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Georgia: the Battle for the Senate (1 Viewer)

I admit I do want to know why the counties in metro Atlanta starts faster with the counts, then totally stops reporting for awhile, then always are the last to complete.  You'd think it would be a steady flow, but it never is.  Not sure what the differences are that cause the data flow to be that way.
To make repubs cry.

 
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Randy Newman has a great song called “Wedding in Cherokee County.” But until tonight I had no idea where Cherokee County was. 
I think there’s also one in NC and maybe other states.  The southern half of Cherokee, where I live, will be changing like Cobb has the last 10 years.  The northern half is full of good old boys, Confederate flags and lots of Trump supporters.  

 
I admit I do want to know why the counties in metro Atlanta start faster with the counts, then totally stops reporting for awhile, then always are the last to complete.  You'd think it would be a steady flow, but it never is.  Not sure what the differences are that cause the data flow to be that way.
I heard it was because they had some of the mail-in ballots ready to go - not sure how accurate that is.

 
The issue is the counties in Atlanta still have lots left.  That vote dump came from North GA.  It actually shifted the odds even more to the D's because the raw margin wasn't as high as the targets.
Do they know what counties the mail in and early votes are in?   The ones still to be counted?

 
I admit I do want to know why the counties in metro Atlanta starts faster with the counts, then totally stops reporting for awhile, then always are the last to complete.  You'd think it would be a steady flow, but it never is.  Not sure what the differences are that cause the data flow to be that way.
They can open and scan absentee ballots before the polls close--they just don't release results.  Early voting results are also available relatively quickly.

 
I admit I do want to know why the counties in metro Atlanta start faster with the counts, then totally stops reporting for awhile, then always are the last to complete.  You'd think it would be a steady flow, but it never is.  Not sure what the differences are that cause the data flow to be that way.
The cynic in me just assumes urban areas hold back vote totals until they know how many votes they need   :tinfoilhat:

 
They can open and scan absentee ballots before the polls close--they just don't release results.  Early voting results are also available relatively quickly.
In fact, fir this election (as opposed to November), they are required to do so by a regulations change at the voting board. t least according to some dude on Twitter. 

 
They can open and scan absentee ballots before the polls close--they just don't release results.  Early voting results are also available relatively quickly.
Right, and I think that explains the initial dump.  I just don't get how Dekalb is sitting at 37%.  I think they started pretty quickly at 29%.

 
I simply installed a bunch of Firesticks on the backs of a bunch of the machines. I'll wait a couple hours and then simply call out to my Echo: "Alexa, steal Georgia Special Election"

Thanks Jeff Bezos.
Meanwhile the election lines took forever because some jack### was watching Netflix instead of voting...

ETA - edited out naughty words that I thought would have been censored automatically.   :oldunsure:

 
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If both Dems win here, I wonder if that changes tomorrow.  Will somebody back off the charade - like Cruz- thinking this charade has cost them the senate and further charade May cost more 

 
Next big election, the TV news networks should move to displaying Needle-like graphics including on the chyron instead of just updating raw votes and percentages over and over.

 
Do they know what counties the mail in and early votes are in?   The ones still to be counted?
I'm not sure.  I assumed the first dumps were the mail in and possibly some early votes with the election day later.  That is the opposite of say PA in the general election b/c they didn't start counting the mail in til election day.

 
I admit I do want to know why the counties in metro Atlanta start faster with the counts, then totally stops reporting for awhile, then always are the last to complete.  You'd think it would be a steady flow, but it never is.  Not sure what the differences are that cause the data flow to be that way.
Early and mail in votes counted first then day of election votes

 
I don't out much faith in these betting websites. Wasn't Trump highly favored much of election night?
Yes although they were more accurate than the polls leading up to the election.  To your point, they can get a little emotionally driven as the counting is done.  

It's up to 90% now, btw

 
I think there’s also one in NC and maybe other states.  The southern half of Cherokee, where I live, will be changing like Cobb has the last 10 years.  The northern half is full of good old boys, Confederate flags and lots of Trump supporters.  
There is one in Texas. 

 
If both Dems win here, I wonder if that changes tomorrow.  Will somebody back off the charade - like Cruz- thinking this charade has cost them the senate and further charade May cost more 
Tomorrow has always been about show, and not substance.

Trump is hoping a large number of supporters are gathered outside - and he wants to bask in their adulation.  And, many of the rogue congresspeople are hoping to hitch a ride on Trump coattails with said crowd,

 
Still can't believe this is possible. What a massive loss for Republicans thanks to Trump himself if it happens.

 
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The cynic in me just assumes urban areas hold back vote totals until they know how many votes they need   :tinfoilhat:
Yep.  I read that on the Internet, Tucker said it and, most importantly, President Trump confirmed.  So brazen of them to do it again so soon!

 
Still can't believe this is possible. What a massive loss for Republicans thanks to Trump himself if it happens.
IMO this is way more about the mail in ballots and Abrams' ability to get that established than it is Trump.  Go back in time and look at raw vote margins in those ATL metro counties.  Without that shift Perdue never comes close to facing a runoff and Loeffler would be winning tonight.

 
I'm not sure.  I assumed the first dumps were the mail in and possibly some early votes with the election day later.  That is the opposite of say PA in the general election b/c they didn't start counting the mail in til election day.
There is a significant amount of the early votes left to be counted (10% of total votes)  The Rs leading early votes counted so far, but, some of the predicting sites seem to think those remaining will come in heavily for the Ds.  Trying to understand if that's true or not.  

 
IMO this is way more about the mail in ballots and Abrams' ability to get that established than it is Trump.  Go back in time and look at raw vote margins in those ATL metro counties.  Without that shift Perdue never comes close to facing a runoff and Loeffler would be winning tonight.
But....Trump!

 
If both Dems win here, I wonder if that changes tomorrow.  Will somebody back off the charade - like Cruz- thinking this charade has cost them the senate and further charade May cost more 
I think they are already pot-committed.
I could see Cruz doubling down, calling for investigations into all 3 Georgia results.

Also, Loeffler gets to remain in the Senate for a few more days at least, so if she loses she will have no incentive to back off.

 
There is a significant amount of the early votes left to be counted (10% of total votes)  The Rs leading early votes counted so far, but, some of the predicting sites seem to think those remaining will come in heavily for the Ds.  Trying to understand if that's true or not.  
I think it's the fact Dekalb is sitting at 37%.  I mean are the doors shut and lights off there?  They started pretty much at 29%. 

 
I don't out much faith in these betting websites. Wasn't Trump highly favored much of election night?
There was a great story about a guy who cleaned up shorting QAnon theories on these sites.  Basically he'd hunt for weird bets, then go research to see if it was something being talked about on the usual suspect websites, and bet the other way.  Think @Otis in the FFA in 2012, but on a grander scale.

 
I don't out much faith in these betting websites. Wasn't Trump highly favored much of election night?
sort of.  the gambling sites preyed on Trump bettors who saw the initial votes come in and went nuts.   the sites couldn't make the odds bad enough to deter them from betting, so once they figured out that they could get Trump bettors to bite on anything, they cleaned up.   Maurile posted a good article about it last week.  I'll see if I can find it.

here's the story:  link

 
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There was a great story about a guy who cleaned up shorting QAnon theories on these sites.  Basically he'd hunt for weird bets, then go research to see if it was something being talked about on the usual suspect websites, and bet the other way.  Think @Otis in the FFA in 2012, but on a grander scale.
With or without the hawk screeches?  This is important.

 
Still too early to make a call in this race - but it is trending in this direction:

Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT · 2m

Highly respected Republicans who know Georgia think Ossoff prevails unless something really funky happens in DeKalb and Cobb

 

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