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Government Response To The Coronavirus (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter James Daulton
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It seems like a mistake from a risk-benefit analysis and also a mistake from a vaccine-hesitancy standpoint (which affects the pace of vaccination). "The government says covid vaccines are dangerous" is going to be the take-home message for many.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The ethical implications of pausing the J&J to complete an investigation are different since there are 2 other approved vaccines. I bet it wouldn't be paused if these others didn't exist.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Because the risk wasn't known at that time. Might not have been approved if this risk was quantified.
And BTW, I'd bet $ that the J&J srarts going back into arms sooner rather than later.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
If it didnt affect supply then the efficacy numbers being lower alone should have led to not approving it.
(It obviously affects supply)
7-10 day pause and then reconvene was the ACIP decision today.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
It was originally approved back in February, a lot has changed since then. Today we have states like Alabama and Mississippi that have only used around 60% of the shots they’ve received because thousands of available appointments are going unfilled. There’s still a high demand in some states but I’m not sure the extent to which Moderna and Pfizer are able to meet that demand and for how long demand will continue to be greater than supply in those areas.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
As Growler said - the option isn’t J&J or Covid - its J&J or one of the other two vaccines vs. Covid. I waited a year to get a vaccine, I wouldn’t mind waiting another month to get one of the other two versus J&J given current information.
The initial goal for vaccine approval was 50%, Pfizer and Moderna blew that out of the water. Having that 3rd one dose vaccine was important for getting close to herd immunity. There’s a lot of people who only wanted J&J and it hasn’t been easy to find. Those people might be lost causes at this point but approving it was the right move. Time will tell if this pause was the right call but chances are it will have far reaching consequences.
Allowing adults to make educated decisions is one thing and I do agree with that but the question becomes if we have enough information to consider it an informed decision. 1 in a million is one thing but if it turns out to be 1 in a thousand or 1 in a hundred, that’s certainly a different consideration to make. Whatever the case, the damage is done and it’s a huge setback.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Pretty cool paper that predicts increasing ventilation has the same effect as 50-60% vaccine coverage for influenza A.
It is from 2019.
It is from 2019.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Missed this somehow. Trump was at least half right.
https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1381069533457362955?s=19
Trump said everyone should be calling it the “Trumpcine” (instead of vaccine) and deemed Mitch McConnell a “dumb son of a #####” during his RNC remarks at Mar-a-Lago tonight, per person in the room.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
If that's the decision you choose to make for yourself, fine. It's your life and the decision should be yours.
Now return the courtesy.
supermike80
Footballguy
Dude thats what you do all day. I mean I appreciate you calling me out on it, but talk about pot kettle etc.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
EUA regulatory frameworks don't really work that way though. I bet there are some triggers for automatic review due to unexpected adverse effects.
It may seem like a 1 in a million thing right now and not statistically significant (cuz it's not from what we know right now), but that could change once a more thorough investigation is complete.
The pause is certainly justified and it may end up causing more damage than continuing, but there are 2 other vaccines on EUA that are available. It is also a choice to forego those vaccines even though no severe adverse effects have been noted despite over 100 million doses administered.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
A few questions for @IvanKaramazov and the group, what should the threshold be to trigger an deep investigation? Should that threshold be different than putting a pause on administering the vaccine? What if the news comes out that they are investigating, but not pausing? Would that be worse for vaccine hesitancy?
I'm not saying this pause was or wasn't the right call, but I don't think it's 100% clear right now.
I'm not saying this pause was or wasn't the right call, but I don't think it's 100% clear right now.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I have no issue with that - I'm very "libertarian" with most things - I just think in this case with other good options I'm ok if they pause just to be safe. Or, at the very least, be very explicit with the warnings around clotting and as you say let folks choose. I guess my bigger point is - I would have no clue how to choose in that situation as it feels like there's not enough information and most importantly, I have no clue how to evaluate this. Hypothetically, if I wasn't already vaccinated and this news came out but they didn't pause, it would definitely make me consider the 2-dose over J&J.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I'm all for investigating all sorts of things. It's good that people are tracking vaccine efficacy and side effects.
Of course. It's good to know if a vaccine -- or any drug or medical treatment of any kind -- has certain side effects. How else are people supposed to make informed decisions about whether to accept the treatment or not? Information is good.
The decision to step in front of a rational adult and deny them medical treatment is a qualitatively different issue. All sorts of things have tail risks associated with them. We rightly trust people to weigh those risks and decide for themselves whether the benefits outweigh the costs.
To put it a little differently, let's just say for the sake of argument that the blood clot issue is real. If I came in here and said that I'm refusing vaccination on the grounds that there is a one-in-one-million chance that I might develop a blood clot, every single one of you would say that I was overreacting to a miniscule threat. The average person's risk of dying from covid is about four orders of magnitude, or ten thousand times, greater than their risk of dying from a vaccine-induced blood clot. (This ignores for simplicity the fact that both risks vary predictably across the population). The average person would be a little nuts to accept a 1-in-700 risk of death to avoid a 1-in-7,000,000 risk of death. And yet that's the risk that the FDA is inflicting on people involuntarily.
I'm okay with letting people make dumb decisions on their own. I'm really very strongly not okay with having a dumb decision imposed upon me by a third party.
I would have no problem with this whatsoever.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Not exactly, as there are other options on the table as outlined above. The probability is therefore how many people would become infected by covid and suffer severe outcomes that otherwise would have gotten the J&J vaccine and no other vaccine. So it's not a 1 in 700 risk of death. I don't know what that number that is but it's not 1/700.
You might not, but it conceivably could have a worse effect on hesitancy than a pause to investigate.
Finally, there's the facts of information asymmetry between the lay person and the regulatory bodies. Individuals often don't grasp risk evaluation, statistics, underlying and contributing health issues, etc. I would have to do a massive amount of study to make a truly informed decision like this. For these reasons and others, we and almost every other country have decided to appoint experts to make these calls on a population level. Sure this limits liberty and they make bad calls, but the alternative could be much more dangerous.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Does anybody have even a shred of doubt that the pause will be lifted?
The Commish
Footballguy
This pause corresponds with the manufacturing snafu right? I know our state is getting significantly less J&J vaccine the next couple weeks already (if any). What does this "pause" really add on top of that? Anyone know?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Two good twitter threads on J&J pause that my wife sent me:
https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1382493473933307918?s=08
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1382536891824738304?s=08
https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1382493473933307918?s=08
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1382536891824738304?s=08
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
That first thread doesnt seem very helpful to me.
That just adds more confusion. Is it paused or not?
If it can still be given it shouldn't be called a pause.
If it is paused, she shouldnt be saying it isnt a pause.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
false sense of security given to people
like the lockdowns, the 50% capacity laws, masks etc ............. its all about getting people to feel like they're safe
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I don't know enough to say, but her credentials indicate she should know what she's talking about.
Now if it's up to the individual provider and the FDA is recommending a pause, then they are most likely going to pause, if only for the liability reasons. The vaccine doesn't treat any disease, just lessens the impact when one does come into contact with the virus. It's not a drug.
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the moops
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
40,000 dead and we shut the economy down to save lives, masks to save lives, all of that to "save lives"
everything started reopening in 3 months and we added 400-450,000 more dead and tens of millions positive
that's not saving lives
oh, people can say we'd have lost more ... but that's guessing, that's not factual. I could think we'd have lost LESS by not having any of that, but that's my guessing too
what we know is we have 500,000 more dead and 20 million more positives with what we were told would make us "safe"
the moops
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
You might say that antibiotics make us safer, but that's just an estimate.
The Commish
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
This doesnt make any sense. But it really doesnt make any sense in the context of what we are talking about.
If the goal was false sense of security (which is such a dumb concept) then pausing it would be the exact opposite way to achieve such a thing.
Extremely worthwhile rant by the guy who's been uncannily right about covid-related things from the beginning:
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/15/covid-4-15-are-we-seriously-doing-this-again/
The good news: "As furious as I am at the J&J suspension, and as many people as it’s going to kill (most of which will be from disadvantaged groups and areas, which J&J’s one shot at room temperature made much easier to reach), it is important not to lose perspective. J&J was a small portion of our vaccine effort, and case growth is not that rapid, so it’s not going to kill hundreds of thousands of people, at least not in America. If we’re lucky, it will only kill thousands."
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/15/covid-4-15-are-we-seriously-doing-this-again/
The good news: "As furious as I am at the J&J suspension, and as many people as it’s going to kill (most of which will be from disadvantaged groups and areas, which J&J’s one shot at room temperature made much easier to reach), it is important not to lose perspective. J&J was a small portion of our vaccine effort, and case growth is not that rapid, so it’s not going to kill hundreds of thousands of people, at least not in America. If we’re lucky, it will only kill thousands."
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
people desperately want to hear that there is a plan where we all make it out alive
the Govt said we'll shutdown, limit, mask wear, vaccinate ..... that's giving people hope and security
but I suspect the Govt knew all along they'd not stop a virus by wearing old cloth masks and making people stay at home
what we DO know is that 10X more people died after the shutdown and during the mask wearing than before them - no way to escape those facts
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Man, you're right.
Just like lots more people died of skin cancer after the development of sunscreen.
Cause --> Effect
Couldn't be simpler.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Just emptied all the sunscreen out of my closet. Probably can get skin cancer just standing by it.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Are people (NOT on this board) aware that they're lucky enough to be dragged along with the rest of us who are trying their damndest to get out of this pandemic despite them being difficult, stubborn and selfish with their attitudes and behaviors? Or is there no self-awareness of that at all? I wonder if people do this knowingly and don't care, or really just don't understand the concepts. It's frustrating.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
sun isn't a virus
people aren't required to wear sunblock
nothing was shutdown because of the sun saying it'd make things better
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Off-topic, but worth reading, IMO: https://www.outsideonline.com/2380751/sunscreen-sun-exposure-skin-cancer-science
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
And the current U.S. sun-exposure guidelines were written for the whitest people on earth.
Lol.
moleculo
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
I recently saw a guy wearing a mask that said, "worn by law, not by fear". This really got me thinking..
1. it implies that there are only two reasons to wear a mask. Somehow empathy didn't cross this guys thought pattern - IMO we should wear a mask to protect others more than protecting ourselves. If asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic spread are a thing, or if you think your congestion is because of allergies, it's possible that you could be infected, not know it, and spread to someone else. That's not wearing a mask out of fear, it's wearing a mask to protect others.
2. it implies a severe lack of thought for the greater good. Forget about spreading to someone else, the virus itself doesn't die as long as it can still transmit. The sooner we stop the spread, the sooner we are over this ####. Masks help with that. Not wearing a mask out of "muh freedom" is extremely selfish.
3. folks on the right like to whine about virtue signaling. This is a shining example of some guy proclaiming to the world that he values his personal freedom - talk about your virtue signaling.
4. I am now 2+ weeks past my second vaccination. I still wear my mask, even if not required. I do it because there are people out there who feel anxiety about COVID, and I don't like making people uncomfortable. It's a common courtesy at this point, but I guess some people can't be bothered with that.
Doug B
Footballguy
If it means anything ... that particular set of tweets seems to show that the J&J vaccine alone has suffered a drop in public confidence. Looks like the people they polled haven't wavered on their positive opinions of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccinations.
I hope that's meaningful when applied to wide society.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I know it’s not exactly the same thing, but lots of employers mandate flu shots around here
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I do this too, but I'm only going to keep doing it for a few more weeks. Once we start having unfilled vaccine appointments and the PR messaging pivots to the vaccine-resistant among us, my mask is coming off. Unvaccinated people can just deal with it -- that's their choice. Vaccinated people who are scared to get back on the bike need to get over that too.
I was strongly in favor of masking when there was a compelling public health reason to wear a mask. I'm not on board with Masks Forever.
moleculo
Footballguy
BladeRunner
Footballguy
I also will be doing this. get my 2nd shot in another week and then I'll give it 4 weeks after that tops.
Mookie
Footballguy
Agreed, but I have no clue when that day is when it's safe to go back in the water. It certainly won't be when some group of Covid/mask/vaccine deniers in the State Legislature pass a state law that forbids local mask ordinances.
Wearing a mask is such a minor inconvenience at this point that I'm fine with waiting until the scientists tell me it's OK not to. That could change, however, if the only people I'm protecting is Covid/mask/vaccine deniers, as IMO, they are assuming the risk of their actions.
Doug B
Footballguy
I'm now a week past my second Moderna shot. I'm willing to wear masks in businesses that I frequent as long as they maintain the requirement (regardless of local law or mandate). There are some other public indoor spaces that still require masks, and I will follow those rules as well.
Otherwise, the mask is coming off around vaccinated family & friends, and in the office around vaccinated co-workers.
Otherwise, the mask is coming off around vaccinated family & friends, and in the office around vaccinated co-workers.
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