Donald Trump (R-inc.) vs. Joe Biden (D)
538 win probabilities: 89.3% Biden, 10.3% Trump
538 national polling average: Biden 51.8% (+8.4), Trump 43.4%
Battleground states:
MICHIGAN (16 electoral votes)
75% white, 14% Black, 5% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +10
2016: Trump +0.2
538 polling average: Biden +8
538 win probabilities: Biden 95%, Trump 5%
Counties to watch:
Macomb (Detroit suburbs)
78% white, 13% Black, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +12
Calhoun (Battle Creek)
77% white, 11% Black, 6% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +12
Saginaw
69% white, 19% Black, 9% Latino, 21.1% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Trump +1
Oakland (Detroit suburbs)
72% white, 14% Black, 8% Asian, 46.4% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +8
2016: Clinton +8
Genesee (Flint)
72% white, 20% Black, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +9
PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes)
76% white, 12% Black, 8% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +4.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 84%, Trump 16%
Counties to watch:
Lackawanna (Scranton)
84% white, 8% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +27
2016: Clinton +3
Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre)
79% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +19
Beaver (Pittsburgh exurbs)
89% white, 7% Black, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +7
2016: Trump +19
Chester (Philadelphia suburbs)
79% white, 6% Black, 8% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +1
2016: Clinton +10
Montgomery (Philadelphia suburbs)
75% white, 10% Black, 8% Asian, 5% Latino, 49% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Clinton +22
WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)
81% white, 6% Black, 7% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +0.7
538 polling average: Biden +8.4
538 win probabilities: Biden 94%, Trump 6%
Counties to watch:
Brown (Green Bay)
80% white, 9% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +12
Kenosha
75% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 26% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +12
2016: Trump +1
Waukesha (Milwaukee suburbs)
88% white, 4% Asian, 5% Latino, 44% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +27
Winnebago (Oshkosh)
68% white, 14% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +7
Racine (Milwaukee suburbs)
71% white, 12% Black, 14% Latino, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +5
FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)
53% white, 17% Black, 26% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +2.5
538 win probabilities: Biden 69% (nice), Trump 31%
Counties to watch:
Sumter (The Villages)
85% white, 7% Black, 6% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +39
Duval (Jacksonville)
52% white, 31% Back, 11% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +3
2016: Trump +1
Miami-Dade (Miami)
13% white, 18% Black, 69% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +24
2016: Clinton +30
Broward (Fort Lauderdale)
35% white, 30% Black, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +35
2016: Clinton +36
Pinellas (St. Petersburg)
74% white, 11% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +2
NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)
63% white, 22% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +4
538 polling average: Biden +2.8
538 win probabilities: Biden 64%, Trump 36%
Counties to watch
Wake (Raleigh)
60% white, 21% Black, 10% Latino, 8% Asian, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Clinton +20
Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
46% white, 33% Black, 14% Latino, 6% Asian, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +29
Robeson (Lumberton)
25% White, 24% Black, 42% American Indian, 9% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +17
2016: Trump +4
Durham
43% white, 37% Black, 14% Latino, 48% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +53
2016: Clinton +60
Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
71% white, 18% Black, 8% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +25
2016: Trump +32
ARIZONA (10 electoral votes)
54% white, 5% Black, 5% American Indian, 32% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +9
2016: Trump +3.5
538 polling average: Biden +2.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 68%, Trump 32%
Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)
55% white, 6% Back, 5% Asian, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +10
2016: Trump +3
Pima (Tuscon)
51% white, 4% Black, 4% American Indian, 38% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Clinton +13
Yuma
30% white, 65% Latino, 15% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +13
2016: Trump +1
Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
56% white, 31% Latino, 7% American Indian, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +19
Mohave (Rural NW Arizona)
77% white, 17% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +42
2016: Trump +51
GEORGIA (16 electoral votes)
52% white, 33% Black, 4% Asian, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +7.8
2016: Trump +5.1
538 polling average: Biden +1.1
538 win probabilities: Biden 58%, Trump 42%
Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)
35% white, 30% Black, 13% Asian, 22% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +9
2016: Clinton +6
Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
51% white, 29% Black, 13% Latino, 6% Asian, 47% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +12
2016: Clinton +2
Peach (Fort Valley)
45% white, 44% Black, 8% Latino, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +3
Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
69% white, 16% Asian, 10% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +63
2016: Trump +47
Fulton (Atlanta)
40% white, 45% Black, 8% Asian, 7% Latino, 51% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +42
IOWA (6 electoral votes)
85% white, 4% Black, 6% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +6
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.3
538 win probabilities: Trump 60%, Biden 40%
Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)
85% white, 6% Black, 3% Latino, 33% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +18
2016: Clinton +9
Dubuque
90% white, 4% Black, 3% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Trump +1
Polk (Des Moines)
77% white, 7% Black, 9% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +12
Woodbury (Sioux City)
71% white, 5% Black, 17% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +20
Scott (Davenport)
80% white, 8% Black, 7% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +2
OHIO (18 electoral votes)
78% white, 13% Black, 4% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +8
538 polling average: Trump +0.7
538 win probabilities: Trump 55%, Biden 45%
Counties to watch
Stark (Canton)
86% white, 8% Black, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Trump +17
Montgomery (Dayton)
70% white, 22% Black, 27% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1
Mahoning (Youngstown)
76% white, 16% Black, 7% Latino, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +3
Trumbull (Warren)
87% white, 9% Black, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Trump +6
Franklin (Columbus)
62% White, 24% Black, 6% Asian, 6% Latino, 39% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +26
TEXAS (38 electoral votes)
41% white, 40% Latino, 13% Black, 5% Asian, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.2
538 win probabilities: Trump 62%, Biden 38%
Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)
29% white, 20% Black, 44% Latino, 7% Asian, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Clinton +12
Tarrant (Fort Worth)
45% white, 18% Black, 30% Latino, 6% Asian, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9
Collin (Dallas suburbs)
55% white, 11% Black, 16% Asian, 16% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +17
Denton (Dallas suburbs)
58% white, 11% Black, 10% Asian, 20% Latino, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +20
Hays (Austin suburbs)
53% white, 40% Latino, 5% Black, 37% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +11
2016: Trump +1
Similar for key Senate races:
Current Senate balance: 53R - 47D
538 probabilities of earning Senate control: Dems 74%, GOP 26%
Doug Jones is all but finished in Alabama, so Dems need to flip at least four seats to control the Senate. AZ, CO, ME, and NC are their top targets. Beyond the "core four," Democrats have aspirations in red states such as MT, SC, AK, IA, and KS, meaning ticket splitting will be crucial for their success. Below I look at important counties in each race, usually those that swing the most from the Presidential race to down-ballot races.
KANSAS
Roger Marshall (R) vs. Barbara Bollier (D)
538 win probabilities: Marshall 80%, Bollier 20%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Kelly (D) +4
Counties to watch
Johnson County (KC Suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +2
2018 Gov: Kelly +17
Sedgwick (Wichita)
2016 Pres: Trump +18
2018 Gov: Kelly +4
Douglas (Lawrence)
2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Kelly +53
Shawnee (Topeka)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kelly +24
MONTANA
Steve Bullock (D) vs. Steve Daines (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Daines 69% (nice), Bullock 31%
2016 Gov: Bullock (D) +4
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Tester (D) +4
Counties to watch
Yellowstone (Billings)
2016 Gov: Gianforte (R) +1
2016 Pres: Trump +26
2018 Sen: Rosendale (R) +5
Missoula
2016 Gov: Bullock +34
2016 Pres: Clinton +15
2018 Sen: Tester +37
Lewis and Clark (Helena)
2016 Gov: Bullock +23
2016 Pres: Trump +7
2018 Sen: Tester +18
Cascade (Great Falls)
2016 Gov: Bullock +10
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Sen: Tester +6
Silver Bow (Butte)
2016 Gov: Bullock +44
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Sen: Tester +46
COLORADO
John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Hickenlooper 84%, Gardner 16%
2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis (D) +11
Counties to watch
Larimer (Fort Collins)
2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis +13
Jefferson (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +7
2018 Gov: Polis +13
Arapahoe (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Gov: Polis +18
El Paso (Colorado Springs)
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Gov: Stapleton (R) +17
Pueblo
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Polis +6
MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) vs. Susan Collins (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Giden 59%, Collins 41%
2016 Pres: Clinton +3
2018 Gov: Mills (D) +8
Counties to watch
Penobscot (Bangor)
2016 Pres: Trump +11
2018 Gov: Moody (R) +4
Hancock (Ellsworth)
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Mills +14
Washington (Machias)
2016 Pres: Trump +16
2018 Gov: Moody +6
ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) vs. Martha McSally (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Kelly 78%, McSally 22%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2018 Sen: Sinema (D) +2
Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Sen: Sinema +4
Yuma
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: McSally (R) +6
Pima (Tuscon)
2016 Pres: Clinton +13
2018 Sen: Sinema +16
Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +19
2018 Sen: McSally +11
NORTH CAROLINA
Thom Tillis (R-inc.) vs. “Frisky Cal” Cunningham (D)
538 win probabilities: Cunningham 68%, Tillis 32%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: Cooper (D) +0
Counties to watch – this one is a little boring! Cooper outperformed Trump primarily in Appalachia, so he and Trump have nearly identical margins in these key counties. It’s unlikely that Cunningham will have similar strength in rural western NC, so he’ll be hoping to improve on Clinton/Cooper's margins here:
Wake (Raleigh)
2016 Pres: Clinton +20
2016 Gov: Cooper +20
Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
2016 Pres: Clinton +29
2016 Gov: Cooper +29
Robeson (Lumberton)
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: McCrory +7
Durham
2016 Pres: Clinton +60
2016 Gov: Cooper +59
Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +32
2016 Gov: McCrory (R) +27
SOUTH CAROLINA
Jaime Harrison (D) vs. Lindsey Graham (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Graham 77%, Harrison 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: McMaster (R) +8
Counties to watch
Richland (Columbia)
2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Smith (D) +41
Charleston
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Smith +15
Horry (Myrtle Beach)
2016 Pres: Trump +38
2018 Gov: McMaster +30
Beaufort
2016 Pres: Trump +14
2018 Gov: McMaster +9
Greenville
2016 Pres: Trump +25
2018 Gov: McMaster +16
IOWA
Theresa Greenfield (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Ernst 58%, Greenfield 42%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Gov: Reynolds (R) +3
Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)
2016 Pres: Clinton +9
2018 Gov: Hubbell (D) +14
Dubuque
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Hubbell +1
Polk (Des Moines)
2016: Clinton +12
2018: Hubbell +17
Woodbury (Sioux City)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Reynolds +13
Scott (Davenport)
2016: Clinton +2
2018: Hubbell +4
TEXAS
M.J. Hegar (D) vs. John Cornyn (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Cornyn 86%, Hegar 14%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: Cruz +3
Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)
2016 Pres: Clinton +12
2018 Sen: O’Rourke (D) +17
Tarrant (Fort Worth)
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +1
Collin (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +17
2018 Sen: Cruz +6
Denton (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Cruz +8
Hays (Austin suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +15
ALASKA
Dan Sullivan (R-inc.) vs. Al Gross (D)
538 win probabilities: Sullivan 77%, Gross 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +15
2018 Gov: Dunleavy (R) +7
Counties to watch
Alaska doesn’t have counties, and I wasn’t able to quickly track down good data by borough. Sorry!
GEORGIA
(1) Jon Ossoff (D) vs. David Perdue (R-inc.);
(2) Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Kelly Loeffler (R-inc.) vs. Doug Collins (R) vs. Matt Lieberman (D)
538 win probabilities (Special election): Democrats 63%, Republicans 37%
538 win probabilities (Regular): Perdue 57%, Ossoff 43%
2016 Pres: Trump +5
2018 Gov: Kemp (R) +1
Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +6
2018 Gov: Abrams (D) +14
Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +2
2018 Gov: Abrams +10
Peach (Fort Valley)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kemp +5
Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +47
2018 Gov: Kemp +43
Fulton (Atlanta)
2016 Pres: Clinton +42
2018 Gov: Abrams +47
538 gives Dems a 97% chance of keeping the House, so those races have largely been forgotten this year. Here's a brief take on some of the ones I'm watching:
(R incumbent) NE-02 (Omaha)
Don Bacon (R-inc.) vs. Kara Eastman (D)
NE-02 has received quite a bit of national attention as a pickup opportunity for Joe Biden since Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by district. An unabashed progressive, Eastman is underperforming Biden but running neck-and-neck with Bacon. The latest NYT/Siena poll showed Biden leading by 7 (a 9-point shift from 2016) but Eastman trailing by 2.
(D) MN-07 (Rural Minnesota)
Collin Peterson (D-inc.) vs. Michelle Fischbach (R)
Considering that MN-07 voted for Trump by 31 points in 2016, it’s amazing that Peterson, a 15-term incumbent who chairs the House agriculture committee, has held on so long. The realities of this deep red district may finally be catching up to him, though, as the only publicly available poll shows Fischbach leading by 10.
(R) NJ-02 (Atlantic City)
Jeff Van Drew (R-inc.) vs. Amy Kennedy (D)
Van Drew made a name for himself by switching parties during Trump’s impeachment. At the time, Van Drew vowed to be a “tremendous defender” of the President, but he’s now adopted a more independent message after trailing in several polls. Biden has an average lead of 2.4 points here, a 7-point shift from 2016.
(R) VA-05 (Rural Virginia)
Bob Good (R) vs. Cameron Webb (D)
Last year it came out that VA-05 incumbent Denver Riggleman officiated a gay wedding. This triggered a primary challenge from Bob Good, who ran significantly to Riggleman’s right. Good won the primary but is now in danger of losing this rural district to Democrats. Biden is trailing in this district by an average of 2.5 points, an 8.6-point leftward shift from 2016, showing his strength with white rural voters relative to Clinton.
(R) IN-05 (Indianapolis suburbs)
Victoria Spartz (R) vs. Christina Hale (D)
IN-05 is another suburban district that’s zoomed leftward over the last four years. Polls show Biden leading here by an average of 10 points, a 22-point shift from 2016. Hale is hoping to ride Biden’s coattails and become the first House Democrat to be elected here since 1990.
(L) MI-03 (Grand Rapids)
Peter Meijer (R) vs. Hillary Scholten (D)
Home of the retiring Justin Amash, this district has also not elected a Democrat to the House since 1990. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016. Scholten is also leading by an average 4.5 points, drawing on the healthcare & jobs message that Democrats used in their 2018 blue wave.
(R) TX-24 (DFW suburbs)
Beth Van Duyne (R) vs. Candace Valenzuela (D)
Republican incumbent Kenny Marchant narrowly won re-election in 2018 and is retiring at the end of this year. This is another suburban pickup opportunity for Democrats – Biden leads by an average of 5 points, an 11-point shift from 2016. A sign of the district’s changing partisan preferences, Van Duyne has at times shied away from the Republican label and is campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions. Valenzuela maintains a solid advantage in fundraising.
(D) NY-22 (Binghamton/Utica)
Anthony Brindisi (D-inc.) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)
There’s been tons of coverage of Democrats’ inroads in suburban communities, but NY-22 is a different story: it’s filled with white working-class voters who switched from Obama to Trump en masse in 2016. Polls show Biden clawing back many of those voters – Siena college has Biden up 1 point, a 16.5-point shift from 2016. Brindisi is hoping to beat his 2018 margin of victory in an environment that’s even more favorable to Democrats.
(D) OK-05 (OKC/Shawnee)
Kendra Horn (D-inc.) vs. Stephanie Bice (R)
Horn surprised many people by narrowly winning this Trump +13 district in 2018. While the district is shifting in Democrats’ favor – Trump leads by an average of 4 points, a 9-point shift – it remains difficult terrain for Horn. Polls indicate a tossup here.
(R) PA-10 (Harrisburg)
Scott Perry (R-inc.) vs. Eugene DePasquale (D)
In early 2018, the PA Supreme Court ruled that the state’s congressional map was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. PA-10, originally a Trump +22 district, was re-drawn into a Trump +9 district. Scott Perry won by only 2.5 points in 2018 and appears to be facing even stronger headwinds in 2020. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016.
Other House races to watch: IA-01, IA-02, NY-11, AR-02, CA-25, MO-02, NY-02, TX-21, TX-22, NC-09, CA-21, UT-04
Can't wait to see how all this shakes out.