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Race for the 2020 MVP award (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ghost Rider
- Start date
sho nuff
Footballguy
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
At his current pace Derrick Henry will finish with 1,800 yards which would be the highest total for a rushing champ in six years.
He plays some pretty juicy match-ups down the stretch. If he goes into maximum overdrive for 150 yards per game he could hit 2,000 and I'm curious whether even that would be enough for the MVP. I'd hope so.
He plays some pretty juicy match-ups down the stretch. If he goes into maximum overdrive for 150 yards per game he could hit 2,000 and I'm curious whether even that would be enough for the MVP. I'd hope so.
Deamon
Footballguy
Probably not. Cook has more Yards, More TDs, and a higher YPC. All in less games. Cook isn't in the running because of the team record, but if an RB is going to win this year when there's so many great QB's, he BETTER have the top RB stats in the league. Henry does not.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Mahomes looks to me like he'll be the perennial frontrunner to win the MVP award. KC hit the lottery with that guy. And having Andy Reid as his coach certainly doesn't hurt.
Deamon
Footballguy
I'm just not sure I see a path for Rodgers to win it. Mahomes is 500 yards ahead of him with 5 games left... I really can't see Rodgers catching him. Rodgers may end up with more TD's, but Mahomes will have him in the Yards, Wins, and Turnover categories, and likely not be far behind (if at all) in TD's. Barring injury, Mahomes is winning it this year.
My predicted votes:
Mahomes 41
Rodgers 6
Wilson 2
Henry or Kamara 1
FUBAR
Footballguy
Agreed, turnovers and wins would be my deciding factors (assuming everything else is close).
As much as I'd like henry to win it, that won't happen unless he broke records (which is a really tall order at this point)
Deamon
Footballguy
I think that's irrelevant. If their stats are hypothetically exactly the same, I think the slight. edge goes to a 2 seed 15-1 KC over a 1 seed 13-3 GB.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Definitely feels like a 2-horse race now between Mahomes and Rodgers.
Wilson and Josh Allen are still good honorable mentions, but it's hard to argue for either winning it at this point.
Kyler Murray has dropped out of the race completely. Roethlisberger was never a realistic candidate, and he dropped big time today.
Wilson and Josh Allen are still good honorable mentions, but it's hard to argue for either winning it at this point.
Kyler Murray has dropped out of the race completely. Roethlisberger was never a realistic candidate, and he dropped big time today.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I live and die with Buffalo, but I really don't see how this goes to anybody but Mahomes. I'm happy that Allen is on the periphery of this conversation, but lets not overthink this.
FUBAR
Footballguy
It's huge that Allen is even in the conversation. Wilson isn't right now although he could get back into it.
Rodgers and Mahomes, statistically, are pretty close. I don't think there's any doubt that Mahomes has the better offense around him. And probably coach.
Right now I'd vote
1. Rodgers
2. Mahomes
3. Allen
HM. Watt, Henry, Adams
I want to put henry higher but without a presence in the passing game I just can't.
Baker mayfield could work his way into the conversation if he didn't already.
Arod has Jones and Adams, so it's not like there is a huge disparity in weapons between both teams.
FUBAR
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Top 3 leaderboards after wk13:
QB
ANY/A
8.93 Rodgers
8.91 Mahomes
8.22 Watson
DVOA
41.0% Mahomes
36.2% Rodgers
25.0% Tannehill
DYAR
1675 Mahomes
1371 Rodgers
1047 Tannehill
EPA
110.2 Mahomes
81.2 Allen
80.2 Rodgers
QBR
85.7 Mahomes
84.6 Rodgers
81.0 Brees
PFF Grade
94.7 Rodgers
93.3 Mahomes
91.1 Watson
Team Offense
OSRS
6.7 GB
5.6 TEN
5.6 KC
EPA
207.41 KC
180.69 GB
175.36 TEN
Off DVOA
31.1% KC
28.3% GB
21.6% TEN
Pts per drive (through wk12)
3.11 KC
3.06 GB
2.91 SEA
Yds per drive (through wk12)
45.25 KC
40.28 GB
39.95 TEN
Still Rodgers>Mahomes for me. Its probably a 2 man race now, unless they fall off a bit, and somebody like Wilson gets crazy hot.
I don't see Josh Allen as a serious candidate, much the same way I never saw Kyler Murray as one either. I think that is a case of fantasy stats putting thoughts in people's minds. Though Allen has been a better QB than Murray.
Still see OPOY as a race between Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce. Its about time a TE wins it. If/when Kelce breaks the single season yardage record, I'd think he should be the favorite. Don't really see a RB with a strong case, unless one of Cook/Henry really separates from the other in this final month.
I don't see Josh Allen as a serious candidate, much the same way I never saw Kyler Murray as one either. I think that is a case of fantasy stats putting thoughts in people's minds. Though Allen has been a better QB than Murray.
Still see OPOY as a race between Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce. Its about time a TE wins it. If/when Kelce breaks the single season yardage record, I'd think he should be the favorite. Don't really see a RB with a strong case, unless one of Cook/Henry really separates from the other in this final month.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I feel that there is some subconscious thing about Mahomes recently winning one..... in addition to winning a SB and a SB MVP ....so that is somehow held against him THIS year....it's like he has won one and is "probably going to win so many more down the road" ....sooooooo......."let's give it to somebody else".....the talk early was about Wilson and how he has "never won one"....so if it's close let's give it to him.....feels like we are really looking for reasons not to give it to Mahomes and bring back in somebody like Rodgers/Wilson or whoever....for sympathy sake almost.....and "Mahomes still has 10+ years left so he will get his".....Mahomes greatness is working against him as it's just the "expectation".....so he really has to blow people away to "earn" it...."weapons or coaches or even "stats" don't really matter in some respects.....dude is balling, and is so clutch it's not even funny......we almost take it for granted already....it's not fair not to give it to him cause you think he will win more later....
Mahomes is the most valuable player in this league...I think if you are being straight up honest, he really is the choice....IMO
Mahomes is the most valuable player in this league...I think if you are being straight up honest, he really is the choice....IMO
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Believe me, I'm a life long Bears fan, I hate the Packers, but even I think Aaron Rodgers is the MVP. It has nothing to do with holding anything against Mahomes, or looking to vote for someone else, I simply think Rodgers has been a better player. Its close, and could still very much go either way, but I think a similar logic to what you are using for people not wanting to vote for Mahomes applies to Rodgers as well. People wanted to write him off after a down season or 2, so people don't want to admit they were wrong about him.
I do agree, there were some pushing the issue earlier with wanting to give one to Wilson. I think that was more a Wilson thing, than an anti-Mahomes thing. I thought Wilson should have won it in 2019 over Jackson personally. Sometimes I think fantasy stats bleed to much into perceived NFL value. I think that was also the case when people were arguing for Kyler Murray earlier this year as well.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Mahomes with a measly 2 picks on 463 attempts is a stat not given enough credit. His starts against Baltimore and Tampa stand out more than anything I've seen from others, especially when you consider the way both those defenses were playing at that time. He has led KC to beat every out of division contender they've faced, (Bal, TB, Buf). That's something Rodgers can't claim. Now he gets to face two more quality teams with strong D's, Miami and the Saints. Rodgers laughs his way against one bad D after another to close out the season.
Mahomes over Rodgers IMHO.
Mahomes over Rodgers IMHO.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Rodgers might have passed Mahomes now, following the latter's 3 picks yesterday. Should be a fight to the finish.
Josh Allen and R. Wilson are comfortably 3a and 3b.
No one else merits discussion at this point, except maybe D. Henry and even that is a tough sell.
Josh Allen and R. Wilson are comfortably 3a and 3b.
No one else merits discussion at this point, except maybe D. Henry and even that is a tough sell.
Deamon
Footballguy
Mahomes: 4452 Yards, 35 TDs, 6 Turnovers, 12-1 Record
Rodgers: 3785 Yards, 41 TDs, 6 Turnovers, 10-3 Record
Rodgers narrowed the gap but I still go Mahomes based on the above numbers.
Rodgers numbers are better in my opinion. Better passer rating, better completion percentage, better td-int ratio. I've been leaning Rodgers for a while, and the numbers have caught up to what my eyes were telling me. He's the MVP, and having his 2nd best season of his career, and maybe best considering the supporting cast in 2011.Deamon said:
Offensive player of the year is Travis kelce to me. He's probably going to top 1500 receiving yards, shattering the single season TE record. I'm ready to put kelce in the HOF after this season. He's making a run at being the 2nd best TE ever in my eyes, if he can keep this up another couple years.
Defensive player of the year is Aaron Donald. I think voting anyone else is just trying too hard, especially as the rams are seemingly peaking at the perfect time.
Rookie of the year is probably Justin Herbert, though he has petered out a bit. More that I can't really make a case for anyone else. Maybe Justin jefferson if he finishes super strong?
Deamon
Footballguy
I mean you were leaning Rodgers even when mahomes was leading in all those categories you just mentioned up until this week? Haha.
Completion percentage is the same. And. Mahomes has quite a few more yards passing and a better team record which is a major factor in voting. If KC goes 15-1, no way Rodgers gets MVP over mahomes.
grateful zed
Footballguy
Kelce?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It will likely go to a QB, but IMO Tyreek Hill, Davante Adam’s & Derick Henry should all be in consideration for it. No Hill, what do Mahomes numbers look like? No Henry, what’s the Titans record? No Adam’s, what’s ARod doing with MVS & Lazard?
It’ll likely ARod or Mahomie at this point, but I don’t see either as any more deserving than those 3.
It’ll likely ARod or Mahomie at this point, but I don’t see either as any more deserving than those 3.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
Without Adams Rodgers has actually played without him a bit over the past two years. I believe the Packers record without him was pretty good. Including beating the Saints (a reason they now have the tiebreaker).
That said. Davante is fantastic and I don’t want them playing without him much at all.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I had both last year when Adam’s missed most of the year with his toe injury.
This year was a bit different though. MVS had hands of stone with a couple big games and Lazard had the core injury that knocked him out for a while.
I don’t see A-a-Ron’s numbers being close to where they are without DA in 2020.
Minority opinion perhaps, but I would vote Ryan Tannehill before Derrick Henry. I really don't think people realize how well Tannehill has played since becoming a Titan. He doesn't have the attempts that Mahomes/Wilson have, but he's every bit as efficient as they are. Lets not forget that Henry was kind of floundering in 2019, when Mariota was starting. Some may argue its a chicken/egg thing, but I think its obvious they'd be in much more trouble if they lost Tannehill than Henry.
Its interesting that you used Hill and Adams, as we have a great deal of evidence to what happens without them, and it was the QB's have lesser numbers, but it has a very small effect on wins/losses.
I think Kelce would be a bigger loss than Hill for KC. Some of that is that they have more depth at WR, and some of that is that Kelce is a superior player.
Yes I was, I don't place that much importance into certain stats, but the ones I do, all favor Rodgers right now. I'm an eye test guy, and that has favored Rodgers pretty much all season.
I know it does, but I don't think yards or record should be a big deal when it comes to voting for an MVP. Yards are a terrible stat to judge a QB by, they are more about play calling than anything the QB has done. Mahomes has about 500 more yards on about 50 more attempts. If Rodgers had 50 more attempts, maybe he has 5 more TD's than he has now.
Truthfully, I think the best player in the NFL this year has been Deshaun Watson, at least since O'Brien was fired, but obviously you aren't giving an MVP award to a guy who might be picking in the top-5 of the draft, or would be if O'Brien hadn't F'd that up too. Still Watson's shown that he is is good as anyone this year, and he's throwing to practice squad guys right now. I really would love to see Bieniemy end up there next year.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
If quality of opponents means anything, it makes Mahomes numbers that much better. Honesty, he's putting up similar numbers against better opposition. Aside from a week 3 win against NO, who has Rodgers guided his team to beat? Against TB and Indy, I see losses. All the wins against sub .500 teams, except for the 1 already mentioned in week 3. Mahomes has guided his team to 5 victories of teams .500 or better, with another tough contest against NO on the horizon. Many of those wins are against top-10 defenses as well.
When I look at the entire picture, I see Mahomes ahead of Rodgers, and not as close as some have it.
When I look at the entire picture, I see Mahomes ahead of Rodgers, and not as close as some have it.
You can only play who is on the schedule. As of Dec 14, PFF said it was neck and neck, with Rodgers having a slight edge at a grade that would tie Brady with the highest ever. Mahomes has 2 HOF receivers, while Rodgers only has one. Kelce might be the best ever at TE. It's close between 2 great QBs.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-breaking-down-the-neck-and-neck-2020-nfl-mvp-race-between-patrick-mahomes-and-aaron-rodgers
crushedspirit
Footballguy
When mentioning supporting cast, one must remember Rodgers has the 2nd highest graded pass pro. I've seen times where uber eats could have been ordered. Also, Rodgers cannot even compare when both are faced with pressure,
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Are we really holding supporting cast “against” guys....when it comes to this....Mahomes gets downgraded because he has nice weapons.....?....really?....you think he is less talented cause he has Hill and Kelce....dude throws dimes I could catch and put up 800 /5 ..And I’m 52 and fat....cause I think we are in here and IMO that just really isn’t fair...are we supposed to judge Mahomes somehow on “ if he didn’t have player X “...if Mahomes had Rodgers “weapons” he would still be dealing....he is the first pick by any GM right now even if Rodgers is same age...And dude has shown how clutch he is already....almost week after week....if its your team, who do you want in crunch time....?
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Gap widens as yet another top team goes down. Puts up 32 against an elite D who made him earn every yard. Saint's D was ferocious today, and put some serious hits on Mahomes, who was scrambling around almost every play. Any normal QB would have suffered mightily against that. The plays he made at crucial times was the difference, especially completing all those long 3rd downs and his timely runs.
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The Duff Man
Footballguy
Allen closed the gap a little. Looking at the updated strength of schedules season to date, both GB and KC have had a much easier schedule for QBs than Allen.
http://powerrankingsguru.com/nfl/strength-of-schedule.php
http://powerrankingsguru.com/nfl/strength-of-schedule.php
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crushedspirit
Footballguy
That SOS shows Mahomes has led victories against the 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 8th ranked teams. Nobody else has done that this season. I'm an Allen fan, but one cannot dismiss the mediocre performances that litter his season, (5 games under 80 passer rating). Also, he's turned it over 15 times so far, which is much more than the other two.
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Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
If he gets 450 yards over the next 2 games and Mahomes and Rodgers are underwhelming, you never know.
That'd be the all time rushing record. Hard to look past him if he's broken that record.
Deamon
Footballguy
Don't think he should get any. Remember, each vote is independent. If he gets votes, that means there are people out there who think he is the unquestioned #1 for MVP in their minds. I don't think he gets any MVP votes.
Deamon
Footballguy
Henry: 15 Games- 1793 Yards, 15 TD's.
Cook: 14 Games- 1833 Yards, 16 TD's.
Henry doesn't even have the best numbers of all the RB's in the league.
Jayded
Footballguy
The weird thing is the acrobatics talking heads jump through to justify their pick. I think it has to start with what MVP is supposed to mean.
If it’s “best player” I think it’s hard to argue against Mahomes. He’s great and others around him are great and he still makes them better.
If it’s most valuable to your team (ala what great player’s team falls apart without him and the team is enjoying great success because of him) that’s where it’d be harder to argue against Rodgers. He’s doing amazing things with unquestioned stats and with some good pieces, but not as many as Mahomes. Since they’re close, I give the nod on this lens to Rodgers because of the surrounding cast. This is also the lens where Henry could win a few votes.
If it’s “best player” I think it’s hard to argue against Mahomes. He’s great and others around him are great and he still makes them better.
If it’s most valuable to your team (ala what great player’s team falls apart without him and the team is enjoying great success because of him) that’s where it’d be harder to argue against Rodgers. He’s doing amazing things with unquestioned stats and with some good pieces, but not as many as Mahomes. Since they’re close, I give the nod on this lens to Rodgers because of the surrounding cast. This is also the lens where Henry could win a few votes.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah. This topic is the same argument every year. If they wanted it to be called the “best player award” then that’s what it would be called.Jayded said:
Packers would be 3-13 without Rodgers. Chiefs would probably still win 6-8 games without Mahomes, at a minimum, and might even make the playoffs. Pretty easy choice.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Claiming as fact that Packers win only 3 with that schedule sans Rodgers , is a stretch. No wins against Chi, Det, and Min in 6 tries? Then there's Atl, Hou, SFO, Jax, Phi, and Car outside the divison. No wins out of those potent 6 challengers? Chiefs don't beat Bal, Buf, TB, Mia, and NO without Mahomes. Again, 5-0 against these quality top-15 opponents. Rodgers, 1-2 against NO, TB, and Ind. Still, playing this "what-if" game comes down to guesswork for the most part. You can only select based on what is in front of you.
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One of the bigger MVP screw ups of the last 20 years was Adrian Peterson winning in 2012, just because he topped 2,000 yards. Manning and Rodgers were both better choices, and I wonder if they are looked at differently historically with another MVP. Especially Manning.
A RB winning MVP is basically silly. It's like an OL winning. The position simply isn't valuable enough.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Feels like Rodgers pulled ahead a bit again today. He had a fantastic game in the snow vs the 10-5 Titans, while Mahomes struggled mightily against the crappy Falcons. If the Packers win next week and lock up the 1 seed, I think Rodgers wins it.
