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Georgia: the Battle for the Senate (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
We move on. Two runoffs on January 5 that will decide control of the Senate. Some predictions (because I’m so good at them): 

1. More money will be spent on this election than on any state election ever. If you live in Georgia you’re going to be miserable. 
2. There won’t be any split result. Almost everyone who votes will either vote for both Republicans or both Democrats. 
3. There will be few personal issues about each candidate in play. This will be a party election: Democrat vs. Republican. Biden’s agenda vs stop Biden’s agenda. 
 

You’ve gotta favor the Republicans. Perdue already beat Ossoff, performing better than Trump did. Runoff elections typically favor Republicans too. And despite Biden’s amazing performance in Georgia and the changing demographics that made it possible, it’s still a red state, right? 
And yet...

 
timschochet said:
We move on. Two runoffs on January 5 that will decide control of the Senate. Some predictions (because I’m so good at them): 

1. More money will be spent on this election than on any state election ever. If you live in Georgia you’re going to be miserable. 
2. There won’t be any split result. Almost everyone who votes will either vote for both Republicans or both Democrats. 
3. There will be few personal issues about each candidate in play. This will be a party election: Democrat vs. Republican. Biden’s agenda vs stop Biden’s agenda. 
 

You’ve gotta favor the Republicans. Perdue already beat Ossoff, performing better than Trump did. Runoff elections typically favor Republicans too. And despite Biden’s amazing performance in Georgia and the changing demographics that made it possible, it’s still a red state, right? 
And yet...
Click to expand...
I would 100% agree, if not for Stacey Abrams. She seems to have a Clyburn-level of ability to deliver votes. This is going to be tight, I think. The excitement from turning GA blue could drive some voters, too, and shouldn’t be overlooked, imo.
 

I’m not sure how to look at this one, and I’m not trusting polling right now, so I feel a bit blind. 

 
The Football Freak said:
I would 100% agree, if not for Stacey Abrams. She seems to have a Clyburn-level of ability to deliver votes. This is going to be tight, I think. The excitement from turning GA blue could drive some voters, too, and shouldn’t be overlooked, imo.
 

I’m not sure how to look at this one, and I’m not trusting polling right now, so I feel a bit blind. 
Click to expand...


Also - Trump is such a wild card. Who knows how he is going to behave between now and then and how that will affect the election.

 
whoknew said:
Also - Trump is such a wild card. Who knows how he is going to behave between now and then and how that will affect the election.
Click to expand...
This is the wildcard. I can't imagine him going down to Georgia to campaign for Perdue and Loeffler. If he doesn't pay attention to it, his supporters may not turnout. 

 
Anything can happen.

I think winning POTUS was seen as the big goal, and people to some extent will have vote/politics exhaustion after so much emotion in this thing.

On the flip side, I think the GOP will be re-energized after their red state went blue.  Purdue outperformed Trump.  As tim pointed out, Republicans typically show up better in these things.  

But if the Dems are energized after this big win, it could go either way.

 
whoknew said:
Also - Trump is such a wild card. Who knows how he is going to behave between now and then and how that will affect the election.
Click to expand...
Have these candidates distanced themselves from trump? If not, they can’t now, because there will be a lot of angry supporters in GA who will not be thrilled. If so, they could have a lot of angry supporters already, questioning their R-ness. R surge? Depressed enthusiasm? As I sit here thinking it over, I just get more confused. 

 
The Football Freak said:
Have these candidates distanced themselves from trump? If not, they can’t now, because there will be a lot of angry supporters in GA who will not be thrilled. If so, they could have a lot of angry supporters already, questioning their R-ness. R surge? Depressed enthusiasm? As I sit here thinking it over, I just get more confused. 
Click to expand...
Loeffler?  Hah!  Her entire campaign platform was "I support Trump".  Well, that and, "I did nothing illegal."

 
Rich Conway said:
Loeffler?  Hah!  Her entire campaign platform was "I support Trump".  Well, that and, "I did nothing illegal."
Click to expand...
Thank you. I didn’t follow the GA races as closely as I should’ve. Huh. I’m not sure how that would play out post today. My gut says it could work against her. 

 
I would love to be wrong, but no one's convincing me Georgia's going blue in a runoff election until after it happens.

 
Boston said:
Question after watching the debacle this week...is it same day voting for this?
Click to expand...
Yes.  Haven't you heard, COVID is going away after the election!

In all seriousness, I don't think so.  I saw somewhere on Twitter where you can request absentee ballots starting this month.  I assume it will be handled similiar to this election.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
History shows us that anger motivates more than jubilation.  I don't think this will be particularly close.  If it is, major props for the voodoo Abrams possesses to turn out the vote against odds.  If I am the Dem party, I am absolutely hammering home the fact that this isn't over, that Biden was the first step but not enough and that they need the Senate to stop the "party of no" dead in their tracks.  That would be my message if I was pushing the buttons and pulling the levers of the party.

 
The Commish said:
History shows us that anger motivates more than jubilation.  I don't think this will be particularly close.  If it is, major props for the voodoo Abrams possesses to turn out the vote against odds.  If I am the Dem party, I am absolutely hammering home the fact that this isn't over, that Biden was the first step but not enough and that they need the Senate to stop the "party of no" dead in their tracks.  That would be my message if I was pushing the buttons and pulling the levers of the party.
Click to expand...
The problem is that Biden is intent on his message of healing and reconciliation with Trump supporters. Which I think is important. But you can’t do that during the next 60 days and at the same time attack Senate Republicans. That’s going to be difficult. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
timschochet said:
The problem is that Biden is intent on his message of healing and reconciliation with Trump supporters. Which I think is important. But you can’t do that during the next 60 days and at the same time attack Senate Republicans. That’s going to be difficult. 
Click to expand...
Biden can stay positive, but others won't. I also think policy disagreement rises to the level of problem Biden is talking about when saying stay positive. He can talk about the need for a COVID stimulus and state the fact that the GOP controlled Senate is what is holding this up.

 
timschochet said:
The problem is that Biden is intent on his message of healing and reconciliation with Trump supporters. Which I think is important. But you can’t do that during the next 60 days and at the same time attack Senate Republicans. That’s going to be difficult. 
Click to expand...
Biden doesn't have to say a word :shrug:  

 
Email fundraising machine in full effect:

The Senate races in Georgia are both officially headed to runoffs, Joe. I hope that you’ll give me a second to explain exactly why your support of Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, and the Democratic Party is so critical in this moment, then split a $10 donation between their campaigns and the DNC to win the two Senate runoffs in Georgia.

We have officially flipped two Senate seats so far. Regaining a Senate majority is still within our reach, but we can’t afford to let our foot off the pedal now. Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are now both facing Senate runoff elections in January, and I know that if this team digs deep and shows up the way we did for Joe Biden, we can win them both.

To be direct: Flipping the Senate runs straight through these Senate seats in Georgia. And Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, and the Democratic Party are depending on an urgent surge of donations from this group of grassroots Democrats right now.

If your budget allows, please rush a $10 donation split between Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, and the DNC to help win these runoffs, flip the Senate, and support Democrats nationwide:

DONATE: $10
DONATE: $25
DONATE: $50
DONATE: $100
DONATE: $250
Donate another amount

Joe, we cannot leave control of the Senate up to chance. Republicans are going to fight tooth and nail to maintain their stranglehold on the state of Georgia and on the U.S. Senate -- and it'll all come down to these two races. There couldn't be a more critical time to stand with Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, and the DNC, so I’m asking:

Will you make a $10 donation split between Jon's and Raphael’s campaigns and Democrats nationwide?

Thanks for your support,

Tom

Tom Perez
Chair
Democratic National Committee

P.S. All eyes are on Georgia -- and we can't give up until we run through the tape. Please, Joe: Split a $10 donation between Jon and Raphael’s campaigns and Democrats nationwide.
Click to expand...

 
Any chance that Donald Trump's unsubstantiated claims of election voter fraud cause enough Republicans to believe that it is a fruitless endeavor to vote in the special election and in turn allow the Democrats to pull off a double upset win?

 
Rich Conway said:
Still thinking $1B total spending between both parties is a possibility.
Click to expand...
Nothing would surprise me on that. 

I wonder if the Democrat leaning public is as pessimistic as the PSF democrats on winning both seats.

I talked to my conservative friend today and was telling him about how down our guys here were on Dems going 2-0 and he was floored. 

 
My guess is Trump drove a lot of the Democratic turnout. It's gonna be a gut punch, but I just don't see them turning out enough voters to win either of these two Senate seats.

 
timschochet said:
We move on. Two runoffs on January 5 that will decide control of the Senate. Some predictions (because I’m so good at them): 

1. More money will be spent on this election than on any state election ever. If you live in Georgia you’re going to be miserable. 
2. There won’t be any split result. Almost everyone who votes will either vote for both Republicans or both Democrats. 
3. There will be few personal issues about each candidate in play. This will be a party election: Democrat vs. Republican. Biden’s agenda vs stop Biden’s agenda. 
 

You’ve gotta favor the Republicans. Perdue already beat Ossoff, performing better than Trump did. Runoff elections typically favor Republicans too. And despite Biden’s amazing performance in Georgia and the changing demographics that made it possible, it’s still a red state, right? 
And yet...
Click to expand...
Hey, we just helped win Biden the Presidency - I'm celebrating even if the Senate stays red.

 
I’ve heard some speculation today that the reason McConnell is playing footsie with Trump’s conspiracy theories is that he wants the base so outraged that they’ll be energized to vote in Georgia. 
The problem with this strategy, if it’s true, is that I don’t believe McConnell or other Republicans can motivate the Trump base. Trump can, but will he? Long before January 5 he will know he’s not going to be President any longer (assuming he doesn’t know it already) and will he really be motivated to help out the GOP? Guess we’ll find out. 

 
timschochet said:
I’ve heard some speculation today that the reason McConnell is playing footsie with Trump’s conspiracy theories is that he wants the base so outraged that they’ll be energized to vote in Georgia. 
The problem with this strategy, if it’s true, is that I don’t believe McConnell or other Republicans can motivate the Trump base. Trump can, but will he? Long before January 5 he will know he’s not going to be President any longer (assuming he doesn’t know it already) and will he really be motivated to help out the GOP? Guess we’ll find out. 
Click to expand...
What other option does McConnell have?

 
AAABatteries said:
Meh - I never watch commercials anyway.  Watching live TV is archaic.
Click to expand...
If you've effortlessly figured out how to bypass commercials during football broadcasts then I salute you and would like to subscribe to your newsletter, good sir. 

 
MAC_32 said:
If you've effortlessly figured out how to bypass commercials during football broadcasts then I salute you and would like to subscribe to your newsletter, good sir. 
Click to expand...
:confused: - I guess it depends on your definition of effortless but my method is to basically start watching a game about an hour late and then fast forward through the commercials.  I sometimes catch the last few seconds of the last commercial but I just ignore whatever it is.  Most of the time when they come back from commercial they aren't showing a play immediately so typically I just miss riveting stuff like "welcome back to Soldier Field where the Bears look horrible again but somehow have the lead...."

 
timschochet said:
I’ve heard some speculation today that the reason McConnell is playing footsie with Trump’s conspiracy theories is that he wants the base so outraged that they’ll be energized to vote in Georgia. 
The problem with this strategy, if it’s true, is that I don’t believe McConnell or other Republicans can motivate the Trump base. Trump can, but will he? Long before January 5 he will know he’s not going to be President any longer (assuming he doesn’t know it already) and will he really be motivated to help out the GOP? Guess we’ll find out. 
Click to expand...
If you think "Trump's base" is convinced the election was stolen and they're just going to sit this one out and let the Dems have the White House, Senate and House--I have to disagree.

 
I really dislike Loeffler. She’s the exact reason people are so fed up with our government. She’s a crook who should probably be in jail. Worth over $100 million. Why even go into government? 
 

Anyways, runoffs don’t go well for democrats typically. Also, I think somebody got in Trump’s ear and he is actually going down to Georgia and campaign for them. 
 

Best case scenario is the runoffs being split. No way democrats take both those seats. 

 
jm192 said:
If you think "Trump's base" is convinced the election was stolen and they're just going to sit this one out and let the Dems have the White House, Senate and House--I have to disagree.
Click to expand...
I don't know.

I think a percentage of his base is less interested in the traditional political catfight and was motivated mainly by Trump himself.  I'd expect that a certain percentage of those people who were "first time or long time" voters in 16 (and presumably 20), without the gravitas of Trump's persona and platform, would fall back into voting limbo; content to push the issue of politics and (by extension) voting to the backburner of their life; where it was before Trump.

That being said, with the POTUS election being so close to this one, and bad blood running rampant....I'd expect them to come out just as a final, farwell "F.U." to those who Trump owned so hard during his single term; as revenge for overthrowing the Trump Empire.  I'd be much more willing to believe these voters would be sitting out if this special election were 6/12 months from now.

But...I also wouldn't be surprised if Stacey Abrams managed to pull another one off as well.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thunderlips said:
I don't know.

I think a percentage of his base is less interested in the traditional political catfight and was motivated mainly by Trump himself.  I'd expect that a certain percentage of those people who were "first time or long time" voters in 16 (and presumably 20), without the gravitas of Trump's persona and platform, would fall back into voting limbo; content to push the issue of politics and (by extension) voting to the backburner of their life; where it was before Trump.

That being said, with the POTUS election being so close to this one, and bad blood running rampant....I'd expect them to come out just as a final, farwell "F.U." to those who Trump owned so hard.  I'd be much more willing to believe these voters would be sitting out if this special election were 6/12 months from now.

But...I also wouldn't be surprised if Stacey Abrams managed to pull another one off as well.  
Click to expand...
There will be Trump supporters that aren't motivated to show up for a run-off. There will also be those who were motivated to show up in November solely to vote Trump out that won't show up to this either. If anyone has any factual data that indicates which group is more likely to be effected I'd be interested to read it, but I also don't expect such a dataset to exist. Til that point the Abrams v Kemp data point is where I am wrt the best case scenario. The former was a (relatively) great candidate and the latter a (relatively) awful one and all that meant was the margin of victory was small. I think Loeffler, Perdue, and Kemp are all cut from the same cloth. I don't know if either Warnock or Ossoff are as strong of candidates as Abrams, but I don't think it matters anyway.

 
jm192 said:
If you think "Trump's base" is convinced the election was stolen and they're just going to sit this one out and let the Dems have the White House, Senate and House--I have to disagree.
Click to expand...
The majority of "his base" will follow his lead.  If he's "meh, whatever" they will be too...that's a guaranteed lock.  I see ZERO evidence of that being untrue.  

 
The Commish said:
The majority of "his base" will follow his lead.  If he's "meh, whatever" they will be too...that's a guaranteed lock.  I see ZERO evidence of that being untrue.  
Click to expand...
I was hoping Trump would just give a big middle finger to the Georgia runoffs out of spite for losing since he’s so self-centered and narcissistic. Having a 50-50 split for the senate with Harris being the tie breaker means nothing to him since he’ll no longer be president. I wonder who told got in his ear and made him go to Georgia? I could have sworn he wasn’t initially. 

 
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/georgia-secretary-of-state-investigating-voter-registration-group-run-by-warnock/

"The New Georgia Project, a voter registration group formerly led by Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Raphael Warnock, is under investigation for allegedly sending ballot applications to non-residents, the Georgia secretary of state said Monday.

Warnock was CEO of the group, which was originally founded by failed gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, until February. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced the group, and three others, are under investigation for improper registration activities.

While Raffensperger, a Republican who has been vocal in debunking President Trump’s claims of election fraud, said that he has not seen signs of widespread, systemic fraud, there is evidence of “third-party groups working to register people in other states to vote here in Georgia.”

Raffensperger said the New Georgia Project “sent voter registration applications to New York City,” in a potential violation of state law.

“Voting in Georgia when you are not a resident of Georgia is a felony,” Raffensperger said. “These third-party groups have a responsibility to not encourage illegal voting. If they do so, they will be held responsible.”"

*****

https://www.cbs46.com/news/georgia-secretary-of-state-says-group-sent-voter-registration-reminder-to-his-dead-son/article_bf5e5206-34ae-11eb-b466-4b8063c70ebc.html

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told reporters Wednesday that a voter advocacy group sent voter registration reminders to his dead son.

Raffensperger held up the postcards at a news conference at the Georgia Capitol. 

“Here’s something that came to our house yesterday. We got three of them all from the same organization. It’s to my son Brenton J. Raffensperger who passed away two years ago," Raffensperger said. "He is not on our voter files here in Georgia. We checked.”....

"Over the past several weeks, individuals in Georgia and around the country have reported voter registration solicitations sent by The New Georgia Project to individuals living out of state and people who have passed away. One Fulton County resident reported receiving 5 postcards from The New Georgia Project soliciting a registration “for the same dead person.” A Cherokee County resident received a voter registration solicitation from The New Georgia Project for his spouse who is ineligible to vote. A third complaint said The New Georgia Project sent a voter registration solicitation to his daughter who is not registered to vote in Georgia and had not lived in a different state for five years. A fourth individual reported receiving a “package of postcards” at her home in New York City from The New Georgia Project encouraging people to register to vote in the Georgia Senate runoffs.

Another effort, Operation New Voter Registration GA, encouraged Emory students to register fraudulently to vote in the January 5 runoffs. A flier from the group told students that “Your current residence can be another state. You are simply changing your state of residence now; and it can be switched back for future elections (your option).” To register to vote in Georgia, individuals must be residents of the state with no intention to leave.

Vote Forward, a nonprofit organization, sent a letter to a long-deceased Alabama resident, encouraging her to register to vote.

America Votes, which calls itself “the coordination hub of the progressive community,” sent two absentee ballot applications in one week to an individual at an address where they had not resided since July 1994."

 
GordonGekko said:
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/georgia-secretary-of-state-investigating-voter-registration-group-run-by-warnock/

"The New Georgia Project, a voter registration group formerly led by Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Raphael Warnock, is under investigation for allegedly sending ballot applications to non-residents, the Georgia secretary of state said Monday.

Warnock was CEO of the group, which was originally founded by failed gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, until February. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced the group, and three others, are under investigation for improper registration activities.

While Raffensperger, a Republican who has been vocal in debunking President Trump’s claims of election fraud, said that he has not seen signs of widespread, systemic fraud, there is evidence of “third-party groups working to register people in other states to vote here in Georgia.”

Raffensperger said the New Georgia Project “sent voter registration applications to New York City,” in a potential violation of state law.

“Voting in Georgia when you are not a resident of Georgia is a felony,” Raffensperger said. “These third-party groups have a responsibility to not encourage illegal voting. If they do so, they will be held responsible.”"

*****

https://www.cbs46.com/news/georgia-secretary-of-state-says-group-sent-voter-registration-reminder-to-his-dead-son/article_bf5e5206-34ae-11eb-b466-4b8063c70ebc.html

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told reporters Wednesday that a voter advocacy group sent voter registration reminders to his dead son.

Raffensperger held up the postcards at a news conference at the Georgia Capitol. 

“Here’s something that came to our house yesterday. We got three of them all from the same organization. It’s to my son Brenton J. Raffensperger who passed away two years ago," Raffensperger said. "He is not on our voter files here in Georgia. We checked.”....

"Over the past several weeks, individuals in Georgia and around the country have reported voter registration solicitations sent by The New Georgia Project to individuals living out of state and people who have passed away. One Fulton County resident reported receiving 5 postcards from The New Georgia Project soliciting a registration “for the same dead person.” A Cherokee County resident received a voter registration solicitation from The New Georgia Project for his spouse who is ineligible to vote. A third complaint said The New Georgia Project sent a voter registration solicitation to his daughter who is not registered to vote in Georgia and had not lived in a different state for five years. A fourth individual reported receiving a “package of postcards” at her home in New York City from The New Georgia Project encouraging people to register to vote in the Georgia Senate runoffs.

Another effort, Operation New Voter Registration GA, encouraged Emory students to register fraudulently to vote in the January 5 runoffs. A flier from the group told students that “Your current residence can be another state. You are simply changing your state of residence now; and it can be switched back for future elections (your option).” To register to vote in Georgia, individuals must be residents of the state with no intention to leave.

Vote Forward, a nonprofit organization, sent a letter to a long-deceased Alabama resident, encouraging her to register to vote.

America Votes, which calls itself “the coordination hub of the progressive community,” sent two absentee ballot applications in one week to an individual at an address where they had not resided since July 1994."
Click to expand...
Once you're on a bulk mail list....you're on the bulk mail (nWo)....."FOR LIFE!"

 
Gachi said:
I was hoping Trump would just give a big middle finger to the Georgia runoffs out of spite for losing since he’s so self-centered and narcissistic. Having a 50-50 split for the senate with Harris being the tie breaker means nothing to him since he’ll no longer be president. I wonder who told got in his ear and made him go to Georgia? I could have sworn he wasn’t initially. 
Click to expand...
I have NO idea how this election will go but the one thing I’m more sure of than any other facet is this: there won’t be a split. I don’t see most voters splitting their vote. 

 
GordonGekko said:
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/georgia-secretary-of-state-investigating-voter-registration-group-run-by-warnock/

"The New Georgia Project, a voter registration group formerly led by Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Raphael Warnock, is under investigation for allegedly sending ballot applications to non-residents, the Georgia secretary of state said Monday.

Warnock was CEO of the group, which was originally founded by failed gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, until February. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced the group, and three others, are under investigation for improper registration activities.

While Raffensperger, a Republican who has been vocal in debunking President Trump’s claims of election fraud, said that he has not seen signs of widespread, systemic fraud, there is evidence of “third-party groups working to register people in other states to vote here in Georgia.”

Raffensperger said the New Georgia Project “sent voter registration applications to New York City,” in a potential violation of state law.

“Voting in Georgia when you are not a resident of Georgia is a felony,” Raffensperger said. “These third-party groups have a responsibility to not encourage illegal voting. If they do so, they will be held responsible.”"

*****

https://www.cbs46.com/news/georgia-secretary-of-state-says-group-sent-voter-registration-reminder-to-his-dead-son/article_bf5e5206-34ae-11eb-b466-4b8063c70ebc.html

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told reporters Wednesday that a voter advocacy group sent voter registration reminders to his dead son.

Raffensperger held up the postcards at a news conference at the Georgia Capitol. 

“Here’s something that came to our house yesterday. We got three of them all from the same organization. It’s to my son Brenton J. Raffensperger who passed away two years ago," Raffensperger said. "He is not on our voter files here in Georgia. We checked.”....

"Over the past several weeks, individuals in Georgia and around the country have reported voter registration solicitations sent by The New Georgia Project to individuals living out of state and people who have passed away. One Fulton County resident reported receiving 5 postcards from The New Georgia Project soliciting a registration “for the same dead person.” A Cherokee County resident received a voter registration solicitation from The New Georgia Project for his spouse who is ineligible to vote. A third complaint said The New Georgia Project sent a voter registration solicitation to his daughter who is not registered to vote in Georgia and had not lived in a different state for five years. A fourth individual reported receiving a “package of postcards” at her home in New York City from The New Georgia Project encouraging people to register to vote in the Georgia Senate runoffs.

Another effort, Operation New Voter Registration GA, encouraged Emory students to register fraudulently to vote in the January 5 runoffs. A flier from the group told students that “Your current residence can be another state. You are simply changing your state of residence now; and it can be switched back for future elections (your option).” To register to vote in Georgia, individuals must be residents of the state with no intention to leave.

Vote Forward, a nonprofit organization, sent a letter to a long-deceased Alabama resident, encouraging her to register to vote.

America Votes, which calls itself “the coordination hub of the progressive community,” sent two absentee ballot applications in one week to an individual at an address where they had not resided since July 1994."
Click to expand...
Don’t you know voter fraud doesn’t exist in this forum?.

 
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