is the utter chaos of distribution of the supply that is in Washington.  Basically some doses are rumored to become available sometime soon.  Then everyone goes to the website of that place and tried to sign up. 

But here, it is also based on county.  Each county is in a different phase - recently my county was vaccinating people 65+, but my two neighboring counties were only 70+ and 75+, respectively.  And then, each county has different rules about whether they will allow people from other counties to come in for vaccines or will only vaccinate their own residents.  So you have to know those rules.  And then, each health system that gets vaccines has different rules about whom they will vaccinate - some will only do it for existing patients.  Some will do it for anyone.  So you have to know those rules.  And then as each different place gets an allotment, they have different rules for how to register.  Some have waiting lists, some don't.  Some had appointments go on in a big batch, but each separate hospital had a different registration, so you had to go to each one separately to see if they had appointments, and as you are unsuccessfully trying to get one that goes unavailable, you miss out on the others.  Some had an open day where everything went into the system at once.  This is how I got my mom's appointment, by going on at 10 a.m. when it was supposed to open and then using my FBG-tuned F5 skills to keep refreshing when it didn't go online right when it was supposed to.  My mom and others went at the same time and struck out, but I got the appointments for them.

But yeah, as APK pointed out, it's just easy.

Just commenting that I think there is reason to be more optimistic for you getting your vaccine soon. 

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1 minute ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

Just commenting that I think there is reason to be more optimistic for you getting your vaccine soon. 

Thanks, I appreciate that.

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6 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Ok, I’ll take my own deep breaths.  Please accept my sincere apology.  I would never deliberately try to offend you.  It’s my own fault for attempting to convey coherent thoughts (in writing, my worst form of communication!) at 11pm.

On #1, I definitely wasn’t referring to you.  It was a comment that popped into my brain while reading posts before yours.  Nothing to do with you, everything to do with all the Fauci haters out there.  

On #4, again, I’ll just apologize for my comment.  I’m not in Washington state, and don’t claim to know the situation there anywhere near as well as you.

Once again, I’m glad your mom and stepfather are vaccinated.  Peace.

Accepted, of course.  And I apologize if my response was kinda mean, but it's a ridiculous system here, and I feel deeply for the people who really need this and can't get it.  Again I'm not worried about me, since I don't feel I'm at much risk and am really careful anyway.

Hopefully this will all be moot very soon!

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2 minutes ago, krista4 said:

Accepted, of course.  And I apologize if my response was kinda mean, but it's a ridiculous system here, and I feel deeply for the people who really need this and can't get it.  Again I'm not worried about me, since I don't feel I'm at much risk and am really careful anyway.

Hopefully this will all be moot very soon!

No apology needed.  All on me.

In fairness, the system in WI and IL (and MN per my BFF) isn’t particularly rational or seamless to navigate either.  My FIL spent a ton of time working through the logistics to get an early-ish appointment.  It seemed like a painful process.  At one point, Mrs APK was going to spend hours and hours on the phone (and may have done that without admitting it to me) to get the appointment for him.

My parents could have done that - but my dad has zero patience for bureaucracy or logistics (he literally wouldn’t wait on hold for 5 min to get an appointment).  So my dad waited a couple weeks, until the mad rush of folks in his age group had signed up, and he made an appointment for 6 weeks later.  (This is awhile back now)  My FIL gets dose #2 before my parents get dose #1, despite being in the same age group.  It sucks to wait 6 weeks, but they seemed ok with it.

IL is a whole different ballgame.  It’s county by county here.  Or even town by town.  Of course Evanston has its own system separate from Cook County.  🙄   Teachers from my kids’ school have been going into Chicago to get vaccinated because the hospitals, university and retirement homes have used up all the vaccine doses available.   Chicago somehow seems to be a better bet.

I can’t imagine what, say, the trucking industry would look like in this country if it used the COVID approach for logistics management.  Actually, it might look like some of the rental car companies I’ve used in the past.....

Alright, now I’m just rambling so it’s time to sleep evidently.

 

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1 minute ago, Alex P Keaton said:

No apology needed.  All on me.

In fairness, the system in WI and IL (and MN per my BFF) isn’t particularly rational or seamless to navigate either.  My FIL spent a ton of time working through the logistics to get an early-ish appointment.  It seemed like a painful process.  At one point, Mrs APK was going to spend hours and hours on the phone (and may have done that without admitting it to me) to get the appointment for him.

My parents could have done that - but my dad has zero patience for bureaucracy or logistics (he literally wouldn’t wait on hold for 5 min to get an appointment).  So my dad waited a couple weeks, until the mad rush of folks in his age group had signed up, and he made an appointment for 6 weeks later.  (This is awhile back now)  My FIL gets dose #2 before my parents get dose #1, despite being in the same age group.  It sucks to wait 6 weeks, but they seemed ok with it.

IL is a whole different ballgame.  It’s county by county here.  Or even town by town.  Of course Evanston has its own system separate from Cook County.  🙄   Teachers from my kids’ school have been going into Chicago to get vaccinated because the hospitals, university and retirement homes have used up all the vaccine doses available.   Chicago somehow seems to be a better bet.

I can’t imagine what, say, the trucking industry would look like in this country if it used the COVID approach for logistics management.  Actually, it might look like some of the rental car companies I’ve used in the past.....

Alright, now I’m just rambling so it’s time to sleep evidently.

 

Yeah, sounds similar in a lot of ways.  The thing is, I didn't actually mind that it took such heroics to get them an appointment - after all, I was successful in it.  What is getting me down is that, six full weeks after I did that, people in the same phase are still trying to jump through the same hoops to get their appointments.  So given how hard it is to get this group through, the next ones seem insurmountably difficult.  After this we have essential workers (teachers, grocery store, etc.) and then we have a gigantic group of everyone 16+ with two comorbidities.  And WA is counting "smoker" as a comorbidity, which I understand is unusual compared to other states.  Just seems like this is endless.  I do know that the promised shipments of vaccines will go up, and hopefully we'll have J&J soon, too.  Right now I just hate this idea of granny and grampa trying like hell to get vaccines with no success.

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How can Fauci answer the question about wearing masks in 2022 the way he did?  He’s either lying again or he is incompetent.  Either way I’m done with him and I no longer trust what he says.  Unless something out of the ordinary happens this virus is done by the start of 2022.  And when herd immunity does come I say to hell with the masks.  Time to get back to normal.  I’ve been holed up in a virtual prison for the past year and I longer want to live like this.  I want to see people’s faces again.  And if someone chooses not to get vaccinated then it’s on them if they get it.  I shouldn’t have to wear a mask to protect any of those idiots.  Fauci can’t read a room.  People have COVID fatigue and they need hope right now.  And there’s good reason to be hopeful.

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1 hour ago, ekbeats said:

People have COVID fatigue and they need hope right now.  And there’s good reason to be hopeful.

I agree with this part.  We are tired and do need to have hope, and right now it seems like there's good reason for it.

I'll admit I haven't followed Fauci closely in recent times so don't know about his alleged lying.

I do have a dear friend who can't get the vaccine, nor can her son.  So the "#### these people" who don't get it is a little tough for me to understand.  I have some sympathy for what you're saying regarding people who voluntarily don't do it, but it's really hard to make a blanket "screw you" testament when we don't know everyone's circumstances.

For me, I don't mind a mask at all.  This is despite the fact that (1) I'm often wearing glasses and they get fogged up, and (2) for some reason, a mask makes my nose run!  So it's kind of a pain, but not a big deal to me.  So I don't have a problem with continuing in general.  I totally get your thought of wanting to see people's faces, though!  I got together at an outdoor venue with friends yesterday for the first time in ages, and I actually didn't recognize them because of their masks!  :lol:   Overall, I'm OK with keeping with that program, though, if it protects people who need protection.  Seems like very little effort on my part.

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30 minutes ago, krista4 said:

I do have a dear friend who can't get the vaccine, nor can her son.  So the "#### these people" who don't get it is a little tough for me to understand.  I have some sympathy for what you're saying regarding people who voluntarily don't do it, but it's really hard to make a blanket "screw you" testament when we don't know everyone's circumstances.

For me, I don't mind a mask at all.  This is despite the fact that (1) I'm often wearing glasses and they get fogged up, and (2) for some reason, a mask makes my nose run! 

I agree with your take. You really don't know why people haven't gotten the vaccine. To me, it doesn't matter whether they've chosen not to; I'm going to err on the side of caution. That's how I would want it to be if I couldn't (and I haven't yet while my family has been able to) get vaccinated for some reason. California plans on June vaccinations for those people without underlying conditions. June is a ways away. I'm supposed to go in mid-March, but who knows about availability and whether my doctor thinks I'm at serious enough risk to get one.

And I don't mind masks, either, though my glasses also fog and it totally makes my nose run. Badly.

Anyway, best of luck to everyone in getting appointments for vaccines and getting that taken care of. It sounds rough in Washington; California hasn't really been a picnic either. The F5 refreshing thing you guys were talking about last page rings true. We were all on computers trying to refresh as soon as they listed the vaccination sites and appointments. Finally we obtained a number to call where they assisted you with getting an appointment, so my family was able to get their appts. Luckily, though. It wasn't publicized and they got the number through a friend. So it can indeed be tough in my experience, too.

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Some insight into the problems that are slowing progression through age groups:

1. The two shot series plays a large role. My pharmacy has been one of more aggressive in our area doing 200-400 shots per week of the Moderna. That puts us on a 4 week rotation between 1st and 2nd doses. We’re currently doing 2nd doses. So even though we continue to do high volume, the next two weeks we will do nearly 800 but only about 20 will be 1st doses. My system opened up to 65+ but they will have to wait weeks to get into our store.

2. Vaccine distribution is changing from the states to partially from the feds as well. That’s leaving us with questions of where we will be getting our vaccine next. They are also being distributed with the anticipation that all doses will be used immediately with no surplus. That leads to less aggressive vaccinations because we don’t know if we will be able to honor future appointments if we use up all our doses without having more coming. This became evident when shipping delays happened with the winter storms.

3. A transition is happening to get more pharmacies to have vaccines. Some of that is coming at the expense of larger, more effective mass vaccination sites. Getting the vaccine out to retail pharmacies is good in the long run but we’re going through a transition period. New crews trying to figure out workflow optimization, new scheduling systems to cause problems, etc.

4. The main age groups being vaccinated right now are the ones with problems with technology and prefer convince over efficiency. They don’t like having to make an appointment or going to a large drive thru clinic. They’d rather be able to walk up to their pharmacy without an appointment and get their shot. But while most elderly don’t like the mass vaccination sites, most run pretty amazingly.

It will get better as transitions are made and we move onto younger age groups. The talk of open appointments and herd immunity in April is not realistic. Mid-late summer is best case, IMO.

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7 hours ago, krista4 said:

And WA is counting "smoker" as a comorbidity, which I understand is unusual compared to other states.

Louisiana also counts smoking as a comorbidity. I had thought, but didn’t know for sure, that this was common in other states. Now I’m curious about whether my supposition is correct. 

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6 hours ago, krista4 said:

I agree with this part.  We are tired and do need to have hope, and right now it seems like there's good reason for it.

I'll admit I haven't followed Fauci closely in recent times so don't know about his alleged lying.

I do have a dear friend who can't get the vaccine, nor can her son.  So the "#### these people" who don't get it is a little tough for me to understand.  I have some sympathy for what you're saying regarding people who voluntarily don't do it, but it's really hard to make a blanket "screw you" testament when we don't know everyone's circumstances.

For me, I don't mind a mask at all.  This is despite the fact that (1) I'm often wearing glasses and they get fogged up, and (2) for some reason, a mask makes my nose run!  So it's kind of a pain, but not a big deal to me.  So I don't have a problem with continuing in general.  I totally get your thought of wanting to see people's faces, though!  I got together at an outdoor venue with friends yesterday for the first time in ages, and I actually didn't recognize them because of their masks!  :lol:   Overall, I'm OK with keeping with that program, though, if it protects people who need protection.  Seems like very little effort on my part.

I should probably clarify - I will continue wearing a mask until I get vaccinated and probably even got a time afterwards.  But not into 2022, assuming nothing happens unexpectedly.  At some point it has to end.

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7 minutes ago, jobarules said:

One of the criticisms of the Trump administration was he put everything on the states to decide. I thought Biden was going to fix that. Apparently he hasnt. 

Cover for this has already started.

President Joe Biden’s presidency hinges in large part on his success in handling the pandemic. But nearly a month into power, he’s beginning to discover just how much of that task is out of his control.

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16 minutes ago, jobarules said:

One of the criticisms of the Trump administration was he put everything on the states to decide. I thought Biden was going to fix that. Apparently he hasnt. 

Do you think its a quick process?  Though things appear they will be ramping up...and the daily average is up to about 1.7 million per day already.  And yes...id love it to go faster for sure.  There is a balance between the Feds and the States that needs to improve.

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2021/02/biden-team-ramps-up-distribution-plans-with-vaccine-availability-to-near-125m-over-next-5-weeks.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-upends-trump-s-calculation-who-gets-federal-vaccination-help-n1258407

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19 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Cover for this has already started.

President Joe Biden’s presidency hinges in large part on his success in handling the pandemic. But nearly a month into power, he’s beginning to discover just how much of that task is out of his control.

Biden wasn’t prepared after months of telling us he was. 

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Just now, knowledge dropper said:

Biden wasn’t prepared after months of telling us he was. 

I dont think it is an issue of being prepared. I think they knew all along that the president has very little control. But if you present that on the campaign trail it provides cover for trump. 

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2 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

Biden wasn’t prepared after months of telling us he was. 

Have we been increasing the number of shots per day in people's arms?  Yes or no?

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5 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Have we been increasing the number of shots per day in people's arms?  Yes or no?

Was this already happening before? Did you vote for him to do about as good as Trump was already doing? Yes or No?

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

@Biff84, what state are you in? The issues you bring up ... do you expect them to be state-specific or to be pretty much be nation-wide issues?

Arizona. Some of it is state specific but most of it will exist everywhere. The ‘use within 7 days’ will probably be everywhere for the next couple months. That was one of the stipulations of receiving the federal doses going directly to pharmacies. And they’ve probably said the same about the doses they’ve sent to states and why getting the same pressure on the state distributions.

It’s not a huge issue if deliveries are consistent but it’s creating a house of cards that’s ready to tumble with any weather delays or production issues. My goal is keep about 100 dose buffer and to adjust my appointment scheduling for more flexibility based on vaccine received.

One of the biggest bottlenecks from increasing capacity is registering new patients. Being one of only six pharmacies in a large metro area we got people from all over signing up for appointments with most not in our system. That goes away with the second dose and should be less of a problem as more pharmacies get the vaccine and people can go to their regular pharmacy. We planned to keep doing high volume and adding new appointments but the uncertainty on vaccine deliveries forced to stay conservative.

One good idea I heard was in on of the NE states they were having a massive 2nd dose clinic ran by the national guard at a stadium. But most people want simplicity with the second dose and we’re scheduling people 28 days out at the same time.

I think most of the problems are transitional and will get much better with time and experience and will work themselves out when we go to broader age groups.

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Haven't paid attention too closely to the raw numbers, but we weren't we promised 20M doses administered in Dec 2020?  I think we had 1.5 million or so?  Is that true?  Then Biden promised  100M in first 100 days or 1M per day.  I think that's true?  Not exactly a lofty goal, but it's better than that many a MONTH).  We are doing clips above that and it's supposed to be "about as good as" 1.5M in a month?  :confused: 

I mean, I appreciate the efforts it takes to get things up and running and the time it takes.  I also acknowledge this is bigger than one person (Trump vs Biden) but people insist on making the comparisons, so there you go I guess?  All that's missing is the "if happened under X watch to it's X fault/credit" shtick.  :lmao: 

Edited by The Commish
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9 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:
31 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Have we been increasing the number of shots per day in people's arms?  Yes or no?

Thanks Trump!

Over 20% of deaths have been since Biden took the oath.  

Hardly any of this stuff over the past few months -- vaccination rates, deaths, positive cases, etc. can be specifically attributed to either president.

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11 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

Thanks Trump!

Over 20% of deaths have been since Biden took the oath.  

Deaths are a trailing metric, by 1 to 2 months or more. If you wanna use this metric, you need to make a correction for the lag. In any event, it won't be easy to attribute much to Biden, using analytics,  except good messaging. Maybe the vaccine rollout got better. Trump had terrible messaging and history will attribute some deaths to Trump due to his stance on masks, in-person gatherings, etc. RIP Herman Cain.

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I talked to my colleague in Israel this morning (regular work call but started off talking vax).  He said he got his 2nd shot in January and basically everyone that wants a shot can pretty easily get one now.  He said, yes, they are opening things up quite a bit, but that there's still a lot of trepidation about getting too close to other people.  It's not like a switch was flipped and everyone went back to "the old ways", so still a lot of social distancing.  But they are nearing the exit from the tunnel, while we are halfway through, and poor countries cannot see the light at all yet.

We didn't get into the Gaza / West Bank / Arab Israeli citizen thing.  I've never brought that up with them and never will.

ETA: He also said that the QR code system crashed because way too many people were downloading it and trying to use it right when it launched.  The demand for this type of system will be YUGE if implemented in a country larger than 9m people.  What if China rolled out something like this?  Actually, they could probably just force it on to people's phones without their consent, so nevermind.

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26 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

Thanks Trump!

Over 20% of deaths have been since Biden took the oath.  

Yep, pretty sad people bought Biden would do any better. All he’s done is continue the same trajectory. 

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14 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Hardly any of this stuff over the past few months -- vaccination rates, deaths, positive cases, etc. can be specifically attributed to either president.

I give full credit to Trump for the massive downtrend in my state since November 18th. 

Actually i give full credit to "science"

Without their efforts we would have continued to increase.

Actually, thats not true either. I give full credit to the coronavirus. Since this thing clearly does what it wants when it wants. 

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

One of the criticisms of the Trump administration was he put everything on the states to decide. I thought Biden was going to fix that. Apparently he hasnt. 

I wish they were doing more to centralize it but they haven’t yet. The logistics of making the transition can’t be easy as resources are already committed to what the states had planned.

Last month my idea was to try and balance each state out to get everyone onto a national plan. That would take resources away from states that are doing well and distribute them to the ones who have fallen behind. That’s not going to be popular but something I still think should be done. Set a date for everyone over 65 to be vaccinated, make an estimate and get the resources there to meet the deadline.

They’ve started to do that with direct distribution to pharmacies. I think when J&J gets approved it could be fully federally distributed and help the transition to a federal plan.

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26 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I give full credit to Trump for the massive downtrend in my state since November 18th. 

Actually i give full credit to "science"

Without their efforts we would have continued to increase.

Actually, thats not true either. I give full credit to the coronavirus. Since this thing clearly does what it wants when it wants. 

You have a point. These waves are somewhat unpredictable. However, many Asian countries dramatically reduced the spread, using measures that would be considered draconian in the West. And looking at large cities, it's clear that San Francisco did much better than any other city, while LA did worse than many. Remote work and living arrangements make a big difference. 

Miami Dade County is also on the down side of what is likely the last wave, but the rate of decline is slower than almost any large metro area, probably due to greater opening. There's a price to pay for opening, it's hard to quantify, and a challenge to determine if the trade-offs between COVID deaths and jobs is worth it.

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

I give full credit to Trump for the massive downtrend in my state since November 18th. 

Actually i give full credit to "science"

Without their efforts we would have continued to increase.

Actually, thats not true either. I give full credit to the coronavirus. Since this thing clearly does what it wants when it wants. 

I’d say that we’re seeing very little other than the natural progression after the holidays. I guess it could have gotten worse if Trump won and everyone completely gave up but we’d probably be in the same spot with Trump.

The upcoming months will start to show any difference the Biden administration and vaccinations have made with the spread of variants thrown in as well.

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1 hour ago, knowledge dropper said:

Thanks Trump!

Over 20% of deaths have been since Biden took the oath.  

Trump increased shots in arms after he was in office?  Interesting...and I said nothing about credit.  Just a simple yes or no if shots have been increasing?

 

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2 hours ago, jobarules said:

Is vaccine distribution still left up to the states? Yes or no?

Not 100% it seems and seems to be moving more towards the federal government taking a little more control.

Id hope it was even more so as far as centralizing distribution.

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11 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

I’d say that we’re seeing very little other than the natural progression after the holidays. I guess it could have gotten worse if Trump won and everyone completely gave up but we’d probably be in the same spot with Trump.

The upcoming months will start to show any difference the Biden administration and vaccinations have made with the spread of variants thrown in as well.

Holidays meant nothing in my state. 

Peak was before thanksgiving. Been diving downward ever since. 

Much of the midwest has same trajectory. So at a time when experts predicted increases we were dropping like a lead balloon. 

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1 hour ago, SoBeDad said:

Deaths are a trailing metric, by 1 to 2 months or more. If you wanna use this metric, you need to make a correction for the lag. In any event, it won't be easy to attribute much to Biden, using analytics,  except good messaging. Maybe the vaccine rollout got better. Trump had terrible messaging and history will attribute some deaths to Trump due to his stance on masks, in-person gatherings, etc. RIP Herman Cain.

It's fishing GB.....just let it ebb and flow :hifive: 

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18 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Holidays meant nothing in my state. 

Peak was before thanksgiving. Been diving downward ever since. 

Much of the midwest has same trajectory. So at a time when experts predicted increases we were dropping like a lead balloon. 

The Florida and Georgia peaks were in early January. Kansas had multiple peaks from November to January, with the last minipeak in early January.

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40 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

The Florida and Georgia peaks were in early January. Kansas had multiple peaks from November to January, with the last minipeak in early January.

It is important to use hospitalizations as the metric. Case data is all over the place. Backlogs being cleared, weekend gaps, mass testing sites relocating, etc. Also for the holidays some places saw big increases in testing right before the holidays which contributed to some backlogs. These cause big swings. 

If you look at the hospitalization chart in your link it shows nothing for Thanksgiving and then a bit of a spike after xmas/new years (a single spike which is why I combined them). 

But the trend downward is a steep decline in kansas and that decline began just a couple days after thanksgiving. Which means cases obviously starting sharply declining 8-12 days before that and xmas/new years might have had some effect, it really was not significant at all.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

It is important to use hospitalizations as the metric. Case data is all over the place. Backlogs being cleared, weekend gaps, mass testing sites relocating, etc. Also for the holidays some places saw big increases in testing right before the holidays which contributed to some backlogs. These cause big swings. 

If you look at the hospitalization chart in your link it shows nothing for Thanksgiving and then a bit of a spike after xmas/new years (a single spike which is why I combined them). 

But the trend downward is a steep decline in kansas and that decline began just a couple days after thanksgiving. Which means cases obviously starting sharply declining 8-12 days before that and xmas/new years might have had some effect, it really was not significant at all.

 

 

Why hospitalizations if you want to show a link between the holidays and COVID? A 7-day moving average would smooth cases per 100k out some. Anyway, Kansas had a hospitalization peak on Dec 1, and again on Jan 10, while FL and GA had a single peak around Jan 15.

And if you compare deaths per 100k across states on CovidActNow you'll see that Florida, Kasas and Georgia are still at their highest ever. I think we're on the downside of the final wave, but the evidence shows that social gatherings were likely a contributor to cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

I also believe that the shutdown in California may have been and is too strict. 

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14 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Why hospitalizations if you want to show a link between the holidays and COVID? A 7-day moving average would smooth cases per 100k out some. Anyway, Kansas had a hospitalization peak on Dec 1, and again on Jan 10, while FL and GA had a single peak around Jan 15.

And if you compare deaths per 100k across states on CovidActNow you'll see that Florida, Kasas and Georgia are still at their highest ever. I think we're on the downside of the final wave, but the evidence shows that social gatherings were likely a contributor to cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

I also believe that the shutdown in California may have been and is too strict. 

Without having exact date of test data, cases are almost useless. 7 day moving average is easily moved quite a bit by one backlog. Also as I mentioned lots of people went and got tested right before the holidays  in order to visit family that wouldn't have normally got a test done. 

Deaths are also a poor metric because backlogs are so common. Just look at the daily deaths compared to the 7 day averages. Massive differences. How do you go from a 25 deaths a day 7 day average to 50 deaths a day 7 day average in one day? Do you really think it was just a bad day for deaths or do you think it was a reporting cleanup? Some states give two numbers for deaths. Date of death charts and then date of reporting. The date of death charts are always much smoother and you can see that sometimes many deaths are from several weeks earlier when comparing the two charts. 

If you look at the hospitalization data you will see the 7 day averages track quite closely with the daily counts. Hospitals aren't closed on weekends. There is no backlog. Some people may try to avoid going to the hospital, but by and large hospitalizations are much more constant. Nobody says I am really sick with covid and I want to go visit my mom for t-day so I guess I will go to the hospital for this covid stuff instead of staying in bed. There is no mass hospitalization popup tent where many people in an area may just decide to go and get free covid hospital jello pudding. 

I havent looked at florida or georgia. Just looking at Kansas and WI, SD, MN, ND, IA, etc. 

Which is enough data to show that there isn't really any rhyme or reason to explain how this all works and saying we are on the way out because we are clear of the holidays is just a lazy explanation. 

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54 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Why hospitalizations if you want to show a link between the holidays and COVID? A 7-day moving average would smooth cases per 100k out some. Anyway, Kansas had a hospitalization peak on Dec 1, and again on Jan 10, while FL and GA had a single peak around Jan 15.

And if you compare deaths per 100k across states on CovidActNow you'll see that Florida, Kasas and Georgia are still at their highest ever. I think we're on the downside of the final wave, but the evidence shows that social gatherings were likely a contributor to cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

I also believe that the shutdown in California may have been and is too strict. 

This is a poor representation. The January 10th "peak" is a blip. The 7 day average got down to 1003 from 1261 and then "peaked" again at 1035 and was back down to 1000 three days later.  

 

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59 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Without having exact date of test data, cases are almost useless. 7 day moving average is easily moved quite a bit by one backlog. Also as I mentioned lots of people went and got tested right before the holidays  in order to visit family that wouldn't have normally got a test done. 

Deaths are also a poor metric because backlogs are so common. Just look at the daily deaths compared to the 7 day averages. Massive differences. How do you go from a 25 deaths a day 7 day average to 50 deaths a day 7 day average in one day? Do you really think it was just a bad day for deaths or do you think it was a reporting cleanup? Some states give two numbers for deaths. Date of death charts and then date of reporting. The date of death charts are always much smoother and you can see that sometimes many deaths are from several weeks earlier when comparing the two charts. 

If you look at the hospitalization data you will see the 7 day averages track quite closely with the daily counts. Hospitals aren't closed on weekends. There is no backlog. Some people may try to avoid going to the hospital, but by and large hospitalizations are much more constant. Nobody says I am really sick with covid and I want to go visit my mom for t-day so I guess I will go to the hospital for this covid stuff instead of staying in bed. There is no mass hospitalization popup tent where many people in an area may just decide to go and get free covid hospital jello pudding. 

I havent looked at florida or georgia. Just looking at Kansas and WI, SD, MN, ND, IA, etc. 

Which is enough data to show that there isn't really any rhyme or reason to explain how this all works and saying we are on the way out because we are clear of the holidays is just a lazy explanation. 

We're on our way out mainly because of the vaccine and partial herd immunity due to exposure. And holiday gatherings almost surely played a role in this last wave. On Worldometers, the peak in cases for the USA as a whole were Jan 11 (largest peak) and Dec 17 (2nd largest peak). Coincidence?

There are regional differences. South Dakota had one autumn wave, but it was huge. Florida has had 3 waves, an early one, a big summer one, and a holiday wave, which peaked in early January. Human behavior, living arrangements, economic opening are all factors. We have decades of experience with viruses, and there are always seasonal variations, mostly attributed to cold weather and the resulting indoor activity. COVID-19 is no different. 

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54 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

We're on our way out mainly because of the vaccine and partial herd immunity due to exposure. And holiday gatherings almost surely played a role in this last wave. On Worldometers, the peak in cases for the USA as a whole were Jan 11 (largest peak) and Dec 17 (2nd largest peak). Coincidence?

There are regional differences. South Dakota had one autumn wave, but it was huge. Florida has had 3 waves, an early one, a big summer one, and a holiday wave, which peaked in early January. Human behavior, living arrangements, economic opening are all factors. We have decades of experience with viruses, and there are always seasonal variations, mostly attributed to cold weather and the resulting indoor activity. COVID-19 is no different. 

And God only knows how many little ones were caused by visiting here and leaving.  It's been bonkers and I'm still not confident we are counting correctly, though the claims from the sources have subsided a good bit, so maybe?

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52 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

We're on our way out mainly because of the vaccine and partial herd immunity due to exposure. And holiday gatherings almost surely played a role in this last wave. On Worldometers, the peak in cases for the USA as a whole were Jan 11 (largest peak) and Dec 17 (2nd largest peak). Coincidence?

There are regional differences. South Dakota had one autumn wave, but it was huge. Florida has had 3 waves, an early one, a big summer one, and a holiday wave, which peaked in early January. Human behavior, living arrangements, economic opening are all factors. We have decades of experience with viruses, and there are always seasonal variations, mostly attributed to cold weather and the resulting indoor activity. COVID-19 is no different. 

You are speaking as if you know these things to be true.

How many vaccine doses had been given as of November 18th? 

We arent talking about some tiny little swaths here. We are talking about multiple states. A whole region that throws a wet blanket all over everything you just typed. 

Unless of course you are suggesting that these mostly GOP states are just better at handling the pandemic. 

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14 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

You are speaking as if you know these things to be true.

How many vaccine doses had been given as of November 18th? 

We arent talking about some tiny little swaths here. We are talking about multiple states. A whole region that throws a wet blanket all over everything you just typed. 

Unless of course you are suggesting that these mostly GOP states are just better at handling the pandemic. 

South and North Dakota started their large waves in September with peaks in mid November. In South Dakota, the average low drops to 48 in September, 36 in October and 26 in November.  According to the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, the only 2 states with an increase in foot traffic in bars on August 14 were the 2 Dakotas. Universities also opened in August. 

Again, decades of experience shows that cold weather and indoor activity are associated with seasonal viruses. The exact timing of viral waves varies from state to state due to density, temperature, behavior, etc. On CovidActNow, Kansas, Iowa, and Dakotas peak in mid November and had mini peaks in early January.  Interestingly, the peaks in cases per 100k are bigger and later from ND, SD, NE, KS, to OK to TX. Temperature definitely plays a role.

South Dakota bars busier in August than 2019, according to Minneapolis Federal Reserve data

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