Doug B
Footballguy
... I don't think we're disagreeing here. Wasn't what I wrote in line with the bolded above? That Delta would be almost exclusively subclinical in the U.S. if we had a very high vax rate?
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Government Response To The Coronavirus (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter James Daulton
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It would be more so than now but hospitals are never going to come close to being overrun like they were back in the winter because of the # of high risk people currently vaccinated. In other words, media is focusing on case count to instill fear (like usual).
Doug B
Footballguy
I agree.
Anecdotally, it appears that a few large local healthcare companies are moving to required COVID vaccination. Not yet in the news, but well-sourced to me personally.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html
The hospitalization rate in July is pretty much subclinical.
The hospitalization rate in July is pretty much subclinical.
Doug B
Footballguy
I believe she'd agree with me, actually. What I'm saying is not counter to the data she talked about.
Apologies if honda. This seemed positive. Dr. Gottlieb: https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1420337062809640960?s=20
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Doug B
Footballguy
Right -- this is what a high level of public vaccination does. Doesn't matter (that much) what the surface viral counts are.
Doug B
Footballguy
I don't disagree here, either. Though I think case counts should still be tracked and reported, I think there should also be focus in the media on what a summer 2021 case means compared to a summer 2020 case.
Agreed 100%. Which is why I am saying the media panic over Delta is way overblown. If you are vaccinated you have nothing to worry about. If you are not that's on you. Why are we going back to masks again?
Doug B
Footballguy
Graph data ends at July 10th. Cases are known to have spiked in the hotspots states. I don't expect the hospitalizations to spike to the exact same degree, but I don't want to get comfortable yet either. Anecdotes of some local (N.O. suburbs) hospitals using up rooms for COVID patients are making the rounds.
Actually July 17th. But yes there will be hot spots. Thats what Fauci has said since last year. Areas of low vaccination will have hot spots.
Doug B
Footballguy
I agree with Gottlieb that the Delta spike should be high but relatively short. My only quibble is with his 2-to-3 week time frame to be "through this". I am thinking more 6-to-8 weeks for the entire rise and fall to play out.
Thanks. I'm sorry my notebook is way out of date and I've not been in these threads. What do you do for a living and what is your training?
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I want to see more data on the viral load vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Viral load being just as high in someone who gets a mild cold vs someone will be hospitalized. Maybe as an initial viral load but you would expect that load to grow in the severe illness and quickly decline in a vaccinated person.
Sand
Footballguy
Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. There are portions of time that this could happen.
At this point what I want to see is the level of death and hospitalization among the vaccinated. We need to live with this thing and for us to clamp down again really needs some extraordinarily poor results among the vaccinated for me to consider following it.
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The Commish
Footballguy
He's been spot on for most of this. Ignore the "he's a big pharma rube" guys, his voice needs to be heard more and more. It's not all that complicated IMO. If you are going to be in a place where you don't know vax status of people, wear a mask. If you're going to be inside with a large group of people for a longer period of time, where a mask and they need to be quality masks. There are plenty out there now and they don't cost a fortune anymore.
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Sand
Footballguy
He's an FFA member and a Saints fan. I mean, really, are there any higher qualifications?
Doug B
Footballguy
I've been in disaster management, both federal and private consulting, for 15 years. Professional training is in that field, and also in communications and database administration.
Yeah 2-3 weeks sounds way too optimistic. That would mean we are already near our case peak and that doesn’t seem likely.
The Commish
Footballguy
Huh...go figure. I knew there was something I liked about you GB! That's where I cut my teeth in technology and what kept me busy out of trouble for 12ish years.
The Commish
Footballguy
As a country, perhaps. Not even close to peak here in our state. Our hospitals in central Florida are at capacity and they are now cancelling non-essential surgeries to make room.
Doug B
Footballguy
This is a good point to make -- 50 states, a few hundred regions/metro areas, and that many separate spikes staggered in time.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Agreed. I was in favor of mask mandates, shutdowns, and stuff like that last year because the situation obviously (IMO) warranted it. So far, all the data that I've seen strongly argue in favor of letting vaccinated people do their thing. If Delta or some other variant alters that, I'm willing to change course. But I would need to see lots of really compelling data making that case, and those data simply don't appear to exist at all right now.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The people most knowledgeable about the relative science are less likely to think critically about it? Seems highly unlikely.
Doug B
Footballguy
Now, see, here is up-to-the-minute data for Louisiana, Arkansas, and Florida.
Hospitalizations are, indeed, spiking. Somewhat less of a spike than the case rates, but still a spike. Deaths are rising more gradually, but far more than a blip.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Mitch McConnell is planning to air 60 second pro-vaccine ads on more than 100 radio stations across Kentucky.
That's a great precedent to set for all Senators. Other states should pick up these ads if possible. Good job from Mitch.
That's a great precedent to set for all Senators. Other states should pick up these ads if possible. Good job from Mitch.
Doug B
Footballguy
Looking again at your post ... I did want to point out that I wasn't pulling estimated out of the air. I was comparing the U.S.'s current Delta situation and the onset of a spike in cases with what India and the UK went through with Delta. Scroll down to their respective Daily New Cases graphs and note the height and duration of their Delta spikes.
The UK is actually still on the downslope of their Delta spike with current case counts still about 10 times higher than they were in mid-May.
India's high peak with Delta is over with for now, but they're still at a case level over three times what it was in mid-February. With a much lower vaccination rate than the UK and US, India's bout with Delta has been prolonged even as the highest numbers are past.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
so ... read this article
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/28/us/vermont-most-vaccinated-coronavirus-state/index.html
then read this one
https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2021/07/27/covid-cases-after-vaccine-delta-variant-spark-questions-lax-guidance-vermont-restrictions-masks/8070184002/
amazing the differences in reporting and responses
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/28/us/vermont-most-vaccinated-coronavirus-state/index.html
then read this one
https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2021/07/27/covid-cases-after-vaccine-delta-variant-spark-questions-lax-guidance-vermont-restrictions-masks/8070184002/
amazing the differences in reporting and responses
Redwes25
Footballguy
Thought this was a great fact on breakthrough cases from the Burlington article. While examples exist it is still a small percentage and negative results are very rare.
About 1.6% of cases of COVID-19 since January 2021 have occurred among fully vaccinated Vermonters, according to the Data Summary. Of those breakthrough cases, 5% have been hospitalized and 2% were fatal. There have been 13 hospitalizations and less than 6 deaths recorded amongst Vermont's breakthrough cases thus far.
Doug B
Footballguy
You're looking for lockstep consistency in what is a chaotic situation. Those articles don't actually invalidate one another.
Are you familiar with the "blind men and elephant" parable? Something similar applies here.
The Commish
Footballguy
Pretty good summary of where we're at with Delta variant
It's my belief that we will continue to see spikes as new, more successful variants come to be and they will absolutely feast on the unvaccinated each time they develop. With each variant that is allowed to experiment on the human body unabated, it's a matter of time before a variant comes along that will make our vaccines significantly less effective. This will LIKELY require a variant where the spike protein is altered in a way that makes it unidentifiable to current vaccines. Until that happens, we can be relatively confident that our current set of vaccines will keep us safe.
I used the analogy before of playing Russian Roulette with a 6 chamber gun or a 100 chamber gun to describe the difference between facing covid with a vaccine or without. Seems to me like a no brainer decision, but some still want to go with the 6 chamber gun. That's their choice.
It's my belief that we will continue to see spikes as new, more successful variants come to be and they will absolutely feast on the unvaccinated each time they develop. With each variant that is allowed to experiment on the human body unabated, it's a matter of time before a variant comes along that will make our vaccines significantly less effective. This will LIKELY require a variant where the spike protein is altered in a way that makes it unidentifiable to current vaccines. Until that happens, we can be relatively confident that our current set of vaccines will keep us safe.
I used the analogy before of playing Russian Roulette with a 6 chamber gun or a 100 chamber gun to describe the difference between facing covid with a vaccine or without. Seems to me like a no brainer decision, but some still want to go with the 6 chamber gun. That's their choice.
This...the anti vaxxers are hurting us all. Not only will it evolve past the vaccine, at some point we run a very serious risk of a variant being much more dangerous.
This is one of those times that i wish we could fine people financially because we the crap hits the fan these are the people that should be paying for it.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Trouble is the spikes just reinforce the odd thinking, and they claim the vaccines aren't working.
I understand how people that have no knowledge of such things are using confusing and flat out wrong arguments to muddy the waters
They should just be held responsible when things go wrong.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
For me, the thing with mask mandates is it's really not that big an inconvenience. Far too many people are acting like wearing a mask is some massive burden that completely ruins their lives. My kids wear one for hours a day at school and I've never heard a single complaint. It's really just not that big a deal.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
This is where I am, too. It all gets conflated together because politics, but I view masking as qualitatively different from things like shutdowns, quarantines, remote learning, etc. When I got vaccinated, I was far more willing to do activities that I hadn't previously done, like indoor dining or travel, and while I wasn't necessarily excited about going into the office, I no longer had any health concerns about it. But while I eased up a little on my masking, I felt no need to throw all my masks into a bonfire. I just didn't see it as that big a deal.
Seems like it's happening. President Biden on unvaccinated Federal Workers: "You're not nearly as smart as I thought you were".
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1420123174801453058?s=20
I get that he may think that. Doesn't seem like a great way to get people together.
the rover
Footballguy
Max Power
Footballguy
Such motivating words. I believe if he had the skill to articulate his point better he could have made some progress. Instead it will be stonewalled and the bureaucracy hours spent to figure this out will cost the taxpayers.
HellToupee
Footballguy
Meanwhile at the border
“South Texas Police Department Issues Public Health Announcement After COVID-Stricken Migrants Seen ‘Coughing, Sneezing’ At Whataburger “
“South Texas Police Department Issues Public Health Announcement After COVID-Stricken Migrants Seen ‘Coughing, Sneezing’ At Whataburger “
Max Power
Footballguy
Biden's own Secretary of Defense doesn't approve vaccine mandates for the military until they receive full FDA approval.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I know you're not saying they're the same and I could be wrong but I think most people see mandatory mask wearing and mandatory vaccine as hugely different.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Sure, totally different. I just don't understand why so many people seem to think wearing a mask in a store is such a huge deal. Those same people, best I can tell, have no problem wearing a shirt, pants, and shoes in the same store.
dkp993
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
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