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RB Trey Sermon, Colts (2 Viewers)

Biabreakable said:
Yes but I hate the advice being given here to draft the player with the highest ADP especially when there are so many more players hitting from the later parts of the draft than are hitting in the early parts of the draft where using a pick is actually sacrificing a good player you could be taking in that range instead.
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Doc Oc has it right below. 

If you're trying to have the best chance of a league-winning RB1 in the mid rounds, taking the consensus guy from an ambiguous backfield is clearly the best choice. If you already have 2-3-RBs and a TE, you're probably going WR/QB in these rounds anyway. And then when you get even later, yeah, you do with what's available. 

But if you're with a balanced roster or one where you can start more RBs or you've got your eye on big value later at other positions, this seems like a great way to throw a dart, or even two, with a better chance of hitting.

 
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Sermon feels like the dude that if I draft him, Mostert will magically stay healthy for 15 games, while, ironically, Sermon will get a high ankle sprain in week 4. 

I know it’s irrational. I’ve just experienced this scenario more times then I can count. 

If I’m at the 1 or 12 bookend and light on RB, I’d consider grabbing Mostert at his ADP & immediately reaching for Sermon. Though I hate taking 2 players for 1 position.

Similar to how I’m approaching Gordon/Williams this year. 

In both situations the ADP isn’t THAT far apart, and in both situations you could potentially have 2 flex-worthy players if things break right, or the upside of 1 top 10 RB if things break really right. 

But it will have to be a deliberate move to get both for me to invest. Especially in this one, since Mostert is older & fragile, yet there’s no guarantee that Sermon will be flex-worthy so taking him alone also seems risky. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Good Grief BL the margin was 2%

Yes this is talking about a very small sample of as you say 4 players over a span of many seasons. So in my view its not strong evidence that one should take the RB 1 by ADP which is what JJ is saying and how you interpret the data. 

Another way to do this is to check the hit rate of ADP by round. I would expect that to say that the higher the pick the more likely the player scores more points. But its not that perfect because of all of the variables and unknowns involved. So using a hit rate for that you would have a percentage for each round that your pick gives you return on investment of the price you paid for it.

The higher the pick the higher your hit rate on average.

Well the percentage of hits in round 6-9 is likely higher than hits in rounds after that so what you are risking is of a higher value in round 6-9 than it will be in round 12 and I think that difference would more than compensate for the lower hit rate for a later pick as detailed by JJ.

So is that really the better thing to do?

Personally I like taking good WR or QB in those rounds instead of using those picks on ambiguous backfields. The quality of players at those positions tend to be a lot higher in that draft range  than the 1st RB from the team being selected by ADP.

While my odds of hitting on a 2nd or worse RB by ADP in round 12 might be half as much, that gap is made up for by the lower cost of the draft pick.
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I agree. There’s more to the story than just “the guy picked earlier has a higher hit rate so he’s the one who to pick.”

 
Instinctive said:
Doc Oc has it right below. 

If you're trying to have the best chance of a league-winning RB1 in the mid rounds, taking the consensus guy from an ambiguous backfield is clearly the best choice.
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JJ Zachariason covered this in a recent podcast about breakout players and where they come from.   Very well put together.   

 
Dr. Octopus said:
You’re reading too much into what he posted. It’s basically just showing that the consensus is generally correct when it comes to predicting the winner of RB training camp battles.
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I do tend to do that too much.

Sometimes its helpful other times its not.

Thanks for offering a perspective on this I hadn't considered and if that's it then yeah it's not a big deal.

 
kutta said:
I agree. There’s more to the story than just “the guy picked earlier has a higher hit rate so he’s the one who to pick.”
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I'm glad you understand the point I was trying to make, perhaps poorly.

There are a lot of moving parts here.

On principle I try to not buy high.

 
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TripItUp said:
JJ Zachariason covered this in a recent podcast about breakout players and where they come from.   Very well put together.   
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My favorite podcast, I wish I was more of a math guy to keep up sometimes. 

Biabreakable said:
There are a lot of moving parts here.
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That's where I'm at. Lotta bodies, lotta guys who carry the ball, even freaking WRs carry the ball.  

Sermon is without question the best chance to breakout, but I think it's just as likely whoever the breakout backs are this year, none of them come from SF.  

 
12 team keeper league, max 7 each year, no positional limits or term limits. In season roster of 18. Start 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1. Bench 9. No positional limits during season either.

I'm a Waldman enthusiast. Although I don't always agree with him (not my only source) I've made some great picks using the comprehensive player evaluations in his RSP. I targetted & got Chubb in 2018 at 1.09. Nobody else was considering him. (I also snagged Ekeler in the 4th & MaHomes in the 6th that year.)

Last year I gave up quite a few picks to move up to 1.03 to snag Dobbins. A little high but I had no other options if I wanted him, and I did. The owner that should have taken him, the Ingram owner, didn't want him. He's the one who sold me pick 1.03. CEH & Taylor went 1, 2.

This year I'm targetting Sermon. I'll get him. I didn't have a 2021-1st so I traded my first 7 picks (2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5) and my 2024-1st to move from 2.10 up to 1.05. Barring something ridiculous happening the first four picks will be; Harris, Ettienne, J. Williams & Pitts. Sermon is more of a dynasty pick than an expected contributor year one. Same as Dobbins last year.

I've managed to put together a decent keeper squad the last few years and have had the luxury of not needing instant production from my first pick(s.) If I needed that, Sermon would likely not be my target this year.

 
massraider said:
My favorite podcast, I wish I was more of a math guy to keep up sometimes. 

That's where I'm at. Lotta bodies, lotta guys who carry the ball, even freaking WRs carry the ball.  

Sermon is without question the best chance to breakout, but I think it's just as likely whoever the breakout backs are this year, none of them come from SF.  
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Yeah I like Sermon better than SF other options right now, I'm just not sure I like the price enough compared to my other options.

 
Sermon's ADP is going to explode if he gets a fair amount of preseason touches...right now is the sweet spot in drafting season.

 
With Raheem Mostert not playing, Trey Sermon got the start and rushed nine times for 26 yards, in addition to two catches for 14 yards as a receiver.

It's encouraging to see Sermon get the start, even if Mostert didn't play. There has been a steady drumbeat out of 49ers camp that Sermon could have a legitimate role from the get-go. He didn't do much with his touches, but the fact that Kyle Shanahan trusted him right away – rather than making him earn it, as many coaches do – speaks volumes about how the team feels about him.

Aug 14, 2021, 10:53 PM ET
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less than 3 yards per carry? not exactly awe-inspiring. Same with Lance , 5-14 passing on the day? question is , did both guys get these lousy stats against 2nd stringers on defense? 

nothing screams stay away like the SF backfield. worse than the NE backfield.

 
I was excited to see him play. I enjoyed the few times when he demonstrated power, but disappointed in his lack of quickness/decisiveness. 

 
He’s a rookie , so not expecting big things this year with Mostert there.  Still happy getting him at 1.07 in one rookie draft.  

 
Shawnky said:
He’s a rookie , so not expecting big things this year with Mostert there.  Still happy getting him at 1.07 in one rookie draft.  
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I don’t think being a rookie matters much for the RB position, but the presence of Mostert (as long as he stays healthy) certainly  does.

 
I know it was against lesser competition, but I thought hasty looked better than sermon.

sermon had quite a few 2 yards in a cloud of dust kind of runs. 

I think he’s going to be good - not quite there yet. I would like to see him run behind the starting line.

 
zamboni said:
So basically we shouldn’t be hasty to preach about Sermon.
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:lol:  

I was high on Sermon on draft day & I’m still glad they went out and got him. 

Hasty struggled a little last year when given the chance. He looked like an entirely different running back last night. 

I suspect people will be over-investing in Sermon in redraft - if Mostert goes down I expect Hasty, Sermon & Gallman will all be busy. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
:lol:  

I was high on Sermon on draft day & I’m still glad they went out and got him. 

Hasty struggled a little last year when given the chance. He looked like an entirely different running back last night. 

I suspect people will be over-investing in Sermon in redraft - if Mostert goes down I expect Hasty, Sermon & Gallman will all be busy. 
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Always good to have the perspective of homers 👍

 
49ers RB Trey Sermon rushed seven times for 37 yards in Sunday's preseason finale. 

Raheem Mostert started, but Sermon played the 49ers' second series with the starters still in the game. Sermon is going to have a significant role this season, regardless of who technically starts at running back. Drafters have preferred Sermon all summer, and while Mostert is likely to outscore the rookie early in the year, Sermon's role has more potential to grow as the season goes on.

RELATED: 

Raheem Mostert

Aug 29, 2021, 6:29 PM ET
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the way they plan to use Trey Lance - as a wildcat, gadget type guy - rotating Qbs and running fake handoff qb keepers, this is going to seriously cut down on the effectiveness of the SF run game in that Lance is going to snag a lot of that action. I also think Aiyuk takes a big hit here too. I saw a lot of mistakes and nonsense type play from Lance that it makes me wonder if he can be an effective passer. 

 
Biabreakable said:
How's following ADP working out for you in this case?

It's not. Its hurting you.
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That’s an idiotic statement. ADP is relatively accurate and many pundits had them there.

They moved up in the 2nd round to take a 1 cut runner perfect for their system.

There was NO indication of a healthy scratch.

Patience is required, and the post game remarks…possible “Shenanigans”.

 
kencav said:
That’s an idiotic statement. ADP is relatively accurate and many pundits had them there.

They moved up in the 2nd round to take a 1 cut runner perfect for their system.

There was NO indication of a healthy scratch.

Patience is required, and the post game remarks…possible “Shenanigans”.
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Idiotic?

JJs advice to go with ADP is one of the worst ideas I heard during this offseason.

Good luck to you if you think you will gain any advantage following the wisdom of the crowd 

 
kencav said:
You follow ADP to know WHERE the crowd goes when making your draft plan….
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I liked this not for the challenging tone, but for this statement. This is why ADP is important. It allows you to plan your own draft through crowd consensus. You figure out where you can beat or get market value for guys.

 
I’m not crazy enough to start him or anything but Hasty was a dynasty sleeper of mine from last year that I hung onto, and I still like him for when Mostert inevitably snaps a tibia or something after a tantalizing 200/2 game.

 
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